Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The manuscript “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999″ by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) has been forwarded, in its final form, to the technical editor at Weather and Forecasting.  We are now waiting galley proofs. 

A short article entitled “Some Frequently Overlooked Visual Severe Thunderstorm Characteristics observed on GOES Imagery – a Topic for Future Research” by John F. Weaver and Dan Lindsey has been accepted by Monthly Weather Review for inclusion as a Picture of the Month pending responses to minor reviewer comments.  The following two figures are from that submission.

Fig. 1.  a) schematic of idealized PPI radar reflectivity from a supercell thunderstorm, along with some storm scale features discussed in this paper, and b) schematic of a few cloud features that frequently appear on visible satellite imagery in association with supercell storms.

Fig 2.  GOES-7 visible satellite imagery from 13 March 1990 showing a storm near Hesston, KS as it transitions from a non-severe thunderstorm to one producing  tornadoes and large hail.  The phases of this evolution include; (upper-left panel, 22:01 UTC) shows the storm just before the rear flank downdraft (RFD) develops ; (upper-right panel, 22:16 UTC) shows inflow feeder clouds beginning to develop along the southeast flank; (lower-left panel, 22:31 UTC) shows compact inflow feeder clouds associated with the storm’s intense inflow (arrow A), and cloud lines developing over the invigorated RFD (arrow B); and (lower-right panel 22:46 UTC) shows storm structure at the time an F5 tornado has been on the ground for 12 min.

Work has begun on analyzing cases where satellite imagery was key in showing returning moisture prior to a severe convective event.  The results of this study will be documented in VISIT training and as a possible submission to Weather and Forecasting.  

A manuscript entitled “A note on the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetric tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU” was submitted to Monthly Weather Review.  The paper discusses composite analyses which show that, as vertical wind shear increases, the hurricane’s warm core structure and associated winds become shallower. Figure 1 shows the vertical wind shear based  temperature/temperature anomaly composites and Figure 2 shows the composites of tangential wind.  

Figure 1:  Vertical wind shear based composites of temperature (contours) and temperature anomalies (shaded) in oC.  Shown are; a)  Low shear ( <3.8 ms-1), b)  moderate shear (3.8 ms-1 > shear >6.8 ms-1), and c) high shear (shear >= 6.8 ms-1) composites.  Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2:  Same as Fig. 1 accept for balanced tangential wind in ms-1.

The Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) continues to outperform all other intensity guidance for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since a new scheme was made operational in June of 2003.  Results (1 June – 17 December) of STIPS (STIP) and the Decay version of STIPS (STID) are shown along with 5-day Statistical typhoon intensity forecast (ST5D) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamical typhoon model (GFNI) intensity guidance that are also available at the JTWC in Table 1.   ST5D is a purely statistical model or control model used primarily for verification purposes.  Forecasts that have less error than ST5D are considered skillful.  The final year-end results along with a detailed description of the model are being prepared for publication in Weather and Forecasting.  

Table 1:  Average intensity errors (kt) from 5-day statistical typhoon intensity forecasts (ST5D), STIPS (STIP), decay-STIPS (STID), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory typhoon model (GFNI).  Note  that ST5D  is a control and that forecasts with errors smaller the ST5D are considered skillful.  The number of cases in indicated in parentheses.

Progress has been made on a project to create probabilities associated with tropical cyclone wind thresholds using a Monte Carlo approach in three tropical cyclone basins (North Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific including the Central Pacific, and western North Pacific).  An example of the output of this program, which uses the official NHC/JTWC forecast as input, is shown in Fig. 3 for the entire North Atlantic Basin valid 8 September at 1200 UTC.  New improvements include; 1) Software has been generalized so that it will work in all of these basins 2) refinement of the method by which the errors of track and intensity are sampled, and 3) the inter-basin generalization of a wind radii climatology and persistence model and refinement of the coefficients associated with this model.

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 3.  Example of the MC wind probability output being produced at the National Hurricane Center.  Shown is the probability of experiencing 34kt or greater wind speeds over a 120-h period based on NHC’s forecast of four active tropical cyclones on 8 September 2003 at 1200 UTC. The values of the probabilities (%) are indicated by the color bar at the bottom of the figure To the right is a guide to the individual tropical cyclones, which are labeled within the figure as 1 through 4.

