Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Dataset Conversion: The entire NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis dataset (1948-present) has been acquired and is currently being converted from its native grib format to a packed ASCII format. This dataset will be used in tropical cyclone research. (J. Dostalek and J. Knaff)

Real-time Typhoon Intensity Forecasts: Ocean heat content information is being used to produce forecasts of typhoon intensity at the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey. Real-time heat content information is provided to NRL by G. Goni of the NOAA/AOML. This information is used in a recently developed version of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme that makes use of such information in the western North Pacific. Forecasts are produced in real time and are disseminated to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for use in their forecasting duties. Forecasts from the 2005 Typhoon season have been verified using the preliminary best track information and are presented in Table 1 along with the percent improvement over a control forecast constructed from climatology and persistence. These results suggest skillful forecast are made using this methodology through 72 hours, however, the number of degrees of cases is rather limited. (J. Knaff)

Table 1: Verification of tropical cyclone forecasts in the western North Pacific using a new version of STIPS that make use of ocean heat content information. The verification consists of 8 tropical cyclones (wp172005- wp242005).

Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis: Work continues on a satellite only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. This work combines in a specially developed analysis (cylindrical, variational) observations from feature tracked winds, SSMI winds, Quickscat winds, AMSU-derived 2-d wind fields, and IR-derived winds. The key ingredient is the recent development of an IR method to predict the winds associated with the core of the tropical cyclone using two pieces of information predicted from the IR imagery (size and radius of maximum winds) and other information provided from the tropical cyclone advisories (intensity, motion, and location). The combined analyses are run in real-time while the analysis is improved. The current version uses a standard flight-level to surface wind correction over water, and decreases (turns) these winds an additional 20% (20 degrees) over land. An example of wind analyses from Hurricane Epsilon (AL292005) at its peak intensity of 75 kt ( i.e., 12/4/2005 at 12 UTC) is shown in Figure 1. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1: Satellite-only surface wind analysis of Hurricane Epsilon on December 4, 2005 at 12 UTC. Wind radii are given at the bottom of the figure.

New Tropical Cyclone Pressure-Wind Relationship: The pressure vs. wind relationships of tropical cyclones have been re-evaluated using the last 15 years of tropical cyclone best track wind estimates and aircraft MSLP values to assess the relative importance of latitude, environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size. Both environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size are determined from numerical analyses and appear to have no dependency on the analysis used (NOGAPS, GFS, NCEP-Reanalysis). Findings suggest that all of these factors can be used to reduce the scatter in the current pressure wind relationships. Larger and higher latitude storms produce lower MSLP for the same maximum wind speed. Environmental pressure is additive, or in other words storms occurring in a higher pressure environment have higher MSLP. Relationships were developed to estimated the wind from quality pressure observations and to estimate the pressure given a good estimate of the maximum 10-m, 1-minute sustained wind. These relationships can be utilized in operational tropical cyclone centers throughout the world and for reanalysis of past tropical cyclone events. Maximum surface winds speeds estimated from aircraft pressures for the Atlantic and E. Pacific tropical cyclones in 2005 are compared with the preliminary best track intensities in Figure 2. The paper describing this algorithm has been submitted to Weather and Forecasting for publication. Furthermore, a conference paper discussing its application to historical tropical cyclone data in the western North Pacific has been submitted. (J. Knaff) Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 2: Scatter diagram of the independent predicted values of V max using aircraft pressures with this new methodology (equation 8) shown as black boxes and those predicted using the Dvorak pressure wind relationship (crosses) vs. observed values of V max from the operational best track .

Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Paper Submitted: A paper describing the statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction schemes used at the National Hurricane Center and the DOD Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been submitted for publication. Two models based on climatology and the persistence of initial conditions are described. One model makes use of parametric vortex to make predictions while the other uses multiple linear regressions. Both produce remarkably similar results. See previous quarterly reports for examples. (J. Knaff)

Bias Corrections for IR Wind Radii Estimates: Using an IR-based algorithm to estimate tropical cyclone wind structure the probability density distributions of estimated tropical cyclone wind radii (i.e., 34-kt, 50-kt, and 64-kt) were examined and compared to operational estimates with and without aircraft reconnaissance data as input. The cumulative probability distributions resulted in the discovery of biases in our algorithm. Estimates of the 50-kt and 34-kt wind radii from the algorithm tended to be too large (small) for category 3,4 and 5 hurricanes (i.e., maximum winds greater than 95 kt) (tropical storms). Fortunately, the biases are related to the intensity and. As may have been anticipated, it was also noticed that there is a distinct influence of aircraft reconnaissance on the advisory estimates of wind radii, emphasizing the need for such data in operations and for research. Systematic biases have since been corrected for.

