The Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Tropical Cyclone (TC) production system for the National Data Exploitation (NDE) system first Delivery Algorithm Package v1.2.0 (DAP) was initially tested and delivered on 31 Oct 2013 with follow-up revisions (v1.2.1 – 8 Nov 2013, v1.2.2 – 15 Nov 2013) to the configuration, log and product files. With recommendations from these DAPs, development began on the next versions (v1.2.3 and v1.3.0) during this quarter, which focus interaction with the NDE system and archiving products in the netCDF format. NPP TC v1.2 will begin real-time testing in January 2014. Calibration efforts also began this quarter with newly available MiRS ATMS data. Simulations were initially performed for subsets of data in 2012 and 2013.  (S. Longmore)

The parallel Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) Tropical Cyclone (TC) production system (v1.0) that uses AMSU instrument data from NOAA-18, NOAA-19 and METOPA was also delivered on 27 Nov 2013. Recommendations from the initially delivery are now being incorporated into (v1.1). Calibration efforts began this quarter from archived cases and initial simulations have been performed for 2012 and 2013.  (S. Longmore)

The Statistical Prediction of Intensity from a Consensus Ensemble (SPICE) forecasts, produced as part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), have been verified for the 2013 season.  Results were presented at the 23 October 2013 HFIP teleconference.  Figure 1 shows the mean absolute intensity error (in kt) for SPICE in the purple dashed line, compared with Decay-SHIPS and LGEM in blue and red, respectively.  SPICE had lower mean intensity errors than both of its parent statistical models at longer lead times, in both the Atlantic (left panel) and East Pacific (right panel) basins.  (K. Musgrave)

Figure 1: Mean absolute intensity errors (in kt) for the 2013 hurricane season in the Atlantic (left) and East Pacific (right) basins.

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Product (HFIP): L. Grasso and K. Musgrave are developing statistics for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Based on a comparison between synthetic GOES-13 imagery from HWRF and observed GOES-13 imagery, mean absolute errors, biases, and histograms are being produced. (L. Grasso, K. Musgrave)

Super Typhoon Haiyan Media Coverage: Multiple CIRA-generated images and loops of Super Typhoon Haiyan appeared in the media, including in this article by the Capital Weather Gang from the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/08/super-typhoon-haiyan-one-of-worlds-most-powerful-storms-in-history-from-space/ (D. Lindsey, J. Knaff)

Figure.  VIIRS I-band 5 image of Super Tyhpoon Haiyan a few hours before making landfall in the Philippines. 

Multi-satellite-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) V2.0: The MTCSWA has been running since 2011 in NESDIS operations.  Since that time several aspects of the system have been revisited including how the IR-based flight-level wind proxies are created, how the analysis winds (done at 700 or 850 hPa) is reduced to the surface, and surface inflow angle representation.   The IR-based aircraft wind proxy now uses an algorithm that accounts for the 2-dimensional IR image and was developed using a higher-resolution aircraft-based wind analysis.  That work is being prepared for publication.   The flight-level to surface wind reductions are based on methods developed at NHC and leverage a recently finished Joint Hurricane Testbed project to automate aircraft-based wind analyses in NHC operations (approval pending).  The inflow angles are adopted from a parameterization developed at AOML (Zhang and Uhlhorn 2012) which was based on GPS dropsondes.  The new V2.0 analyses are being tested in the CIRA environment and being disseminated via the TC-realtime web page.   The resulting analyses generally have larger and more physically-based wind asymmetries and provide better estimates of winds at radii beyond 300 km of the TC center.  The MTCSWA (V1.0 and V2.0) for Tropical Cyclone Ian are provided below. The top panel shows how the IR and large-scale analyses compare and the bottom panel compares the current MTCSWA with MTCSWA V2.0. We wish to seek funding for operational transition in FY2014 or 2015. (J. Knaff)

Caption:  MTCSWAs for Tropical Cyclone Ian (SE Pacific) valid 12 UTC 9 January 2014.  Scaled IR image and MTCSWA V2.0 (top panels) and a comparison of MTCSWA V1.0 (bottom left) and MTCSWA V2.0  at smaller scales (bottom right).

Inventory and improvement of CIRA/RAMMB TC Image Archive:   RAMMB has been collecting and archiving 4-km, storm-centered, high-temporal resolution, IR images over global tropical cyclones for over a decade.  This image archive has been used to improve TC forecasting, diagnostic TC structure and various case studies and is an invaluable resource which we are in the process of improving and expanding.    The inventory of images in two of the global basins is complete.   The North Atlantic basin contains data for 286 storms and consists of 130,904 images and the eastern North Pacific basin contains 301 storms, and 94,768 images.   We will work to fill in the missing data and add storms in the next year using the CLASS and CIRA GOES archives.  (J. Knaff)

This quarter, using archived GOES data on CLASS and the CIRA ground station, the CIRA tropical cyclone IR image archive has been expanded to include half-hourly images of east Pacific tropical cyclones for 1997, and 1993 (12336 storm centered images) and historical WV imagery in the Northern Hemisphere now contains data from 1993.  The later imagery has been used for development of the operational tropical cyclone formation product and a tropical cyclone recurvature product.  We will continue to improve these archives in the next quarter.  (J. Knaff)

The hybrid wind speed probability (WSP) product developed under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) provided experimental guidance for the Atlantic, E. Pacific, and N. W. Pacific basins in 2013.  The hybrid WSP differ from the operational WSP in that they use tracks from global model ensembles in lieu of the building track realizations from the official forecast track and climatological forecast errors.  The hybrid WSP are expected to have an advantage over the operational WSP in situations where two or more near-equally likely forecast track scenarios exist for a given TC at a given time.  For example, N. W. Pacific Typhoon Francisco was expected to take either a westward track or a northeast recurvature track on 17 October 2013.  The statistical WSP (Figure, left) were unable to represent both of these track scenarios since it is heavily weighted towards the deterministic official forecast track.  However, the hybrid WSP (Figure, right) show local probability maxima consistent with the two main track scenarios. The hybrid WSP were run in real-time at CIRA and displayed at on the HFIP experimental products web site in 2013.  Verification of the hybrid vs. statistical WSP is currently underway.  Preliminary results show that the hybrid WSP have higher Brier scores, and hence less skill, than the statistical WSP in all three basins.  Development of an improved weighting scheme is being proposed that may improve the hybrid’s performance in 2014. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, K. Musgrave)

Figure.  The statistical (left) and hybrid (right) 34-kt wind speed probabilities for Typhoon Francisco on 17 Oct 2013 at 0 UTC.

