Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Formal reviews of the paper “Examples of nowcasting in central Plains and southeastern United States severe thunderstorm environments using satellite and Doppler radar” by J. Weaver, E, Hilgendorf, L. Grasso, and K. Pence (NWS) were received from Weather and Forecasting. All three reviewers found the paper to be “unfocused.” The authors are now re-doing the paper to concentrate entirely on the 8 April 1998 Birmingham tornado. The central Plains case will be removed entirely, and a great deal more analysis added for the Birmingham event.

Material for a talk titled “A Satellite Perspective of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Comments on Lightning Activity” has been developed and will be presented at the National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 in Norman, OK to be held May 1-3, 2000. The study focuses on synoptic and mesoscale aspects of the tornado outbreak using GOES satellite imagery and cloud-to-ground lightning data. Data were analyzed and prepared for presentation by D. Bikos, J. Weaver, B. Zajac, and B. Motta.

For the Lubbock dryline project, the past quarter has been spent reviewing pertinent journal articles discussing model simulations and observations of severe thunderstorms in preparation for the writing of a journal article on the 25 May 1999 West Texas thunderstorm event. In addition, hard copies of data from the case from the Amarillo, TX WSR-88D were received from Loren Phillips, SOO at Lubbock, TX, who will be collaborating with RAMM Team members on the study.

The paper titled “Severe Thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A Satellite Training Case” by J. Weaver, J. Dostalek, B. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom is in press at National Weather Digest. The final publication date has still not been assigned.

The development of a program to identify rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones is continuing.  The algorithm is coded and is being calibrated using known rapid intensifiers of the Atlantic.   Development will continue during the next quarter.

Thirty-minute interval GOES IR 4 km Mercator remapped images in MCIDAS format from late season 1999 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones were added to the CD-ROM archive.  Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones using GMS (at 140E lon) and Meteosat-5 (at 63E lon) were also added to the data set.  The southern hemisphere data included an intense cyclone in NW Australia and the South Indian Cyclone responsible for large loss of life and property in Madagascar and Mozambique.  Digital IR intensity estimates were computed and saved for those cases.

The RAMM Tropical Cyclone IR archive now contains approximately 28,000 images with 114 tropical cyclones on 17 CDs.  Phase 2 of the project is planned for the next several months.  That work includes quality control, data file archiving, and inclusion of “Best Track” data.  CIRA student hourly support is being utilized for this work.  A conference paper summarizing the project has been completed and will be presented at the AMS Hurricane Conference, May 29-June2, in Fort Lauderdale, FL.  The paper gives brief descriptions of research and product development using the IR Archive that is both underway and planned for the future.

Work has begun to examine the wind fields created from SRSO imagery over Hurricane Floyd using a modified version of the CIMSS high-density wind code (see Fig. 1).  These wind data represent an unprecedented look at the evolution of the upper-level wind field inside the core region of a tropical cyclone over a time period of  eight days.  This collaborative research with C. Velden of CIMSS will attempt to answer several questions including:  Do wind field changes lead intensity change?  How does convection relate to upper level wind accelerations?  How are wind field changes related to other structural changes? Preliminary results have been documented in a paper to be presented at the AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  In addition to the SRSO, preliminary analyses of  Hurricane Floyd are partially completed using GOES IR imagery to assess intensity change and environmental vertical wind shear influences.  RAMM Tropical Applications programs have been completed for Floyd’s entire life cycle.
 
 

Documentation has begun on a subclass of tropical cyclones which are symmetric with little or no rainband structure, have large eyes and maintain intensities of approximately 85% of that which would be expected given the sea surface temperature conditions (see Fig 2).  This work includes collaboration with Jim Kossin  of CSU and Vince Larson of CIRA.
 
 

Minor revisions were completed for a Weather and Forecasting note entitled “An Example of Temperature Structure Differences in Two Cyclone Systems Derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit,” by J. Knaff, R. Zehr, M. Goldberg (ORA/CRAD), and S.  Kidder.   The note, which shows the temperature structure differences between a subtropical cyclone and a weak tropical cyclone has been accepted and will appear in the Weather and Forecasting within the next six months.  Figure 3 shows the AMSU temperatures for these two cyclones.
 

A Picture of the Month manuscript entitled “A mesoscale low-level thunderstorm outflow boundary associated with Hurricane Luis” by John Knaff and John Weaver was accepted for publication in Monthly Weather Review.

A paper discussing deep convective oscillations in tropical cyclones by J. Knaff and R. Zehr has been written, internally reviewed, and is being prepared for submission to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

A small project involving the investigation of specific characteristics of the intensification periods for the 20 intense (Category 3 or higher) Atlantic hurricanes during 1995-1999 has been completed.  Best Track data and aircraft center fix observations were used to document onset of rapid intensification and intensification rates.  The hurricanes were ranked according to intensification rate, maximum wind, and minimum sea-level pressure.  The RAMM IR Tropical Cyclone archive was then used to identify the time of the first definite, persistent eye and relationships to intensification rates.  In addition, image characteristics were assessed according to the time of onset of rapid intensification, in comparison to the other hurricanes.  RAMM Tropical Applications programs were also run on all 20 cases to obtain objective IR intensity estimates and IR cloud area histogram information.

