Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The PSDI Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product has been verified for the 2006 Atlantic & E. Pacific hurricane seasons and was found to be skillful in both basins based on ROC scores and Brier scores with respect to climatological probability values.  Using the updated satellite water vapor imagery archive collected last quarter, the product domain has been extended to include the Western and Central N. Pacific basins and divided into 3 product sub-domains based on satellite coverage (MTSAT: 110-180°E, GOES-W: 180-255°E, GOES-E 255-350°E, all 0-45°N).  In addition to this spatial extension, 2 more years have been included in the algorithm sample set (2004-2005) and a horizontal convergence term has been added to the linear discriminant analysis predictor set.

Algorithm development has been completed and the process of transitioning to the pre-operational phase has recently started.  During this phase, the extended product will be run locally at CIRA and be displayed on a web page for experimental use and evaluation.  The current product will continue to run operationally at SAB (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html) and will be used to help verify the newly updated product at the end of the 2007 season.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

The topic of objective identification of Annular Hurricanes (Knaff et al. 2003) was revisited.  Annular Hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that has been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly, than average tropical cyclones.  Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge.  A new paper was submitted that updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995-2006 in both the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone basins (Figure 1).  Because annular hurricanes have a unique appearance in infrared satellite imagery, and form in a specific set of environmental conditions, an objective real-time objective method to identify these hurricanes is developed.  However, the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (~4% of the time), so the algorithm to detect annular hurricanes employs two steps to narrow the candidates:  1) prescreening the data, and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis.  To support this work a manuscript entitled “Objective identification of annular hurricanes” by J. Knaff, T. Cram (CSU), A. Schumacher,  J. Kossin (U. Wisc/CIMSS) and M. DeMaria was submitted for publication to Weather and Forecasting. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1. Color enhanced infrared imagery of the fourteen Annular Hurricane cases at or near peak visual annular characteristics.  Storm names, dates and times are given in each individual panel.

Several improvements to the National Hurricane Center’s operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) were tested on cases from the 2006 hurricane season. SHIPS is an empirical model for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity changes using input from GOES data, sea surface temperature and ocean heat content analyses and NCEP global forecast system (GFS) model fields. A number of changes were tested including a new method for evaluating the vertical wind shear and improved utilization of the GFS model fields. The SHIPS model was also reformulated by making use of a logistic growth equation model (LGEM) derived from studies of population dynamics, where the growth rate is estimated using the same input as for SHIPS. Figure 2 below shows the percent improvement in the intensity forecasts from the experimental version of SHIPS and LGEM relative to the operational version for all of the 2006 forecasts from the Atlantic basin. This figure shows improvements of up to 26% due to the revised input and reformulation of SHIPS. These experimental versions will be implemented in real time for the 2007 hurricane season, pending approval from NHC.  These results were presented at the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in New Orleans, LA in March of 2007.

Figure 2. The percent improvement of the experimental SHIPS intensity forecasts (D-SHIPS) and a new statistical intensity model based on a logistic growth equation (LGEM) relative to the operational version of SHIPS for all cases from the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season.

The CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Page, which displays global real-time tropical cyclone information with an emphasis on experimental or recently transitioned products developed at CIRA/RAMMB was publicly introduced.  The web site, which is integrated into a database for archival of past events, has been under development for the last six months and currently shows 10 products of which 3 are experimental, 2 are recently transitioned to operations, 2 are storm information related, and 3 are imagery products. This web site is as a test-bed for obtaining user feedback for new experimental products and the dissemination of information derived from products created at CIRA/NESDIS-RAMMB.   The webpage was presented as a poster at the 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in New Orleans as shown below in Figure 3.

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 3. 

