D. Bikos is developing a product that incorporates satellite data and model wind information to forecast tropical cyclone recurvature.  The satellite data part is based on a technique by Dvorak (1995) which identifies the distance between the tropical cyclone center and a curved moisture boundary as seen in the GOES water vapor imagery.  An example illustrating this technique is depicted in Figure 1.  The contours are the gradient of brightness temperatures within a specified range from the water vapor imagery, while the yellow line illustrates the distance between the gradient associated with the curved moisture boundary and the storm center just before recurvature took place.  The model wind information is based on a technique by Hodanish and Gray (1993) which considers the mid- and upper-level zonal winds at a distance and direction relative to the tropical cyclone center.  Analysis of the mean u-component of the wind at mid-levels for 30 tropical cyclones has yielded encouraging results for thresholding wind values that relate to probability of recurvature (Figure 2).

Figure 1:  Tropical cyclone Fabian at 17:45 UTC 5 September 2003 just prior to recurvature.  The contours are the gradient of a specified range of brightness temperatures from the water vapor imagery, while the yellow line shows the distance between the gradient associated with the curved moisture boundary and the cyclone center.

After analysis of 36 tropical cyclones, it was found in some of these events the wind field from the vortex was affecting the wind analysis at 6 degrees (or sometimes even at 8 degrees) from the storm center.  It was determined that the wind field to be used for statistical analysis must not have effects from the vortex itself, so that a derived wind field, representative of the environment around the storm, is needed.  Currently, work is ongoing in developing an automated procedure that removes the wind field associated with the vortex.  (D. Bikos)

Fig. 2.  350-500 mb u component of the wind (m s-1) averaged west,northwest, and north octants at 6 degrees from the tropical cyclone center between -24 and +12 hours from the time of recurvature.  Values of u are averaged from 30 tropical cyclones that recurved. 

The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product has been implemented and tested and is ready to be declared operational.  The Operational Readiness Review was successfully completed on 2/27/13 and the SPSRB was briefed 3/20/13.  This product will provide NHC and JTWC hurricane forecasters with 48-hour estimates of the probability of TC formation over a global domain. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria) 

The NPP TC Products being developed under PSDI had a successful Critical Design Review on 3/13/13.  Issues that came up during the CDR as currently being addressed and it is expected that the Software Code Review and DAP delivery will occur in May 2013 as planned.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, J. Dostalek, R. DeMaria)

The Monte Carlo wind speed probability algorithm was updated for the 2013 hurricane season.  The error statistics were updated to use the last 5 years of forecast error data (2008-2012).  Updates were coordinated with C. Sampson (NRL) to ensure consistency with the ATCF-generated wind speed probabilities and will be implemented at NHC in the next few months.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

A McIDAS program was written which plots lightning flashes onto satellite imagery.  The figure below shows the lightning flashes detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network during the 6 hours prior to the formation of the depression which became Hurricane Gustav of 2008.  Lightning activity in tropical disturbances may be of value in forecasting which tropical disturbances will undergo genesis and which will dissipate.  (J. Dostalek)

Lightning flashes recorded by the WWLLN during the 6 hours ending 00 UTC 25 Aug 2008, when Tropical Depression 7 was declared.  The center of the system is marked by the blue ‘X’ and the lightning flashes shown by the red ‘+’ symbols.  TD 7 went on to become Hurricane Gustav.

The RAMM Branch produces tropical cyclone wind field products which use winds computed from temperature profiles generated from microwave satellite retrievals.  Up to this point a statistical retrieval scheme over 10 years old has been used.  In order to use NESDIS’ current operational Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) profiles to generate wind fields for tropical cyclones, several programs and scripts written in Linux, Python, and Fortran need to be updated or created.  The updating and writing of these programs are well underway, for both real-time applications and case study use.  (J. Dostalek)

