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NDE NPP Tropical Cyclone Algorithm v1.5.x Delivered: S. Longmore delivered the latest version (v1.5.1) of the NPP TC DAP on 2014/12/10 and 1.5.0 on 2014/11/09. These versions include updates to the QC, ATMS time window adjustments and fixes for southern hemisphere storms, invest storm missing positions and netCDF global attributes product files. These versions have passed development testing and will be migrated to the official testing servers. (S. Longmore, A. Schumacher, J. Dostalek, J. Knaff)
NSOF AMSU Tropical Cyclone Algorithm v1.2.0 Delivered: S. Longmore delivered the latest version (v1.2.0) on 2014/10/15. This version includes use of liquid water path instead of cloud liquid water to incorporate precipitating (eyewall/rainband) retrievals, updates to QC, AMSU time window adjustments and fixes for southern hemisphere storms, invest storm missing positions and netCDF global attributes product files. (S. Longmore, J. Dostalek, J. Knaff)
Development of real-time guidance on intensity guidance (Joint Hurricane Testbed): A prototype real-time algorithm for predicting mean absolute errors and bias of intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center’s primary intensity models (SHIPS, LGEM, HWRF, GFDL) has been developed and tested. This algorithm, developed in partnerships with scientists at the U. of Miami, will be run in real time during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. (A. Schumacher)
Tropical cyclone genesis index (TCGI) accepted for operational implementation: The TCGI, developed as collaboration between CIRA, U. of Miami, AOML/HRD, and Florida State University scientists, is a statistical algorithm for estimating the probability that a tropical disturbance will form into in tropical cyclone in the next 48 and 120 hours that was developed under the Joint Hurricane Testbed. The TCGI has run in quasi-real-time at CIRA for the last 2 Atlantic hurricane seasons and has produced skillful TC genesis forecasts during that time. In December 2014, official notice was received that the TCGI was accepted for operational implementation at the National Hurricane Center. (A. Schumacher)
HWRF Synthetic Imagery Verifications on Storm Scales: Synthetic IR imagery was collected for recent HWRF forecasts and work has begun to evaluate storm-scale features found in the observed and forecast IR imagery. Using Hurricane Gonzalo (2014) forecasts storm-relative azimuthally-averaged IR brightness temperatures (Tbs) were calculated and also used to estimate principle components based on observed variance patterns. The PCs can be further used to compare TC sizes of the observed and forecasts IR. Collectively the Tb profiles, their PCs and TC size metrics are being used to diagnose the behavior of simulated/forecast storms. Preliminary findings indicate that the forecasts sizes of storms are too large, eye features are too large, eyes are too warm, the cold ring of convection surrounding the eye is too warm, and that spin-up of convection is rather disruptive and last approximately 24-48 hours. The Figure 1 shows radial profiles of Tbs from the 48h forecasts during Hurricane Gonzalo compared with observe Tb profiles during the same period. (J. Knaff)
Figure 1: Six-hourly azimuthally-averaged Tb radial profiles of 48h forecast (left) and observed (right) valid
14 October 18 UTC -19 October 18 UTC for Hurricane Gonzalo.
Verification of NHC’s operational 34-kt wind radii forecasts: An examination of a decade of 34-kt wind radii forecasts reveal that in the last 3 years forecasts have become skillful through 72-hours. This has many implications for products that rely upon that information including wave forecast and 34-kt wind speed probabilities. It also begs the question if such forecasts should be extended beyond 72 hours. Figure 2 shows the improvement in multi-year skill (based on DRCL, the wind radii CLIPER model). A manuscript discussing this finding is in peer review. (J. Knaff)
Figure 2: Percent improvement of MAEs with respect to DRCL forecasts for the period 2004-2006 (blue), 2007-2009 (red), and 2010-2013 (green).
Statistical significance, accounting for 30-h serial correlation, is indicated by the larger line markers.
Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Dropsonde Collocation product has been added to the RAMMB-CIRA TC Real Time Page, http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/, as part of JPSS-PGRR and CIRA Cal/Val projects. This product displays the vertical temperature and moisture profiles of collocated dropsondes and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) retrievals. ATMS is an instrument onboard the JPSS S-NPP operational polar-orbiting satellite, launched in October, 2011 (http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/jpss/instruments.php). ATMS operates in conjunction with CrIS to profile atmospheric temperature and moisture, providing higher spatial resolution compared to its predecessor, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). ATMS data are processed using the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) algorithm. The red and blue lines are T and Td profiles from ATMS, respectively, and the purple and teal lines are T and Td from the dropsondes. Printed at the bottom of the plot are the ATCF storm ID, the ATMS carrying satellite id, the distance from the TC center to the dropsonde, the heading angle, and the horizontal distance between the dropsonde release location and ATMS sounding. For the collocation the ATMS sounding closest to the dropsonde was selected within one hour and 100 km from the dropsonde release time and location. A separate plot is created for each TC within 2000 km of a dropsonde, thus it is possible that the same dropsonde could be used in more than one plot if multiple systems are present. Figure 1 shows the snapshot from the TC Real-Time page, showing the dropsondes and ATMS sounding collocation next to the ATMS MPI product. The comparison will be monitored in realtime to assess the quality of soundings used as input into the MPI algorithm. (G. Chirokova, J. Dostalek)
Figure 1. The snapshot from RAMMB-CIRA TC Real-Time page, showing the dropsonde and ATMS sounding collocation plot next to the MPI sounding product for Hurricane Edouard, AL062014. The red and blue lines are T and Td profiles from ATMS, respectively, and the purple and teal lines are T and Td from the dropsondes. The description for both products is available online, at
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/about.asp#SNPPASNDhttp://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/about.asp#DSATSNSD
Development of automated eye-detection algorithm: As a part of the JPSS-PGRR project, a Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) implementation has been trained to perform automated eye detection. To evaluate the quality of the eye detection, the data from the previously created dataset of 2677 IR images were randomly shuffled and partitioned so 70% of the data would be used for training and 30% would be used for testing. By projecting the training and testing data onto 11 eigenvectors identified by the PCA, the dimension of the data were reduced. This allows for the separability of the two classes to be inspected. Additionally, this allowed the QDA implementation to more easily distinguish which class an image should belong to. The training set with reduced dimension was used to train the QDA implementation. Estimated classifications were then generated for each of the images in the testing set. These estimated classifications were then compared to the subjective classifications to measure the error. To avoid calculating error statistics that only illustrated how well the algorithm performed for a particular shuffling of training/testing data, the data was shuffled 1200 times and error statistics were calculated for each shuffling. The average of these error statistics can be seen in Figure 1. Figure 1 (left panel) shows that, on average, roughly 75% of the images were correctly classified. Images with eyes in them were correctly classified roughly 78% of the time and images without eyes were correctly classified about 72% of the time. Figure 1 (right panel) illustrates that on average, 28% of the images without eyes were incorrectly classified. Additionally, roughly 22% of the images with eyes were incorrectly classified. Future work on the algorithm will involve examining cases that the algorithm performed poorly on and adding additional data sources to the input. (R. DeMaria)
Figure 1: Average eye-detection error statistics where data was shuffled 1200 times.
Left Panel: Average fraction of correct classifications. Right Panel: Average fraction of incorrect classifications.
VIIRS DNB Low-Latency Imagery:This new product has been added to the RAMMB-CIRA TC Real Time page. In October-November, 2014, CIRA was getting VIIRS DNB images with relatively low-latency, usually within 2 hours, thanks to NASA IDPS making it available via GRAVITE. The low-latency DNB images have been added to the RAMMB-CIRA TC Real Time page as an experimental product. The product was running in a testing mode while the low-latency imagery was available. NHC indicated that they will be interested in the continuation of this product. The image below shows a screenshot for TC ANA, 2014CP02, on 21Oct, showing the Visible Image, DNB Image, and IR Image. The DNB image was just a couple hours old, and was displayed significantly earlier than the Visible and IR SDR images, which were not provided with low latency. (G. Chirokova, K. Micke, R. DeMaria, S. Finley)
Figure 1. The screenshot from RAMMB-CIRA TC Real-Time page, showing Visible (left), DNB (middle), and IR (right) VIIRS images for TC ANA, CP022014. The DNB image is low-latency, and is displayed several hours ahead of the previously-available Visible and IR SDR images, which are not currently provided with low latency.
