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As part of the AMS 2020 Annual Meeting Satellite Short Course, we want you to put yourself into the shoes of a National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Specialist.
As part of your shift at NHC, you will help create Advisory #14.
To be successful, you will need to use satellite imagery and derived products from the GOES-R and JPSS series of satellites that we’ve discussed in the course.
We will be creating Advisory #14 (5 pm AST forecast; 21 UTC). We are working on two key elements to this forecast:
Here are some key takeaways from the Advisory #13 forecast discussion.
As you step through the current products, think about whether the product is good for
If you are unsure, many of the pages link to Quick Guides. Feel free to explore those or ask.
Keep track and use the information to inform your forecast.
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion
Forecast Advisory 13: 1100 am AST (15 UTC)
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.
3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian’s potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
Previous Forecast – Advisory 13: 1100 AM AST
5-day Forecast Track, Initial Wind Field and Watch/Warning Graphic
Most Likely Time of Arrival of 34kt Winds
GOES-16
* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 74 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 55 56 58 62 68 76 86 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 10 12 12 17 8 9 4 9 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 279 217 229 228 242 239 275 247 299 250 336 317 346 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 151 149 149 149 156 154 159 163 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 149 146 146 142 140 139 144 140 144 146 145 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 44 45 49 56 60 60 62 62 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 8 6 6 6 6 7 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -6 6 7 2 2 3 2 -10 -40 -31 -35 15 -4 200 MB DIV 27 17 26 39 32 0 -3 18 4 41 14 42 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 3 3 5 9 2 6 4 -8 0 2 LAND (KM) 357 439 394 269 159 34 25 148 312 383 401 170 -43 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 26.8 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.4 63.5 64.6 65.6 67.5 69.1 70.6 72.4 74.2 76.2 78.4 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 39 43 62 76 61 46 46 88 52 50 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ———————————————————- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ———————————————————- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 19. 20. 23. 24. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 61.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities —————————————————————————— RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 —————————————————————————— SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 35.0% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 32.3% 31.7% 26.4% 8.5% 17.7% 15.5% 14.8% Bayesian: 3.4% 23.7% 24.3% 1.7% 1.3% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% Consensus: 9.2% 30.3% 26.4% 9.4% 3.3% 16.7% 5.9% 5.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 61 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 57 57 60 61 64 65 71 57 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 51 51 54 55 58 59 65 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 41 44 45 48 49 55 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 78 83 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 51 54 58 65 74 84 92 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 11 12 14 8 10 3 9 2 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 2 -3 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 170 202 217 244 251 256 288 257 223 273 38 297 230 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 147 152 152 157 156 159 166 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 148 147 139 141 141 144 141 143 147 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 45 45 51 57 60 63 64 70 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -8 -6 -1 -1 -9 -31 -37 -34 10 7 27 200 MB DIV 22 42 40 16 4 1 33 10 30 26 30 27 46 700-850 TADV 1 0 6 5 7 4 6 1 4 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 477 396 261 137 44 87 123 278 465 523 322 116 2 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 19.2 20.7 22.3 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.6 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.1 65.1 66.2 67.9 69.4 70.9 72.5 74.5 76.9 79.1 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 42 61 80 62 59 45 52 67 50 50 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ———————————————————- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ———————————————————- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 62.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities —————————————————————————— RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 —————————————————————————— SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 37.8% 26.0% 16.6% 14.5% 22.1% 22.3% 21.7% Logistic: 17.7% 32.1% 30.1% 27.5% 10.6% 21.0% 15.6% 21.4% Bayesian: 5.1% 11.9% 25.0% 2.0% 1.3% 6.3% 1.8% 0.4% Consensus: 10.4% 27.3% 27.1% 15.4% 8.8% 16.5% 13.2% 14.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 50 53 56 60 64 68 71 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 44 47 50 54 58 62 65 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 39 42 46 50 54 57 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
