Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Work continues on a satellite only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. This work combines in a specially developed analysis (cylindrical, variational) observations from feature tracked winds, SSMI winds, Quickscat winds, AMSU-derived 2-d wind fields, and IR-derived winds. The key ingredient is the recent development of an IR-based method to predict the winds associated with the core of the tropical cyclone. The combined analyses are run in real-time while the analysis method is improved. The current version uses a standard flight-level to surface wind correction over water, and decreases (turns) these winds an additional 20% (20 degrees) over land. An example of wind analyses from Tropical Cyclone Glenda (SH202006) just before landfall with an estimated intensity of 105 kt (03/30/06 at 06 UTC) is shown in Figure 1. Results of this scheme were presented at the AMS satellite conference in January. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1a

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Figure 1: Satellite-only surface wind analysis and associated input data (AMSU 2-d non-linear balance winds, cloud/feature tracked winds, IR-derived winds, and QuikScat) for the case of Tropical Cyclone Glenda near the time of landfall in Western Australia on March 30, 2006 at 0600UTC. Wind radii are given at the bottom of the figure.

The pressure vs. wind relationships of tropical cyclones have been re-evaluated using the last 15 years of tropical cyclone best track wind estimates and aircraft MSLP values to assess the relative importance of latitude, environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size. Both environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size are determined from numerical analyses and appear to have no dependency on the analysis used (NOGAPS, GFS, NCEP-Reanalysis). Findings suggest that all of these factors can be used to reduce the scatter in the current pressure wind relationships. Larger and higher latitude storms produce lower MSLP for the same maximum wind speed. Environmental pressure is additive, or in other words storms occurring in a higher pressure environment have higher MSLP. Relationships were developed to estimated the wind from quality pressure observations and to estimate the pressure given a good estimate of the maximum 10-m, 1-minute sustained wind. These relationships can be utilized in operational tropical cyclone centers throughout the world and for reanalysis of past tropical cyclone events. Maximum surface winds speeds estimated from aircraft pressures for the Atlantic and E. Pacific tropical cyclones in 2005 are compared with the preliminary best track intensities in Figure 2. The paper describing this algorithm was accepted to Weather and Forecasting pending revisions. Furthermore, a conference paper discussing its application to historical tropical cyclone data in the western North Pacific has been submitted. (J. Knaff)

Figure 2: Scatter diagram of the independent predicted values of V max using aircraft pressures with this new methodology shown as black boxes and those predicted using the Dvorak pressure wind relationship (crosses) vs. observed values of V max from the final best track. Click on image to enlarge.

A paper describing the statistical tropical cyclone wind radii prediction schemes used at the National Hurricane Center and the DOD Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting pending revisions. Two models based on climatology and the persistence of initial conditions are described. One model makes use of parametric vortex to make predictions while the other uses multiple linear regressions. Both produce remarkably similar results. See previous quarterly reports for examples. (J. Knaff)

Verification procedures have been developed and coded for the tropical cyclone wind probability model – a Joint Hurricane Testbed project. These procedures were tested using an expanded set of coastal watch/warning points for time periods when hurricane warnings were in place in 2004 and 2005. The verification showed the 64-kt wind probability product is skillful with Brier Skill Scores 26% better than the official deterministic forecast, and a Relative operating characteristics Skill Score of 88%. Further examination of the probabilities showed that they were well calibrated, though they produced a slight under forecast for this dataset. While the warning areas are decreasing and lead times are increasing since 2000, the verification showed that the area warned could be decrease by using the probability model because warnings are often left in place too long, once the threat has diminished (i.e., the probabilities are near 0%). The verification was presented at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in Mobile , AL and the presentation can be viewed at http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc06/Presentations/04%20session4%20JHT/s4-07Knaff_IHC.ppt

Automated routines to clear the cloudy areas from GOES Channel 2 (3.9 um) imagery over a large area of the Tropical Atlantic have been developed. These will be used to create a 5-day SST product to better examine the changes in SSTs in this region. (J. Knaff)

The tropical cyclone maximum intensity climatology for the western North Pacific was reanalyzed using a recently developed wind-pressure relationship. Results indicate that the routine use of the Atkinson and Holliday (1977) wind- pressure relationship has resulted in a substantial intensity bias that can explain much of the climatological intensity trends in this region (Figure 3). This work will be presented at the upcoming AMS 27 th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology. Final results as well as an explanation for the observed bias will be submitted to the Journal of Climate . (J. Knaff)

