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00:00:00:00 – 00:00:09:24
Speaker 1
Oh, Amarillo wee wee wee. It actually hoped to, had we not had this big storm, we were going to focus on Amarillo because you guys had a record snow last week. Clincher.
00:00:09:27 – 00:00:16:09
Speaker 2
We did. We picked up, right at a foot here in Amarillo at my house at 13 to 14in.
00:00:17:01 – 00:00:19:27
Speaker 1
Did you want to show anything or.
00:00:20:00 – 00:00:38:24
Speaker 2
You know, I don’t have anything prepared, but I’ll tell you what. We had just a really classic, mesoscale band that set up right over the Interstate 40 corridor. Right here over the airport here in Amarillo that dumped about three to maybe even 3.5in per hour rates for about three hours.
00:00:38:26 – 00:00:58:23
Speaker 1
Yeah. Very impressive. I thought one of the the neat things about your event too, was the, the P-w had a nice signal piece of the water, the blended parts of the water, kind of, we thought maybe somewhat of a subtropical connection. Or did you think that or.
00:00:58:25 – 00:01:12:09
Speaker 2
We’re. Yeah, we’re kind of discussing it here amongst our group of that group of three we have here. We didn’t really notice that as far as the subtropical connection, just really good fertile genetical for saying. But it could have been there may just not have noticed it.
00:01:12:17 – 00:01:20:15
Speaker 1
Okay. Well if you had a have a little something you’d like to show, we could try to fit you in at the end. Yeah. Just let us know.
00:01:20:18 – 00:01:21:00
Speaker 2
Okay.
00:01:21:14 – 00:01:43:15
Speaker 1
Otherwise, well welcome everybody. A pretty exciting storm, that we’d like to focus on today is in the East. And actually, I think I’m going to bring up the web browser. Just to give you a little background, I grew up here in Worcester, Worcester or Worcester, as they say back there. And this is the live webcam right now they’re having, I would say true blizzard conditions.
00:01:43:15 – 00:02:05:19
Speaker 1
I, I, checked earlier the winds were gusting, close to 50mph. That, was at the airport, but still it looks like it’s pretty nasty there. And and the snowfall amounts so far. Earlier Worcester came in was one of the highest at 25. And I was wondering if that was just, a lone report. But you can see these are some numbers from all around.
00:02:05:19 – 00:02:26:18
Speaker 1
Worcester is 25 to 26. And, boy, I’m trying to remember what their record is. Somebody else may know it. Actually, feel free to chirp in, by the way, anybody out there, if you if you want to say something, just interrupt. At any time, you can see Boston coming in at 18. Lots of high amounts on the Cape as well.
00:02:28:03 – 00:02:50:25
Speaker 1
I don’t know if, we won’t run through all of these, but, the biggest I’ve seen is Framingham is a little bit east of Worcester at 30in right now, and it’s still snowing very hard there. We also have, this in the form of a map, but some of this map, of a little bit, some of the amounts I think are old and, and you don’t get you can’t quite tell that just by looking at this map.
00:02:50:25 – 00:03:10:03
Speaker 1
But the one thing you can say by looking at this map is there is a huge gradient across Long Island, and that’s been be a lot of discussion about that because, of course, New York City was was forecast to get a little bit more snow than they got. But you don’t have to go very far to the east to get amounts that are right up there, around 20in on Long Island.
00:03:10:03 – 00:03:30:29
Speaker 1
So, it’s it’s been quite an event, so far. And it’s still ongoing. Let’s just minimize. Yeah, let’s go to what I thought we do is, is go over what’s going on now with some radar and some rapid scan. And then, State College, I believe, has quite a bit of things they might want to present.
00:03:30:29 – 00:03:36:14
Speaker 1
Is that true? You guys?
00:03:36:17 – 00:03:38:08
Unknown
I think we just had.
00:03:38:15 – 00:03:42:03
Speaker 2
Rich Graham made some graphics, but, let him talk to him.
00:03:42:05 – 00:04:00:14
Speaker 1
Okay, so I guess when Rich joins us, I know Scott Lindstrom in Wisconsin has, some things as well, so we’ll just kind of see how we go here. If anybody else wants to chip in again with anything, just let us know. So here’s the, let’s see if this is the latest. This is the, 16 D radar.
00:04:00:14 – 00:04:28:06
Speaker 1
We’ll kind of just step through this for the last few hours. I guess I should step right, because, you can. Oh, I can loop. Okay. I didn’t know if the bandwidth was an issue so earlier. It looks like it’s backed off a little bit, but there was a tremendous band. This is, what we have from it, at at 14 c but I noticed earlier this morning when I looked at Worcester up, I have a brother in south very southern New Hampshire, and I’m sure he’s just going going crazy with how good the snow is.
00:04:28:06 – 00:04:46:06
Speaker 1
I have a sister who actually hates snow, and she lives in Worcester still and was trying to get to Florida, but, couldn’t escape it. So, I’m the one who also loves snow a lot, but this band is kind of, either moved off or shrunk a little bit, but we can now see Boston had actually been eroding a little bit with some dry air moving in from the east.
