Weaver, Dostalek, Grasso, Hilgendorf, Bikos, Motta
A paper entitled “Examples of nowcasting in central Plains and southeastern United States severe thunderstorm environments using satellite and Doppler radar” by J. Weaver, E, Hilgendorf, L. Grasso, and K. Pence (NWS) was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. The paper demonstrates how the combination of satellite imagery and Doppler radar data together produce much more accurate severe thunderstorm nowcasts than either one alone.
The paper “Severe Thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A Satellite Training Case” by J. Weaver, J. Dostalek, B. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom is in press at National Weather Digest. No final publication date has been assigned.
The data collection segment of the Lubbock, TX dryline experiment is complete. Several interesting cases of severe weather in the Texas panhandle have been documented. Research on a severe weather outbreak that occurred on 25 May 1999 is continuing. This work will culminate in a journal article (see Lubbock Dryline Experiment).
A case study entitled “A Satellite Perspective of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Comments on Lightning Activity” is being developed for the National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 in Norman, OK from 2-5 May 2000. The study will focus on synoptic and mesoscale aspects of the tornado outbreak using GOES satellite imagery and cloud-to-ground lightning data.
Tropical Cyclones
DeMaria, Zehr, Hilgendorf, Knaff, Phillips
Large geostationary image data sets were archived to support hurricane research. Thirty-minute interval GOES IR 4 km Mercator remapped images in MCIDAS format from 1999 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones were added to the CD-ROM archive which now contains over 22,000 images with 89 cases on 14 CDs. After additional processing there will be at least 26,000 images with 107 tropical cyclones. This project will support research on a variety of topics. Motion relative composite images stratified by intensity and cloud asymmetry measurements have been completed with a small subset of the archive.
Super Rapid Scan Operations (SRSO) data sets were archived during the 1999 hurricane season for several periods with Hurricanes Dora, Bret, Dennis, Floyd, and Irene. The 1-minute interval images are to be used to derive high density wind sets and analyses of upper core wind fields for use along with aircraft observations to investigate intensity change. This year’s data sets were improved due to the capability to define the sector with a latitude-longitude center as opposed to predefined sectors. Unprecedented SRSO data coverage was obtained with Hurricane Floyd with 2-5 hours of SRSO on eight consecutive days capturing most of its life cycle.
Research continues on a quantitative assessment of the vertical wind shear forcing on hurricane intensity change. Preliminary analyses of 1999 Hurricanes Bret and Floyd were completed to assess vertical wind shear influences in addition to investigation of minimum sea level pressure – maximum wind relationships. Aircraft reconnaissance center fix data were archived for the 1999 flights.
Rainfall data associated with 50 more land-falling tropical cyclones were extracted from the NCDC archive CD-ROMS. We now have 116 cyclones, both hurricanes and tropical storms, represented in our database. These will be utilized in a research program to be sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to provide a historical archive of rainfall patterns from land-falling tropical cyclones. That archive would then be utilized to develop a statistical rainfall forecasting algorithm whereby the climatological rainfall rate could be adjusted using current storm information and satellite imagery.
The development of a program to identify rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones is continuing. Recent progress has been made in changing the code to conform with McIDAS 7.5. Development will continue during the next quarter.
A note submitted to Weather and Forecasting entitled “Temperature structures of two similarly appearing cyclone systems from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit” by John Knaff, Raymond Zehr, Mitchell Goldberg, and Stan Kidder was accepted pending revisions. The note presents details of middle and upper tropospheric temperature differences between two cyclone systems, one a decaying tropical cyclone and the other that had a clear subtropical origin. Revisions continue.
A paper discussing deep convective oscillations in tropical cyclones by J. Knaff and R. Zehr has been written, submitted for internal review, and is being prepared for submission to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.
Extra Tropical Cyclones
Dostalek
Data from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) has been used to retrieve wind fields at the mandatory pressure levels for a mid-latitude low in the eastern Pacific. The method uses temperature retrievals from the AMSU, with boundary conditions supplied from the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s Aviation model, to generate the height field. A linear balance equation is used to produce the wind field. Work continues to resolve contamination from precipitation and cloud liquid water as well a more timely methods for creating solving the non-linear balance equation.
Work has begun to use AMSU data to generate height and wind fields in a similar manner as has been applied to the tropical cyclone. For this project a single stationary region off the West Coast of the United States has been chosen as a test region. Results will be displayed in semi-real-time on the World Wide Web.
In preparation for the upcoming Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET), to be held during the winter season 2000/2001: A program entitled ret2grad.f was written to convert the ASCII output of heights, temperature, the u- and v-component of the wind at 10 pressure levels, as well as surface pressure to GrADS format. This will allow for flexible data analysis for case studies from the experiment. A program entitled AMSUMD.PGM was written to convert ASCII data of winds derived from AMSU temperature retrievals into a McIDAS MD file, which allows the vectors to be overlaid on satellite imagery. These programs, in addition to the overall retrieval scheme, will be tested, modified, and applied to case studies as necessary during the next year in preparation for PACJET.
Natural Hazards
Zehr, Weaver, Connell
Following the Ft. Collins flood of 28 July 1997, a lack of training for E-911 dispatchers in catastrophic weather-related incidents was found to be common to many natural disasters that have occurred across the country over the past eight years (period researched). Natural disaster response cards for dispatchers, aimed at in-service training and real-time guidance, were designed then reviewed by NWS staff, scientists, emergency managers, as well as FEMA and Red Cross staff. The cards are now on the web, and initial reviews from emergency managers around the country are positive. The first VISIT teletraining session describing this work was given this quarter. Input from WCMs and EMs at Goodland and Wichita in Kansas, and the WCM at Norman Oklahoma that took this first course was helpful. Cards may be viewed at:
http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/c_safety/oem/overview_ndic.htm
GOES Product Improvement and Development
Hillger, Campbell, Combs, Dostalek
An article entitled “GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection” by J. Dostalek and T. Schmit (of CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin-Madison) was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. The article compares the performance of the GOES-8 sounder derived product imagery’s (DPI) total precipitable water (TPW) and lifted index (LI) products to radiosonde derived values for the 12 month period March 1998-February 1999, and demonstrates the usefulness of the TPW and LI DPI in forecasting and monitoring a dryline thunderstorm outbreak on the western Plains on 17 June 1998.
POES Data and Products
Hillger
At the request of Jim Purdom and Paul Menzel, data from the new Chinese FY-1C polar satellite was received from Chris Moeller at CIMSS and was analyzed at CIRA using structure analysis to estimate the noise in all 10 bands. The analysis uses a homogeneous region on the image to determine the noise between adjacent pixels by removing any gradient by extrapolation. Results show that noise in the visible channels is about 1 count, in the shortwave window is 2 to 4 counts, in the longwave window is 2 to 3 counts, in the dirty window is 6 counts, in the 1.6 um channel is 1 to 3 counts; and in the ocean color bands, is less than 1 count (all out of 10 bit digitization).
Precipitation
Grasso, Hilgendorf
A multi-platform precipitation algorithm which includes surface observations and satellite data, is being changed for use with McIDAS 7.5. This algorithm is meant to estimate a maximum potential rainfall for the purpose of assisting in flash flood forecasting.
Based on reviewer comments, a note entitled “Observations of anvil reflectivity at 3.9 µm as viewed from GOES imagery” that was submitted to Monthly Weather Review is being expanded into a full article.
Connell, Combs
Processing of the US climatologies continued on schedule. These included large sector composites for September, October, and November 1999, and wind regime composites for August, September, and October 1999. Combined products cover 1998 and 1999 for GOES channels 1 and 4 were processed for August, September, and October.
