Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Hillger

See Future GOES

A submission to the journal Weather and Forecasting entitled “GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection” by J. Dostalek and Tim Schmit of CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin-Madison was returned for revisions.  Corrections are currently being made and are to be returned to the editor by April 23.

Software to generate Principal Component Images (PCIs) on McIDAS systems has been copied to the CIRA FTP server so that Gary Ellrod of ORA can access it for his work on volcanic ash cases.  The same software has also been made available to the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB).  Jim Clark requested this software so that PCIs can be generated from GOES data on non-RAMSDIS systems at SAB.  Previously PCI products were only available on the SAB RAMSDIS.

D. Hillger provided answers to several questions about GOES data posed by Octavio Fashe, a geophysics student at the University of San Marcos in Lima Peru.  Mr. Fashe contacted the RAMM Team with questions about brightness temperatures and brightness counts used to display GOES imagery after seeing our RAMMT website.  Also, a subroutine for solar zenith angle determination was delivered to Mr. Fashe.

Future GOES

A simulation was conducted of the effect of changing the 12.0 µm band (band-5) on current GOES-8 thru 11 to a 13.3 µm band (band-6) starting with GOES-M through O, the first of which is to be launched in the summer of 2001.  The simulations involved both two-band and three-band image products used for volcanic ash detection by the Satellite Analysis Branch.  The example was the 20 December 2000 eruption of Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City simulated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data.  The results for this case indicate that a two-band product that utilizes the 10.7 µm band-4 and new 13.3 µm band-6 is ineffective for volcanic ash detection.  However a three-band product, such as derived from Principal Component Imagery (PCI) analysis, that uses GOES bands 2, 4 and the new band-6, while still inferior to the same product with the 12.0 µm band-5, is at least of some value for volcanic ash detection.  Below are four figures that show examples of both two- and three-band products utilizing both the old and new GOES bands.
 

Figure 1: Ash plume from Popocatepetl volcano at 1715 UTC on 20 December 2000 seen in a two-band difference image simulated for GOES-8 thru 11 bands 4 and 5.

Figure 2: Same as Figure 1 but simulated for GOES-M thru O bands 4 and 6.
 

Figure 3: Ash plume from Popocatepetl volcano at 1715 UTC on 20 December 2000 seen in a three-band PCI product simulated for GOES-8 thru 11 bands 2, 4, and 5.

Figure 4: Same as Figure 3 but simulated for GOES-M thru O bands 2, 4, and 6.

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were obtained from Chris Moeller at UW/CIMSS for a December 20 case where a large region of volcanic ash was detected in GOES imagery over Mexico from the Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City.  According to the attached analysis from the NESDIS/SAB Volcanic Ash Advisory Center the ash plume was concentrated east and south of the volcano, but it extended as far east as the Yucatan Peninsula.  The ash was detected in several Principal Component Images (PCIs) created from the seventeen MODIS IR bands.  One of those images, PCI-8, is attached.  It shows the extent of the ash cloud, and in this case, the ash detection is not confused by surrounding cirrus clouds that often cause problems with the standard GOES channel-4/5 difference used to view ash plumes.  This and other PCIs that detected the ash cloud were weighted heavily towards specific MODIS bands in the shortwave, longwave, and water vapor absorption bands.  A longer report on this study is being prepared together with Jim Clark of SAB.
 

Figure 1. Volcanic ash analysis for 1845 UTC on 20 December 2000.  Analysis based on GOES multi-spectral imagery by the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC).

Figure 2. PCI-8 of 17 PCIs that were generated from the 17 longer-wavelength bands of MODIS for this case: 1715 UTC on 20 December 2000.  PCI-8 contains only 0.18% of the information content in the 17 MODIS bands that went into the analysis.

Work continues on a study to use the RAMS modeling system to generate simulated GOES channel 4 imagery for sensitivity tests of the autoestimator rain algorithm.

Processing of the U.S. climatologies continues on schedule.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2000, January and February 2001, and wind regime composites for November, December 2000, and January 2001.  Monthly wind regime composites covering the past three years has been completed, including April, November and December 2000.  We are now starting on combining four years, with January 2001 completed.

A special data processing project for Arnie Gruber from NESDIS/ORA in Washington has also been completed.  It consisted of pulling data from our climatology archive, then processing specified sectors and times to correspond with dates for his rainfall study.

