Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Updates to the Monte Carlo wind speed probability product (MC model): Several updates have been made the MC model. The updates include replacing the linear forecast interpolation scheme with a more precise spline fit scheme, applying a bias correction to the model track error statistics to provide consistency between NHC’s uncertainty products, and applying a bias correction to the radii-CLIPER used by the MC model to improve the accuracy of the wind speed probabilities for exceptionally small or large (e.g. 2012’s Hurricane Sandy) tropical cyclones (Figure 1). Verification over a 3-year sample suggests that the first 2 updates generally improve the MC model at all forecast times while the radii bias correction, in its current form, is degrading the wind speed probability Brier scores. (A. Schumacher)

Figure 1. 34-kt wind speed probabilities for Hurricane Sandy before (left) and after (center) radii bias correction.
Observed 34-kt winds are shown for comparison (right, in orange).

Figure 2. Improvement in Brier score for 34-kt (left) and 64-kt (right) wind speed probabilities for a sample of 2011-2013 Atlantic tropical cyclones.

S-NPP TC Intensity and Structure estimates proceeding towards operational implementation: The S-NPP TC Products (NTCP) algorithm, supported under the NESDIS PSDI program, successfully completed its Operational Readiness Review (ORR) on 11 March 2014. The NTCP will be briefed at the SPSRB meeting on 15 April 2015 where a decision will be made regarding its final transition to operations. (A. Schumacher, J. Knaff, S. Longmore, J. Dostalek)

Progress on TC Wind Radii Tool: In partial response to the WMO’s recommendation for the research community to develop tools that represent the TC surface wind field, a new tool that requires just four routine pieces of information: 1) storm motion, 2) storm intensity, 3) storm location, and 4) an estimate of the 500 km tangential winds to produce estimates of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii around a TC has been developed. Item 4 can be estimated from a model analysis, historical distributions, or directly from IR satellite imagery. The tool has a couple immediate applications including: 1) providing wind radii for routine Dvorak intensity estimates and HIE intensity estimates, and 2) providing wind radii for stochastically generated TC tracks for climate impact and risk studies. An example of wind radii estimates from the TAFB Dvorak intensity estimates is shown below and compared to the working best track (Fig 1k). A manuscript is being prepared for publication. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1k. Twelve-hourly Dvorak intensity and wind radii estimates based on storm location, motion, intensity
and the matching IRimage (left) and working best track wind radii estimates (right).

Consensus wind radii forecasts method was developed: The method makes use of current tropical cyclone tracker output from several numerical weather prediction systems and combines them to provide skillful guidance for tropical cyclone forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. A manuscript entitled “A consensus forecast for tropical cyclone gale wind radii” by C. Sampson (NRLMRY) and J. Knaff was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. (J. Knaff)

Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Dropsonde Collocation: Real-time dropsonde/AMSU retrieval collocations have been added to the RAMMB-CIRA TC Real-Time Page, http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/. This display joins the dropsonde/ATMS collocations and the ATMS MPI estimates, which were leveraged from the JPSS-PGRR_TC project. The product displays the vertical temperature and moisture profiles of dropsondes collocated with AMSU retrievals in the vicinity of tropical cyclones. The AMSU retrieval closest to the dropsonde is selected, and must be within one hour and 100 km from the dropsonde release time and location. Additional information included on the collocation includes the ATCF tropical cyclone id, the tropical cyclone heading angle, the distance from the TC center to the dropsonde, and the horizontal distance between the dropsonde release location and the AMSU retrieval. A collocation will be displayed for any tropical cyclone within 2000 km of a dropsonde. Figure 1 is a screen capture of this portion of the TC Real-Time page for Hurricane Edouard (2014). The online availability of collocations between dropsondes and retrievals allows for the monitoring of the performance of satellite retrievals as a tropical cyclone is occurring. (G. Chirokova, J. Dostalek, K. Micke, R. DeMaria)

Figure 1. Screen capture from the RAMMB-CIRA TC Real-Time page of Hurricane Edouard,
showing the dropsonde collocations with an AMSU retrieval, an ATMS retrieval, as well as the ATMS MPI estimate.

Development of automated objective eye-detection algorithm: As part of the JPSS-PGRR-TC project, last quarter the automated eye detection algorithm was trained to perform eye/no-eye classification on GOES-IR imagery. A set of cases for which the automated eye-detection algorithm performed poorly on was examined. It was discovered that many cases where a small eye is present were incorrectly classified as having no eye. Currently the algorithm uses GOES-IR data as input and as a result, much of the information around the eye is lost due to the low resolution of the data (Figure 1). Work has been started on testing the automated eye-detection algorithm with high-resolution VIIRS data to overcome this limitation. (R. DeMaria)

Figure 1. (a) A small eye as depicted by GOES imagery (4 km resolution) and (b) the VIIRS I5-band imagery
(375 m resolution; the image is shown at reduced resolution).