Experimental tropical cyclone RGB product added to the TC-realtime web page: Since the late 1980’s passive microwave imagery in the 85-91 GHz range has been used to determine the location and relative organization of tropical cyclones. IR and WV imagery, which are available from geostationary satellites, have also been routinely used to monitor the organization, location, and intensity of TCs and infer changes in the TCs near environment. To examine the utility of combining these separate imagery products, we have developed a Red Green Blue (RGB) image product that combines IR and WV information from the global fleet of geostationary satellites with the 89-91 GHz channels from several low earth orbiting satellites as shown in Figure 1.  We are displaying and archiving these RGB images on our local RAMMB TC-realtime web page and hope to make these available to the NHC and Pacific proving ground activities. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1. Example of an RGB image composite formed by putting the IR window in the red gun (warm-cold), the water vapor in the green gun (warm-cold), and the 89-91 GHz image in the blue gun (cold-warm).  This configuration makes areas with deep convection in the IR appear whiter, and the coldest microwave elements (deepest convection) appear yellow.  The image is shown for Tropical Cyclone Sandra (SH192013) on 10 March at 1812UTC. At that time Sandra’s estimated intensity was 115 kt.

Progress has been made on the tasks related to the GOES-R tropical cyclone milestones.   Accomplishments are summarized below.

1. Aircraft reconnaissance data 1995-2012 have been decoded and placed in a common format and analysed.
2. Total Precipitable Water (TPW) estimates from two sources have been merged and tropical cyclone (TC) relative analyses of this field were created.
3. Global infrared (IR) images 1979-2012 from two sources were merged for use in several of the structure algorithms. 

The necessary and sometimes time-consuming work of preparing datasets has paid off.  Using the aircraft reconnaissance based wind analyses, over 1400 azimuthal mean and maximum wind profiles have been estimated, which has provided a detailed database from which satellite algorithms and climatologies can be formed. An example of azimuthal maximum winds showing the evolution of double peaked wind profile in Hurricane Ike is shown in Figure 2.  Using these data a simple climatology based on TC intensity and latitude has been created.  The merged global IR imagery has been utilized to estimate TC size variability allowing the construction of basic global climatologies.  Those TC size climatologies reveal distribution differences among basins, typical size evolution with respect to intensity, global trends (Fig. 3), and the preferred locations for large, small, and growing TCs.  Azimuthal mean profiles of TPW are being investigated for their utility in estimating other TC structure parameters. (J. Knaff, J. Dostalek)

Figure 2.  The azimuthal maximum wind as a function radius from analyses of aircraft-based reconnaissance of Hurricane Ike conducted between September 10, when it emerged into the Gulf of Mexico after hitting Cuba, through 12 September, when it made landfall southwest of Galveston Bay.

Figure 3. Time series of TC size (R5) for the (a.) North Atlantic, (b.) eastern North Pacific, (c.) western North Pacific, (d.) Southern Hemisphere, and (e.) Global hurricanes (i.e., intensities greater than 63 kt) that occurred the years 1981-2011.   The individual TC values are shown along with a trend line (solid line).  The regression equation and percent variance explained (R2) are also provided for each panel.

Monte Carlo wind speed probability data were generated for Pablo Santos (NWS Miami) for use in a state of Florida training drill.  Runs included 15 test forecast advisories for two tropical cyclones.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, S. Lynch)

M. DeMaria and A. Schumacher met with J. Dunion and J. Kaplan from 3/27-3/28 at the AOML Hurricane Research Division in Miami, FL to collaborate on the Joint Hurricane Testbed project, “Development of a Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction Scheme.” (M. DeMaria, A. Schumacher)

J. Knaff provided historical Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface wind analyses (MTCSWA) to two groups.  1) J. Hawkins of NRLMRY for his work to justify surface wind estimate capabilities on the next series of DOD polar orbiting satellites, and 2) WorldWinds, Inc., a company that produces tropical cyclone wind products for industry, and media.  (J. Knaff) 

Synthetic Imagery from the NAM Nest:  Synthetic Water Vapor and Infrared satellite imagery produced from the 4-km NAM Nest model is now being created from each 00Z forecast cycle, and is being made available via the LDM to the NWS in AWIPS format, and to the three of the National Centers (SPC, AWC, WPC) via ftp in N-AWIPS format.  This work is being supported by STAR end-of-year funds.  We received specific requests for this output from forecasters.  The image below shows a 60-hour forecast Water Vapor image, with the corresponding forecast 500 mb heights overlaid (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso).