The cloud cover percentage climatologies, covering the east and midwest US for the summer months of June, July and August for 1998 and 1999, were also combined. This was done for each daylight hour, creating a time series loop. The results will soon be shown on the RAMM team website.
| Figure 1a Percent cloud cover as determined by compositing visible channel images taken at 1245 UTC for June, July, and August 1998-1999 | Figure 1b Percent cloud cover as determined by compositing visible channel images taken at 1845 UTC for June, July, and August 1998-1999 |
Click on images to enlarge
The Tallahassee Summer Sea Breeze Satellite climatology project was initiated in the summer of 1995 to develop satellite composites based on low-level flow regimes. During the last few months, visible imagery from June, July, and August for 1999 were checked for navigation and added to the existing archive. The archive now contains 4 summers of satellite images. Ken Gould with the NWS in Tallahassee has worked with CIRA in the development of these composites. A mean boundary layer wind for each day is determined at the Tallahassee WFO and the satellite images are composited for the 9 regime types. This summer, the compositing process was switched from an average to a threshold technique. This gives a more quantitative result and is depicted as cloud frequency. A paper has been prepared for the AMS annual meeting to be held in January 2000.
Winds and Cloud Heights
Campbell
A test has been completed estimating cloud motion and height from two different polar orbiter platforms. The multiple view Polder Observations were combined with AVHRR to show some skill in deriving cloud motion and height over Alaska. The accuracy is limited by the 6 km resolution of the Polder data.
Polder visible wavelength image centered at 70 north and 157 west. The numbers show heights in hectometers (1 = 100 meters). Image taken at 2300 UTC on 19 June 1997. Click on image to enlarge
Computer-code for cloud tracking and for height and motion analysis was transferred to the U.S. Air Force for testing and possible implementation in their real time weather analysis.
Collaboration with Eumetsat is continuing with an effort to test the methods with a combination of AVHRR and Meteosat.
National Labs
Weaver, Motta, Zehr
Several RAMM team staff served as COMET-COMAP mentors in the NCAR Autonowcaster group. The group learned about the algorithms that are used to process the Doppler radar data that in turn generate the autonowcasts. These automated nowcasts will be used as part of SCAN by the NWS in AWIPS. Possible applications and current efforts involving GOES satellite data and Rapid Scan Operations imagery were discussed.
Interaction continues with Hurricane Research Division (HRD) at AOML on use of Tropical RAMSDIS and collaborative research projects.
Universities
Zehr, Grasso, Molenar, Weaver
J. Weaver and N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University) have submitted an abstract to the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology entitled “Microscale rainfall variations as measured by a local volunteer network.” The paper reports on results from the first two years of data collection by citizen-participants in a city-wide, volunteer precipitation measuring mesonetwork.
As in past years during the “hurricane season,” daily briefings were presented in the CIRA Lab with participation of CSU faculty and graduate students. Briefings were presented by CIRA personnel and CSU graduate students. A short article regarding the briefings appeared in the CIRA Newsletter.
An empirical method for predicting the 24-hour intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes, is being run in real time for evaluation with 1999 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific cases. This is a new version of the technique which was initially developed in 1992 by Ray Zehr and Roger Phillips. It combines qualitative input based on animated GOES imagery with quantitative information on vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature from operational models. This work is supervised by Ray Zehr, and is being done by Todd Kimberlain and Eric Blake, Colorado State University graduate students.
Interaction continues with NCAR (Dr. Mel Shapiro) and Pennsylvania State University (PSU) on VIS-5D formatted MM5 model output for the winter season snow storm case currently under examination/development for training. The Boston, MA NWS WFO is also participating in identifying the training topics in the case.
Using eight consecutive days (September 8-15) of SRSO (1-minute interval) images that were requested for 2-3 hour periods during Hurricane Floyd, high-density winds will be created using a modified version of the CIMSS, University of Wisconsin wind code. This collaborative research with C. Velden will examine the potential relationships between tropical cyclone intensity and the upper-level cyclonic outflow and the evolution of the upper-level wind field in this hurricane.
L. Grasso continued to collaborate with doctoral students on the numerical simulations of convective storms.
NWS
Dostalek, Motta, Molenar, Weaver, Bikos, Connell, DeMaria, Zajac
The Science and Operations Officers from WFO Sioux Falls, SD and WFO Tallahassee, FL are assisting B. Zajac in the development of the second VISIT teletraining session on lightning. This session will present radar-lightning case studies from severe weather outbreaks over both regions. Lightning experts from the National Severe Storms Laboratory are also assisting with the session, providing text and figures for a section on thunderstorm electrification.
B. Zajac is collaborating with the Science and Operations Officer and a lead forecaster from WFO Pueblo, CO to develop a 10-year climatology of cloud-to-ground lightning activity over Colorado. The climatology will document the spatial, annual, and diurnal distributions of cloud-to-ground lightning.
J. Weaver and J. Dostalek are continuing their work with Loren Phillips, SOO at Lubbock, TX, on the 25 May 1999 thunderstorm case. See Lubbock Dryline Experiment
Kevin Schrab of NWS WRH visited CIRA on Nov. 1. Kevin made several improvements to the RAMM psuedo AWIPS capabilities, including the addition of access to NWS WRH AWIPS experimental satellite products and the ability to display real-time satellite data from the CIRA groundstation in the satellite projection. Bugs in the satellite display are still being addressed.
The Boston, MA NWS WFO is participating in identifying the training topics in the winter storm case.
M. De Maria, J. Knaff, and B. Motta participated in the NWS/OM GOES Assessment meeting and the NOAA/SAO GOES Image Assessment.
Interaction with the Tallahassee WFO continued and preliminary results of visible cloud frequency composites for 1996-1999 have been obtained. For more information and product examples, see the Climatology section.
M. DeMaria participated in the NWS Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment. The final report is scheduled to be completed in February, 2000.
Hillger
On December 8, Don Hillger presented a talk at the R&D Council Plenary Session on Soundings and Winds. The talk was on “Asynchronous Stereo Cloud Height and Motion,” work done mainly by Garrett Campbell at CIRA.
WMO
Connell
Two CIRA staff members prepared and presented lectures for a WMO sponsored 2- week satellite meteorology training event held at the Regional Meteorological Training Center in Costa Rica during 6-17 December. Topics included: An introduction to the GOES Imager channels, Sounder Channels, mesoscale cloud drift winds from satellites, GOES imager calibration and image quality, mesoscale features in weather analysis and forecasting, volcanic ash and dust detection, the Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity techniques, and satellite climatologies. Labs were held on radiative transfer, feature identification, imagery at rapid intervals, water vapor imagery, Dvorak technique, satellite climatology, and fire detection. Computers were used for the lab exercises and near real time imagery were used by the participants in the daily weather briefings. A project to make RAMSDIS available to all countries was announced and received strong interest.
Other lectures were presented at the same training event by faculty and staff at the Universidad de Costa Rica, Instituto Meteorologico Nacional, Universidad Nacional, Instituto Costtarricense de Electricidad, and the WMO. The training event was attended by 19 WMO sponsored participants from 16 countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean (Argentine, Bahamas, Bolivia, Columbia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Mexico, Netherland Antilles, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela). Participants from four countries in Central America were sponsored by the Hurricane Mitch recovery efforts (Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras). Locally from the University of Costa Rica, 5 BSc students (Paraguay, 2 from Venezuela, and 2 from Costa Rica), 5 RMTC graduate students from Mexico, and 5 participants from the National Meteorological Service attended.