Improvements are being made to the current Monte Carlo (MC) wind speed probability model under the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) program.  The starting point for the MC model is the NHC official track and intensity forecasts, which are available at 12 h intervals to 48 h and 24 h intervals from 48 to 120 h. A linear interpolation is used to obtain track and intensity between the forecast times. Verification statistics (DeMaria et al. 2009) show that the errors are larger for the times between the NHC forecast points, and an eastward bias is introduced for re-curving cyclones. This is especially problematic for storms close to the U.S. east coast, but just offshore, because it leads to an underestimate of the probabilities at the coast (e.g., Figure, left).  The linear interpolation has been replaced with a spline fit to correct this problem (Figure, right). (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff) 

Figure.  Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities for Hurricane Earl on 31 August 2010 using a linear interpolation of the official forecast track (left) and a spline fit (right).

CIRA uses temperature profiles retrieved from microwave radiance measurements to compute wind fields in the vicinity of tropical cyclones.  A program was written which reformats the wind retrieval data so that it can be read into a McIDAS MD file and subsequently plotted onto a satellite image.  Figure 1 shows the 850-hPa winds derived from AMSU data aboard NOAA-15 plotted on top of an infrared image of Typhoon Lekima.  The time of the analysis is 1200 UTC on 22 October 2013, and the field of wind barbs has been thinned from the original 0.2° latitude/longitude spacing.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  MTSAT-1R infrared image of Typhoon Lekima at 1130 UTC 22 October 2013.  Overlaid are the 850-hPa wind barbs from the 1200 UTC wind analysis using AMSU radiances from the NOAA-15 satellite.  The intensity of Lekima at this time was 125 kt.

A series of Linux shell scripts, Python scripts, and Fortran programs was developed at CIRA to process in real time Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) soundings from polar-orbiting satellites NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A.  The soundings are used to create 3-D wind fields in the vicinity of tropical cyclones.  The MIRS soundings, based on a 1-D variational approach, are NESDIS’ operational microwave retrievals and are an upgrade to the statistical retrieval technique currently used to generate the wind fields.  Version 1.0 of the AMSU TC algorithm, as well as associated documentation, was delivered to NESDIS’ Office of Satellite and Product Operations for initial testing and integration.  The product is planned to be operational in June 2014.  (J. Dostalek)

The RAMM Branch creates tropical cyclone wind field products which use winds computed from temperature profiles generated from microwave satellite retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU).  Up to this point a statistical retrieval scheme over 10 years old has been used.  In preparation for switching the retrieval scheme to NESDIS’ current operational algorithm, the 1DVAR Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS), a comparison of the two techniques, is being performed.  Data from the 2013 tropical cyclone season are being collected to perform the comparison.  The two retrieval algorithms will be compared on the quality of the vertical temperature profiles as well as the quality of the tropical cyclone wind field products generated by the temperature retrievals.  This project is part of NESDIS/StAR’s Calibration and Validation Program.  (J. Dostalek)

Many tropical cyclone products developed at CIRA and which run operationally at NCEP rely on AMSU brightness temperatures.  These brightness temperatures are converted from their original BUFR format to a text format for further processing.  It was discovered that occasionally extra data was getting through the BUFR conversion step and into the subsequent processing.  Figure 1 presents the problem.  The left panel shows the correct input data for the NOAA-18, 12 UTC analysis of 21 November 2013 over Tropical Storm Melissa — two descending passes.  The right panel shows the incorrect data — the two NOAA-18 passes seen on the left, with the addition of brightness temperatures from an ascending NOAA-18 pass, and data from MetOp-B.  In collaboration with the NOAA staff at the National Hurricane Center and the Office of Science and Technology, the sources of the two problems have been determined and fixes are being developed and implemented.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  NOAA-18 data locations over Tropical Storm Melissa for 12 UTC 21 November 2013.  Left: correct data input consisting of two descending passes.  Right: input data with additional, unwanted brightness temperatures from NOAA-18 and MetOp-B.  The location of Tropical Storm Melissa is given by the red asterisk.

The McIDAS program meanwind.pgm computes the mean vertical wind profile from model data in the vicinity of tropical cyclones and is frequently used during the tropical weather discussions at CIRA.  A problem with processing McIDAS GRID files with duplicate grids was fixed. (J. Dostalek)

In preparation for GOES-R, methods to estimate tropical cyclone size from remotely sensed data were developed and is now being used to scale satellite-based inputs of tropical cyclones.  Tropical cyclone size, which is defined as the radius of where the TC wind field is indistinguishable from the background flow in a climatological environment, is empirically estimated from the principle components of the azimuthally averaged IR brightness temperatures and storm latitude.    The methodology and resulting climatology is in press in the Journal of Climate.  The ratio of the observed to the climatological value of TC size as a function of TC intensity provides a way to normalize the size differences between tropical cyclones.  A before and after scaling example two major hurricanes, one small (Felix 2007) and another large (Katrina 2005) is shown below.  We are investigating if this type of scaling improves the statistical intensity estimates provided by SHIPS, LGEM and RII. (J. Knaff)

Caption: Before (top) and after (bottom) scaling of major hurricanes Katrina (2005), a very large hurricane (left) and Felix (2007), a very small hurricane (right).   The rings shown in the bottom scaled results are 100 km (red) and 300 km (blue).  Note how the regions containing the eyewall following scaling are nearly identical.

