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RAMMB Scientific Quarterly Report - 4th Quarter FY11

Tropical Cyclone Research


  • Tropical Cyclone Product Development

    Progress continues toward the operational implementation of the new NESDIS Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product.  The product code and scripts have passed the initial software review after minor changes.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

    Research has begun to determine if the current empirically-derived tropical cyclone maximum potential intensity (MPI) predictor in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) can be improved by replacing it with a empirical/theoretical calculation.  Although the empirical MPI formulas used in SHIPS are accurately representing the upper bound of observed tropical cyclone intensities (Fig. 1), they are solely functions of sea surface temperature whereas MPI theory suggests several other atmospheric and oceanic parameters may also play a role in determining MPI.  Initial analyses, which were presented at the NOAA/NESDIS Cooperative Research Program (CoRP) 8th Annual Science Symposium in Asheville, NC on 17 Aug 2011, suggest that the observed intensity of 4% (7%) of Atlantic (East Pacific) SHIPS cases from 1982-2010 exceeded the theoretical MPI tested (Fig. 2), suggesting that a purely theoretical approach to calculating MPI for use in SHIPS may not be sufficient.  Further work is underway to diagnose under what environmental conditions tropical cyclones have exceeded the theoretical MPI with the hopes that a combination empirical/theoretical based SHIPS MPI predictor can be created and tested in SHIPS.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

    atl_valid.jpg

    epa_valid.jpg

     Figure 1.  Scatter plots of observed intensity (vmax, in kts) vs. sea surface temperature (deg C) for all Atlantic (left) and E. Pacific (right) ships cases from 1982-2010.  The black line in each plot indicates the empirical MPI, which is a function of SST only, currently used by SHIPS.

    trp

    trp1

    Figure 2.  Scatter plots of theoretical (Emanuel) MPI vs. observed intensity (vmax, in kts) for all Atlantic (left) and E. Pacific (right) ships cases from 1982-2010.  The black line in each plot represents where y = x.

    We have successfully implemented an LDM distribution of the Sounder Air Mass Area files to the SPoRT LDM server. This work is in support of GOES-R Proving Ground. (H. Gosden and J. Knaff)

    Two tropical cyclone products developed at CIRA, the Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis and the statistical intensity and wind radii estimate, use vertical temperature profiles derived from microwave data in their calculations.  For years, these soundings have been provided by a statistical retrieval method.  With the advent of the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS), the successor to NESDIS’ operational Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System, a more up-to-date retrieval package is available to provide the temperature soundings for the tropical cyclone products.  The two products will be generated with the statistical soundings and the MIRS soundings to compare the resulting wind speed differences.  It is expected that the use of the MIRS soundings will result in more accurate wind fields.  Coordination with NESDIS has been established to provide the satellite soundings, as well as radiosondes or dropsondes for ground truth.  Hurricane Irene will be used as the case for study. (J. Dostalek)

    The effect of large-scale vertical motion on tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is being investigated using an omega equation valid for the whole sphere.  As expected, the magnitudes of omega are quite small for easterly waves (typically 1-10 mb day-1 vs. 100 mb day-1 for a kinematic calculation), as they are typically in the region 10°-15° N.  Work was performed this quarter on how best to use this signal as a predictor of Atlantic cyclogenesis. . (J. Dostalek)

    The Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis product, which estimates the surface winds around tropical cyclones using only satellite-based information, was declared an operational product by the Satellite Products and Services Review Board (SPSRB).  The product can be found at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html (J. Knaff)

  • Tropical Cyclone Future Satellite Studies

    A number of products were created in real-time for GOES-R Proving Ground demonstrations at NHC, HPC and OPC.  Among these were a GOES sounder-based Air Mass RGB product, a MODIS-based simulated green Natural Color Product over global tropical cyclones, and a lightning-enhanced Rapid Intensification Index and Rapid Weakening index. RAMMB also coordinated Super Rapid Scan Operations (SRSO) calls to support the collection of rapid interval imagery over hurricanes. Calls were made over Tropical Storm Don, Hurricane Nate and Hurricane Hilary.  Table 1 provides local links the various products. (J. Knaff)

    In addition RAMMB continued to support products generated for the these Proving Ground Demonstrations by archiving the MSG-based RGB dust and airmass products and GOES-Sounder-based air mass product in NAWIPS format.  The MSG-based products were generated at SPoRT and the GOES sounder products were generated at CIRA/RAMMB.  SPoRT distributed all products via LDM and ftp in NAWIPS format. (J. Knaff)

    Table 1. 

