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Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

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Weekly Article -

Paper on ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones published

M. DeMaria is a co-author with R. Torn from the University of Albany on the paper entitled “Validation of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change”, Atmosphere, Vol. 12, Article No. 373. Results show that regional hurricane models and global dynamical models and their ensembles do not currently forecast tropical cyclone rapid intensification as well as statistical models, but bias correction methods make the regional ensembles competitive. This paper lays the groundwork for several CIRA projects that are developing improved methods for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting by combining satellite data and model forecasts. (POC: M. DeMaria, CIRA, Mark.DeMaria@noaa.gov) Funding: Satellite Application Developer.

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The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) of NOAA/NESDIS conducts research on the use of satellite data to improve analysis, forecasts and warnings for regional and mesoscale meteorological events. RAMMB is co-located with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, CO.