Hurricane Genesis Web Page: The Atlantic/East Pacific Hurricane Genesis Web Page was ported over to the new RAMM Team’s web server. It is currently being tested and eventually, it will become a backup web page to the operational web site at ORA. (H. Gosden)

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Algorithm Extended: Collection and cataloging of large-scale, western North Pacific GOES-9 water vapor imagery was conducted for a project to extend a tropical cyclone genesis algorithm to the NWS Pacific region. Roughly 1.5 years of continuous data were found to exist in our archives. These will be intercalibrated with MTSAT water vapor imagery as part of this project. (J. Knaff)

Global and Fully Automated Data Collection: Several research data sets from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season were collected at RAMM/CIRA. 1) Tropical Cyclone IR archive: The data collection is now global and fully automated. All images are viewed for quality control. Since May 15, 2005, IR images with 64 tropical cyclones were archived. Of these, there were 13 Atlantic hurricanes, seven eastern Pacific hurricanes, and 14 western Pacific typhoons. 2) Tropical RAMSDIS Archive: The image files displayed on Tropical RAMSDIS were archived for the period 26 June to 31 October. Until mid-August most of the images were included, and following that time all of the image products were saved. 3) GOES special rapid interval data sets: With several Atlantic hurricanes full resolution multi-channel sectorized rapid scan images were archived. Most of these were RSO (Rapid Scan Operations, 8 images/ hour), but there were also 2 short periods of SRSO (Super Rapid Scan Operations, 22 images/ hour). GOES-11 rapid scan was collected with Hurricane Emily. GOES-12 data sets were archived with major hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Additional GOES data sets are also available from the CIRA archive. 4) MODIS/AVHRR: An archive of 1 km resolution Mercator IR remapped images was initiated and along with a few 250-meter resolution visible MODIS images, includes approximately 100 images. (R. Zehr, J. Knaff)

Objective Dvorak Technique Intensity Estimates:Intensity estimates using the Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT) have been computed for the seven 2005 Atlantic hurricanes that attained at least Saffir-Simpson Category 3. Aircraft observations of the lowest central pressure with the three Category 5 hurricanes (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma) indicated intensities exceeding Mitch (1995) and not observed since Gilbert in 1988. The lowest minimum sea-level pressures were: Katrina, 902 hPa; Rita, 897 hPa; and Wilma, 882 hPa. The highest maximum wind assigned to each of them by the Tropical Prediction Center Advisories was 150 knots. Comparable results with the RAMM/CIRA version of ODT using a 6-hour running average of computations on 30-minute interval images, gave maximum intensities of: Katrina, T7.2 (146 kt, 915 hPa); Rita, T7.3 (149 kt, 911 hPa), and Wilma, T7.6 (158 kt, 903 hPa). (R. Zehr)

Meteosat Second Generation Data: A collection of full resolution (temporal, spectral, and spatial) Meteosat Second Generation data was collected over the tropical Atlantic 1 June – 3 December for future satellite applications. (J. Knaff)

IR Imagery Collection: An automated collection of 1 km, Mercator, IR imagery over Global tropical cyclones has been started. At present NOAA Limited Area Coverage (LAC) and High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT), and NASA Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are accessed and utilized. Fig. 1 shows an example from tropical cyclone SH0306. These imagery will be utilized to study the effects of increased resolution on tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithms. (J. Knaff) Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1: Example of 1-km, Mercator IR imagery that is being collected for future risk reduction activities. Tropical cyclone SH0306 on 23 November 2005 at 0405 UTC and and intensity of 115 kt is shown.

Archived Images: The AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) IR sensor provide 1-km resolution images that show details and features that are not well observed in geostionary images. We are now archiving 1-km Mercator cyclone centered remapped IR images from AVHRR and MODIS with tropical cyclones. Two examples of Hurricane Wilma are shown in Figs.2-3. (R. Zehr, J. Knaff)

Fig. 2. Hurricane Wilma MODIS 1-km IR, 0710 UTC 19 October 2005.

