Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The manuscript “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) has been tentatively scheduled for publication in the April or June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting .

A short article entitled “Some Frequently Overlooked Visual Severe Thunderstorm Characteristics observed on GOES Imagery – a Topic for Future Research” by John F. Weaver and Dan Lindsey has been accepted by Monthly Weather Review. Galley proofs have been reviewed and returned. The following two figures are from that submission.

Figure 1. a) schematic of idealized PPI radar reflectivity from a supercell thunderstorm, along with some storm scale features discussed in this paper, and b) schematic of a few cloud features that frequently appear on visible satellite imagery in association with supercell storms.

Figure 2.

Click on image to enlarge

Figure 2. GOES-7 visible satellite imagery from 13 March 1990 showing a storm near Hesston, KS as it transitions from a non-severe thunderstorm tone producing tornadoes and large hail. The phases of this evolution include; (upper-left panel, 22:01 UTC) shows the storm just before the rear flank downdraft (RFD) develops; (upper-right panel, 22:16 UTC) shows inflow feeder clouds beginning to develop along the southeast flank; (lower-left panel, 22:31 UTC) shows compact inflow feeder clouds associated with the storm’s intense inflow (arrow A), and cloud lines developing over the invigorated RFD (arrow B); and (lower-right panel 22:46 UTC) shows storm structure at the time an F5 tornado has been on the ground for 12 min.

A manuscript entitled “Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003″ by D.T. Lindsey and M.J. Bunkers (NOAA/NWS/UNR) was submitted to Weather and Forecasting .

The severe weather group has begun analyzing cases where satellite imagery was key in showing returning moisture prior to a severe convective event. The results of this study will be compiled for a VISIT training, and will be considered as a possible submission to Weather and Forecasting.

The routines used to convert GFS model data in grib format to a packed ASCII format for use in AMSU retrievals over tropical cyclones were installed on a recently acquired Linux system. Equivalent routines have been running on two UNIX machines for about 5 years.

A routine was written which automates the process of producing gif images from grads output of a tropical cyclone genesis forecasting routine.

A manuscript entitled “A note on the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetric tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU” has been accepted by Monthly Weather Review pending minor revisions. The paper discusses composite analyses that show as vertical wind shear increases the hurricane’s warm core structure and associated winds become shallower. Figure 1 shows the vertical wind shear based temperature/temperature anomaly composites and Figure 2 shows the composites of tangential wind.

Figure 1: Vertical wind shear based composites of temperature (contours) and temperature anomalies (shaded) in o C. Shown are; a) Low shear ( <3.8 ms -1 ), b) moderate shear (3.8 ms -1 > shear >6.8 ms -1 ), and c) high shear (shear >= 6.8 ms -1 ).

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2: Same as Figure 1 except for balanced tangential wind in ms -1 .

The Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) continues to outperform all other intensity guidance for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since a new scheme was made operational in June of 2003. Results (Storms 08W – 27W) of STIPS (STIP) and the Decay version of STIPS (STID) in terms of percent reduction in errors versus the purely statistical, climatology and persistence model ST5Dare shown in Figure 5. Forecasts that have less error than ST5D are considered skillful. The final year-end results along with a detailed description of the model are being prepared for publication in Weather and Forecasting and will be presented at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.

Figure 3.

Figure 3. Results of independent and homogeneous verification of STIPS forecasts. STIP is the version of the model that does not account for land falling decay and STID is an inland decay version. Results are presented as the percent reduction in absolute intensity forecast error over forecasts based on Climatology and Persistence.

A proposal was written and submitted to the Office of Naval Research to expand the STIPS model formulation to the Southern Hemisphere and North Indian Ocean .

Progress has been made on a project to create probabilities associated with tropical cyclone wind thresholds using a Monte Carlo approach in three tropical cyclone basins ( North Atlantic , Eastern North Pacific including the Central Pacific, and western North Pacific) has continued. Figure 6 shows a post-season example of probabilities associated with 34, 50, 64, and 100 kt wind radii associated with the forecast of Super Typhoon Maemi made 9/9/2003 at 06 UTC. Progress has included: 1) Software has been generalized so that it will work in all of these basins 2) refinement of the method by which the errors of track and intensity are sampled, and 3) the inter-basin generalization of a wind radii climatology and persistence model and refinement of the coefficients associated with this model. 4) Adaptive gridding to speed the MC calculations. These programs will be transitioned to NHC and JTWC for testing in the next quarter.