    Product

    Location

    GOES-Sounder Air Mass

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/archive.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/sounder_airmass&width=1240&height=700

    Natural Color TC Imagery

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ under each active or archived storm since June 2011

    Lightning-juiced RII

    ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/nhcpg

    Super Rapid Scan TC cases

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/srso/

  • Tropical Cyclone External Interactions

    A. Schumacher and M. DeMaria traveled to Miami FL from 12-15 Sep 2011 to participate in GOES-R proving ground review at the National Hurricane Center (13 Sep) and to collaborate with co-investigators on a Joint Hurricane Testbed project to develop a disturbance-following TC genesis prediction scheme at Hurricane Research Division / AOML (14-15 Sep). (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

    J. Knaff visited the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).  While there he: 1) presented plans to develop and deliver new tropical cyclone intensity forecasting capabilities for the western North Pacific using the SHIPS/LGEM framework that has been so successful in the Atlantic/Eastern North Pacific; 2) discussed some collaboration and validation efforts; and 3) met with the GOES-R Proving Ground’s Tropical Pacific Testbed point of contact. (J. Knaff)

    J. Knaff and S. Businger (Univ. Hawaii) co-led a meeting on the upcoming Tropical Pacific Testbed.  Each proposed product was reviewed with WFO Honolulu and JTWC points of contact, the user list was updated, and the roles of participants were clarified.  This information will filter directly into the development of a more comprehensive Operations Plan. (J. Knaff)

    J. Knaff visited NRL Monterey and met with several tropical cyclone and ocean researchers, in particular B. Sampson and J. Cummings.  The purpose of the visit was to develop a work plan for collaborative research projects, which should lead to refereed journal articles. (J. Knaff)

    J. Knaff remotely presented  a training session (from JTWC) entitled “Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services” to the WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia on 13 September 2010.  The meeting was organized by J. Courtney (BOM).  The details of the workshop and the presentation can be viewed at http://www5.bom.gov.au/visitview/wmo-tc/index.htm.  (J. Knaff)

    R. Brummer, Don Hillger, and J. Knaff along with CIMSS, HRD, and SPoRT personnel presented training on products to be demonstrated during the NHC GOES-R Proving Ground Demonstration.  Products for this year are listed in the figure below.  The complete training can be found at ftp://ftp.cira.colostate.edu/Brummer/2011-07-27_NHC-ProvingGroundTraining/  (J. Knaff)

     

    tr1

    Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) data (10 hurricanes) were shared with R. Kovordanyi (Linköping University, Sweeden) who is a professor in the Department of Computer and Information Science and is interested in using the data for research in disaster management. (J. Knaff)

    A briefing was provided to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters via gotoMeeting and teleconference describing recent upgrades to their operational statistical intensity models and wind speed probability program developed by RAMMB. A recorded version was also generated for forecasters that were not able to attend. A new capability to automatically classify storms as tropical, sub-tropical, or extra-tropical was added this year, which was developed under GIMPAP support. The algorithm uses cloud top information from GOES in combination with model forecasts and ocean analyses in a three class discriminant analysis algorithm. Experimental products as part of the 2011 GOES-R Proving Ground, Joint Hurricane Testbed and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project were also summarized. (J. Knaff and M. DeMaria)

    The mid-project review of the GOES-R Proving Ground at NHC was held in early September in Miami.  Representatives from NHC, RAMMB, CIRA, HRD, and the GOES-R Program Office attended.  The project is going very well so far and no significant changes are needed.  (M. DeMaria and A. Schumacher)

Mesoscale Research


  • Mesoscale Research Product Development

    Monterey, California (MTR) has successfully added the NSSL-WRF synthetic ABI imagery.  The installation instructions were coordinated through the Western Region HQ, and we had a few troubleshooting sessions to get the data flowing.  (H. Gosden and D. Lindsey)

    The configuration files for adding the Visible NSSL-WRF synthetic ABI imagery was sent to Boulder, Colorado (BOU) office.  (H. Gosden and D. Lindsey)

    As part of the GOES-R Risk Reduction program, GOES sounder measurements of total column ozone were used in conjunction with an equation relating the total ozone to the vorticity at the tropopause (Vaughan and Price, 1991) for 12 Z 4 November 2010.  The vorticity was then inverted to get an estimate of the nondivergent winds at the tropopause.  The derived winds compare favorably to the mean 300-200 mb nondivergent winds as computed from GFS data.  As seen in the figure, the method captured the jet stream location over the Midwest and to the northwest of Oregon, and the wind speed minima over the Southwest and Gulf Coast states and the Great Lakes.  The structure of the wind speed over the eastern United States was not as well estimated, likely due to the cloud cover over the region.  In those regions GOES did not retrieve an ozone amount, and a climatological value of total ozone was used.  (J. Dostalek)

    Reference:  Vaughan, G. and J. D. Price, 1991: On the relation between total ozone and meteorology.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,117,1281-1298.  

    mrp

    mrp2
    mrp3

    Figure.  Upper panel: tropopause-level nondivergent wind speeds as derived from GOES ozone measurements, Middle panel: mean 300-200 mb nondivergent wind speed from the GFS.  Bottom panel: GOES infrared image showing cloudiness in regions where the ozone technique did not perform as well.  Wind speeds are in m s-1. 