Progress has also been made in moving two tropical cyclone products (AMSU intensity estimation, GOES-based tropical cyclone genesis) from experimental phase (run at CIRA) to the pre-operational phase (run at NESDIS) under funding from the NESDIS Product System Development and Implementation (PSDI) Program.  Progress so far involves 1) the generalization of the GOES tropical cyclone genesis product to a continuous product, 2) the porting of Grib decoding software, and AMSU TC intensity estimates to Linux, 3) the verification of last years TC intensity estimations, 4) coordination with NESDIS/SAB/IPB personnel with various data and hardware needs, and 5) development of a detailed outline/flow chart of the implementation of these projects at NESDIS. 

Software to generate cross sections of fronts from model data was developed. Additional software to solve the Sawyer-Eliassen equation for the secondary circulation about fronts was written.

The article entitled “Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery” by J. Weaver, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey, C Schmidt and E. Prins has been forwarded, in its final form, to the technical editor at Weather and Forecasting.  We are now awaiting galley proofs.

As part of the GOES-R risk reduction project, the convective event of 8 May 2003 that occurred over the Central Plains of the United States was simulated. A loop of simulated GOES CH4 images was created from the simulated convective event using the Observational Operator. The Observational Operator can calculate brightness temperatures for not only clear skies, but also cloudy regions. Two other weather events will be simulated: A Lake Effect Snow case, and a Tropical Cyclone Event. These results are a first step towards simulating some of the GOES-R channels.

GOES 10.7 µm imagery has been simulated using Regional Atmospheric Modeling System output and radiative transfer code developed at CIRA.  The results were then converted to McIDAS area files.  An example is given for a simulated convective event which occurred over Kansas and Nebraska. This technique will be applied to spectral bands planned for GOES-R and NPOESS to help identify new applications of this data to mesoscale analysis and short-term forecasting.

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1.  A simulated GOES image from a RAMS model run of convection over Kansas and Nebraska.  The thunderstorm in eastern Kansas shows more structure than those in Nebraska because of the additional higher resolution model grid placed over that area.

Several satellite data sets have been obtained for selected case studies chosen for CIRA’s GOES-R Risk Reduction activities.  Satellite data sets include GOES Imager, AIRS, MODIS, and AVHRR.  In addition, one of the McIDAS/Windows 2000 systems at CIRA has been configured on SFU (System For Unix) in order to be able to manipulate the AVHRR Level 1B data that could not be read with an Interix-based McIDAS setup.  AIRS retrievals were also obtained from Dr. Chris Barnet at NESDIS for some of the case studies.

Several data sets have been added to the GOES-R web page http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/GOES-R_IPO/GOESR_IPO.html.  The datasets now available include; GOES, ETA Model analysis, RAMS Model Simulations, and RADAR.  New datasets will continue to be added in the future.

Software is being developed to analyze AIRS hyper-spectral and other multi-spectral data sets for both signal-to-noise and significantly important information content contributing to detection of atmospheric and surface features. These methods to parse the data are needed in lieu of the fact that future satellite data sets will need to be scaled down to preserve bandwidth and to limit redundant information from the data stream available to end users, with implications for GOES-R operations.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for September, October and November 2003.

Processing of wind regime products is on schedule. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 (visible) and channel 4 for August, September, and October 2003 have been completed. Six year, monthly combined visible products have also been completed for these months.

A poster entitled, “Applications of GOES Cloud Climatologies to High Wind Forecasting” was presented at the NOAA five-year review on November 5, 2003.

C. Combs started discussions with Walter Strach and Warren Blier from the NWS office in Monterey for developing a fog climatologies for their area.

Several satellite data sets have been obtained for selected case studies chosen for CIRA’s GOES-R Risk Reduction activities. Satellite data sets include GOES Imager, AIRS, MODIS, and AVHRR. One of the cases chosen is the 12-14 Feb 2003 Lake Effect Snow event that affected both Lake Huron and Lake Ontario regions significantly.

The most recent version of Principal Component Image (PCI) software developed at CIRA has been made available to Matthew Lazzara, meteorologist with the Antarctic Meteorological Research Center, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Mr. Lazzara will use the software in his PhD work on MODIS over the Antarctic.

The VISIT team is collaborating with COMET, CIMSS, and the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK in the development of WTDB’s Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC) for severe weather.

The manuscript entitled, “Microscale Aspects of Rainfall Patterns as Measured by a Local Volunteer Network” by N. Doesken, J. Weaver and M. Osecky has been accepted by National Weather Digest contingent on a number of revisions being completed.  N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center) is supervising this process.

D. Molenar met with Ralph Meiggs of SSD to learn of their work using ArcInfo to analyze satellite data in conjunction with other geo-spatial datasets. Their work is particularly valuable because SSD has already converted McIDAS imagery and met data to ArcInfo format.