Figure 3. The trend in the number of Safir-Simpson Category 3, 4 and 5 tropical cyclones (i.e., those of major hurricane strength) in the western North Pacific in the Best Track (BT) and following a reanalysis that makes use of the observed MSLP (1966-1987) in a newly developed wind-pressure relationship (reanalysis). Results show that much of the upward trend can be explained by the use of the Atkinson and Holliday wind-pressure relationship (1974-1987), which underestimated the maximum surface winds when aircraft reconnaissance was available.

Data files have been updated with satellite, aircraft, and Best Track information on the seven Atlantic intense hurricanes from 2005. The CIRA version of the Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT) has been run for these seven cases. A draft of a paper, “Atlantic Intense Hurricanes – Characteristics Based on Satellite, Aircraft, and Best Track Data” has undergone internal review, and is being revised to include the 2005 data. (R. Zehr)

A new project documenting a systematic approach to satellite applications for tropical cyclogenesis analysis, is the topic of a conference paper submitted for the upcoming AMS Hurricane Conference, in Monterey , CA. April 24-28, 2006. A case study of Hurricane Rita’s pre-tropical storm stages has been completed. (R. Zehr)

Synthetic GOESR-ABI 10.35 µm imagery has been re-created from an updated simulation of hurricane Lili. Synthetic images were created every fifteen minutes with a horizontal footprint of 2 km over a 12 hour period. These images will be treated as observations and will be used in an assimilation experiment of hurricane Lili. (L. Grasso and D. Zupanski).

Simulated three dimensional fields of u, v, w, t and water vapor at a given time from hurricane Lili were saved from the grid with 2 km horizontal grid spacings. These grid spacings approximate the footprint of GOES-R ABI. This output will then be degraded to larger footprint sizes to test pressure retrieval algorithms. (L. Grasso and M. DeMaria).

A collection of full resolution (temporal, spectral, and spatial) Meteosat Second Generation data was collected over the tropical Atlantic 1 June – 3 December for future satellite applications. These are being written to DVD for future use.

An automated collection of 1 km, Mercator, IR imagery over Global tropical cyclones begun last quarter has been expanded to collect IR imagery at 1 km, 2 km, and 4 km resolution as well as visible imagery at 1 km and 0.5 km (MODIS only). At present NOAA Limited Area Coverage (LAC) and High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT), and NASA Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiomenter (MODIS) data are accessed and utilized. This imagery will be utilized to study the effects of increased resolution on tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithms. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1a

Click on images to enlarge

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Figure 1a-e: Example of 1-km, 2-km and 4-km IR imagery and 1 km and 500 km visible imagery collected over Tropical Cyclone Larry on 19 March at 0250 UTC. This imagery that is being collected for future risk reduction activities. Tropical cyclone SH1706 on 19 March 2006 at 0600 UTC had an intensity of 75 kt and was rapidly intensifying.

Collection and analysis continues with 1-km resolution IR images of hurricanes from AVHRR and MODIS. Previous studies have been summarized and future studies planned on the impact of resolution on satellite intensity analysis. An abstract for a poster presentation with Mark DeMaria and John Beven (Tropical Prediction Center) was submitted to the upcoming GOES-R User’s Conference, Broomfield, CO, May 1-3, 2006. (R. Zehr)

AIRS Standard Retrieval HDF files have been downloaded from the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) for three hurricanes for the 2002 and 2003 hurricane seasons. The DAAC help desk was notified of problems with the first files downloaded and they proceeded to solve those problems before further files were captured. The AIRS retrievals contain data at 28 levels which will be compared to Global Positioning System (GPS) soundings taken during aircraft reconnaissance flights of the hurricanes in question. (D. Hillger, R. DeMaria)

Work with the Naval Research Laboratory on the development of a Consensus (5 members)/Ensemble (5 members) (or Consemble) tropical cyclone intensity prediction system continues. Forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity change are created using the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Forecasts are provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center so that they can be utilized in their forecasting activities. Results in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that the consemble significantly improves forecasts in the 48-72 hour forecast time period. In the Southern Hemisphere these forecast are the first to product skillful intensity forecasts in this region of the world. (J. Knaff)