    GOES Hail Probability Product:  Work continues on the GOES Hail Probability Product.  A verification was performed using data from 2010.  A subset of the data (20%) was withheld to be an independent dataset, and the remaining data was used to build the statistical hail prediction model.  The model was then applied to the independent dataset to generate hail probability forecasts.  The table below shows the number of “yes” and “no” hail reports for each grid box for certain ranges of probabilities.  (D. Lindsey)

    Probability Range

    Number Hail Reports

    Number No Hail Reports

    Number Hail Reports/Total Forecasts

    >=50%

    11

    22

    0.33

    40-50%

    10

    27

    0.27

    30-40%

    27

    68

    0.28

    20-30%

    60

    204

    0.23

    10-20%

    124

    759

    0.14

    1-10%

    767

    26340

    0.03

    0-1%

    854

    875250

    0.00097

    An abstract on the Regional Climatologies was written and submitted to the 2011 Cooperative Research Program(CoRP) Symposium.  It was accepted as a poster.  The poster was produced and presented at the Symposium in Ashville, NC on August 17, 2011. (C. Combs)

    Various MATLAB functions were tested for use with Principal Component Analysis (PCA).  It was decided that for the purposes of the solar energy project, using a combination of MATLAB’s cov (Covariance) and eig (Eigen Value) functions worked best.  (C. Combs)

    Matrices of solar data per day and time over the period of May-September 2006-2009 were processed.  The data consisted of different combinations of observed surface irradiance(Obs) data from Christman Field and the theoretical clear values(Clear) for the matching date and time. These included Obs alone, Clear-Obs, (Clear-Ob)/Clear, and SQRT(((Clear-Obs)/Clear)2). Also, the various data combinations were processed at difference time scales, including the original five minute, one hour average, three hour average, one hour running average, and three hour running average. Each data combination/time scale set was then processed through PCA. So far the analysis has not produce results useful for determining solar regimes.  (C. Combs)

    In discussions between Steve Miller, Matt Rogers, and Cindy Combs, it was decided to try using K-mean clustering to analyze the solar data.  First, each day was split up into three, 4 hour periods.  Then using the Clear-Obs data calculated above, the mean and standard deviation was calculated for each period.  Data sets containing the mean, standard deviation and the time period (1-morning, 2- midday, 3-afternoon) for each day were created.  The data set was then analyzed with the Kmean function in MATLAB using various numbers of clusters ranging from 4 to 10.  So far the results look promising in determining solar regimes.  Future plans include trying various time scales and analyzing the data compared to cluster centers. (C. Combs)

    Software for generating the visible/reflective Green band for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been shared with Shobha Kondragunta, to use in lieu of former methods applied to simulated ABI data.  With the Green band, true-color images are possible from ABI, and they have been shown to be faithful representations when compared to observed MODIS imagery.  (D. Hillger)

  • Mesoscale Research Future Satellite Studies

    New product ideas continue to be developed for the GOES-R Proving Ground.  Based on a suggestion by the Monterrey Weather Forecast Office, synthetic 3.9 µm imagery is now being generated in real-time.  Since the solar calculations are very expensive, we are assuming it’s always night time.  Using the 3.9 µm, we are also generating a synthetic fog product, which is nothing more than the difference between the 10.35 µm and the 3.9 µm bands.  The figure below shows an example of a fog product forecast.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

    mr

    Figure 1.  Simulated 10.35 µm band minus 3.9 µm (left) from the 15- to the 18-hour forecast of the NSSL-WRF-ARW on 13 September 2011.  This is also known as the fog product.  The color table is designed so that blue colors indicate clouds that are likely composed of liquid water, so they are often either fog or low stratus clouds.  The corresponding observed GOES-11 visible imagery is shown on the right for comparison.

    Work has begun in a newly funded GOES-R Risk Reduction Product whose goal is to improve 1-6 hour forecasts of convective initiation.  This is a collaborative effort between CIRA, CIMSS, UAH, NSSL, and CREST.  One of the first tasks is to choose a case study and generate GOES-R ABI data every 5 minutes (to match the time resolution of the ABI).  NSSL re-ran their WRF-ARW for this case and provided the 5-minute output to us.  We are currently generating the ABI bands.  Hourly bands are available, and the figure below shows the split window difference (10.35-12.3 µm) over a 4 hour time period.  Local maxima in the split window difference often point to the locations where convective clouds will form.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

    mr2

    Figure 2.  Simulated 10.35 – 12.3 µm from the 17-20-hour forecast from the 21 May 2011 WRF-ARF forecast.  Green to yellow to red shows increasing positive values of the split window difference, and clouds are generally blue.

