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The newly extended NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product has just completed its experimental run during the 2007 hurricane season. Formation product evaluation is underway, although preliminary analyses suggest that the new TCFP performed successfully for 2007 in all 3 basins; Atlantic, E. Pacific and W. Pacific. The new TCFP is on schedule to replace the current operational product in 2008. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, and J. Knaff)
Figure: The time series plot of TCFP product formation probabilities (right) summed over W. Pacific sub-basin WPII (left, in yellow) are shown. In the time series, the black line represents climatology, the blue line represents the product-estimated probability and the open red circles represent times at 0, 6, 12, and 18 hours prior to TC formation.
A National Science Foundation grant was awarded to A. Schumacher by the Univ. of Colorado Natural Hazards Center Quick Response program for a project entitled “Resource Utilization and Response of Pet Care Professionals During a Natural Disaster.” This is an interdisciplinary project, with collaborators in the social sciences, that entails traveling to the site of a landfalling hurricane shortly after impact and administering in-person interviews of pet care professionals. The goal of this project is to better understand how this population plans for and responds to hurricane evacuation orders and how they use weather information products to make their decisions. (A. Schumacher)
Software which converts NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from grib format to a packed-ASCII format was set up to run again. More reanalysis data will be converted to the packed-ASCII format for use in tropical cyclone research. (J. Dostalek)
There were two Atlantic major (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes in 2007, Dean and Felix. Analyses completed for the 1995-2005 period, and published in Journal of Climate article (Zehr and Knaff, 2007, in press), are being updated with the recent cases. This year, Dean and Felix, were both Category 5 hurricanes with non-recurving east to west tracks through the southern Caribbean. They were also unique in that they were small in size. Only two other Atlantic major hurricanes since 1995 (out of 49) had a smaller average radius of gale force wind at maximum intensity than Felix’s 75 n.mi. Dean’s lowest central pressure was 906 hPa, while Felix intensified to 929. Both had maximum wind estimates of 145 kt. Figure 1 shows IR images near time of maximum intensity. (R. Zehr)
Figure 1. IR images at time of maximum single image Dvorak digital IR intensity of T7.4 for both: a. Dean, 0402 UTC, 24 Aug 2007. b. Felix, 2345 UTC, 2 Sep 2007.
Rapid intensification is being reexamined using the IR imagery. Twenty-five extremely rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone cases with IR imagery have been collected for the period 1987-2006. The average starting intensity of these cases is ~60 kt and after 24 hours the final intensity is ~110 kt. Techniques to remap and spatially filter the brightness temperatures to a storm motion relative, cylindrical coordinate system have been developed. The cylindrical data has also been interpolated to a half-hourly temporal resolution. The axisymmetric mean brightness temperatures are then removed from these data. Finally, the 2-d time series is then temporally smoothed using a binomial filter and a complex principle component analysis is applied. (J. Knaff)
Preliminary results indicated that in these data there are three identifiable patterns that explain 24, 13 and 9 % of the variance. The spatial patterns associated with complex principle component (CPC) 1 are associated with cyclonic outflow. CPC 2 appears related to dual outflow channels one ahead of the storm another located in the rear right quadrant. CPC 3 appears to be related to the development of a convective free moat region and the cyclonic rotation of thunderstorms near the radius of maximum winds (i.e., the forming eyewall). The spatial amplitudes, and phases are shown in Figure 2. Wind barbs give the phase direction and relative magnitude (note the change in sign produces erroneous wind barbs). (J. Knaff)
Figure 2: Spatial Amplitudes (shaded) temporal phase (contoured), and phase speed/direction (wind barbs) of the first three complex principle components of the azimuthal brightness temperature anomalies found in 25 rapidly transitioning tropical cyclones. A 48-hour period is used for each storm encompassing 24 hours prior and the 24-hour during these rapid transitions. The intensity at the beginning (end) of these rapid transitions was 60 (108) kt.
Annular Hurricane (AH) cases in 2007 were verified. The Annular hurricane index was able to correctly identify Hurricane Flossie as being Annular. Flossie was the only Annular Hurricane in the Central/East Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclone basins. Figure 3 shows the 6-hourly time periods when the AH algorithm identified Flossie as being an annular hurricane. (J. Knaff)
Figure 3: Slide showing the performance of the Annular Hurricane Index (AHI) during Hurricane Flossie (2007). The track of Flossie is shown in the upper right. Individual IR images are shown with the valid time and the AHI value. The AHI can range from 0 (not an annular hurricane) to 100 (the highest probability of being an annular hurricane).