2013 HFIP Diagnostics Workshop: K. Musgrave, A. Schumacher and M. DeMaria delivered an oral presentation discussing the current HFIP work done at CIRA.  Musgrave attended the one-day workshop in person in College Park and DeMaria and Schumacher participated remotely from CIRA. Mark and Kate also helped to organize the workshop along with Chanh Kieu from NCEP/EMC and Dave Zelinsky from NCEP/NHC.   (K. Musgrave, A. Schumacher, L. Grasso, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey)

NCAR/NOAA/CSU TC Workshop:Another semi-yearly TC workshop was held 8 January at NCAR in Boulder.  These workshops provide an opportunity for TC researchers at NOAA labs, CIRA, CSU and NCAR to share details of their present work and have been occurring for approximately 5 years.   An agenda from the last meeting is shown below.  (J. Knaff)

RAMMB Science Presentation: D. Hillger and J. Knaff represented StAR/CoRP/RAMMB, giving a presentation to visitor Kevin Kelleher, Acting Director of Global Systems Division (GSD), on 16 August 2013.  The RAMMB talk was one of several presentations on CIRA-related activities.  (J. Knaff, D. Hillger)

Review of RMS Japan Typhoon Wind Model:   J. Knaff traveled to London to participate in a review of the Risk Management Solution, Inc. (RMS) Japan Typhoon Wind Hazards Model.   RMS is actively developing an insurance risk model for Japan that is tied to typhoon wind related risks.  Outside review of the model development is considered part of the vetting process of model development.   The review concentrated on parametric vortex models used, input data and assumption, details of the stochastic track model used and how track information ties into various insured hazards (wind damage, storm surge, water inundation, precipitation, etc…).  The review, which RMS provided travel funding for, was professionally rewarding and scientifically stimulating; providing many new ideas for research.   Two half-hour seminars were also presented discussing current work on TC structure and size estimation using satellite reconnaissance. (J. Knaff)

Interview with The New York Times:   A phone interview with Henry Fountain of the New York Times was provided by J. Knaff.   He is working on an article about how the intensity of tropical cyclones is determined. The issue has come up in part because of apparent discrepancies between intensity estimate of Typhoon Haiyan and actual wind speed measurements in the Philippines.  We discussed the lack of ground truth for tropical cyclone events, the heavy reliance on satellite techniques for intensity information, and operational utility and known biases/errors associated with those techniques.    (J. Knaff)

Coverage of Super Typhoon Haiyan:  Multiple CIRA-generated images and loops of Super Typhoon Haiyan appeared in the media, including in this article by the Capital Weather Gang from the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/08/super-typhoon-haiyan-one-of-worlds-most-powerful-storms-in-history-from-space/ . A second Washington Post article on Super Typhoon Haiyan was published, based on VIIRS Day-Night “band before and after” images, which showed the extensive areas of power outages along the track of the storm in the Philippines (see  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/12/lights-out-in-tacloban-satellite-image-before-and-after-typhoon-haiyan/ ) One post on CIRA’s facebook page received over 19,000 views after being re-shared many times. (J. Knaff, D. Lindsey, S. Miller)

Environment Canada/NOAA Marine Team Conference Call:  J. Knaff participated in a conference call to discuss the joint Environment Canada/NOAA collaboration on marine analysis and forecast products.  The RAMMB project involves coordination with the Canadian Hurricane Center on evaluation of RGB Air Mass and tropical cyclone surface wind products during extra-tropical transition as storms move up the U.S. East Coast towards eastern Canada. The quiet 2013 Atlantic hurricane season did not provide any cases for examination, but a framework for product evaluation has been set up that will be utilized in 2014.  (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

New NSSL WRF-ARW Synthetic Imagery Interpretation Tool: NCAR Command Language visualization tools will be used on 4-km NSSL WRF-ARW data once events are identified for further study. Model output from the real-time runs are provided to CIRA daily for the purpose of making synthetic GOES-R imagery.  This visualization tool will be used to make oblique cross sections that will be necessary for study and shown in subsequent publications.  Features of interest include vertically propagating or trapped waves associated with mountains or lee-side cold fronts.  Our goal is to use cross section depictions to aid in the interpretation of satellite imagery.  Figure 1 shows an east-west cross section over western Montana (see Fig. 2).  As is seen in the figure, surfaces of potential temperature suggest winds flowing downslope near the surface from grid points 15 < X < 20 while ascent is indicated in the same range near 400 hPa. We are working with Scott Dembek and Bob Rabin to acquire fields of wind from the NSSL WRF model.  (D. Bikos)

Figure 1. East-west vertical cross section over western Montana of potential temperature. 

Figure 2. Location of east-west vertical cross section line (red) over western Montana, model elevation shown in m. 

Satellite Analysis of the Colorado Flood:  D. Lindsey is working with a team of researchers from Colorado State Univ., NCAR, Univ. of Colorado, and NOAA to study the September Front Range flood event.  GOES IR data provided valuable insight into the nature of the precipitation, including separating the convective from the stratiform periods.  A manuscript is being drafted for submission to BAMS.  (D. Lindsey) Satellite Analysis Branch Help:  D. Hillger is helping update “legacy” software provided long ago to the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB).  G. Gallina of SAB is rebuilding satellite products that were provided by the StAR/RAMMB many years ago to look at volcanic ash and fog/stratus.  Updated software has been provided and assistance will be rendered as needed to help SAB continue their product generation not only with GOES imagery but also with MTSAT and MSG imagery as well.  (D. Hillger)

Sky Cover Forecasts:  D. Lindsey is currently working a project to help improve NWS forecasts of sky cover.  Forecasters have noted that sky cover is one of their more difficult grids to populate, mainly due to the lack of good cloud cover forecasts from models.  The method involves using cloud particle output from high resolution models (<= 4km grid spacing), such as the NSSL WRF and the NAM CONUS Nest, and performing spatial averaging in order to make the sky cover more consistent with the grids the NWS is required to populate and more consistent with GOES observations.  See the example Figure below.  The next step is converting the data to AWIPS format so it can be used directly in the NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE).  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  An example of forecast sky cover valid at 1500 UTC on 2 December 2013, based on a 15-hour forecast of the NAM CONUS Nest model. 
The colors represent the percentage of the sky covered with clouds.