The announcement was made via the tropical cyclone mailing list that has some 700 members – many international.  The response to the announcement was extremely positive.  For example, Alipate Waqaicelua  wrote “RSMC Nadi commends you and the CIRA team for opening up a new window, with new, real-time data sources, into operational TC forecasting.”  (J. Knaff)

Programs have been written to verify the now operational Monte Carlo tropical cyclone wind probability algorithm.  The algorithm provides an estimate of the probability of experiencing 34-, 50-, or 64-kt winds (cumulatively and incrementally) on grids based on forecasts of currently active tropical cyclones.  The code itself helps check that these wind probabilities are unbiased, skillful, and have the ability to discriminate events from non-events.  Example output of the reliability diagrams comparing forecast probabilities to observed frequencies associated with the cumulative 96-hour 34-, 50- and 64-kt winds is shown in Figure 4. The code also allows for the quantification of future improvements to these algorithms. (J. Knaff)

Figure 4.  Observed cumulative frequency vs. predicted cumulative probabilities associated with the occurrence of 34-, 50- and 64-kt winds.

Because the recursive ls function is no longer available on the NWS product server, updates have been made to the scripts which ingest GFS analyses on a daily basis.  The GFS data are used in tropical cyclone research. (J. Dostalek)

The development of the GOES-R proxy tropical cyclone database is nearly complete. Almost 500 IR images from AVHRR and MODIS were collected from 11 tropical cyclones from 2002-2005 at 1 km resolution. These were remapped to 2 and 4 km resolution and companion GOES imagery was obtained. This data will be used to develop new tropical cyclone intensity algorithms for GOES-R as part of the Algorithm Working Group project. A web page displaying the proxy data is available at  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/awg. 

Digital satellite enhancement tables that are used locally to display infrared, water vapor and visible imagery as well as the “BD curve” enhancement, which is used for Dvorak EIR analysis, were supplied to K. Knapp (NCDC) and J. Kossin (U. Wisc/CIMSS) for use with the NCDC Hurricane Satellite Data Set (HURSAT).  HURSAT is available at  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/b1utc/b1utc.html. (J. Knaff)

Forecasts from the ENSO CLIPER model (Knaff and Landsea 1997, Weather and Forecasting) was provided to CPC for publication in the Climate Diagnostic Bulletin.  An automated forecast sends the forecasts to CPC via ftp and email.  (J. Knaff)

J. Knaff agreed to be the WMO focal point for recommendations from the recent 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) on the topic of tropical cyclone intensity and structure prediction.  Duties include serving as the coordinator of the activities related to the workshop recommendations and initiating dialog among the agencies that make intensity and structure forecasts to address the recommendations.   Workshop recommendations can be found at http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/recommendation.htm.

Studies on the best ways to combine tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts with NRL, Monterey have led to the conclusion that equal weighting of individual forecast to create a consensus forecast seems most productive when the distributions of errors of the member models are similarly distributed.  Documentation of this work has lead to one paper being accepted and another being submitted for review.  (J. Knaff)

M. DeMaria will be co-teaching a group study class in Tropical Meteorology (AT796) with Prof. Wayne Schubert in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science. The class will consist of the reviews of classic papers in tropical meteorology. The first review of a paper on large-scale tropical dynamics by Peter Webster was given by M. DeMaria, and the remaining papers will be reviewed by the students. The 1-credit class meets for one hour on Wednesday afternoons and 18 students are participating. (M. DeMaria)

rocessing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2006, January and February 2007.  (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for November and December 2006, and January 2007 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for November and December 2006, and January 2007.  An hourly employee has been trained in retrieving wind information for wind regime products. (C. Combs)

Combined monthly wind regime products over Cheyenne National Weather Service (NWS) County Warning Area (CWA) were pulled for May 1998-2006 from archive.  Jpegs were converted and placed on a CD for the Cheyenne office.  (C. Combs)

Cindy Combs, Deb Molenar, Dan Bikos and Jeff Braun visited the Cheyenne NWS office.  They met with Cheyenne’s new Science and Operations Officer (SOO), Melissa Goering, and discussed how climatologies could be used in their forecasts.  They took a tour of the Cheyenne office and systems and gave a CD with May climatologies to Senior Forecaster Mike Weiland for him and other forecasters to review.  Later, copies of CIRA’s climatology papers were emailed to Ms. Goering. (C. Combs)