The gradient level winds produced by the multiplatform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis are now being used to estimate MSLP. The azimuthally averaged gradient level winds were integrated within 600 km of the tropical cyclone center to provide an estimate of the pressure difference DP. DP is then added to azimuthally averaged MSLP at 600 km that is provided by an NCEP analysis. The figure below shows the MSLP estimates and maximum surface winds from the multiplatform surface wind analysis for Typhoon Mitag (24W). MSLP information is now being provided to JTWC and NHC every six hours and was recently added to the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/index.asp. (J. Knaff)
Figure Caption: Time series of estimated maximum surface winds(Vmax), environmental MSLP (Penv ;measured at 600 km radius) and MSLP provided by the experimental multiplatform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis for Typhoon Mitag (wp242007).
A real-time source of simulated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data for infrared channels has been developed using an algorithm obtained from the GOES-R Algorithm Working Group (AWG). The ABI infrared channels are approximated using Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data obtained from the NESDIS server. The simulated ABI data, Channels 7 – 16, are then made available via a MCIDAS server that facilitates the development of case studies; allowing the researcher to obtain the data in smaller areas over long periods of time as interesting events occur.
These same algorithms can be applied to the MSG datasets collected over the tropical Atlantic during the 2005, 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons. An example of the simulated ABI imagery, channels 7 – 16, covering Tropical Cyclone Elnus (SH09) at 23UTC on 2 January is shown in Figure 1. (J. Knaff)
Figure 1: Example simulated ABI imagery created using the AWG algorithm and MSG data. Imagery is valid 2 January 2008 at 2300 UTC. The scene shows Tropical Cyclone Elnus (SH092008), which was experiencing strong to moderate westerly wind shear and has a nearly exposed low-level center. Imagery from the top left-to-right order shows simulated ABI imagery for channels 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16, which correspond to 3.9, 6.19, 6.96, 7.34, 8.50, 9.61, 10.35,11.2, 12.30, and 13.30 μm central wavelengths. Channels 8,9 and 10 are water vapor sensitive, channels 11,13 and 14 are near IR windows, channel 12 is sensitive to stratospheric ozone, Channel 15 is a dirty IR window that is sensitive to inhomogeneously mixed water vapor, and channel 16 is a dirty IR window, but sensitive to homogeneously mixed CO2.
A GPS dropwindsonde AIRS sounding match-up database for tropical cyclone studies is complete. The AIRS soundings have been compared to those dropwindsonds and statistics of the comparison have been created. In addition, statistics evaluating the utility of AIRS soundings relative to the GFS model first guess have been compiled. A manuscript describing these results is in preparation. However,since the NASA science team almost always masks out the eye of tropical cyclones as being cloud contaminated even when not very few AIRS eye soundings exist. An effort has begun to more AIRS sounding eye cases from NESDIS (Chris Barnet from StAR) using raw AIRS data. (J. Knaff)
J. Knaff participated in the Risk Management Systems (RMS) expert elicitation held 28-30 October.
J. Knaff visited NOAA/HRD on 31 October to discuss current and future collaborations.
J. Knaff visited NCEP/TPC to better coordinate the operational transition of several tropical cyclone products. A presentation entitled “CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Forecast Tools: Planned Operational Transitions and New Initiatives” was given at NHC.
Tropical advisories for Hurricane Noel ended 2 November at 18UTC so the operational version of the CIRA/RAMMB AMSU tropical cyclone intensity structure algorithm at NCEP did not run. However, the OAR Hurricane Research Division was conducting field operations using manned and unmanned aircraft studying extra-tropical transition of tropical cyclones. To aid their field work, additional analyses of Hurricane Noel were created on 3 November and supplied to HRD. The resulting low-level wind fields will be utilized in H*Wind analyses. Analyses were also provided to B. Hart (FSU) and C. Velden (CIMSS/UWisc). This work has lead to a presentation at the next AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff)
Information about the frequency of low latitude tropical cyclones (i.e., equatorward of 10 degrees) was provided to J. Hawkins (NRLMRY). The western North Pacific, in particular a region near Guam, is one of the few places where tropical cyclones form and intensify equatorward of 10 degrees latitude. This information will be used to partially justify a request for additional aircraft reconnaissance flights during the 2008 THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (TPARC) experiment in the western North Pacific. (J. Knaff)
“Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships”” has been submitted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. The paper addresses comments made by a Mauritius tropical cyclone forecaster (S. Veerasamy) on the Knaff and Zehr (2007) wind-pressure relationships. Specific comments concern nomenclature, operational application, methodology and its performance during the 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma. (J. Knaff)