Figure 4.

Figure 4. Example of the MC based wind speed probabilities associated with the 34, 50, 64 and 100 kt winds based on a JTWC forecast made on 9/9/2003 at 06 UTC. The values of the probabilities (%) are indicated by the color bar at the bottom of each panel. To the right is information associated with the initial conditions associated with this forecasts.

A statistical tropical cyclone wind radii forecast tool has been developed as part of the Monte Carlo wind probability work sponsored by the Joint Hurricane test bed. The code produces forecast of 34, 50, 64, and 100 kt wind radii in four quadrants every 12 hours through 120 hours. It uses the initial conditions (persistence) along with a climatological vortex (climatology), which uses the track and intensity forecasts, to make its predictions. This code was supplied to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Naval research Laboratory in Monterey for operational implementation and evaluation. Such code provides much needed guidance for forecasting tropical cyclone wind radii and provides a benchmark for evaluation of skill for wind radii forecasting.

Progress has been made in moving two tropical cyclone products (AMSU intensity estimation, GOES-based tropical cyclone genesis) from experimental phase (run at CIRA) to the pre-operational phase (run at NESDIS) under funding from the NESDIS Product System Development and Implementation (PSDI) Program. Progress so far involves 1) the generalization of the GOES tropical cyclone genesis product to a continuous product, 2) the porting of Grib decoding software, and AMSU TC intensity estimates to Linux, 3) the verification of last years TC intensity estimations, 4) coordination with NESDIS/SAB/IPB personnel with various data and hardware needs, and 5) development of a detailed outline/flow chart of the implementation of these projects at NESDIS. These products will be transitioned to NESDIS operations in the next two quarters.

Hurricane Isabel Archive: Hurricane Isabel was a long duration Category 5 Atlantic hurricane that made landfall on the NC coast on 18 September 2003 as a category 2 storm. Seven consecutive days of SRSO (Super Rapid Scan Operations) GOES imagery have been processed to produce high resolution animations over the hurricane eye. Additional satellite data sets are being archived to supplement the SRSO data. A combined data set of 1 km resolution IR images has been compiled, with 92 Hurricane Isabel images during 5-19 September 2003. The data are comprised of images from 5 satellites — MODIS Aqua and Terra, and AVHRR NOAA-15, -16, and 17. A similar shorter period data set was archived for Hurricane Lili, 2002. MODIS files that can now be processed as MCIDAS images are available via ftp from the NASA EOS Gateway web site in three formats: 38-channel 1-km resolution, 7-channel 500-m, and 2-channel 250-m resolution. The nighttime passes have a reduced set of channels.

Characteristics of Atlantic Intense Hurricanes since 1995: What began as a ranking of intensification rates from the Best Track, comparison to Objective Dvorak Technique intensity, and a poster of IR images at maximum intensity, continued to be an expanding project. In addition to updating the files and making IR computations with the three 2003 intense hurricanes, measurements were made of IR derived RMW (radius of maximum wind), percent coverage of cold clouds, and pressure-wind relationships. A conference paper was accepted to the AMS Hurricane Conference, and provided a preliminary version of a journal article, describing this project.

Tropical Cyclone IR Archive: The data processing has been completed for the 2003 Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons, and all named storms have been added to the RAMM/CIRA Tropical Cyclone IR Archive. There were 16 named storms in both regions, with 3 intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic . This year, two additional data sets were added for Atlantic tropical depressions. Along with a few cases from other global regions, there were 42 storms and 12,479 images added to the archive for 2003. The complete archive now includes 9 Atlantic hurricane seasons, and a total of 291 tropical cyclones with over 79,000 images.

Galley proofs have been reviewed and returned to Weather and Forecasting for the article “Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery” by J. Weaver, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey , C Schmidt and E. Prins.

The new VISIT session being planned for winter weather will include several aspects of utilizing satellite imagery to identify precipitating regions of extratropical cyclones.