A note discussing the pitfalls of selective consensus forecasting in tropical cyclone track forecasting has been prepared for publication with personnel from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey . Selective consensus forecasting refers to the process of a forecaster removing a member or members from a consensus of global tropical cyclone tracks to form a new consensus forecast. The selective consensus was compared to a consensus created from the global models. The overall results for the 2000 through 2005 seasons show that the use of selective consensus produces slightly less skillful forecasts and that as the use of selective consensus increases forecast skill decreases, suggesting over use will deteriorate the final forecasts. (J. Knaff)

A technical comment discussing issues contained in the recent Science paper Webster et al. (2005) discussing trends in tropical cyclone intensity trends was submitted to Science. The note was rejected by one of the reviewers and is being revised for the Journal of Climate . (J. Knaff)

A 3-color dust product has been set up for current MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) imagery. The dust product uses software developed to create McIDAS-formatted AREA files from three-color imagery. The 3-color product uses a MSG image combination suggested by Daniel Rosenfeld of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. That combination of three MSG IR bands (8.7 µm, 10.8 µm, and 12.0 µm) and band differences, was coded into McIDAS commands and has been running on a MSG RAMSDIS used to test such products for eventual GOES-R applications. The product has been running for some time, and the attached loop shows the best example to date (that happened to be observed) of a large dust cloud and dust being caught up into a low pressure center, dragging the dust from Libya into the Mediterranean . Dust is pinkish-red, thicker clouds are yellowish-green, and cloud-free areas area light blue. This product will be used to monitor dust off of west Africa during the next hurricane season. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: An image loop created from McIDAS AREA files of a three-color dust product. This example shows a large dust cloud over Libya and dust being drawn into a low pressure center over the Mediterranean . Dust is pinkish-red, thicker clouds are yellowish-green, and cloud-free areas are light blue. Note that occasional flashes of contrasting colors are due to the way McIDAS deals with too many colors. A solution for that problem is currently being tested. [Click on the image to start the loop.]

The 3-color product generation routine used for the dust product loop has now been improved, to eliminate a color-shift problem. The improvement required a reduction from 256 colors to 128 colors, to compensate for the occasional color shifts that McIDAS imposes on all 256-color images. That color shift resulted in strongly-contrasting colors appearing in the 3-color image, especially associated with the color tables needed for these three-color products. The problem was more noticeable when an image loop was created from the 3-color product. By reducing to 128 colors, and each color now representing two 8-bit count values, the occasional color shifts are no longer a problem. See the attached two figures, utilizing MSG full-disk imagery, for examples of the 256 and 128-color versions, respectively. Viewers will be hard pressed to see differences in the images unless they are directly compared. The more noticeable change is in the colored bar at the bottom of the image, with slightly larger color bins for the reduced-color version. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1a: A 3-color McIDAS AREA created from three separate (red, green, and blue) McIDAS AREA files. This example shows the MSG “natural” color product created from MSG bands 3, 2, and 1, respectively. This version uses all 256 possible colors allowed on 8-bit displays.

Figure 1b: Same as Figure 1a, except utilizing only 128 different colors. Note the elimination of the narrowest color bins in the color bar at the bottom of the image. There are also subtle differences in the image that can be seen if the user were to directly compare the two images.

Two other examples of the 3-color dust product from real-time MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) imagery have been captured. The dust product uses software developed to create McIDAS-formatted AREA files from three images assigned as the red, green, and blue components. In this case the product is a second-order combination, via band differencing, of three MSG IR bands (8.7 µm, 10.8 µm, and 12.0 µm). These examples utilize software that was improved to eliminate color-flickering associated with too many colors, and a second problem caused by saturated pixels in the inputs to the 3-color algorithm. The first loop is a good example of a widespread dust outbreak associated with a cold front moving south across most of northern Africa . The second loop is an example of dust being drawn into a low pressure center tracking to the east, ingesting dust from off of West Africa . Dust is pinkish-red, thicker clouds are yellowish-green, and cloud-free areas area light blue. This dust product is being developed as part of GOES-R Risk Reduction activities. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1a: An image loop created from McIDAS AREA files of a thee-color dust product. This example shows a widespread dust outbreak associated with a cold front moving south across most of northern Africa . Dust is pinkish-red, thicker clouds are yellowish-green, and cloud-free areas are light blue. [Click on the image to start the loop.]