Figure.  Synthetic GOES-13 6.5 µm image based on a 60-hour forecast from the 4-km NAM Nest model from its 00Z forecast cycle on 9 April 2013. 

VIIRS Captures PyroCb:  A heat wave in Australia and the nearby island of Tasmania has contributed to a number of large wildfires in the region.  The NPP/VIIRS true color image (at 750-m resolution) below from 4 January shows a pyroCb, or fire-induced thunderstorm, associated with one of the larger fires east of Hobart, Tasmania’s capital.  A smoke plume associated with a different fire in southwestern Tasmania is also very evident.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  NPP/VIIRS true color image over the island of Tasmania from 4 January 2013 at 04:22 UTC.  The locations of a smoke plume and a fire-induced thunderstorm, or pyroCb, are indicated.

A special sector of RAMMB/CIRA GOES satellite data and Steve Miller’s GeoColor product are being provided to support a joint CSU Atmospheric Science Department/National Park Service night sky project.  The project is testing an instrument that measures the radiance of two lines of site to see if aerosol impact on the visibility of light domes from urban or other well lighted areas (without the effect of clouds) can be determined.  GOES imagery and products are being used to determine when the Southern Wyoming/Northern Colorado test area night sky is free of clouds. (D. Molenar)

The RAMMB AMC Highlight for April, 2013 has been completed.   Ingest of NDE-NPP VIIRS test data from the CIRA NOAAPORT system was successful.  The data could eventually provide a more timely source of VIIRS EDR products.  Participation in the monthly NDE AWIPS working group telecons is ongoing.  (D. Molenar)

Participation in the bi-weekly Raytheon AWIPS2 Developer’s working group telecons is ongoing.  (D. Molenar)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

8 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 9 teletraining signups, 27 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  250
Completions:  169

LMS totals from January 2005 through March 31, 2013:
Registrations:  6546
Completions: 4273

Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training that debuted this quarter:

• VIIRS Satellite Imagery in AWIPS (by Scott Bachmeier and Scott Lindstrom, CIMSS)

New training forum:

• VISIT Satellite Chat – Virtual interactive training sessions that are intended to:

            a) be brief, target length of 30 minutes.
b) demonstrate satellite products that can be applied to operational forecasting.
c) exchange ideas across both operational and academic sides.
d) identify new training topics based on specific participant needs.
e) incorporate seasonal examples that are timely, and use real-time data (where applicable).

As of March 31, 2013, there have been 14 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 43 NWS forecast office signups.  We started in February 2012 with one morning chat session and in September went to two chat sessions: one in the morning and one in the afternoon.  This allowed for more flexibility in participation from NWS offices, as well as other researchers and trainers.

• At the February session, the Buffalo, NY NWS WFO asked about transverse bands from a recent snow event.  We analyzed the event and put together a blog entry:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/index.php/2013/02/14/transverse-bands-on-february-8-2013/
The blog entry was welcomed warmly by the Buffalo WFO and was passed around for the entire staff to look at.  This kind of interaction between the operational and academic community demonstrates the benefits of these monthly virtual discussions.

Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4-km WRF-ARW model in temperature forecasting related to sky cover.
• Orographic Rain Index (ORI)

VISIT web-page traffic:

• The following is a summary of VISIT web-page traffic for the quarter (from Google Analytics).  There were 3339 pageviews for the quarter:

Collaboration:

D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training communities.  The blog averages about 400 pageviews per month (1200 this quarter).