The RAMM Branch has been participating in a study focused on deriving wind fields over the Arctic using satellite techniques.  The RAMM contribution has been to develop a method where an estimate of the wind field is calculated using temperature profiles derived from AMSU radiances, using an algorithm developed by Mitch Goldberg.  As part of that study, the temperature retrievals themselves were examined.  Figure 1 shows the bias and root mean square errors of the retrievals when compared to radiosondes launched in the Arctic.  The data are from December 2004.  The twelve levels of comparison ranged from 850 hPa to 10 hPa, with the number of comparisons at each level listed on the right side of the plot.  For the most part, the bias is within 1 K and the rmse between 2 and 3 K of the radiosonde.  The performance at 150 hPa is a bit poorer; perhaps the technique has trouble with the low Arctic tropopause. The next step in this project is to compare the derived winds to the operational MODIS polar wind data in a much larger sample. (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  Performance of an AMSU-based temperature retrieval technique in comparison to radiosonde data.  The comparisons were made over the Arctic in December of 2004.

Using the temperature retrieved from the AMSU radiances along with a balance equation, the wind field over the Arctic was computed for the December 2004 data.  The statistical comparison of the derived wind speed to the radiosonde data are shown in Figure 2.  The bias is within 3 m s-1 and the rmse within 7 m s-1.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 2.  Comparison statistics for wind speed.  Solid lines are the bias, dashed lines are the rmse.  The colors correspond to the different balance approximations: black-geostrophic, blue-linear, red-nonlinear.  The number of comparisons at each level is given on the right hand side of the figure.

A proposal outlining the activities for year 3 of a three-year project was written and sent to the principal investigator Jeff Key of CIMSS.  In year 3 the temperature and winds will be computed for a summer dataset to augment the work already done on data from December 2004.  Emphasis will be placed on the linear balance as it appears that the use of the nonlinear balance does not result in improvement beyond the linear balance.  An omega equation will be used to estimate the irrotational component of the wind, in hopes of further improving the statistics.  A near real-time processing of wind retrievals over the Arctic will also be set up.  This method of polar wind retrieval will be applied in two areas: 1) in a comparison to MODIS feature-tracked winds and 2) to investigate the behavior of the polar vortex. (J. Dostalek)

In a study of midlatitude cyclones over the Northeast Pacific, methods similar to those used in the calculation of Arctic winds are being employed in the study of atmospheric rivers.  In this study, data from the ATOVS product suite were being used.  ATOVS is NOAA’s operational retrieval products for polar-orbiting satellites.  However, due to some questions concerning the quality of the ATOVS soundings, work is being done to switch to a different retrieval method for the atmospheric rivers study.  The new retrieval method is that which has been developed (and is continuing to be developed) at CIRA.  A summary of this work was presented to Professor Wayne Schubert’s research group (CSU Department of Atmospheric Science), of which J. Dostalek is a Ph.D. student.  (J. Dostalek)

Work which had previously been done on the use of satellite imagery in monitoring the trowal has been redirected.  The new focus is the investigation of wintertime midlatitude cyclones and their signatures in satellite imagery.  In particular, signatures in satellite imagery which can be linked to the deepening of systems moving east off of the Rocky Mountains will be sought.  (J. Dostalek)

The Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index is running in real-time on this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/mcsindex/mcsindex.asp .  Validation of the product using GOES IR imagery is currently underway, and real-time validation should commence around the first of April.  The example below shows the index at 18 UTC on 1 March 2007, during a severe weather outbreak in the southeast.  (D. Lindsey, I. Jirak)

Figure 3.  An example of the MCS Index from 3-1-2007 at 1800 UTC.

Based on reviews from a submitted journal article, an improvement is underway on the ice cloud effective radius product.  Currently, the algorithm uses only the 3.9 and 10.7 µm channels, but optically thin clouds occasionally provide ice crystal sizes which are too small.  To screen for these optically thin clouds, the visible channel is being added to the algorithm so that only those clouds with large visible reflectance will be considered.  In the example below, many of the cirrus clouds in northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming are likely optically thin, so the improved algorithm would screen them out.  Work is also underway to determine the link between thunderstorm intensity and cloud-top ice crystal size.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure 4.  GOES Ice Cloud Effective Radius Product from 23 February 2007.  Colors indicate cloud-top ice effective radius values. 