PSDI and Cal/Val Replacements: Work continued on the PSDI and Cal/Val projects to replace the old, statistical retrieval algorithm used to create operational tropical cyclone products with the new MIRS retrievals from both the AMSU instrument and the ATMS instrument. (J. Dostalek)
WMO Reports: Two reports “2.7: Advances in intensity guidance” by C. Sampson (NRLMRY) and J. Knaff (Co-Rapporteurs) and “ SF1: Objective Structure Analysis” by J. Knaff (Rapporteur) were finalized and submitted to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as part of the proceedings for the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC8). Presentations were presented at IWTC8, which was held 2-8 December 2014 on Jeju Island, South Korea. (J. Knaff)
Lecture on Annular Hurricanes: J. Knaff gave a lecture in W. Schubert’s (CSU) AT710 – Atmospheric Vorticies class. The 1:15 lecture covered Annular Hurricanes (see Knaff et al. 2003). (J. Knaff)
Epidemiology Seminar: J. Knaff attended an Epidemiology Seminar entitled “Human mortality during extreme environmental events: Studies of heat waves and of the 2003 blackout” by Prof. B. Anderson (CSU). Prof. Anderson is beginning work on a project to study mortality and hurricanes. (J. Knaff)
Invited talk: J. Knaff gave an invited talk entitled “ATCF: Lessons learned on TC consensus forecasting” at the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) validation workshop held at NCAR. ICAP is an ad hoc aerosol numerical modeling working group founded by aerosol modeling developers from the operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers around the world. The primary goal of the 2014 ICAP meeting is development of an agreement on the complex topic of data verification protocols (see http://icap.atmos.und.edu/ for more information). (J. Knaff)
VISIT Satellite Chat: The monthly VISIT satellite chat was held the week of 17 October. John Knaff led the morning discussion which focused on interpretation of the VIIRS imagery for Supertyphoon Vongwong. The discussion was well received and will be highlighted in future training on VIIRS imagery applications. The afternoon discussion focused on moisture plumes advected by tropical cyclones across the Pacific that influence extra-tropical cyclones over the CONUS. The Medford, OR WFO participated in the afternoon discussion and stated they find these satellite chat sessions very useful. Recordings of all VISIT satellite chat sessions can be found here at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/ (J. Knaff)
Lecture on Tropical Cyclone Structure: K. Musgrave gave a 75-minute lecture in Prof. W. Schubert’s (CSU) ATS710 – Geophysical Vortices class, focusing on the inner-core structure of tropical cyclones and its relationship with intensity change. (K. Musgrave)
HFIP Annual Meeting: K. Musgrave traveled to Miami, FL for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) Annual Meeting 18-20 November 2014. The meeting focused on the 2014 hurricane season, the work performed over the past year and potential areas of focus over the next year to improve hurricane track and intensity forecasts. Several collaborations were initiated over the three day meeting with scientists from HRD, GFDL, and CIMSS. Also participating remotely were J. Dostalek, A. Schumacher, C. Slocum, and J. Knaff. (K. Musgrave, J. Dostalek, A. Schumacher, J. Knaff)
VISIT Blog Entry on Super Typhoon Hagupit: K. Musgrave wrote a blog entry showcasing VIIRS imagery for Super Typhoon Hagupit. The imagery was taken approximately during peak intensity of the typhoon as it was east of the Philippines. D. Lindsey provided the VIIRS imagery for this blog entry. The blog entry can be viewed at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/
(K. Musgrave, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey)
ORI Product:
Orographic Rain Index (ORI): S. Longmore ported the ORI software developed by S. Kidder to Cent OS 5 linux from Windows, developed software to run in real-time. It is currently running in test status. (S. Longmore, D. Bikos, E. Szoke)
New NAWIPS GeoColor Products for National Centers: Two new real-time NAWIPS (96 color) GeoColor products covering the Atlantic and Pacific basins are now being distributed to the NOAA Weather Prediction and Ocean Prediction National Centers. The products were requested by the Centers’ GOES-R Satellite Focal Points. (S. Miller, R. DeMaria, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar)
Figure. CIRA/RAMMB NAWIPS (96 color) GeoColor products for Atlantic and Pacific basins.
NUCAPS Teleconference: CIRA members J. Dostalek, R. Brummer, and S. Miller took part in several teleconferences and contributed ideas as part of NESDIS’ effort to put NUCAPS retrievals to use by the NWS and other forecast agencies. CIRA’s participation has been in the “Cold Air Aloft” subgroup along with employees of NESDIS, NWS, CIMSS, SPoRT, and GINA (Geographic Information Network of Alaska). At high latitudes in the winter, air along commercial jet air routes can get so cold (-65°C) that there is a risk of the freezing of the jet fuel. Radiosonde data are sparse in the Arctic, so temperature retrievals from polar-orbiting satellites are being investigated to determine if they may be of assistance in locating the cold areas. As CIRA works on getting its NUCAPS feed running, MIRS retrievals from NOAA-18, NOAA-19, MetOp-A, MetOp-B, and DMSP-18 have been used. Through interaction with GINA and WFO Anchorage, a web page was developed that displays a product developed at CIRA from MIRS soundings which tracks regions of cold air, and in particular, cold air which exists at altitudes used by passenger and cargo jet aircraft, typically below 45,000 ft. Eventually this information will be available in AWIPS II, but the web page allows for a quick implementation of ideas, as well as serves those agencies which would be interested in the information but don’t have access to AWIPS II. The web address is http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/cold_air_aloft.asp. It was well received and is being consulted by forecasters in Alaska. A snapshot of the web page is given in Figure 1. Colored on a map of the North Pole is the coldest temperature from the surface to 100 mb as measured by the MIRS retrieval. Where the coldest air is less than -65°C and exists below 45,000 ft, the satellite footprint is marked by a ‘+’. Regional displays with additional information are also available at the web page. (J. Dostalek)
Figure 1. Example from CIRA’s web page, which depicts air cold enough to freeze jet fuel in passenger and cargo jets.
VIIRS Captures Eruption of Mount Ontake: On the morning of 27 September 2014, the Japanese volcano Mount Ontake erupted with little warning, catching hundreds of hikers off-guard. Mountain lodges near the summit of the volcano were buried under 20 cm of ash and volcanic rock. As of 1 October 2014, 48 people were confirmed dead, either from falling volcanic debris or suffocation. VIIRS True Color imagery, shown in the figure below, captured the ash plume on the day of the eruption. (C. Seaman)
Figure 1. VIIRS True Color RGB composite image of Japan following the eruption of Mt. Ontake, taken 04:22 UTC 27 September 2014.
Inset: zoomed in on Mt. Ontake, with the ash plume identified by the yellow arrow.