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 31, 2012.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

Meetings and Calls

D. Bikos presented at the NWS Eastern Region virtual satellite workshop held on February 26, 2013.  The title of the presentation was “Recent VISIT training sessions on the use of GOES-R synthetic imagery from the NSSL WRF-ARW model in a variety of forecast applications.”  The meeting web-site is: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ssd/erps/satellite/

D. Bikos and E. Szoke presented at the NOAA Satellite Science Week held March 18-22, 2013.  D. Bikos presented 2 live poster sessions titled:
1.  “Synthetic Imagery of Fog and Wave Clouds” by D. Bikos, D. Lindsey and L. Grasso.
2. “Recent examples of the Orographic Rain Index (ORI) satellite product” by D. Bikos, E. Szoke, S. Kidder and S. Miller.

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on February 1 and April 4.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participated in the COMET monthly satellite training calls.

1. Preparations for proposed SHyMet course:  GOES-R Instruments and Products

A preliminary organizational call was held between the SHyMet teams at CIRA and CIMSS 19 November to discuss how the course should be structured and executed, what in-house training modules were candidates for the new course, and how do we decide which external training modules to include in the course.  A second call was held on 30 November and invited Satellite Champions, COMET, SPoRT, and other researchers to
Provide input on training that they have that would be relevant for the new SHyMet course.

Course structure:  A customized / personalized training experience with training needs assessed during signup.

Course execution:  Assign the individual modules at the time of registration.  The web-pages will group the various topics but we will ask the student at the time of registration their training needs, then determine which modules to assign.

Current list of in-house modules (containing 70% or more GOES-R PG product content):

• Introduction to GOES-R (abbreviated version of GOES-R 101)
• Forecaster Training for the GOES-R Fog/low stratus (FLS) Products.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Cyclogenesis.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Low Clouds and Fog.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Orographic Cirrus.
• The UW NearCasting Product.
• Convective Cloud-top Cooling and UW Convective Initiation.

Potential External Modules:

A. GOES-R Satellite Liaisons (Amanda Terborg, Michael Folmer, and Chad Gravelle):

• Cloud Top Cooling
• RGB air mass / dust product
• CIMSS ABI WES case content
• Fog / low stratus (already included above)

B. COMET (Patrick Dills and Wendy Abshire)

• GOES-R Benefits of next generation monitoring (multiple parts).
• ABI module (early 2013 release).
• Companion module for GLM (future release).

Potential reference material containing less than 70% GOES-R content:
RGB products explained, Atmospheric dust, Forecasting dust storms, Volcanic ash observation tools and dispersion models, GOES channel selection (version 2), GOES channel selection (version 2),  Satellite monitoring of atmospheric composition, and Multispectral applications: monitoring the wildland fire cycle.

We will need introductory modules to briefly give an overview of how GOES-R preparations got to where they are now. We will include why there might be more than one product, as well as what to expect before and after launch.

2. The following 4 courses continue to be administered:

1. SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.  Released March 2011. Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

      Core courses:

• Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
• Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
• GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
• Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

Optional courses:

• Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
• The UW Convective Initiation Product.
• Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
• Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

2. Tropical SHyMet.  Released August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

3. SHyMet For Forecasters Learning Plan:  Released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp:

This Development Plan includes:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
9. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

4. SHyMet Intern Learning Plan: Released April 2006
The SHyMet Intern course consists of 9 modules.
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp) 

Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:

3. International training that builds on efforts of the VISIT and SHyMet Programs, and enhances communication and exchange of information with international training partners:

B. Connell participated in a virtual meeting of the VLMG on 4 March for the Virtual Laboratory for Training and Education in Satellite Meteorology (VLab) (http://vlab.wmo.int).  The VLab was established under the WMO Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) to promote effective use of satellite meteorology throughout the WMO member countries.  The VLab consists of members from major satellite operators across the globe collaborating with WMO centres of excellence.  The topics at this meeting included Competence Requirements for Aeronautical Meteorological Personnel, tools for satellite data visualization and processing, and the Train the Trainer Event in conjunction with the NOAA Satellite Conference.

4. Community Outreach: 

Volunteer work supporting after-school weather club: B. Connell ran a weekly after-school weather club on Tuesdays for Putnam Elementary (K-5) for 8 weeks during January through March 2013.  There was a 90 minute session each week.  Sessions covered rain, wind (speed and direction), clouds, temperature, and things that spin as well as measurements that are associated with these weather occurrences.  Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great!