Miscellaneous
DeMaria, Motta, Molenar, Watson, Dostalek, Weaver, Zehr, Hillger, Zajac, Hilgendorf, Gosden
Collaborative work continues with the Indo – US Tropical Cyclone Project. The 2nd Science Group Meeting for the cooperative research projects with NOAA/NASA and Indian scientists met on 15-17 November 1999, at the Ashoka Hotel, New Delhi, INDIA. R. Zehr is co – principal investigator with Dr. S.R. Kalsi of the India Meteorological Department. The title of the Project is “Development of operational techniques to predict the intensity and movement of cyclone storms and associated surges.” A work plan was finalized with a time line for First Year activities and the longer-term goals for a 3-year plan. Case studies of the three 1999 tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are to be completed in the first year using combined analyses of available satellite data sets, and to evaluate additional information from the newer data sets (such as microwave imager and sounder, scatterometer data, satellite wind vectors).
Meetings/Conferences
Travelers
D. Molenar T. Smith
Destinations
Madison, WI
Funding
BASE GIMPAP
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/RAMM
CIRA, W. Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University
West Laporte Avenue
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
October 13, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Debra Molenar
RAMMT Computer Specialist
SUBJECT: McIDAS User’s Group Meeting
October 4 and 5, 1999
Madison, WI
I attended the annual McIDAS User’s Group meeting on Oct. 4 and 5. While at the meeting, I made arrangements for Programmer training to be held at CIRA. The McIDAS trainer is available in either early Nov. or early Dec. Linda Moodie [lmoodie@nesdis.noaa.gov] and I also met with a representative of EUMETSAT regarding their use of RAMSDIS software for training purposes. Their training needs are still not well-defined, so I gave them information from the RAMSDIS web page and indicated that the software would be made available to them if they determined that it met their training needs.
Some planned additions to McIDAS 7.7 that will benefit our group include:
– addition of a MODIS ADDE server
– 2 byte remap addition to ADDE IMG commands
– ability to read data in netCDF format
– addition of a new McIDAS command similar to SR
– addition of new PT commands to replace UC, SC, UP, SP, etc.
– high resolution USGS map sectors available from SSEC
– additional decoders (including gribdec) incorporated into standard code.
The 7.7 release is scheduled for May 2000. I volunteered us for beta testing of the 2 byte remap as soon as it’s available.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
M. DeMaria
Destinations
Islip, NY/Washington, DC/Miami
Funding
BASE GIMPAP
Dates
Oct 4 & 5
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Hurricane Floyd Service Assesment
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
October 12, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: NWS Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment Team Meetings
Bohemia NY, Herndon VA, Camp Springs MD, Miami FL
October 4-8, 1999
A Service Assessment Team was assembled in early October to assess the performance of the end-to-end forecast process of the National Weather Service during Hurricane Floyd, which affected the U.S. East Coast in mid-September. The team includes eight members, and is headed by Steve Thomas, the Meteorologist-In-Charge at the St. Louis forecast office. Other members include Mark DeMaria (the NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Leader), Jim Butch (the Jackson, Mississippi Warning Coordination Meteorologist), Harold Opitz (the Hydrologist-In-Charge at the Portland, Oregon River Forecast Center (RFC)), John Leslie (NOAA/NWS Public Affairs), Jim Noel and Julie Dian-Reed (hydrologists at the Ohio RFC), and Jasmine Raid (a Sociologist from the U. of Delaware). During a preliminary telephone conference call, the Office of Meteorology provided the team with some guidelines for the assessment. Goals include plans to complete the assessment by February, 2000, to make the write-up shorter than in the past, and to focus on recommendations that are feasible (previous assessments have taken up to 15 months to complete). The geographic area for the assessment includes the East Coast from South Carolina to New England. We were also instructed to inquire about the performance of AWIPS during the event.
On Monday October 4th, I traveled to Bohemia, NY to attend an organizational meeting at Eastern Region Headquarters (ERH), which began early on Tuesday morning. ERH gave a briefing of preliminary findings, and listed the agencies which need to be visited. On the this first week of the assessment, most of the team members were going to concentrate on mid-Atlantic and N.E. forecast offices, and the mid-Atlantic RFC in State College, PA. A second week of travel (to be scheduled in a few weeks) will focus on the harder hit areas of North Carolina and Virginia. Because of my experience with NESDIS and the National Centers, I was assigned visits to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), the Marine Prediction Center (MPC), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and the NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). Jim Butch was also assigned to the “NESDIS/NCEP” team. Due to its proximity to Washington, we were also assigned to the Sterling, VA forecast office.
Tuesday afternoon, Jim and I left for the Sterling, VA forecast office, which we visited Wednesday morning (October 5th). Wednesday afternoon we visited SAB, and on Thursday, we met with representatives from HPC, MPC and CPC. Thursday night we traveled to Miami and visited TPC most of the day on Friday (October 8th). I returned to Fort Collins on Saturday.
Preliminary finding indicate that, in general, the predictions by the National Centers and the forecast offices were quite good. The skill of the track and intensity forecasts from TPC, and the skill scores of the HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) were much better than the long term averages. Warning messages from some forecast offices included predictions of floods of “historic proportions”. Some problems included the under-estimation of the precipitation totals by the radar at the Sterling forecast office. It also appears that some offices make little use of satellite precipitation estimates. There were also some issues that arose when the Wakefield office lost communications due to flooding, and had to be backed up by other offices. There are inconsistencies between the services and products provided by different RFCs, which need to be standardized. There was also discussion of increasing the participation of the RFCs during emergency management coordination activities. There were also some discrepancies between storm surge prediction from the SLOSH model, based on “canned” forecasts using an ensemble of forecast tracks and intensities, and those based upon the actual forecast track. This difference is likely due to the complexities of the Chesapeake Bay. Based upon the information from ERH and Sterling, it appears that AWIPS functioned well, despite different offices having different versions of the software. However, the use of AWIPS at the National Centers is severely hampered by software, which is not general enough to display data over their areas of responsibility. There was also some discussion of the use of the Internet, which varies considerably from office to office. From the point of view of NCEP, the coordination between HPC and TPC on forecast tracks and precipitation forecasting went very smooth. However, there was a perception from other participants on the hurricane hotline call that there was some disagreement between the two centers. This perception might be due “pre-coordination” activities that non-NCEP participants do not have access to. The coordination between SAB and HPC also appeared to go well. The CPC began issuing a new “threats” product, which provides a 3-10 day outlook for severe weather. This product gave a very early “heads-up” to possible flooding due to Floyd, which emergency managers in the region serviced by the Sterling office said was extremely useful. However, TPC has gotten some negative feedback as to the “skill” of this type of product (did CPC get lucky during Floyd?). More information will be gathered in about two weeks, when the team visits North Carolina and Virginia.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
B. Zajac
Destinations
Norman, OK
Funding
VISIT
Dates
Oct 11 – 13
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
OTB, NSSL
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Bard Zajac
SUBJECT: Operations Training Branch and National Severe Storms Lab Visit
Norman, OK, October 12 & 13, 1999
B. Zajac traveled to Norman, OK from October 12-13 to get assistance with the development a new VISIT lightning teletraining session from Mike Magsig (Operations Training Branch) and Don MacGorman and Dave Rust (National Severe Storms Laboratory).
M. Magsig is assisting with AWIPS lightning-radar case studies; archived cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and WSR-88D data will be displayed in AWIPS. Archived WSR-88D data has been displayed in AWIPS, but efforts to do this with archived CG lightning data have been unsuccessful. Assistance from FSL is being sought.
D. MacGorman and D. Rust are assisting with the treatment of thunderstorm electrical structure and electrification. They will advise B. Zajac on what information present, and will provide figures for the lightning session.
In addition to these topics, the lightning session will discuss spatial, annual, and summertime diurnal distributions of positive and negative polarity cloud-to-ground lightning over the CONUS and County Warning Areas of the participating NWS WFOs. The performance of the National Lightning Detection Network will also be discussed, focusing on the possible false detection of intracloud lightning as CG lightning over the southeastern U.S.