New VIIRS Imagery Blog Post: The JPSS Imagery and Visualization Team Blog has been updated with a new post titled, “When China Looks Like Canada.” This post discusses recent VIIRS images that highlight a broad area of northeast China where a high concentration of small (or low-temperature) fires exists. These fires are likely due to agricultural burning in preparation for winter. While not nearly as large or destructive as the many fires that occurred over Canada’s Northwest Territories, VIIRS was still able to detect a very high concentration of hot spots. Of particular value is the CIRA Fire Temperature RGB (shown in the figure below), which provides improved visual fire detection over using M-13 (4.0 mm) alone. More images (including China’s poor air quality as seen from space) and additional details may be found at the JPSS Imagery and Visualization Team Blog at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/when-china-looks-like-canada/ (C. Seaman)
Figure: VIIRS Fire Temperature RGB composite showing numerous small and/or low temperature fires (red-orange pixels) in the vicinity of Harbin, China (04:48 UTC 18 November 2014)
New VIIRS Imagery Team Blog Post: The VIIRS Imagery and Visualization Team Blog has been updated with a new post titled: Bárðarbunga, the Toxic Tourist Trap. This post discusses the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Bárðarbunga. The eruption began on 28 August 2014 and has been continuous up to the present day – over 100 days and counting. Many photographers and videographers have travelled to the volcano to capture dramatic images of the flowing lava. The multi-spectral capabilities of VIIRS are useful for investigating the volcano from a variety of perspectives. The True Color RGB composite shows the ash plume. The EUMETSAT Dust RGB composite highlights the plume of sulfur dioxide. The Fire Temperature RGB composite shows the hotspot from the volcano, as well as the subsequent river of lava. The hottest pixel in M-13 – the midwave-IR channel that was designed to have a high saturation temperature – reached at 632 K on 31 August, shortly after the eruption began. In the figure below, a new RGB composite of M-4, M-7 and M-11 (similar to the EUMETSAT Natural Color RGB), shows the volcano (red) in sharp contrast to the background of snow and ice (cyan) and vegetation (green). More images – including animations from the first 45 days post-eruption – and discussion may be found on the VIIRS Imagery Team Blog at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/bardarbunga-the-toxic-tourist-trap/ (C. Seaman)
Figure: VIIRS RGB composite of channels M-4, M-7 and M-11, showing the eruption of Bárðarbunga in Iceland,
as it appeared at 13:42 UTC 17 November 2014.
GOES-R Synthetic Imagery over Alaska: For the first time, GOES-R synthetic imagery is available over Alaska in real time. Five ABI bands are being simulated currently – see this page for the real-time loops: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#Synthetic_Imagery_from_the_NAM_Alaska_Nest The imagery is based on output from the 5-km NAM Alaska Nest operational model. Next, additional bands and band differences will be added to the processing, and the data will be provided to Alaska Region NWS offices for use in operations. The data will be used both to assist forecasters and to develop GOES-R algorithms over Alaska. An example 7.34 μm image is below. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)
Figure. Synthetic GOES-R ABI 7.34 μm image over Alaska valid at 16 UTC on 21 November 2014, based on a 16-hour forecast from the NAM Alaska Nest model.
New Synthetic ABI Band: Chad Gravelle, the GOES-R liaison to the Operations Proving Ground, has requested that the GOES-R ABI 6.185 µm band 8 be added to our daily processing from the NSSL WRF. He is interested in leading an experiment with WFOs to learn what unique information GOES-R water vapor bands (6.185, 6.95, and 7.34 µm) provide. Hence, all three water vapor bands are now available and are being sent via the LDM to the NWS. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)
Figure. Example synthetic 6.185 μm image from 2 Oct. 2014.
Upgrades to Alaska-centric VIIRS Imagery Products on RAMSDIS Online: Due to the very high latency (7-8 hours) of VIIRS data provided through IDPS, VIIRS imagery produced from sources such as GRAVITE and PEATE for afternoon overpasses in the Western Hemisphere are often not available until late at night or in the early morning hours. As a result, Alaska-centric VIIRS imagery products were initially produced at CIRA on the following day. This fall, GRAVITE experimented with offering lower latency (1.5 – 2 hours) VIIRS data. This prompted an upgrade to the Alaska-centric VIIRS imagery products, which began producing the imagery in near-real time with 2 hour latency. After 30 November 2014, GRAVITE reverted back to high latency but, imagery is still produced at CIRA every two hours when available, instead of once per day. CIRA is currently working with the University of Alaska-GINA to acquire Direct Broadcast VIIRS data collected over the Alaska Region in order to once again offer low latency imagery products on RAMSDIS Online. Imagery products for the Alaska region are available for viewing at the RAMSDIS Online VIIRS page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp (C. Seaman)
JPSS-2 and Beyond presentation: On 23 October 2014, D. Hillger gave a presentation to the JPSS-2 and Beyond: Instrument Improvements for Science Benefits Workshop. Hillger’s presentation was in support of VIIRS sending down all pixels that are now aggregated on board the satellite, in order to generate enhanced L1.5 SDRs that do not have either bowtie deletions or overlapping pixels. Other JPSS Teams also supported this change, in particular the SST Team, whose presentation was given by I. Gladkova of CREST. Many other suggested changes to VIIRS (and other JPSS instruments) were also presented, all of which were discussed to some level at the workshop, realizing that budget constraints will probably allow only those things with higher benefit-to-cost considerations. (D. Hillger)
JPSS Long Term Monitoring Workshop Presentation: On 28 October 2014, D. Hillger, as STAR EDR Imagery Product Lead, gave a presentation to the StAR JPSS EDR Long Term Monitoring (LTM) Workshop. Hillger’s presentation outlined the path to Validation Stage 3, obtained in early 2014, to current efforts towards long term monitoring of VIIRS Imagery. Imagery is automatically downloaded and displayed online in several forms, both to check Imagery quality, and to provide users with examples of VIIRS Imagery and Image products. Emphasis on high-resolution and low-latency VIIRS, as well as DNB and NCC Imagery, is user driven. Specific suggestions from the workshop include automatic checking for Imagery problems and the need for software to deal with the bowtie deletions and overlapping pixels in SDR Imagery. (D. Hillger)
Support for Low-latency VIIRS on GRAVITE: User feedback on low-latency VIIRS Imagery (EDRs, DNB, and NCC) has been compiled and sent to T. Kasheta and V. Grano. The user feedback was gathered from users of NRL and CIRA online VIIRS imagery. Although the feedback was not extensive, a number of examples showed where VIIRS Imagery provided useful data, with particular emphasis on the DNB and NCC. It is hoped that the low-latency VIIRS will continue past the potential 30 November 2014 deadline. (D. Hillger)
Feedback on new DNB Issue for JPSS-1: The Imagery Team participated in a presentation on an edge-of-scan non-linearity issue for the Day-Night-Band (DNB) of VIIRS discovered in thermal testing! The problem was posed along with some proposed solutions, more than one of which involved some degradation of the DNB at both ends of the granule swath, approximately the last 3 degrees. B. Gunther therefore asked certain individuals for feedback on whether VIIRS could be operated without the faulty ends of the swath, without creating gaps between orbital swaths near the equator. A relatively quick answer from CIRA concluded that a loss of 1 degree or less of the edge of the scan would not cause gaps, but that a 3 degree loss would cause gaps between swaths as far north and south as 23 degrees latitude. (D. Hillger, C. Seaman, S. Kidder)
Use of Pixel Overlap to Eliminate Bowtie Deletions in VIIRS SDR Imagery: A new re-ordering and interpolation scheme has been developed in an effort to fill in the bowtie deletions in the off-nadir parts of VIIRS images. The bowtie deleted pixels are not necessary, in that no geo-locations are missed that are not covered by other pixels; but there is an alternative way to present SDR Imagery by re-ordering the pixels so that the bowtie deletions and pixel overlap do not cause annoying gaps, and imagery features no longer appear to be duplicated at edge-of-swath. This processing is in lieu of Ground Track Mercator (GTM) remapping, which is only available with EDR Imagery for 6 of the 16 M bands (as well as the VIIRS I bands). This new technique is being tested on VIIRS granule imagery captured and displayed online at CIRA. (D. Hillger)
Figure 1a: Left half of a VIIRS SDR granule with bowtie deletions (gaps of 2 lines starting at edge of scan,
changing to a 1 line gap, then no gaps to nadir)
Figure 1b: Left half of the same VIIRS granule as in 1a but with bowtie deletions re-ordered so that
the pixels are arranged by latitude (as a function of element number or scan angle.)
Figure 1c: Left half of the same VIIRS granule as in 1b but with the bowtie deletions filled in by interpolation between adjacent re-ordered values.