A two-dimensional model obtained from Vic Ooyama (formerly of the Hurricane Research Division) is being modified for use in the study of mid-latitude fronts. Specifically, work on including a background deformation field and temperature gradient is currently in progress.

Code which creates McIDAS AREA files from simulated GOES 10.7 : m imagery created with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System output has been updated. A new, improved routine which maps the model output into a satellite projection has been implemented. In addition, the code now can create McIDAS area files of simulated derived product imagery such as CAPE , total precipitable water, and lifted index. AREA files have been created for; 1) An idealized simulation of a severe thunderstorm was using a horizontal grid spacing of 400m (Figure 1), and 2) a simulation of the 12 February 2003 lake effect snow event (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Single frame from thunderstorm simulation using a horizontal grid spacing of 400m. Features which are observable include an overshooting top, an enhanced-V signature, a low-level outflow boundary/flanking line, and a cooling of the ground behind the storm.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2. A simulation of the 12 February 2003 lake effect snow event showing numerous lake effect snow bands generated by the Great Lakes .

A simulation of the quantization noise has been made for GOES-R band 7 at 3.9 µm, the band most susceptible to noise at cold cloud-top temperatures (Figure 3). The representation of radiances by a fixed bit-depth scale limits the resulting temperature resolution at low temperatures, especially when the scale is required to measure high temperatures (for fire detection) at the same time. Preliminary results have been shared with T. Schmit at NESDIS/ORA/ASPT. Further results will be prepared for presentation at the GOES User’s Conference in Boulder CO in May.

Figure 3

Figure 3. An example of temperature quantization “noise” for GOES-R band-7 (3.9 µm) as represented by a 12-bit (0-4095) scale with the maximum radiance at 375 K. The resulting “noise” at 200 K cloud-tops is 7.5 K, or 4.9 K at 205 K, or 3.3 K at 210 K.

The May 8, 2003 severe weather event was simulated using a numerical cloud model. Output from the simulation was used as input to an Observational Operator from which GOES 10.7 µm brightness temperatures were simulated. In addition, several DPI products were developed including; lifted index (LI), precipitable water (PW, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and Convective Inhibition (CIN). Further, each dpi product was produced with five different footprint sizes: 50 km x 50 km, 30 km x 30 km, 10 km x 10km, 4 km x 4 km, and 1 km x 1 km. This work is part of the demonstration portion of the GOES-R and NPOESS projects.

Figure 4: Simulated GOES 10.7 µm brightness temperatures for the severe weather event which occurred on 8 May 2003.

Click on images to start simulation.

Figure 5. Simulation of the Convective Available Potential Energy ( CAPE ) DPI for the severe weather event which occurred on 8 May 2003 for various resolutions as indicated on the panels (50km, 30km, 10km, and 4km).

Figure 6. Simulation of the CAPE DPI for the severe weather event which occurred on 8 May 2003. The two-panel presentation compares the 4km with the 1km resolution output.

The collection of satellite data for GOES-R Risk Reduction has been largely completed for the five case studies in CIRA’s assigned projects. Satellite data sets include GOES Imager and Sounder, AVHRR (NOAA-15, 16, and 17), MODIS (Terra and Aqua), and AIRS (Aqua) data. Most of the data are accompanied by browse images that provide quick views of the available data. A mass storage device is used to keep track of, and allow multiple users access to, all the data and products generated for this study. This data includes over 3,000 data files. The information describing these datasets is stored in the database and is available online via the Dynamic-HTML Web page:

http://shaula.cira.colostate.edu/goesr/inventory.asp

Improvements continue on the prototype RAMSDIS unit designed for polar-orbiting satellite data. The unit now ingests 5-minute MODIS granules (from both the EOS Terra and Aqua satellites) as provided by the NOAA server. A single-frame image shows MODIS water vapor band-28 over the entire world (in a Mercator projection) generated by overlaying newer images on top of older images to create this composite. Figure 1 is a loop that illustrates how the 5-minute MODIS granules from both satellites are paired in time and remapped into the Mercator projection before they are overlaid onto the composite (example shown in Figure 2).

Figure 1

Figure 1. Animated loop of time-paired 5-minute EOS Terra and Aqua MODIS granules mapped into a Mercator projection before becoming part of Figure 1. Granules are collected every 5 minutes indicating the orbits of the two satellites, but some longer gaps exist in the time sequence due to image collection and processing delays.