Preparation for the upcoming Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment (PACJET), to be held during the winter season 2000/2001, continues.  Software development/execution for the analysis and display of AMSU derived wind fields is a high priority.  In particular, validation statistics have been computed for 41 days during January-March 2000, which compare the AMSU wind fields to those measured by radiosonde over Bermuda.  Bermuda was chosen as the marine environment validation site, as opposed to a U.S. West Coast station, because NOAA-15 flies over the island at approximately 1200 UTC.  In addition, Bermuda is not too far equatorward to be outside of the area governed by midlatitude dynamics.  The increase in the root mean square error of the wind direction at the lower levels is hypothesized to be an effect of friction, which is not taken into account by the AMSU wind retrieval routine.  The average root mean square error in wind speed (see Fig. 4) is about 6 ms-1, which is comparable to, or slightly better than, the respective root mean square errors in wind speed from the GOES infrared or water vapor imagery high density winds of 6 ms-1 and 7 ms-1.  One advantage of the AMSU technique is its ability to retrieve a wind field throughout the depth of the atmosphere, even in some cloudy conditions; the GOES cloud tracked winds can only use the highest cloud elements as tracers.
 

The natural disaster response cards for dispatchers are being distributed nationwide.  These cards are based on the NOAA/FEMA/ARC safety booklets, but were reviewed by NWS staff, scientists, emergency managers, as well as FEMA and Red Cross personnel before issuance. The cards are now on the Web, and reviews from emergency managers around the country continue to be positive.   The site has had nearly 1,200 ‘hits,’ since the counter was reset in mid-February. Cards may be viewed at: http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/c_safety/oem/overview_ndic.htm

The software programs developed by Stan Kidder and Don Hillger to compute the shortwave infrared albedo and day/night albedo have been upgraded to work on either 1-byte or 2-byte GOES data. The shortwave albedo program uses GOES channels 2 (3.9 um) and 4 (10.7 um) to compute the surface or cloud albedo at 3.9 um. This program is a strong contender to the fog product as it preferentially shows low-level water clouds. The software corrects for solar zenith angle and uses the longwave IR channel to fill in over colder cloud tops. The day/night albedo program uses GOES channels 1 (0.7 um), 2 (3.9 um), and 4 (10.7 um) to compute the surface or cloud albedo day or night. During the day the program computes the zenith-angle-corrected albedo as if the sun were directly overhead. This process greatly enhances visible images near sunrise and sunset. In night portions of the images (when the solar zenith angle is zero or negative) the program substitutes the shortwave (3.9 um) albedo for darkness, creating a full day/night sequence when looped. The shortwave albedo at night is an indication of surface emittance variations and can be used to preferentially view water clouds in a manner similar to the fog product. The updated programs are being used routinely at CIRA on both 1-byte and 2-byte data and were requested by Kevin Schrab at NWS Western Region headquarters for testing and possible implementation on AWIPS.

The programs for analysis of pixel-to-pixel noise and detector-to-detector striping in GOES images have been updated and the executables sent to the Satellite Operations Control Center (SOCC) RAMSDIS via FTP. For easy use these programs are selectable from a menu on the RAMSDIS. Programs to generate histograms and scatter plots of image data are also available to RAMSDIS users. SOCC was notified of the availability of the new programs that were missing since the system underwent a major upgrade in December.

Radar and satellite data are being used to study storm splitting and convective organization.  Both studies are intended to lead to publications.

The effect of a reduction in bit depth (from 2-byte to 1-byte data) for the GOES Sounder was assessed quantitatively using a sample of 2-byte data and the same data reduced to 1-byte precision.  For some Sounder channels there was no significant increase in noise.  For those channels the noise level is larger than the limiting precision allowed by 1-byte digitization.  However, for several other channels the increase in noise was 4% or more as estimated using structure analysis.  The most notably affected Sounder channel is the lowest-level water vapor channel (channel-10) with an increase in noise of 12% when the noise levels are compared in temperature units.  A table with the results for all Sounder channels accompanies this item.  Further information on this study can be found on the RAMMT Website at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/cal_val/noisesnd.htm   The implications of reduced-bit depth are important should Sounder data become routinely available on a future build of AWIPS.  A similar study of the effect of bit depth on noise in the GOES Imager data has been completed for some time and is also available on the RAMMT Website at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/cal_val/noisebit.htm

The foundation of a precipitation algorithm that uses surface observations and satellite data is in an experimental phase.  Before the algorithm can be improved, more understanding of the atmospheric variables that affect precipitation must be studied.  Current activities include sensitivity testing of vertical wind shear and relative humidity using the RAMS model.

Development of the  new tutorial on Lake Effect Snow has begun.  Two NWS offices (Buffalo and Detroit) have expressed an interest in helping with the development of the LES session.

Processing of the US climatologies continued on schedule. These included large sector composites for December 1999, January and February 2000, and wind regime composites for November 1999, January and February 2000.  December 1999 has been delayed due to problems with the wind data collection. Combined products covering 1998 and 1999 for GOES channels 1 and 4 were processed for November 1999.  Our first set of  three year combined products (1998-2000) were completed for January.