The VISIT team is collaborating with various NWS forecast offices in the development of a new Winter Weather teletraining session. The new session will be approximately 3-hr long (taught in two parts) and will cover numerous winter weather topics from regions across the continental United States.

Brazil Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter.

Japanese Interaction:

Mr. Kotaro Bessho from the Typhoon Research Division of the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) concluded his year-long visit to RAMM/CIRA in early October.  He will continue his work with RAMM Team on developing and improving AMSU tropical cyclone analysis algorithms for the western North Pacific basin.  He is utilizing QuikSCAT data to help validate the AMSU-derived surface wind fields. Mr. Bessho is working on a paper for Monthly Weather Review describing these results.

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

Assistance was provided to El Salvador and Panama to solve network configuration problems involving firewalls and security.

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imagery for September through November, 2003 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for September – November 1997-2003 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are shown in Figure 1 (7).

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for September  – November 1997-2003 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 um imagery for September – November 1998 – 2003 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2 (8). 

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 um imagery for September – November of 1998 – 2001 for Barbados. 

The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html 

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados

We do not tend to receive emails from the ‘regular’ users when the site is working properly, but we know the site gets used because we receive inquiries when the sites go down or when there is some other problem.  From email during the past 3 months, we know that a person with meteorological interests in Panamá views the IR imagery regularly and the precipitation estimates were being viewed by the Secretaría de Agricultura y Ganaderia in Honduras.

The RMTC web page has been updated – check it out at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/TRNGTBL.HTM#WMO

SICA Project:

The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate. The site continues to be useful as a backup for the imagery when the server in Costa Rica goes down.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html

A Dell X300 Laptop was procured for Dr. James Purdom for his WMO research.

The article entitled “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) has been forwarded, in its final form, to the technical editor at Weather and Forecasting.  We are now awaiting galley proofs.

Efforts are underway to define, consolidate and upgrade the existing RAMM web environment, and to move the RAMM web page to a RAMM server instead of utilizing the current CIRA server.

Hiro Gosden is researching and developing dynamic web pages that will be utilized to host and display information on various projects.  The first task is going to be displaying the dataset inventory for all the data that has been accumulated for the GOES-R research project.

Several data sets have been added to the GOES-R web page 
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/GOES-R_IPO/GOESR_IPO.html
The datasets now available include; GOES, ETA Model analysis, RAMS Model Simulations, and RADAR.  New datasets will continue to be added in the future.

A new web page showing several loops from hurricane Isabel was added to the RAMMT website 
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/RMSDSOL/isabel-web.html    Loops cover the entire storm from genesis to landfall.

A joint effort is underway with CIMSS to define requirements for official AWIPS systems to support VISIT work at both sites. In the meantime, D. Molenar is working with CIMSS and COMET staff to try to build a functioning D2D 5.2.2 ingest and display system.

Additional hardware has been ordered to support a WES 1.3 workstation in addition to the WES 1.2 workstation.

The program MEANWIND, which computes from model data the 200-850 hPa pressure-weighted mean wind, the average wind vectors at the model levels, and the 200-850 hPa and 500-850 hPa wind shear vectors within a user-defined circular or annular domain has been updated for better use with archived GFS data.

A new system configuration was implemented for the Tropical RAMSDIS system to remedy problems that existed in previous configuration. The new system configuration consists of McIDAS-X version 2002b running on MS-Windows 2003 Server operating system.

Hiro Gosden attended the McIDAS User’s Group meeting in Madison, WI, on October 16-17. A new development of running RedHat Linux operating system in a MS Windows operating system was discussed. We at CIRA/RAMM will pursue this development to run McIDAS-X in RedHat Linux using software called VM-Ware.

In order to view Level-1b datasets in McIDAS-X version 2003, a new Unix OS emulator software was needed. This software upgrade was successfully tested and implemented on two MS-Windows-based workstations. The future installations of the RAMDSDIS systems will follow this configuration.

The VM-Ware software was installed on a MS-Windows 2003 server system, and is being tested to host the RedHat Linux operating system in the new Virtual Environment. When the Linux OS is stable in the Virtual Environment, the McIDAS-X software will be installed and tested.

A replacement RAMSDIS installation CD was sent to B.K. Consimpex in New Delhi, India. This was part of a project to import INSAT data into McIDAS.

LINUX-RAMSDIS development has continued to be worked on this quarter and is now available for use.

Reviewer comments on the manuscript entitled “VISIT — Bringing Training to Weather Service Forecasters using a New Distance Learning Tool” by A. Mostek, J. Weaver, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, B. Grant, J. LaDue, B. Zajac that was submitted to the Bull. of  the Amer. Meteor. Soc. has been received.  The team is currently working on the responses.