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The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Visible Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for IR Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below
Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
The enhancement is in an AWIPS procedure. Follow these steps:
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Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
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Screenshot image of this color enhancement below
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| -10.2 to -31.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | F |
| 1 to 124 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | F |
| 125 to 165 | 255 | 14 | 10 | 61 | 53 | 52 | I |
| 166 to 203 | 62 | 58 | 53 | 109 | 244 | 111 | I |
| 204 to 214 | 1 | 255 | 255 | 0 | 41 | 255 | I |
| 215 to 220 | 239 | 189 | 235 | 252 | 35 | 71 | I |
| 221 to 230 | 255 | 158 | 3 | 255 | 219 | 171 | I |
| 231 to 254 | 64 | 70 | 135 | 154 | 196 | 244 | I |
Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| 1 to 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | F |
| 41 to 117 | 69 | 68 | 1 | 195 | 192 | 1 | I |
| 118 to 125 | 253 | 71 | 71 | 150 | 47 | 47 | I |
| 126 to 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 0 | I |
| 139 to 147 | 200 | 200 | 0 | 138 | 110 | 21 | I |
| 148 to 165 | 124 | 89 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | I |
| 166 to 188 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 236 | 236 | I |
| 189 to 190 | 227 | 227 | 227 | 204 | 204 | 204 | I |
| 191 to 194 | 99 | 149 | 199 | 83 | 131 | 182 | I |
| 195 to 204 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 239 | I |
| 205 to 214 | 1 | 99 | 1 | 2 | 239 | 2 | I |
| 215 to 224 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 0 | 0 | I |
| 225 to 231 | 255 | 251 | 3 | 155 | 36 | 1 | I |
| 232 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | F |
| 233 to 234 | 99 | 98 | 72 | 99 | 98 | 72 | F |
| 235 to 244 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 97 | 97 | 97 | I |
| 245 to 254 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 51 | F |
Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| -10.2 to -31.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | F |
| -32 to -35.1 | 55 | 57 | 173 | 24 | 220 | 226 | I |
| -35.1 to -37.5 | 24 | 220 | 226 | 37 | 221 | 53 | I |
| -37.5 to -40.4 | 37 | 221 | 53 | 227 | 242 | 111 | I |
| -40.4 to -44.1 | 227 | 242 | 111 | 75 | 75 | 75 | I |
| -44.1 to -50 | 75 | 75 | 75 | 7 | 199 | 247 | I |
| -50.2 to -52 | 255 | 50 | 85 | 255 | 191 | 213 | I |
| -52.2 to -53.9 | 86 | 35 | 137 | 192 | 142 | 242 | I |
Designed for Water Vapor Satellite images.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| 1 to 182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 255 | 255 | I |
| 182 to 254 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 0 | I |
Designed for Visible images. This shows more details at cloud top level in deep convection during the mid-day hours. The images are brighter, so that this is particularly useful during the winter season, or anytime near sunrise and sunset.
Alternative: Substitute a value of 235 instead of 255 so that clouds don’t appear quite as bright, this may appear better or worse depending on monitor settings.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| 54.5 to -24.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 255 | 255 | I |
| -24.5 to -29.5 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 255 | 255 | 0 | I |
| -30 to -40 | 255 | 255 | 0 | 94 | 94 | 0 | I |
| -41 to -50 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 0 | 0 | I |
| -51 to -55 | 230 | 0 | 230 | 190 | 0 | 190 | I |
| -56 to -60 | 0 | 73 | 122 | 0 | 157 | 203 | I |
| -61 to -65 | 0 | 255 | 0 | 137 | 137 | 0 | I |
| -71 to -75 | 178 | 178 | 178 | 68 | 68 | 68 | I |
| -76 to -80 | 0 | 82 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 180 | I |
| -81 to -85 | 255 | 0 | 126 | 157 | 0 | 80 | I |
| -86 to -109 | 225 | 225 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 0 | I |
Designed for IR Satellite images during severe weather. This curve is based on the CIRA IR enhancement but with greater resolution in the colder temperature range. This will aid in viewing the enhanced-V IR signature.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
| Temperature | RGB values for first number | RGB values for second number | Fill or Interpolate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red | Green | Blue | Red | Green | Blue | ||
| 54.5 to 43.5 | 247 | 0 | 16 | 243 | 220 | 0 | I |
| 43 to -20 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | I |
| -20.5 to -39 | 11 | 113 | 115 | 15 | 255 | 255 | I |
| -40 to -109 | 243 | 0 | 247 | 55 | 0 | 185 | I |
Designed for IR Satellite images. The warm end of the curve (red to yellow) is designed for fire detection. The remainder of the curve highlights the cloud tops colder than -20, used for water/ice cloud discrimination.
