Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

A manuscript entitled “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm on 25 May 1999” was submitted to Wea. Forecasting.  J. Dostalek and J. Weaver of CIRA/RAMM along with Loren Phillips, the Science and Operations Officer at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lubbock, TX, are the authors.

Development work has begun on a new VISIT session that will present several illustrative severe thunderstorm cases studies from various regions around the country.  The session will focus on the use of RSO imagery to diagnose the near-storm environment.  Satellite data for the study come from the archived RSO data set at CIRA.

See also Mesoscale Modeling category under “RESEARCH (Applications Development).”

Software was written to convert NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to a packed ASCII format for development of algorithms for prediction of tropical cyclone formation and intensity change.

The routines used to convert GFS model data in grib format to a packed ASCII format for use in AMSU retrievals over tropical cyclones was updated.  The 925 hPa level was added and the size of the Atlantic/East Pacific sector domain was increased.  The domain now extends from 30º S to 70º N and from 20º W to 160º E.

Code was written to read McIDAS MD files containing GOES cloud tracked winds outside of the McIDAS environment.  This information is being used in conjunction with other satellite data to derive a satellite only surface wind estimate for tropical cyclones.

A manuscript entitled “Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived From Climatology and Persistence” was published in Wea. Forecasting.  The paper describes the development and performance of statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecasting models designed to make forecasts in the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and the western North Pacific, which utilize climatology and persistence (CLIPER) as a basis. 

AMSU-based tropical cyclone products were verified in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins The intensity (maximum wind and minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)) and the radii of the 34, 50 and 64 kt winds to the NE, SE, SW and NW of the storm center were estimated from the AMSU data in real-time for all available cases. The estimates were obtained from NOAA-15 and –16. At the very end of the season, the algorithm was generalized to include data from NOAA-17. A few cases from tropical depression 16 in the east Pacific were obtained from the NOAA-17 data. A comprehensive evaluation was performed using the final NHC best track as ground truth for the intensity estimates and the operational NHC forecast/advisories for the wind radii. Two data samples from 2002 were considered. The first one included all east Pacific and Atlantic cases (288 cases, roughly evenly divided between the basins), and the second was restricted to cases with recon data within 6 hours of the AMSU pass (64 cases, mostly from the Atlantic). For comparison, the errors from the 1999-2001 developmental sample were also included. The mean absolute error (MAE), bias, root-mean square error (RMSE) and explained variance were calculated for each of these samples. 
Figure 1 shows the MAE for the intensity estimates. These results show that the intensity error characteristics from the 2002 real-time runs were nearly the same as for the developmental sample. Similar to the developmental sample, the method under-estimated the intensity of the most intense systems. This problem will be investigated further during the next six months.  Click on images to enlarge.
 

Figure 1.  The Mean Absolute Error of the CIRA AMSU intensity estimates from the 2002 real-time runs and from the 1999-2001 developmental sample. 

Figure 2.  The Mean Absolute Error of the CIRA AMSU wind radii estimates from the 2002 real-time runs and from the 1999-2001 developmental sample.

Figure 2 shows the MAE for the AMSU wind radii estimates. The errors tended to be smaller for the cases where recon data was available. For the recon sample, the errors of the 34 and 64 kt wind radii are somewhat larger than those from the developmental sample, but the 50 kt wind radii errors were smaller.

Table 1 shows all of the error statistics for the 2002 evaluation of the CIRA algorithm. The results are generally similar to the mean absolute errors shown in Figures 1 and 2 in that the real-time results have characteristics similar to the developmental sample results. One exception is that the AMSU 50 and 64 kt wind radii estimates tended to have a high bias. This bias appears to be related to the asymmetry factor included in the method used to determine the asymmetric radii from the symmetric average. The “observed” wind radii tended to be more asymmetric than those predicted by the AMSU algorithm. Generally, there were more cases where the “observed” radii were zero in some quadrants, relative to the AMSU estimates. This is the primary cause for the high bias in the radii estimates. This problem will be investigated in the next six months by re-examining the asymmetry factor included in the AMSU wind radii algorithm.  Click on table to enlarge.