New Shortwave Albedo Product for VIIRS:  The Shortwave Albedo product, which has been produced from other satellites images for years, is being adapted to VIIRS.  It uses the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) infrared (IR) spectral bands, combined so that the emitted energy, as measured by the LW IR band, is subtracted from the SW band, leaving only the reflected component of an otherwise emitted and reflected signal.  In addition, the coldest cloud tops are included from the LW IR band, to help distinguish them from other low reflectivity surfaces.  This product is useful in that it easily discriminates between low clouds and low reflectivity land surfaces such as ice, so that low clouds are easily seen.  Note this in the example image in the figure, particularly on the left side of the granule.  A second image product is also shown, a natural-color image product of the same VIIRS granule that easily discriminates between ice and open water, something not done well by the SW Albedo product.  Both products therefore have value in the analysis of the scene being viewed.  Like several other VIIRS products, the SW Albedo is now being created and displayed online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp.  (Although images are captured regularly, no attempt is made to display all VIIRS granules for any band or product.)  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: (Top) An example of VIIRS SW Albedo product showing its ability to easily distinguish between low clouds (white or light grey) and ice surfaces (dark).  High/ice clouds are color-coded by temperature.  (Bottom) A natural-color image of the same VIIRS granule that easily distinguishes between ice (cyan), low clouds (white), and open water (dark). This particular granule is from near the South Pole, showing a large area of Antarctic ice.

Automatic capture and online display of DNB granules:  Part of the quality checking of VIIRS imagery involves the day-night-band (DNB) and the near-constant-contrast (NCC) imagery that is derived from it.  Like several other VIIRS bands, this band is now being downloaded from the Wisconsin PEATE (via a McIDAS-X server for VIIRS imagery) and displayed online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp.  (Although images are captured regularly, no attempt is made to display all VIIRS granules for any band or product.)  The DNB images are (by default) stretched linearly (for display purposes) on an image-by-image basis, otherwise the very wide range of radiances makes a fixed display not very useful.  However, the linear stretching results in a poor display for images with large contrasts.  Therefore, an alternative logarithmic stretching is applied to each granule.  In the accompanying figure are examples of a logarithmic-stretched DNB imagery and a whole-earth view of where the granule can be found.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: (Top) An example of VIIRS DNB image with a large contrast in radiances across the granule.  The image is logarithmically enhanced compared to the source image, allowing for easier viewing of more of the image.  (Bottom) is the same VIIRS granule re-mapped into a Mollweide projection of the world, to help locate single granule images. This particular granule is over the Arctic Ocean north of Europe and near Svalbard Islands.

Ice edge in VIIRS multispectral imagery:  Among the specifications/requirements for VIIRS imagery as a Key Performance Product (KPP) is the ability to do “manual interpretation of sea ice extent, concentration and ice edges in multispectral imagery … facilitated by use of false color composite images of the VIIRS Imagery reflectance and brightness temperature imagery bands”.  This ability is highlighted in the attached image, the center portion of a VIIRS granule showing the southeastern coast of Greenland, with Iceland in the bottom of the image.  Ice is cyan colored (but so are some ice clouds in the lower-right of the image), and low clouds are white in this natural-color/RGB image combination.  This product is available both at 750 m resolution from the VIIRS M-bands and at 375 m resolution from the VIIRS I-bands.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: (Top) An example of VIIRS natural-color/RGB M-band image combination over the southeastern coast of Greenland, clearly showing the ice extent into the Norwegian Sea and toward Iceland (at the bottom of the image).  Ice is cyan colored, whereas low clouds are white. Note the detailed ice edge, as well as shadows of the Greenland mountains due to the low sun angle in this image. (Bottom) is the VIIRS granule re-mapped into a Mollweide projection of the world, to help locate single granule images.