M. DeMaria continues to serve on the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvements Program (HFIP) committee. (M. DeMaria)
A new study has begun which involves using GOES-11 bands 4 and 5 to assist in retrieving boundary layer moisture depth. Eleven sounding locations were selected across the central plains of the U.S., and raob data from the summers of 2006 and 2007 were collected. GOES data was also obtained so that comparisons can be made between the raob water vapor profiles and the GOES brightness temperatures at those locations. Preliminary results are promising. (D. Lindsey)
A paper entitled “Indication of water vapor transport into the lower stratosphere above midlatitude convective storms: Meteosat Second Generation satellite observations and radiative transfer model simulations,” by M. Setvak, D. Lindsey, R. Rabin, P. Wang, and A. Demeterova was accepted for publication in Atmospheric Research. (D. Lindsey)
A manuscript entitled “The stratospheric impact of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus eruption: Part I, earth-viewing satellite perspective,” by M. Fromm, O. Torres, D. Diner, D. Lindsey, B. Vant Hull, R. Servranckx, E. P. Shettle, and Z. Li, was accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research. (D. Lindsey)
A paper entitled “Satellite Detection of Severe Convective Storms by their Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Cloud Particle Effective Radius and Thermodynamic Phase,” by D. Rosenfeld, W. Woodley, A. Lerner, G. Kelman, and D. Lindsey was accepted to the Journal of Geophysical Research. (D. Lindsey)
Preliminary results of a study assessing the relationship between positive-lightning-dominated storms and satellite-retrieved cloud-top ice crystal size are encouraging. Using GOES data as well as data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) from the summer of 2007, thunderstorms occurring in and around the state of Kansas were analyzed by examining their lightning polarity and ice effective radius. Figure 1 below generally shows that the regions with more positive storms (defined as >25% positive cloud-to-ground lightning) tend to have smaller cloud-top effective radii, although the relationship is not perfect. This suggests that there may be a link between the physical mechanisms determining thunderstorm polarity and cloud-top ice crystal size. This work is being presented as a poster at the annual AMS Meeting in New Orleans in January 2008. (D. Lindsey)
Figure 1. Number and percentage of positive (defined as >25% positive cloud-to-ground strikes) and negative storms, and the average GOES-retrieved ice effective radius for those storms, during the summer of 2007 in 8 geographic regions in and near Kansas.
Henry’s Rule states that a stationary trough over the southwestern U.S. will begin to lift out when an upstream shortwave travels to 2200 km from the stationary trough. Because water vapor imagery is useful in tracking upper tropospheric waves, it will be examined to see if it can be applied to Henry’s rule. Upper-air analyses for the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 seasons were examined and a number of cases selected for further analysis. GOES data and GFS model analyses have begun to be collected for these cases. (J. Dostalek)
As part of the project to develop a quantitative measure of central surface pressure of midlatitude cyclones over the eastern Pacific Ocean from satellite imagery, background reading on neural networks has begun, as well as the collection of surface pressure data which will be used for initial case identification. (J. Dostalek)
The GIMPAP project concerning the research of the warm sector of wintertime midlatitude cyclones has been handed to CSU student Darren Van Cleave as his Masters’ Thesis. Discussions about the research and McIDAS training for Darren have taken place. (J. Dostalek)
A three-year project entitled “Polar Winds from Satellite Imagers and Sounders” has been completed. It was a multi-agency effort investigating the use of satellites to provide wind information over the Polar regions, an area with few surface and radiosonde stations. The RAMMB contribution was to use temperature profiles derived from AMSU-A radiances, along with the assumption of hydrostatic and dynamic balance (geostrophic, linear, and nonlinear), to estimate the wind field. Figures 2 and 3 show the wind speed bias and vector root mean square error (with respect to collocated radiosondes) as a function of pressure for a winter and a summer dataset, respectively. For the entire depth of the atmosphere the three balances had biases between -0.7 and -1.0 m s-1 and root mean square errors between 6 and 7 m s-1. A final report was sent to Jeff Key of CIMSS, who was the PI of the project. (J. Dostalek)
Figure 2. Wind speed bias and vector RMSE between the winds derived using the AMSU radiances and collocated radiosondes for the winter 2004 dataset. Solid lines are the bias and dashed lines are the RMSE, with the exception of the solid blue line, which is the mean radisonde-derived wind speed. The colors correspond to the different balance approximations. The number of comparisons at each level is given on the right hand side of the figure.
Figure 3. Same as Figure 2, but for the summer 2007 dataset.
Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for September and October 2007. The processing should be back on schedule next quarter. (C. Combs)
Processing of wind regime products continues. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for August, September, and October 2007 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for August, September and October 2007. (C. Combs)
Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues. May 1999-2006 and September 1998-2005 have been processed. Routines and code changes for processing GOES 11 data have been completed. In additions, procedures for processing and quality control for hours not normally processed, but in our DVD archive, have been completed. This is required to study marine stratus on an hourly basis instead of the current every other hour. Aug-Sept 2003, May-Sept 2004, and May-Jun 2005 of these in-between hours have been completed. (C. Combs)
A meeting to discuss incorporating the wind regime cloud climatologies into the Cheyenne’s National Weather Service (NWS) office forecast process was held in Cheyenne, WY. Science and Operations Officer, Melissa Goering, Information and Technology Officer, Ray Gomez from Cheyenne, and Deb Molenar and Cindy Combs from CIRA attended. A plan was developed to include the cloud climatologies in Cheyenne’s Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) for a first guess in cloud cover forecast. It will be tested on CIRA’s GFE before transferring to Cheyenne. (C. Combs)
The software to generate three-color (RGB – red, green, blue) images, and to produce a McIDAS AREA file, has been sent to Dr. Randall Alliss, Atmospheric Effects Manager at Northrop Grumman in Chantilly VA. Alliss requested the program from Don Hillger during discussions at the 2007 McIDAS Users’ Group meeting. The CIRA-developed program is unique in that it creates a single 8-bit McIDAS AREA, one that can be easily looped within McIDAS, instead of a 24-bit JPG image that is the output of the McIDAS application titled COMBINE. (D. Hillger)
The latest version of software for Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis has been sent to Matthew Lazzara at UW/CIMSS. The updated software includes some changes needed to facilitate the use of the code by outside users. The code will be used to study fog in the Antarctic using MODIS data. This study, initiated a few years ago, is being pursued as research towards a PhD for Mr. Lazzara. Mr. Lazzara will also help standardize the help files for the code so that it can be made available as McIDAS experimental code for other potential users. (D. Hillger)
The heavy snow event of 20-21 December 2006 along the Colorado Front Range has been chosen as the case with which to begin the combined COSMIC/GOES-ozone upper tropospheric analysis product. The storm had a deep upper-level low (Fig. 1) which will provide a good example for looking at potential vorticity in the upper atmosphere. The COSMIC data from 20 December 2006 has been collected and the code to read and process the COSMIC data is in the initial stages. Initially the ozone data will come from an existing satellite, but the project is being performed in anticipation of the launch of GOES-R. (J. Dostalek)
Last quarter, we continued producing synthetic imagery of hotspots and began an investigation of how GOES-R ABI will sample the data. Several idealized fire “hotspots” were added into the 8 May 2003 severe weather case and delivered to Elaine Prins of CIMSS. A new request came from CIMSS to produce data for the Fire Radiative Power (FRP) for the 8 May 2003 case. FRP’s were calculated from model output and will serve as a truth dataset. This data was delivered to Jay Hoffman of CIMSS. In addition, the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery over the Yucatan Peninsula is complete. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, and D. Hillger)
A meeting took place to discuss a new case over northern Europe. We decided on the so called “Kyrill” storm that produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding location. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. (L. Grasso, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, I. Jankov, M. Sengputa, and R. Brummer)
As part of our collaboration, efforts have begun to produce synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. (L. Grasso, I. Jankov)
The simulation of hurricane Wilma is complete. Production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery will begin. (L. Grasso)
Two versions of simulated full-disk GOES-R ABI band-9 WV (6.95 μm) images were created from Meteosat Second Generation (MGS) images. Using coefficients supplied by Min-Jeong Kim, this can be done by either of two methods. The first method uses the satellite zenith angle for each pixel and the two MSG WV bands (5 and 6). The second method uses regression on two MSG WV (5 and 6) and two MSG IR bands (7 and 8). There are two reasons for generating this particular product: 1) to demonstrate the ability to generate simulated ABI data for GOES-R Risk Reduction activities and related ABI product development, and 2) to provide a WV band in the 6.5 μm to 7.0 μm range, similar to the WV bands on other current geostationary satellites (GOES, Meteosat-7, and MTSAT). The WV imagery from all the geostationary satellites will eventually be composited into a single WV image covering most of the world, which would not be possible using MSG imagery directly, since the two MSG WV bands are on the edges of the desired spectral range and would not allow a good composite image to be created. (D. Hillger)
Figure: Two versions of simulated full-disk ABI WV band 9 created by spectral transformation of MSG full-disk imagery. In the top row are MSG WV bands 5 and 6. In the bottom row the ABI “9a” image was created by incorporating the zenith angle of each pixel and the two MSG bands shown, whereas the ABI “9b” image was created using regression on MSG IR bands 7 and 8 (not shown) in addition to bands 5 and 6. There are slight differences between the two ABI band-9 products, which are hard to see at full-disk resolution. That difference, with a standard deviation of about 1 K and a maximum difference of about 5 K, is a measure of the limit of the ability to simulate this ABI band.