A journal article was submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology called “An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES,” by D. Lindsey and L. Grasso.  Reviews were recently received, and work is currently underway to make some changes to the paper. (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)

An outbreak of severe weather on March 1 2007 was captured by GOES-12 Rapid Scan Operations.  Because of the proven utility of the rapid-scan data, this mode of operations was triggered automatically, based on severe weather criteria from the National Weather Service. The figure below shows six consecutive 10.7 µm images over southern Alabama.  The black circles highlight one particular storm responsible for a deadly tornado (rated EF-4) in the town of Enterprise — 8 fatalities occurred at the local high school.  Note the rapid cooling of the IR brightness temperature which commenced about 25 minutes prior to the tornado (1910 UTC, red box in the figure).  The brightness temperature dropped 10.5 ˚C between 1825-1915 UTC, and fell to as low as -76 ˚C, significantly colder than the surrounding convective cloud tops.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure 5.  GOES-12 10.7 µm imagery for 6 times on 1 March 2007.  The black circle shows the location of a storm which produced a deadly tornado in the town of Enterprise, Alabama.  The red box at 1910 UTC shows the location of the tornado.

This quarter was dominated by further development of the observational operator for generation of synthetic GOES-R ABI data. Specifically, improvements in 3.9 µm imagery began this quarter. Brightness temperatures are too warm on top of simulated thunderstorms when Modified Anomalous Diffraction Theory (MADT) is used to calculate optical properties.  Since emission from the pristine ice field on top of thunderstorms dominates the radiance field, optical properties for pristine ice are derived from more accurate means. These are then combined with optical properties of other hydrometeor types and fed into SHDOMPP.  This work is likely to continue into the next quarter.  (L. Grasso, Dan Lindsey, and Manajit Sengupta)

Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery for the 2 October 2002 hurricane Lili case was sent to Iliana Genkova of CIMSS this quarter. She is using the synthetic imagery to test a “water vapor derived winds” algorithm. Her work continues with the 8 May 2003 severe weather case. (L. Grasso)

As part of the Algorithm Working Group activities at CIRA, a matrix of fire hotspots was added into a clear sky version of the 8 May 2003 severe weather case. A teleconference with Elaine Prins and other fire experts was held this quarter to aid us in producing synthetic fires suitable for algorithm testing.  (L. Grasso)

The GOES-R Case Study Database has been updated to include synthetic imagery loops for 10 ABI channels.  The cases include a severe weather event, a lake-effect snow event, and a hurricane.  All of these loops are available on the following webpage: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/intranet/GOESR_IPO/GOESR_IPO_case_study_database.html.  In addition, the McIDAS code which creates the synthetic images has been updated to use the current ADDE-bases subroutines. (J. Dostalek)

D. Molenar, D. Bikos, J. Braun and C. Combs met with Cheyenne NWS FO MIC and SOO to discuss possible collaborations and cloud climatology transition to AWIPS.  (D. Molenar)

D. Lindsey has been invited to be a lecturer at a EUMETSAT training workshop in Trieste, Italy, in September 2007.  The workshop occurs one week prior to the European Conference on Severe Storms, also in Trieste.  (D. Lindsey)

J. Dostalek is participating in an informal FORTRAN 90/95 class offered by two research groups in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. (J. Dostalek)

D. Bikos, J. Braun, C. Combs and D. Molenar visited the Cheyenne WFO to discuss potential training topics as well as observe some of the daily tasks that are involved with forecasting. (J. Braun and D. Bikos)

Collaboration with COMET and several NOAA / NWS forecast offices in delivering new teletraining. (J. Braun and D. Bikos)

The latest version of software for de-striping GOES and other imagery with multiple detectors has been sent to Jim Nelson at UW/CIMSS.  The code will be used to de-stripe GOES-13 data which seem to be unusually plagued by unexplained differences between the various detectors, especially in some of the GOES-13 Sounder bands.  (D. Hillger)

During this quarter 53 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 179 teletraining signups, 422 students participated. (J. Braun and D. Bikos)