00:04:46:06 – 00:05:06:27
Speaker 1
But we now see that there’s been, quite a, increase of snow there as well, with, some new action. And one thing we noticed that some of this, became has become a little more convective, that is moving in, now. And we’ll show that on another loop here. Coming up, by the way, winds have been incredible.
00:05:08:09 – 00:05:30:23
Speaker 1
There have been gusts, over hurricane force on Nantucket Island. And I understand that the entire island does not have power. And also, there have been some pretty serious flooding down there as well. Let’s go to, shall we? So we high res what’s called, rapid scan was called by the Boston, office late yesterday.
00:05:30:23 – 00:06:02:01
Speaker 1
So this is just a sample of that over the last, I think this loop starts at 13 Z, and it looks like it goes to five minute imagery, maybe, or around five minute energy at times. But as we were just saying one thing, you can, I think and everybody feel free to. Okay. And or whoever. But it looks to me, is this the, this looks like the surface low, kind of tightly wound right here to the east, southeast of Nantucket.
00:06:02:03 – 00:06:23:06
Speaker 1
And, one thing that we definitely see is more convective looking elements that are starting to rotate around, this this, low pressure and those are going to certainly come into Maine, but I think they’re also we are seeing, as we saw on the radar, starting to come in the eastern ness. And so the big forecast issue, I think, for today also is how far west do these get?
00:06:23:06 – 00:06:31:20
Speaker 1
Do they get back into Worcester? I think probably so. But there certainly will actually be a sharp boundary to the western extent of these.
00:06:31:23 – 00:06:53:03
Speaker 2
Yeah. Yeah. But Tony. Yeah. And you can also, I guess, say that I don’t know how unusual it is that it’s not moving along all our fast to follow the center of the circulation there. It doesn’t look like it’s moving. So I guess I’ve, I heard somewhere where they’re saying it’s only moving. Almost kind of drifted north, maybe only around ten miles an hour or something like that.
00:06:53:03 – 00:06:53:23
Speaker 2
But it’s a slow.
00:06:53:23 – 00:07:12:07
Speaker 1
Mover, right? Right. And, that was actually a little bit of some disagreement, I thought, in the models yesterday, especially the European seem to hang back the low a little bit more. Other models were moving it a little faster to the north. So yeah, that’s a, that’s a key as well, how fast this thing moves.
00:07:13:09 – 00:07:38:28
Speaker 1
Let’s switch to one other loop here. Dan, we have a, I r loop, and unfortunately, I have some lightning from yesterday, but I don’t, we don’t have it on our system this morning, and I can show some yesterday. But we can see last night that we had more of a classic, you know, the we have the strong conveyor belt or warm conveyor belt precip.
00:07:38:28 – 00:08:02:03
Speaker 1
Well off to the east, but then we have a large area wrapping back here and then back into, into New England. And now, as we just been noticing, you know, earlier with the visible, we can see this breaking up into more, convective elements. And so there’s going to be some very heavy, snow banding still going on, and then and then pockets of quite intense snow.
00:08:02:03 – 00:08:14:19
Speaker 1
You would think, as this, continues to evolve, anybody else want to add anything to this? As if brand has to report like Brian, do you have any lightning stuff that you, yeah.
00:08:14:20 – 00:08:52:12
Speaker 2
Let me make a comment first. You’re. I are a little appears to be missing, quite a few images. The the heavy snow band that’s set up overnight was along the, the defamation zone on the back side. And, that really set up that band initially. And then the, there were several other bands that moved on shore, but, in effect, caused the buildup or intensification of that band as those bands moved on shore.
00:08:52:15 – 00:09:18:08
Speaker 2
So there was sort of a limiting, I think of it as a live main stream line on the backside of that system, because the, bands that were moving onshore to, result in that a heavier, central Massachusetts, location for that, heavy snowfall. And it actually extended down into, eastern, a Long Island for a time.
00:09:18:09 – 00:09:39:29
Speaker 1
Oh, absolutely. Did. Yeah. One thing that and any again, input for the move any anybody else is welcome. But one thing that might have limited that Western side is certainly, I think that what struck me is how sharp the boundary was between extremely heavy snow and then some folks not getting very much like Albany in in New York getting more modest amounts.
00:09:39:29 – 00:09:56:07
Speaker 1
But then just east on Long Island, you know, quite a lot. And maybe there was, you know, there was a lot of drier air. And you can see actually in this area, some extreme cold air to the north. And that probably worked its way into the backside of this. And, and that kind of limited the Western extent of this.
00:09:57:06 – 00:10:05:02
Speaker 1
Of this, precipitation. Now, how you know that in advance? You know, obviously varied amongst the models, but, yeah.
00:10:05:02 – 00:10:29:22
Speaker 2
Well, that’s the motivation for calling an RSL for this kind of an event because you get a different, much different picture than just the radar depiction alone. So, so that was one thing. And the other thing was the in terms of total lightning, they keep track of the lightning, overnight on the, Earth network streamer, I.
00:10:29:24 – 00:10:31:10
Speaker 1
Tell you that that and.