Travelers
T. Smith
Destinations
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica
Funding
USAID
Dates
Oct 11 – 22
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Mitch Recovery
October 27, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
FROM: Todd Smith, Research Associate
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
Central American Trip for the Hurricane Mitch Project
October 11 – 23, 1999
From Monday (10/11/99) to Saturday (10/23/99) I traveled to five Central American countries in order to determine the feasibility of installing a ground station for GOES and POES reception in one of the countries as well as installing two RAMSDIS workstations in each of the countries. My companions on the trip were; Jim Ellickson (Hurricane Mitch Project Leader – NESDIS), Janice Sessing (International Affairs Office – NESDIS), and Bob Oehlkers (CIMMS). The goals of this trip were:
In each country we met with the director of the meteorological office, a representative from USAID, as well as the directors of other agencies that might benefit from satellite data.
In talking with the director of the meteorological office in Costa Rica we learned that the directors of the meteorological offices in each country had held a meeting previous to our arrival and decided that it would be best if the ground station was located in Costa Rica. This was confirmed by the director of the meteorological office in each country. We also found that the Systems West GOES satellite antenna on top of the meteorology building in Costa Rica can probably be used for the RAMSDIS feed so only a POES antenna will need to be installed.
The prospect of gaining near real-time access to satellite data was received with excitement by all of the countries. Most of the meteorological offices were using WEFAX and Star-4 systems as well as NOAA web sites to augment their satellite data. In general we found that the meteorologists in each country were using their existing equipment to its fullest capacity but needed more modern technology in order to significantly improve their forecasting ability.
In our meetings in Costa Rica it was proposed that a preliminary training session be added to our train schedule. The two meteorologists representing each of the ‘Mitch’ countries will attend the training session at the RMTC in Costa Rica that has already been scheduled for December of this year. Dr. Vilma Castro and Dr. Walter Fernadez from the RMTC have both agreed that this would be a good idea and have confirmed that they have the room for the additional students. It is intended that the WMO will fund one of the meteorologists and the Hurricane Mitch Project will fund the other.
An issue that came up in virtually all of our meetings with the directors of the various meteorological offices was the fact that Belize and Panama were not included in the Hurricane Mitch project. This issue has become politically sensitive and the commonly suggested solution would be to allow the two countries to ‘buy in’ to the project if they so chose. This would mean that they would have to purchase the necessary hardware and software as well as pay for training but the data would then be freely available.
There are two issues that need to be addressed in order to insure the success of this project. The first is internet speed and reliability. Each meteorological office is connected to the internet by MODEM but has insufficient band-width to run a RAMSDIS workstation. We have been using 56kbs as a functional minimum band-width but even at that speed the number of products being ingested would have to be kept to a minimum. The current internet speed of the meteorological offices varied between 33kbs and 14.4kbs. Bob Oelhkers brought up the idea of using the VSAT system that has been used for the Star-4 systems. He believes that it might be possible to get an internet connection of sufficient band-width via the VSAT satellite link. This would also reduce their vulnerability to disruptions of telephone lines during severe storms. He is currently looking into this possibility. The second issue that needs to be dealt with may be more problematic. The money from the Hurricane Mitch project must be spent by the end of 2001. This leaves each country with the problem of securing funds to maintain the equipment over the long-term. To address the problem of sustainability we met with organizations such as; emergency management offices, hydroelectric power generation departments, departments of forestry, departments of agriculture, and local universities. It is our hope that these organizations and others will benefit from the satellite data and will contribute to its continuing support. We brought up the possibility of each country setting up a server to distribute imagery in a manner similar to RAMSDIS On-Line in order to make the data available to these organizations.
Another issue that should be considered is how much support CIRA will be expected to provide after December 31, 2001. There may be an implicit assumption that CIRA will provide software support and upgrades indefinitely, this needs to be decided so that there will be no misunderstandings.
The following is a list of contacts organized by country:
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Honduras
El Salvador
David Johnston – USAID
Zimmerman – Director, meteorological office
Dr. Franciso Ferrer – Director General, COEN (emergency management agency)
Orlando Castillo – Subdirector, COEN
Mauricio Salazar – Director, SICA
Rosa Moyra – USAID
Travelers
M. DeMaria
Destinations
Washington, DC, Raleigh, NC, and Atlanta, GA
Funding
GIMPAP NWS
Dates
Oct 18 – 22
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
USWRP Meeting Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment Meetings
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
October 25, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
USWRP Science Steering Committee Meeting, Washington DC
Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment, Raleigh, NC and Atlanta, GA
October 17-22, 1999
I traveled to Washington, DC on Sunday, October 17, 1999 to attend the U.S. Weather Research Program Science Steering Committee Meeting, which began Monday morning at the American Geophysical Union. Most of the first day of the meeting was devoted to a review of the implementation plan of the Hurricanes at Landfall (HAL) portion of the USWRP. The purpose of the plan was to establish a timetable for the research that has been proposed so far, including the transition of the results to operations. The establishment of a Hurricane Operational Transition (HOT) center at the National Hurricane Center in Miami was proposed. A few permanent staff members would be housed at the HOT, and would work with scientific visitors who wish to test research results in an operational environment. A similar arrangement was proposed for NCEP, where a National Test Bed (NTB) would be established (probably at the NOAA Science Center) where visitors could transition numerical weather prediction research to operations.
During lunch, Jack Kelly, James Baker and David Evans gave brief talks on the role of USWRP within NOAA, and were somewhat encouraging about the eventual funding of the program, (with the fairly high levels of funding beginning in 2001). The funding level for 2000, however, is much less. Later in the meeting, John Gaynor mentioned that the SWPI funds for 2000 were supposed to be combined with USWRP funds, and that a joint NOAA/NSF request for proposals would be released later this year. However, there is a chance that the SWPI funds might be diverted to provide “matching funds” for a radar system that was “donated” by DOD. Also, Steve Nelson said that it is unlikely that there will be a new RFP in FY00. These two events may make it difficult to obtain follow-up funding for the SWPI work at CIRA.
The end of the first day, and the second day of the meeting were dedicated to the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) and data assimilation parts of the USWRP. Several new field experiments are planned, and there was considerable discussion concerning the coordination of
these efforts. It is likely that CIRA and CIMSS will help to provide satellite support for some of these experiments. The implementation plan for the QPF and data assimilation efforts were also discussed, and an update on the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model was provided.
I traveled to Raleigh, NC Tuesday night and Atlanta, GA Wednesday night, as part of the Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment Team. My group visited the Raleigh, NC forecast office, two emergency operations centers in eastern North Carolina (where the flooding from Floyd was the most severe), and the River Forecast Center in Atlanta. The flood damage in some of the smaller towns of North Carolina was extremely widespread. On Friday, the entire team met at the RFC to compare notes, and to develop an outline for the assessment write-up. I will primarily be involved in providing the meteorological overview of the storm, and documenting the performance of the National Centers. I also had the opportunity to make a number of new contacts within the National Weather Service.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
D. Hillger J. Knaff L. Grasso
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Oct 19
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
NOAA Science Advisory Board – Presentations included modeling dry line sensitivity to soil moisture, applications of the advanced microwave sounding unit in examining tropical cyclones, and asynchronous satellite derived stereo wind and height calculations.
Travelers
B. Zajac
Destinations
Pueblo, CO
Funding
VISIT
Dates
Oct 26
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Meeting w. Steve Hodanish (NWS)
October 26, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
FROM: Bard Zajac, Research Associate
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
NWS WFO Pueblo, CO
October 26, 1999
B. Zajac met with Paul Wolyn (SOO) and Steve Hodanish (Senior Forecaster) at WFO Pueblo on October 26 to outline efforts in developing a 10-year climatology of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning activity over the state of Colorado. The main points of discussion were the distribution of work (analysis and writing) and the analysis method. It was agreed that B. Zajac would perform the analysis, documenting spatial, annual, and diurnal variations over Colorado at 10km grid spacing. B. Zajac will produce preliminary maps of annual and monthly CG flash density and CG lightning days by the end of February. S. Hodanish will incorporate the results into a manuscript for publication. In addition, S. Hodanish will submit a proposal for COMET Partners Project, which would pay for publication and travel expenses.