The cloud cover percentage climatologies for Wakefield, VA were combined for the summer months of June, July and August for 1998 and 1999 (see Figures 5 and 6). This was done for each daylight hour and all wind regimes with data.
 
 

A study is  underway to compare cloud  frequency results from imagery collected and processed under the CONUS project (4 km resolution) with that processed under the Tallahassee Sea Breeze project (1 km resolution).  Imagery overlaps for 2 years: 1998 and 1999.  (See NWS research interaction for an update of the Tallahassee Summer Sea breeze satellite cloud frequency composites project.)

Two presentations were made at the Fifth WMO Winds Workshop in Australia in March on geometric cloud analysis.  The first summarized the accomplishments of G. Campbell’s visit to EUMETSAT last year.  The work demonstrated that stereo heights can be derived from pairs of Meteosat images at 0 and 63 longitude.  It was also shown that a combination of Meteosat and AVHRR could be used to derive cloud motion and height away from the overlap areas of geosynchronous satellites.   The first paper is described below.

Garrett Campbell and Kenneth Holmlund, 2000:  Geometric Cloud Heights from METEOSAT and AVHRR.

The second presentation discussed estimation of cloud motion and cloud height from polar orbiting satellites alone.  In order to estimate geometric height, a multiple view satellite like POLDER on ADEOS I/ADEOS II or MISR on TERRA is required.  Using a combination of POLDER and AVHRR data over northern Alaska we were able to measure the cloud height and motion at 70 North.  The second paper is described below.

G. Garrett Campbell and Francois-Marie Breon, 2000:  Polar Orbiter Stereo Heights and Cloud Motions.

One important outcome of that meeting resulted from discussions with Chris Velden (CIMSS) about their wind software.  That software is being rewritten in a portable form to be available at the end of summer 2000.  We will add a module to estimate geometric height using the standard cloud selection and tracking software.  This will make the Asynchronous Stereo techniques more widely usable.

B. Motta obtained MM5 model forecasts from the USAF Air Force Weather Agency for use in training related to winter storms.  The Air Force version contains LAPS (and therefore satellite) input.

A journal article entitled “How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997-1998 El Nino?” by C. Landsea of HRD and J. Knaff was accepted buy the B. Amer. Meteor. Soc. following minor revisions.  The paper discusses the skill of several El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast schemes during the very strong 1997 – 1998 El Nino event.  Skill is determined by comparing the forecasts with those made using the ENSO Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) model discussed in Knaff and Landsea 1997.

Members of various federal agencies are contributing materials to, and will provide reviews of, the second VISIT teletraining session on using lightning observations.  This session will discuss lightning physics, detection systems, electrification, and lightning applications in forecasting.  Materials have been contributed by National Severe Storms Laboratory, National Aeronautic and Space Administration, Lincoln Laboratory, CSU/Atmos, and New Mexico Tech.  Meteorologists from these organizations and from NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) have volunteered to review the session prior to its general release.

L. Grasso continues to collaborate with doctoral students on the numerical simulations of convective storms.

A conference paper by J. Weaver and N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University) was accepted for presentation at the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology entitled “Microscale rainfall variations as measured by a local volunteer network.”  The paper reports on results from the first two years of data collection by citizen-participants in a city-wide, volunteer precipitation measuring mesonetwork.

B. Motta obtained MM5 model forecasts from Penn State University for the winter storm case (see above under National Labs).  The Penn State version does not use LAPS input.

Objective satellite hurricane intensity estimates and McIDAS training were provided for Dr. William Gray’s project for work they are doing with the new aircraft GPS dropsonde data.  Their main interest is location of the observations with respect to satellite observed clouds, convection, and intensity trends.

B. Motta obtained permission from Dr. Paul Chang to provide NWS offices with the Near-real-time QuickScat imagery website.

D. Hillger reviewed two proposals from CIMSS and forwarded the review forms to NESDIS Headquarters.

Dr. Kevin Schrab from NWS Western Region Headquarters, visited the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) on February 9-11.  Dr. Schrab provided a demonstration on utilization of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) in a forecast environment.  He also added Western Region satellite products to the CIRA pseudo AWIPS ingest, and corrected AWIPS utilization of the CIRA ground station satellite data.  The CIRA AWIPS can now display the NOAAPORT data, local radar data, and satellite imagery.

D. Bikos is collaborating with 3 NWS offices in the preparation of a lake-effect snow training session. Data collection has been the main focus during this quarter. The conversion of satellite data from McIDAS to AWIPS has been accomplished with the assistance of Dr. Kevin Schrab from NWS Western Region Headquarters.

J. Weaver and J. Dostalek are continuing their work with Loren Phillips, SOO at Lubbock, TX, on the 25 May 1999 thunderstorm case.  See Lubbock Dryline Experiment.

Twenty-seven VISIT teletraining sessions, covering 8 different topics, were presented this quarter.  Out of a total of 102 participants, 94 were NWS forecast offices.