Screenshot image of this color enhancement below.
Note: If you do not want to write over your existing satDepictKeys.txt in fear of earlier modifications not working, simply change lines that begin with the numbers 106, 116, 136, 806, 906, 916 and 926 to look like the ones in satDepictKeys.txt above. If localImageStyle.txt exists already, you can simply append the content of localImageStyle.txt above into your existing file.
Below left shows the default fog product, below right is how the fog product will appear based on the modification.
These are links for the 2019 Joint Satellite Conference Short Course (29 September 2019) Located at The Westin Boston Waterfront Hotel.
Agenda. All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).
These are links for the 2019 NOAA/NASA Satellite Meteorology Summer Workshop – ‘JPSS’ (11 July 2019)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) is located in Fort Collins, CO
**All times are Mountain Daylight Time (MDT)**
These are links for the AMS Short Course: Using JPSS Data Products to Observe and Forecast Major Environmental Events (6 January 2018)
**All times are Central Standard Time (CST)**
830-840am: Welcome and introduction of speakers (Christie Best) – Video Presentation – Best
840-915am: Overview of JPSS Program (Mitch Goldberg) – Video Presentation – Goldberg
915-930am: Use of JPSS to support NOAA operational mission (Dan Nietfeld) – Video Presentation – Nietfeld
930-1000am: Introduction to JPSS data and products and their scientific maturity (Lihang Zhou) – Video Presentation – Zhou
1000-1030am: Refreshment Break
1030-1100am: Hands-On Activity: How to access JPSS data and products (Jorel Torres/Kathleen Strabala) –
1100-1200pm: Hands-On Activity: Using JPSS Products to Assess Snow and Ice Conditions for the Iditarod Sled Dog Race (Aaron Letterly) – Video Presentation – Letterly
1200-130pm: Lunch – Talks on JPSS product evaluations (Michael Bowlan / Eric Stevens / Michael Folmer)
130-230pm: Hands-On Activity: Case study assessing severe weather with NUCAPS Sounding Products (Nadia Smith) – Video Presentation – Smith
230-330pm: Hands-On Activity: Case study on monitoring volcanic hazards (Michael Pavolonis) – Video Presentation – Pavolonis
330-400pm: Refereshment Break
400-420pm: Training resources available for JPSS Data Products (Jorel Torres) – Video Presentation – Torres
420-430pm: JPSS-SPARKS Training Program: 2018 Plans and Student Interns Opportunities (Murty Divakarla) – Video Presentation – Divakarla
430-500pm: Course Summary, Q & A session, post course assessment (Christie Best) – JPSS Short Course: Evaluation Form
End of Workshop
The Summit is a series of Technical Interchange Meetings (TIM’s) focused on challenges in the Arctic where the JPSS satellites provides unique capabilities critical to science, service, and stewardship including saving lives and property. Although participation is open, we are aiming to keep each day focused with 20-30 participants per day.
To register, click here.