00:10:31:24 – 00:10:58:11
Speaker 2
Between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. East coast time, there were a couple dozen, total lightning, indications, right, of the Cape Cod Canal in the in the vicinity of buzzards Bay. And the Cape can now, that was that was it. So they were in terms of, the coastal area, that was all there was for lightning.
00:10:58:26 – 00:11:23:20
Speaker 2
And total lightning. And the Weather Channel, showed one cloud to ground, lightning strike, which I assume is from, the, vice of Fiji, the NLP and network, and they show that about, 7:00 mountain time. So, I mean, 9 a.m., East Coast time.
00:11:23:22 – 00:11:39:04
Speaker 1
Yeah. Yes. Yesterday, of course, as the storm was developing, I, I don’t know if we’ll have time to show it, but, maybe rule this afternoon. I have some imagery wet. And there was a lot of lightning, of course, as the storm was developing over the Gulf Stream farther south. Brian, here’s an image from.
00:11:39:07 – 00:11:40:26
Speaker 2
That was in the warm conveyor belt.
00:11:40:26 – 00:11:51:02
Speaker 1
At right. Right. It was also behind the storm in the convection, though, the cold, you know, as the cold air behind the cold front, you could actually see quite a lot of, lightning activity.
00:11:51:04 – 00:12:02:05
Unknown
And then there was lightning in that convection that south east of Cape Hatteras in this picture, the system also had a lot of lightning as it came across Mississippi and Alabama on Sunday. So that was one.
00:12:02:05 – 00:12:09:00
Speaker 2
Indication that there was a lot of energy associated with their particular system before it got out over the ocean. Right.
00:12:09:00 – 00:12:30:01
Speaker 1
I, I assume that that lightning behind it you were talking about, Scott is also, you know, reflection of how cold the air is aloft with this, trough. Brian, here’s a we have some images like at seven C what would you point out here? Satellite wise, this is what folks would have had to go for from the eye.
00:12:30:03 – 00:12:37:20
Speaker 1
Are you or would you like to point out some things on this or this happens to be at 07Z.
00:12:37:23 – 00:12:38:16
Speaker 2
The image you have.
00:12:38:16 – 00:12:41:24
Speaker 1
Up now. Yeah. You were saying, the first.
00:12:41:24 – 00:12:47:19
Speaker 2
He was the bear clinically yesterday when the, when the system was developing.
00:12:47:21 – 00:12:52:01
Unknown
And and, and communicating with
00:12:52:04 – 00:13:21:18
Speaker 2
The folks at the Boston BSO that they were, they were interested to, see that in the regular imagery and then, I think that resulted in the, the so call to be able to follow what was going on with the storm, farther up the coast, out of radar range, in order to keep tabs on the, the that the the more, explosive part of the development.
00:13:21:20 – 00:13:49:01
Speaker 2
So that was one thing. The other thing, you and Scott already mentioned about the the, convection to the south there. Well, off, off the Carolina coast. So, it’s still it’s still, an interesting event as there’s, so probably several hours more snow, accumulating snow to go, than, southern New England and eastern New England areas.
00:13:49:01 – 00:13:58:21
Speaker 2
So, certainly, long duration events that, is an area this to me.
00:13:59:03 – 00:14:06:10
Speaker 1
Okay. Thanks, Brian. We’re trying to see if Richard’s on Richard Graham, are you on?
00:14:06:12 – 00:14:09:27
Speaker 2
Yeah. The number in the email doesn’t match the number that Tony put on the screen. I’ve been listening.
00:14:09:28 – 00:14:24:21
Speaker 1
To waiting and waiting. Oh, wow. Okay. To hear anything is that I’m pretty much a non-entity in this call. Well, you had a whole bunch of stuff you sent to Brian. Did you want to show any of that? Or if you have time. I have no clue what you talked about. I just saw your screens go by.
00:14:24:25 – 00:14:35:23
Speaker 1
Well, we just kind of gave an update as to what’s going on now. Reviewed some satellite imagery overnight. And I’ve talked in some detail about that. It looked at the rapid scan a little bit.
00:14:35:25 – 00:14:41:25
Speaker 2
Yeah. Brian, would you mind? Brian gave his little thumbnail description of how the satellite has been helping.
00:14:41:28 – 00:14:43:16
Speaker 1
I thought Brian just did. Tony.
00:14:43:18 – 00:14:54:14
Speaker 2
Yeah, but for Rich. Oh. Oh, I can share what I have. I but I don’t you don’t go back all the way over here, okay.
00:14:54:17 – 00:15:06:20
Speaker 1
Well I, I would be inclined to, if it’s okay with everybody to let rich since you dialed in and to, show us rich, we have about 14 minutes or so. So, so rich. Me. Okay, if I make you the presenter.
00:15:06:22 – 00:15:09:01
Speaker 2
I.
00:15:09:03 – 00:15:17:02
Speaker 1
Thanks. Unless, again, I open it up to Amarilla. If you have anything you’d like to share, let us know. And we can squeeze a few minutes at the end and.
00:15:17:04 – 00:15:23:05
Speaker 2
Yeah, we just have a couple of, what would actually be our Facebook posts that have some radar images on there. And we would like to show.