Note that the much better presentation of cloud features on the left (scan-edge) side in particular, but with slight re-ordering of pixels even in areas with no bowtie deletions.
AWG FIRE DETECTION: Collaboration began with Brad Pierce to add fire hotspots to synthetic imagery. Brad has provided synthetic imagery from real-time wrf-chem runs. In addition, he has also provided wf-abba observed GOES-13 retrieved fires. Our goal is to add the wf-abba hotspots into the real-time synthetic imagery. Code development occurred during this quarter to match the wf-abba times with the corresponding times of the synthetic imagery. (L. Grasso)
ALASKA NAM NEST IMAGERY: Collaboration began with Brad Ferrier to obtain data for the real-time ALASKA NAM NEST. Our goal is to make synthetic GOES-R imagery from these runs. Many scripts and f90 routines have been developed for this purpose. Manual testing of the scripts and code has occurred before such routines will be activated by a “cron” entry. (L. Grasso)
Photo Report Concept AGU presentation: S. Longmore presented “An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring” at the AGU Fall 2014 Meeting, Earth Science Informatics session: “Near Real Time Data for Earth Science and Space Weather” on 17 Dec 2014. (S. Longmore, S. Miller, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D. Molenar, D. Hillger, R. Brummer, J. Knaff)
Training metrics for the quarter:
Teletraining:
9 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 10 teletraining signups, 13 students participated.
Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:
Registrations: 108
Completions: 68
LMS totals from January 2005 through 12 December 2014:
Registrations: 7598
Completions: 4860
Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations: The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz. A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions: The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course. A student may have completed multiple courses this way.
VISIT Satellite Chats:
Figure 1. Water Vapor imagery highlighting tropical cylone that was shown during the VISIT satellite chat on 16 September 2014. Chat sessions during this quarter included a presentation by Dr. Mark De Maria (NHC) chat session in September on ‘Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification.’
Figure 2. Infrared VIIRS imagery for Super Typhoon Vongfong at the VISIT satellite chat on 15 October 2014.
In October, Dr. John Knaff (NESDIS/STAR/RAMMB) led a discussion on VIIRS applications from Super Typhoon Vongfong. The discussion was so popular that this was also made into a VISIT training session. The November satellite chat focused on the significant lake-effect snow event at Buffalo, NY. The September and October sessions focused on Tropical related training and were conducted in cooperation with activities funded by the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental project as well as the JPSS project.
As of 12 December 2014, there have been 65 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 87 NWS forecast office signups.
Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/
New training sessions that debuted this quarter:
Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:
VISIT web-page traffic:
VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) The blog averages about 400 pageviews per month.
A blog entry made this quarter to the VISIT blog related to VIIRS imagery applications to Super Typhoon Hagupit during peak intensity as it was east of the Philippines. This entry was coordinated with activities funded by the Hurricane Sandy Supplemental project as well as the JPSS project.
Meetings and Calls
VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on 10 October, 21 November, and 18 December 2014.
9 October 2014: Boulder WFO Winter Weather Workshop – E. Szoke attended and gave overview talk on GOES-R Proving Ground activities (also on 25 Sep).
20-23 October 2014: E. Szoke attended NWA Annual Meeting in Salt Lake City and presented two posters, one on CIRA’s GOES-R Proving Ground products and interactions (the other on the HRRR, which had just gone operational at NCEP).
3-7 November 2014: E. Szoke attended AMS 26th Severe Local Storms Conference in Madison, Wisconsin. He presented a poster on the HRRR and its performance for the September 2013 Colorado floods. He also gave a talk on relating total lightning behavior to the evolution of the non-supercell tornado that hit DIA on 18 June 2013. We hypothesize that an upward trend of in-cloud lightning (as revealed through the ground-based Colorado Lightning Mapping Array, which can be used to mimic total lightning that will be available from GOES-R), which corresponds to an increasing storm updraft, should be more closely correlated with non-supercell tornadogenesis then with the more complex tornado formation mechanisms in a supercell storm. Our results for this case show some promise in this regard, though not all the signals were straightforward.
1. Preparations for proposed SHyMet course: GOES-R Instruments and Products
Figure 3. Brightness temperature data for 2 points from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) with channel spectral range from GOES, VIIRS I and M bands, GOES-R, and Himiwari represented as the simple full width at half maximum. See the link below for the full loop.
2. Metrics for the 4 existing SHyMet courses:
Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:
| SHyMet Course | Total since debut | September – November 2014 | Course Debut | ||
| Registrations | Completions | Registrations | Completions | ||
| Intern | 462 | 348 | 8 | 11 | April 2006 |
| Forecaster | 67 | 45 | 0 | 0 | January 2010 |
| Tropical | 42 | 22 | 0 | 0 | August 2010 |
| Severe | 60 | 38 | 1 | 1 | March 2011 |
Non-NOAA:
Intern: 44 Registrations; 14 known completions
Over the past couple of years, the NWS experienced budget cuts that resulted in a hiring freeze and much reduced training. It is good to see that the course completions are starting to pick up again. We continue to find bugs in the CLC LMS, so we are hopeful that the new Learning Management System will allow for easier tracking of individual modules and overall course completions. It is interesting to note that 2/3 of the Interns that took this course during this quarter completed it in less than a month.
3. International training that builds on efforts of the VISIT and SHyMet Programs, and enhances communication and exchange of information with international training partners:
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly bilingual (English/Spanish) weather briefings (16 October, 13 November, and 11 December 2014). The briefings made use of VISITview software to present GOES and POES satellite imagery.
WMO VLab Management Group virtual meeting: B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group on 25 November 2014. Topics at this meeting that are of particular interest to VISIT and SHyMet include issuing certificates for online participation and the NOAA Satellite conference and coordinated Train the Trainer Event during the last week of April 2015.
To learn more about the briefings, VLab training, and CALMet Online 2014, please look at the International section of this quarterly report.
4. Community Outreach:
After school weather club: Scientists at CIRA and CSU students – all members of the local AMS chapter of Northern Colorado – FORTCAST (Fort Collins Atmospheric Scientists) volunteered for the weekly after-school weather club on Tuesdays for Putnam Elementary (K-5). This fall session ran for 8 weeks during October through early December 2014. There was a 90 minute session each week. Sessions included helping with homework and leading a weather related activity. The topics covered included lightning, wind speed and direction, clouds, temperature, rainbows, frost (and ice cream!), and things that spin as well as measurements that are associated with these weather occurrences. Volunteers included Bernie Connell, Matt Rogers, Erin Dagg, Doug Stolz, Marie McGraw, and Melissa Burt. Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great!
B. Connell gave a presentation on GOES and GOES-R and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing/ Geographic Information Systems class at the Metropolitan State University of Denver on 30 November 2014. Since their Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery. (B. Connell)
NWS Satellite Liaison AWIPS II Training at CIRA: On 3-4 December 2014, D. Molenar and S. Longmore held a 2-day AWIPS II training session for NWS Satellite Liaisons Michael Folmer, Weather Prediction Center/Ocean Prediction Center/Satellite Analysis Branch (WPC/OPC/SAB), Amanda Terbourg, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), and Bill Line, Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The training provided an overview of AWIPS II and focused on adding products to the National Centers display perspective (NCP). CIRA experimental satellite products, such as GeoColor and GOES Sounder RGB Airmass, currently used by the National Centers in NAWIPS, were added to the AWIPS II NCP. The training also covered adding HRRR gridded data ingest and display to the NCP. Materials from the training course were also sent to National Hurricane Center and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites staff. (D. Molenar, S. Longmore)
Figure. NWS Satellite Liaisons (left to right) Michael Folmer, Amanda Terbourg and Bill Line implementing the CIRA GeoColor product and HRRR model data in AWIPS II.
