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Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

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(Experimental) Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product (TCFP)

Posted On: July 15, 2008 - By: CIRA Web


Jeff Braun

With the main portion of Tropical Cyclone Season still around the corner (it’s slowly winding up), we thought we’d point you to the next generation of the operational TCFP product at:  New features include:

Extended domain: The product has been extended to cover the Northern Hemisphere Central and West Pacific tropical cyclone basins.

Additional geostationary satellite coverage: Water vapor imagery from GOES-West is now used for the East Pacific (replacing GOES-East used in prior product) basin and MTSAT-1R is used for the West Pacific basin.

Web site format: Each basin has its own web page displaying the xy contour plots of real-time, climatological and anomaly TC formation probability and input parameter values, as well as time-series over sub-basins. A front page to the website has been added that contains: 1. Full-domain contour plot of real-time TC formation probability. 2. 24-hour water vapor imagery loop over full domain. 3. TC Formation Potential plot. 4. Links to individual basin web pages.

•New input parameter: 850-hPa horizontal divergence was added as an input parameter.

Updated algorithm: Two years (2004 & 2005) were added to the development dataset and the product algorithm was redeveloped over each of the main basins (Atlantic, East Pacific and West Pacific) independently.

96 hour loops of TC formation probability: Loops have been extended from 24-hour to 96-hour and are available for each basin. Links to relevant SSD satellite imagery have been added to loops for easy reference (left sidebar of loop screen). This newer version is tentatively scheduled to become operational next month (August).

To view the current (older) operational product, please click here.

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