This product is a combined effort between the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, Oklahoma, and The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) in Fort Collins, Colorado, together with the NOAA/NESDIS RAMM Branch.
Daily output from NSSL’s 4-km WRF-ARW is provided to CIRA, who then generate synthetic satellite imagery, which is sent to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) via a McIDAS ADDE server.
Each image is just under 1 MB, and every day 28 images at 6 different bands are provided.
This product has two primary purposes: 1) Synthetic imagery from cloud model output can be used to evaluate each model run. For example, one might compare a simulated water vapor band to observed GOES imagery from 12-18 UTC to see how well the model is handling the timing and location of upper level features, such as shortwaves. 2) Since the simulated bands are based on the GOES-R ABI, looking at the imagery will prepare forecasters for how the actual GOES-R imagery will look when it becomes operational. For example, certain features may be visible at these wavelengths which are not viewable in the current GOES bands.
The synthetic imagery is a Proving Ground Product because it replicates how actual features will appear in GOES-R ABI bands.
Every day at 00 UTC, NSSL runs their 4-km WRF-ARW. As soon as the 12-hour forecast is completed, several variables are extracted and scp’ed to CIRA. These variables include temperature, water vapor, and other physical and microphysical parameters which are needed for the next step. When all variables have been receieved at CIRA, an observational operator is run to generate the synthetic imagery for 6 GOES-R ABI bands (3.9, 6.95, 7.34, 8.5, 10.35, and 12.3 microns) including some band differences. The simulated imagery is then converted to McIDAS AREA format and made avaiable for the SPC, who then makes the output viewable on their NAWIPS system. Hourly output between 09-12 UTC is processed daily, providing hourly forecast synthetic satellite loops out to 36 hours. The resolution of the output is 4-km to match the input resolution of the cloud model; the real GOES-R ABI bands will have 2-km resolution.
The synthetic imagery loops are available anytime between 10 and 15 UTC, depending on which band is used for the product. See the product description page for each individual product to know the available time. In the example below, the 7.34 micron band is compared to the observed GOES-13 Sounder data at a similar central wavelength. Note how the simulated data is at a better resolution that the sounder data (4 km v/s 10 km; GOES-R ABI will be 2 km), but the largest advantage is that the synthetic loop was available for viewing in the morning, thus providing an excellent resource for forecasters.
Figure 2. Synthetic 7.34 micron imagery from 24 April 2010 at between 12 and 00 UTC, and the observed imagery from the GOES-13 Sounder at a similar wavelength. Click for a larger view. In this case, the model does a fairly good job with the timing of the convection forming in the southeast U.S., but appears to overdo the coverage. The brightness temperatures in the clear areas match well, but the model has a cold bias with the thin cirrus clouds in the Great Lakes region.
Advantages of the synthetic ABI imagery include: 1) Satellite imagery can be viewed before the simulated time actually occurs, so forecasters know what to expect, 2) three water vapor bands allow one to view different atmospheric levels since the weighting functions peak at different levels, and 3) forecasters can use this imagery to prepare themselves for what actual GOES-R ABI imagery will look like. The biggest limitation is that the forecast is only as good as the cloud model forecast; if the model does not initiate convection, for example, then the convection will also be absent from the synthetic imagery.
| Feedback Product | Feedback Date | User Office | Feedback Source | Feedback Text |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synthetic WV | 12/5/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | THE WRF SIMULATED STLT DATA INDICATES THE DRIER FLOW ALOFT WILL WIN OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. |
| Synthetic IR | 11/25/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | SYNTHETIC SATELLITE FORECASTS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. |
| Synthetic IR | 11/24/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | SKIES WILL VARY BETWEEN SUNNY AND PARTLY CLOUDY AS OUTPUT FROM THE HI-RES WRF MODEL INDICATES SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE FOOTHILLS FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. |
| Synthetic IR | 11/22/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING TO OUR WEST SO WE DO EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS TODAY…ESPECIALLY AFT 17Z. WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SOLUTION ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS ABOUT 3 HOURS TOO SLOW COMPARED TO CURRENT TIMING OFFERED BY WATER VAPOR LOOP. |
| Synthetic IR | 11/16/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME UPSTREAM MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME OF THIS WILL BE OVER COLORADO TODAY…ESPECIALLY THIS OF THIS MOISTURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTAFTERNOON. WRF SIMULATED GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWING SOME THICKENING WHICH MATCHES PRETTY GOOD WITH CURRENT UPSTREAM MOISTURE. THIS MAY EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO GIVEN THE MID LEVEL WARMING TODAY LOW LEVELS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING ABOVE 700MB. |
| Synthetic IR | 11/10/2011 | BOU | AFD (afternoon) | … WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN WAVE CLOUD ALONG FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE…BUT WILL ADD A BIT MORE CLOUD TO THE GRIDS…. |
| Synthetic IR | 10/30/2011 | BOU | AFD (morning) | … ONLY A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW MINOR WAVE CLOUDS BUT CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR/WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THESE NORTH OF COLORADO… |
| Synthetic IR | 10/14/2011 | BOU | AFD(afternoon) | …ABI IR 10.35U SAT LOOP SHOWS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT…AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SLIDING DOWN ITS FRONT SIDE PRODUCING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE BY MORNING. LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO SQUELCH THE VERY WARM SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW… |