AWIPS II training: D. Molenar, K. Musgrave, and S. Longmore attended the Unidata sponsored training session GEMPAK with an Introduction to AWIPS-II. The session was held in Boulder, CO on 27-29 October 2014. The training provided information on utilization of most aspects of the AWIPS II National Centers Perspective (NCP), which is designed to have the same look and feel as GEMPAK. The NCP will be used when AWIPS II is deployed at the NOAA National Centers, and a variation is available to universities from Unidata. (D. Molenar, K. Musgrave, S. Longmore)
Presentation to Elementary School Students: D. Lindsey spoke to three second grade classes (~60 students) at Dunn Elementary School about weather. The kids had some excellent questions! (D. Lindsey)
Figure. D. Lindsey speaking to 60 second graders at Dunn Elementary School in Ft. Collins about weather.
Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly bilingual (English/Spanish) weather briefings (16 October, 13 November, and 11 December 2014). The briefings made use of VISITview software to present GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA and GoToWebinar for image and voice communication over the Internet. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the NWS International Desk at WPC/NCEP, UCAR/JOSS-NOAA/NWS International Activities Office, and UCAR/COMET as well as outside the U.S.: Bahamas, Barbados, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay. The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters and other trainers. The 3 sessions were well attended as represented by 7, 9, and 7 countries reaching 13, 12, and 8 participants respectively for October, November, and December 2014. Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussions. Typically, the sessions include a look at Water Vapor imagery for a synoptic overview of Central America and the Caribbean as well as for South America. The IR 10.7 µm imagery and Visible imagery are used to look more closely at weather features. We look at MJO patterns and the outlook, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) patterns, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and anomalies. Imagery from a recent weather feature is often highlighted. Of particular interest over the past three months are the anomalously warm SSTs in the eastern Pacific, a discussion of mountain wave turbulence in October, a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) exhibiting gravity waves and affecting Peru and Bolivia in November, and a strong subequatorial ridge in the Caribbean with windy and cool conditions in Central America in December. Recordings of the three sessions as well as previous sessions can be found online: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/fg_recording.asp (B. Connell)
Figure 1. Screen capture during the December Regional Focus Group Session. VISITview browser software allows Mike to draw upper level patterns on the water vapor imagery with ease. Some prominent features depicted include deep polar troughs over the eastern US and eastern Atlantic and a strong subequatorial ridge over the Caribbean.
Sharing of Imagery and Products: Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 4-week archive feature: (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).
Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell)
GEONETCast Americas VLab Training Channel: B. Connell participated in a GEONETCast Americas (GNC-A) Coordination Group telecon on 9 December 2014. The call was led by Eric Madsen of the NOAA Satellite and Information Service, International and Interagency Affairs Division. Users from Argentina, Brazil, Barbados, Colombia, El Salvador, and Trinidad gave updates on current stations and new ones to be installed over the next year. Sample files were shown of the GOES East imagery in GeoTiff format that NOAA will be sending over GNC-A. Many were excited about the coverage and resolution. Committee Chairs were selected for the 4 sub-committees: Broadcast Operations, Ground Receive Stations, Content, and Users. B. Connell will be on the Users sub-committee and is particularly interested in the aspect to “Develop trainings and tutorials on how to use the data and products on the system and on what software packages work with the data and products.” The group was informed of the WMO/NOAA Train the Trainer Event that will take place the weekend before the NOAA Satellite Conference in April 2015. This event will focus on the many aspects of GNC-A. (B. Connell)
CALMet Conference: CIRA was represented virtually at Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet ) Online 2014, which washeld asynchronously over 8 weeks from 6 October to 30 November 2014. The goal of CALMet Online 2014 was “to demonstrate a variety of learning approaches, suitable for application and adaptation across various institutions and practices.” B. Connell led a session on “Preparing for a New Satellite: New and Old Challenges Mixed with Opportunities.”
Figure 3. Brightness temperature data for 2 points from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) with channel spectral range from GOES, VIIRS I and M bands, GOES-R, and Himiwari represented as the simple full width at half maximum. See the link below for the full loop.
The online conference provided a formal yet relaxed way to interact with international training partners. The conference is officially closed, but the website remains open for enrollment and browsing the content: http://training.eumetsat.int/course/view.php?id=226 (B. Connell)
WMO VLab Management Group: B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group (VLMG) on 25 November 2014. Topics at this meeting that are of particular interest include issuing certificates for online participation and the NOAA Satellite Conference and coordinated Train the Trainer Event during the last week of April 2015. B. Connell also participated in an online meeting for VLMG members to discuss the topic of certificates on 16 December 2014. The VLab recognizes that its membership is diverse and that it has neither the authority nor intention to specify what information goes on a certificate related to formal and informal training. Since many interesting points were brought up at the discussion, the VLab will draft guidance on issuing certificates. CIRA was particularly interested in approaches to issuing certificates both nationally and internationally for online focus group sessions. (B. Connell)
SPoRT AWIPS II EPDT Fall 2014 Code Sprint: Debra Molenar (RAMMB) participated in the SPoRT AWIPS II code sprint held in Huntsville, AL from 23 – 25 September 2014. Debra worked with the GOES-R AWIPS II working group. The group successfully installed a beta AWIPS II GOES-R plugin and was able to display simulated imagery currently being used for GOES-R testing. The exercise was a good tool to help visualize the different ABI scan modes and the AWIPS II data sectors. It was also very helpful to be able to review the beta GOES-R decoder software. Information obtained will be utilized on the CIRA GOES-R Groundsystem ingest and archive design. (D. Molenar)
Figure 1. AWIPS II display of simulated GOES-R CMI channel 14 (11.2 micron) imagery.
RAMMB web site Traffic: Traffic to the RAMMB web site continued to be heavy in 2014, with the majority of the traffic concentrated on several of our real-time data sites. All the following data are from 1 December 2013 to 30 November 2014, the “official” end of the Atlantic hurricane season. During that time, the site received over 4.2 million page views from over 337,000 unique visitors (see Figure 1). The significant spike around 28 October was during the time that Tropical Cyclone Nilofar (IO042014) was preparing to make landfall. (K. Micke)
Figure 1: Detailed statistics for the entire RAMMB site from 1 Dec 2013 – 30 Nov 2014.
The most popular section of the site, accounting for 58% of all traffic, continues to be RAMSDIS Online (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/). This site shows real-time satellite data products for various parts of the world. The most popular part of this site was the RMTC page that serves data for Central and South America (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).
The Tropical Cyclone Real-time site (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/) also continues to be extremely popular, accounting for over 33% of the server traffic throughout the year. During any tropical cyclone activity around the world the site often receives significant spikes in traffic.
The RAMMB web site continues to have a global reach, with 71% of traffic coming from outside the US. When viewed by sub-continental regions (see Figures 2 and 3), the majority of traffic comes from North America, but South and Central America, as well as Asia provide a very significant amount of the overall traffic. (K. Micke)
Figure 2: Map of sub-continental regions accessing the RAMMB site from 1 Dec 2013 – 30 Nov 2014.