Figure 1b: As in Figure 1a, but this example shows a low pressure center tracking to the east, ingesting dust from off of West Africa . [Click on the image to start the loop.]

Synthetic GOESR-ABI images from the simulation of the 8 May 2003 severe weather case have been used to develop new products. Specifically, preliminary development of channel differencing between 6.185 µm, 10.35 µm, and 12.3 µm has begun. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, and B. Connell)

A web page was developed to display the mesoscale convective system (MCS) index which was developed by Israel Jirak of Colorado State University. (H. Gosden, D. Lindsey, I. Jirak) (H. Gosden)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for November and December 2005.  Processing is behind schedule, but should be caught up by next quarter. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for October, November and December 2005 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for these months and channels.  (C. Combs)

Hired new student hourly to replace departing hourly for cloud composite work.  Training is in progress. (C. Combs)

Work on the new cloud climatology project with Eureka , CA continues. Data processing for the Eureka sector for July 1999-2005 is complete and August 1999-2005 nearly complete. Three time series of cloud composites(low, high and all) have been derived from the 10 µm channel for July 1999-2005.   Examples from the results have been shared with the Eureka , CA  National Weather Service (NWS) office (figures 1 and 2). (C. Combs)

Figure 1: Low cloud composite for July 1999-2005 for 2200 UTC (3 pm local)

Figure 2: Low cloud composite for July 1999-2005 for 1000 UTC (3 am local)

An experimental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index has been developed in collaboration with Israel Jirak (Dept. of Atmos. Sci., CSU). This automated product predicts areas supportive of MCS formation and organization. It utilizes NAM model output, and GOES IR satellite data is currently used on the webpage and will be used for validating the product. The webpage is: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/mcsindex/mcsindex.asp . The Figure below shows an example MCS Index forecast. (D. Lindsey)

MCS Index forecast from 12Z on 29 March 2006, valid at 09Z on 30 March 2006.

Work is nearly complete on an ice cloud effective radius retrieval product. This uses the GOES 3.9 µm and 10.7 µm channels, and is valid for optically thick clouds composed of ice crystals, which includes thunderstorm tops. Results from Lindsey et al. (2006, mentioned below) show a correlation between small thunderstorm top ice crystal size and updraft strength, so a second product will be created taking advantage of this relationship. (D. Lindsey)

Employing a method originally developed for use with tropical cyclones, a wind retrieval technique using vertical temperature profiles derived from radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) is being developed for the polar regions. With a boundary condition given by a 100-hPa height field from the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis, the temperature profiles are used in the downward integration of the hydrostatic equation to compute height as a function of pressure. A balance condition is then applied to compute the stream function, from which the u- and v-components of the non-divergent wind can be evaluated.

As a first step, geostrophic balance was assumed in the derivation of the wind field. Fig. 1 shows the bias and rmse of the geostrophic wind speed derived using the AMSU technique when compared to the actual wind speed measured by radiosondes launched from various Arctic stations during a portion of December 2004. The bias and rmse are minimized at the levels where the wind is approximately in geostrophic balance. The two areas where this occurs are in the middle troposphere and in the stratosphere. Near the surface and near the jet level, the geostrophic wind is not as good an approximation, and the bias and rmse are increased. These two areas are also regions of the atmosphere where the retrieval of temperature by satellite is less accurate. For the free atmosphere overall, the bias is under 3 m s -1 and the rmse is under 7 m s -1 .

The next step was to solve the linear balance equation to retrieve the wind field. Fig.1 also shows the statistics for the comparison between the linear balance winds and the winds measured by radiosonde. The use of the linear balance results in typical improvements in the bias and rmse of around 0.5 ms -1 over the geostrophic balance.

In the future, the nonlinear balance equation will be solved; this should further increase the accuracy of the retrieved wind field. (J. Dostalek and M. DeMaria)

Figure 1. Bias (solid) and rmse (dashed) of retrieved winds as compared to winds measured from radiosonde. The black lines are for the geostrophic winds and the red lines are for the linear balance winds. The numbers along the vertical axis on the right-hand side are the number of comparisons for each level.