Great Alaska Aviation Gathering
For any questions, please contact Arron Layns (arron.layns@noaa.gov; (301)-807-8790)
**All times are Mountain Standard Time (MST)**
800-810am: Welcome, safety and logistics information, and introduction of speakers (Liz Nolan) – Presentation
810-830am: Overview of JPSS Program (Mitch Goldberg) – Presentation
830-850am: Introduction to JPSS data and products and their scientific maturity (Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20) (Lihang Zhou) – Presentation
850-920am: Top weather events of 2018 as seen by JPSS (William Straka) – Presentation
920-940am: Refreshment Break
940-1040am: Hands-On Activity 1. Microwave Analysis of Tropical Cyclones using the JPSS Constellation (Joshua Cossuth) – Presentation
1040-1140am: Hands-On Activity 2. Operating in the dark: The VIIRS Day/Night Band (DNB) Making a Difference (Curtis Seaman)
1140-1240pm: Lunch
1150-1205pm: Arctic Trivia (Bonnie Reed and Aaron Layns) – Presentation
1205-1220pm: NUCAPS Demonstration in the 2018 HWT Satellite Proving Ground Experiment (Michael Bowlan) – Presentation
1240-140pm: Hands-On Activity 3. JPSS Products for the aviation community (Jeffrey Weinrich)
140-240pm: Hands-On Activity 4. Wildfire smoke in Metropolitan areas: Forecasting ambient air quality to protect public health (Amy Huff) – Presentation
240-300pm: Refreshment Break
300-320pm: NWS training resources available for JPSS Data products (Jorel Torres) – Presentation
320-330pm: Course summary, Q&A session, post course assessment and announcements – JPSS Short Course: Evaluation Form
400-500pm: Presidential Forum: Building Resilience to Extreme Political Weather: Advice for Unpredictable Times – Training Resources
Contributors:
B. Motta, A. Mostek, J. Weaver,
D. Bikos, K. Schrab, K. Waters
This session will focus on how to obtain GOES RSO data and utilize it in AWIPS to assist with the forecast decision making process.
The objectives of this training session are:
The interactive VISITview training session. (To be used with a VISIT instructor leading the session ). The session will last 60 minutes. This teletraining session uses the VISITview software, where Windows PC (with 64 MB RAM or greater) with an Internet connection is needed. Web-based training session – a “stand alone” version viewed via a Web browser, with embedded talking points included. This lesson version may be viewed at any time. These slides are ideal for printing from the web-browser, just print preview first to choose portrait or landscape mode. Best viewed with Internet Explorer or Netscape (prior to version 6). Web-based Visitview session
– This version uses the VISITview software within a Web browser, may be viewed at any time. It retains all the functionality of the VISITview software which you see in a “live” teletraining session. The talking points are not included in this lesson version, but can be viewed in a separate Web browser (or printed out beforehand). local Visitview session – This is the same version of the lesson used in a “live” VISITview teletraining session, but no connection is made to an external VISITview server. You may download the file off this page and go through the lesson on your own in “local mode” by starting the “visitlocal.bat” file. Talking points are not included in this lesson version, but can be viewed in a separate Web browser ( or printed out beforehand).
|
Talking Points for GOES Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) Session
|
Dan Bikos (970) 491-3777
These training sessions were developed in the pre GOES-R era and are no longer supported. Although some of the principles may still be applied in the GOES-R era, these are no longer supported training courses and are made available here as reference material. Be sure to check the link to “Training Sessions” for current, supported courses.
These interactive discussions are intended to:
Below you’ll find a list of VISIT Satellite Chat recordings from the past, listed in reverse chronological order. Be sure to have your speakers on and the volume loud enough to hear the presentation. To sort them by a different column, click the column heading at the top to reorder them.
The table below includes VISIT training sessions that are currently available, listed in reverse chronological order from when they were developed. To sort by a different column, click that column heading. More information about the WMO Satellite Skills covered in the training sessions can be found here.
See the VISIT Teletraining Calendar to register for instructor-led sessions that are currently being offered.
Former VISIT training sessions have been archived. For modules organized into courses by topic, check out the SHyMet page.
VISIT is a joint effort involving NOAA-NESDIS Cooperative Institutes, the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS), and the National Weather Service (NWS). The primary mission of VISIT is to accelerate the transfer of research results based on atmospheric remote sensing data into NWS operations using distance education techniques.
VISIT training sessions that have debuted in the last two years:
Click on the VISIT teletraining session you’re interested in to see more details, including the link to the student guide.
The VISIT Satellite Help Desk is the place where NWS forecasters can ask satellite related questions. After submitting a question, a subject matter expert will reply within a reasonable time. The forum is searchable so that an archive of question and answers may be utilized to help answer your question and provide a learning experience for the community.