Travelers
B. Zajac
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Oct 27
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Sioux Falls NWS WFO Meetingx
October 27, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
FROM: Bard Zajac, Research Associate
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
NWS WFO Sioux Falls Meeting in Boulder, CO
October 27, 1999
B. Zajac met with Phil Schumacher (SOO) at NCAR/COMET in Boulder on October 27 to discuss the selection of lightning-radar case studies over Sioux Falls from 1996 as part of the next VISIT teletraining session on lightning. Twenty-one lightning-radar cases studies have already been developed by B. Zajac over Sioux Falls from 1996 using low-resolution radar data; more than half of these cases contain storms which produce an anomalously high fraction of positive polarity CG lightning, a possible indicator of severe weather (large hail and/or tornadoes). P. Schumacher will select 2-4 cases deemed representative of forecasting problems over Sioux Falls by November 5. These cases will be extended to include high-resolution radar data, and will be showcased in the next VISIT teletraining session on lightning (ready for beta-testing in December 1999). Upon a brief review of the 21 cases, P. Schumacher noted that one case (June 20) was significant for producing flash flooding (5-10″ rainfall) over northwestern Iowa. Another case (August 6) was reported to produce one tornado and multiple occurrences of large hail and strong winds over northwestern Iowa; 14 tornado warnings were issued on this day by WFO Sioux Falls. It is worth noting that P. Schumacher is already collaborating with Robert Weisman (St. Cloud State, MN) to develop a CG lightning climatology for the northern Great Plains, and is examining cases from 1996 for use in COMET courses on hydrometeorology.
Travelers
B. Zajac
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Nov 1
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
STEP Field Project Meeting, NCAR
November 3, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
FROM: Bard Zajac, Research Associate
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
STEPS Field Project Meeting, Boulder, CO
November 1, 1999
I would like to give a brief report about the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) field project meeting held yesterday (11/1/99) at NCAR. The meeting was organized by project leader Jay Miller (NCAR/MMM) to discuss the possible relocation of the project from Goodland, KS to Greeley, CO due to NSF budget constraints. The meeting was attended by a large number of project participants as well as representatives from NWS WFO Goodland.
The NSF Facilities Advisory Council (FAC) asked STEPS participants to consider relocating the project in the interest of funding other projects. The main cost difference between Goodland and Greeley is the relocation of the CSU-CHILL 10-cm polarimetric radar. As stated by the FAC:
Therefore, the FAC asks that STEPS give very serious consideration to an option discussed by the panel: re-location of the experiment resources in a manner that would not move CHILL. The response by STEPS participants can be easily summarized:
1) Overwhelming evidence in favor of deploying near the Colorado-Kansas border (i.e., Goodland) based on studies of severe weather, dryline position, and lightning activity
2) Proposal on the part of CSU to provide funding sufficient to move the CHILL radar to the Goodland area
The attending member of the NSF FAC stated that the CSU proposal would be approved, allowing the project to precede as originally planned (with the one major exception of cutting the project from 12 weeks to 8 weeks).
Information about the project can be found at the following websites:
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/community/steps.html
http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/community/steps-relocation.html
Travelers
J. Weaver B. Motta D. Hillger
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Nov 2
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
COMETGOES Image Evaluation Meeting
November 5, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Brian C. Motta
SUBJECT: NOAA Systems Acquisition Office of imagery evaluation
COMET, Boulder, CO, November 2, 1999
I participated in an evaluation sponsored by the NOAA Systems Acquisition Office of imagery that was “processed” by various filters in an attempt to derive additional information from the GOES imager imagery (which is oversampled in the along-scan-line direction). There were different examples and processing used to demonstrate the capability.
The viewer was generated by Dave Santek @ SSEC and was basically a GUI to drive McIDAS. The CIRA participants (John Weaver and Don Hillger as well) really put the imagery through some paces. We thought the cases elected were fairly poor to show what they attempting to enhance. Most of the filters are scene-dependent in their “enhancement” of the imagery which is similar to what the EUVIS comand does for the visible on RAMSDIS. The problem comes when you do that with IR imagery and the color enhancement tables no longer map from image to image. The brightness-temperature relationship is also changed and that was not accounted for in the calibration. There also seemed to be some potential geolocation issues arising from the filters. However, no description of the filters or other details of the processing were provided to the participants. However, we did glean that only one along-scan direction was accounted for in the image enhancement algorithms. CIRA/RAMM was asked to provide the GOES-E, GOES-W, and AVHRR imagery for a better comparison example.
My main impression is that most of the processing resulted in sharper images and features (cloud and ground). There were a couple of filters that actually resulted in very smooth patterns or very ‘blurred” patterns which made the improvements somewhat questionable. Feedback was provided to the NOAA SAO in both written and recorded discussion form. This prototype effort is expected to yield a report by the end of the month.
Travelers
M. DeMaria B. Motta J. Knaff D. Hillger
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Nov 3 – 4
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
NWS GOES Sounder/Auto-Estimator Assessment Meeting
November 5, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Brian C. Motta
SUBJECT: GOES Assessment Meetings
COMET, Boulder, CO
November 3 & 4, 1999
On Wednesday and Thursday, I participated in the GOES Assessment meeting which was held in the COMET classroom. The meeting was divided into two parts which focused on the utilization of the GOES sounder data/products by the NWS WFOs and the GOES Autoestimator (of precipitation).
The sounder feedback was generally good except that much of the feedback indicated a lack of training and case studies showing the effective utilization of such data and products. VISIT was asked to assist in coordinating a web page which would bring together case studies from the various NWS offices, NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Hydrometeorology Prediction Center (HPC) which could then be used for training purposes.
The autoestimator assessment presentation by Rod Scofield was excellent. Some significant improvements have been made in the last six months and are reflected in the statistics that have been generated. OM and all of the NWS regions were very supportive of asking that the autoestimator be made operational and that it be distributed via AWIPS. The Office of Hydrology representative (Michael Fortune) stipulated that OH prefers a pure satellite (OK if multi-spectral or multi-satellite) estimate which can then be compared to radar, gage, etc. There was some debate about where the “integration” of various data sources should take place. The training issue again became significant since some of the survey respondents were applying the product to weather events not suited for the autoestimator. VISIT was asked to help assemble training in this area as well. We do have a topic area devoted to observations of the same parameter which would lend itself to participation in both the sounder and autoestimator areas. In addition, since the task of forecasting Quantitative Precipitation (QPE/QPF/QPI) has been assigned to he HPC, they now need to develop training on their forecast preparation/techniques and usage of their guidance for the NWS offices. They are interested in using the VISIT format because the complexity of the task varies by region. I expect future interaction with the HPC SOO in this area as well as collaborating on a winter season case.