Interaction with Ken Gould (NWS Tallahassee) continues on the Summer Sea Breeze Satellite Cloud frequency project.  Results from the Visible cloud frequency analysis were written up and presented at the AMS 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography in Long Beach, California in January, 2000.  The title for the paper and poster was ‘GOES-8 Digital Cloud Frequency Composites of the Convectively Active Sea Breeze Under Stratified Synoptic Flow Over the Florida Panhandle’ by Bernadette Connell, CIRA, and Ken Gould , NWS Tallahassee.

Quality-checked GOES-8 visible, 3.9 um and 10.7 um imagery for June, July, and August 1996-1999 were sent to Ken Gould, as part of the cooperative satellite climatology  effort focused on the summer sea breeze.  Visible and 10.7 um cloud frequency image composites were made of selected days corresponding to various wind regimes.  The data set also allows for looking at traditional monthly composites (See Figures 7 and 8)
 
 

Analysis continues with the determination of cloud frequency from 10.7  m temperature threshold technique (on 4 km imagery).  These results are being compared with the visible cloud frequency results (1 km imagery).   A journal article describing these results is being prepared.

B. Motta provided Andy Edman with a summary and comments (from NWS offices) about Internet connectivity during VISIT teletraining sessions.  This input will help the NWS determine future requirements for network connectivity between NWS offices, regions, training centers, and other related sites.

Interaction with the Boston office on their use of satellite imagery in AWIPS for forecasting winter storms and the advantages of RSO during periods of expected explosive cyclogenesis has led to a better understanding of what training needs to be done in these areas.

B. Motta provided M. DeMaria a summary map of  NWS offices, regions, training centers, and other related sites which have participated in VISIT training.  The summary map was used in a management meeting of the NESDIS Office of Research and Applications.

The RAMMT coordinated with NWS Warning and Forecast Offices (WFOs) on the use of GOES-RSO imagery during several winter weather events.  The lake effect snows that occurred near the Great Lakes prompted several RSOs without CIRA involvement.  RAMMT also made efforts to coordinate RSOs for an expected major winter storm in which explosive cyclogenesis was expected and forecast days ahead of time.  RSO was urged based on expressed uncertainties in the timing of development and/or deepening of the cyclone and problems with predicting the actual track of the cyclone center/precipitation shield.  NWS WFO Boston/Taunton did request RSO, but the RSO imaging was interrupted for Ecuadoran volcano monitoring and satellite wind retrievals.  This was a  disappointment, given that this was the first time Boston had been convinced to experiment with RSO during such an event.

The integrated sensor training working group met at the National Weather Service Operational Support Facility Operations Training Branch in Norman Oklahoma. The status of the training program and the Professional Development Series (PDS) was presented and discussed.  Progress with the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration and Training contributions to the Integrated Sensor Training PDS remains very good. There were some discussions about plans for 2000 and 2001 presented to the group.

B. Motta attended the NWS Distance Learning Working Group (DLWG) in Norman, OK.  There is substantial consolidation of training programs within the NWS that will be implemented in the next few months.  The NWS regional, local, and training center needs were discussed in several areas. Concerns were noted in the future Internet/Intranet infrastructure capabilities, the software available for training, and the design of the training offerings and metrics.  About half of the discussion centered on assessment of the effectiveness (knowledge gained, appropriate application(s), and retention of new information) of current distance training efforts. An important concept that arose at this meeting is to offer training structured in “chunks” as courses so that the training efforts can be more easily anticipated, scheduled, and tracked.  B. Meisner of NWS Southern Region Headquarters suggested assembling courses that have a specific starting and ending date and offer the students opportunities to interact with subject matter experts/instructors for questions (similar to a university distance learning course).

A list of possible extensions to the set of satellite data and products planned for future versions of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) was provided to J. Gurka, of the NWS Office of Meteorology. The input was for planning activities related to future bandwidth requirements for AWIPS.

B. Motta provided J. Gurka (of the NWS Office of Meteorology) slides and information regarding the use of GOES Rapid Scan Operations imagery by the NWS Warning and Forecast Offices for possible use in a briefing by the NWS Director.

Starting in mid-January 2000, all NWS offices with AWIPS began receiving real-time GOES RSO notifications under AWIPS headers NCFADANCF and NCFADMNCF.  Those using standard NOAAPORT data can get the messages using WMO headers  NOUS71 KNCF and NOUS72 KNCF.

GOES-8   imagery for December 1999 through February, 2000 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Costa Rica.  This is one project of the cooperative efforts between CIRA and the RMTC.  The archives started in December 1996 and are being used for cloud frequency studies during the rainy and dry seasons.  The archives are also being used as a training tool for student projects such as tracking the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

GOES-8 imagery from October 1999 through February 2000 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Barbados to develop satellite climatology composites for the region.  A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold (273K) of 10.7 um imagery for October, November and December of 1998 and 1999 is shown in Figure 9.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.
 
 

Mr. João Antonio Raposo Pereira, Fire Monitoring Coordinator for the Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renivaveis (IBAMA), visited the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) to review Brazil Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System (RAMSDIS) configuration and to discuss progress on CIRA’s satellite fire detection work.  Two RAMSDIS workstations with special fire detection algorithms will be shipped to IBAMA in March, 2000.  H. Gosden and E. Hilgendorf will visit IBAMA in May to provide additional training.