Click on image to start loop.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Composite image of MODIS water vapor band-28 for the entire world in a Mercator projection.

Software has been written to rotate multi-band satellite images for McIDAS display. This program was needed for MODIS and AVHRR images that appear “upside-down” when displayed without re-mapping. Although re-mapping into a desired projection is always possible, a simple image rotation (flipping both the lines and the elements) was needed to preserve the original resolution of the MODIS imagery without distortion. The program also rotates and rewrites the image navigation block so that image mapping is preserved. The program is being used to prepare materials for GOES-R Risk Reduction activities.

Software has been written to reduce the spatial resolution (by pixel averaging) of multi-band satellite images for McIDAS display. This program is being applied to MODIS and AVHRR images that are higher resolution than current and future GOES imagery. Although a single-band output version of this program (AVGI) is available within McIDAS, this program does the pixel averaging on multi-band imagery, while preserving the multi-band nature of the image. It is also unlike the IMGCOPY command that reduces the image resolution by sampling (and not averaging) of pixels. The program is being used to prepare material for GOES-R Risk Reduction activities, by showing the true effect of increased spatial resolution of GOES-R data compared to current GOES imagery.

Subsequent to publication of NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 115 , “Imager and Sounder Radiance and Product Validations for the GOES-12 Science Test” additional estimates of detector-to-detector striping have been made using off-earth space-view measurements obtained during the GOES-12 Science Test in the fall of 2002. The additional analyses are available at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/goesm/GOES_12_Science_Test_Report.htm

The new results show lower striping than those obtained from on-earth, potentially cloud-contaminated measurements. It was also determined that striping is hard to characterize by a single number for many GOES bands, as it appears to be highly data dependent. This is seen in the large differences between striping estimates from east and west limb measurements on different test days.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2003, January and February 2004.

Processing of wind regime products is on schedule. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 (visible) and channel 4 for November and December 2003 and January 2004 have been completed. Six year, monthly combined visible products have also been completed for these months.

A new algorithm was developed for producing cloud/no cloud images by differencing imager channels 2 and 4. This product will be needed for fog climatologies over the San Francisco Bay area.

Several satellite data sets have been obtained for selected case studies chosen for CIRA’s GOES-R Risk Reduction activities. Satellite data sets include GOES Imager, AIRS, MODIS, and AVHRR. One of the cases chosen is the 12-14 Feb 2003 Lake Effect Snow event that affected both Lake Huron and Lake Ontario regions significantly.

M. DeMaria presented a seminar entitled “Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasting: Finding the Needle in the Haystack” at the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science on March 12.

D. Hillger gave a seminar to CIRA on 27 January, utilizing the same material he recently presented at Colorado State University’s Professional Development Institute. The seminar, entitled “Metric Transition in the United States: Where we are, and where we are headed!”

Visitors:

Meetings/Conferences/Workshops:

The VISIT team continues its collaboration with COMET, CIMSS, and the NWS Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman , OK in the development of WTDB’s Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC) for severe weather.

D. Molenar and H. Gosden are representing CoRP and CIRA/RAMM in a series of meetings of the ORA/STAR Web Page Committee. The goal of the committee is to standardize division and branch web pages, using the NESDIS web page as a template.

The VISIT team continues its collaboration with various NWS forecast offices in the development of a new Winter Weather teletraining session. The new session will be approximately 3-hour long (taught in two parts) and will cover numerous winter weather topics from regions across the continental United States.

Brazil Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter

Japanese Interaction:

A two-part paper describing the AMSU 3-D wind retrieval algorithm and validation against Quikscat data is being prepared in collaboration with K. Bessho of the JMA/MRI.

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imagery for December 2003 through February 2004 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados . The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1997-2004 determined from a 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1997-2004 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica .

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December – February 1998 – 2004 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December – February of 1998 – 2004 for Barbados .