Table 1.  2002 Validation statistics for the CIRA algorithm (N=sample size, MAE=Mean Absolute Error, RMSE=Root Mean Square Error, Bias=average error, R2=Explained Variance).

A similar verification was performed in the Western North Pacific using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s Best Track dataset.  There were 276 cases in the intensity comparison, as real-time estimates started in June of 2003.  Intensity results are shown in Figure 3.  In this basin mean intensity errors are a bit larger.  These larger errors, (particularly MSLP errors) may be a result of the best track that is based entirely upon Dvorak based estimates of intensity. Click on images to enlarge.
 

Figure 3:   AMSU-based intensity errors for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin.  There were 276 cases in the sample.

Figure 4:  AMSU-based estimates of R34 in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin.  There were 206 cases in this sample. 

Gale force wind radii were also compared to JTWC’s best track estimates (mostly from Quick Scat) as shown in Figure 4.  There were 203 cases in this sample.  The errors associated with the R34 estimates are similar to those in the Atlantic.  It was noticed in this verification that the largest errors in R34 occurred when Quick Scat estimates were unavailable and the storm was located in a region of strong horizontal shear (e.g. monsoon trough).

A methodology has been developed to combine surface wind analyses from four independent satellite data sources: geostationary infrared, Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU), scatterometer winds (QuikScat), and low-level satellite winds. The combined product has sufficient resolution to depict intensity (i.e., maximum surface wind speed, and its location) and enough coverage to depict size, as given by the extent of the gale force winds.  The example shown (Figure 5) is with Hurricane Michelle on November 3, 2001 along with an east/west cross section of this analysis compared to an analysis created using aircraft reconnaissance (Figure 6). Additional development work is planned in the next several quarters.  Click on images to enlarge.
 

Figure 5:  Multi-platform satellite surface wind analysis for Hurricane Michelle at 0000 UTC on 3 November 2001. Data from AMSU, QuikSCAT and GOES were combined using a variational analysis procedure. 

Figure6:   East/west cross section through the wind analysis shown in Fig. 5 compared with a similar profile created using QuikSCAT, GOES, and aircraft reconnaissance.

In the effort to develop a RAMSDIS unit specifically for polar-orbiting satellite data and products, it was discovered that NOAA-15, 16, and 17 AVHRR images on the Polar (PLR) server at NESDIS contain either un-calibrated or poorly calibrated data.  In creating composite AVHRR band-4 images, cloud-top temperatures are quite different among the three satellites.  The attached 3-part figure shows a composite image centered over the North Pole with NOAA-15, 16, and 17 passes, respectively, on top.  Note the change in the color of the cloud top in the center of the image.  Temperatures at the North Pole are 235 K, 228 K, and 218 K respectively.  CIRA/RAMM will look into the problem.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1:  NOAA AVHRR band-4 composite images over the North Pole with NOAA-15, NOAA-16, and NOAA-17 passes on top.  Note the change in the color of the cloud top over the Pole (in the center of the image), differences on the order of 10 K among the satellites.

A long-lived weather feature in the Rocky Mountain region this winter was a patch of fog/stratus that covered the valley surrounding Vernal UT in the northeastern part of that state.  That patch of stratus lasted for about 2 weeks (the first 2 weeks of December 2002) being maintained by local conditions in spite of the passage of several upper-level weather systems.  Daytime MODIS data were collected on two of the days (7 and 12 December) during the latter part of this event.  Figures 1 and 2 show Principal Component Image analysis of 27 (minus the ocean color bands) of the 36 available MODIS bands.  Various combinations of the MODIS bands show both the extent of the fog/stratus as well as emphasize spatial variations and the edges of the fog/stratus.  Another image combination shows many jet contrails in the overlying cirrus on one of the analysis days.  