Programs running on Linux: The McIDAS programs used to create synthetic satellite imagery were successfully run on a Linux machine. They can also be run in a Unix or Windows environment. The ingest of the Advanced Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) was moved to a Linux machine from a Unix machine. The ATOVS data are being ingested as part of the study of mid latitude cyclones in the northeast Pacific. (J. Dostalek)

An updated RAMS run was performed to produce synthetic geostationary images of the simulated lake effect snow event of 12 February 2003 and the simulated severe weather event of 8 May 2003. Figures 1 and 2 show the nine simulated infrared wavelengths (~2 km footprint) for a given time of the model runs. This work is part of the GOES-R risk reduction plan. The creation of simulated imagery allows researchers to work with data similar to that which will come from the satellite itself, permitting a “jump start” to the use of the satellite for mesoscale analysis and forecasting. (L. Grasso, J. Dostalek, and D. Lindsey)

Fig. 1. Synthetic geostationary images at 9 infrared wavelengths from a RAMS simulation of the 12 February 2003 lake effect snow event.

Fig.2. Synthetic geostationary images at 9 infrared wavelengths from a RAMS simulation of the 8 May 2003 severe weather event.

An undesirable feature has been detected in the three simulations that are being used to create synthetic GOESR-ABI imagery. The feature has been fixed and the simulations have been corrected. A new set of synthetic GOESR-ABI images has been produced. (L. Grasso)

An observational operator was used to simulate brightness temperatures from GOES-R’s Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) 6.185 and 10.35 µm channels. The difference between these 2 channels has been observed over deep convection, so this investigation is meant to explain these observations, and to evaluate the utility of such a product when GOES-R is launched. An abstract with results of this study was submitted to the AMS GOES-R Users’ Conference (May 2006, Broomfield, CO). (D. Lindsey)

A poster “Detecting volcanic ash and blowing dust using GOES, MODIS, and AIRS imagery” by B. Connell and F. Prata was presented at the AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography held in Atlanta, Georgia in January 2006.

An article “Preparing for GOES-R: Old Tools with New Perspectives” by B. Connell and D. Hillger, was prepared for the spring 2006 edition of the CIRA Magazine. (B. Connell)

D. Lindsey is providing input for a manuscript entitled “Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery” by M. Setvák , D. T. Lindsey, R. M. Rabin, and P. K. Wang. Martin Setvák is with the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. This paper will be submitted to Monthly Weather Review in the next few months. (D. Lindsey)

GOES data is still being provided to Mike Fromm (Naval Research Lab) for a study examining towering cumulus clouds associated with large wildfires (pyrocumulus). (D. Lindsey)

A project was completed in collaboration with Woodley Weather Consultants, in which the nowcasting and forecasting utility of effective radius retrievals (using GOES data) from towering cumulus clouds was evaluated. Results were promising, suggesting that such retrievals may be used to create a thunderstorm forecasting product using GOES data. (D. Lindsey)

In response to a request from the NWS Southern Region headquarters and The Norman, OK NWSFO, a GOES-12 full resolution 3.9 micron loop covering Oklahoma was added to RAMSDIS Online.  This product shows the hot spots associated with wild fires. Below is a sample image showing three fires in Northern Texas . This request was to provide Internet access to the GOES channel 2 data for use by responders in the field. (D. Watson)

During this quarter 27 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 117 teletraining signups, 360 students participated. (D. Bikos and J. Braun)

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 27, 2006. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

Note: Numbers from the Climate Services Professional Development Series are not included in the totals above, the numbers are listed here:

Developed web-pages needed for the implementation of the SHyMet for interns course debut in April 2006. Developed e-learning material (including quizzes) for the Intern SHyMet Program will be input into the NOAA/NWS Learning Management System. We began registration for the SHyMet Intern Course and sent out multiple course instructions. A pre-course survey for SHyMet was written and implemented. (D. Bikos and J. Braun)