The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

Recent improvements in the Internet connections in Barbados have allowed the RMTC to directly ingest GOES-12 imagery via a RAMSDIS system from the RAMM server at NESDIS. Prior to this, they were looking at imagery available on the web or downloading digital data from CIRA through ftp. The imagery will be particularly useful for this semester’s Satellite Meteorology course.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)

SICA Project:

The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate. The web page continues to be useful as a backup for the imagery when the server in Costa Rica goes down. The site can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html

A request for NESDIS participation in an upcoming WMO training event in Argentina was forwarded to RAMMB. Arrangements are being made for Daniel Lindsey from CIRA to attend this training to provide lectures on satellite meteorology and distance learning techniques. D. Lindsey will travel to Argentina for about one week in May and deliver three 50-minute lectures.

The manuscript entitled, “Microscale Aspects of Rainfall Patterns as Measured by a Local Volunteer Network” by N. Doesken, J. Weaver and M. Osecky has been accepted by National Weather Digest contingent on a number of revisions being completed. N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center) is supervising this process.

J. Weaver is working on an article titled “Colorado ‘s Severe Downslope Windstorms” for the Colorado Climate Newsletter/Magazine.

The manuscript “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) has been tentatively scheduled for the April or June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting.

A new web server has been ordered to facilitate transfer of the RAMM home page from the CIRA server. Products and services provided will be consolidated to this one server, and a RAMM supported ftp site and archive will be maintained.

An over-haul of the previous Cyclogenesis page is completed. A “new look” for the overall RAMM Branch web page is being featured/tested as well. The web page can be viewed here:

http://shaula.cira.colostate.edu/gparm/genesis.asp

D. Molenar met with FSL and COMET staff to discuss options for improving CIRA AWIPS capabilities. At issue are the difficulties in obtaining the most recent AWIPS software, the manpower requirements for installing and maintaining each build due to CIRA’s unique configuration, and whether it is cost effective for CIRA to install a NOAAPORT receive system. Several options, including accessing already processed NOAAPORT data from a COMET server, will be evaluated. The possibility of CIRA functioning as a satellite application beta test site in exchange for obtaining the most recent AWIPS software from FSL was also discussed, and will be further investigated through appropriate CIRA and FSL channels.

Implementation of NOAAPORT point data ingest for D2D 5.2.2 via LDM has been completed. This should facilitate case study archival as this data is in the newer D2D format, and should help transition to newer versions of WES. Efforts are underway to test ftp of gridded data from a COMET server.

A McIDAS program which plots a user-defined wind barb at the cursor location has been written for use on CIRA/RAMM’s tropical RAMSDIS. The program can be used for both real time and past events.

Tropical RAMSDIS is currently being ported over to the Linux operating system.  Hopefully this will provide a more stable environment to handle the large number of products displayed on this system.  Several new products will also be added.  Once completed, we will upgrade HRD’s system to the same configuration in preparation for the 2004 hurricane season.

A version of RAMSDIS has been tested and released for the Linux operating system.  This change will provide a dependable platform while also decreasing the cost of installation versus the Windows platform.  Modified for this version include two new products, visible/shortwave albedo and shortwave IR albedo.  Some enhancements were also made to the graphical user interface and some miscellaneous bugs fixed.

An article has been submitted for the CIRA Magazine entitled “National and International Training Activities at CIRA.” by Bernadette Connell, Dan Bikos, Dan Lindsey, John Weaver, and Tony Mostek.

During this quarter 35 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered, 663 students from 247 NWS offices participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter:

•  Mesoscale Convective Vortices (taught by Scott Lindstrom of CIMSS). For more info see: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mcv.html

•  Applying the Ten principles of climate monitoring in NWS field operations. This session is taught by Tim Own (NESDIS/NCDC) and Robert Leffler (NWS Climate Services Division). For more info see: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/monitoring.html

A number of winter weather cases have been archived recently for development of a training session that deals with using satellite imagery as a tool for forecasting/nowcasting winter storms. Work has begun analyzing some of the cases to determine which ones should be used for a future teletraining session.

Work has begun on a new teletraining session on QuikSCAT winds. QuikSCAT data will be included in the next AWIPS release (OB3 [i.e., Operational Build 3]). The session will provide some introductory material, including how the wind retrievals are performed, as well as some examples showing the usefulness of QuikSCAT both in the tropics and the mid-latitudes.