Fig. 3. Hurricane Wilma MODIS 1-km IR, 0725 UTC 24 October 2005.

Synthetic GOES-R ABI 10.35 µm Imagery: Synthetic GOES-R ABI 10.35 µm imagery has been created from a simulation of hurricane Lili. Synthetic images were created every fifteen minutes with a horizontal footprint of 2 km over a 12 hour period. These images will be treated as observations and will be used in an assimilation experiment of hurricane Lili. (L. Grasso and D. Zupanski)

Interaction with Naval Research Laboratory: Work with the Naval Research Laboratory on the development of a Consensus (5 members)/Ensemble (5 members) (or Consemble) tropical cyclone intensity prediction system continues. Forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity change are created using the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Forecasts are provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center so that they can be utilized in their forecasting activities. Results in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that the consemble significantly improves forecasts in the 48-72 hour forecast time period. In the Southern Hemisphere these forecast are the first to produce skillful intensity forecasts in this region of the world. (J. Knaff)

Publication Contributions: A note discussing the pitfalls of selective consensus forecasting in tropical cyclone track forecasting has been prepared for publication with personnel from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey. Selective consensus forecasting refers to the process of a forecaster removing a member or members from a consensus of global tropical cyclone tracks to form a new consensus forecast. The selective consensus was compared to a consensus created from the global models. The overall results for the 2000 through 2005 seasons show that the use of selective consensus produces slightly less skillful forecasts and that as the use of selective consensus increases forecast skill decreases, suggesting over use will deteriorate the final forecasts.

A technical comment discussing issues contained in the recent Webster et al, 2005, Science article entitled “Comments on “Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment” was prepared. Comments will be submitted for publication next quarter. (J. Knaff)

AMSU Transition: Transitioning the AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity and structure to NCEP operations continue. This quarter, NOAA-18 data and retrievals were added to the algorithm with help from A. Krautkramer at TPC. Now that these changes have been implemented, the processing algorithms have been handed to NCO for transition to NCEP operations before the next Atlantic tropical cyclone season. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

Hurricane Intensity Information Provided to Admiral Lautenbacher. Information on the impact of ocean heat content on hurricane intensity was provided in response to a request from the office of Admiral Lautenbacher. The question concerned how fast a category 1 hurricane can intensify into a category 5 storm, and how well air-sea interaction processes are understood. Analysis of historical data showed that a category 1 storm can intensify to a category 5 storm in as little as 24 hours, and this time is comparable to the time it takes to cross an oceanic eddy in the Gulf of Mexico. With regard to air sea interactions, the basic processes are understood from a qualitative point of view, but there are still large uncertainties in the surface exchange coefficients at high wind speed, and the impact of the sea state on the fluxes. This information was in preparation for the Admiral’s upcoming trip to the European Space Agency meeting where Envisat will be discussed. (M. DeMaria)

New Software for Thee-Color AREA File Generation: Software has been developed to create McIDAS-formatted AREA files from three-color imagery, such as generated by the McIDAS Combine command. The Combine command creates a 24-bit three-color product that can be turned into a JPG image, but not directly into a McIDAS-formatted AREA file, nor converted into a 1-byte (8-bit) image. The new software uses an algorithm coded by Stan Kidder, which is based on Heckbert’s Median Cut Algorithm from 1982, to create a 1-byte AREA that can be displayed in a McIDAS frame and looped over multiple frames. The program creates a unique color table for each three-color image. That color table needs to be applied to the image to have the three-color effect. This software is currently being tested on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data to produce three-color images and loops. An example of the new algorithm applied to MODIS data is included in the following pair of figures. (D. Hillger, S. Kidder)

Figure 1a: An image created from an AREA file generated using the new thee-color software. This example is the “natural” color product as applied to MODIS data, consisting of the 1.6 µm, 0.8 µm, and 0.6 µm bands for the red, green, and blue bands, respectively.

Figure 1b: For reference, an image created from output of the McIDAS Combine command, for the same data as in Figure 1a. The casual viewer would have a hard time noting differences between the two images.