VIIRS Imagery Presentation: D. Hillger, as VIIRS Imagery co-lead, gave a teleconference presentation on 18 January 2013 to the Suomi NPP EDR (Environmental Data Record) Product Review panel.  The purpose of the presentation was to support the Provisional maturity status for non-day-night VIIRS Imagery.  The expected outcome is a recommendation from the review panel to the Algorithm Engineering Review Board (AERB) that current VIIRS Imagery is at the provisional level of maturity, as defined by the Board.  Note however, that the day-night band is lagging this maturity level and is not part of this provisional review.  (D. Hillger)

One more RAMMB Windows XP workstation has been replaced with a new Windows 7 workstation.   One old Windows XP workstation remains.  That upgrade is pending STAR hardware procurement.  (D. Molenar)

New AWIPS1 workstation configuration is complete.  The upgrade replaces the existing 7 year old AWIPS1 workstation. (D. Molenar)

New hardware has been procured and configured to provide AWIPS2 LDM real-time Proving Ground product distribution.   Simulated WRF imagery, GeoColor imagery, and the GOES Low Cloud/Fog decision aid are being sent to NWS Central Region headquarters, the Boulder, CO Forecast Office, and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. (D. Molenar)

New hardware has been procured and configured to replace the RAMMB/CIRA backup GVAR ingest and archive server.   The old server was 6 years old.  GVAR ingest software was also upgraded to provide additional data ingest and service fail safe capabilities. (D. Molenar)

Transition of external users to the new RAMMB/CIRA McIDAS ADDE product server is complete.   The new server provides GOES and TPW products to a variety of research and operational clients. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Grasso L.D, D.W. Hillger, C. Schaaf, Z. Wang, R.L. Brummer, and R. DeMaria, 2013: Use of MODIS 16 Day Albedos in Generating GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Imagery.  J. Appl. Remote Sens., 7:1, 073584; doi: 10.1117/1.JRS.7.073584 (February)

Li, X., J.A. Zhang, X. Yang, G. Pichel, M. DeMaria, D. Long, and Z. Li, 2013: Tropical cyclone morphology from spaceborne synthetic aperture radar. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 215-230. (March)

Meyer, T.C., T.J. Lang, S.A. Rutledge, W.A. Lyons, S.A. Cummer, G. Lu, and D.T. Lindsey, 2013. Radar and lightning analyses of gigantic jet-producing storms. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118:7, 2872-2888, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50302.

Noh, Y. J., C. J. Seaman, T. H. Vonder Haar, and G. Liu, 2013: In situ aircraft measurements of water content profiles in various midlatitude mixed-phase clouds. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 52, D110202, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0202.1.

Setvak, M., K. Bedka, D.T. Lindsey, A. Sokol, Z. Charvat, J. Stastka, P.K. Wang, 2013: A-Train observations of deep convective storm tops. Atmospheric Research, 123, 229-248. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.06.020 (April)

• Nonrefereed

Apodaca, K., M. Zupanski, M. Zhang, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, G. DeMaria, and L.D. Grasso, 2013: Evaluating the potential impact of assimilating satellite lightning data utilizing hybrid variational ensemble methods, Ninth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 6-10 January, Austin, TX.

DeMaria, M., K.D. Musgrave, R. Gall, and F. Toepfer, 2013: Statistical Post-Processing Techniques to Improve Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)  Model Guidance (Invited).  AMS Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction. 6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Hillger, D.W., T. Kopp, S.D. Miller, D.T. Lindsey, C. Seaman, 2013: Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery after 1 Year.  AMS Ninth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Longmore, S., J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, 2013:  A Pseudo Object Oriented netCDF Application Interface Layer to “Simplify” Access to Satellite and Future Atmospheric Datasets.  AMS 29th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies.  6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Miller, S.D., 2013: A New Frontier of Nighttime Environmental Sensing Brought to Light by the Suomi NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band.  AMS Ninth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Schumacher, A.B., and M. DeMaria, 2013: The 48-hour NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product, 67th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 5-7 March 2013, College Park, MD.

