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Weekly Article -
Improvements to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Gridded Tropical Cyclone forecast advisory Message (GTCM) surface wind model
Improvements to NHC’s GTCM model were developed and made available to NHC for operational implementation for the 2026 Hurricane Season. The GTCM provides a 2-D surface wind field at hourly intervals using input from the NHC official forecast, which is a text product that includes the tropical cyclone (TC) center location, maximum wind and radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds out to 5 days. Improvements include a new wind gust parameterization, dynamic grid adjustment to account for large TCs, and a better method for fitting the NHC forecast input to the parametric vortex used by the GTCM. The GTCM is used as guidance by the National Weather Service for TC watches and warning and their gridded forecast products. The figure below shows an example of a cumulative swath of sustained wind and wind gusts for the landfall of Hurricane Helene (2024). (POCs: M. DeMaria, A. Brammer, Mark.DeMaria@colostate.edu, Alan.Brammer@colostate.edu, Funding NWS/STI and NOAA/JTTI).
Daily Loop:
Hypnotic Swirling Low Over the Pacific Ocean
Hypnotic Swirling Low Over the Pacific Ocean
A mesmerizing low pressure system swirls about in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
Data Products
The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) of NOAA/NESDIS conducts research on the use of satellite data to improve analysis, forecasts and warnings for regional and mesoscale meteorological events. RAMMB is co-located with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, CO.