Three-Color AREA File Loops: The software developed to create McIDAS-formatted AREA files from three-color imagery, is now being used to create re-loadable image loops within McIDAS. Since the program optimally creates a color table unique to each three-color image, that color table needs to be appropriately named and applied to its intended image to have the proper three-color effect. This problem was worked out with appropriate software and is now being applied to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data to produce three-color loops. An example of a three-color MSG loop is attached below. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: An image loop created from McIDAS AREA files generated using new thee-color software. This example is the MSG “natural” color product over Europe, consisting of the 1.6 µm, 0.8 µm, and 0.6 µm bands for the red, green, and blue colors, respectively. High/cirrus clouds and snow-covered ground are cyan, low clouds are white, and bare ground surfaces are natural colors (green and brown). [Click on the image to start the loop.]

Satellite Climatology: The processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for September and October 2005. Processing is slightly behind schedule, but should be caught up during the holidays.

The processing of wind regime products continues. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for August and September 2005 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for these months and channels.

Work on the new cloud climatology project with Eureka, CA has been started. New procedures have been set up, and data from our archives for July-August time period are currently being processed. (C. Combs)

Wind Retrieval Technique Development: Using a method originally developed for use with tropical cyclones, a wind retrieval technique using vertical temperature profiles derived from radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) is being developed for the polar regions. With a boundary condition given by a 100-hPa height field from the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis, the temperature profiles are used in the downward integration of the hydrostatic equation to compute height as a function of pressure. A balance condition is then applied to compute the stream function, from which the u- and v-component of the non-divergent wind can be evaluated. Figure 1 shows the 500-hPa height field and the geostrophic winds as calculated using the technique applied to AMSU data from 0015 UTC 17 December 2004. For comparison, the 0000 UTC 17 December 2004 500-hPa heights and geostrophic winds from the GFS analysis are also given (Figure 2). The retrieval technique captures the overall pattern quite well, although there is a negative height bias of 28 m. Future work will include using a nonlinear balance equation to derive the stream function, as well as validation against collocated radiosonde data. (J. Dostalek and Mark DeMaria) Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1.  Derived 500-hPa heights and geostrophic winds for 0015 UTC 17 December 2004.

Figure 2.  GFS analysis of 500-hPa heights and geostrophic winds for 0000 UTC 17 December 2004.

Midlatitude Cyclones Study: The processing of various datasets for use in the study of midlatitude cyclones has begun. NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis and North American Regional Reanalysis data will be used to identify atmospheric rivers and trowals. The output from these datasets will be compared to satellite imagery for several cases to investigate the ability of the satellite imagery to analyze and forecast these features of midlatitude cyclones. (J. Dostalek)

Severe Weather Nowcasting Product: Work continues in the development of a severe weather nowcasting product which makes use of GOES storm-top 3.9 µm albedo measurements. This future product will follow from recent research which has been submitted to Mon. Wea. Review for publication (see below). Cloud reflectivity has been shown to vary with cloud depth and updraft strength, so this product will allow thunderstorms with relatively strong updrafts to be identified and monitored with GOES. (D. Lindsey)

MCS Prediction Index: Work has begun on the development of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) prediction index. This is a collaborative project with Israel Jirak, a joint post-doc in the Atmospheric Science department and CIRA at Colorado State University. GOES IR data will be used along with a statistical algorithm to identify areas in which MCS formation is likely. (D. Lindsey)

Broadband Cloud-Top Reflectivity: A short study was completed to assess whether thunderstorm-top 3.9 µm albedo measurements show similar characteristics to broadband albedo as measured from the CERES instrument. The figure below shows that no relationship exists between them. This is not a surprise: the majority of solar radiation occurs at shorter wavelengths than 3.9 µm, and visible albedo depends mostly on optical depth. (D. Lindsey) Click on image to enlarge.

Values of CERES cloud albedo plotted against GOES 3.9 µm albedo of optically thick ice clouds over the U.S. during the summer of 2004.