To access the VISIT Satellite Help Desk:
Go to the NOAA Virtual Lab homepage:
Login with your NOAA LDAP ID (email address minus the “@noaa.gov”)
Once you are logged in, go to this page:
https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/satellite-help-desk/discussions-forums-
Go to the “Question and Answer” Forum
Question categories in the Satellite Help Desk are based on phenomena. Subject matter experts will answer satellite specific (i.e., GOES-R, JPSS, GOES Sounder etc.) questions that you have.
| Bachmeier, Scott | UW/CIMSS/VISIT | 608-263-3958 | scottb@ssec.wisc.edu |
| Bikos, Dan | CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-3777 | Dan.Bikos@colostate.edu |
| Connell, Bernie | CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-8689 | Bernie.Connell@colostate.edu |
| Lindstrom, Scott | UW/CIMSS/VISIT | 608-263-4425 | scottl@ssec.wisc.edu |
| Scharfenberg, Kevin | NWS / Forecast Decision Training Division Chief | Kevin.Scharfenberg@noaa.gov | |
| Motta, Brian | NOAA/NWS/FDTD | 303-497-6561 | brian.motta@noaa.gov |
| Szoke, Ed | NOAA/NWS and CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-8366 | edward.j.szoke@noaa.gov |
| Van Til, Ross | NOAA/NWS/FDTD | 303-497-8316 | ross.vantil@noaa.gov |
These are a 1-2 page PDF document designed to be a reference to provide summarizing information about a product. This includes limitations, an example or two and highlighted features.
These are a brief (around 5 minutes) video that provide an introduction, basic explanation and one or two quick application examples
Live teletraining is typically between 15 to 75 minutes in length, depending on the topic.
Yes. There are different formats for taking the training session anytime you wish. The first type is the web-based video playback format, after clicking on the link simply listen to the presentation. The second type is the audio playback format, after downloading a VISITview file and following the directions to install it, listen to the presentation. Talking points are also provided for many sessions so that a printout of the main points of each slide may be used when reviewing training sessions.
1.) Credit in the NOAA LMS for your training record (assuming names of participants are returned to us on the email evaluation form), and 2.) A certificate of completion, after the point of contact supplies us with names of participants in the followup evaluation email. Please approximately 1-2 weeks for the certificates to arrive at your office depending on volume.
Click on the print button within the controls frame of the VISITview presentation.
See the Troubleshooting VISITview Training Sessions web-page.
Please see the tutorial at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/visitweb.html.
This can be due to a PC with insufficent RAM, make sure you are using a system that has 2 GB or more of RAM. If the problem persists, this may be to slow internet connectivity so the solution would be to use the audio playback version of the training (i.e., download the VISITview file).
Dan Bikos Dan.Bikos AT colostate.edu (970)491-3777
A: Your screen size may be too small. Check with the instructor to find out what the requirements are, and then adjust your screen size accordingly.
A: your instructor may have elected to tear-off the controls; in this case, right-click with the mouse in the screen area or press ALT+M to bring the controls back.
Make sure that the current directory is in your PATH. That is, the value “.\” (or “./” in Unix) must be in the PATH…preferably first.
A: Before you can run VISITview lessons on your Unix machine, you must first install the Java Runtime Environment (JRE) or the Java Development Kit (JDK), version 1.3 or later. Most of these can be found from Sun’s Java site by clicking here … also, see this page)
Most lessons are made available as self-extracting ZIP archives, with a .EXE extension. Make a new directory and put the archive file in it; then, use the Unix unzip program to extract the contents into the directory.
Make the visitlocal.sh file executable (chmod +x visitlocal.sh) and then run it to view the lesson locally.
If you want to use this to participate in teletraining, you will need to edit the appropriate .bat file(s) (for example, visit.bat) and:
A: Try to make an entry in your workstations hosts file. Find and edit the file by adding the server IP address and hostname. For now, the SSEC server is: 128.104.108.105 visit.ssec.wisc.edu
If you need the IP addresses of other VISITview servers, please contact your instructor.
You need to ask your network or system administrator to enable Port #1631 through the firewall. This port has been registered with IANA for the VISITview protocol (http://www.iana.org/numbers.htm).
A: If you have PaintShop, use it’s “capture area” mode to do a screen capture, and then save that as a GIF or JPEG for use in VISITview.