Figure 3: Detailed statistics of sub-continental regions accessing the RAMMB site from
1 Dec 2013 – 30 Nov 2014.
Rammb-offsite: The copies of user requested data backup to the offsite data backup NAS device were finished. (H. Gosden)
MODIS Snow/Cloud Layer Color Table Modification: Installation instructions that will modify the color table of the MODIS Snow/Cloud layer product were completed. These instructions were sent out to the WFO sites that are already receiving the product. The sites will need to ftp a tar file from our ftp server in order to complete the color table modification installation. Also, for the future sites that will be installing this product, the tar file required to install the product has been updated with the latest color table. (H. Gosden, S. Miller)
NOAAPort Satellite Dish LBN Replacement: Due to various signal updates to the Planetary Data, Incorporated NOAAPort Receive System (pdinrs), the old LBN receiver on the NOAAPort dish proved problematic during the cold temperatures. The solution was to replace the LBN receiver with a newer model. The Norsat Model 3120 LBN was purchased and replaced the old model. The satellite signal is now strong even during the hours with freezing temperatures. (H. Gosden, M. Hiatt)
GOES Snow/Cloud Layer RAMSDIS Online (ROL): The transfer of GOES Snow/Cloud Layer ROL processing from Vesta2 to Ram-dev1 was completed. (H. Gosden, D. Hillger)
New Linux user Workstations: Two new mid-range Linux user workstations have been procured and configured. An additional system has been configured to handle the new higher capacity HWRF model ingest. (D. Molenar)
netApp Meeting: The CIRA GOES-R Data Management Working Group met with representative from netApp to review options for the CIRA GOES-R Groundsystem data ingest, service and archive. (D. Molenar)
Published:
Apodaca, K., M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, J.A Knaff, and L.D Grasso, 2014: Development of a hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation technique for observed lightning tested in a mesoscale model. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21:5, 1027-1041, doi:10.5194/npg-21-1027-2014. PDF
Balaguru K., S. Taraphdar, L.R. Leung, G.R. Foltz, and J.A. Knaff, 2014: Cyclone-cyclone interactions through the ocean pathway. Geophy. Res. Let., 41:19, 6855–6862. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061489 PDF
Manion, A., C. Evans, T.L. Olander, C.S. Velden, and L.D. Grasso; 2015: An evaluation of advanced Dvorak technique-derived tropical cyclone intensity estimates during extratropical transition using synthetic satellite imagery. Wea. Forecasting. 30:4, 984-1009.
Knaff, J.A., M. Bell, J.C.L. Chan, K.T.F. Chan, H-C Kuo, C-S. Lee, W-C Lee, C.M. Rozoff, K.Wood, and C. Sampson, 2014: Special Focus Session SF 4a Objective structure analysis, WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones – VIII, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea, 2-8 December, 23 pp. PDF
Longmore, S., D. Bikos, E. Szoke, S.D. Miller, R.L. Brummer, D.T. Lindsey, D.W. Hillger, 2014: A Photo Storm Report Mobile Application, Processing/Distribution System, and AWIPS-II Display Concept, AGU Fall 2014 Meeting, Earth Science Informatics session: Near Real Time Data for Earth Science and Space Weather. San Francisco, CA, 15-19 December.
Sampson, C.R., J.A. Knaff, J. Courtney, B. Strahl, F. Fujita, N. Koide, O. Bousquet, T. Dupont, M. Brennan, V. Tallapragada, T. Marchok, S.G. Gopalakrishnan, B. Chen, M. Mohapatra, S.D. Kotal, U.C. Mohanty, M. Fiorino, J. Doyle, and R. Elsberry, 2014: Topic 2.7 Advances in intensity guidance, WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones – VIII, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea, 2-8 December, 26 pp. PDF
Ali, M., N. Sharma, J.A. Knaff, 2015: A Soft-computing Cyclone Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric Science Letters.
Gochis, D., R. Schumacher, K. Friedrich, N. Doesken, M. Kelsch, J. 4 Sun, K. Ikeda, D.T. Lindsey, A. Wood, B. Dolan, S. Matrosov, A. Newman, K. Mahoney, S. Rutledge, R. Johnson, P. Kucera, P. Kennedy, D. Sempere-Torres, M. Steiner, R. Roberts, J. Wilson, W. Yu, V. Chandrasekar, R. Rasmussen, A. Anderson, B. Brown, 2015: The great Colorado flood of September 2013. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, K.-S. Lim, A. Clark, D. Bikos, 2015: Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery. Monthly Weather Review.
Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, C.J. Seaman, and B. Stocks, 2015: Satellite Observations of Plume-Like Streaks in a Cloud Field. J. Appl. Remote Sensing.
Knaff, J.A., S.P. Longmore, R.T. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, 2015: Improved tropical cyclone flight-level wind estimates using routine infrared satellite reconnaissance. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
Lang, T.J., S.A. Rutledge, B. Dolan, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, D.T. Lindsey, 2015: Lightning in Wildfire Smoke Plumes Observed in Colorado during Summer 2012. Mon.Wea.Rev.
Schmit, T., S. Goodman, M. Gunshor, J. Sieglaff, A. Heidinger, S. Bachmeier, A. Terborg, J. Feltz, K. Ba, S. Rudlosky, D.T. Lindsey, R. Rabin, and C. Schmidt, 2015: Rapid refresh imagery of significant events: preparing users for the next generation of geostationary operational satellites. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Seaman, C., D. Hillger, T. Kopp, R. Williams, S. Miller and D.T. Lindsey, 2015: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Imagery Environmental Data Record (EDR) User’s Guide. NOAA Technical Report, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.
Tourville, N., G. Stephens, M. DeMaria, 2015: Cloudsat and A-TRAIN Observations of Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2015: Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.
Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, 2015: After a Decade are Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Gail Force Wind Radii Forecasts now Skilfull? Weather and Forecasting.
Connell, B.H. participated in a GEONETCast Americas (GNC-A) Coordination Group telecon on 9 December 2014.
Knaff, J.A., 2014: Special Focus Session SF 4a Objective structure analysis, WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones – VIII, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea, 5 December. (see below)
Knaff, J.A., S. Longmore, A.B. Schumacher, J.F. Dostalek, R. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, M. Maria, D. Powell, A. Sigmund, W. Yu, 2014: Lessons Learned from the Deployment and Integration of a Microwave Sounder Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Surface Wind Estimation Algorithm into NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Product Operations, AGU Fall 2014 Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 15-19 December.
Longmore, S., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, J.A. Knaff, 2014: An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring, AGU Fall 2014 Meeting, Earth Science Informatics session: Near Real Time Data for Earth Science and Space Weather Applications I. San Francisco, CA, 15-19 December.
Miller, S.D., W.C. Straka, J. Yue, S. M. Smith, M. J. Alexander, L. Hoffmann, M. Setvak, and P. Partain, 2015: Making Waves — The VIIRS Day/Night Band Reveals Upper Atmospheric Gravity Wave via Sensitivity to Nightglow Emissions. 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. 14-18 December 2014, San Francisco, CA. Oral presentation
Musgrave, K.M., J.A. Knaff, C. Slocum, L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, 2014: Evaluation of HWRF Synthetic Satellite Brightness Temperatures, AGU Fall 2014 Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 15-19 December.
Noh, Y.-J., S.D. Miller, and A. Heidinger, 2015: Detection of supercooled liquid water-topped mixed-phase clouds from shortwave-infrared satellite observations. 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. 14-18 December 2014, San Francisco, CA. Poster Presentation
Sampson, C. R. and J.A. Knaff, 2014: Topic 2.7 Advances in intensity guidance, WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones – VIII, Jeju Island, Republic of Korea, 2 December. (see below)
Xu, J., Q. Li, J. Yue, L. Hoffman, W.C. Straka, S.D. Miller, W. Yuan, 2015: Concentric Gravity Waves over Northern China Observed by a No-Gap OH Airglow Imager Network and Satellites. 2015 AGU Fall Meeting. 14-18 December 2014, San Francisco, CA.
Presentation to Elementary School Students: D. Lindsey spoke to three second grade classes (~60 students) at Dunn Elementary School about weather the week of 11/26/14. The kids had some excellent questions! (D. Lindsey)
Figure. D. Lindsey speaking to 60 second graders at Dunn Elementary School in Ft. Collins about weather.
B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group (VLMG) on 25 November 2014.