Figure 1a

Figure 1a:  Fog/stratus over the valley surrounding Vernal UT in the northeast corner of that state on 7 Dec 2002 as seen in a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS band-17 (0.9 µm water vapor) minus band-29 (8.5 µm water vapor).  This image emphasizes the extent of the fog/stratus, as seen underneath the overlying high-level cirrus.
Figure 1b

Figure 1b:  Same as Figure 1a, except a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS band-27 (6.7 µm water vapor) minus band-30 (9.7 µm ozone).  This image emphasizes spatial variations and the edges of the fog/stratus.  Note also the multi-detector striping in this image.

Figure 1c

Figure 1c:  Same as Figure 1a, except a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS band-5 (1.2 µm near IR) minus band-20 (3.7 µm shortwave IR).  This image emphasizes the high-level jet contrails over the entire region, as well as some multi-detector striping.

Figure 2a

Figure 2a:  Fog/stratus over the valley surrounding Vernal UT in the northeast corner of that state on 12 Dec 2002 as seen in a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS band-17 (0.9 µm near IR) minus band-29 (8.5 µm water vapor).  This image emphasizes the extent of the fog/stratus as seen partially hidden under some mid-level clouds, but without the overlying high-level cirrus in Figure 1a.

Figure 2b

Figure 2b:  Same as Figure 2a except a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS bands 7 and 5 (2.1 and 1.2 um near IR) and 20 (3.7 µm shortwave IR) minus band-36 (14.2 µm IR).  This image also emphasizes the extent of the fog/stratus, as well with some terrain features for the surrounding area.

Figure 2c

Figure 2c:  Same as Figure 2a except a composite image consisting mainly of MODIS band-20 (3.7 µm shortwave IR) minus bands 5 and 6 (1.2 and 1.6 µm near IR).  This image emphasizes spatial variations and the edges of the fog/stratus.

Work continued with Bob Kuligowski (NOAA/NESDIS) on improvements to the Hydro-estimator. April 26, 1991 was chosen for the case study. Three main programs were tested and work. They are the RAMS mesoscale model, the Observation Operator–to simulate GOES-9 10.7 um brightness temperatures, and the Hydro-estimator. The goal is to examine the sensitivity of the Hydro-estimator to horizontal variations in precipitable water and a layered averaged relative humidity.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2002, January and February 2003. These include new channel 4 cloud cover products based on a threshold method.

Wind regime composites have been completed for November 2002, with combined products for 1998-2002.  Later months of wind regime products have been delayed due to a switch of the information source and a new wind format.  

A poster describing an on-going project with the Cheyenne, WFO entitled, “Examining High Wind Events Using Satellite Cloud Cover Composites over the Cheyenne, Wyoming Region” was presented at the AMS Satellite Conference in Long Beach, CA.

Lubbock Dryline Experiment (Weaver, Dostalek)

A manuscript entitled “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999″ was submitted to the journal Weather and Forecasting. J. Dostalek and J. Weaver of CIRA/RAMM along with Loren Phillips, the Science and Operations Officer at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Lubbock, TX, are the authors.

GOES Science Tests (Hillger, Knaff, Weaver)
GOES-12:

(The report is an MS-Word document found via a link.) As the short introduction states, this is a DRAFT available for final review, not yet with final formatting

GOES-11:

GOES-11 data are being used as the primary data source for the new fire detection VISIT session currently under development (see Natural Hazards).

Work has begun on software to process radiosonde data from the NOAA/FSL archive for Quillayute, WA, San Francisco, CA, and San Diego, CA as part of a low level jet climatology. GOES-West satellite imagery and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data will also be included in the climatology.

J. Weaver and D. Bikos are collaborating with the National Interagency Fire Center (Boise, ID) and several regional fire coordination centers as part of the development of a new wildland fire detection VISIT session.

D. Lindsey is a member of a Quality Assurance (QA) Team for the NWS Learning Management System (LMS).  This team was tasked with thoroughly testing all portions of the NWS LMS site and reporting problems to GeoLearning (the vendor).  The testing is still ongoing, but the site is scheduled for launch later this year.  