Schumacher, A.B. M. DeMaria, R. Berg, E. Gibney and R. Knabb, 2013: Recent Advancements in the Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Program.  AMS Special Symposium on the Next Level of Predictions in Tropical Meteorology: Techniques, Usage, Support, and Impacts. 6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Wendoloski, E., M. DeMaria, J.F, Dostalek, 2013:  Lightning Observations and Tropical Cyclogenesis.  AMS Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data.  6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, M.J. Brennan, D. Brown, R.D. Knabb, R.T. DeMaria, A.B. Schumacher, C.A. Lauer, D.P. Roberts, C.R. Sampson, P. Santos, D. Sharp, K.A. Winters, 2013: Improvements to the Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Model, Wea. Forecasting.

Hillger, D.W., T. Kopp, T. Lee, D.T. Lindsey, C. Seaman, S.D. Miller, J. Solbrig, S.Q. Kidder, S. Bachmeier, T. Jasmin, and T. Rink, 2013: First Light Imagery from Suomi NPP VIIRS,  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.E. Peak, J. Cummings, W.H. Schubert, 2013: Upper Oceanic Energy Response to Tropical Cyclone Passage. Journal of Climate.

Knapp, K.R., J.A. Knaff, C. Sampson, G. Riggio, A.D. Schnapp, 2013: A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record, Mon. Wea. Rev.

Seaman, C.J. and S.D. Miller, 2013: VIIRS Captures Aurora Motions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., D.T. Lindsey, L.D. Grasso, D.W. Hillger, 2013: Synthetic Satellite Imagery Development at CIRA, 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Chirokova, G., M. DeMaria, R.T. DeMaria, 2013: Applications of JPSS Imagers and Sounders to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting. 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Seaman, C., D.W. Hillger, S.D. Miller, D.T. Lindsey, 2013: Suomi-NPP VIIRS Imagery: RGB Applications and Product Development at CIRA, 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Apodaca, K., M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, L.D. Grasso, 2013: evaluating the potential impact of assimilating satellite lightning data utililizing hybrid (variationalensemble) methods. Tellus.

DeMaria, M., C.R. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, K.D. Musgrave, 2013: Is Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Improving? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Goni, G., J.A. Knaff, and I-I Lin, 2013: [The Tropics] Tropical cyclone heat potential [in “State of the Climate in 2012.” Bull. of the American Meteorological Society.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2013:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Jin, Y., S. Wang, J. Nachamkin, J.D. Doyle, G. Thompson, L.D. Grasso, T. Holt, J. Moskaitis, H. Jin, R.M. Hodur, Q. Zhao, M. Liu, and M. DeMaria, 2013: Evaluation of Microphysical Parameterizations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Knaff, J.A., S. Longmore, D.A. Molenar, 2013: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. Journal of Climate. 

Peak, J., C. R. Sampson, J. Cummings, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, W. Schubert, 2013: An upper ocean thermal field metrics dataset, Journal of Operational Oceanography. 

Quiring, S., A. Schumacher, and S. Guikema, 2013: Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into Decision Support Applications, Bull. of the American Meteorological Society.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2013: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Zhang, M., M. Zupanski, M-J Kim, J.A. Knaff:  Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances in TC Inner Core with NOAA Operational HWRF and a Hybrid Data Assimilation System: Danielle (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev.

• Nonrefereed 

Awards and Citations:

Presentations:

DeMaria, M., A.B. Schumacher, J.A. Knaff, R. Brummer, 2013: Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 67th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 4-8 March, College Park, MD.

D. Hillger gave a talk at Colorado State University’s Professional Development Institute (PDI) annual event, held this year on 14-16 January 2013.  The PDI consists of numerous classes where various faculty and staff volunteer to share their expertise.  Hillger’s talk was titled “Whatever happened to the US adoption of the metric system?”  The talk was well received, although attendance was light due to multiple concurrent sessions.  (Hillger has been giving a presentation on the metric theme now for 10 years, and has been involved in the metric cause since the mid-1980s.)  PDI classes given by other presenters were also attended, on topics such as Google’s Liquid Galaxy, using Social Media as part of your communications toolkit, and Prezi, an online presentation tool with capabilities different than PowerPoint. 