Collaborative work continues with the Indo-US Tropical Cyclone Project.  Progress reports and data exchange continues with the Indian scientists via intermittent e-mail and Internet capabilities.  Objective IR intensity estimates using Meteosat-5 images have been completed for the three North Indian Cyclones being investigated.  Additional data sets have been extracted from the CIRA archive.

G. Campbell worked with K. Holmlund (EUMETSAT) and F.  Breon from (CEA/DSM/LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France) on papers presented at the Fifth WMO Winds Workshop in Australia (see Winds and Cloud Heights Below)

Two presentations were made at the Fifth WMO Winds Workshop in Australia in March on geometric cloud analysis.  The first summarized the accomplishments of G. Campbell’s visit to EUMETSAT last year.  The work demonstrated that stereo heights can be derived from pairs of Meteosat images at 0 and 63 longitude.  It was also shown that a combination of Meteosat and AVHRR could be used to derive cloud motion and height away from the overlap areas of geosynchronous satellites.   The first paper is described below.

Garrett Campbell and Kenneth Holmlund, 2000:  Geometric Cloud Heights from METEOSAT and AVHRR.

The second presentation discussed estimation of cloud motion and cloud height from polar orbiting satellites alone.  In order to estimate geometric height, a multiple view satellite like POLDER on ADEOS I/ADEOS II or MISR on TERRA is required.  Using a combination of POLDER and AVHRR data over northern Alaska we were able to measure the cloud height and motion at 70 North.  The second paper is described below.

G. Garrett Campbell and Francois-Marie Breon, 2000:  Polar Orbiter Stereo Heights and Cloud Motions.

One important outcome of that meeting resulted from discussions with Chris Velden (CIMSS) about their wind software.  That software is being rewritten in a portable form to be available at the end of summer 2000.  We will add a module to estimate geometric height using the standard cloud selection and tracking software.  This will make the Asynchronous Stereo techniques more widely usable.

To Visitors

Meetings/Conferences:
 

Visitors:
 

M. DeMaria and R. Zehr are coordinating with HRD to upgrade their RAMSDIS system for the 2000 hurricane season.

As stated in the last quarterly report, the RAMMT will support STEPS by providing real-time and archived GOES satellite imagery, including imagery taken during Rapid Scan Observations.  Real-time satellite loops will be available over the Internet using RAMDIS On-Line (ROL) and VISITview.  Both ROL and VISITview allow satellite imagery to be animated and viewed frame-by-frame.  VISITview has the added benefit of allowing multiple users to view the same imagery from remote locations, point to features using a cursor, draw/annotate on the imagery, and even discuss the imagery using a conference phone call.  This capability should improve the forecasting process shared between research and operational meteorologists.

In addition to providing satellite data, the RAMMT is collaborating with NWS Goodland (GLD), NOAA/Techniques Development Laboratory, and the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University in a study of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and severe weather.  Previous studies suggest that storms dominated by positive polarity CG lightning usually produce large hail, and sometimes tornadoes.  SCAN 2.0 from TDL will access CG lightning activity within AWIPS, and a comprehensive spotter network organized by GLD will document severe weather.  Data analysis will be performed primarily at RAMMT and at CSU/Atmos.

Development of local AWIPS capabilities continues.  RAMMT staff are coordinating with COMET and FSL on this development.

The two VISIT HP systems were hacked during February.  The systems in question are vulnerable due to holes in the LDM software used to ingest the AWIPS data. Both systems have been secured with a clean operating system installation and additional access restriction software has been added to all RAMM HP’s.

A GOES-East, IR channel 4, data set covering the northern Hemisphere has been saved lasting the entire Atlantic tropical storm season (see Tropical Cyclones for more details).  Several other data sets from this tropical season have also been saved.

Seven Pentium 90 MHz systems were upgraded with Kingston 233 MHz Turbo chips.  Four more will be ordered to complete the upgrade of all 90 MHz systems.

Eight Pentium 90 MHz systems will be upgraded with 128 MB of memory.  These systems will be configured for the RMTC project and will be deployed to other countries.

B. Connell, T. Smith and D. Molenar met with Tom Yoksas of Unidata to demo Unidata’s version of Man computer Interactive Data Analysis System for Unix (McIDAS-X) using the Linux operating system and to explore utilization of Linux McIDAS-X as a future PC RAMSDIS platform.  A tentative agreement was reached on a project to create a complete Linux McIDAS-X package that can be used in the expanding WMO Training project.  The package will include Unidata McIDAS-X plus Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team satellite ingest, display and applications.

The FY00 RAMM Team OPTORAs were developed, finalized, and delivered to ORA Headquarters.

The development of ORA computer staff annual performance rating metrics was completed under the leadership of a RAMM Team staff member.

Information was collected and organized for a quarterly report of the Team’s activities that were responsive to the current GOES I-M Product Assurance Plan’s (GIMPAP’s) work requirements.

D. Hillger reviewed two proposals from CIMSS and forwarded the review forms to NESDIS Headquarters.

A  review of  recent accomplishments and future plans of the RAMM Team was presented March 7, with contributions from all staff members, to the director and deputy director of the NESDIS Office of Research and Applications.