During this quarter 36 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered, 772 students from 205 NWS offices participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter include, “Water Vapor Channel Satellite Imagery” (taught by Scott Bachmeier of CIMSS), and “NOAA Seasonal Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks” (taught by Gerald Bell of the Climate Prediction Center).

A number of winter weather cases are being archived for development of a training session that deals with using satellite imagery for analysis of winter storms.

A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations.  The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999.  As of December 1, the total is 12,049 certificates.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – November 30, 2003.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web page:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html
 

The following bar graph is a compilation of evaluations that are sent to the individual who signed up for 
each VISIT training session.  They are asked to respond with a number ranging from 1 through 5 where 1 means strongly disagree to 5 which means strongly agree.  The questions asked are:
1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.
2) The content of the session was appropriate.
3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.
4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.
5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me
    involved in the session and test my learning.
6) The instructor explained the material clearly.
7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.
8)  The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are
    directly applicable to my job
9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

The total number of responses to each question is listed below:

The graph shows that the responses are overwhelmingly positive for each category.

The following map shows how many VISIT teletraining sessions have been completed by each NWS WFO as well as CWSU and national centers:

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Boundary Detection:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Cyclogenesis:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow I (basic):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Lightning Meteorology II:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather using GOES RSO:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

NDIC:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web.  The downloadable files can be found by going to the list of teletraining sessions at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html, 

then selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing.  Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.

M. DeMaria gave a presentation entitled “Storm Surge and Wind Probabilities for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones” at a COMAP (COMET Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction) course on November 14. He also provided a lab exercise at the class.

J. Weaver taught “New focuses in satellite training” at a COMAP course on October 24.

Much effort went into preparations for participation in the WMO sponsored Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RA III and RA IV held in Barbados December 2-12, 2003.  The lectures (link to http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/RMTC/Syllabus2003.htm) covered many aspects of image use and interpretation and included lecturers from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), CIRA/RAMM, WMO, University of Costa Rica (UCR), EUMETSAT, ESA, COMET, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 

CIRA/RAMM personal provided lectures/laboratories on the following topics: interpretation of GOES and POES imagery and products, products from meteorological sounders, hyper-spectral imagery, identifying mesoscale weather features in satellite imagery, tropical weather systems, as well as volcanic ash detection and fire detection.  There were fourteen participants from the Caribbean, Central America, and South America (Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Brazil, Costa Rica, Cuba, Grenada, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Netherlands Antilles, Peru, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.  Computers were used for laboratory exercises that included example loops of the various imagery or products as well as locating satellite resources on the Internet. 

One of the highlights of the seminar was an afternoon of  “live” VISITview sessions.  The first was a linkup with Dr. Vilma Castro at UCR for presentation on their experiences with RAMSDIS/RAMSDIS online and also the hurricane Mitch Reconstruction project.  The second VISITview session consisted of a live weather discussion with Boulder and Fort Collins in Colorado, Madison in Wisconsin and Barbados. 

A meeting of the International Satellite Data Utilization and Training Focus Group was held following the training.  Quite a few of those attending this meeting arrived early in Barbados and gave lectures at the training.  The training was a success due to the preparations and hospitality provided by CIMH (including the weekend tour of the island) the support of the WMO and CIRA/NESDIS, and the enthusiasm of the participants.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1.  Participants and presenters attending the training in Barbados December 2 – 12, 2003.

Figure 2. Emmanuel Moolchan from Trinidad and Tobago providing input during one of the daily weather discussions.

Figure 3. Selvin and Horace Burton (can you tell who is who?) sharing comments.  They were the main contacts from CIMH.

Figure 4.  Participants working through a tropical cyclone identification exercise.

Received:

D. Molenar attended the Red Hat Certified Engineer Fast Track training course in Denver, CO, from September 8-12.  The course covered advanced aspects of Linux Red Hat system administration and provided solutions to many of the problems encountered in RAMMT’s ongoing transition from HP-UX to Linux, which is required to maintain compatibility with NWS AWIPS capabilities and to reduce hardware and software support costs.  The sections on system security, file sharing with Windows, and RAID disk configuration were particularly valuable.

Hiro Gosden attended the Web Standards Presentation on November 11, presented by Craig Spooner of the Computer Training & Support Services (CTSS) to learn about the current standards used in the World Wide Web environment.

Hiro Gosden attended the MS Access database training series through CTSS on November 13, 18, and 20.  This Access database will be used to store information on various datasets that will be used for the GOES-R research project.