00:15:23:05 – 00:15:33:25
Speaker 1
Okay. Hey. Hey, Rich, can you take maybe about, we’ll try to say five minutes at the end here. So maybe ten minutes. Is that okay? Can we set that up? Okay, well, you don’t have to be. That’s good. Go ahead.
00:15:33:27 – 00:15:58:09
Speaker 2
Fix it. I just put together some images based on the ensemble, and, and if I can advance my screen. Okay, here we go. This is just it, but I took, like, six rows from the center ensemble forecast. This is, I guess some a forecast perspective. I hate to think that what I found a couple of things I find worrisome.
00:15:58:09 – 00:16:14:16
Speaker 2
One is when you’re on the edge of a system, you always got to be cautious of the, the inherent uncertainty and the problems of over forecasting or under forecasting. You have to be mindful of the probabilities. And clearly, I don’t know these forecast. I, I have no idea how people come up with the numbers I came up with, but I didn’t make the forecast.
00:16:14:16 – 00:16:32:23
Speaker 2
I was at home, you know, with the pleasure of looking at my computer. So and it’s clearly looking at single models. It’s hard to believe that 2015 people bias the forecasts of single models, because that was pretty clear that and so this has happened. So last year that 16 year forecast valid at 12 this morning show where the cycle is going to be.
00:16:32:25 – 00:16:55:27
Speaker 2
And the upper right panel is, is the front of zero is the other 24. I think everybody got excited on Sunday because the cycle of a jog to the, to the on the 25th and 12 in the 24th and the 25th, the cycle again jogging towards the with more easily flow the gradient here over the over the southeast coast in Long Island into new Jersey.
00:16:55:29 – 00:17:00:04
Speaker 2
And that’s what everybody that’s whatever. So they get excited. I get on Sunday for the deep low.
00:17:00:07 – 00:17:05:21
Unknown
But I’ve been forecasting for like a real long time. And I know that it’s up smiles always when it’s higher. An Arctic front.
00:17:05:21 – 00:17:23:16
Speaker 2
Coming in from the north up the models always a little bit too far north and west with the storm. And I actually can know that anybody was on the Albany map. So these are the wave forecast. You can see as the storm jog towards the coast, the high winds the -5 to -6 sigma new when the is moved into the coast.
00:17:23:19 – 00:17:45:14
Speaker 2
And I guess it’s got really people kind of excited. What you said it was one of the few events that we had really had good excess areas where you could see the green colors. We have six Sigma U with, but at first it was offshore of the 24, and then it came rapidly into the coast. And actually, if you look at the highest winds, where it wasn’t too dissimilar to where the heaviest bands actually ended up setting up wasn’t a bad forecast in terms of, you know, the large overall pattern.
00:17:45:20 – 00:18:16:06
Speaker 2
This is a threat and shorter range, but you can see that it’s still extremely strong. I’ll when into New England and down over east of Long Island and a lot of six cycle winds, which are very common in the models, especially of 21 members. So this is an extra 25 millimeter. I call it a PDF, the probability distribution function, because it’s not really a part, but people treat it like a PA and you can see, just oh, look, look at the 21, these 24, January.
00:18:16:06 – 00:18:22:11
Speaker 2
Right. You can see there was a lot of uncertainty on the western edges. And how many people on this call on the Albany map?
00:18:22:13 – 00:18:24:27
Speaker 1
I am rich, Eric.
00:18:24:27 – 00:18:40:02
Speaker 2
Right. I just put out a really interesting post on the Albany map last night where I guess they’re running a parallel them. And apparently because of some I think you said the QS privatization or something in the the Nam, they know it has a wet bias on the west side of cyclones on the east coast. I read that last night.
00:18:40:03 – 00:18:41:19
Speaker 2
Also my chair. Did you read that it.
00:18:41:19 – 00:18:59:03
Speaker 1
I did, you can. I mentioned something about the Nam, though. But yesterday’s nam had a horrible minimum. And I see this in these two minimum in central Massachusetts, which obviously is totally wrong because Worcester is now getting absolutely pounded. So I.
00:18:59:03 – 00:18:59:12
Speaker 2
Don’t I.
00:18:59:12 – 00:19:00:14
Speaker 1
Don’t know how to explain it. Right.
00:19:00:15 – 00:19:04:28
Speaker 2
I think, which is that if you look at the map, I think Worcester is actually in the distance at 25. You look.
00:19:04:29 – 00:19:06:13
Speaker 1
The current world know.
00:19:06:16 – 00:19:23:11
Speaker 2
It’s like 200. That’s that little notch. So that this notch here. Yeah. That’s just that’s the I think that’s the erroneous position of the Connecticut Valley. You know, I think Springfield about 50 miles west of that, point. I think that’s the erroneous position of the, Connecticut Valley effect.
00:19:23:13 – 00:19:33:13
Speaker 1
Okay. What rich would you say of, looking at these forecasts? The the western extent into New York City is probably the the biggest issue here. Yes.
00:19:33:16 – 00:19:53:05
Speaker 2
And I, I’ve been on the Albany map for years and I’ve been do a case study that whenever you’re on the edge of a storm, you get it’s really you got to be you have to be very patient. And you can see this is a 25 millimeter, one inch contour. And the probability, you know, this is the oldest forecast, you know, the in the mean, it was a 25 millimeter contour away to the west.