Travelers
J. Knaff
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Nov 5
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Sounder Meeting
Travelers
M. DeMaria
Destinations
St. Louis, MO
Funding
NWS
Dates
Nov 8 – 10
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment Meetings
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
November 12, 1999
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment
NWS Forecast Office, St. Louis, MO
November 8-10, 1999
I attended a 2-½ day meeting at the St. Louis WFO as part of the Hurricane Floyd Service Assessment activity. All eight team members met to prepare a draft of the assessment document. An outline was created, and writing tasks were assigned to each team member. The final document is due by Feb. 9, when the results will be presented by the assessment team leader (Steve Thomas, the MIC from the St. Louis WFO) to head of the National Weather Service (Jack Kelly). Enough progress was made on the document, so that no further travel is anticipated in association with the Floyd service assessment.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
R. Zehr
Destinations
New Delhi, India
Funding
US-India Fund
Dates
Nov 12-20
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Science Meeting
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
November 30, 1999 E/RA2
MEMORANDUM FOR: Gregory W. Withee
Assistant Administrator for
Satellite and Information Services
FROM: Raymond M. Zehr
Research Meteorologist, NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report on Indo–US Science Group Meeting
15-17 November 1999
Ashoka Hotel, New Delhi, INDIA
HIGHLIGHTS
o Served as Co- Principal Investigator for Project No.3, Tropical Cyclones
o Met with India colleagues and completed a Final Work Plan on the Tropical Cyclone Project
TEXT
The Meeting was held to finalize Work Plans for the seven Projects chosen for implementation from the 26 proposals originating from the Indo-US Workshop (February 1998). The US participating agencies are NOAA and NASA with four government agencies from India representing both the research and forecasting communities. The Meeting was held in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding signed by India and US in December, 1997, which includes facilitation of satellite data exchange and cooperative research activities. I had been designated to work with co – Principal Investigator, Dr. S.R. Kalsi of the India Meteorological Department. The title of the Project is “Development of operational techniques to predict the intensity and movement of cyclone storms and associated surges.” A final Work Plan included background material from the original proposal, but more importantly a time line for First Year activities and longer-term goals for a 3-year plan were specified.
Case studies of the three 1999 tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean are planned which will be compilations of available satellite data sets, to evaluate additional information from the newer data sets (such as microwave imager and sounder, scatterometer data, satellite wind vectors). The refined analysis of the cyclone life cycles will be compared with the real-time analyses and forecasts. Follow-on, longer term work plans are aimed at objective analyses of combined satellite analyses, and numerical model simulations illustrating the value of the improved satellite data sets for tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.
cc:
Ex1 – M. Glackin
E/IA – B. Smith
E/RA – J. Purdom
E/RA – P. Menzel
E/RA1 – G. Ohring
E/RA2 – F. Holt
E/RA2 – A. Gruber
E/RA2 – H. Drahos
E/RA2 – E. Prins
E/RA2 – M. DeMaria
E/RA3 – L. Dantzler
E/SO – G. Davis
E/SP – H. Wood
E/SP2 – B. Watkins
Travelers
J. Knaff
Destinations
San Jose, Costa Rica
Funding
RMTC
Travelers
B. Connell
Destinations
San Jose, Costa Rica
Funding
RMTC
Travelers
D. Hillger
Destinations
Washington, DC
Funding
GIMPAP
Dates
Dec 6 – 14
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
SOCC/POP Meetings
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/KFIntranet/TripReports/99salsoccbronze.html
Travelers
M. DeMaria B. Motta B. Zajac
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
Dec 10
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Director’s Tea at CIRES
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/KFIntranet/TripReports/99salsoccbronze.html
Travelers
D. Hillger
Destinations
Washington, DC
Funding
BASE
Dates
Dec 13 & 14
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
DOC Bronze Medal Award Ceremony
https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/KFIntranet/TripReports/99salsoccbronze.html
| Visitors | Purpose | Date of Visit | Affiliation | RAMMT Contact |
| Jim Purdom | RAMMT visit | Oct 6 & 7 | ORA, Washington, DC | M. DeMaria |
| Jim Gurka | Discussion of future NWS use of RAMSDIS systems | Oct 13 | NWS, Office of Meteorology | M. DeMaria |
| John Paquette/Tom Renkeven | Specialized RAMSDIS units demo | Oct 21 | Synoptic Analysis Branch | D. Hillger |
| Representatives | Tour of RAMSDIS research area | Oct 21 | NOAA Science Advisory Board | D. Hillger |
| Jeff Hawkins | Geosciences Review/Discussion of tropical cyclone applications of satelltie data with RAMMT/CIRA | Oct 29 | NRL | M. DeMaria |
| Chris Velden | To discuss aspects of upcoming collaborative research efforts, high-density winds using SRSO imagery associated with Hurricane Floyd, and the upcoming USWRP PACJET experiment. | Nov 1 | CIMSS, SSEC University of Wisconsin-Madison | R. Zehr |
| Kevin Schrab | Improvements to RAMMT AWIPS capabilities | Nov 1 | NWS WRHQ | D. Molenar |
| Jim Purdom | RAMMT visit | Nov 1 | ORA, Washingon, DC | M. DeMaria |
| John Ogren | Briefing on Natural Disaster Information Cards | Nov 4 | NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist | J. Weaver |
| Jim Purdom | RAMMT visit | Nov 8 | ORA, Washington, DC | M. DeMaria |
| Chad Johnson | McIDAS class | Nov 8 – 10 | McIDAS Training/SSEC, University of Wisconsin-Madison | D. Molenar |
| Vilma Castro | Planning for December WMO course in Costa Rica. Review of satellite climatology/ new NT-McIDAS system capabilities. | Nov 8 – 12 | RMTC, Costa Rica | B. Connell |
| Anthony Reale | Briefing on status of AMSU products from NOAA-15 | Dec 16 | Forecast Products Development Team/ARAD/NESDIS | M. DeMaria |
| Jim Purdom | DOC Demo discussion RAMMT meetings | Dec 21 | ORA, Washington, DC | M. DeMaria |
HRD and CAMEX 3
Zehr, Watson
Rapid scan imaging requests for hurricane research were coordinated with research aircraft missions of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division (HRD).
RAMM/CSU Northeast Colorado Severe Weather Experiment
Zajac, Weaver, Dostalek
Three relatively insignificant cases of severe weather were observed during 1999 (17 June, 10 August, and 2 September). These cases were reviewed, and found to be not worthy of further study.
Lubbock Dryline Experiment
Weaver, Dostalek
The nonclassical splitting storm case which occurred near Lubbock, TX, on 25 May 1999 has been chosen for further study. This case will be compared and contrasted to a classic splitting thunderstorm. The search for a classic case is currently underway, with the following possible dates: 30 May 1996, 17 May 1996, 26 May 1999, and 10 May 1996. A journal article with Loren Phillips, SOO at Lubbock, will complete the study.
Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) 2000
Zajac, Weaver, Bikos
The RAMMT will support STEPS by providing real-time satellite imagery during the experiment, and access to archived digital satellite data following the study. These data will include Rapid Scan Observations, and possibly Super Rapid Scan Observations. In addition, joint studies of the STEPS data are expected, including research of the forecast utility of cloud-to-ground lightning data in severe weather scenarios.
Web Pages
DeMaria, Phillips, Dostalek, Hillger, Motta, Weaver, Knaff
A suite of Netscape Enterprise Servers (NES) has been acquired from NOAA. The NES will be utilized to implement an Intranet as well as Extranet at the CIRA/RAMM Team site. The project is already underway.
The Team’s web pages were routinely updated as necessary to reflect its current activities and to inform users of newly developed products and/or web-based resources.
A RAMM PACJET web page is under development. This site will feature satellite images and AMSU products developed by the RAMM Team over portions of the West Coast of the United States and East Pacific, specifically, 25N to 55N and 160W to 120W.