D. Bikos and J. Braun have completed development of a new VISIT teletraining session titled “Satellite Interpretation of Orographic Clouds / Effects”.  Objectives include 1) Identification of various orographic clouds and 2) satellite interpretation for various events where orography played a significant role.  The teletraining began in February and so far feedback has been positive.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter:

• Conditional Climatology –AvnFPS 3.2 (instructed by Todd Lericos, Cammye Sims, Jeff Tongue, Mike Graf, David Hotz, Mark Struthwolf and Jerry Griffin / NOAA / NWS)
• Satellite Interpretation of Orographic Clouds / Effects (instructed by Dan Bikos and Jeff Braun / CIRA)

NAM-WRF Update and Performance Discussion (instructed by Stephen Jascourt, UCAR / COMET)  (J. Braun and D. Bikos)

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 16, 2007.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

SHyMet Metrics (through March 2007) 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

107 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA.  14 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA. 

53 of the 107 individuals registered here at CIRA have completed the NOAA version of SHyMet since April 1, 2006.   

9 of the 14 individuals registered here at CIRA have completed the Non-NOAA version of SHyMet since April 1, 2006.

NOAA-LMS Registered:

Overall NOAA – LMS (Learning Management System) – SHyMet individual session breakdown through March 2007.

1. Orientation:  184 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.
2. GOES Intro…:  164 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  162 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.
4. POES…:  160 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  
5. GOES Sounder…:  93 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  An additional 54 have taken the session via teletraining.  Total = 147.  
6. High Density Winds…:  101 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  An additional 53 have taken the session via teletraining.  Total = 154
7. Cyclogenesis:  99 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  An additional 53 have taken the session via teletraining.  Total = 152
8. Severe Weather:  113 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  An additional 53 have taken the session via teletraining.  Total = 166  
9. Tropical Cyclones:  196 have registered for this session through the LMS since April 1, 2006.  

(J. Braun and D. Bikos)

CIRA is providing input for the planning stages of a second High Profile Training Event  for the Americas and the Caribbean that is proposed to take place in October 2007.  (B. Connell)

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Germany (EUMETSAT), Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather.  Imagery from GOES-10 was added for the January session and February’s session highlighted severe weather over Argentina.  February’s session experienced and unusual amount of problems with Yahoo for voice.  The sessions lasted 60 – minutes.  (B. Connell) GOES-12 imageryfor December 2006 through February 2007 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for December though February 1997-2007 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1.  (B. Connell)

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for December through February 1997-2007 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica. 

Click on images to enlarge.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December through February 1999-2007 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.  (B. Connell)

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December through February 1999-2007 for Barbados. 

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean. 
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html  

(B. Connell, D. Coleman)

The GOES-13 Science Test, which started on 7 December 2006 and continued officially only through 28 December, has concluded its third and final weeks.  Of the available test schedules, 1-minute interval rapid-scan imagery was called on three consecutive days to capture the intense low pressure center that developed in the southwest U.S., dumped large amounts of snow in Colorado in particular, and then traveled east.  That was followed by a call for 30-second interval rapid-scan imagery for the Washington DC area.  Additional 5-minute GOES-R temporal emulations were also acquired, as well as 1-minute rapid-scan imagery of a strong frontal system entering the Pacific Northwest.  Finally, due to a delayed entry of GOES-13 into storage, additional pre-determined Imager and Sounder data sets were gathered while GOES-13 was still operating, through 5 January.  See the GOES-13 NOAA Science Test page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/) for the available schedules, as well as a table of what schedules have been implemented on a daily basis.  The web page is updated whenever new information and results are available.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, as well as the teams at CIMSS and Satellite Operations)

Estimates of the noise levels of the GOES-13 Sounder bands have been calculated for space-view measurements from the GOES-13 Sounder.  Conclusions are: 1) there is an increase in Sounder noise at and around 0800 UTC, which is yet unexplained, 2) the noise estimates from RAMMB/CIRA are very similar to those calculated independent by ASPB/CIMSS, and 3) GOES-13 Sounder noise appears to be lower than previous GOES in the longwave IR bands in particular, while other bands have noise similar to GOES-12, but noise in all bands is much lower than instrument specifications.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1a: 24 hours of hourly noise estimates.  Note the peak in noise at and around 0746 UTC, which is yet unexplained.