A: You can resize your saved GIF or JPEG files using the File->Page settings and resizing your pages to a height of “#lines/96” and a width of “#pixels/96”, in inches.
A: Office2000 does not use a Global Color Table in the GIF files. As of this writing (7/2000), the Java libraries do not know how to decode these. Either use JPEG for saving your images, or “convert” them to more standard GIF images using something like ImageMagick.
A: The page frame was saved as a GIF image with a “transparent background” turned on. When you use GIF images, it is very important not to use any “transparent” level when saving the files.
A: If you’re running on Windows, you must have at least installed Internet Explorer (even if you’re using Netscape). You must also associate the file types .htm and .html with which ever browser you use.
Open up a DOS Command Prompt window, and enter this command: rundll32 url.dll,FileProtocolHandler http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visitview
If you get a “command not found” response, then you need to locate the directory containing the rundll32.exe program and be sure it is in your PATH.
If you’re running on Unix, you must use Netscape and the program must be in your PATH.
A: There are a few possibilities here. First, try increasing the FILES parameter in your config.sys file to a value of 80.
A: If you received a message like Out of Environment Space, then we suggest: a) Open the config.sys file for editing. b) Find the ‘shell=’ command and make it look something like this: shell=c:\command.com /p /e:1024
(actually, just add the “/e:1024” to whatever you have; if you have no ‘shell=’ directive, then add it to your config.sys file).
A: Check out the information on this page
A: Yes, but…the first frame size is used to determine the “display extents” for all frames of the page (this is because ‘double buffering’ is used for animations, thus the buffer size is created using the size of the first frame). This means that if subsequent frames are larger than the first frame, they will be cropped. If subsequent frames are smaller, they will be displayed, but parts of the previous frame will also appear if it is larger than the one displayed. Tip: make all the frames for a page the same size, even if you have to resize them when you create them.
A: There seems to be a problem with the McAffee anti-virus scanning software, which causes it to lock up some systems if it is active while you are dowloading or un-zipping a lesson file. You should disable the anti-virus software, download and un-zip the file, and then re-enable the anti-virus software. Don Rinderknecht at WDTB offers this: “To disable the VirusShield, double click on the blue and red shield in your system tray (it has a red V on it). Then click the “Disable” button. After the VISITview item is done (unzipping or making exe) enable the VirusShield by clicking on the “Enable” button in the VirusShield dialog box.”
A: Running from a Windows-based machine, to replace the viewmaster.html and viewstudent.html files in a lesson:
Once you’ve done this, you can create a .EXE file simply by running the Lesson Builder and selecting the menu item: “File -> Make EXE”. It will prompt you to identify the zip file you want to make an EXE for. It will use the same “root” name as the ZIP file
A: We do not test with PK’s zip and unzip. You should either use WinZIP, or you can download and install a copy of InfoZIP from here
Important note: when using WinZIP to unpack a lesson file, be sure that the Use Folder Names box is checked in the Extract dialog window. Without this, the lesson files will not be placed into the correct subdirectories in you target directory.
dir entry =jre2/ e3:java.lang.NullPointerException
A: The most likely problem is that you were adding audio to an old lesson file that was constructed using the pre-April, 2002 files. You must be sure that the Java files bundled with your lesson are appropriate for the version of the Lesson Builder you are attempting to modify the lesson with. Follow these steps:
Assertion failed: offset < fFilesize, file ../../../src/share/native/sun/awt/font/fontmanager/fontobjects/fontObject.cpp, line 256 abnormal program termination
A: This is a bug in the Java runtime environment for Windows caused by an invalid or corrupt font file in the system fonts directory (c:\winnt\fonts or c:\windows\fonts). The only remedy at this point is to remove the offending file(s). In the system fonts directory:
A: Normally lessons are available from “ftp” servers. If you are using your web browser’s ftp client to download the file, you might try an alternative. Two Windows clients we have tested with success are:
A: For older lessons, the version of the Java runtime packaged along with the lesson (1.3.1) does not play well when any of the so-called “Aero” modes of the desktop are used in Windows 7. We suggest temporarily changing to a non-Aero theme in order to play the lesson. (We are also updating lesson files to move to a newer Java runtime.)