A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999. As of March 22, the total is 12,542 certificates.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 22, 2004. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

The following bar graph is a compilation of evaluations that are sent to the individual who signed up for each VISIT training session. They are asked to respond with a number ranging from 1 through 5 where 1 means strongly disagree to 5 which means strongly agree. The questions asked are:

1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.

2) The content of the session was appropriate.

3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.

4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.

5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me involved in the session and test my learning.

6) The instructor explained the material clearly.

7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.

8) The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are directly applicable to my job

9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

The total number of responses to each question are listed below:

The graph shows that the responses are overwhelmingly positive for each category.

The following map shows how many VISIT teletraining sessions have been completed by each NWS WFO as well as CWSU and national centers:

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Boundary Detection: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Cyclogenesis: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow I (basic): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Lightning Meteorology II: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

Mesoscale Anal. of Conv. Wx. using GOES RSO: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

NDIC: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web. The downloadable files can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

and selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing. Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.

J. Weaver presented a talk entitled “New focuses in satellite training” at the COMET Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction (COMAP) Course in Boulder, Colorado.

J. Weaver gave presentations at four separate Distance Learning Operations Course (DLOC) workshops at COMET in Boulder, Colorado this quarter.

J. Weaver met with staff from the Fort Collins Office of Emergency Management to provide both severe weather training, and information on plume-driven wildland fires. He also distributed some computer-based training material, and a large number of NOAA brochures.

Two VISITview exercises using GOES satellite Imagery from the University of Wisconsin and voice via Yahoo messenger were coordinated by the WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team. There were participants from the US: CIRA and COMET in Colorado, and CIMSS in Wisconsin; as well as outside the US: Australia, Barbados, Brazil, Costa Rica, Cuba, Honduras, Martinique, and Peru. Although not all the participants had headphones and microphones, they were able to view the satellite imagery and make written comments.

Colorado State University’s Office of Instructional Services offers its Professional Development Institute (PDI) each January during the break between semesters, as a means to share knowledge between CSU faculty and staff. This year D. Hillger, as Webmaster for the U.S. Metric Association, gave an hour talk entitled “Metric Transition in the United States: Where we are, and where we are headed!” Hillger gave a seminar to CIRA on 27 January, utilizing the same material. The talk was well attended and invoked many questions and discussion from the audience. A second shorter presentation on correct usage of SI-metric for meteorologists followed the main presentation.

Published: 
DeMuth, J. L., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2004: Validation of an advanced microwave sounder unit (AMSU) tropical cyclone intensity and size estimation algorithm, J. App. Met., 43, 282-296.

Lindsey, D.T., D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and A. Mostek, 2004:  The VISIT Program — Transferring Research to Operations.  20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting , 11-15 January, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 19.1. 

Lindsey, D.T., D. Bikos, A. Mostek, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, J.F. Weaver, B.N. Grant, and J. LaDue, 2004:  VISIT  — Providing Teletraining for Operational Forecasters.  13th Symposium on Education , 11-15 January, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., paper 3.2. 

Accepted: 

Berg, R., C. Sisko, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  High resolution SST in the SHIPS model: improving operational guidance of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Bessho, K. M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and J. Demuth, 2004:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Black, M.L., J.P. Kossin, W.H. Schubert, C.S. Velden, J.P. Dunion, S.D. Aberson, P.G. Black, and R.M. Zehr, 2004:  Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003): A comparison of satellite, radar, and photographic observations.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Cecil, D., T.A. Jones, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

DeMaria, M., 2004:  50 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Modeling.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

DeMaria, M., C.W. Anderson, J.A. Knaff, and B.H. Connell, 2004:  A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, J.F.W. Purdom, R.M. Zehr, H. Gosden, D.L. Watson, J.A. Knaff, D.L. Lindsey, D.E. Bikos, 2004:  Advance Mesoscale Product Development for GOES-R Using  Operational and Experimental Satellite Observations.  3rd GOES Users Conference . 10-13 May, Broomfield, CO. 

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, J.F. Dostalek, and K. Mueller, 2004:  Improvements in  Deterministic and Probablistic Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Predictions.  58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference , 1-5 March, Charleston, SC. 