M. DeMaria  represented the RAMM Team at a NESDIS/ORA meeting of division and team leaders March 22 and 23 .

Annual performance review meetings were held with CIRA RAMM Team Staff.

The 1999 Interagency Working Group on U.S. Government Sponsored International Exchanges and Training Report on Exchanges and Training Activities documenting RAMM international training activities has been completed.

Funding for CIRA network upgrades from the NOAA High Performance Computing Committee was approved.

AMS:  American Meteorological Society

AMSU:  Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

ARAD:  Atmospheric Research and Applications Division

AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

CG: Cloud to Ground

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

CONUS: Continental U.S.

CRAD:  Climate Research and Applications Division

CSU:  Colorado State University

DLWG:  Distance Learning Working Group

ENSO: El Nino/Southern Oscillation

EUMETSAT:  European Meteorological Satellite

FEMA:Federal Emergency Management Agency

FTP: File Transfer Protocol

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan

GMS: Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (Japan)

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

HRD:  Hurricane Research Division

IBAMA: Instituto Brasilerio do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis

IR: Infrared

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System

LES: Lake Effect Snow

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

NASA:  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

NHC: National Hurricane Center

NOAA:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWS: National Weather Service

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

OM:  Office of Meteorology

OPTORA:  Operating Plans and Tasks for the Office of Research and Applications

ORA:  Office of Research and Applications

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

PCI:  Principal Component Imagery

PDS: Prfessional Development Series

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

POP: Product Oversight Panel

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

RAMS:  Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

ROL: RAMSDIS Online

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

SCAN:  System for Convective Analysis and Nowcasting

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

SOO: Science Operations Officer

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

UTC:  Universal Time Coordinated

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

WMO: World Meteorological Organization

WV:  Water Vapor

A Web server, Netscape Enterprise Server version 3.6, has been installed at RAMM for its Intranet use.  An experimental Intranet has been implemented at RAMM for the “Weekly Activities” input for all of NESDIS/ORA.  The test page is getting a good review, and there is a plan to implement this system in DC. The newer version of Netscape Enterprise Server will be examined in the future for possible server improvement.  J. Dostalek assisted Roger Phillips in creating the Web page containing virtual laboratory case study entitled ‘24-26 Jan. 2000-“Surprise” East Coast Winter Storm.’

The RAMSDIS Online (ROL) Web page for monitoring fires in Florida has been upgraded to include new or revised fire detection products.  Positive feedback was received from the Florida Department of Emergency Management (FDEM) during a test of the new products, so the former Florida Fire ROL page was replaced with the updated version (see http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/flfire.html).  New products include the day/night shortwave albedo and a component image product which shows hot spots.  The revised product is the day/night visible/shortwave albedo replacing the visible day-only imagery.  The reflectivity product remains from the old version of the page.  Explanations of all products and their basic interpretation for fire detection are available through links on the page.  Examples of each of the four products are shown in Figure 10 for a March 15th case that was used by the FDEM to detect a 125 acre fire in Citrus County near the central Florida west coast.
 

Figure 10 a-d:   Examples of each of the four fire image products;  (a) day/night albedo, (b) reflectivity, (c) shortwave albedo, and (d) PCI-2 for a March 15th case that were used to detect a 125 acre fire in Citrus County near the central
Florida west coast.

The GOES FAQ (frequently asked questions) was updated to include new questions and revise answers to some old questions.  The GOES FAQ can be found at:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/goesfaq.asp

A System Update has been implemented on the Virtual Lab server.

Repairs were made to the virtual lab system after a hard disk failure.  The system and data sets are being restored from tape.

Another case has been added to the RAMM Team’s Virtual Lab.  The dataset consists of 550 images covering the recent East Coast “Surprise” Winter Storm of 24-26 January 2000.  This collection of McIDAS-formatted GOES Imager and Sounder imagery is available for download via FTP by anyone interested (and McIDAS-compatible) in reviewing and learning from them.  The Lab’s homepage can be viewed at  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/vlab/virlabhp.htm Due to hardware problems on the Virtual Lab’s server, we no longer retain the datasets covering the landfall of Hurricane Danny on 19 July 1997 or the Alabama tornado outbreak of early April 1998.  After these changes, eight virtual lab cases are now available.

The following Satellite Interpretation Discussion pages were created this quarter:

“Analysis of the GOES Visible Imagery from the 23 December 1999 Lake-Effect Snow Event,” January 10, by Dan Bikos

“GOES Visible Imagery: Sensor Degradation over Time,” February 9, by Bard Zajac

“Detection of fog using GOES 10 imagery,” March 8, by Eric Hilgendorf

“Spiral moisture patterns of cyclones,” March 20, by Eric Hilgendorf

An effort is underway to reconfigure returned NWS RAMSDIS systems for use in WMO offices in Nairobi, Kenya,  Naimey, Niger Republic, Tokyo, Japan, Melbourne, Australia, and Darmstatd, Germany.  The systems will be used in conjunction with existing systems in Beijing, China, Geneva, Switzerland, and Reading, England as the basis for development and sharing of standard satellite applications training and tools.