Final preparations were made for the Intern track of the S atellite Hy drology and Met eorology (SHyMet) Course. The SHyMet Course will touch on Geostationary and Polar orbiting satellite basics (areal coverage and image frequency), identification of atmospheric and surface phenomena, and provide examples of the integration of meteorological techniques with satellite observing capabilities. This course will be taught through a combination of web-based instruction and teletraining and will be the equivalent of 16 hours of training. Registration for the course opened in March 6 and the course is being offered starting April 3, 2006. Course content and objectives can be viewed at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp (D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell, M. DeMaria, R. Zehr) (B. Connell)

The SHyMet training session, “Satellite Applications with Tropical Cyclones” includes new images and examples from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. (R. Zehr)

New training session on satellite applications to tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting: As part of the new Satellite Hydrology and Meteorology (SHyMet) distance learning course, a new training session on satellite applications to tropical cyclones was developed. The course will require about 90 minutes to complete, and covers applications of geostationary and polar orbiting satellites. The course outline is shown below. (M. DeMaria)

Satellite Applications to Tropical Cyclones

SHyMet Course Outline

An asynchronous audio training session was developed (with Peter Banacos – NWS Burlington, VT) in the Advanced Warning Operations Course (AWOC) for Winter Weather entitled “Monitoring Model Accuracy.” (D. Bikos)

Hiro Gosden and Kashia Jekel provided assistance in creating an installation package to install the WMO Tutorial Session on the personal computers in DVD format. The DVD’s will be shipped to Don Hinsman to be passed out to the WMO sites. (H. Gosden)

GOES-12 imagery for December 2005 through February 2006 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados . The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts. The monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2005, January and February 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1.  Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2005, January and February 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica .

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2005, January and February 1999-2006 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2005, January and February 1999-2006 for Barbados .

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean .

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados

The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html

http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html

The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA ( http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, CIMSS, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua, Barbados, Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Cayman, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, and Venezuela. The discussions were well attended with up to 25 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. The sessions started with comments from the participating countries on the features of interest for their local weather. After this, Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk gave an analysis . The sessions generally last 90 minutes. (B. Connell and D. Coleman)

D. Hillger attended several of the Professional Development Institute (PDI) classes being offered the first week of January at CSU. Many of the classes were centered on computer technology and security, but a wide variety of other topics were covered as well. He was also a presenter for one of the classes, entitled “Metric Transition in the U.S. : Where We Are, and Where We Are Headed,” a repeat of a well-received presentation that he made at the same event two years ago. The classes are an opportunity for CSU faculty and staff to share their expertise, at a time when student activity is at a minimum. (D. Hillger)

D. Lindsey traveled to Washington D.C. in January 2006 to take part in the ICAPOP meeting. While there, he presented a StAR seminar on the 3.9 µm reflectivity work described in the Monthly Weather Review paper. (D. Lindsey)

Posters presented at the Annual AMS Meeting:

Connell, B.H., and F. Prata, 2006: Detecting volcanic ash and blowing dust using GOES, MODIS, and AIRS imagery. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, C. Barnet, R.T. DeMaria, 2006: Tropical Cyclone Applications of Next-Generation Operational Satellite Soundings. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Dostalek, J.F . and M. DeMaria, 2006: Polar wind retrievals using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2006: Analysis of a hook echo and RFD from a simulated supercell on 8 May 2003. AMS Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2005: Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery of mesoscale weather events. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and D.T. Lindsey, 2006. A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R Product Development Risk Reduction Activities. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., T. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, J.A. Knaff, and J. Daniels, 2006: An Overview of GOES-N Science Test. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Knaff, J.A., and M. DeMaria, 2006: A Multi-platform Satellite Tropical Cyclone Wind Analysis System. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Lindsey, D.T. , 2006: A Climatological Study of Ice Cloud Reflectivity over the Continental US. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.T. Lindsey , and M. DeMaria , 2006: Statistical comparisons of model output with satellite observations: a severe weather case. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, M. Sengupta , and M. Zupanski , 2006: Evaluating the Impact of Satellite Data Density within an Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach.   AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta , GA.

