As part of the AMS 2020 Annual Meeting Satellite Short Course, we want you to put yourself into the shoes of a National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Specialist.
As part of your shift at NHC, you will help create Advisory #14.
To be successful, you will need to use satellite imagery and derived products from the GOES-R and JPSS series of satellites that we’ve discussed in the course.
We will be creating Advisory #14 (5 pm AST forecast; 21 UTC). We are working on two key elements to this forecast:
Here are some key takeaways from the Advisory #13 forecast discussion.
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Keep track and use the information to inform your forecast.
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion
Forecast Advisory 13: 1100 am AST (15 UTC)
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.
The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.
3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian’s potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN
Previous Forecast – Advisory 13: 1100 AM AST
5-day Forecast Track, Initial Wind Field and Watch/Warning Graphic
Most Likely Time of Arrival of 34kt Winds
GOES-16
* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 74 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 50 52 55 56 58 62 68 76 86 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 10 12 12 17 8 9 4 9 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 279 217 229 228 242 239 275 247 299 250 336 317 346 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 149 151 149 149 149 156 154 159 163 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 149 146 146 142 140 139 144 140 144 146 145 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 44 45 49 56 60 60 62 62 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 8 6 6 6 6 7 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -6 6 7 2 2 3 2 -10 -40 -31 -35 15 -4 200 MB DIV 27 17 26 39 32 0 -3 18 4 41 14 42 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 3 3 5 9 2 6 4 -8 0 2 LAND (KM) 357 439 394 269 159 34 25 148 312 383 401 170 -43 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.9 19.5 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 26.8 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.4 63.5 64.6 65.6 67.5 69.1 70.6 72.4 74.2 76.2 78.4 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 39 43 62 76 61 46 46 88 52 50 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ———————————————————- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ———————————————————- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 19. 20. 23. 24. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 61.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities —————————————————————————— RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 —————————————————————————— SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 35.0% 23.2% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.0% 32.3% 31.7% 26.4% 8.5% 17.7% 15.5% 14.8% Bayesian: 3.4% 23.7% 24.3% 1.7% 1.3% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% Consensus: 9.2% 30.3% 26.4% 9.4% 3.3% 16.7% 5.9% 5.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 55 58 61 61 64 65 68 69 75 61 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 57 57 60 61 64 65 71 57 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 51 51 54 55 58 59 65 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 41 44 45 48 49 55 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 55 57 60 63 67 71 75 78 83 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 51 54 58 65 74 84 92 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 11 12 14 8 10 3 9 2 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 2 -3 0 -4 -3 -5 -5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 170 202 217 244 251 256 288 257 223 273 38 297 230 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 152 147 152 152 157 156 159 166 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 147 148 147 139 141 141 144 141 143 147 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 45 45 51 57 60 63 64 70 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 -8 -6 -1 -1 -9 -31 -37 -34 10 7 27 200 MB DIV 22 42 40 16 4 1 33 10 30 26 30 27 46 700-850 TADV 1 0 6 5 7 4 6 1 4 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 477 396 261 137 44 87 123 278 465 523 322 116 2 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 19.2 20.7 22.3 24.2 25.6 26.5 27.6 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.1 64.1 65.1 66.2 67.9 69.4 70.9 72.5 74.5 76.9 79.1 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 42 61 80 62 59 45 52 67 50 50 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ———————————————————- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ———————————————————- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 62.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities —————————————————————————— RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 —————————————————————————— SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 37.8% 26.0% 16.6% 14.5% 22.1% 22.3% 21.7% Logistic: 17.7% 32.1% 30.1% 27.5% 10.6% 21.0% 15.6% 21.4% Bayesian: 5.1% 11.9% 25.0% 2.0% 1.3% 6.3% 1.8% 0.4% Consensus: 10.4% 27.3% 27.1% 15.4% 8.8% 16.5% 13.2% 14.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <– FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 53 55 54 57 60 64 68 72 75 80 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 50 53 56 60 64 68 71 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 44 47 50 54 58 62 65 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 39 42 46 50 54 57 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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