GOES-13 1-minute Data to support OWLeS:  D. Lindsey called several GOES-13 Super Rapid Scan Operations (SRSO) to support the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems field project.  The data collected from the groundstation at CIRA was provided in real time to the SPC, the WPC, and the AWC, real-time web animations were made available, and the archived data will be provided to the Ontario Winter Lake effect Systems (OWLeS) researchers for post-event analysis.  An example loop is here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/7jan13_srso_vis&image_width=1020&image_height=720&no_toggle=1 (D. Lindsey)

New Website/Blog Launched for Arctic Applications of VIIRS: The VIIRS Day/Night Band offers many benefits to users of satellite data in the Arctic. The ability to produce useful visible wavelength imagery during the long Arctic winter nights is of great benefit to forecasters in the region. To highlight the many uses of nighttime and low-light visible imagery for these users, a new website and blog has been launched, called “Seeing the Light: VIIRS in the Arctic”. Blog posts will focus on applications of the Day/Night Band (DNB), its sister imagery product, Near Constant Contrast (NCC), and the combination of these imagery products with other VIIRS bands. Blog posts to date have introduced users to DNB and NCC imagery, and discussed the ability of VIIRS to detect city lights, oil and gas operations, light emissions from volcanic eruptions, ships at night, the aurora, and clouds, snow and ice even during new moon (no moonlight) conditions. The link to the website is: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/alaska/blog/ (C. Seaman, K. Micke)

On the afternoon of 28 October 2013, plume-like streaks were detected by geostationary and polar orbiting satellites over southeast Ontario, Canada. These streaks were characterized by warmer temperatures near 3.9 µm (Fig. 1a) and enhanced reflectivity in the visible bands (Fig. 1b). Further, these streaks were part of a low-level liquid water cloud layer. Due to the similarity of the plume-like features to ship tracks, a local source of emitted aerosols was suspected. Such a source was identified. As a result, this event provides further support for the ability of locally enhanced aerosol loading to alter microphysical characteristics of clouds. Ship tracks and pyro-cumulus are known examples of this type of interaction. In addition, the plume-like streaks could be used indirectly to identify the location of the source of the emitted particles. This study contains a collaborative effort with Brian Stocks, Wildfire Investigations Ltd.128 Chambers Avenue, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A4V4, Canada, brianstocks@sympatico.ca
(L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, C. Seaman)

Figure 1: (A) Band I4, 3.9 µm from NPP-VIIRS and (B) Natural color composite from NPP-VIIRS using bands I1, I2, and I3 over southeast Ontario, Canada on 28 October 2013 at 18:53 UTC. Plume-like streaks are evident in the region bounded by the white box. Closer view of region bounded by the white box appears below.

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

16 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 21 teletraining signups, 39 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  158
Completions:  96

LMS totals from January 2005 through 31 December 2013:
Registrations:  6726
Completions: 4583

Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training forum:

• VISIT Satellite Chat – Virtual interactive training sessions that are intended to:

a) be brief, target length of 30 minutes.
b) demonstrate satellite products that can be applied to operational forecasting.
c) exchange ideas across both operational and academic sides.
d) identify new training topics based on specific participant needs.
e) incorporate seasonal examples that are timely, and use real-time data (where applicable).

Chat sessions during this quarter included a mixture: South Dakota blizzard, Northeast Severe Weather, Super Typhoon Haiyan, Lake-effect snow, and orographic cirrus. 

As of 31 December 2013, there have been 23 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 63 NWS forecast office signups.  We started in February 2012 with one morning chat session and in September went to two chat sessions: one in the morning and one in the afternoon.  This allowed for more flexibility in participation from NWS offices, as well as other researchers and trainers.

Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4-km WRF-ARW model in temperature forecasting related to sky cover.

VISIT web-page traffic:

• The following is a summary of VISIT web-page traffic for the quarter (from Google Analytics), there were 1795 pageviews for the quarter:

Collaboration:

D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training communities.  The blog averages about 400 pageviews per month.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – 31 December 2012.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

Meetings and Calls

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on October 2, 30 and December 19.

E. Szoke, D. Bikos and B. Connell attended the GOES-R Proving Ground conference calls.

D. Bikos and E. Szoke attended the National Weather Association annual meeting in Charleston, SC in October.  The following presentations were delivered by E. Szoke:

• Oral keynote address on the September 2013 flooding in Colorado.
• Poster and talk  – “An overview of CIRA Proving Ground NWS Interactions”
• Oral – “Simulated Satellite Imagery: A New Tool for Cloud Cover Forecasting”

D. Bikos delivered a poster presentation titled “The SHyMet GOES-R Instruments and Products training course, and other related satellite training for operational forecasting.”

1. Preparations for proposed SHyMet course:  GOES-R Instruments and Products

Highlights:
At the COMET meeting on 6 and 7 November 2013 there was positive discussion on the materials that the various training groups offer to various user groups that GOES-R and JPSS would like to reach.  This GOES-R course draws directly on expertise from the Cooperative Institutes and will meet forecaster user needs.  It will be complementary to GOES-R material offered through COMET

Ray Hoff (University of Maryland, Baltimore County) was contacted to enquire about GOES-R Air Quality materials that can be included in this SHyMet course.  Ed Szoke and Scott Lindstrom (CIMSS) will meet with Ray at the AMS conference in Atlanta in February to view the modules and discuss logistics.

Final preparations were made for a new 30-minute training:  “Identifying Snow with Daytime RGB Satellite Products”
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/training_sessions/identifying_snow_with_daytime_rgb_satellite_products It is being offered for 4 sessions during January 2014.  A recording will then be made and posted on the web page and will be linked to the LMS.

Background information and related updates:
A preliminary organizational call was held between the SHyMet teams at CIRA and CIMSS 19 November 2012 to discuss how the course should be structured and executed, what in-house training modules were candidates for the new course, and how do we decide which external training modules to include in the course.  A second call was held on 30 November 2013 and invited Satellite Champions, COMET, SPoRT, and other researchers to provide input on training that they have that would be relevant for the new SHyMet course.  More recently, a conference call was held on 22 April 2013 to consider what training modules could be included, as well as identification of potential training material.

Course structure:  A customized / personalized training experience with training needs assessed during signup.

Course execution:  Assign the individual modules at the time of registration.  The web-pages will group the various topics but we will ask the student at the time of registration their training needs, then determine which modules to assign.

Current list of in-house modules (containing 70% or more GOES-R PG product content):

• Introduction to GOES-R (abbreviated version of GOES-R 101)
• Forecaster Training for the GOES-R Fog/low stratus (FLS) Products.
• GOES-R severe weather applications demonstrated with synthetic imagery (new module to be developed by D. Bikos based primarily on existing training content).
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.
• The UW NearCasting Product.
• Convective Cloud-top Cooling and UW Convective Initiation.

