Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Dynamical Ensemble Based Wind Speed Probabilties

This project aimed to develop and verify an additional probabilistic wind speed exceedance algorithm that relies on the TC forecasts generated from global ensemble modeling systems. The current operational Wind Speed Probabilistic forecast algorithm is based on the Official track forecast and intensity, from which a statistical based ensemble of members are generated. Rather than utilizing an ensemble of tracks generated from monte-carlo methods, this project utilizes tracks, intensity and wind-field generated from the dynamical ensembles.

This should enable better characterization of uncertainty in the forecast or forecasts with spread that is not uniform around the mean, however global ensembles still have significant biases with respect to intensity. The project has investigated methods to correct for these biases and plans to publish results on methods and verification before the projects end.

Example outputs from current storms are shown inline below (if available). These are not bias corrected or calibrated at this time and are presented as an insight into how the dynamical global ensembles models represent the forecast rather than an accurate or reliable forecast.

Example Products from Active Storms


These environmental data and related items of information have not been formally disseminated by NOAA and do not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination, view, or policy.