Cloud Simulation: An observational operator was used
to simulate an altostratus cloud composed of primarily supercooled
water droplets. Predicted brightness temperatures at 3.9 µm and 10.35 µm
were very close to the observed values. Sensitivity tests were also
performed by varying droplet size and concentration to see the resulting
changes in brightness temperatures. Tests of this nature are very
useful in understanding satellite measurements of clouds, especially
with channels from the future ABI aboard GOES-R. (D. Lindsey)

Code Developed: Code has been developed that
computes the effective radius of an entire gamma sized distribution; in
addition, the effective radius within bins of a gamma sized distribution
can also be calculated. The effective radius is used to lookup
explicitly calculated optical properties of ice clouds. These optical
properties are used to compute 3.9 µm spectral radiance values. This
method is being used to study highly reflective thunderstorm tops. (L.
Grasso, D. Lindsey, and M. Sengupta)

Woodley Weather Consultants: A project continues in collaboration with Woodley Weather Consultants to determine the nowcasting and forecasting utility of effective radius retrievals from towering cumulus clouds. Satellite data for over 30 case studies has been provided, as well as specialized software to extract brightness temperatures from the data. Preliminary results are promising. (D. Lindsey)

Pyrocumulus Detection: A project with Mike Fromm (Naval Research Lab) has recently begun to study towering cumulus clouds associated with large wildfires(pyrocumulus). GOES data and loops were provided for a recent presentation at the AGU meeting. (D. Lindsey)

Software Exported: The software to compute the Surface/Skin Temperature from GOES imagery has been sent to Prof. Paul Markowski at Pennsylvania State University (PSU) for use by one of his students to model the effect of thunderstorms shadows on skin temperatures. (D. Hillger)

University Interaction: J. Weaver continues his mentorship duties with one of Tom Vonder Haar’s graduate students. The project concerns satellite-observed, storm-scale features on GOES visible imagery. It is postulated that these features are most often associated with supercell thunderstorms. This week, J. Weaver (NESDIS) and R. Mazur (CSU) met with L. Grasso (CIRA) to discuss results of a Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model run in which these features were simulated. Currently, the cluster that runs the model network is down, but initial results are promising. The goals of the project include correlation studies to relate these features to supercell storms and severe weather, as well as try to develop some idea as to their cause. (J. Weaver, L. Grasso)

Informal Meeting: D. Lindsey met with Dr. Andy Heymsfield (NCAR) to discuss recent research results about ice crystal production within thunderstorms. Some valuable ideas and suggestions were exchanged. Dr. Heymsfield was visiting the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU, and providing a guest lecture to AT650, Measurement Systems and Theory. (D. Lindsey)

VISIT Sessions Taught: D. Bikos and J. Braun taught the sessions “ Utilizing GOES Imagery within AWIPS to Forecast Winter Storms,”“Cyclogenesis,” and “Lake Effect Snow II,” with 13 sessions and nearly 300 participants. Thirty one total VISIT Sessions were administered this quarter through December 15th, with 598 participants from 210 National Weather Service forecast offices. This breaks down as follows: For October – 10 sessions and 172 participants. For November – 9 sessions and 224 participants. For December (through the 15th) – 12 sessions and 202 participants. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

SHyMET Annual Meeting: CIRA hosted the 2-day annual meeting for review of training plans associated with the proposed intern track of the S atellite Hydrology and Meteorology (SHyMet) Course and the ongoing Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training (VISIT) Program. Input was received from collaborators at CIMSS, WDTB, and COMET. ((D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell, M. DeMaria)

Intern SHyMet Course: Modules are being compiled and reviewed for the Intern ShyMet Course which is scheduled to be offered in March of 2006. Course content and objectives can be viewed at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ((D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell, M. DeMaria, R. Zehr)

New Satellite Interpretation Discussion Page: A new Satellite Interpretation Discussion page can be found at http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/PICODAY/051214.html (D. Bikos)

WMO Tutorial: Hiro Gosden provided assistance in creating an installation package to install the WMO Tutorial Session on the personal computers. The WMO Tutorial session was developed by Dr. James Purdom and his cohorts. (H. Gosden)

Imagery Archives: GOES-12 imagery for September through November 2005 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The monthly cloud frequency composites for September – November 1997-2005 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for September -November 1997-2005 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September – November 1998 – 2005 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2. Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September – November of 1998 – 2005 for Barbados.