00:19:53:05 – 00:20:16:06
Speaker 2
And we now know that because that’s an area in the Nam itself. And the core is probably dead. This. But but even so the probability is like in the 40 to 60% once you got the other side of New York City. So, that this is telling information here that this is a 50 millimeter contour. And, you know, I know people are really big on it, on SLR, which I always thought was a camera lens, but apparently it’s the no liquid water ratio stuff.
00:20:16:06 – 00:20:38:11
Speaker 2
And, you know, people apply all this crazy math. But if if I have a crappy qpf number, the last thing I’ll do is multiply by a big SLR number. But you can see the probability of getting like 50mm of of or more just two inches of snow, which does by rule says it’s, you know, ten to, you know, 10 to 1 that 12 months like a 20 to 24 snow, but really low probability event.
00:20:39:07 – 00:20:59:29
Speaker 2
So based on the wild up to Cape Cod and up to the Boston area and, this is the black dot, all these images, the lat long, Islip, New York. So the people on the edge of the storm and the north, the northern, the western edge is like this is a tough and and if you hit this throughout, you probably, you know, if you use the separately you, you should have put out two feet of snow, about two feet of snow.
00:20:59:29 – 00:21:21:19
Speaker 2
And it was a very low probability outcome. I actually did a 75 millimeter contour. It’s not even worth showing on the website. So this is your follow me qpf. And I dare anybody to show me this is I, this is a 75 millimeter. Contours are the little colored dots and you can see occasionally like, but you can see there’s Denver, Colorado is a couple times a substrate.
00:21:21:19 – 00:21:29:02
Speaker 2
Never put a colored, dot over, over, Islip, New York, you can see the, the colors out of Iceland.
00:21:29:04 – 00:21:33:09
Unknown
But basically the probability of more than two mil.
00:21:33:11 – 00:21:51:07
Speaker 2
25mm of 50mm of precipitation was really low. And if I go to the GFS, the GFS at the same. You can see the early forecast shows it’s going to be mainly, you know, an eastern New England storm. And then it starts to back the probability back up. And it kept Long Island in the high higher probabilities like over 90% chance.
00:21:51:07 – 00:22:12:26
Speaker 2
But you know all of new Jersey something or Western Massachusetts, they were all on the edge of the storm and and you know, if you if you use the uncertainty information, there was a lot of uncertainty in the storm that could have been leveraged. And I think I never quite understood the 24 to 36 inch snowfall, images and graphics that was being put out because it was the extreme high end and I have no idea.
00:22:12:26 – 00:22:13:23
Speaker 2
I didn’t work.
00:22:13:25 – 00:22:18:29
Unknown
I wasn’t on any call phone calls. But I think Priscilla’s out here. Maybe she worked at her, but.
00:22:19:01 – 00:22:24:12
Speaker 2
How people came up with, you know, graphics that actually showed 2 to 3ft of snow escapes.
00:22:24:12 – 00:22:29:21
Speaker 1
Makes up rich. The only trouble is it’s going to verify in a number of places. It already has. It’s going.
00:22:29:21 – 00:22:34:13
Speaker 2
To verify. It’s going to verify. From from like extremely small.
00:22:34:13 – 00:22:36:01
Speaker 1
Island up through Worcester.
00:22:36:01 – 00:22:55:25
Speaker 2
And and if I showed you the 75 that I did there, there’s some there was the highest probability of three inches of precipitation or more ran up from like, you know, the yesterday the Long Island up through like Rhode Island in Massachusetts. Yes. There was some study. We knew that that was an outlier, though. And those were like the high end.
00:22:55:25 – 00:23:13:22
Speaker 2
And if you were going to go, that was the only area. But to have if you ever saw the snowfall graphics that show the 24 to 36 inch snowfall areas, they were huge and they were well into the they were extremely far out of the West. I mean, I guess the tempered forecast, seeing what the possibilities were. But, you know, I work for the National Weather Service.
00:23:13:24 – 00:23:24:19
Speaker 2
Anybody who looked at Philly or okay, access forecasts or huge areas covered by 24 to 36 and know that those are going to end up being the outliers. I think on the high, on the highest I’ve seen is 25in of snow in Mattituck.
00:23:24:27 – 00:23:40:01
Speaker 1
Yeah. Hey, Richie. Here, let me, let me let me just throw this out, though. I kind of like the trend in that last when you were showing and how it it, it brought more, you know, the higher probabilities into, into eastern where it has fallen essentially.
00:23:40:06 – 00:23:51:10
Speaker 2
By the way, these graphics and 1280 today, these were. Yeah. Or 24, I think like 24, 30 hour windows. And it’s still snowing up there. So it didn’t go the whole range of event. You could pick different windows.
00:23:51:13 – 00:24:10:12
Speaker 1
Right. But in defense of, of say predicting more if, if, if an office thought and, and and rightly so that there might be a lot of banding you would well hey there, you would say, that, that certainly the sheriff is not as high. It’s not going to capture some of this banding with it.