The 2000 data processing and combination with earlier years for the Wakefield project has been completed.  The resulting products are now being analyzed and converted into gif images.

D. Bikos and J. Weaver are collaborating with NWS BUF and Greg Byrd (COMET) on a long-term statistical study of PBL depth with lake-effect snow cases.  Results will be incorporated into an advanced training session on the same topic.  To see the first training session, refer to: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Modeling work continues to focus on left moving thunderstorms, since documentation for left moving thunderstorms is rather sparse in the literature.  Our goal is to improve the documentation by reporting on left movers, and in particular for those cases in which both GOES satellite imagery, and WSR-88D radar data are available.

B. Motta participated in a second beta test of the “Top 10 Numerical Weather Prediction Misconceptions” teletraining being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

Cooperative research and interaction continues with Dr. William Gray’s project at CSU. The focus is on providing satellite data information to aid in their ongoing hurricane research using aircraft flight level and GPS dropsonde data sets.

Software to generate additional floating sectors of GOES products have been sent to the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB).  Principal Component Images (PCIs) of active volcanic regions are generated for the additional floating sectors.  After the first PCI products were delivered in 1999, an additional sector was requested and delivered in 2000, and now two additional sectors are possible for multiple volcano monitoring.  The PCI products are being used to view volcanic ash and hot spots from four regions simultaneously, such as Mexico, Montserrat, Central America, and Ecuador.  At a later date, further modifications to the software were sent to SAB.  The new software changes the display on some of the user-selected floating sectors employed for volcanic hot spot and ash detection with GOES imagery.  The new software produces 2-panel displays of PCIs, instead of 4-panel displays, for reasons of increased areal coverage over two of the active volcanoes being monitored.  This change was requested by Jim Clark of SAB after a recent visit to CIRA.  Below is an example 2-panel image for the 20 December 2000 eruption of Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City.  The top panel would show the volcanic hot spot if not obscured by clouds, and the bottom panel shows volcanic ash as white.  This wider east-west display tracks the ash as far east as the Yucatan Peninsula.
 

A manuscript entitled ‘High Resolution GOES -8 Visible and Infrared Cloud Frequency Composites over Northern Florida during the Summers 1996-1999′ by B. Connell, K. Gould, and J. Purdom, was submitted to Weather and Forecasting.  The paper highlights the results of a regime-based sea breeze cloud frequency climatology designed to aid forecasters in predicting the timing and extent of convection under various background wind regimes.

During the VISIT lightning session on 23 March, the Science and Operations Officer from WFO Albuquerque expressed particular interest in lightning as a potential tool for estimating precipitation amounts over large areas where radar scans are blocked by mountainous terrain. Preliminary research is underway at Albuquerque. Zajac and Weaver stated their willingness to be involved in a project that could benefit WFOs throughout the West.

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imagery for December 2000 through February, 2001 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to study cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. An example of monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1996 -2001 by 10.7 um temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica is presented in Figure 1.
 

Figure 1:  Example of monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February  1996  – 2001 by 10.7 mm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 Fm imagery for December – February of 1998 – 2001 is shown in Figure 2.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

Figure 2:  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 mm imagery for December – February of 1998 – 2001.

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

The training on the use of satellite imagery on the RAMSDIS system has been set for April 23-27, 2001.  The focus of the weeklong seminar will be on GOES image interpretation and satellite based precipitation techniques.  Each of 7 Central American countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize) has nominated 2 participants to attend.  Lectures and labs are being updated for use with the RAMSDIS system.  Also the selection of the contractor for the GOES ingest system is nearly completed.

Meetings/Conferences:
 

Visitors:
 

The ORA intranet page was modified to allow archiving of the 2001 weekly highlights section.

The following web pages are still available:

Hurricane Mitch:   http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/MitchProject/default.htm

Wakefield Wind Climatology:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/clim/Wakefield/windr.html

Temporal and Spectral Differences of Water Vapor Radiances:  http://cassiopeia.cira.colostate.edu/

Tropical RAMSDIS has continued operation during the Southern Hemisphere Hurricane Season. In addition to those tropical cyclones, other tropical weather systems are viewed. Evaluation continues for upgrades, improvements, and experimental product testing.