Two RAMSDIS systems have been procured for deployment to Brazil for the Brazil Fires Project.  There have  been major design changes in the RAMSDIS configuration to meet the needs of the Brazilian scientists.  The system is scheduled to be completed and deployed my mid-April.

A new version of Tropical RAMSDIS has been designed with improvements in global coverage of the tropics with visible and water vapor imagery.  Meteosat-5 (at 63 degrees East Longitude) data ingest has been added.  A new motion relative IR average image for hurricanes has been added.  The coding is to begin shortly using McIDAS 7.5 and a P III 600 computer.  The system will have 350 frame capability with access to data from NESDIS and CIRA servers, including high density satellite winds (from CIMSS), scatterometer winds, and Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data.  It will also be implemented as the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) RAMSDIS, with modifications following their evaluation.

The RAMSDIS Online experimental products web site now includes Sounder data from both GOES-East and GOES-West.  Also available are AMSU data and some GOES combined-channel products.  See: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.html

Twenty-seven VISIT teletraining sessions, covering eight different topics, have been offered this quarter. The session on detecting boundaries was launched in January and critiqued further by Bikos, Weaver and Motta in March in response to evaluations from NWS offices.  The course on Natural Disaster Information Cards (led by Weaver) also came out this quarter and has received positive reviews. The course on Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products (led by Zehr) has been received very well by NWS offices as well as other centers that have participated in the session. A new VISIT session on diagnosing mesoscale ascent (led by S. Bachmeier of CIMSS) was released in February.

A  new training session called “Natural Disaster Information Cards (NDIC)” addresses weather-related emergency advice given by call centers (police, fire, 911, etc.). The session is designed primarily for National Weather Service Warning Coordination Meteorologists and the emergency managers in their county warning areas.   Covered topics include blizzards, floods, tornadoes, hail, and lightning.

A new training session called “Diagnosis of Mesoscale Elevated Ascent” was reviewed internally in a beta-test hosted by the University of Wisconsin/NESDIS Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). This training session involves using the satellite and model data together to diagnose a heavy snow event with multiple data sets.

A new training session called “Detecting Boundaries Using AWIPS” was reviewed internally in a third beta-test hosted by the National Weather Service/Operational Support Facility/Operations Training Branch. Motta/Weaver also contributed some example imagery for this training session.

Web versions of some of these sessions may be visited at the following addresses:

Rapid Scan Operations  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asphttp://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

An outline was completed for a new VISIT training session on Subtropical Cyclones.  This was in response to  requests from NWS Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch.  Training material contributed by Jack Beven of  TPC will comprise a portion of the training session.  Target date for completion is mid-April 2000.

Modifications to the VISITview software were tested to ensure that the software loads loops in a more robust manner.  The status of the client/server software was also tested so that instructors understand the various combinations of circumstances which can be detected by the software.

J. Weaver continues as the NOAA representative on the City of Fort Collins’ Project Impact steering committee.  Project Impact is a FEMA-funded effort which provides “seed money” to several cities in each state to develop innovative ideas for disaster mitigation.  His goal is to get FEMA to think of weather  information as a potential mitigation tool.  Part of this effort includes the Natural Disaster Information Card series (see VISIT)

J. Weaver provided counseling and guidance for a Colorado State University freshman photojournalism class that produced a documentary on the Fort Collins Flood of 28 July 1997. Weaver presented two lectures on the meteorology and hydrology of the flood, conducted two weekend tours of areas affected by the flood, helped set up interviews with several victims, assisted in quality control of the final script, and was one of the principle interviewees in the final video.

Development of satellite climatology/composites continues with both Barbados and Costa Rica.  See the International Activities section under RESEARCH (Outside Interaction) for more information.

Two McIDAS/NT systems are being configured for the RMTC project.  One is a NT workstation which will be testing the ingest and other RAMSDIS functions.  It is being tested for future deployment in Central/South America and Caribbean countries in connection with the RMTC project.  The other system is currently being setup as a NT server for RAMSDIS Online products, with the future intent on serving the actual digital data to these countries.

In support of the Brazil Fire Project (IBAMA – Instituto Brasilerio do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis), work is underway to fine tune an algorithm that detects fires and determines the period over which the fire has been burning.   Two RAMSDIS systems will be delivered to Brazil to run this algorithm.  After the hardware arrives in Brazil, Hilgendorf and Gosden will travel to Brazil to install the hardware and instruct the users on how to apply the fire algorithm. The activity is planned for May or June 2000.

Published:

Connell, B.H. and K. Gould, 2000: GOES-8 visible cloud frequency composites of the convectively active sea breeze under stratified synoptic flow over the Florida panhandle.  10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.  14-18  January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 438-441.

DeMaria, M., 2000: Evolution of Hurricane Forecasting.  54th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 14-17 February, Houston, TX, NOAA/OFCM, A132-A137.

DeMaria, M., B.H. Connell, J.A. Knaff, R.M. Zehr, 2000: Improvements in tropical cyclone genesis and intensity forecasts using GOES imager and sounder data.  54th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 14-17 February, Houston, TX, NOAA/OFCM, A98-A103.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, S.Q. Kidder, M.D. Goldberg, 2000: Tropical cyclone wind retrievals using AMSU-A data from NOAA-15.  10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 149-152.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: The differentiation between grid spacing and resolution and their application to numerical modeling.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 81:3, 579-580.