Using coefficients supplied by Min-Jeong Kim, simulated GOES-R ABI infrared images (for bands 7 through 16) were created from Meteosat Second Generation (MGS) infrared images (from bands 4 through 11). This can be done by either of two methods. The first method involves the satellite zenith angle for each pixel and the one or two spectrally-close MSG bands. The second method involves regression on up to four MSG bands for each ABI band. At this point, only the spectral transformation is being considered, not the increase in spatial resolution (from 3 km to 2 km) that will be available with ABI. (D. Hillger)
Figure: Simulated ABI infrared bands 7 through 16 created by spectral transformation of MSG infrared bands 4 through 11. (Note that at this point the images have navigation identical to MSG, without the increase in spatial resolution expected with ABI.)
There is a planned change in the GOES Variable (GVAR) broadcast format that will take place with GOES-O to be launched in 2008. Software at CSU’s Ground Station has been upgraded to accommodate the new GVAR block necessitated by the increased resolution of Band-6 at 13.3 μm. The next step will be to test the new ground station software. Towards that end, test data have been requested from Satellite Operations. The first part of that test was the receipt of a CD with GOES-12 GVAR data to see if the data can be used to test our software, so that simulated GOES-O data in the new GVAR format can be sent next. (D. Hillger, D.G. Reinke)
During this quarter 53 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 165 teletraining signups, 397 students participated. (D. Bikos and J. Braun)
Ongoing development of new VISIT teletraining sessions:
In addition:
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – December 17, 2007. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html
| Sessions | Number of offices attending (signups) | Certificates Issued | |
| Total | 1277 | 6097 | 16827 |
| Enhanced-V | 60 | 194 | 510 |
| Detecting Boundaries | 12 | 62 | 226 |
| Detecting LTO boundaries at night | 17 | 67 | 186 |
| CONUS CG Lightning Activity | 16 | 86 | 285 |
| Using GOES RSO | 26 | 83 | 263 |
| Tropical Satellite Imagery | 8 | 48 | 138 |
| GOES Enhancements in AWIPS | 9 | 47 | 109 |
| Diagnosing Mesoscale Ascent | 21 | 83 | 252 |
| Applying Mesoscale Tools | 5 | 54 | 202 |
| Diagnosing Surface Boundaries | 24 | 106 | 307 |
| QuikSCAT | 11 | 42 | 135 |
| Lake-Effect Snow | 15 | 64 | 210 |
| NDIC | 19 | 40 | 105 |
| Lightning Met 1 | 63 | 331 | 1129 |
| Precip Type | 5 | 44 | 186 |
| Pattern Recognition to MRF | 10 | 70 | 277 |
| HPC Medium Range Forecasting | 15 | 101 | 335 |
| Ingredients based Approach | 36 | 198 | 626 |
| Model Initializations | 20 | 124 | 440 |
| NWP Top 10 Misconceptions | 27 | 148 | 532 |
| GOES Sounder | 29 | 122 | 262 |
| GOES High Density winds | 21 | 71 | 161 |
| Forecasting MCS’s | 12 | 84 | 232 |
| Mesoanalysis using RSO | 49 | 178 | 561 |
| Near-Storm data in WDM | 14 | 91 | 340 |
| POES | 6 | 27 | 63 |
| Lightning Met 2 | 43 | 261 | 731 |
| Ensemble Prediction Systems | 17 | 93 | 303 |
| Eta12 | 14 | 57 | 194 |
| Tornado Warning Guidance 2002 | 13 | 91 | 355 |
| Fog Detection | 11 | 80 | 264 |
| ACARS | 13 | 73 | 204 |
| Cyclogenesis | 67 | 304 | 1011 |
| TRAP | 5 | 20 | 66 |
| Subtropical | 2 | 15 | 54 |
| Mesoscale Banding | 8 | 78 | 302 |
| Lake-Effect Snow II | 15 | 52 | 128 |
| TROWAL | 23 | 127 | 345 |
| Hydro-Estimator | 15 | 58 | 171 |
| GOES Fire Detection | 17 | 69 | 205 |
| GOES-12 | 21 | 76 | 248 |
| RSO 3 (Parts 1 AND 2) | 56 | 222 | 305 |
| Water Vapor Imagery | 52 | 219 | 475 |
| Mesoscale Convective Vortices | 28 | 147 | 410 |
| AWIPS Cloud Height / Sounder | 11 | 55 | 128 |
| QuikSCAT winds | 6 | 27 | 69 |
| Convective Downbursts | 41 | 177 | 401 |
| DGEX | 27 | 215 | 562 |
| Severe Parameters | 16 | 136 | 324 |
| Winter Weather (Parts 1 AND 2) | 40 | 215 | 233 |
| Predicting Supercell Motion | 9 | 103 | 197 |
| Monitoring Moisture Return | 13 | 45 | 127 |
| Pulse Thunderstorms | 3 | 48 | 116 |
| GOES 3.9 um Channel | 5 | 17 | 56 |
| Gridded MOS | 18 | 97 | 147 |
| MODIS Products in AWIPS | 22 | 55 | 144 |
| CRAS Forecast Imagery in AWIPS | 8 | 20 | 37 |
| Orographic Effects | 18 | 51 | 93 |
| NAM-WRF | 14 | 52 | 59 |
| Basic Satellite Principles | 9 | 20 | 29 |
| Warm Season Ensembles | 24 | 60 | 87 |
| Potential Vorticity + Water Vapor | 9 | 49 | 88 |
| Cold Season Ensembles | 14 | 48 | 87 |
VISIT Learning Management System (LMS) Metrics from January 2005 through December 17 2007:
Total Registered for VISIT Courses – 1514
Total Registered 1st Quarter 2008: 148
Total Completions 1st Quarter 2008: 45
Individual VISIT Course Metrics via the LMS:
| Title | Registered (this quarter) | Completions (this quarter) | Registered (total) |
| Anticipating Mesoscale Band Formation in Winter Storms | 32 | 7 | 38 |
| Cyclogenesis | 11 | 2 | 237 |
| GOES 3.9 um channel | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| GOES High Density Winds | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| GOES Sounder Data and Products | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Lake-Effect Snow I | 19 | 4 | 19 |
| Lake-Effect Snow II | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| Lightning Met 1 | 13 | 10 | 155 |
| Lightning Met 2 | 8 | 6 | 93 |
| “RSO II” | 3 | 0 | 113 |
| Mesoscale Convective Vortices | 3 | 2 | 157 |
| Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return | 6 | 3 | 53 |
| Precip Type Forecasting | 10 | 5 | 23 |
| Predicting Supercell Motion | 6 | 0 | 94 |
| QuikSCAT winds | 4 | 0 | 61 |
| Satellite Rainfall Hydro-Estimator | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| TROWAL Identification | 8 | 0 | 22 |
| “RSO 3” | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Utilizing GOES Imagery within AWIPS to Forecast Winter Storms | 4 | 0 | 77 |
| Water Vapor Channel | 6 | 0 | 121 |
| Extended Range Forecasting | 0 | 0 | 166 |
| Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm | 0 | 0 | 33 |
One of the major accomplishments to come out of the VISIT / SHyMet meeting, held in Madison in November, was an outline for the next SHyMet course that will be offered (name in bold and italics is the focal point):
SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through December 18, 2007:
CIRA/VISIT Registered:
133 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (4 this quarter).
19 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (3 this quarter).
NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual session breakdown through December 18, 2007 (for “online” training only).
Total Registered for SHyMet Courses – 1691
Total Registered 1st Quarter 2008 – 104
Individual SHyMet Course Metrics – Numbers Registered:
SHyMet Teletraining Numbers: (Since April 2006)
GOES Sounder…: 53 completions
GOES High Density Winds.: 48 completions
Cyclogenesis: 54 completions.
Severe Weather: 52 completions.
A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.
B. Connell gave a presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver. Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery. (B. Connell)
CIRA gave input to and provided support for VISIT/SHyMET/WMO focus group presentation given by Tony Mostek, NWS Training Division in Boulder, to a group in Cartagena, Colombia in October. (B. Connell)
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3-monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters. The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. Mike Davison from the NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis. Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather. As we move into our northern hemisphere winter, the discussions shift to severe weather activity in the southern hemisphere. The sessions generally run 60 minutes, but occasionally will run 90 minutes. (B. Connell)
The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica. Throughout the Fall, Barbados has been conducting weekly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season. CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the hadar server listed above. (B. Connell)
We have been experiencing increased problems with the Yahoo Messenger voice communications that has been used for these sessions. Tom Whittaker, CIMSS, is providing support for testing the software TeamSpeak to be used as an alternative. (B. Connell)
An email group was established through Yahoo this past fall (WMOSatMetOMM). To date we have ~ 140 members. The list came in extremely handy this past December to pass along information about the operational status of GOES-12 and GOES-10 when GOES-12 experienced outages. (B. Connell)
The Regional Meteorological Training Center of Excellence (RMTCoE) web page is being updated. Watch for the updated information here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell)
GOES-12 imageryfor September through November 2007 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers of Excellence (RMTCoEs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts. The monthly cloud frequency composites for September though November 1997-2007 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for September through November 1997-2007 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.
A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September through November 1999-2007 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September through November 1999-2007 for Barbados.