    Algorithms that create natural color imagery over tropical cyclones has been created for the GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) demonstration at NHC.  These natural color images are created using adjacent MODIS granules, have a Rayleigh correction applied, are remapped to a 2-km Mercator projection and are posted on the RAMMB TC-Realtime website (http://rammb/products/tc_realtime/) along with other TC products.  Two images are created: the first uses an estimated green component using adjacent visible and near-IR channels, and the second uses the observed green component.  The estimation of the green component (see Hillger et al. 2011) demonstrates what will be possible with GOES-R and the second method allows for real-time evaluations of the synthetic green algorithm.   An example from 60-knot Tropical Storm Dora (2011) in the eastern North Pacific is shown below.  (J. Knaff, and D. Hillger)

     

    Description: 2011EP04_1KMSRRGB_201107191710_SYNT Description: 2011EP04_1KMSRRGB_201107191710_TRUE

    Figure3 : Example of natural color capabilities that will be available from GOES-R (top) where the green component is estimated compared to the natural color from MODIS visible imagery (bottom).  Image is of Hurricane Dora 19 July 2011 at 1705 UTC.  At the time Dora’s intensity was estimated near 60 knots/70mph.

    A breakthrough was made in the application of an expanded Look Up Table (LUT) for Green band generation.  Previously, the application of this LUT resulted in true-color/RGB images that were too green.  A problem was found in the application of the new LUT, in that the input reflectances from the Red, Blue, and Near-IR bands were being improperly scaled.  After literally months of on-and-off attempts to find the problem that was known to exist, it was solved after a concerted effort to dig into the code and run test cases to trace down the problem.

    The figure below is a summary slide of the true-color/RGB images for a MODIS test case.  Only the synthetic-RGB images are shown, as well as the absolute (reflectance) differences between the synthetic-Green band and the observed-Green band.  The large area of red on the left side in the lower-left panel is where the synthetic-Green band is too green, as seen on the left side in the RGB image in upper-left panel.  The differences/errors were especially noticeable for large zenith angles (on the left side of the images).  Now that zenith-angle problem is solved by using Rayleigh-corrected reflectances in the LUT.

    The bottom line, is that there are now two variations of the Green LUT method, which will be further tested, but from this case, it appears that the larger 250x250x250 LUT is producing better results and will become the default method to create synthetic-Green from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI).  The LUTs being used were trained on MODIS data by Steve Miller of CIRA.  (D. Hillger, E/RA1, 970-491-8446, Don.Hillger@noaa.gov)

    Description: 2002-06-28_two-LUT_RGB

    Figure: Synthetic-RGB (true-color) images using two different Look Up Tables (LUTs), one that is to be used with raw reflectances (top left), and the other to be used with Rayleigh-corrected reflectances (top right).  The Rayleigh-corrected version of the LUT performs better at larger zenith angles, as seen on the left side of the two left  images, either the RGB image (top left) or the reflectance-difference image (lower left), which shows a green bias (shaded in red).

  • Mesoscale Research External Interactions

     

    A close collaboration continues with Bob Rabin (NSSL) on a number of GIMPAP and GOES-R3 projects.  He visited CIRA in September 2011.  (D. Lindsey)

Training


  • VISIT

    Training metrics for the quarter:

    •  Teletraining:

    4 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 4 teletraining signups, 12 students participated.

    Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

                Registrations:  269

                Completions:  215

    LMS totals from January 2005 through September 30, 2011:

    Registrations5051

    Completions: 3175

    Definitions used in LMS metrics:
    Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
    Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

    Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

    • General applications of synthetic imagery for forecasting.
    • Southwest Cutoff Low and Henry’s Rule, see note below under research (J. Braun). 
    • The Analysis and Forecast of Severe Weather Associated with the Dryline (J. Braun).

    Research:

    • D. Bikos is lead author of a paper titled “Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High Resolution Model Evaluation.  The manuscript will be submitted to Weather and Forecasting within a month.  The paper deals with use of the synthetic satellite imagery generated at CIRA in collaboration with NSSL, which is a CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground product.
    • D. Bikos and J. Finch submitted a manuscript to the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.  The title of the manuscript is “Russian Tornado Outbreak: 9 June 1984”.
    • J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in ongoing research regarding analysis of satellite imagery, the Southwest Cutoff Low in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
    • Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.
    • J. Braun is collaborating with L. Grasso on combining the HYSPLIT volcanic ash dispersion model output with WRF-NWP output to generate new visible synthetic imagery for the GOES-R proving ground.    

    Collaboration:

    J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

    VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – (J. Braun) Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds.  The blog averages about 300 views per week.