In support of the PACJET experiment, a RAMSDIS unit was sent to the operations headquarters at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.  Because a similar experiment may occur next winter, the RAMSDIS unit will remain at NPS.

Newly developed capabilities and new versions of the VISITview software were tested.  Also see VISIT

J. Weaver spent a day-and-a-half at COMET in Boulder preparing material for presentation at the next several Warning Decision Making classes.  He was asked to add a satellite component to the otherwise WSR88D-dominated world of severe thunderstorm nowcaster training.

J. Weaver recorded a voice-script for a web-based training course on urban flash flooding.  Weaver supplied much of the text, voice and photos for this course.

J.  Weaver made presentations at two Warning Decision Making courses at COMET on January 2 and March 8.  His presentation lasts about 1-½ hours and is titled “Understanding Mesoscale Aspects of Convective Weather using Satellite Imagery.”

J. Weaver continues as the NOAA representative on the City of Fort Collins= Disaster Resistant Community steering committee.  His goal is to assure that weather information is utilized as a potential mitigation tool.  Part of this effort includes the Natural Disaster Information Card series (see VISIT).

M. DeMaria gave a talk entitled “ Hurricanes and Their Impacts” to about 30 seventh graders at Blevins Junior High.

M. DeMaria spoke on hurricanes to a group of Fort Collins Junior High School Students, as part of their field trip to CIRA the week of March 26.

Published:
 

Chase, T.N., J.A. Knaff, and R.A. Pielke, 2001: Trends in global monsoon circulations: Evidence for a diminished
hydrological cycle? 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations – 81st Annual AMS Meeting,
14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

DeMaria, M., 2001: Extension of statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecasts to Day 4 and Day 5. 55th
Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, Orlando, FL.

DeMaria, M., and R.E. Tuleya, 2001: Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts from the GFDL hurricane model.
Precipitation of Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque,
NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Kidder, S.Q., J.A. Knaff, and S.J. Kusselson, 2001: Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes.Precipitation of Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses -81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 2001: How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and
1998-2000 La Nina events? Climate Variability, the Ocean, and Societal Impacts – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19
January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Motta, B.C., D.E. Bikos, B.A. Zajac, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, B. Grant, J. LaDue, A. Mostek, P. Wolf, J.F. Weaver,
and R.M. Zehr, 2001: Recent training and results from the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training. 17th
International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19
January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Motta, B.C., D.E. Bikos, B.A. Zajac, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, B. Grant, J. LaDue, A. Mostek, P. Wolf, J.F. Weaver,
and R.M. Zehr, 2001: Recent training and results from the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training. 10th
Symposium on Education – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Scofield, R.A., M. DeMaria, and R.M. Alfaro, 2001: Space-based rainfall capabilities in hurricanes offshore and inland.
Precipitation of Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque,
NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Zehr, R.M., 2001: Characteristics of 23 Atlantic Intense Hurricanes –1995-2000– Satellite and Aircraft Observations.
55th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, Orlando, FL.

Accepted:

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Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2001: Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J.
of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.

Chase, T.N., J.A. Knaff, and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2001: Changes in global monsoon circulations: Evidence for a diminishing
hydrological cycle? Int. J. Climatol.

Connell, B.H., K. Gould, J.F.W. Purdom, 2001: High resolution GOES-8 visible and infrared cloud frequency composites over Northern Florida during the summers 1996-1999. Weather and Forecasting.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and B.H. Connell, 2001:A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the Tropical Atlantic, Weather
and Forecasting.

Ellrod, G., B.H. Connell, D.W. Hillger, 2001: Improved detection of airborne volcanic ash using multi-spectral infrared
satellite data. J. Geophys. Res.

Grasso, L.D. and E.R. Hilgendorf, 2001: Observations of a severe left moving thunderstorm. Weather and
Forecasting.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, 2001: A note on the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall in the New England area. J. of
Applied Meteorology.

Weaver, J.F., J.F. Dostalek, and L. Phillips, 2001: Left-moving thunderstorms in a high plains, weakly-sheared
environment. 18th conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather
Prediction, 30 July-2 August, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Zajac, B.A. and S. A. Rutledge, 2001: Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the contiguous United States from 1995-1997.
Mon. Wea. Rev.