Dr. Philip Ardanuy and Dr. Richard Sikorski from the Raytheon Remote Sensing Applications Division visited CIRA on March 15. They met with several RAMMB and CIRA scientists to discuss a NESDIS-StAR funded project to develop a standardized framework for the transition of StAR research to operations. (M. DeMaria)

Stonie Cooper from Planetary Data visited RAMMB on February 13 and 14. (D. Molenar)

Guidance and data was provided to Rouzbeh Nazari from CREST at City University of New York for a research project on long term variations in Atlantic hurricane activity. Rouzbeh is a graduate student working with Drs. Khanbilvardi and Mahani. The emphasis of the project is to determine the role of the variability in the formation locations of tropical cyclones on the increase in Atlantic hurricanes that has been observed since 1970. The hypothesis is that because of the large sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Atlantic, changes in locations can be more important than the basin-wide SST increases. The basin-wide SST increase over the past 35 years is about 1 o C, compared with an SST variation of about 4 o C from the eastern to the western side of the Atlantic. (M. DeMaria)

All NOAA RAMMB employees successfully completed the required NOAA on-line security training. (M. DeMaria)

D. Lindsey attended the ICAPOP meeting in Camp Springs , MD. He will be assuming the co-chair position on the committee when Gary Ellrod retires in March. (D. Lindsey)

Due to the Solar House II Building getting condemned, the IT group for the CIRA that works closely with the NOAA group had to vacate the office space in the Solar House building. H. Gosden coordinated the personnel moves with the facilities to accomplish a smooth transition. Due to the small space allotted to the IT personnel, many of the equipment needs to moved to various storage places. This task was coordinated with the facilities as well. (H. Gosden)

Input was provided for all CIRA IT staff supporting RAMMB. (D. Molenar)

A server rack was assembled and installed in the CIRA Server room to house the RAMM Branch’s Web, FTP, and NOAAPort ingest servers (H. Gosden)

Sony Vegas6+DVD, a video editing software, was purchased and installed to be used in various video projects underway (H. Gosden)

An EarthLink ISP was procured to be used by the RAMM Branch scientists while on travel. This was a big hit with the scientists who traveled and therefore the ISP Service agreement was extended for another year (H. Gosden)

The RAMMB NOAAPORT ingest installation was completed and the ingest is working properly. Efforts are underway to procure hardware and software to emulate an AWIPS/D2D workstation so that the data can be displayed in real-time.( D. Molenar)

Transition off of the last surviving RAMMB HP workstation is complete. A secondary server has been configured to mirror the primary RAMMB Linux server to prevent work disruption during primary server down time. (D. Molenar)

Hardware requirements, evaluation, and cost/performance analysis has been completed for RAMMB utilization of 2006 NOAA IT Refresh funds. (D. Molenar)

GOES-East/West RAMSDIS Upgrade : In continuing our infrastructure upgrade on our lab systems, the GOES-East/West RAMSDIS system was upgraded to a faster system and switched over from Windows to a Linux operating system.  This system also serves as a server for generating RAMSDIS Online products. (D. Watson)

D. Hillger received the Bernice Scholl Award for the best Astrophile article(s) in 2004. Astrophile is the journal of the American Topical Association philatelic unit that deals with space themes on postage stamps. Dr. Hillger has published many articles on weather and other scientific/research satellites on stamps and was honored with the award for his continuing series of articles on Un-Manned Satellite on Postage Stamps. Currently 20 articles in the series have been published. The Award was shared with co-author, Garry Toth, a research meteorologist with Environment Canada at the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre in Edmonton, Alberta. (D. Hillger)

To Accepted, Submitted, and Reviews

Published: 

Refereed

Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, and J. Braun, 2006:  The Role of GOES Satellite Imagery in Tracking Low-Level Moisture. Wea. Forecasting, 21 , 232-241.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2006: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses, J. Appl. Meteor., 45:3, 491-499.

Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., and F. Prata, 2006: Detecting volcanic ash and blowing dust using GOES, MODIS, and AIRS imagery. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Daniels, J., R. Scofield, G. Ellrod, R. Kuligowski, D.W. Hillger, T.J. Schmit, W. Bresky, J.C. Davenport, and A.J. Schreiner, 2006: Validation of GOES-N Imager data and products during the GOES-N Science Test. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA, 5 pp.