Potential External Modules:

A. GOES-R Satellite Liaisons (Amanda Terborg, Michael Folmer, and Chad Gravelle):

• Cloud Top Cooling
• RGB air mass / dust product
• CIMSS ABI WES case content
• Fog / low stratus (already included above)
• 4 synthetic imagery VISIT training sessions (severe weather, cyclogenesis, orographic cirrus, and low cloud/fog).

B. COMET (Patrick Dills and Wendy Abshire)

• GOES-R Benefits of next generation monitoring (multiple parts).
• ABI module (early 2013 release).
• Companion module for GLM (future release).

There will be training modules that cover Air Quality (collaboration with Ray Hoff) and Space Weather (collaboration with Steve Hill) included.

Potential reference material containing less than 70% GOES-R content:
RGB products explained, Atmospheric dust, Forecasting dust storms, Volcanic ash observation tools and dispersion models, GOES channel selection (version 2), GOES channel selection (version 2),  Satellite monitoring of atmospheric composition, and Multispectral applications: monitoring the wildland fire cycle.

We will need introductory modules to briefly give an overview of how GOES-R preparations got to where they are now. We will include why there might be more than one product, as well as what to expect before and after launch.

2. The following 4 courses continue to be administered:

1. SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.  Released March 2011. Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

      Core courses:

• Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
• Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
• GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
• Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

Optional courses:

• Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
• The UW Convective Initiation Product.
• Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
• Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

2. Tropical SHyMet.  Released August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

3. SHyMet For Forecasters Learning Plan:  Released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp:

This Development Plan includes:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
9. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

4. SHyMet Intern Learning Plan: Released April 2006
The SHyMet Intern course consists of 9 modules.
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:

Non-NOAA:
Intern:  44 Registrations; 14 known completions

3. International training that builds on efforts of the VISIT and SHyMet Programs, and enhances communication and exchange of information with international training partners:

CIRA, NOAA, WMO, and the WMO Centers of Excellence in Costa Rica, Barbados, Brazil, and Argentina hosted a virtual training on GEONETCast consisting of 3 sessions on 3, 4, and 5 December 2013. The sessions were presented in both English and Spanish (for a total of 6 sessions).  The goals of the training were:  to make countries more aware of products available through GEONETCast; to expand the use of GEONETCast-Americas; and to start thinking about GOES-R.  The topics included an introduction to the capabilities of GEONETCast, disaster mitigation products, and software to view products.  Content from GOES-R 101 was used for the “Introduction to GOES-R” presentation.  McIDAS-V was one of the software packages that was highlighted.  The audience expressed interest on more GOES-R and JPSS training as well as training on McIDAS-V software.  (B. Connell)

4. Community Outreach: 

After-school weather club: Scientists at CIRA and CSU students – all members of the local AMS chapter of Northern Colorado – FORTCAST (Fort Collins Atmospheric Scientists) volunteered for the weekly after-school weather club on Tuesdays for Putnam Elementary (K-5).  This fall session ran for 8 weeks during October through early December 2013.  There was a 90 minute session each week.  Sessions included helping with homework and leading an activity.  The topics covered included rain, wind speed, clouds, temperature, hail, frost (and ice cream!), and things that spin as well as measurements that are associated with these weather occurrences.  Volunteers included Bernie Connell, Matt Rogers, Kristi Gebhart, Erin Dagg, and James Ruppert.  Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great!  (B. Connell)

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (24 October, 20 November, and 6 December 2013) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ).   We used GoToWebinar for voice over the Internet.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the International Desk at NCEP, NWS Training Division, and UCAR/IA-NWS as well as outside the U.S.: Antigua and Barbuda , Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Cayman, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ghana, Haiti, Honduras, Panamá, Peru, St. Lucia, Suriname, and Uruguay.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters and other trainers.  All sessions were well attended as represented by 12, 9, and 13 countries reaching 33, 16, and 20 participants respectively for October, November, and December.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussions.  Typically, the sessions include a look at Water Vapor imagery for a synoptic overview of Central America and the Caribbean as well as for South America.  The IR 10.7 um imagery and Visible imagery are used to look more closely at weather features.  We look at MJO patterns and the outlook, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) patterns, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and anomalies.  Imagery from a recent weather feature is often highlighted.  October and November showed seasonal changes in SST, TPW, and water vapor patterns.  In November, we looked at cases of a front and squall line in N. Argentina and S. Brazil with heavy rain and hail, and an MCS in Peru viewed with high resolution day-night visible and infrared VIIRS imagery.  Recordings of the three sessions as well as previous sessions can be found here:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/fg_recording.asp  (B. Connell)

During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 4-week archive feature:  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/   (B. Connell)

GEONETCast Americas VLab Training Channel
As a follow-up to the WMO NOAA Train the Trainer Workshop on GEONETCast preceeding the NOAA Satellite Conference in Camp Springs, Maryland in April 2013, and in response to WMO user surveys CIRA, NOAA, WMO, and the WMO Centers of Excellence in Costa Rica, Barbados, Brazil, and Argentina hosted a virtual training on GEONETCast.  It consisted of 3 sessions on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th of December 2013.  Regions III and IV have a large percentage of Spanish speaking countries and we wanted to reach both English and Spanish users, so the sessions were presented in both languages (for a total of 6 sessions).  The goals of the training were:  to make countries more aware of what is available through GEONETCast, to expand the use of GEONETCast-Americas, and to start thinking about GOES-R.  The topics included an introduction to the capabilities of GEONETCast, disaster mitigation products, and software to view products.  (B. Connell)

The sessions drew a lot of interest as people from 29 countries participated: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Cape Verde, Cayman, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Germany, Ghana, Great Britain, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panamá, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Suriname, Switzerland, the USA, and Uruguay.  There were 111 individuals, which included speakers, organizers, and participants.  PowerPoint presentations and session recordings have been posted on the web pages.  (B. Connell)

As the GEONETCast Americas web page points out: “This user-driven, user-friendly and low-cost information dissemination service aims to provide global information as a basis for sound decision-making in a number of critical areas, including public health, energy, agriculture, weather, water, climate, natural disasters and eco-systems. Accessing and sharing such a range of vital data will yield societal benefits through improved human health and well-being, environment management and economic growth.”  We plan to continue to incorporate this theme in our future training events.  (B. Connell)