D. Lindsey and D. Watson attended training in Kansas City for the Learning Management System (LMS) being implemented by the National Weather Service. The LMS, scheduled to be launched later this year, will eventually take over scheduling and evaluation functions for VISIT teletraining. There are still many bugs in the system, so it may be several more months before it becomes operational.

J. Weaver and J. Dostalek continue their interaction with Loren Phillips (Lubbock NWS) on a severe thunderstorm paper, and with NWS offices in ABQ, SLC and AFG on a new VISIT session.  

D. Lesczynski (Fire Weather Meteorologist, Denver NWSFO) visited CIRA to collaborate on a new VISIT training session dealing with fire detection utilizing GOES satellite imagery.  

J. Weaver presented a seminar entitled “A Missionary Ridge, Fire-Spawned Tornado” to a combined audience of CIRA and Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science students at the Department of Atmospheric Science.  

J. Dostalek assisted Mahalingam Haritharan of Santa Clara University with a McIDAS program designed to help identify thunderstorms from satellite imagery.  The work is in support of research investigating the detection of lightning from satellite, which is partially supported through a grant from NESDIS/ORA.  Mahalingam Haritharan is continuing the work of Jeremy Black, who visited the RAMM Branch last summer.

Brazil Project:

The upgrade for Brazil’s RAMSDIS fire system is ready.  We are awaiting the arrival of one of their systems to install the upgrade. 

Japanese Interaction:

Mr. Kotaro Bessho from the Typhoon Research Division of the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) arrived at CIRA in early October. He will be working with RAMM Team on developing and improving AMSU tropical cyclone analysis algorithms for the western North Pacific basin.  He plans to use QuikSCAT data to help validate the AMSU-derived surface wind fields.  Mr. Bessho will be at CIRA for about one year. 

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

The project to transition the Hurricane Mitch RAMSDIS-NT system in Central America from GOES-8 to GOES-12 is now in its last phase.  The test installation of the upgrade was a success at Belize, and with a minor change in the installation instructions, the upgrade packages were shipped out to the remaining countries: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Guatemala, and Nicaragua.  The upgrade entails installation of the new McIDAS-NT version 2002b which contains the updated calibration module for the GOES-12, several modified Graphical User Interface modules for easier access and interaction with the products, and addition of two new products as well as improved programming methodology in various applications programs.  Four script files were created to ease the installation process, and the installation itself involves just running two script files from two different accounts.  The GOES-12 transition upgrade for the RMTC, Brazil Fires, and the Tropical RAMSDIS systems will follow.

Two new products were added to RAMSDIS to include the McIDAS upgrade for GOES-12.  The two new products are: 1) an enhanced Autoestimator Product which has been used in Florida and which gives better results for the tropics, and 2) a contextual fire product.

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imagery for December 2002 through February, 2003 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to study at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  Figure 10 shows the monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1997-2003 by a 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.  Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1.

Figure 1. Monthly Cloud Frequency from 10.7 µm GOES-8 imagery using temperature threshold (273 K)

A comparison of cloud frequency derived from a temperature threshold method applied to 10.7 µm imagery for December – February 1998 – 2003 for Barbados is shown in Figures 11. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

Figure 2.

Figure 2.  Monthly Cloud Frequency from 10.7 µm GOES-8 imagery using temperature threshold (283 K)

Progress with Costa Rica is being made on a case study on the analysis of Venezuela flooding during December 14-16, 1999.  The whole month of December 1999 was wetter than average with rainfall accumulations during 14-16 December alone totaling 911 mm alone along the northern Venezuelan coast.  The rainfall triggered major landslides and debris flows.  An estimated 30,000 to 50,000 people lost their lives.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in gif and jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean:

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in gif and jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean: 

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html 

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/BARB.html

The imagery over South America was used in real time for the South American Low Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX).

SICA Project:

The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate: 

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html

The RAMM Team Infrastructure page has been upgraded to include Infrastructure Group goals, hardware procurement plans and status, and quarterly project status and human resource allocation.  The hardware procurement plans and status have also been sent to ORA.