Hiro Gosden attended the Dreamweaver web authoring software training series through CTSS on December 1, 3, and 5.  This software will be utilized to develop a dynamic web page for the GOES-R research project.

D. Molenar attended a weeklong NOAATech seminar in Silver Springs, October 20-23. 

D. Molenar and D. Watson attended a two-day IDV training session given by Unidata, November 3 and 4.  Efforts are underway to incorporate IDV as an additional visualization tool.

K. Micke attended the IDV training session given by Unidata, November 5 through 8.

D. Hillger attended a one-day Fred Pryor/Career Track seminar titled, “How to Balance Priorities and Manage Multiple Projects.”  Some valuable information was obtained from the seminar presenter as well as other seminar attendees.

Given:

M. DeMaria gave a presentation October 14 entitled “Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Hurricane Intensity Forecasts” in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science seminar series.

Several RAMMB members participated in the WMO-sponsored RMTC Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications.  (See RMTC/WMO.)

Published:

Accepted:

Demuth, J.L., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and T.H. Vonder Haar, 2003:  Evaluation of an Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm.  J. Appl. Meteor.

Dostalek, J.F., J.F. Weaver, L. Phillips, 2003:  Noteworthy aspects of a severe left moving thunderstorm of 25 May 1999.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., and T.J. Greenwald, 2003:  Analysis of 10.7 um brightness temperatures of a simulated thunderstorm with two-moment microphysics. Mon. Wea. Review.

Nolan, D., and L.D. Grasso, 2003:  Nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional perturbations to balanced, hurricane-like vortices.  Part II.  Symmetric response and nonlinear simulations.  J. of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Weaver, J.F., D.T. Lindsey, D.E. Bikos, C.C. Schmidt, E. Prins, 2003:  Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Submitted:

DeMaria, M., C.W. Anderson, J.A. Knaff, B.H. Connell, 2004:  A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2004:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Hodanish, S., R. Holle, and D.T. Lindsey, 2004:  A small updraft producing a fatal lightning flash.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T., 2004:  The VISIT Program: Transferring Research to Operations.  AMS 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting.  11-15 January, Seattle, WA.

Lindsey, D.T., 2004:  VISIT – Providing Teletraining for Operational Forecasters.  AMS 13th Conference on Education.  11-15 January, Seattle, WA.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, 2004:  An introduction to the statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme (STIPS).  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Knaff, J.A., S.A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, J.L. Demuth, 2004:  A Note on the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  Atlantic Intense Hurricanes, 1995-2003 – Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  The Objective Dvorak Technique – Historical Perspective.  Special Session on the Dvorak Technique: A 30-year test of time.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, May 3-7, 2004, Miami, FL.

Reviews:

D. Hillger provided technical and editorial feedback to a draft of IEEE P270/D8: Standard Definitions for Selected Quantities, Units, and Related Terms, with Special Attention to the International System of Units.  Hillger is a member of IEEE Standards Coordinating Committee SCC14.

A status report covering hardware, software and configuration plans for the next 6 months has been presented to staff. The report included information on new packages and technologies such as IDV and ArcInfo that will be utilized for the GOES-R project.

Kevin Micke completed work on a Windows script that automatically updates a new website displaying experimental tropical cyclone wind probabilities.  The numerical data displayed on the website is taken from the National Hurricane Center’s “Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) B-decks,” while the images are created locally with a model developed at CIRA.  The website can currently be viewed at:

http://aller.cira.colostate.edu/tcwinds

The disk controller on Regulus has been repaired.

A new 320 GB SDLT tape drive has been installed on Pasiphae for use with the new Linux systems.  The new tape drive will read old DLT 4000 tapes created on the hp’s, but will not read hp fbackup format, so a student hourly is converting old hp fbackup tapes.

A new 40/80 GB DLT 7000 tape drive has replaced the failed DLT 4000 on Helene.  Efforts are underway to procure a second reconditioned 7000 for Regulus as a backup. 

New systems have been ordered for Connell, Dostalek, Molenar, Hillger, and DeMaria. 

A new Linux box to replace Ulysses has been configured and added to the NESDIS server access list.  Ulysses has been reconfigured to work around a failing disk controller, and both systems will run in parallel for 1 month before Ulysses is decommissioned.

A faster system has been configured to replace Proteus system in the west lab.  Proteus will be reconfigured for Kathy. 

A dual boot Linux box has been configured for John Knaff.

A Dell 4600 Desktop system was procured to upgrade the IT Infrastructure research system.

An SDLT tape device, along with SCSI controller, was procured for this project to backup data accumulated on the GOES-R data server.

A new color LaserJet printer is being procured to replace the broken one.