Testing of 16 M-band VIIRS EDRs: C. Seaman has worked closely with Ryan Williams (NASA/GSFC) to checkout EDRs produced from all 16 VIIRS M-bands. Testing of the software that generates Imagery EDRs was performed offline. Currently, only 6 M-bands are produced as EDRs operationally. The testing by C. Seaman and R. Williams shows that the software is capable of producing valid EDRs from all 16 M-bands, and has the flexibility that was intended. The Imagery Team is using the results of these tests to push for EDRs from all 16 M-bands to be produced at some point in the future.  (C. Seaman)

VIIRS Direct Broadcast Imagery Display:  VIIRS DNB imagery, obtained from a University of Wisconsin server with Direct Broadcast imagery, is now being displayed on one of the JPSS computers that also features VIIRS imagery from their PEATE/McIDAS server.  An example of a composite DNB image is shown below, composed of VIIRS imagery from portions of 4 Suomi-NPP orbits over CONUS.  The advantage of the Direct Broadcast imagery is the much lower latency than VIIRS imagery on PEATE or GRAVITE.  These new images are available online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp where other “real-time” VIIRS imagery processed at CIRA is currently displayed.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1:  Composite of direct-broadcast VIIRS Day-Night-Band imagery (daytime example) captured from the University of Wisconsin and displayed on CIRA’s “Suomi NPP VIIRS Online.”

VIIRS Imagery Latency; Next Step:  IDPS, DPA, and DPE leads met on 26 November 2013 to discuss the VIIRS Imagery Team request for lower latency VIIRS imagery via GRAVITE.  The group agrees that they would like very much to help, but the primary concern is the impact to the IDPS performance, as the additional data flow to GRAVITE could potentially result in backlogs and impact all of the IDPS subscriptions, including those to NDE.  The Ground Project manager has been asked to assess the potential impacts to the IDPS performance, and determine how much additional data flow to GRAVITE can be supported.  And, IDPS suggested considering use of the IDPS Integration and Test (I&T) string for getting access to these data.  GRAVITE has real time access to these data, with zero latency, and these data flows do not impact the operational string.  The I&T string is virtually the same as the IDPS ops string, though it does not share the same requirements for performance and operational availability, so there is a risk of not having access to these data at all times.  J. Feeley (Aerospace/NASA) will continue to follow developments on this.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar, C. Seaman, S. Finley, R. Brummer)

VIIRS vs. AVHRR Coverage and Spatial Resolution: Images were prepared by the VIIRS Imagery Team to answer a request by M. Goldberg for examples of both a swath width comparison and a spatial resolution at swath edge comparison of VIIRS vs. AVHRR.  The images show the 3000 km swath width for VIIRS vs. the 2800 km swath width for AVHRR, and the ~1.5 km spatial resolution for M-band VIIRS at swath edge vs. the 5.5 km spatial resolution for AVHRR LAC at swath edge.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure 1a: VIIRS vs. AVHRR swath width comparison

Figure 1b: VIIRS vs. AVHRR spatial resolution at swath edge

GOES-R Post Launch Testing:  D. Hillger participated in a teleconference for the reorganized/inaugural meeting of the GOES-R Product Operations Science Support Team (POSST) held 29 October 2013.  The POSST will specifically address the 6-month Post Launch Testing (PLT) of GOES-R, a process that has been successful in the checkout of the current GOES series.  The process, however, appears to have become much more complex and involves many more people and teams than with current GOES.  (D. Hillger)

Traffic to the RAMMB web site continued to be heavy in 2013, with the majority of the traffic concentrated on several of our real-time data sites. All the following data are from 1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013, the “official” end of the Atlantic hurricane season. During that time, the site received over 4.4 million page views from almost 330,000 individual visitors (see Figure 1). While there was more traffic during the Atlantic tropical season as usual, the traffic did not increase as significantly as most years due to the relatively mild Atlantic season. (K. Micke)

Figure 1: Detailed statistics for the entire RAMMB site from 1 Dec 2012 – 30 Nov 2013.

The most popular section of the site, accounting for 57% of all traffic, continues to be RAMSDIS Online (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/). This site shows real-time satellite data products for various parts of the world. The most popular part of this site was the RMTC page that serves data for Central and South America (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). This single page accounted for 11.88% of the pageviews for the entire server this past year. (K. Micke)

The Tropical Cyclone Real-time site (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/) also continues to be extremely popular, accounting for over 35% of the server traffic throughout the year. During any tropical cyclone activity around the world the site often receives significant spikes in traffic. (K. Micke)

The RAMMB web site continues to have a global reach, with 70% of traffic coming from outside the US. When viewed by sub-continental regions (see Figures 2 and 3), the majority of traffic comes from North America, but South and Central America, as well as Asia provide a very significant amount of the overall traffic.  (K. Micke)

Figure 2: Map of sub-continental regions accessing the RAMMB site from 1 Dec 2012 – 30 Nov 2013.

Figure 3: Detailed statistics of sub-continental regions accessing the RAMMB site from  1 Dec 2012 – 30 Nov 2013.

• All linux system backups have been transitioned to 2 new NAS devices
• Additional NAS devices have been configured for TC & JPSS groups
• 2 new tropical processing systems have been configured
• Work on real-time AWIPS II Wx Lab system continues.  System was fully operational with real-time SBN and CIRA experimental product ingest; latest upgrade broke LDM.  Efforts are underway to fix.
• New 64 bit RedHat 6 system has been configured in prep for AWIPS II OB 14.1. That build should help existing performance issues.
• Developed code to convert all ORI products to AWIPS II format & disseminate via new AWIPS II LDM server. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Schmit, T.J., S.J. Goodman, D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, K.M. Bedka, M.M. Gunshor, J.L. Cintineo, C.S. Velden, A.S. Bachmeier, S.S. Lindstrom, and C.C. Schmidt, 2013: GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations to Prepare for GOES-R. J. Appl. Remote Sens. 7:1, 073462 doi: 10.1117/1.JRS.7.073462

Seaman, C.J. and S.D. Miller, 2013: VIIRS Captures Aurora Motions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94:10, 1491-1493, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00221.1

Zhang, M., M. Zupanski, M-J Kim, J.A. Knaff, 2013:  Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances in the TC Core Area with NOAA Operational HWRF (2011) and a Hybrid Data Assimilation System: Danielle (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev., 141:11, 3889–3907.  doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00340.1

• Nonrefereed

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Ali, M., N. Sharma, J.A. Knaff, 2014: A Soft-computing Cyclone Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric Science Letters.