Web-based versions for all VISIT training sessions can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

The following web pages are still available:

Hurricane Mitch:   http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/MitchProject/default.htm

Wakefield Wind Climatology:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/clim/Wakefield/windr.html

Several additions and modifications to the Satellite Information Discussion describing the large forest fires that occurred in Colorado this past summer were made this quarter.  The page can be viewed at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/picoday/020930/020930.htm

All 14 operational RAMSDIS sites have been notified of project termination when GOES-12 is activated.  Equipment remaining at those sites has been deeded over and removed from CIRA’s inventory.

The RAMSDIS-2002b upgrade necessary to receive GOES-12 has been shipped to all remaining international sites.  Instructions for patching the Costa Rican ingest for GOES-12 reception have been sent from Global Imaging.  Upgrade of CIRA lab ingest systems, with the exception of the Sounder systems, is complete.

AWIPS datasets for the 2003 Presidents Day snowstorm and the Colorado Blizzard of March 2003 were saved.  These cases will be utilized in developing a new VISIT teletraining session on winter weather.  The development will begin in the summer and will be delivered in time for the winter of 2003-2004 season.

A new Pentium 4 Linux machine has been configured.  The Unidata Local Data Manager software, which supplies NOAAPORT products for the Team’s experimental AWIPS workstation, has also been installed on the workstation, and data have been successfully ingested.  Assistance has been provided to CIMSS to get the LDM working on their WES workstation.  Efforts are currently underway to install D2D 5.2.1 (5.2.2 is the most recent version but is unavailable) and migrate the Team’s experimental AWIPS capabilities to the new platform.

During this quarter 39 VISIT teletraining sessions were delivered, 853 students from 232 NWS offices participated.

A new VISIT teletraining session debuted this quarter called “Satellite Rainfall Hydro-Estimator.” Charles Kadin of NESDIS teaches the session.

The internal review for a multi-author article describing the first four years of the VISIT training program was completed. The article, entitled “VISIT – Bringing Training to Weather Service Forecasters using a New Distance Learning Tool” will be submitted to the Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

D. Lindsey is a member of a Quality Assurance (QA) Team for the NWS Learning Management System (LMS). This team was tasked with thoroughly testing all portions of the NWS LMS site and reporting problems to GeoLearning (the vendor). The testing is still ongoing, but the site is scheduled for launch later this year.

D. Lindsey and D. Watson attended training in Kansas City for the Learning Management System (LMS) being implemented by the National Weather Service. The LMS, scheduled to be launched later this year, will eventually take over scheduling and evaluation functions for VISIT teletraining. There are still many bugs in the system, so it will probably be several months before the system is operational.

A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since April 1999. As of March 14, the total is 10,341 certificates. Click on graph to enlarge.

The following list shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 14, 2003. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web page:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

The following map illustrates VISIT participation for each NWS WFO with national centers and CWSUs in the list on the right: Click on map to enlarge.

After each VISIT teletraining session an e-mail is sent out to the focal points with an evaluation. Here is a portion of the evaluation:

Rate questions #1-9 on a scale of 1 to 5:

1 –> strongly disagree
2 –> disagree
3 –> indifferent
4 –> agree
5 –> strongly agree

If you rate a question as 1 or 2, please discuss why.

1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.
2) The content of the session was appropriate.
3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.
4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.
5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me
involved in the session and test my learning.
6) The instructor explained the material clearly.
7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.
8) The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are
directly applicable to my job
9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

Below is a graph that summarizes these evaluation questions (from December 2000 through the present): Click on graph to enlarge.

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Boundary Detection:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Cyclogenesis:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow I (basic):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Lightning Meteorology II:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather using GOES RSO:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

NDIC:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web. The downloadable files can be found by going to the list of teletraining sessions at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html,

then selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing. Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.