DeMaria, M., 2006:  Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes. AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting. 20-23 February, Honolulu, HI.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, C. Barnet, R.T. DeMaria, 2006: Tropical Cyclone Applications of Next-Generation Operational Satellite Soundings. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2006:  Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models : A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 20-23 March, Mobile, AL

Dostalek, J.F. and M. DeMaria, 2006: Polar wind retrievals using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2006: Analysis of a hook echo and RFD from a simulated supercell on 8 May 2003. AMS Symposium on the Challenges of Severe Convective Storms. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2005: Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery of mesoscale weather events. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and D.T. Lindsey, 2006. A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R Product Development Risk Reduction Activities. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Hillger, D.W., T. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, J.A. Knaff, and J. Daniels, 2006: An Overview of GOES-N Science Test. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Knaff, J.A., and M. DeMaria, 2006: Continued Development of Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Products: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. 20-23 March, Mobile, AL.

Knaff, J.A., and M. DeMaria, 2006: A Multi-platform Satellite Tropical Cyclone Wind Analysis System. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Lindsey, D.T., 2006: A Climatological Study of Ice Cloud Reflectivity over the Continental US. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Schmit, T.J., G.S. Wade, M.M. Gunshor, J.P. Nelson III, A.J. Schreiner, J. Li, J. Daniels, and D.W. Hillger, 2006: The GOES-N Sounder Data and Products. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA. 6 pp.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.T. Lindsey, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Statistical comparisons of model output with satellite observations: a severe weather case. AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, M. Sengupta, and M. Zupanski, 2006: Evaluating the Impact of Satellite Data Density within an Ensemble Data Assimilation Approach.  AMS 14th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. 29 January-3 February, Atlanta, GA.

Accepted:

Refereed

Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2006:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis.  J. of Applied Meteorology.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2006:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Hillger, D., S.Q. Kidder, 2006:  A simple GOES skin temperature product. National Weather Digest.

Jones, T., D.J. Cecil, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Passive Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme.Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, and J.F. Dostalek, 2006: GOES climatology and analysis of thunderstorms with enhanced 3.9 µm albedo. Monthly Weather Review.

Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, T.H. Vonder Haar:, 2005: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. J. Applied Meterology.

Submitted:

Refereed

Chen, S.S., J.A. Knaff, and F.D. Marks, Jr., 2006: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM. Monthly Weather Review.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2005: Synthetic GOES-R and NPOESS imagery of mesoscale weather events. J. of Applied Meteorology.

Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2006: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Wind Relationships. Weather and Forecasting.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, C.J. McAdie, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.

Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, K.J. Mueller, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2006: Estimating Hurricane Wind Structure in the Absence of Aircraft Recconnaissance. Weather and Forecasting.

Landsea, C., J. Beven, J. Callaghan, B. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, J. Kossin, M. Mayfield, A. Mestas-Nunez, M. Turk, 2006: Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones:  Can We Detect Climate Trends from Existing Tropical Cyclone Databases?   Science.

Sampson, C.R, J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2006: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin, Weather and Forecasting.

Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2005: Evaluation of GFDL Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms.  Weather and Forecasting.

Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., 2006:  Preparing for GOES-R: old tools with new perspectives.  4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

DeMaria, M., 2006:  Hurricane Intensity Estimation from GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite Eye Sounding. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

DeMaria, M., 2006:  Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Improvements Using GOES and Aircraft Reconnaissance Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  24-28 April, Monterey, CA.

Cram, T., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2006:  Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes Using GOES and Reanalysis Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  24-28 April, Monterey, CA.

Grasso, L.D., and M. Sengupta, 2006:  A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2006:  Synthetic GOES-R and NPP Imagery of Mesoscale Weather Events. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

Hillger, D.W., 2006:  GOES-R ABI New Product Development: Focus on Fog and Atmospheric Dust.  4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

Maclay, K., 2006:  Tropical Cyclone Inner Core Energetics and Its Relation to Storm Structural Changes. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  24-28 April, Monterey, CA.

Knaff, J.A., and C. Sampson, 2006:  Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  24-28 April, Monterey, CA.

Zehr, R.M., 2006:  Analysis of High Resolution Infrared Images of Hurricanes from Polar Satellites as a Proxy for GOES-R. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

Zehr, R.M., 2006:  Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis – Satellite Analysis. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  24-28 April, Monterey, CA.

Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Brightness Temperature Observations. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference.  1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.

Reviews: J. Knaff reviewed a manuscript discussing a global climate shift across the late 1960s that was submitted to the Journal of Climate.