Updated 6/1/2009
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These webinars are peer-to-peer learning with staff from WFOs, National Centers, CWSUs, and RFCs leading the presentations. The presentations are short (less than 30 minutes) and offer recent in-season examples ready to apply operationally. The primary objective of these webinars are to share how to apply GOES imagery with other datasets for a specific operational application so that other WFO’s learn how to do this.
The primary mission of the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) is to accelerate the transfer of research results based on atmospheric remote sensing data into NWS operations. This transfer is accomplished through the education of NWS forecasters on the latest techniques to integrate remote sensing data, especially from satellite and radar. The education approach is based primarily on the use of distance education techniques (web-based audio/video modules and live teletraining) that rely on an expert being available at the local forecast offices (the Science Operations Officer (SOO) and a satellite/radar focal point).
Since geostationary and polar orbiting satellites provide earth and weather observations over the entire spatial spectrum, ranging from global to mesoscale to storm scale, the satellite perspective provides a useful framework into which other data can be integrated.
| Bachmeier, Scott | UW/CIMSS/VISIT | 608-263-3958 | scottb@ssec.wisc.edu |
| Bikos, Dan | CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-3777 | Dan.Bikos@colostate.edu |
| Connell, Bernie | CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-8689 | Bernie.Connell@colostate.edu |
| Lindstrom, Scott | UW/CIMSS/VISIT | 608-263-4425 | scottl@ssec.wisc.edu |
| Scharfenberg, Kevin | NWS / Forecast Decision Training Division Chief | Kevin.Scharfenberg@noaa.gov | |
| Motta, Brian | NOAA/NWS/FDTD | 303-497-6561 | brian.motta@noaa.gov |
| Szoke, Ed | NOAA/NWS and CSU/CIRA/VISIT | 970-491-8366 | edward.j.szoke@noaa.gov |
| Van Til, Ross | NOAA/NWS/FDTD | 303-497-8316 | ross.vantil@noaa.gov |
Figure 1) An example of a video (PC) screen during a VISIT teletraining session developed at CIRA. The software allows instructors and students to view and manipulate the material synchronously. This includes annotations, animated loop controls as well as many other features. (Also see Figure 3 below)
The Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) distance learning program was originally created in 1998 with funding provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was created in response to training requirements outpacing available travel funds as well as increased internet bandwidth and reliability. In order to address specific training needs, the VISIT team developed a distance learning software package called VISITview. The software allows users to simultaneously view and manipulate the images, animation, graphics and text. The strength of the VISIT teletraining approach is its ability to bring the instructor directly to the forecast office. The VISIT program is administered by staff from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), the National Weather Service (NWS) training division, and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS).
Just how does the teletraining process begin? It begins with the selection of a topic that is usually recommended by either NWS personnel or VISIT instructors. Once a topic is selected, VISIT instructors, along with external subject matter experts, develop an outline for the course. The model design used as the building blocks for most sessions is based on theoretical background knowledge of a particular topic followed and supported by case studies. The VISITview software package lends itself particularly well to this application by allowing the use of text windows, images (single or animated), and interactive graphics to be used together in a live conference setting. Once the first draft of a session is completed, a test run (beta test) of the lesson is presented to select NWS offices, subject matter experts, and other VISIT staff to refine the contents. Participants in this “trial run” provide formal reviewer comments that the authors are required to address (similar to the review process for refereed journal articles). Modifications to the session are then made, or justifications are provided should authors disagree with individual comments. Upon completion of the modifications, dates and times are selected and posted on the VISIT teletraining calendar for instruction and a formal announcement e-mail is sent to NWS offices.
Figure 2) VISIT instructor John Weaver (insert) leads a teletraining session as the NWS Office in Cleveland, Ohio follows along. Cleveland photo courtesy R. LaPlante.