Presentation to SPSRB: J. Knaff presented a project plan to upgrade the multi-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis to the NESDIS Satellite Products and Services Review Board (SPSRB) the week of 11/20/14. This plan would provide CIRA funding for FY16, FY17 and FY18. (J. Knaff)
JPSSDatato AWIPS 2 Workshop: D. Molenar gave a presentation on AWIPS II Development Activities Related to Ingest and Display of JPSS Data at RAMMB/CIRA at the workshop, held on 4 November 2014 in College Park, MD. The workshop highlighted projects by several groups, including the NESDIS Cooperative Institutes and SPoRT, to provide VIIRS data and products to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters. NWS and NESDIS network managers also provided information on current and future network capabilities to Forecast Offices and National Centers. Because the National Centers have more bandwidth available, they will provide the test bed for new product implementation for the near future. Several RAMMB/CIRA VIIRS products used for cloud/snow discrimination and dust detection will be distributed to the National Centers as part of this project. (D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, S. Miller, C. Seaman)
AMS 26th Severe Local Storms Conference: E. Szoke attended the AMS 26th Severe Local Storms Conference in Madison, Wisconsin, 3-7 November 2014. He presented a poster on the HRRR and its performance for the September 2013 Colorado floods. He also gave a talk on relating total lightning behavior to the evolution of the non-supercell tornado that hit DIA on 18 June 2013. We hypothesize that an upward trend of in-cloud lightning (as revealed through the ground-based Colorado Lightning Mapping Array, which can be used to mimic total lightning that will be available from GOES-R), which corresponds to an increasing storm updraft, should be more closely correlated with non-supercell tornadogenesis then with the more complex tornado formation mechanisms in a supercell storm. Our results for this case show some promise in this regard, though not all the signals were straightforward. (E. Szoke)
CloudSat Science Team Meeting: N. Tourville presented a poster at the CloudSat science team meeting on the Tropical Cyclone Dataset in November 2014. The poster generated lots of good feedback from the science team community and opened dialogue for a ROSES proposal (joint with JPL) on continuing this project and adding additional tropical cyclone components from other A-TRAIN and satellite sensors. (N. Tourville)
AGU Presentation: N. Tourville gave an oral presentation at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting entitled “CloudSat & A-Train Observations of Tropical Cyclones: Examining Effects of Wind Shear on Storm Structure” during the A11O: Tropical Cyclones: Observations, Modeling, and Predictability I session. This presentation highlighted the effects of different GFS atmospheric pressure levels to calculate vertical wind shear. The results showed that moderate wind has the largest impact on vertical cores and HTC strength storm are more susceptible to higher wind shear. A paper is in plans showing these results. (N. Tourville)
JPSS Long Term Monitoring Workshop Presentation: On 28 October 2014, D. Hillger, as STAR EDR Imagery Product Lead, gave a presentation to the StAR JPSS EDR Long Term Monitoring (LTM) Workshop. Hillger’s presentation outlined the path to Validation Stage 3, obtained in early 2014, to current efforts towards long term monitoring of VIIRS Imagery. Imagery is automatically downloaded and displayed online in several forms, both to check Imagery quality, and to provide users with examples of VIIRS Imagery and Image products. Emphasis on high-resolution and low-latency VIIRS, as well as DNB and NCC Imagery, is user driven. Specific suggestions from the workshop include automatic checking for Imagery problems and the need for software to deal with the bowtie deletions and overlapping pixels in SDR Imagery. (D. Hillger)
JPSS-2 and Beyond presentation: On 23 October 2014, D. Hillger gave a presentation to the JPSS-2 and Beyond: Instrument Improvements for Science Benefits Workshop. Hillger’s presentation was in support of VIIRS sending down all pixels that are now aggregated on board the satellite, in order to generate enhanced L1.5 SDRs that do not have either bowtie deletions or overlapping pixels. Other JPSS Teams also supported this change, in particular the SST Team, whose presentation was given by I. Gladkova of CREST. Many other suggested changes to VIIRS (and other JPSS instruments) were also presented, all of which were discussed to some level at the workshop, realizing that budget constraints will probably allow only those things with higher benefit-to-cost considerations. (D. Hillger)
Invited talk: On 21 October, J. Knaff gave an invited talk entitled “ATCF: Lessons learned on TC consensus forecasting” at the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) Validation Workshop held at NCAR. ICAP is an ad hoc aerosol numerical modeling working group founded by aerosol modeling developers from the operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers around the world. The primary goal of the 2014 ICAP meeting is development of an agreement on the complex topic of data verification protocols (see http://icap.atmos.und.edu/ for more information). (J. Knaff)
NWA Annual Meeting: E. Szoke attended NWA Annual Meeting in Salt Lake City, 20-23 October 2014, and presented two posters, one on CIRA’s GOES-R Proving Ground products and interactions (the other on the HRRR, which had just gone operational at NCEP). (E. Szoke)
CALMet Conference: CIRA was represented virtually at Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet) Online 2014, which was held asynchronously over 8 weeks from 6 October to 30 November 2014. The goal of CALMet Online 2014 was “to demonstrate a variety of learning approaches, suitable for application and adaptation across various institutions and practices.” B. Connell led a session on “Preparing for a New Satellite: New and Old Challenges Mixed with Opportunities.” The conference is officially closed, but the website remains open for enrollment and browsing the content: http://training.eumetsat.int/course/view.php?id=226 (B. Connell)
NWS Winter Weather Workshop: E. Szoke attended the Winter Weather Workshops at the Boulder National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) and made a presentation on GOES-R Proving Ground activities on 25 September and again on 9 October. (E. Szoke)
Lecture on Annular Hurricanes: J. Knaff gave a lecture in W. Schubert’s (CSU) AT710 – Atmospheric Vorticies class. The 1:15 lecture covered Annular Hurricanes (see Knaff et al. 2003). Unfortunately, this will be the last AT710 class offered at CSU as Prof. Schubert is retiring. (J. Knaff)
Lecture on Tropical Cyclone Structure: K. Musgrave gave a 75-minute lecture in Prof. W. Schubert’s (CSU) ATS710 – Geophysical Vortices class, focusing on the inner-core structure of tropical cyclones and its relationship with intensity change. (K. Musgrave)
Notes:
Eighth WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-8): J. Knaff and C. Slocum attended the IWTC-8 (1-8 December 2014) and the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (9-11 December) that were held on Jeju Island, Republic of Korea. J. Knaff made presentations during a special topic on objective structure analysis, and section 2.7 on Intensity Guidance. The IWTC is one of WMO’s major quadrennial workshop series organized by its World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). The Workshop is a special and unique gathering of tropical cyclone researchers and warning specialists from all regions affected by tropical cyclones, including those from Members belonging to the WMO TCP regional bodies. The main objectives of these workshops are 1) to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and 2) to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions. There were 27 recommendations. A few of these can be used to justify continuing tropical cyclone research and product development. Examples include:
BAMS Proposal: J. Knaff submitted a pre-publication proposal to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The topic is on TC structure. This is the outcome of a visit to NRLMRY. (J. Knaff)
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) Cover Selected: A paper discussing how tropical cyclone cold wakes can affect the intensity and intensification rate of future subsequent TCs encountering those wakes that was recently accepted for publication will be further highlighted as the cover of the upcoming issue of GRL (Volume 41, Issue 19). The reference for the paper is shown below and the cover art is show in the figure. The first three authors asked J. Knaff to join as an author after a suggestion offered in an initial review of the work led to substantial improvements. (J. Knaff)
Balaguru K., S. Taraphdar, L. R. Leung, G. R. Foltz, and J. A. Knaff, 2014: Cyclone-cyclone interactions through the ocean pathway. Geophy. Res. Let., 41:19.