Hillger, D.W. and G.P. Ellrod, 2000:  Detection of unusual atmospheric and surface features by employing principal component image transformation of GOES imagery.  10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.  14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 461-464.

Kidder, S.Q., M.D. Goldberg, R.M. Zehr, M. DeMaria, J.F.W. Purdom, C.S. Velden, N.C. Grody,  S.J. Kusselson, 2000:
Tropical Cyclone Analysis using AMSU Data, 10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.  14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 185-188.

Knaff, J.A. M. DeMaria, J.L. DeMuth, 2000: Tropical cyclone forecast products derived from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. 54th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 14-17 February, Houston, TX, NOAA/OFCM, A104-A109.

Motta, B.C., A. Mostek, D.E. Bikos, S. Bachmeier, 2000:  New integrated sensor training for the National Weather Service in the AWIPS era.  10th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.  14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 32-35.

Weaver, J.F., 2000:  Windstorms associated with extratropical cyclones.  Chapter 23, Vol. I in  the book Storms, Pielke, R.A., Jr., and Pielke, R.A., Sr., (eds.), Routledge Press, London and New York.  ISBN 0-414-17239-X (Two volume set), ISBN-0-415-212863 (Vol. I), 449-460.

Zajac, B.A. and S.A. Rutledge, 2000:  Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activity over the contiguous United States from 1995-1997.  3rd Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology.  14-18 January, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 37-40.

Accepted:

Bernardet, L.R., L.D. Grasso, J.E. Nachamkin, C.A. Finley, and W.R. Cotton, 2000: Simulating convective events using a high-resolution mesoscale model.  J. Geophysical Research, In press.

Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000:  Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.

Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, J.A. Knaff, T.G.G. Kittel, J.L. Eastman, 2000: A comparison of Regional Trends in 1979-1997 depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures.  Int. J. Climatol.

Cione, J.J., J. Kaplan, M. DeMaria, and P. Molina, 2000: SST timeseries in the hurricane environment: Compairson with surface ocean temperatures used by the statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS).  24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

DeMaria, M., R.M. Zehr, S. Velden, and F.M. Horsfall, 2000:  Further improvements to the statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme using GOES imagery.   24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

DeMuth, J.L., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2000:  An objective method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity and structure from NOAA-15 advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) data. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Doesken, N.J. and Weaver, J.F., 2000:  Micro-scale rainfall variations measured by a local volunteer network. 12th Conference on Applied Climatology. 8-12 May, Asheville, NC, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dependence of dryline formation on soil moisture.  Mon Wea. Rev.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: A numerical simulation of dryline sensitivity to soil moisture. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Horsfall, F. and M. DeMaria, 2000: Climatological analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins.  24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 2000:  Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Knaff, J.A. and C.S. Velden, 2000:  Relationships between the multi-layered wind field and the intensity of Hurricane Floyd.  24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Knaff, J.A. and J.F. Weaver, 2000: A mesoscale low-level thunderstorm outflow boundary associated with Hurricane Luis. Mon. Wea. Rev. (Picture of the Month).

Knaff, J.A., R.M. Zehr, M.D. Goldberg, and S.Q. Kidder, 2000:  An example of temperature structure differences in two cyclone systems derived from the Advance Microwave Sounder Unit. Weather and Forecasting.

Landsea, C.W. and J.A. Knaff, 2000:  How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events? 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 2000:  How much skill was there in forecasting the great 1997-98 El Nino?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Molenar, D.A., K.J. Schrab, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: RAMSDIS contributions to NOAA satellite data utilization. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Bulletin.

Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2000: Analysis of 200 mb wind and 1000-200 mb depth-averaged temperature trends for the period 1958-1997. J. Geophysical Research.

Weaver, J.F., J.F. Dostalek, B.C. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000:  Severe thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A satellite training case.  National Weather Digest.  In press.

Zehr, R.M., 2000: Tropical cyclone research using large infrared image data sets.   24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Submitted:

Dostalek, J.F., and T.J. Schmit, 2000: GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection. Weather and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: A brief review of numerically simulated descending and nondescending tornadoes.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dissipation of a left moving cell in a severe storm envirnoment. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Grasso, L.D., 2000: Simulated dyrline sensitivity to surface parameters.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Weaver, J.F., E. Gruntfest, and G.M. Levy, 2000:  The Fort Collins floods: Learning from a natural disaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Zajac, B.A. and S. A. Rutledge, 1999:  Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the contiguous United States from 1995-1997.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

See VISIT

Received:
 

* D. Hillger attended two scholarly web research workshop held January 20 and February 8 at the library on the Colorado State University main campus.  The first workshop explored the differences and relationships among web search engines, proprietary library databases, and free web-based library resources.  Tips on searching databases, catalogs, and the “free” web were featured.  The second workshop explored two UnCover services subsidized by CSU for faculty and students.  UnCover allows access via the Internet to over 1800 journal titles and fax delivery of articles selected by the user.  The second service, UnCover Reveal, allows e-mail delivery of tables of contents for selected journals upon publication and keyword and author searches for articles as they are published.