NWS offices can signup for teletraining sessions via an e-mail sent to VISIT, a variety of teletraining sessions are offered each month. Setup instructions are sent out about a week before the session is scheduled to begin. The setup instructions contain download information for the file from one of the VISIT servers, the conference call information and a student guide to review before the training session. At the scheduled time of the session, all participating offices call in to the conference. The previously downloaded VISITview file is then initiated and run on the individual office’s PC. The VISITview software then automatically connects and synchronizes to the instructor’s PC over an internet connection, thereby allowing the instructor to control the session remotely. The controls include advancing of slides, annotations, animation controls, etc. (Fig. 1 and Fig. 3). Any actions done by the instructor are seen synchronously at every participating office (Fig. 2). During the teletraining session, interactivity is encouraged through the instructor’s questions and the often prodigious use of supporting case studies. The questions themselves are designed to generate thought-provoking discussion and practical reinforcement of the session’s principles for the student. The discussions may well lead to refinements and updates of the session material itself. At the conclusion of each teletraining session, an evaluation form is sent to the individual who signed up their respective office for the training (generally the Science Operations Officer) so that constructive criticism can lead to improvements of the session for future classes. The evaluation form also asks for the names of the students who participated so that a certificate of completion can be mailed to each student that fills out an evaluation form.
Figure 3) An example of an animated and annotated portion of a severe weather session.
Through October 2010, over 90 session topics have been developed, 28 of which were developed at CIRA. More than 1500 VISIT teletraining sessions have been administered during that same time period, with over 23,000 teletraining participants. It has been calculated that nearly 850 individual students have participated in at least 5 or more sessions, which is equivalent to roughly 1 full day of classroom training. Thus, considerable travel expenses plus time out of the office have been saved. Preparation for the VISIT material takes more time than comparable classroom presentations, given the extensive peer-review process used for the teletraining. However, the cost benefit gained by teletraining more than outweighs the expenditure for classroom training. Another benefit of teletraining is the use of the asynchronous versions for students that cannot attend the live teletraining. The VISIT website (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/) contains stand-alone versions of most sessions, many of which are of the audio (recorded) variety, and some with embedded instructor notes that can be viewed using a web browser. The web/audio versions make it possible to view the material at any time.
VISIT teletraining applications have continued to expand as more NOAA offices turn to this approach as a cost-effective solution to the problem of increased training requirements coupled with shrinking training and travel budgets. Based upon the generally positive student feedback, VISIT teletraining has fulfilled the goal of providing cost effective distance learning to operational forecasters.
The second phase of satellite meteorology training (Satellite Integration Training) focuses on the following challenges:
The requirement for Satellite Integration Training stems from surveys of students at the COMET SatMet Residence Courses who questioned: “how do we utilize satellite data with radar data on AWIPS?” Specifically, the requirements are to:
Anthony Mostek, John Weaver, Dan Bikos, Dan Lindsey, Bard Zajac, Scott Bachmeier, Tom Whittaker, Brian Motta, Brad Grant, Jim LaDue and John Ferree. 2004: VISIT: Bringing Training to Weather Service Forecasters Using a New Distance-Learning Tool. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: Vol. 85, No. 6, pp. 823-829.
The level of difficulty for these Instructional Components is generally intended for entry level meteorologists (with less than 3 years of experience in operational forecasting/warning (Interns, new Journeyman Forecasters, etc.) Material presented is based on fundamental principals or concepts that are fairly well known and regularly applied in the NWS operational meteorological community. In addition, Basic Instructional Components can be training material that describes local office procedures or applications of non-meteorological forecasting techniques (for example, the Enhanced-V Session). Often this training is intended to be a prerequisite to successive, more difficult Instructional Components offered in the same Professional Competency Unit. Note: Even though this material is geared at an Introductory level, experienced forecasters might be advised to take this training for review or, for preparation for more advanced level training.
This type of training contains slightly more difficult concepts and is targeted for more experienced meteorologists. The pace of the training and difficulty of concepts presented require more advanced knowledge and skills in operational forecasting and warning. Examples used are often based on recent operational research and case studies that are more complex in nature. A good working knowledge of using the various integrated sensors in the forecast process are important to successfully complete these Instructional Components.
This type of training is devoted to highly advanced concepts and new techniques of using integrated sensors in the warning and forecast process. The pace and level of difficulty of material presented require well-rounded knowledge, ability, and experience in using the full range of meteorological sensors in the forecasting and warning process.
Updated 6/1/2009