Caption: Upcoming cover of the Geophysical Research Letters (vol. 41, no. 19)
| Traveler | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Musgrave | San Francisco, CA | AGU Fall Meeting | GOES-R3 | 14-19 December |
| S. Longmore | San Francisco, CA | AGU Fall Meeting | GOES-R3 | 14-19 December |
| S. Miller | San Francisco, CA | AGU Fall Meeting | JPSS PGRR DNB/NRL | 14-17 December |
| N. Tourville | San Francisco, CA | AGU Fall Meeting | CloudSat | 13-17 December |
| B. Connell | Denver, CO | Metro State Presentation* | SHyMet | 30 November |
| J. Knaff | Jeju Island Republic of South Korea | IWTC8 WMO* | CoRP Base | 29 November – 11 December |
| C. Slocum | Jeju Island Republic of South Korea | IWTC8 WMO | HFIP | 29 November – 11 December |
| K. Musgrave | Miami, FL | HFIP Diagnostics Meeting | HFIP | 20-23 November |
| E. Szoke | Madison, WI | AMS SLS | GSD/EAR | 3-7 November |
| D. Molenar | College Park, MD | JPSS Data to AWIPS2 | CoRP Base | 3-5 November |
| N. Tourville | Alexandria, VA | CloudSat Science Team Meeting | CloudSat | 3-5 November |
| H. Gosden | Boulder, CO | Proving Ground Meeting | GOES-R3 Proving Ground | 31 October |
| H. Gosden | Boulder, CO | Unidata Training | GOES-R3 Proving Ground | 30 October |
| S. Longmore | Boulder, CO | Unidata Training | GOES-R3 | 29 October |
| K. Musgrave | Boulder, CO | Unidata Training | HFIP | 27-29 October |
| N. Tourville | Boulder, CO | Unidata Training | GIMPAP | 21-22 October |
(* denotes explanations of meetings below)
J. Knaff – IWTC8 WMO – see Presentations/Notes.
B. Connell gave a presentation on GOES and GOES-R and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing/ Geographic Information Systems class at the Metropolitan State University of Denver on 30 November. Since their Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery.
VIIRS Imagery of Super Typhoon Vongfong: VIIRS imagery created at RAMMB was used by multiple media outlets on 7 and 8 October 2014. The day-night-band image from 7 Oct. was obtained by CIRA with relatively low latency (1 hr 45 mins) thanks to NASA IDPS making it available to us. A non-exhaustive list of the media mentions include: clip from The Weather Channel: ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/Lindsey/HD_2014-10-07_18_35_15.asf, The Capital Weather Gang:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/08/vongfong-the-most-fierce-super-typhoon-since-deadly-haiyan/, and slate.com: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/10/07/super_typhoon_vongfong_japan_the_strongest_storm_for_2014_so_far.html . Below is the Day Night Band image from 7 Oct. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, S. Finley)
Figure. VIIRS Day-Night-Band image from 7 Oct. 2014 at 1703 UTC of Super Typhoon Vongfong.
Contributions to S. Goodman talk at Lockheed Media Event: RAMMB/CIRA provided some imagery and loops to S. Goodman for his talk at a Lockheed Media Event in Denver. The event highlighted the various GOES-R instruments being assembled on the satellite at the Lockheed facility. An example of some of the resulting media coverage is here: http://denver.cbslocal.com/video/10756556-mobile-weather-lab-tracks-new-satellite-technology-better-storm-prediction/ (D. Lindsey)
VIIRS Imagery on Capital Weather Gang: RAMMB/CIRA has established a good working relationship with the Capital Weather Gang, part of the Washington Post. They often ask us for high resolution imagery of significant weather events, and in exchange, they’re happy to give the appropriate credit to NOAA. This week, we provided a VIIRS Infrared image of Super Typhoon Nuri in the west Pacific (image below); the article is here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/03/super-typhoon-nuri-on-track-to-be-strongest-storm-of-2014/. The Weather Channel has also occasionally shown satellite imagery provided by RAMMB/CIRA. (D. Lindsey)
Figure: VIIRS I-band-5 image of Super Typhoon Nuri over the west Pacific from 3 Nov 2014 at 0425 UTC.
VIIRS Imagery of Super Typhoon Hagupit: The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang featured VIIRS imagery from RAMMB/CIRA in its blog entry: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/04/dangerous-super-typhoon-hagupit-on-collision-course-with-philippines/. Below is one of the images they used. (D. Lindsey)
Figure. VIIRS I-band 5 image of Super Typhoon Hagupit from 4 Dec. 2014 at 0440 UTC.
NOAA Site Visit at CIRA/CSU: A NOAA Team conducted a Site Visit to CIRA on 10 December 2014. The objective of this visit was to review the progress on the NOAA Hurricane Sandy Relief Act awards distributed to CIRA. CIRA received a total of 20 of these awards, with 3 awards specifically funding CIRA/RAMMB activities. The visit included an administrative and a programmatic review. The NOAA visitors were: Stacy Tedder, Grants Management Division; Erica Crawley, Grants Management Specialist (contractor); Philip Hoffman, NOAA CI Program Manager; and Chelsea Berg, Cooperative Institutes Staff (OAR/LCI/CIS). CIRA/RAMMB Participants were Chris Kummerow (Director, CIRA), Steve Miller (Deputy Director, CIRA), Mary McInnis-Efaw (Assistant Director, CIRA), Sherri Shranz (Associate Director CIRA-Boulder), Don Hillger (Acting Chief RAMMB), Renate Brummer (CIRA/RAMMB Program Manager), Rosemary Borger (CIRA/RAMMB Administrative Support), CIRA Finance Team, CIRA Proposal Team, CSU Office of Sponsored Program, and CIRA Principle Investigators Bernie Connell, Andrea Schumacher, and Milija Zupanski. (R. Brummer)
Letter of Evaluation provided: A letter of evaluation for a potential hire was sent upon request of the Assistant Director of ESSIC at UMD. The person was evaluated based on material provided by the applicant, and upon the qualities specified by ESSIC. (D. Hillger)
NESDIS Data Management Planning Team (DMPT): Debra Molenar participated in the DMPT telecon held on 24 November 2014. The team is developing a data management plan for all NESDIS-operated satellites as required by the NOAA Data Management Planning Procedural Directive. Debra is replacing Ingrid Guch as the STAR representative on the team. (D.Molenar)
NESDIS Environmental Data Management Committee (EDMC): Debra Molenar replaced Ingrid Guch as the backup NESDIS representative on the EDMC. The committee finalized version 2 of the Data Management Planning Procedural Directive for distribution to the NOAA Observing Systems Council (NOSC). (D.Molenar)
Mark DeMaria Visit: Mark DeMaria visited CIRA on 23 December 2014. He spoke to several CIRA and RAMM Branch scientists.
Hollings Scholar visit: Benjamin Trabing, and undergraduate student at the University of Oklahoma, visited CIRA/RAMMB from 16-18 December 2014 to conduct a site visit. Benjamin is a recipient of a 2014 Hollings Scholarship and will be beginning an internship with mentor J. Knaff, collaborator A. Schumacher, and other CIRA/RAMMB scientists in the summer of 2015. His research will focus on the role of lightning in tropical cyclone intensification and/or genesis. (A. Schumacher)
NWS Satellite Liaisons Visit: On 3-4 December 2014, D. Molenar and S. Longmore held a 2-day AWIPS II training session for NWS Satellite Liaisons Michael Folmer, Weather Prediction Center/Ocean Prediction Center/Satellite Analysis Branch (WPC/OPC/SAB), Amanda Terbourg, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), and Bill Line, Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The training provided an overview of AWIPS II and focused on adding products to the National Centers display perspective (NCP). CIRA experimental satellite products, such as GeoColor and GOES Sounder RGB Airmass, currently used by the National Centers in NAWIPS, were added to the AWIPS II NCP. The training also covered adding HRRR gridded data ingest and display to the NCP. Materials from the training course were also sent to National Hurricane Center and Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites staff. (D. Molenar, S. Longmore)
CICS/UMD Visitor: Patrick Meyers of the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites(CICS) – University of Maryland visited Debra Molenar at CIRA on 30 October for training on McIDAS and AWIPS II image display capabilities. (D. Molenar)
Daniel Nietfeld Visit: Daniel Nietfeld, the Science and Operations Officer from the Omaha, NE, National Weather Service office, visited CIRA/RAMMB on Tuesday 30 September 2014. He gave a seminar entitled “The Role of the Mesoanalyst in the NWS WFO During High Impact Events,” and met with the CIRA Proving Ground team to discuss current and future GOES-R products. (D. Lindsey)
Bob Rabin Visit: Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited RAMMB/CIRA on 1-2 October 2014. We discussed a number of current and future collaborative projects, most involving GOES-R. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)