D. Hillger participated in a reception for 15 delegates from the People’s Republic of China to the headquarters office of the U.S. Metric Association (USMA) in the Los Angeles area on 26 February.  The Chinese delegation of metrology (weights and measures) experts were interested in the metric transition status of the United States.  Hillger gave a presentation on his volunteer role as the Webmaster for the USMA Website hosted by Colorado State University: http://www.metric.org

D. Lindsey and D. Watson attended training in Kansas City for the Learning Management System (LMS) being implemented by the National Weather Service. The LMS, scheduled to be launched later this year, will eventually take over scheduling and evaluation functions for VISIT teletraining. There are still many bugs in the system, so it will probably be several months before it becomes operational.

GOES imagery from the February 1st, 2003 space shuttle Columbia disaster have been added to RAMSDIS Online’s archives and case studies web page. Currently available are loops of GOES-8 channels 1-4. This data was posted in response to recent requests for imagery on the day of the disaster.

D. Watson processed a January 22, 2003 GOES-East dataset in support of SALLJEX (South American Low-Level Jet Experiment). Jpeg’s were made of the dataset and provided online for the participants. The dataset consists of 8 sectors with 4 channels each.

Published:

Combs, C.L., M. Weiland, M. DeMaria, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2003:  Examining high wind events using satellite cloud cover composites over the Cheyenne, WY region.  12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM. 

DeMaria, M., 2003:  50 Years of Progress in Operational Forecasting of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.  AMS Simpson Symposium, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

DeMaria, M., 2003: A Monte Carlo method for estimating surface wind speed probabilities. 57th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 10-14 March, Miami, FL.

DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, and J.P. Kossin, 2003:  Improvements in Real-Time Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Satellite Data.  12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM.

Hillger, D.W., and G.P. Ellrod, 2003: Detection of important atmospheric and surface features by employing Principal Component Image transformation of GOES imagery, J. Appl. Meteor., 42:5, 611-629.

Hillger, D.W., and S.Q. Kidder, 2003:  A simple GOES skin temperature product.  12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, and J.M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18:2, 80-92.

Knaff, J.A., J.P. Kossin,and M. DeMaria, 2003: Annular Hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 18:2, 204-223.

Knaff, J.A., N. Wang, R.M. Zehr, M. DeMaria, J.S. Griffin, and F.D. Marks, 2003: A demonstration of real-time transmission and display of GOES imagery aboard the NOAA P-3 aircraft during the 2002 hurricane season.  12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM.

Mostek, A., S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, D.E. Bikos, D. Lindsey, J.F. Weaver, M. DeMaria, B. Grant,  and J. LaDue, 2003:  VISITview—Connecting Instructors with Operational Forecasters.  19th Conference on IIPS, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM.

Reasor, P.D., M.T. Montgomery, F.D. Marks, L.F. Bosart, J.F. Gamache, and J.A. Knaff, 2003:  Diagnosing the Role of Convective Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Airborne Doppler-derived Winds. Simpson Symposium, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Reinke, D.L., J.M. Forsythe, J.A. Kankiewicz, K.R. Dean, C.L. Combs, and T.H. Vonder Haar, 2003:  Development and Application of Regional Cloud Projects from the CHANCES Global Cloud Database.  12th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 10-14 February, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM.

Zehr, R.M., 2003:  Tropical cyclone surface wind analysis using satellite data- Dvorak, microwave, scatterometer, and cloud motion winds.  57th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 10-14 March, Miami, FL.

Accepted:

Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke Sr., J.A. Knaff, and E. Kalnay, 2003: Changes in global monsoon circulations: evidence for a diminishing hydrological cycle? Natural Hazards.

Ellrod, G., B.H. Connell, and D.W. Hillger, 2003: Improved detection of airborne volcanic ash using multi-spectral infrared satellite data. J. Geophys. Res.

Nolan, D., and L.D. Grasso, 2003:  Nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional perturbations to balanced, hurricane-like vortices.  Part II.  Symmetric response and nonlinear simulations.  J. of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Zehr, R.M., 2003: Environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha (1996). Wea. Forecasting. 