Figure 1b: GOES-13 Sounder noise appears to be lower than previous GOES in the longwave IR bands in particular.  Other bands have noise similar to GOES-12.  Noise in all bands is much lower than instrument specifications.

Below are two images of an analysis of detector-to-detector striping for the GOES-13 Sounder.  Both images show striping for all 18 IR bands for 24 hours of data collected on Julian Days 343-344.  The first image is the analysis for data collected from the east-limb of the earth (times ending in xx46 UTC) and the second image is the same analysis for data collected from the west-limb of the earth (times ending in xx16 UTC).  Both data sets include earth and space views.  Note the much increased striping for all bands on the west limb vs. the east limb.  Striping in all bands is elevated by a ratio of 1.24 (for band 15) to 2.55 (for band-11).  An explanation for the difference in striping between the data from the two limbs is being investigated.  These results are unlike previously reported noise analysis in which the results from both limbs of the earth were nearly identical.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1a: GOES-13 Sounder striping for all 18 IR bands for 24 hours of east-limb (earth and space views) data.

Figure 1b: Same as in Figure 1a, except for west-limb data.  Note the increase in detector-to-detector striping compared to the east-limb data.

Below are additional plots of an analysis of detector-to-detector striping for the GOES-13 Sounder.  The figure shows a four-panel comparison of East limb vs. West limb striping for separate space-only and earth-only measurements.  Note that striping is much larger for earth-only measurements (right side) compared to space-only measurements (left side).  For earth-only measurements, striping is much larger (on the order of a factor of 2) for the West limb (bottom right) vs. the East limb (top right).  For space-only measurements, striping is not that much different between the two limbs.  There is no current explanation for the difference in striping between the data from the two limbs, although striping is probably expected to be greater for earth-only measurements than for space-only measurements, due to the larger signal associated with those measurements.  Additional details are available in a PowerPoint presentation attached to the GOES-13 Science Test Web page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Examples of GOES-13 Sounder striping for all 18 IR bands, comparing striping for both space-only and earth-only measurements and for west-limb vs. east-limb measurements.

CIRA 2007 hardware procurement is complete.  StAR 07 equipment request has been submitted.  New hardware includes:  new web server w/ 1.5 TB storage, new ulysses/gs mcidas data server, VESTA replacement, new tropical (pasiphae) workstation, new WES workstation, new AWIPS workstation, individual system upgrades, & VISIT, general and tropical snap drive upgrades. (D. Molenar)

AWIPS sector transition and data archive procedures have been documented.  Additional scripts have been developed to streamline data ingest and to reboot the NOAAPORT server at the first indication of data loss. (D. Molenar)

Published: 

Refereed

Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2007: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Wind Relationships. Wea Forecasting, 22:1, 71–88.

Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22:1, 89–101.

Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2007: Evaluation of GFDL and Simple Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms.  Weather and Forecasting, 22:1, 56–70.

Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., V. Castro, M. Davison, A. Mostek, T. Whittaker, A. Tupper, J. Wilson, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2007:  Training or Focus Group – Virtually there with VISITview. 4th International Workshop on Volcanic Ash, 26 – 30 March, Rotorua, New Zealand.

DeMaria, M. and J. Franklin, 2007:  Long-Term Trends in National Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings. 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.  

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2007:  Improved Statistical Intensity Forecast Models: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Year 2 Progress Report.  61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.

Hillger, D.W., and M. DeMaria, 2007: GOES-R Color Product Develoopment.  3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.

Hillger, D.W., T. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, J.A. Knaff, J. Daniels, 2007:  An overview of GOES-13 science test.  3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, N. Carrasco, and J. Dunion, 2007:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Estimation Utilizing an Empirical Inland Wind Decay Model. 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and C. Lauer, 2007:  Verification of the Monte Carlo Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities:  A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March 2007, New Orleans, LA.