00:24:10:16 – 00:24:15:06
Speaker 1
It has lower resolution than other models. Correct. Yeah. There’s I yeah, but yeah.
00:24:15:06 – 00:24:27:27
Speaker 2
This this is a threat from nine Z on Sunday. It was all over the place actually showed some mix. Yeah. So when the snow is going to fall it really shows like you know 1 to 2ft. It was probably a realistic forecast for feet with nuts.
00:24:27:29 – 00:24:33:09
Speaker 1
Hey. So this is, one for Islip. Do you happen to have the one for New York City? I don’t have.
00:24:33:09 – 00:24:37:28
Speaker 2
One for you. No, I don’t, I don’t I do have very limited set that they’re very limited computer resources.
00:24:38:01 – 00:24:40:29
Speaker 1
Let me ask you a question. Yeah. Again. Lindsay, what’s that something?
00:24:40:29 – 00:25:04:25
Speaker 4
Yeah. So I know you’re not allowed to put out these probabilistic forecasts as part of your grids, but is it allowable for a point, forecasts, say, in New York City to say something like 6 to 36in or just have a massive range, because in this case, it seemed like a justified forecast in New York City? Yeah. I mean, because that’s essentially what the envelope of this ref was saying even yesterday was, it could be as low as five and it could be as much as 40 or something.
00:25:05:03 – 00:25:22:15
Speaker 2
Well, here’s I guess like I said, it was six to about 20, you know, just using 10 to 1 for a first cut. 27. I think people use a lot of put a lot of faith in the snow, liquid water ratio up to the get the higher numbers. So I always tend to want it. I never want to multiply a crappy number by another crappy number.
00:25:22:20 – 00:25:23:19
Speaker 2
So I that’s.
00:25:23:19 – 00:25:30:18
Speaker 4
My own opinion. But are they allowed? Do they allow you to make huge ranges? Is what I’m asking. Or do you? I don’t I don’t think, I don’t think it’s.
00:25:30:18 – 00:25:35:20
Speaker 2
A rule for against it. Most people just human preference as we like to know our ranges. Right.
00:25:35:22 – 00:25:38:23
Speaker 4
Okay. Thanks.
00:25:38:25 – 00:25:42:21
Speaker 1
Here we go in the next game. Does anybody else have anything,
00:25:42:24 – 00:25:45:09
Speaker 2
Can you, I’ll throw a couple things on the moisture.
00:25:45:09 – 00:25:52:23
Speaker 1
And some scouts. Okay. We’re going to go maybe just a few minutes longer. So we’ll Amarillo a time at the end if that’s okay with you guys in Amarillo.
00:25:52:25 – 00:26:15:27
Speaker 2
Texas. So yeah, any time I hope you can see my screen. I’m showing a, animation of total precipitable water that’s derived from the various microwave instruments, because this was an event that, you know, typically you don’t have moisture problems for, storms on the East Coast, but you can see the moistening there as the storm wraps up.
00:26:16:07 – 00:26:17:20
Speaker 2
It never really gets.
00:26:17:22 – 00:26:22:27
Unknown
Too far to the east. There. And then at the very end there, we see it wrapping back.
00:26:23:09 – 00:26:29:23
Speaker 2
Toward the, toward Massachusetts at the very end of this animation. So, this kind of microwave imagery.
00:26:29:25 – 00:26:36:00
Unknown
Can give you some nice information about will there be sufficient moisture for the.
00:26:36:00 – 00:26:51:21
Speaker 2
Snowfall totals? And I wanted to show you a couple of other things. I’ve been looking at a satellite with this particular system. This is the air shot from two three this morning. So it kind of shows you where the storm was. And it has some really good information.
00:26:53:12 – 00:27:08:16
Unknown
Okay. I just got to pick out, So I had some really good information. Yesterday’s also showed some nice northerly winds at zero C and A, you know, the southwesterly winds starting at three c. There should be a really nice.
00:27:08:24 – 00:27:10:02
Speaker 2
Pass at.
00:27:11:00 – 00:27:13:09
Speaker 1
Oh, that’s a nice one. Right there. And this is from yesterday.
00:27:13:09 – 00:27:35:04
Speaker 2
Afternoon just before 15 C. So it’s going right down the East coast for the east Scott Windsor it’s not showing you, you know, a definite center quite yet but it’s certainly showing where the circulation is taking place. So I saw a lot of images. I saw a lot of well, not a lot. I saw some graphics yesterday that said the storm is forming south of Cape Hatteras.
00:27:35:14 – 00:27:44:20
Speaker 2
The air Scout really doesn’t support that. At least not from this particular not from this particular scan. So you have a Scott in your Awacs imagery?
00:27:45:04 – 00:27:51:05
Unknown
It’s something you can look at every day. And if there’s something forming along the coast, it can really give you some nice information.
00:27:51:05 – 00:28:01:19
Speaker 2
So that’s, that’s about all I wanted to say about this. So look at Ascot in this. And microwave imagery will give you some good information about, the how the moisture.