    The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 30, 2011.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

     

    Sessions

    Number of offices attending (signups)

    Certificates Issued

    Participants

    Total

    1583

    6681

    17825

    23604

    Enhanced-V

    69

    211

    540

    540

    Detecting Boundaries

    12

    62

    226

    226

    Detecting LTO boundaries at night

    17

    67

    186

    186

    CONUS CG Lightning Activity

    16

    86

    285

    285

    Using GOES RSO

    26

    83

    263

    263

    Tropical Satellite Imagery

    8

    48

    138

    138

    GOES Enhancements in AWIPS

    9

    47

    109

    109

    Diagnosing Mesoscale Ascent

    21

    83

    252

    252

    Applying Mesoscale Tools

    5

    54

    202

    202

    Diagnosing Surface Boundaries

    24

    106

    307

    307

    QuikSCAT

    11

    42

    135

    161

    Lake-Effect Snow

    15

    64

    210

    262

    NDIC

    19

    40

    105

    107

    Lightning Met 1

    63

    331

    1129

    1377

    Precip Type

    5

    44

    186

    195

    Pattern Recognition to MRF

    10

    70

    277

    277

    HPC Medium Range Forecasting

    15

    101

    335

    335

    Ingredients based Approach

    36

    198

    626

    626

    Model Initializations

    20

    124

    440

    569

    NWP Top 10 Misconceptions

    27

    148

    532

    681

    GOES Sounder

    29

    122

    262

    350

    GOES High Density winds

    21

    71

    161

    161

    Forecasting MCS’s

    12

    84

    232

    287

    Mesoanalysis using RSO

    52

    181

    565

    702

    Near-Storm data in WDM

    14

    91

    340

    379

    POES

    6

    27

    63

    84

    Lightning Met 2

    43

    261

    731

    941

    Ensemble Prediction Systems

    17

    93

    303

    377

    Eta12

    14

    57

    194

    241

    Tornado Warning Guidance 2002

    13

    91

    355

    409

    Fog Detection

    11

    80

    264

    331

    ACARS

    13

    73

    204

    264

    Cyclogenesis

    77

    324

    1051

    1242

    TRAP

    5

    20

    66

    70

    Subtropical

    2

    15

    54

    65

    Mesoscale Banding

    8

    78

    302

    356

    Lake-Effect Snow II

    15

    52

    128

    179

    TROWAL

    37

    150

    368

    545

    Hydro-Estimator

    15

    58

    171

    221

    GOES Fire Detection

    17

    69

    205

    234

    GOES-12

    21

    76

    248

    299

    RSO 3 (Parts 1 AND 2)

    60

    228

    310

    861

    Water Vapor Imagery

    52

    219

    475

    699

    Mesoscale Convective Vortices

    42

    168

    435

    566

    AWIPS Cloud Height / Sounder

    11

    55

    128

    178

    QuikSCAT winds

    10

    37

    107

    110

    Convective Downbursts

    63

    216

    461

    764

    DGEX

    27

    215

    562

    785

    Severe Parameters

    16

    136

    324

    431

    Winter Weather (Parts 1 AND 2)

    52

    259

    267

    909

    Predicting Supercell Motion

    9

    103

    197

    274

    Monitoring Moisture Return

    14

    49

    127

    190

    Pulse Thunderstorms

    3

    48

    116

    190

    GOES 3.9 um Channel

    5

    17

    56

    77

    Gridded MOS

    18

    97

    147

    335

    MODIS Products in AWIPS

    40

    81

    213

    240

    CRAS Forecast Imagery in AWIPS

    24

    37

    47

    102

    Orographic Effects

    26

    63

    122

    208

    NAM-WRF

    14

    52

    59

    144

    Basic Satellite Principles

    22

    35

    63

    85

    Warm Season Ensembles

    24

    60

    87

    166

    Potential Vorticity + Water Vapor

    34

    98

    191

    258

    Cold Season Ensembles

    20

    64

    129

    233

    GOES Low Cloud Base Product

    14

    36

    57

    109

    Coastal Effects

    8

    15

    46

    53

    NHC Hurricane Models

    4

    18

    55

    55

    Interpreting Satellite Signatures

    20

    33

    34

    95

    Utility of GOES for Severe Wx

    22

    48

    93

    151

    NHC Track Models

    5

    23

    36

    78

    NHC Intensity Models

    5

    17

    35

    67

    Basic Sat Interp in the Tropics

    5

    6

    15

    17

    POES and AVHRR in AWIPS

    6

    10

    13

    112

    UW Convective Initiation Product

    13

    21

    34

    81

    Water Vapor imagery for severe wx

    5

    9

    3

    38

    UW Nearcasting product

    6

    7

    1

    18

    Atmospheric Rivers

    2

    7

    26

    26

    MIMIC TPW

    3

    5

    0

    14

    Synthetic Severe

    8

    6

    4

    40

    OST and Thermal Couplet

    1

    1

    0

    10

    Meetings and Calls

    J. Braun, D. Bikos and B. Connell attended an Internal GOES-R Proving Ground meeting on August 30, 2011.

    VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on July 28 and September 2.

    A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participated  in the NWS Satellite Operations and Applications Working Group (SOAWG – formerly SRSST) quarterly teleconference meeting as a subject matter expert.

    A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there.