Information concerning the likelihood of tropical cyclone genesis in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is now updated daily and available on the World Wide Web. Parameters include a measure of zonal vertical wind shear and instability derived from the NCEP Aviation Model Analysis and GOES water vapor brightness temperatures calculated in a box 8 to 18° N and 35 to 55° W. These parameters are combined into a single index that is positive when environmental conditions are favorable for tropical cyclones to form. For more information see: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp
Several parameters related to the probability for tropical Atlantic hurricane activity have been derived solely from the GOES-8 soundings. Parameters include Lifted Index, 900 hPa – 700 hPa precipitable water, Maximum Potential Intensity (given as minimum eyewall pressure), and two experimental thermodynamic genesis potential products. Preliminary analysis suggests that the mid-level water vapor plays an important role in determining periods of tropical cyclone activity. This work will continue for next year and all products are updated daily and are available at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp
The VISIT web page has been redesigned and updated.
A loop showing 15-min rainfall accumulations and a graph showing the corresponding number of E-911 phone calls for the night of the Fort Collins flood have been updated on J. Weaver’s web presentation on the Fort Collins flood. The new material can be accessed at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu Choose “Flash Flood” from the frames menu, choose Weaver presentation, then go to “Late Evening Rain” for the accumulations loops, or “Runoff and Rain Totals” for the E-911 graphs.
Phillips, Weaver, Zehr, Watson
System Update has been implemented on the Virtual Lab server.
Repairs were made to the virtual lab system after a hard disk failure. The system and data sets are being restored from tape.
Satellite Interpretation Discussion
Grasso
The on-line training and discussion effort known as the “Satellite Interpretation Discussion” continues to be well received by the user community and continues as a regular activity of the RAMMT. T
Tutorials
Phillips, Watson
At the request of the Director of ORA, copies of the Team’s web-based “GOES 3.9 µm Channel” and “Advanced GOES Imagery Applications” tutorials were placed onto CD-ROMs and delivered to contacts in Australia, Germany, Japan, and Kenya. This will allow scientists in those countries to view the modules through their web browsers locally, independent from connections to the Internet.
RAMSDIS
Molenar, Connell, Dostalek, Gosden, Smith, Hillger
Tropical RAMSDIS was used extensively for IR image archiving, product development and evaluation, and for daily hurricane briefings. Sea-surface temperature loops, AMSU Channel 7 images, and Meteosat-5 (at 63E longitude) loops were added. The addition of Meteosat-5 provides optimum global coverage of tropical weather systems with 5 geostationary satellites.
Two NT-McIDAS systems were set up and shipped to Costa Rica and Barbados.
Five 4-km sectors of visible, 3.9, 6.7, and 10.7 micrometer imagery covering northern Central America, the Caribbean, as well as northern, central and southern South America were set up at CIRA and used at the RMTC training in Costa Rica during 6-17 December for daily weather discussions.
A software upgrade was sent out to all of the RAMSDIS field sites. This upgrade will bring the systems into Y2K compliance.
The software running the ingest of satellite data on the GOES Sounder RAMSDIS has been upgraded to be Y2K compliant.
Several application programs along with calibration and navigation modules have been modified on the RAMSDIS-OS/2 system to allow processing of more datasets.
The Sounder RAMSDIS system has been upgraded with the RAMSDIS 7.5 software package.
A trip to five Central American countries was made my Todd Smith in order to evaluate the feasibility of installing RAMSDIS workstations in each country. This is part of the Hurricane Mitch Restoration Project.
Continuing technical support has been supplied to all RAMSDIS field sites including troubleshooting and implementing configuration modifications.
The Satellite Operations Control Center (SOCC) RAMSDIS was upgraded in December with the latest McIDAS and RAMSDIS software. The SOCC RAMSDIS is a specialized version of the standard RAMSDIS developed at RAMMT/CIRA. Basic capabilities of the SOCC RAMSDIS include viewing all 5 GOES channels at full spatial resolution (1 km visible, 4 km IR) for a sector chosen by the user. Image loops for 12 hours of half-hour imagery (the maximum resolution available on the RAMSDIS servers) are available. Sounder images are also available in a 12-hour loop, and all 19 Sounder channels are viewable for the most recent image time. RAMSDIS units are currently running McIDAS 7.5 which is Y2K compliant. Specific improvements to the system included better timing on obtaining Sounder images from the RAMSDIS servers so that images are not clipped. This RAMSDIS unit is used for quality control analysis of data from both the GOES Imager and Sounder.
In December the ‘SAL’ RAMSDIS in the 6th floor lab of the World Weather Building was upgraded with the latest McIDAS and RAMSDIS software. The SAL RAMSDIS is a standard version of RAMSDIS developed at RAMMT/CIRA but with some special image loops. The first loop contains a visible albedo product. The other loop contains a shortwave albedo product which is computed from GOES channels 2 and 4. Two other loops contain imagery for a sector chosen by the user. One loop contains longwave and shortwave IR channel 4, 5 and 2 images and the other loop contains Principal Component Images (PCIs) which are channel sum and difference products generated from the three IR bands. The three components are accompanied by an explanatory graph showing the channels that make up the components. All four components and the graph fit into one 4-panel display that contains imagery for 8 hours of data. The specialized loops are designed to look at volcanic ash and hot spots/fires. A similar floater loop is available on the Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) RAMSDIS. The SAB RAMSDIS was delivered in 1999 but some software upgrades were made to existing software on that system used for volcanic ash and hot spot/fire detection.
The prototype Sounder RAMSDIS at CIRA has been upgraded to McIDAS 7.5 software, making it Y2K compliant. The upgrade involved modifications to most of the software used to manipulate and display GOES Sounder imagery and image products. Imagery from this RAMSDIS can be viewed on RAMSDIS On-line for experimental products on the Web at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/ROLEX.html
In addition, a second computer has been dedicated to collecting and displaying data from the GOES Sounder at CIRA. With two systems, images and image products from both GOES-East and GOES-West can be displayed in real-time loops. Eventually the new GOES-West products will be available for all to see on the experimental version of RAMSDIS Online.
D. Molenar and T. Smith attended the annual McIDAS User’s Group meeting in Madison, Wisconsin on Oct. 4-5. Arrangements were made for a 3-day McIDAS Programmer training schedule at the CIRA. Meetings were also held with representatives of EUMETSAT to discuss use of RAMSDIS software for training purposes. It was agreed that EUMETSAT would further define training requirements, and that RAMSDIS software would be made available if it met the EUMETSAT training needs.
VISIT
Motta, Bikos, Zajac, Weaver, Zehr
Seventy-five NWS offices received VISIT teletraining sessions during this time period. The topics included 7 RSO sessions, 3 on LTO boundaries, and 5 on CONUS CG-lightning. Some changes were made to the RSO session in response to feedback from the evaluations. For the most part feedback has been positive for all the VISIT teletraining sessions. Nine hundred twenty-four certificates of completion have been mailed to date.
The above graph shows the results of evaluation by class participants in all teletraining courses taught April through December 1999. These statistics are used to continuously monitor the effectiveness of the training and the training materials. The graph indicates that the vast majority of participants are very satisfied (yellow and blue bars are the top two categories of agreement) with the material in all categories polled. Click on image to enlarge
Research and development for new tutorials on Winter Snow Storms and on Lake Effect Snow has just begun. The prime case study for the winter snow storms is on an east-coast nor’easter and will consider synoptic and smaller-scale observations, forecasts, and watch/warning decision making. Two NWS offices (Buffalo and Detroit) have expressed an interest in helping with the development of the LES session.
A new, multi-part teletraining course is being designed on the topic of low-level boundaries. Sub-topics addressed will include, for example, LTO boundaries, cold fronts, warm fronts, drylines etc. The introductory session has been reviewed/critiqued in-house, and will be used for VISIT tele-training sessions starting in January.
COMET
Staff
Lectures presented at the COMET Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction (COMAP) series in Boulder CO last quarter were prepared for the World Wide Web.
Community Outreach
Weaver
J. Weaver continues as the NOAA representative on the City of Fort Collins’ Project Impact steering committee. Project Impact is a FEMA-funded effort which provides “seed money” to several cities in each state to develop innovative ideas for disaster mitigation. Weaver’s thrust is aimed at getting FEMA to think of weather information as a potential mitigation tool.