Knaff, J.A.,M. DeMaria, A. Krautkramer, B. Sampson, and G. Goni, 2007:  Introducing the CIRA/NESDIS – Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch Tropical Cyclone Web Page.  61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.  

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2007:  Modeling GOES-R 6.185-10.35 µm brightness temperature differences above cold thunderstorm tops. 3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.

Renkevens, T.M., J. Gurka, T. Schmit, and M. DeMaria, 2007:   Baseline Instruments for the GOES-R Series: Providing Major Improvements to Hurricane Observations. 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.

Schumacher, A.B., DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A. Irving, N. Merckle, 2007:  A New Tropical Cyclone Formation Product: Operational Implementation for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific in 2006 and Extension to the Western N. Pacific in 2007.  61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA.

Schumacher, A.B., J.A. Knaff, T. Cram, M. DeMaria, and J. Kossin, 2007:  Operational Implementation of an Objective Annular Hurricane Index.  61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-9 March, New Orleans, LA. nJanuary 2007, San Antonio, TX.

Accepted:

Refereed 

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and C. Sampson, 2007:  Evaluation of Long-Term Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts.  Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2007: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.

Sampson, C.R., J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2007: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin,Weather and Forecasting.

Nonrefereed

Connell B.H., M. DeMaria, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2007:International Activities: Weather Briefings and Training via the Internet, Spring Issue, CIRA Newsletter.

Submitted:

Refereed

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2007: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Hillger, D.W., 2007:  GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2007:  Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes.  Weather and Forecasting.

Landsea, C., J. Beven, J. Callaghan, B. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, J. Kossin, M. Mayfield, A. Mestas-Nunez, M. Turk, 2007: Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones:  Can We Detect Climate Trends from Existing Tropical Cyclone Databases?   Science.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2007:  An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Sampson, C.R., J.F. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2007:  Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2007: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Monthly Weather Review.

Zehr, R.M. and J.A. Knaff, 2007:  Atlantic major hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics based on best track, aircraft, and IR images.  J. of Climate.

B. Connell gave a virtual presentation using VISITview to the 4th International Workshop on Volcanic Ash held in Rotorua, New Zealand.  The presentation summarized National and International training efforts at CIRA and use of the VISITview software.  The voice was done over the Internet through Yahoo messenger.  The audience included approximately 40 persons, a mix of meteorologists, volcanologists, and persons from the aviation sector. (B. Connell)

On 7 February, seventy (70) 1st graders from Dunn Elementary, an International World School, in Fort Collins CO visited CIRA.  They toured the CloudSat Data Processing Center, the main CIRA Computer Lab (showing both GOES and POES imagery), and were given a presentation in the CIRA Conference Room.  D. Hillger was one of three presenters.  The others were Don Reinke and Dave Cismoski.  This visit is part of CIRA’s (and NOAA’s) Educational Outreach. The kids and teachers asked many interesting questions and took notes on what they learned.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Don Hillger presenting GOES imagery to 1st Graders sitting on the floor in CIRA’s main Computer Lab.

D. Hillger participated in the 2007 Professional Development Institute (PDI) session of classes offered the first week of January at Colorado State University (CSU).  Classes on a wide variety of topics were available.  The classes are an opportunity for CSU faculty and staff to share their expertise, at a time when student activity is at a minimum.  Hillger also presented one of the classes, entitled “Metric Transition in the U.S.: Where We Are, and Where We Are Headed.”  This is the third time this well-received presentation has been made at the PDI.  (D. Hillger)

M. DeMaria participated in “Science Night” at Laurel Elementary School in Fort Collins. A hands-on demonstration of meteorological instruments was provided. About 20 students and parents visited the booth. A rough gender count indicated that about 60% of the interested students were girls. (M. DeMaria)

Jim Kossin from CIMSS visited RAMMB to discuss his role in the GIMPAP and GOES-R Risk reduction projects and to make sure that the work was coordinated with CIRA efforts in these areas. Several other research areas of mutual interest were discussed. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, R. Zehr, A. Schumacher)

Input to CIRA IT staff Annual Review has been completed. (D. Molenar)

The 2007 Groundsystems proposal has been completed. (D. Molenar)