Submitted:

Demuth, J.L., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and T.H. Vonder Haar, 2003:  Validation of an Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm.  J. Appl. Meteor.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2003:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. J. of Climate.

Dostalek, J.F., J.F. Weaver, L. Phillips, 2003:  Noteworthy aspects of a severe left moving thunderstorm of 25 May 1999.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., and T.J. Greenwald, 2003:  Analysis of 10.7 um brightness temperatures of a simulated thunderstorm with two-moment microphysics. Mon. Wea. Review.

Hodanish, S., R. Holle, and D. Lindsey, 2003:  A small updraft producing a fatal lightning flash.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Familiarization with Linux continues. Two additional Linux systems have been ordered to support tropical research.

The HP workstation used for tropical research has been successfully repaired and is back on line.  

A presentation outlining Linux transition plans, and proposed mass storage, archive and system capabilities for the next 1-3 years was made to staff.   Hardware reviewed in the plan has been ordered.

An additional snap drive has been installed; efforts are underway to transfer data from the old, smaller drive, which will then be used for Windows system backups.

A failed hard drive has been replaced on Ulysses.
 
RAMMT research systems have been upgraded in preparation for the GOES-12 change over.  Several of the older systems do not have the capabilities to handle the GOES-12 data which necessitated the upgrade.  All lab systems have been upgraded with up-to-date hardware and software.  These systems include all our RAMSDIS Online workstations and servers.

RAMM Team members participated in the ORA/STAR All Hands Retreat held at Andrews Air Force Base, MD on January 8 and 9.  

The three-year term of M. DeMaria on the USWRP Science Steering Committee ended in January, 2003. 

A short document describing applications of satellite altimeter to tropical cyclone forecasting was provided to James McGuire of NASA, who is part of the NPOESS IPO. Although there are currently five satellites that can provide ocean altimeter data, there may be a gap of up to seven years starting in 2007 when no altimeter data is available. Results from real-time experiments in 2002 show that ocean heat content estimates from the altimeter data are very useful for tropical cyclone intensity prediction. The lack of this data would be a step backwards in terms of tropical cyclone forecasting.

A notice of intent to submit a research proposal to the NASA announcement of opportunity for research related to TERRA, AQUA and ACRIM data was submitted. This research will focus on the use of temperature and moisture sounding from AQUA for the study of tropical cyclone formation and intensity change.  

Proposal Submissions:

Two ESDIM proposals were submitted.  The first proposal requests funds to implement a web database to provide access to the tropical cyclone archive in year 1, and web access to tropical analysis routines in year 2.  Investigators are Molenar, Gosden, DeMaria and Zehr.  The second proposal requests funds for hardware, media, and hourly support to transition the U.S. Climatologies collected since 1995 from exabyte tape to DVD.  Investigators are Molenar, Combs, Connell, and DeMaria.

AMS: American Meteorological Society 

AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit 

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System 

CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment 

CG: Cloud to Ground 

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies 

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere 

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training 

CONUS: Continental U.S. 

CoRP:  Cooperative Research Programs

CSU: Colorado State University 

EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite 

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency 

FTP: File Transfer Protocol 

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan 

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 

HRD: Hurricane Research Division 

IR: Infrared 

JHT:  Joint Hurricane Transition 

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System 

LES: Lake-Effect Snow 

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System 

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research 

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards 

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service 

NHC: National Hurricane Center 

NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service 

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NWS: National Weather Service 

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office 

OM: Office of Meteorology 

ORA: Office of Research and Applications 

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment 

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite 

POP: Product Oversight Panel 

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team 

RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System 

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite
Demonstration and Interpretation System 

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center 

ROL: RAMSDIS Online 

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch 

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center 

SOO: Science Operations Officer 

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation 

STAR:  Office of Satellite Research and Development 

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study 

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center 

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program 

UTC: Universal Time Coordinated 

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training 

WMO: World Meteorological Organization 

WV: Water Vapor