Submitted:

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Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, B.C. Motta, 2001: A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak.
Weather and Forecasting.

DeMaria, M., J.M. Gross, and E.N. Rappaport, 2001: Long-term trends in hurricane watches and warnings issued by the
National Hurricane Center. Bull. of the Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Dostalek, J.F., and T.J. Schmit, 2001: GOES sounder derived product imagery: comparisons to radiosondes and use in
forecasting severe convection. Weather and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., 2001: Simulation of a left moving cell following storm splitting. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Grasso, L.D. and J.F. Weaver, 2001: Horizontal vorticity budget along a simulated supercell outflow boundary. Mon.
Wea. Rev.

Knaff, J.A., J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, V.E. Larson, 2001: Nature’s axisymmetric hurricane – “The Doughnut.” J. of
Atmospheric Science.

Motta, B.C., 2001: Model trends and satellite imagery in forecasting. 18th Conference on Weather Analysis and
Forecasting and the 14th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 29 July-2 August, Fort Lauderdale, FL Amer.
Meteor. Soc.

Nolan, D.S., M.T. Montgomery, and L.D. Grasso, 2001: The wavenumber one instability and trochoidal motion of
hurricane-like vortices. J. of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2001: Analysis of 200 mb zonal wind for the period
1958-1997. Climate Dynamics.

Weaver, J.F., J.A. Knaff, D.E. Bikos, G. Wade, J.M. Daniels, 2001: Satellite observations of a severe supercell
thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 taken during the GOES-11 Science Test. Bull. of the Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Received:

Given:

HP Service Contracts were renewed.  Addition of hardware service agreement is currently being reviewed.

Security patches as of March 2001 have been installed on all HP workstations.

New circuits have been added in all labs and in the VISIT office.

A student hourly has been hired to assist with infrastructure support tasks.

The week of February 2, in response to a request for proposals by the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), a small proposal was submitted to NCEP through COMET to develop a specialized assimilation system for tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone assimilation system is based upon a simplified system of equations (the Eliassen balanced vortex model), and will be tested as a candidate for inclusion in the global data assimilation system. The vertical structure functions will be determined from statistical analysis of aircraft reconnaissance data in the lower troposphere and wind retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

A proposal requesting two years support (8 months total) from the NOAA Office of Global Programs CLIVAR-Pacific program was submitted the week of January 19.  Entitled “Beyond ENSO-CLIPER: A Second Generation ENSO Forecast Model”, the proposal is in partnership with C. Landsea at NOAA/AOML/HRD and will study the development of a second generation ENSO forecast model.

On January 5, at the request of Robert Abbey, a proposal was submitted to ONR to generalize a statistical intensity forecast method developed for the Atlantic and East Pacific for use in the Western Pacific tropical cyclone basin. ONR research funds have become available from a special one-year ONR project to enhance the ability to transition research results to the operational environment.

Annual review meetings were held March 12 and 13 with most of the CIRA RAMM Team employees. A summary of accomplishments was presented to their supervisor (L. Grasso) in preparation for appointment renewals later in the year. M. DeMaria also attended these meetings. One recurring theme was that the method by which CIRA employees are evaluated and rewarded needs clarification. A new classification and promotion system is currently being developed at CIRA to address this problem.

AMS:  American Meteorological Society

AMSU:  Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

ARAD:  Atmospheric Research and Applications Division

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

CAMEX:  Convection and Moisture Experiment

CG: Cloud to Ground

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

CONUS: Continental U.S.

CRAD:  Climate Research and Applications Division

CSU:  Colorado State University

EUMETSAT:  European Meteorological Satellite

FEMA:Federal Emergency Management Agency

FTP: File Transfer Protocol

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

HRD:  Hurricane Research Division

IR: Infrared

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System

LES:  Lake Effect Snow

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

NASA:  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

NHC: National Hurricane Center

NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service

NOAA:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWS: National Weather Service

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

OM:  Office of Meteorology

ORA:  Office of Research and Applications

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

POP: Product Oversight Panel

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

RAMS:  Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

ROL: RAMSDIS Online

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

SOO: Science Operations Officer

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

UTC:  Universal Time Coordinated

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

WMO: World Meteorological Organization

WV:  Water Vapor