DeMaria, M., C.R. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, K.D. Musgrave, 2014: Is Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Improving? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Jin, Y., S. Wang, J. Nachamkin, J.D. Doyle, G. Thompson, L.D. Grasso, T. Holt, J. Moskaitis, H. Jin, R.M. Hodur, Q. Zhao, M. Liu, and M. DeMaria, 2014: Evaluation of Microphysical Parameterizations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Johnson, R.H, R.S. Schumacher, J.H. Ruppert, Jr., and D.T. Lindsey, 2014: Meteorology of the Waldo Canyon Fire. Monthly Weather Review.

Knaff, J.A., S. Longmore, D.A. Molenar, 2014: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. Journal of Climate.  

Lang, T.J., S.A. Rutledge, B. Dolan, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, D.T. Lindsey, 2014: Lightning in Wildfire Smoke Plumes Observed in Colorado during Summer 2012. Mon.Wea.Rev.

Tourville, N., G. Stephens, M. DeMaria, 2014: Cloudsat and A-TRAIN Observations of Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

• Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., D. Bikos, E. Szoke, S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, A. Mostek, B. Motta, T. Schmit, M. Davison, K. Caesar, V. Castro, L. Veeck, 2014: Satellite Training Activities: VISIT, SHyMet and WMO VLab. AMS Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 2-6 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., C. Seaman, C. Liang, S.D. Miller, D.T. Lindsey, T. Kopp, 2014: Suomi NPP VIIRS Near Constant Contrast (NCC) Imagery. AMS Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 2-6 February, Atlanta, GA.

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, D. Bikos, E. Szoke, 2014: Using Simulated Satellite Imagery to Visualize Model Forecasts. AMS 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 2-6 February, Atlanta, GA.

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, E. Szoke, 2014: A New Look at the GOES-R ABI Split Window Difference for Convective Initiation Forecasting. AMS 10th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 2-6 February, Atlanta, GA.

Szoke, E., R.L. Brummer, H. Gosden, C. Seaman, D. Bikos, S.D. Miller, M. DeMaria, D.T. Lindsey, D.W. Hillger, and D.A. Molenar, 2014: More opportunities for forecaster interaction for future operational satellite products – CIRA’s activities in the GOES-R and JPSS Proving Grounds. AMS 4th Conference on Transition of Research to Operations, 2-6 February, Atlanta, GA.

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Apodaca, K., M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and L.D. Grasso, 2014: Lightning data assimilation into a quasi-operational numerical weather prediction model through hybrid variational-ensemble methods, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2014:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, D. Bikos, 2014: Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery, Monthly Weather Review.  

Johnson, R., R. Schumacher, J. Ruppert, and D.T. Lindsey, 2014: Meteorology of the Waldo Canyon Fire, Monthly Weather Review.

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, J.F. Dostalek, J. Kerkmann, 2014: A New Look at the Split Window Difference to Diagnose Deepening Low-Level Water Vapor. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Quiring, S., A. Schumacher, and S. Guikema, 2014: Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into Decision Support Applications, Bull. of the American Meteorological Society.

Schmit,T.J., S.J. Goodman, D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, K.M. Bedka, M.M. Gunshor, J.L. Cintineo, C.S. Velden, A.S. Bachmeier, S.S. Lindstrom, and C.C. Schmidt, 2014: GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations to Prepare for GOES-R. JARS.

Schmit, T.J., S.J. Goodman, M. Gunshor, J. Sieglaff, A. Heidinger, S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, A. Terborg, J. Feltz, K. Ba, S. Sudlosky, D.T. Lindsey, R. Rabin, C. Schmidt, 2014: Rapid Refresh Information of Significant Events: Preparing Users for the Next Generation of Geostationary Operational Satellites. Bull. of the American Meteorological Society.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2014: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

• Nonrefereed 

Beven, J.L., M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, A.B. Schumacher, C. Velden, S.A. Monette, J.P. Dunion, G.J. Jedlovec, K.K. Fuell, and M.J. Folmer, 2014: The Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Chirokova, G., M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria, J.F. Dostalek, J.L. Beven, 2014: Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting with JPSS imager and Sounder Data. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

DeMaria, M., A.B. Schumacher, 2014: A Quasi-Equilibrium Theory for Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Dostalek, J.F., G. Chirokova, K. Musgrave, M. DeMaria, 2014: A Comparison of Two Microwave Retrieval Schemes in the Vicinity of Tropical Storms. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, S. Longmore, R. DeMaria, 2014: Improving Tropical Cyclone Guidance Tools by Accounting for Variations in Size. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Knaff, J.A., S. Longmore, R. DeMaria, 2014: An Improved Method to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Fields from Routine Satellite Reconnaissance. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Musgrave, K.D., M. DeMaria, 2014: Further Development of a Statistical-Dynamical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, L. Ma, H. Syed, 2014: Updates to the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product. 31st Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 30-March-4 April, San Diego, CA.

Awards and Citations:

Mark DeMaria Finalist for the Samuel J. Heyman Career Achievement Medal: Mark DeMaria, Chief of NESDIS/STAR’s Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, was a finalist for the Samuel J. Heyman Career Achievement Medal, an award that recognizes a federal employee for significant accomplishments throughout a lifetime of achievement in public service.  DeMaria traveled to the White House on 23 October 2013, along with the other finalists, and was personally congratulated by President Obama (see the photos below).   Mark is being recognized for pioneering models to better forecast the path and intensity of hurricanes during the last three decades, which helped communities and first responders prepare for severe storms and saved countless lives, homes, and businesses.  More information can found here: http://servicetoamericamedals.org/SAM/finalists/cam/demaria.shtml  (M. DeMaria)

Figure 1a. Photo of Mark DeMaria being congratulated by President Obama.

23 October 2013

Figure 1b. Finalists for the Samuel J. Heyman Service to America Medals with President Obama. 