The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
They were utilized more heavily during December by Central and South American and Caribbean Countries when GOES-12 experienced an outage.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html
(B. Connell, D. Coleman)
The results of the GOES-13 Science Test have been approved for release and are available as NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 125. The GOES-13 Science Test took place during December 2006 and the results from numerous contributors have been compiled over the succeeding months. Editing of the document was performed by Don Hillger and Tim Schmit. Due to the high cost of printing on paper and because of the numerous color images, the Tech Report will be available on CD, as well as available for download on the GOES-13 Science Test page at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/. The document will be sent to all contributors, and the CD will be available to anyone who requests one. (D. Hillger, Tim Schmit)
Figure: Cover of NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 125, “The GOES-13 Science Test: Imager and Sounder Radiance and Product Validations”
An AWIPS product development workstation has been configured. The workstation will serve as the RAMMB product development and dissemination workstation so as not to impact routine AWIPS ingest and display. (D. Molenar)
Published:
Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 17-28.
Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, and G. Goni, 2008: Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 3-16.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Fromm, M., O. Torres, D. Diner, D.T. Lindsey, B. Vant Hull, R. Servranckx, E. P. Shettle, and Z. Li, 2008: The stratospheric impact of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus eruption: Part I, earth-viewing satellite perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.
Hillger, D.W., 2008: GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology-A.
Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting.
Knaff, J.A., R.M. Zehr, 2008: Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships. Weather and Forecasting.
Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2008: An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Sampson, C.R., J.F. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2007: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Weather and Forecasting.
Rosenfeld, D., W. Woodley, A. Lerner, G. Kelman, and D.T. Lindsey, 2008: Satellite Detection of Severe Convective Storms by their Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Cloud Particle Effective Radius and Thermodynamic Phase. Journal of Geophysical Research.
Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008: Indication of water vapor transport into the lower stratosphere above midlatitude convective storms: Meteosat Second Generation satellite observations and radiative transfer model simulations. Atmospheric Research.
Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .
Nonrefereed
Brummer, R.L., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, B.H. Connell, J.F. Dostalek, D. Zupanski, 2008: GOES-R mesoscale product development. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
DeMaria, M., R. DeMaria, D.W. Hillger, R.Mazur, 2008: Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS soundings. 4th AMS Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – (NPOESS), 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, D.T. Lindsey, 2008: Improved calculations of legendre coefficients for use in generating synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-R ABI imagery. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Hillger, D.W., and R.L. Brummer, 2008: Real-time display of experimental GOES-R products. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Knabb, R., M. Mainelli, M. DeMaria, 2008: Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center, Special Symposium on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Lindsey, D.T., 2008: Examining a possible relationship between positive dominated storms and cloud-top ice crystal size. 3rd AMS Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, 2008: Development of severe weather products for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2008: Preparing for GOES-R+ user training and education, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, M. DeMaria, 2008: Quantifying uncertainties in fire size and temperature measured by GOES-R ABI, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Zhu, T., M. Kim, F. Weng, M. Goldberg, A. Huang, M. Sengupta, D.K. Zhou, and B. Ruston, 2008: GOES-R Proxy Data Management System, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
DeMaria, M., 2008: A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.
Hillger, D.W., and T.J. Schmit, 2008: The GOES-13 Science Test: A Synopsis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, J.A., Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting.
DeMaria, M., 2008: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity evolution. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
DeMaria, M., J. Hawkins, J. Dunion, and D. Smith, 2008: Tropical cyclone itensity forecasting using a satellite-based total precipitable water product. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
Knaff, J.A., 2008: Rapid tropical cyclone transitions to major hurricane intensity: Structural evolution of infrared imagery. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
Maclay, K., 2008: Case study of hurricane Wilma’s wind structure evolution using HWRF. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas, 2008: A simple parameterization of sea surface cooling beneath a hurricane inner core. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
Zehr, R.M., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Tropical cyclone environmental vertical wind shear analysis using a microwave sounder. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.
DeMaria, M., S. Kidder, P. Harr, J. Knaff, Chris Lauer, 2008: An improved wind probability program: A Joint Testbed Project update. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.
Knaff, J.A., A. Krautkramer, M. DeMaria, A.B. Schumacher, 2008: New and updated operational tropical cyclone wind products. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.
Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, D.P. Brown, 2008: The NESDIS tropical cyclone formation probability product: An overview of past performance and future plans. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.
| Traveler | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| D. Molenar | Madison, WI | McIDAS Users’ Group Meeting | CoRP Base | 10/14 to 17 |
| D. Hillger | Madison, WI | McIDAS Users’ Group Meeting | CoRP Base | 10/15 to 18 |
| M. DeMaria | Boulder, CO | ESRC Meeting at COMET | 10/31 | |
| J. Knaff | Miami, FL | RMS Expert Eliciation Workshop | CoRP Base | 10/29 to 11/1 |
| M. DeMaria | Madison, WI | VISIT/SHyMet Planning Meetings | CoRP Base | 11/5 to 7 |
| D. Bikos | Madison, WI | VISIT/SHyMet Planning Meetings | VISIT | 11/5 to 7 |
| J. Braun | Madison, WI | VISIT/SHyMet Planning Meetings | VISIT | 11/5 to 7 |
| B. Connell | Madison, WI | VISIT/SHyMet Planning Meetings | SHyMet | 11/5 to 7 |
| B. Connell | Denver, CO | Remote Sensing Class at Metro State College | GIMPAP | 11/12 |
M. DeMaria gave an invited seminar entitled “Dynamic and Thermodynamic Controls on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change” at the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science, as part of their regular Thursday seminar series. About 40 students, faculty and staff were in attendance. (M. DeMaria)
J. Knaff visited NCEP/TPC to better coordinate the operational transition of several tropical cyclone products. A presentation entitled “CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Forecast Tools: Planned Operational Transitions and New Initiatives” was given at NHC. (J. Knaff)
B. Connell gave a presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver. Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery. (B. Connell)
J. Dostalek, currently enrolled in the Ph. D. program in Atmospheric Science at CSU (under Professor Wayne Schubert), gave a presentation on his atmospheric rivers work to Professor Schubert’s research group. In addition, he held a meeting with his committee to update them on his research. (J. Dostalek)
D. Hillger and D. Molenar attended the 2007 McIDAS Users’ Group (MUG) meeting in Madison WI held 16-18 October. The meeting’s main focus was the alpha release of McIDAS-V and the transition to McIDAS-V from McIDAS-X as the current main image manipulation and research tool. Several speakers at the meeting talked of the advantages of McIDAS-V and its 3D capabilities, as well as its ability to handle hyperspectral imagery much more easily than in McIDAS-X. While in Madison, both Hillger and Molenar made connections as well with other researchers and programmers with whom they are working. Molenar is involved with the newly-formed McIDAS Advisory Committee (MAC). Hillger made connections with other researchers and programmers, mainly related to GOES-R Risk Reduction objectives, and to simulations of Advanced Baseline Imager data and products. (D. Hillger, D. Molenar)
D. Hillger attended some of the sessions of an Information Technology (IT) Future Visions IT Symposium held at CSU on 14 September. The opening session was a presentation on Google Earth and Google 3D presented by a representative from the Boulder CO offices of Google Inc. Other sessions included the Future of IT, of the Internet, and of Computer Security. The Symposium is sponsored by CSU’s Information Science and Technology Center (ISTeC) which has hosted similar presentations in the past. (D. Hillger)
Greg Holland (NCAR) visited CIRA to foster better communication and joint collaborations on tropical cyclone research between RAMMB/CSU Atmospheric Science and NCAR. In a similar spirit, a one-day tropical cyclone workshop that will involve RAMMB and CSU tropical cyclone researchers is tentatively planned for 16 January at NCAR. He also gave a seminar entitled “A Revised Hurricane Pressure-Wind Model.” (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, R. Zehr, A. Schumacher, K. Maclay)
D. Hillger participated in a “Writing for the Web” workshop on 14 November. The workshop was sponsored by the Writing Center of Colorado State University (CSU)’s English Department. Writing for the web involves understanding the complex array of influences and expectations of users of web-based materials. (D. Hillger)
D. Hillger attended some of the sessions of an Information Technology (IT) Future Visions IT Symposium held at CSU on 14 September. The opening session was a presentation on Google Earth and Google 3D presented by a representative from the Boulder CO offices of Google Inc. Other sessions included the Future of IT, of the Internet, and of Computer Security. The Symposium is sponsored by CSU’s Information Science and Technology Center (ISTeC) which has hosted similar presentations in the past. (D. Hillger)
J. Knaff and D. Lindsey attended a web based training “webinar” entitled “Communicating Across Cultural Differences” by Judy Tso. (J. Knaff, D. Lindsey)
M. DeMaria completed the mandatory NOAA labor training through the e-learning web site. The course had a recorded version and took about ½ hour to complete. The main topic was how NOAA managers should interact with the NOAA union. There was a short quiz at the end that was not graded. (M. DeMaria)
Several scientists from CIRA in Boulder gave a presentation on possible meteorological applications of Google Earth. They showed several examples of how model output can be overlaid on the high resolution backgrounds provided by the software. M. DeMaria stayed after the presentation to get some guidance on how to get started on incorporating hurricane products into the system. (M. DeMaria)