    Other

    A proposed new look to the CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground products web-page was drafted http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/goes-r/proving_ground/cira_product_list/
    The web-page will be reviewed by external proving ground partners before implementation.  (D.Bikos, J. Braun)

  • SHyMet

    SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.
    Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

          Core courses:

      • Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
      • Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
      • GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
      • Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
      • Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
      • Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
      • Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

    Optional courses:

      • Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
      • The UW Convective Initiation Product.
      • Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
      • Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

    SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

    2  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered at CIRA this quarter (July  – Sept 2011) for the SHyMet Severe Development Plan.  (38 total for March 2011 through Sept 30, 2011)  6 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  8 having completed since its inception.

    SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

    Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm individual class/session breakdown through Sept 30, 2011 (for “online” training only).

    124 registered for individual SHyMet Severe modules for this quarter

    • 113 completed individual SHyMet Severe modules for this quarter
    • 261 total registrations for individual SHyMet Severe modules (for the period March 3, 2011 – Sept 30, 2011)

     Tropical SHyMet training course.  Began August 2010.
    Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

      • Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
      • Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
      • An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
      • An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
      • Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
      • ASCAT Winds
      • AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

     SHyMet Tropical Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

    0  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered at CIRA this quarter (July – Sept 2011) for the SHyMet Tropical Development Plan (13 total for August 2010 through Sept 30, 2011)  1 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  5 having completed since its inception.

    SHyMet Tropical – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

    Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Tropical individual class/session breakdown through Sept 30, 2011 (for “online” training only).

    • 34 registered for individual SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
    • 30 completed SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
    • 318 total registrations for individual SHyMet Tropical modules (for the period August 2010 – Sept 2011)

     SHyMet For Forecasters training course:  released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :

    This Development Plan includes:

    1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
    2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
    3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
    4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
    5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
    6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

    Optional modules

    1. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
    2. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
    3. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

    SHyMet For Forecasters Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

    1 NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (July – Sept 2011) for the SHyMet Forecasters Course Development Plan (33 total for January 2010 through Sept 30, 2011) 1 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  14 having completed since its inception.

    5 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA for the SHyMet Forecasters Course between January 2010 – Sept 30, 2011, including 2 this quarter.  There were no known completions this quarter.

    SHyMet For Forecasters – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

    Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Forecasters individual class/session breakdown through Sept 30, 2011 (for “online” training only).

    • 78 registered for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
    • 59 completed SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
    • 479 total registrations for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules (for the period January 2010 – Sept 30, 2011)

    SHyMet Intern course (Development Plan)
    The SHyMet Intern course continues to be offered online.  It consists of 9 modules
    (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

    SHyMet Intern Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

    12  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (April  – Sept 2011) for the SHyMet Intern Course – 293 total for April 2006 through Sept 30, 2011.  4 Participants completed the course this quarter for a total of 138 registered completions.

    0 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA this quarter for the SHyMet Intern Course. (34 total for April 2006 – Sept 30, 2011)  There were no completions this quarter.

    SHyMet Intern – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
    Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Intern individual class/session breakdown through
    Sept 30, 2011 (for “online” training only).

    • 198 registered for individual SHyMet Intern  modules for this quarter
    • 151 completed SHyMet Intern modules this quarter
    • 4073 total registrations for individual SHyMet modules (for the period April 2006 – Sept 30, 2011)

     

    ALL SHYMET: Total Registered through LMS since inception: 5131

                                Total Completed in LMS Since Inception: 3456

    Future

    Progress on new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:
    As of the December 13, 2010 meeting, the SHyMet team out of Boulder has taken the lead in developing the content of the course.  For content development, we will assist when requested.  When the content has been developed, we will assist with the logistics of adding materials to the web and the LMS

    New directions for SHyMet:
    In light of the recent developments for SHyMet for Hydrologists, we will refocus efforts to look at training with a focus on Aviation Weather Hazards.

    We plan to implement a GOES-R Proving Ground course which will be a common place to find all training related to GOES-R Proving Ground products. (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

  • Other Satellite Training

    A. Schumacher taught a COMET faculty course and lab on Tropical Applications of Satellite Data on 10 Aug 2011 at CIRA.  Approximately 24 university faculty participated in this session.

    Hiro Gosden and Debra Molenar attended the Face-to-Face Technical Interface Meeting (TIM) in Omaha, NE on Aug. 17-18, 2011. This was to get us, the PG partner developers, an understanding in AWIPS-II architecture so that we can begin developing new satellite capabilities.  (H. Gosden and D. Molenar)

    Hiro Gosden attended the week-long Red Had Systems Administrator I course in Denver, CO.  This was to acquire Red Hat Linux systems admin skills and knowledge to support the ongoing Proving Ground projects involving AWIPS and AWIPS II support that utilizes Red Hat’s Linux operating system. (H. Gosden)

    R. Brummer, Don Hillger, and J. Knaff along with CIMSS, HRD, and SPoRT personnel presented training on products to be demonstrated during the NHC GOES-R Proving Ground Demonstration.  Products for this year are listed in the figure below.  The complete training can be found at ftp://ftp.cira.colostate.edu/Brummer/2011-07-27_NHC-ProvingGroundTraining/