Presentations:

NOAA Central Library Brownbag Seminar: D. Hillger listened to a NOAA Library-sponsored Brown Bag Seminar on 5 December 2013.  Title of the presentation was “Plastic pollution in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre,” given by speaker, M. Goldstein, California Sea Grant, as part of the 2013 Sea Grant Knauss Fellows Brown Bag Seminar Series.  (D. Hillger)

NOAA/CREST Seminar: D. Hillger from NOAA/RAMMB participated remotely in the NOAA/CREST Seminar given by Charles J. Vörösmarty, Director, CUNY Environmental CrossRoads Initiative about “An Integrated Regional Earth System Model: Water Resource Assessment and Environmental Solutions Platform for the US Northeast.”  (D. Hillger)

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, K.D. Musgrave, A.B. Schumacher, R. DeMaria, L.D. Grasso, S. Longmore, and C. Slocum, 2013: 2013 NESDIS HFIP Activities. HFIP teleconference, 23 October.

McIDAS Users’ Group Annual Meeting presentation: D. Hillger participated in the 2013 McIDAS Users’ Group (MUG) meeting held 9-10 September 2013, giving a presentation on the use of VIIRS imagery within McIDAS.  The presentation was about sharing ideas and software for dealing with VIIRS imagery in a display and analysis system that is not fully functional for VIIRS.  Side meetings discussed some of the remaining issues with VIIRS display, and the McIDAS team at Wisconsin was very helpful in offering access to their servers and software.  Other contacts with attendees from ESPC were made to work on common issues in their operational processing of VIIRS.  In addition, Hillger attended a McIDAS Advisory Committee (MAC) meeting one evening, a group which is tasked to help guide future McIDAS development.  He also met with all the federal employees in ASPB during this trip.  (D. Hillger)

Review of Japan Typhoon Wind Model: J.A. Knaff presented two half-hour seminars to the Risk Management Solution (RMS) Review on current work on tropical cyclone structure and size estimation using satellite reconnaissance. (J. Knaff)

Picture from the RMS Typhoon Wind Hazard Model review taken approximately at 4pm (dark) 12 December 2013.

Community Outreach:
After-school weather club: Scientists at CIRA and CSU students – all members of the local AMS chapter of Northern Colorado – FORTCAST (Fort Collins Atmospheric Scientists) volunteered for the weekly after-school weather club on Tuesdays for Putnam Elementary (K-5).  This fall session ran for 8 weeks during October through early December 2013.  There was a 90-minute session each week.  Sessions included helping with homework and leading an activity.  The topics covered included rain, wind speed, clouds, temperature, hail, frost (and ice cream!), and things that spin as well as measurements that are associated with these weather occurrences.  Volunteers included Bernie Connell, Matt Rogers, Kristi Gebhart, Erin Dagg, and James Ruppert.  Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great! (B. Connell)

Travel

The RAMMB prepared and presented remotely via telephone, a PowerPoint presentation for three Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) visitors to NOAA in Washington DC on 4 December 2013.  The visitors were Sung-Rae Chung, Sungwook Hong, and Hyunjong Oh.  Presenters were D. Hillger, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey, and S. Miller.  The RAMMB presentation was made available to the KMA visitors, who asked many questions and were interested in future collaboration.  Of particular interest were GOES-R and Proving Ground aspects, which the visitors can apply to their GEO-Kompsat-2B to be launched in 2017, carrying an ABI-like imaging instrument.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, S. Miller, R. Brummer)

Professor T. Krishnamurti from Florida State University visited CIRA and the CSU Atmospheric Science Department on November 20th. He gave a joint CIRA-CSU seminar on Rossby wave trains triggered by the Indian Monsoon and their remote influence, including melting of Artic sea ice. There may be ways to track these events using model and satellite data, and they might have influences on other phenomena, including African easterly waves. There were also interesting informal discussions on tropical meteorology and related topics with Prof. Krishnamurti and Bill Gray, both of whom had worked with Carl Rossby and other well-known meteorologists such as Joanne Simpson, Herbert Riehl and Eric Palmen at the University of Chicago in the 1950s. (J. Knaff, K. Musgrave, M. DeMaria)

Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited CIRA on Wednesday Oct. 30 to discuss various projects in which he is collaborating with RAMMB. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

Interview with The New York Times:   A phone interview with Henry Fountain of the New York Times was provided by J. Knaff.   He is working on an article about how the intensity of tropical cyclones is determined. The issue has come up in part because of apparent discrepancies between intensity estimate of Typhoon Haiyan and actual wind speed measurements in the Philippines.  We discussed the lack of ground truth for tropical cyclone events, the heavy reliance on satellite techniques for intensity information, and operational utility and known biases/errors associated with those techniques.   (J. Knaff)

Coverage of Super Typhoon Haiyan:  Multiple CIRA-generated images and loops of Super Typhoon Haiyan appeared in the media, including in this article by the Capital Weather Gang from the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/08/super-typhoon-haiyan-one-of-worlds-most-powerful-storms-in-history-from-space/ . A second Washington Post article on Super Typhoon Haiyan was published, based on VIIRS Day-Night “band before and after” images, which showed the extensive areas of power outages along the track of the storm in the Philippines (see  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/11/12/lights-out-in-tacloban-satellite-image-before-and-after-typhoon-haiyan/ ) One post on CIRA’s facebook page received over 19,000 views after being re-shared many times. (D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

• Ongoing participation in bi-weekly SPoRT AWIPS II EPDT telecons
• Ongoing participation in bi-weekly Raytheon AWIPS II Developers telecons
• Ongoing participation in NESDIS NDE telecons
• Ongoing participation in CIRA JPSS monthly meetings
• Ongoing participation in monthly AWIPS II Virtual Lab telecons
• Ongoing participation in monthly STAR ITAC telecons
• Led bi-weekly CIRA IT staff meetings
• Submitted quarterly NESDIS ITAR documents and certifications
• Completed NOAA 2014 wall to wall equipment inventory.  Entered all updated info in NOAA Sunflower database and submitted signed forms to Mike Goldberg. (D. Molenar)

• Provided basic McIDAS training on ADDE server access to NHC & CIRA staff
• Continuing efforts to complete latest CLC AWIPS II training updates. (D. Molenar)