Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations

Introduction

Objective: To increase operational awareness of forecasting supercell motion – leads to better nowcasts & pathcasts of severe convective weather, as well as better derived parameters.

Outline:

1. Discuss primary mechanisms controlling supercell (and thunderstorm) motion
2. Explain the B2K method for predicting supercell motion which includes:
   • strengths and limitations of B2K method
   • vertical wind shear perspective
3. Provide examples of predicting supercell motion in operations
4. Summarize and provide recommendations

Training Session Options

NOAA/NWS students – to begin the training, use the web-based video, YouTube video, or audio playback options below (if present for this session). Certificates of completion for NOAA/NWS employees can be obtained by accessing the session via the Commerce Learning Center.

1. Audio playback (recommended for low-bandwidth users) – This is an audio playback version in the form of a downloadable VISITview and can be taken at anytime.

   Create a directory to download the audio playback file (74 MB) from the following link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/training_sessions/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations_audio.exe

   After extracting the files into that directory click on either the visitplay.bat or visitauto.bat file to start the lesson. If both files are present, use visitauto.bat

2. YouTube video:

References/Additional Links

• Previous version of this training session (from 2005). Talking points.
• Download the PowerPoint 2005 version of this training session
• Bunkers, M. J., B. A. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, R. L. Thompson, and M. L. Weisman, 2000: Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 61-79.
• Doswell, C. A., III, 1991: A review for forecasters on the application of hodographs to forecasting severe thunderstorms. Natl. Wea. Dig., 16, 2-16.
• Edwards, R, R. L. Thompson, and J. A. Hart, 2002: Verification of supercell motion forecasting techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J57-J60.
• Excel Hodograph Spreadsheet (Download here)
• Ramsay, H. A., and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Exploring hodograph-based techniques to estimate the velocity of right-moving supercells. Wea. Forecasting, in review.
• UCAR, 1999: Predicting Supercell Motion Using Hodograph Techniques. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/convectn/ic411/]
• UCAR, 2003: Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast. [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/hodograpf/]
• Zeitler, J. W., and M. J. Bunkers, 2005: Operational forecasting of supercell motion: Review and case studies using multiple datasets. Natl. Wea. Digest, in press. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/scm/ZB06.pdf