    Description: 2011-07-27_NHC-ProvingGround-Training_final2

    (J. Knaff, D. Hillger, and R. Brummer)

  • International

    Monthly International Weather Briefings
    The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for July, August, and September 2011) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ).   We used GoToWebinar for voice over the Internet.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, the International Desk at NCEP, CSU, as well as outside the U.S.: Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Great Britain, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Panamá, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Uruguay.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  Nine countries participated in July and August, and 7 countries participated in September.  The discussions were well attended with multiple participants at various sites.  A couple sites experienced technical difficulties with GoToWebinar each session, and we are happy to report that overall, everyone that joins in is able to hear clearly and stay connected.   During the August session, we were indirectly affected by the earthquake on the east coast as M. Davison had to evacuate the building minutes before the session started and was unable to participate.  Parts of the discussion focused on Hurricane Irene (August) and on Tropical Storm Maria (September).  In September, Mike commented that in Central America and the Caribbean and in South America, the weather patterns had rapidly changed to what we would expect in late October.  Participants provided comments about the local weather in their regions.

    intl

    Figure:  Screen grab during the August 2011 session showing the many windows utilized for monitoring the session and keeping it running smoothly: the VISITview image, product list, and status windows, and the participant list, chat, and control windows for GoToWebinar.  There is an additional web window to update on hurricane activity. 

    During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.

    Sharing of Imagery and Products
    Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 2-week archive feature:  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
    Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Infrastructure & Administration


  • Cal/Val and Satellite Check Out

    NPP “Science Test” Web Page: Somewhat like the GOES Science Tests that have taken place after the launch and successful orbit of each of several GOES, a similar web page has been started for the NPOESs Preparatory Project (NPP) “Science Test”.  The page will contain pertinent information on the checkout of the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) in particular, featuring the work of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)/StAR Imagery and Visualization Team that is headed by the NOAA/NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB.  See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/  (D. Hillger)

    Description: NPP_Science_Test

    Figure: Web page developed as a clearing house for information on the checkout of NPP VIIRS imagery at NOAA/NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB.

  • System Administration

    The new CIRA Collaborative Weather Lab move has been completed. The new lab now offers two 60” video displays from various weather analysis computers and more seating area during the daily weather briefings. (H. Gosden)

  • Publications, Presentations, and Awards

    line

    To Accepted and Submitted Publications        To Awards and Citations        To Presentations and Posters

    Published: 

    • Refereed

    Goni, G.J., J.A. Knaff, and I-I Lin, 2011: [The Tropics] Tropical cyclone heat potential [in “State of the Climate in 2011”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92:6, S132-S134.

    Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, C.R. Sampson and M.G. Seybold, 2011: An automated, objective, multi-satellite platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. J. of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 50:10, 2149-2166. doi: 10.1175/2011JAMC2673.1

    • Nonrefereed

    Accepted:

    • Refereed 

    Knaff, J.A., P. J. Fitzpatrick, C.R. Sampson, Y. Jin, and C.M. Hill, 2011: Simple Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure via Pressure Gradients. Weather and Forecasting.

    Miller, S., C. Schmidt, T. Schmit, D.W. Hillger, 2011: A Case for Natural Colour Imagery from Geostationary Satellites, and an Approximation for the GOES-R ABI. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

    Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2011:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

    Setvák, M., M. Radová, P. Novák, D.T. Lindsey, L. Grasso, P. K. Wang, Shih-Hao Su, R. M. Rabin, J. Kerkmann, J. Šťástka, Z. Charvát, and H. Kyznarová, 2011: Convective storms with a cold-ring shaped cloud top feature. Atmos. Research.

    • Nonrefereed

    Connell, B.H., D. Bikos, J. Braun, A.S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, A. Mostek, M. Davison, K.A. Caesar, V. Castro, L.Veeck, M. DeMaria, and T.J. Schmit, 2012: Satellite Training Activities: VISIT, SHyMet and WMO VLab Focus Group. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Csiszar, I., C.D. Barnet, R. Ferraro, L.E. Flynn, A.K. Heidinger, D.W. Hillger, A.Ignatov, J.Key, S.Kondragunta, I.Laszlo, and M.Wang, 2012: Overview of NPP/JPSS Environmental Data Products and Algorithm Development. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A. Schumacher, J.F. Dostalek and R. DeMaria, 2012: Applications of ATMS/CrIS Soundings to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Gurka, J.J., S. Goodman, T.J. Schmit, M. DeMaria, A. Mostek, C.W. Siewert, and B. Reed, 2012: The GOES-R Proving Ground: 2012 Update. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

    Hillger, D.W., T.J. Kopp, 2012: First Images and Products From VIIRS on NPP. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Hillger, D.W., and T. Schmit, 2012: GOES Science Tests: Results for the Last Two of the Current GOES Series. 18th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography and Climatology / First Joint AMS-Asia Satellite Meteorology Conference. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2012: Predicting where convective clouds will form with the GOES-R ABI. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Lindsey, D.T., T. Schmit, W. MacKenzie, L.D. Grasso, M. Gunshor, C. Jewett, 2012: The 10.35 micrometer band: A more appropriate window band for GOES-R ABI than 11.2?. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