00:28:01:19 – 00:28:19:20
Speaker 1
Is evolving with time. Scott, that microwave imagery was pretty neat because, there had been a storm, of course, Saturday. Right. And that cleared the whole all that moisture well off the coast. But you can see it actually actually just blossoming and along the Gulf Stream as it I guess, as the dynamics of the next system move in.
00:28:19:24 – 00:28:20:03
Speaker 1
Right.
00:28:20:03 – 00:28:24:15
Speaker 2
So they suddenly, yeah, suddenly and the moisture is coming back. So it’s interesting.
00:28:24:18 – 00:28:39:15
Speaker 1
Because it helps to have an ocean, but, yeah, that’s that’s really nice imagery. Anybody else? Otherwise, I think we were going to switch to Amarillo, and then I might have one last thing to show at the end. Oh. What’s that? This is just.
00:28:39:15 – 00:28:40:04
Speaker 2
A night band.
00:28:40:04 – 00:28:48:08
Unknown
And this is set me up from 60 for showing the day night band, the, lightning. So there are some lightning strokes in there.
00:28:48:10 – 00:28:50:09
Speaker 2
It’s showing up in the day night band.
00:28:50:12 – 00:28:51:04
Speaker 1
So,
00:28:51:07 – 00:28:53:03
Speaker 2
And then also the just the infrared imagery.
00:28:53:03 – 00:29:01:09
Speaker 1
So do you want to explain that the, the viewers, of course, as much what’s the resolution that we’re seeing on the viewers? This is one kilometer imagery.
00:29:01:09 – 00:29:05:15
Speaker 2
So let me I guess I can I can do that. I’ll zoom in a bit.
00:29:06:00 – 00:29:09:20
Speaker 1
And the day night band, the day night band is visible imagery at night.
00:29:09:20 – 00:29:13:00
Speaker 2
It’s looking at reflected lunar illumination. There’s not a lot because.
00:29:13:04 – 00:29:20:01
Unknown
The the moon. I can’t remember what the face of the moon is, but we’re just coming out of it. Coming out of a new moon. But you do see some.
00:29:20:01 – 00:29:36:09
Speaker 2
Lightning strikes in the day night band. They show up with smears, and then you see the lightning that is also indicated with the, lightning that’s in a whip. So there is occasional lightning offshore with this particular system. And then we have the color enhanced infrared, the 11.4 or 5 micron there also.
00:29:36:09 – 00:29:53:29
Speaker 1
So thanks, Scott. And any last thoughts on this before we shift to Amarillo? And it was actually a very impressive event in Amarillo. You guys want to do we want to turn it over? Yeah, yeah. Something to show. Yes. They do. Yeah.
00:29:54:01 – 00:29:55:26
Speaker 2
Yeah. So I have a few slides to show here.
00:29:55:28 – 00:29:57:14
Speaker 1
Todd. Right.
00:29:57:17 – 00:29:58:00
Speaker 2
Yes.
00:29:58:01 – 00:29:59:18
Speaker 1
Okay. We’re turning it over to you.
00:30:00:01 – 00:30:01:06
Speaker 2
Okay. Do you.
00:30:01:06 – 00:30:03:03
Speaker 1
Want to. Oh, you see.
00:30:03:03 – 00:30:13:15
Speaker 2
My screen? Yes. Okay. See, timing precipitation. Wednesday. I got two monitors here, so let me know if that’s the monitoring you’re seeing.
00:30:13:17 – 00:30:14:28
Speaker 1
We are seeing time. Yes.
00:30:15:00 – 00:30:38:21
Speaker 2
Okay, great. Yeah. I didn’t have anything prepared for today, but, it was a fascinating storm. We had, last Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. And this, I didn’t have anything made specifically for this call. This is actually a slide from one of our, briefings that we gave to our emergency managers on Wednesday or Tuesday, actually, looking out, this is the, Texas Tech University wharf.
00:30:38:21 – 00:30:58:13
Speaker 2
It’s a three kilometer wharf model generated here at, Texas Tech University in Lubbock. And, you know, just to give them an idea of how the storm system might evolve, we’d like to show us a simulated reflectivity from their system so they can see kind of the general onset of precipitation ending. And, this would be, 7 a.m. Wednesday.
00:30:58:13 – 00:31:23:15
Speaker 2
That was the 21st last Wednesday, 4 p.m., and then going out at the time, you can see precipitation becoming real widespread. It started out as rain here locally in the Amarillo area and then transitioned to snow about, rush hour 4 p.m. or so, 4 to 5 p.m.. And then, we just had light snow that was melting on most of the, you know, concrete asphalt surfaces, through much of the evening.
00:31:23:26 – 00:31:57:15
Speaker 2
And, on Wednesday evening. But, then, midway evening, we had the development of a very intense, mesoscale band. I mean, you get, Are we looking at radar there, or are we looking at, you’re looking at a low light. Okay, you’re looking at model output of simulated reflectivity. Okay, thanks. Now, let me go over here to some of our, these are some of our Facebook posts that we were putting out in real time that showed, you know, radar updates as well as traffic cams from around the area.