The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados

The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html

http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html (B. Connell)

SICA Site: The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html (B. Connell)

VISITview Weather Briefings: The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA ( http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, CIMSS, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Cayman, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, and Venezuela. The discussions were well attended with up to 20 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. The sessions started with comments from the participating countries on the features of interest for their local weather. After this, Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk gave an analysis. The sessions generally last 90 minutes. (B. Connell, D. Coleman)

Increased Detector-to-Detector Striping with the GOES-10 Sounder: Increased noise has been noticed lately in an image product (shortwave albedo) generated from GOES-10 Sounder band 8 (11.0 µm) and 17 (4.0 µm), especially for nighttime imagery. Some quantitative testing indicates that random noise levels in those bands are not necessarily elevated above what might be expected for an older instrument. However, a quantitative assessment of detector-to-detector striping indicates that striping might be the source of the increased noise in the image product generated from those bands. In particular, Sounder band-8 has elevated detector-to-detector striping, (among the 4 different detectors used for each band) possibly on the order of 5 times the noise level determined during the GOES Science Tests on each satellite. It is not unusual for the striping to be greater than the random noise, but to the level determined here there might be a problem. Details of this assessment have been sent to Tim Schmit (CIMSS) and Fred Wu (calibration) for their assessment. If nothing else, this situation points to the need to determine baseline noise and striping levels for each satellite and band, in order to assess potential changes to the instruments as they age. (D. Hillger)

Ramserve Server Sunset: Hiro Gosden coordinated the sunset of the Ramserve server with Brian Callicott of NESDIS. The Ramserve served Satellite, Meteorological, and Grids data to many RAMSDIS systems throughout the world. The client systems were redirected to ingest their datasets from the new servers at NESDIS. (H. Gosden)

NWS Western Region Headquarters Assistance: In lieu of Ramserve server sunset, Hiro Gosden provided assistance to Andy Edman in transitioning their McIDAS server to ingest satellite data from the new NESDIS servers. (H. Gosden)

Server Rack Procurement: A server rack was purchased in order the house the servers in a new CIRA room. The RAMM Team currently maintains two rack-mount servers, and there are plans of acquiring two more servers. (H. Gosden)

New Linux System: A new Linux system has been configured for John Knaff due to strange features on his old system. (D. Molenar)

Evaluation of Storage Requirements: Efforts are underway to evaluate high end storage requirements for purchase after the first of the year. (D. Molenar)

System Backups: All systems are now backed up via disk imaging software as well as routine tape archive. (D. Molenar)

NOAAPORT Progress: Efforts are underway to complete construction of the cement pad that will house the NOAAPORT receive dish. (D. Molenar)

Refereed

Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2006:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis.  J. of Applied Meteorology.

Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, and J. Braun, 2006:  The role of GOES satellite imagery in tracking low-level moisture advection. Weather and Forecasting.

DeMaria, J., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2006:  On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds Crossing Narrow Landmasses.  J. of Applied Meteorology.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2006:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Hillger, D., S.Q. Kidder, 2006:  A simple GOES skin temperature product. National Weather Digest.

Lonfat, M., S.S. Chen, J.A. Knaff, F.D. Marks, Jr., 2006:  Effects of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM.  J. of Atmospheric Sciences.

Submitted:

Refereed

Bikos, D., J.F. Weaver, J. Braun, 2005:  The Role of GOES Satellite Imagery in Tracking Low-Level Moisture Advection.  Monthly Weather Review.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2005:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2005: Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery of mesoscale weather events. J. of Applied Meteorology.

Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2006: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Wind Relationships. Monthly Weather Review.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, C.J. McAdie, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.

Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, K.J. Mueller, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2006: Estimating Hurricane Wind Structure in the Absence of Aircraft Recconnaissance. Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, and J.F. Dostalek, 2006: GOES climatology and analysis of thunderstorms with enhanced 3.9 µm albedo. Monthly Weather Review.

Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, T.H. Vonder Haar:, 2005: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. J. Applied Meterology.

Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2005: Evaluation of GFDL Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms.  Weather and Forecasting.

Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., and F. Prata, 2006: Detecting volcanic ash and blowing dust using GOES, MODIS, and AIRS imagery. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, C. Barnet, R.T. DeMaria, 2006: Tropical Cyclone Applications of Next-Generation Operational Satellite Soundings. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Dostalek, J.F. and M. DeMaria, 2006: Polar wind retrievals using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2006: Analysis of a hook echo and RFD from a simulated supercell on 8 May 2003. AMS Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2005: Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery of mesoscale weather events. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and D.T. Lindsey, 2006. A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R Product Development Risk Reduction Activities. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., T. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, J.A. Knaff, and J. Daniels, 2006: An Overview of GOES-N Science Test. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Knaff, J.A., and M. DeMaria, 2006: A Multi-platform Satellite Tropical Cyclone Wind Analysis System. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Lindsey, D.T., 2006: A Climatological Study of Ice Cloud Reflectivity over the Continental US. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.T. Lindsey, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Statistical comparisons of model output with satellite observations: a severe weather case. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, M. Sengupta, and M. Zupanski, 2006: Evaluating the Impact of Satellite Data Density within an Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach.  AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Reviews:

BAMS Review: J. Knaff reviewed a manuscript submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society for publication. (J. Knaff)

Multiple Reviews: M. DeMaria reviewed 6 papers for Nature, Monthly Weather Review, Geophysical Research Letters, and the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. (M. DeMaria)

Remote Sensing Class Presentation: A presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels was given to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver. Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery. (B. Connell)

DRI Seminar: A presentation entitled “Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery” was presented at the Desert Research Institute (DRI) Seminar in Reno, Nevada on October 19, 2005. (L. Grasso)

Posters Prepared: Three posters have been prepared for the 14th AMS Conference of Satellite Meteorology and Oceanograpny to be held in Atlanta, Georgia. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, and M. Sengupta)

Invited American Geophysical Union (AGU) Paper: M. DeMaria was invited to give a paper at the February meeting of the AGU on hurricane applications of satellite altimetry in the ocean sciences session. An abstract will be submitted on this topic, with emphasis on the 2005 category 5 Atlantic hurricanes. (M. DeMaria)

MUG Meeting: D. Molenar attended the McIDAS Users Group (MUG) meeting in Madison , WI , to review McIDAS and McIDAS-V hyperspectral data requirements. (D. Molenar)

GOES-R Meeting Presentation: M. DeMaria gave a presentation on satellite wind algorithms developed by RAMMB at the GOES-R Algorithm Working Group Meeting, October 16, 2005.

Class Lecture: D. Lindsey provided an invited lecture in AT351, an undergraduate laboratory for Introduction to Weather and Climate, for the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University . (D. Lindsey)

Atmospheric Science Class Lecture: M. DeMaria provided a lecture on the theory of equatorial waves for the AT601 class (Atmospheric Dynamics) in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University . The class consisted of about 20 first-year graduate students. (M. DeMaria)

CIRA Visitor and Seminar: Thomas Lee of Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Monterey CA visited CIRA on 6 December 2005. Tom gave a seminar titled “NPOESS Satellite Training Online Through COMET,” attended CIRA’s daily satellite weather discussion, and visited with several RAMMB and CIRA scientists. (D. Hillger)

Contribution to a Miami Herald Article on Hurricane Forecasting . M. DeMaria provided input to a four-part article in the Miami Herald on tropical cyclone forecasting. One of the parts focused on the apparent large over-warning by NOAA, but the analyses provided for the article showed that this situation has reversed in the past six years. Follow up information showed that the warning size can not be reduced much further unless the hurricane forecast accuracy is improved through better models and satellite and in situ observations. The follow up study was included in a response to the article prepared by the National Hurricane Center for NOAA. (M. DeMaria)

Hurricane Information Provided to the Philadelphia Inquirer: M. DeMaria provided information of the impact of the Gulf Stream on hurricane intensification to Tony Wood of the Philadelphia Inquirer for an upcoming story on the 2005 hurricane season. Research results show that the Gulf Stream usually does not have a dramatic effect on storms because the water surrounding the storm is already very warm and extends through a fairly deep layer, and the Gulf Stream is very narrow. However, the Gulf Stream rings have a more significant effect because of their larger horizontal scale, and the greater variability in the depth of the warm water. (M. DeMaria)

FY05 Performance Plan Feedback Meetings Completed: Meetings with all RAMMB employees to discuss their final ratings and performance from FY05 were completed. (M. DeMaria)

John Weaver retires from NOAA: John Weaver retired from RAMMB after 25 years of service. A reception was held for John on his last day of work on December 2 nd , which was well-attended by NOAA, CIRA and CSU staff. John will be pursuing a degree in Psychology at CSU, and will still be working occasionally with RAMMB staff under his new CIRA emeritus status. (M. DeMaria)