Dostalek, J.F., J.F. Weaver, and L. Phillips, 2003:  Noteworthy aspects of a severe left moving thunderstorm of 25 May 1999.  Wea. and Forecasting. 

Gentemann, C., M. DeMaria and F.J. Wentz, 2004:  Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Goni, G.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Trinanes, and P.G. Black, 2004:  Testing global estimates of the tropical cyclone heat potential fields to improve hurricane intensification prediction. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Grasso, L.D., and T.J. Greenwald, 2003:  Analysis of 10.7 um brightness temperatures of a simulated thunderstorm with two-moment microphysics. Mon. Wea. Review. 

Grasso, L.D. , M. Sengupta, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, J.F. Dostalek and M. DeMaria, 2004:    Applications of Simulated GOES-R Observations for Advance Product Development for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting.  3rd GOES Users Conference . 10-13 May, Broomfield, CO. 

Gross, J.M., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and C.R. Sampson, 2004:  A New Method for Determining Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecast Probabilities. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 2004: Estimating the probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and K. Mueller, 2004:  Methods to Estimate and Predict Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure:  Recent Developments and Future Goals.  58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference , 1-5 March, Charleston, SC. 

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  An introduction to the statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme (STIPS).  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Kossin, J.P., W.H. Schubert, C.S. Velden, M.L. Black, P. Black, R.M. Zehr, S.D. Aberson, and J.P. Dunion, 2004:  Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003).  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Nolan, D., and L.D. Grasso , 2003:  Nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional perturbations to balanced, hurricane-like vortices.  Part II.  Symmetric response and nonlinear simulations.  J. of the Atmospheric Sciences. 

Tuleya, R., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2004:  Evaulation of rainfall forecasts from the operational GFDL hurricane model. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Velden, C., J. P. Kossin, T. L. Olander, D. Herndon, A. J. Wimmers, R. Wacker, R. T. Edson, J. D. Hawkins, K. F. Brueske, B.W. Kabat, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  Toward an objective satellite-based algorithm to provide real-time estimates of TC intensity using integrated multispectral (IR and MW) observations. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Weaver, J.F., and D.T. Lindsey, 2004: Some frequently overlooked visual severe thunderstorm 
characteristics observed on GOES imagery &ndash; a topic for future research. Mon. Wea. Rev. 

Weaver, J.F., D.T. Lindsey, D.E. Bikos , C.C. Schmidt, and E. Prins, 2003:  Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery. Wea. and Forecasting. 

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  Atlantic Intense Hurricanes, 1995-2003 – Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL. 

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  The Objective Dvorak Technique – Historical Perspective.  Special Session on the Dvorak Technique: A 30-year test of time.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , May 3-7, 2004, Miami, FL. 

Submitted: 

DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2004:  Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS).  Weather and Forecasting. 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2004:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest. 

Hodanish, S., R. Holle, and D.T. Lindsey, 2004:  A small updraft producing a fatal lightning flash.  Wea. and Forecasting. 

Knaff, J.A. , S.A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, J.L. Demuth, 2004:  A Note on the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU.  Mon. Wea. Rev. 

Lindsey, D.T. and M.J. Bunkers, 2004:  Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003.  Wea. and Forecasting . 

Reviews: 

M. DeMaria reviewed a manuscript for the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences which described a hurricane case study analysis from the fourth Convection and Mesoscale Experiment (CAMEX-4). 

A Linux replacement for the HP data ingest/server (Ulysses) has been procured. Transition of McIDAS applications to the Linux box is underway

The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere group has hired Kevin Micke to work with the RAMM Team. He has interned with CIRA and has proven to be a valuable member for the infrastructure group. His starting date was March 29, 2004.

Input was provided for the annual reviews of all RAMM CIRA employees.

D. Molenar has completed the performance evaluation and cost/benefit analysis for latest federal and state procurement. This completes the 2-year team hardware upgrade plan. The effort was coordinated with ORA staff to insure the best utilization of funds.

An HP Color Laser Jet 4600n printer has been purchased and configured for the RAMM Team; this printer replaces the previous model which has been out of order for a few months.

Two flash-drives consisting of 512MB and 256MB capacity were purchased for the VISIT Project. The flash drives are becoming the standard for transferring data between computers, replacing the 3-1/2 inch diskettes.