00:31:57:18 – 00:32:22:05
Speaker 2
And, and this, this one about 6:23 p.m., we started to just initially see this band forming to the north of Amarillo, went east or west all the way across the Texas Panhandle. And there were additional enhancements in the radar data, reflectivity data moving in from the southwest. And if we look at this over time, that was another graphic throughout their safety message.
00:32:23:00 – 00:32:44:02
Speaker 2
This really converged into one single frontal genetical band that just sat, right over our Interstate 40 corridor that runs east to west, right through the central Texas Panhandle. So right over the office here at the Amarillo airport. And we saw a very intense, flow. At this point, we we were only getting about one inch per hour rates.
00:32:44:02 – 00:33:03:21
Speaker 2
This was at 945, but between roughly 10 to 1030 and probably 1 a.m., we were seeing three to 3.5in per hour rates within this band. And like we mentioned here in Amarillo, we picked up, one foot of snow officially at the airport on my, my house on the southwest side of town. I got about 13 to 14in.
00:33:03:24 – 00:33:24:02
Speaker 2
That was pretty calm. And here’s another image of the band, that just sat right over the Central Panhandle. Or if anything, just gradually shifted towards the south, during the overnight hours. And there you see it, over the southeastern panhandle, now to the southeast of Amarillo, by 2 a.m..
00:33:24:04 – 00:33:43:09
Speaker 2
And if I keep going here, I’m sure we have some. There’s a picture of our office. And then, this is a this is the total. This is a, map showing the storm totals across the area. MRO really got got nailed. We were kind of, ground zero for this storm about, 12 to 14in there on the south side of Amarillo.
00:33:43:12 – 00:33:50:08
Speaker 2
And you can see lesser amounts over the eastern and northeastern Texas Panhandle, about 2 to 4in or so.
00:33:50:11 – 00:33:54:28
Speaker 1
And in perspective, how does this, rank in, in a in a snowfall in January?
00:33:54:29 – 00:34:12:03
Speaker 2
This was the the 11th snowiest day in Amarillo history. Just but as perspective, we get about 18in on average per year. And we picked up a foot with this one. I think currently the season worried about 17.5in. So we’re right at average for the season already.
00:34:12:06 – 00:34:14:02
Speaker 1
And it’s March your snowiest month.
00:34:14:02 – 00:34:21:29
Speaker 2
Or you have or had it snows. And we do see a high frequency of heavy snow in March. I think that is correct. Yeah.
00:34:22:01 – 00:34:31:08
Speaker 1
Okay. That that’s that’s a great stuff. And, one last thing on the Facebook. Is it, popular? Is it useful? What do you think?
00:34:31:10 – 00:34:58:04
Speaker 2
Oh, extremely popular. We had a blizzard in 2013, and we reached, several million people. And that’s in a CWA where we only have a total population of 400,000. So, so we have had tremendous success using Facebook here. It’s, very popular during the storms, I believe. You know, I think we are right. Currently ranking about third per capita for Facebook, likes, you know, per capita relative to population across the country.
00:34:58:06 – 00:35:16:11
Speaker 2
I noticed there are 121 shares on this particular image, so that’s pretty impressive. Yes, yes. And that’s actually I would expect more. But yes. But what do you think your population was about 400,000 total. So 110 two divided by ten is a five. I think that’s a pretty small number.
00:35:16:14 – 00:35:39:05
Speaker 1
Yeah it’s there so I can get it ready just. Oh yeah. Just a quick want to show what we’re recording for. Recording. Okay. Okay. Well that’s that’s great. Thanks a lot. And you’re welcome to chime in this afternoon too, if you’d like. And 130 at 130. Mountain time. Okay. And, you know, we’ll definitely leave you some time.
00:35:40:06 – 00:35:57:27
Speaker 1
I, I just wanted to show one one last thing. If I can quickly find it here, I put together a whole bunch of stuff yesterday, but only because Scott was showing that one image. I believe that was around 15 Z. Scott. And you were noticing that it was kind of an a dated looking thing on the Scott.
00:35:58:18 – 00:36:16:13
Speaker 1
It’s got this is the, rap, analysis at that time and the lightning with of his image. And you can kind of see it. It also still just appears to me, anyways, that this would be an a long dated looking system that is just starting to get its act together. Three hours later, things were consolidating quite a bit.
00:36:16:13 – 00:36:33:04
Speaker 1
And then three hours later than that, you see, lots of lightning here. And then again, is that lightning behind the cold front over here? But this lightning in this conveyor belt getting getting closer and closer to the coast. And I think that’s probably the stuff that Brian was talking about overnight. I think we probably got a little long.
00:36:33:04 – 00:36:39:10
Speaker 1
So, any any last words from anyone?
00:36:39:12 – 00:36:53:04
Speaker 1
Well, thank you all very much. This has been, a fun, a fun, briefing this morning. And, and again, anyone interested at 130 this afternoon, we’ll do another one and we can show similar or, some different updates as well.
00:36:53:06 – 00:36:58:19
Speaker 2
I’m just this is Scott. I just looked at the 1513 a Scott and it goes right over the system. So there’ll be some.
00:36:58:19 – 00:37:01:12
Speaker 1
I’ll show some nice imagery this afternoon. Okay. Very good. Scott.