| Synthetic IR | 10/14/2011 | BOU | AFD(morning) | ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN ISSUES ARE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WRF BASED SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY AGAIN ONLY HAS WAVE CLOUDS KEEPING THE MAIN BAND NORTH. IN REALITY THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING…BUT SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR IN THE HEART OF THE RIDGE MOVES IN. |
| Synthetic IR | 10/13/2011 | BOU | AFD(morning) | …THERE ARE ALREADY BOTH SOME WAVE CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND A GOOD PATCH OF JET INDUCED CIRRUS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE PRODUCT ONLY HAS THE NARROW WAVE CLOUDS TODAY…THEN A BIT MORE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT. NAM HAS A HEALTHIER BAND OF HIGH HUMIDITIES IN THE 500-400 MB RANGE…THAT LOOKS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE CURRENT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS… |
| Synthetic IR | 10/3/2011 | BOU | AFD(morning) | …WRF SIMULATED GOES PRODUCTS INDICATES MOST OF THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT MAYBE A HINT OF A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM OVER ZONE 41 BUT KEEP THINGS DRY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEAST PLAINS… |
| Synthetic IR/WV | 10/2/2011 | BOU | AFD(morning) | …A RATHER WELL ORGANIZED BATCH OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA AT THIS TIME IS HEADED OUR WAY. NSSL WRF/CIRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THIS FEATURE RATHER WELL AT 10Z AND HAVE IT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS… |
| Synthetic IR | 9/22/2011 | BOU | AFD(Afternoon) | …WRF FORECAST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DOESN`T APPEAR THERE`S ENOUGH CLOUD TO CHANGE SKY GRIDS…. |
| Synthetic IR | 9/21/2011 | BOU | AFD | …WRF-BASED FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CIRA IS A BIT BEHIND THE POWER CURVE SHOWING THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW BUT DOES SHOW A DECENT INCREASE LATER TODAY. SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS SHOWING UP IN LIGHTENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WYOMING AT THIS TIME. |
| Synthetic IR | 9/21/2011 | BOU | AFD(Afternoon) | …WRF FORECAST SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS CLEARING THE AREA BY 05Z. THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE…AND WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THIS EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLEARING…WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS PLAINS BY MORNING. GUIDANCE LOOKING A BIT TOO WARM AND WILL UNDERCUT. ANYWAY…DECIDED TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT…FROM 06Z TO 14Z. CERTAINLY A GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST ALONG THE LOW LYING AREAS. |
| Synthetic IR | 9/20/2011 | BOU | AFD | …LACK OF CLOUDS ALSO SUPPORTED BY WRF-BASED FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING COOLER SKIN TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD AIRMASS BUT LITTLE ELSE. |
| Synthetic IR | 5/25/2011 | BOU | AFD | SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CIRA OFFERS A VERY REALISTIC EVOLUTION/DECREASE OF THE CLOUD FIELD AS THE CYCLONE EXITS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO KANSAS THE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THE SYNTHETIC IMAGERY SHOWING SOME LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS FORMING SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THIS IMAGERY SHOWS SOME STRATUS TYPE CLOUDS RUNNING AROUND THE PLAINS AFTER 06Z WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN SOME OTHER MODEL PARAMETERS SUCH AS BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND MOS GUIDANCE. AT THE SURFACE PRETTY DECENT NORTHWESTERLIES OUT ON THE PLAINS WITH THE URBAN CORRIDOR FLIRTING WITH A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE GENERAL NORTHERLIES DEVELOP BY AROUND 18Z…VEERING TO EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO QG PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. SEVERAL MODELS ACTUALLY DEVELOP A DENVER CYCLONE BY 12Z. |
| Synthetic WV | 4/16/2011 | BOU | AFD | DENVER SOUNDING SHOWS A SHALLOW INVERSION THIS MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN/NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVEN GOOD DAYTIME HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FROM THE LATEST WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGES…EXPECT ONLY SOME PASSING MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS AND A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. |
| Synthetic IR | 4/7/2011 | BOU | AFD | SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE WRF MODEL SHOWS A PERIOD OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. |
| Synthetic IR/WV | 4/6/2011 | BOU | AFD | SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE WRF MODEL DOES NOT GET OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY…INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE DEPICTED ON NAM CROSS SECTIONS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE FOR TODAY. |
| Synthetic WV | 3/30/2011 | BOU | AFD | TO FURTHER MUDDY THE WATERS…SYNTHETIC WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE BY AROUND 00Z WHICH STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. |
| Synthetic IR/WV | 3/19/2011 | BOU | AFD | SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CIRA BASED ON MODEL DATA IS HELPFUL HERE…IT SHOWS SOME DECREASE THIS MORNING BUT THEN INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. |
| Synthetic IR | 2/4/2011 | BOU | AFD | SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY AS THE LIFT SWINGS OVERHEAD…DECREASING OVERNIGHT WITH HINTS OF A SMALL WAVE CLOUD DEVELOPING. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY AND ALSO BUMPED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. |
| Synthetic IR | 1/27/2011 | BOU | AFD | WRF-BASED SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY…HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY…CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FORECASTS ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS DECREASING CLOUD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH WILL PUSH LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS SOME 60+ DEGREE READINGS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S IN PLACES. |
| Synthetic IR | 1/11/2011 | BOU | AFD | SYNTHETIC CLOUD IMAGERY FORECAST FROM CIRA SUGGESTS SOME WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY TODAY OFF THE FRONT RANGE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MOISTURE UPSTREAM FROM COLORADO AT 10Z. |