Knaff, J.A., R.L. Brummer, M. DeMaria, C. Landsea, M. Brennan, R. Berg, J. Schauer, 2013: Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update.  67th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 4-8 March, College Park, MD.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, S. Longmore, C.R. Sampson, 2013: Examination of Global Satellite-Based Tropical Cyclone Size Variations.  AMS Sixth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data.  6-10 January, Austin, TX.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2013: Simulated ABI Data and Convective Initiation, Warn-on-Forecast and Hazardous Weather Workshop, 4-8 February, Norman, OK.

Figure.  Participants at the 2013 Warn-on-Forecast and Hazardous Weather Workshop in Norman, OK.

Molenar, D.A., 2013: RAMMB/CIRA’s current AWIPS2 capabilities and on plans for AWIPS2 RGB product development and evaluation, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March.

Seaman, C., and D.A. Molenar, 2013: Use of RGB composite imagery in AWIPS-II, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March 2013. The talk included many examples of RGB composites that have been developed for Meteosat/SEVIRI and VIIRS – including two new fire-detection RGB products developed at CIRA – that will be applicable to GOES-R/ABI. Challenges and accomplishments in getting RGB imagery products into AWIPS-II were also discussed.

Meetings:

B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group on 4 March.  Topics at this meeting that the US supports as well as benefits from in exchanging training information included Competence Requirements for Aeronautical Meteorological Personnel, tools for satellite data visualization and processing, and the Train the Trainer Event in conjunction with the NOAA Satellite Conference that will be held in April.   

Posters:

Bikos, D., D.T. Lindsey, L.D. Grasso, 2013: Synthetic Imagery of Fog and Wave Clouds, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March.

Bikos, D., E. Szoke, S.Q. Kidder, and S.D. Miller, 2013: Recent examples of the Orographic Rain Index (ORI) satellite product, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March.

Seaman, C., D.W. Hillger and S. Miller, 2013: Suomi-NPP VIIRS Imagery: RGB applications and product development at CIRA, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March.

Seaman, C. and D.T. Lindsey, 2013: Suomi-NPP VIIRS Imagery: High-resolution views of thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, NOAA Satellite Science Week virtual conference, 18-22 March.

Notes:

Dr. Athelstan Spilhaus Brown Bag Seminar: The NOAA Central Library hosted a seminar titled “Dr. Athelstan Spilhaus: How a South African Scallywag Became “The Flywheel of American Science”” on 7 March 2013, presented by Sharon Moen of the University of Minnesota Sea Grant.  Because most of Dr. Spilhaus’ activity was many years ago now, his name is not well known among those who are younger.  The seminar topic was of special interest to me, having been familiar (as a child) with Dr. Spilhaus’ weekly science-oriented comic strip called “Our New Age,” syndicated in more than 100 newspapers around the world from 1957 to 1973.  (Apparently the comic strip was merely his hobby, but certainly came from his scientific mind!)  It was one of the few educational comics of the time, one that helped inspire me to pursue a scientific career.  Dr. Spilhaus became an advisor to President Kennedy and was involved in the launch of US’ first satellite, Explorer-1, among many other national and international activities.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: As an example of Dr. Spilhaus outreach activities, this pro metric system cartoon was published in 1971 in the comics section of many national newspapers. The author is Athelstan Spilhaus, Ph.D., a pioneer in early meteorology and oceanography.

Bill Pichel from NESDIS/STAR visited RAMMB the week of February 8 to discuss an on-going project to use SAR data to analyze tropical cyclones. Parameters from the storm environments from the SHIPS intensity model database will be added to the SAR tropical cyclone database to help stratify the SAR cases and relate features to intensity changes. (M. DeMaria)

D. Molenar attended the AWIPS2 Experimental Products Development Team (EPDT) Java plugin development training sessions hosted by SPoRT in Huntsville, AL, from March 11-14. Participation in the bi-weekly EPDT training telecons is ongoing. (D. Molenar)