RMTC/WMO
Connell, Hilgendorf, Knaff
Archival of satellite imagery for climatology continues. Imagery for the months of September, October, and November were sent to Costa Rica, while imagery for September was sent to Barbados.
GOES-8 imagery from August 23 – 27, 1999, when Hurricane Emily (then a tropical depression) affected the Windward and Leeward Islands, was sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Barbados for case study.
B. Connell and J. Knaff prepared material for, and presented lectures at, a two-week satellite meteorology training event held at the RMTC in Costa Rica during 6-17 December. The training used RAMSDIS and RAMSDIS online during lectures, labs and weather discussions. There were 34 participants from Central and South American and Caribbean Countries. For more details see the WMO section.
Publications
Fryer
Published:
DeMaria, M., 1999: Contribution to Tropical Cyclone-related NWP products and their guidance. A. Radford (ed.), World Meteorological Organization, 49 pp.
Accepted:
Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.
Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, J.A. Knaff, T.G.G. Kittel, J.L. Eastman, 2000: A comparison of Regional Trends in 1979-1997 depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures. Int. J. Climatol.
Connell, B.H. and K. Gould, 2000: GOES-8 visible cloud frequency composites of the convectively active sea breeze under stratified synoptic flow over the Florida panhandle. 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, S.Q. Kidder, M.D. Goldberg, 2000: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals using AMSU-A data from NOAA-15. 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dependence of dryline formation on soil moisture. Mon Wea. Rev.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: The differentiation between grid spacing and resolution and their application to numerical modeling. B. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: A numerical simulation of dryline sensitivity to soil moisture. Mon. Wea. Rev.
Hillger, D.W. and G.P. Ellrod, 2000: Detection of unusal atmospheric and surface features by employing principal component image transformation of GOES imagery. 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Molenar, D.A., K.J. Schrab, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: RAMSDIS contributions to NOAA satellite data utilization. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Bulletin.
Motta, B.C., A. Mostek, D.E. Bikos, S. Bachmeier, 2000: New integrated sensor training for the National Weather Service in the AWIPS era. 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Weaver, J.F., 2000: Chapter 23: Windstorms associated with extratropical cyclones in Storms. Routledge Limited,R. Pielke, Jr., editor. In press
Weaver, J.F., J.F. Dostalek, B.C. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: Severe thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A satellite training case. National Weather Digest.
Zajac, B.A. and S.A. Rutledge, 2000: Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activity over the contiguous United States from 1995-1997. 3rd Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Submitted:
Bernardet, L.R., L.D. Grasso, J.E. Nachamkin, C.A. Finley, and W.R. Cotton, 2000: Simulating convective events using a high-resolution mesoscale model. Journal of Geophysical Review.
Dostalek, J.F., and T.J. Schmit, 2000: GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection. Weather and Forecasting.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: A brief review of numerically simulated descending and nondescending tornadoes. Weather and Forecasting.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dissipation of a left moving cell in a severe storm envirnoment. Mon. Wea. Rev.
Knaff, J.A., R.M. Zehr, M.D. Goldberg, and S.Q. Kidder, 2000: Temperature structure differences of two similarly appearing cyclone systems derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit. Weather and Forecasting.
Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 2000: How much skill was there in forecasting the great 1997-98 El Nino?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2000: Analysis of 200 mb wind and 1000-200 mb depth-averaged temperature trends for the period 1958-1997. J. Geophysical Research.
Weaver, J.F., E.R. Hilgendorf, L.D. Grasso, K. Pence, 2000: Examples of using satellite and Doppler radar data for nowcasting during severe thunderstorm outbreaks: Focus on training. Weather and Forecasting.
Zajac, B.A. and S. A. Rutledge, 1999: Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the contiguous United States from 1995-1997. Mon. Wea. Rev.
Development of local AWIPS capabilities continues. RAMMT staff are coordinating with COMET and FSL on this development.
A GOES-East, IR channel 4, data set covering the northern Hemisphere has been saved lasting the entire Atlantic tropical storm season. Several other data sets from this tropical season have also been saved.
The latest version of D2D (AWIPS 4.2.4) software has been installed on the RAMM Team real-time ingest system. Upgrade of all RAMM HP’s to D2D 4.2.4 should be completed by the end of the year.
Two Gateway systems have been acquired for the Brazil Fire project, and are now being configured.
Several computers has been configured to test McIDAS software on a Windows NT platform.
Upgrades were made to several RAMMT systems. Upgrades included faster processors and larger hard disk drives.
The FY00 RAMM Team OPTORAs were developed, finalized, and delivered to ORA Headquarters.
The development of ORA computer staff annual performance rating metrics was completed under the leadership of a RAMM Team staff member.
Information was collected and organized for a quarterly report of the Team’s activities that were responsive to the current GOES I-M Product Assurance Plan’s (GIMPAP’s) work requirements.
| Team Member | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| Molenar, D. | Madison, WI | McIDAS User’s Group Meeting | BASE | October 3-5 |
| Smith, T. | Madison, WI | McIDAS User’s Group Meeting | GIMPAP | October 3-5 |
| DeMaria, M. | Islip, NY/Washington, DC/ Miami, FL | Hurricane Floyd Assessment Meetings | NWS | October 4-8 |
| Zajac, B. | Norman, OK | OTB/NSSL Visit | VISIT | October 11-14 |
| Smith, T. | Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras | Hurricane Mitch Recovery Project | USAID | October 11-23 |
| DeMaria, M. | Washington, DC/Raleigh, NC/ Atlanta, GA | USWRP/ Hurricane Floyd Assessment Meetings | GIMPAP NWS | October 18-22 |
| DeMaria, M. | St. Louis, MO | Hurricane Floyd Assessment Meetings | NWS | November 8-10 |
| Zehr, R. | New Delhi, India | Indo-US Science Meeting | BASE US-India Fund | November 12-22 |
| Knaff, J. | San Jose, Costa Rica | RMTC SatMet Training | RMTC | December 6-14 |
| Hillger, D. | Washington, DC | SOCC/POP Meetings Bronze Medal Ceremony | GIMPAP | December 6-14 |
| Connell, B. | San Jose, Costa Rica | RMTC SatMet Training | RMTC | December 6-17 |
AMS: American Meteorological Society
AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
AOML: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
ARAD: Atmospheric Research and Applications Division
AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
COMAP: COMET Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction
COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training
CONUS: Continental U.S.
CSU: Colorado State University
EM: Emergency Manager
FEMA:Federal Emergency Management Agency
FTP: File Transfer Protocol
GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
GRID: Gridded Data (McIDAS file type)
HRD: Hurricane Research Division
IBAMA: Instituto Brasilerio do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis
IR: Infrared
McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Analysis System
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCEP: National Center for Environmental Prediction
NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS: National Weather Service
NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office
OM: Office of Meteorology
OPTORA: Operating Plans and Tasks for the Office of Research and Applications
ORA: Office of Research and Applications
PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
PCGRIDDS: Personal Computer Based Gridded Interactive Display and Diagnostic System
PCI: Principal Component Imagery
POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
POP: Product Oversight Panel
RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team
RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System
RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System
RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center
ROLEX: RAMSDIS Online Experimental
SAB: Satellite Applications Branch
SCAN: System for Convective Analysis and Nowcasting
SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center
SOO: Science Operations Officer
SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation
SSEC: Space Science and Engineering Center (University of Wisconsin)
STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study 2000
USWRP: United States Weather Research Program
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated
VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training
WCM: Warning Coordination Meteorologist
WMO: World Meteorological Organization
WV: Water Vapor
Y2K: Year 2000