    Mecikalski, J.R., D.T. Lindsey, C.S. Velden, B.L. Vant-Hull, and R.M. Rabin, 2012: Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

    Molthan, A., K. Fuell, H. Oswald, and J.A. Knaff, 2012: Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

    Reed, B., M. DeMaria, S.J. Goodman, J. Gurka, D. Reynolds, and C.W. Siewert, 2012: GOES-R Proving Ground – Demonstrating GOES-R Products in 2011 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

    Reynolds, D., M. DeMaria, S.J. Goodman, M.W. Johnson, and B. Reed, 2012: Data Fusion Demonstrations At the GOES-R Proving Ground Using Satellites, in-Situ Data and Weather Forecast Models. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

    red arrow

    Submitted:

    • Refereed 

    DeMaria, M., R.T. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, D.A. Molenar, 2011: Tropical Cyclone Lightning and Rapid Intensity Change. Mon. Wea. Rev.

    Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2011:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

    Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2011: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

    Vigh, J.L, J.A. Knaff, W.H. Schubert, 2011:  A climatology of hurricane eye formation.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

    • Nonrefereed      
  • Travel
    Traveler
    Destination
    Purpose
    Funding
    Dates

     

     

    M. DeMaria Norman, OK Southern Thunder Workshop HFIP 11-14 July
    M. DeMaria Juneau, AK OCONUS Workshop GOES-R 22-29 July
    M. DeMaria Monterey, CA ONR Marine Meteorology Program Review ONR 1-4 August
    M. DeMaria Washington, DC GIMPAP/PSDI Review GIMPAP 8-11 August
    D. Hillger Asheville, NC CoRP Science Symposium CoRP Base 16-18 August
    A. Schumacher Asheville, NC CoRP Science Symposium Task One 16-18 August
    C. Combs Asheville, NC CoRP Science Symposium Task One 16-19 August
    D. Molenar Omaha, NE Raytheon AWIPS Training CoRP Base 16-18 August
    H. Gosden Omaha, NE Raytheon AWIPS Training Proving Ground 16-18 August
    M. DeMaria Miami, FL and Huntsville, AL NHC, HRD visits and the GOES-R3 Review HFIP/JHT 12-23 September
    A. Schumacher Miami, FL NHC, HRD visits PSDI-TC 12-15 September
    J. Knaff Honolulu, HI and Monterey, CA JTWC and NRL interaction JHT 12-17 September

    A. Schumacher traveled to Asheville, NC 16-18 Aug 2011 to attend the NOAA/NESDIS Cooperative Research Program (CoRP) 8th Annual Science Symposium.

    A. Schumacher traveled to Miami FL from 12-15 Sep 2011 to participate in GOES-R proving ground review at the National Hurricane Center (13 Sep) and to collaborate with co-investigators on a Joint Hurricane Testbed project to develop a disturbance-following TC genesis prediction scheme at Hurricane Research Division / AOML (14-15 Sep).

  • Visitors

    Steve Apfel (MIC, Cheyenne), Nezette Rydell (MIC, Boulder), Jennifer Stark (MIC, Pueblo) and Paul Wolyn (SOO, Pueblo) visited CIRA on Thursday, September 15.  They were in town to give the CSU Atmospheric Science weekly seminar.  The ongoing GOES-R Proving Ground effort, including future product ideas, feedback mechanisms, and training efforts was discussed. 

    Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited RAMMB the week of September 2.  He is involved in a number of different projects with various personnel here. 

    Ralph Ferrero, the Branch Chief of the Satellite Climate Studies Branch and Sid Boukabara, JCSDA Deputy Director visited CIRA the week ending July 15.  Following their GPM meetings they met with CIRA and RAMMB personnel to discuss a number of operational and soon to be operational products and future sensor capability and plans.  Of particular interest to RAMMB personnel was access and details of the MIRS dataset which appears ideal for tropical cyclone technique development efforts.

  • Other Administration

    D. Hillger completed the requirements for access to simulated NPP data via two mechanisms. One was the GRAVITE Transfer Protocol (GTP), and the other was special permission to the same data via CLASS. NPP data were about to be displayed within a McIDAS-V environment. (D. Hillger)

    Diversity and EEO requirements via videos provided by NOAA were completed. (D. Hillger)

  • Other Training
     

    J. Knaff remotely presented a training session (from JTWC) entitled “Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services” to the WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia on 13 September 2010. (J. Knaff)

    All RAMMB NOAA employees completed the 2011 NOAA IT Security Awareness Course.  (D. Hillger)

    D. Hillger completed a Department of Commerce Foreign Travel Briefing, in preparation for a trip to the EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference.  (D. Hillger)