ATMS soundings correction based on comparison to dropsondes: As part of the JPSS-PGRR-TC project, the ATMS soundings were adjusted based on the comparison with dropsonde soundings. A database of approximately 350 Atlantic dropsondes collocated to ATMS and GFS soundings within 100 km was created. ATMS-MIRS, GFS, and dropsonde data for the years 2012-2014 were used to create a database. Figure 1 (Left) shows the number of dropsondes available as a function of distance from the storm center. All collocated dropsondes were split into 100 km bins, at distances from 0 to 1000 km from the storm center, and bias, MAE, and RMSE were calculated as function of pressure and distance to the storm center. It was found that at the center of the storm (0-100 km) ATMS-MIRS soundings are usually better than the GFS. At 300-800 km from the storm center, the ATMS-MIRS soundings usually have a dry and cold bias at the surface, and usually have smaller errors than the GFS soundings. Closer to the surface, approximately below 800 mb, GFS soundings tend to have smaller errors. The MPI estimates were recalculated based on bias corrected ATMS-MIRS soundings, and averaged between 300 – 800 km from the storm center. Figure 2 (Left) shows ATMS-only profiles originally used for MPI estimates, and bias-corrected ATMS profiles (Right). The bias-corrected soundings seem to better represent the boundary layer. In addition, in the corrected soundings the environmental CAPE value is no longer equal to zero. The MPI estimates based on the bias-corrected soundings tend to be smaller than the original MPI estimates. The evaluation of the RII algorithm with the corrected MPI estimates is being conducted. (G. Chirokova)

Figure 1.

Left: Number of dropsondes available as a function of distance from the storm center. Center: Temperature bias, MAE, and RMSE for GFS and ATMS-MIRS soundings relative to dropsondes: blue, green, and magenta represent the bias, RMSE, and MAE for ATMS, respectively; cyan, yellow, and magenta represent values for GFS. Right: same as Center, but for mixing ratio.

Figure 2. Left: T (red) and Td (blue) as estimated from ATMS-MIRS data. Profiles are averaged between 200 – 800 km.
Right: Same, but estimated from bias-corrected ATMS-MIRS soundings.

Visit to the National Hurricane Center: A. Schumacher visited the National Hurricane Center from 26-28 January 2015 to meet with NHC GOES-R/JPSS Satellite Proving Ground points of contact and TAFB Satellite Liaison M. Folmer. (A. Schumacher)

Visit to the National Hurricane Center: A. Schumacher visited the National Hurricane Center from 2-5 March 2015 to collaborate with NHC points of contact for 2 JHT projects. (A. Schumacher)

Provided sample wind speed probability data for testing: Ran the Monte Carlo wind speed probability model for two test cases requested by Pablo Santos, NWS Miami. (A. Schumacher)

Invited talk: A. Schumacher gave an invited talk remotely entitled “Using Total Lightning Data to Improve Real-time Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts” for the Total Lightning Implementation Working Group on 20 February 2015. (A. Schumacher)

Invited talk: A. Schumacher gave an invited talk remotely entitled “Applications of GOES-R and JPSS at the National Hurricane Center” for the GOES-R Science Seminar on 31 March 2015. (A. Schumacher)

NOAA/ Environment Canada (EC) Marine Forecast Project Monthly Teleconferences: J. Knaff is participating in these monthly teleconferences. RAMMB’s role in this project is to share knowledge and products that will help with the tropical to extra-tropical cyclone forecast problem. Shared products include the airmass RGB imagery, the multi-platform (+ aircraft) tropical cyclone surface wind analysis, and the SHIPS cyclone type classifications. Monthly meetings will coordinate the larger NOAA/EC effort. (J. Knaff)

Downslope Windstorm Prediction: In collaboration with T. Wimmers (CIMSS), a few GOES Water Vapor derived predictors have been added to the Fort Collins Downslope Windstorm Prediction product. These predictors play a role in the 0-12-hour forecast time frame. The real-time product can be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/fort_collins_high_wind_probability/ (D. Lindsey)

ORI Product: A manuscript in internal review, will be submitted to a journal soon. Work on utilizing the HRRR winds in the 1.0 to 1.5 km AGL layer (rather than GFS 850 mb wind). (B. Connell)

GOES-R Synthetic Imagery over Alaska: Work continues on a GOES-R Risk Reduction project to produce synthetic ABI bands over Alaska using output from the NAM Alaska Nest model. Five bands are being generated in real time and are being sent to the LDM for the NWS. Work is underway to test the display of these bands at the Fairbanks NWS office, and once successful, they will be able to view the available bands in real time. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, D. Molenar)

Meeting with CRTM Developers: On 17 February 2015, D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, Y. Noh, R. Brummer, and D. Hillger had a teleconference with the developers of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) to discuss RAMMB/CIRA’s findings that the model has problems with reflected solar radiation. A plan to address these problems was made. (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, Y. Noh, D. Hillger, R. Brummer)

Follow-up: CRTM Meeting: On 9 March 2015, D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, Y. Noh, and D. Hillger had a telecon with the CRTM developers regarding fixing a problem with the cloud reflectances at 3.9 μm. They have been able to successfully run the CRTM and duplicate CIRA’s results. The next step is to identify and fix the bugs. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, L. Grasso, Y. Noh)

NOAA Satellite Science Week: RAMMB and CIRA scientists participated in NOAA Satellite Science Week in Boulder 23-27 February 2015. There were multiple oral and poster presentations covering ongoing work with both GOES-R and JPSS data. The presentations and posters can be downloaded from this site: http://courses.comet.ucar.edu/course/view.php?id=149. (D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, S. Miller, A. Schumacher, B Connell, J. Dostalek, G. Chirokova, E. Szoke, D. Bikos, R. DeMaria, L. Grasso, Y. Noh, C. Seaman, S. Longmore, R. Brummer, D. Hillger)

AWG Fire Dectection: All WF-ABBA hotspots were added to simulated GOES-13 imagery. Since all simulated GOES-13 imagery is available on-the-hour, all WF-ABBA hotspots from the previous hour were added into simulated imagery on-the-hour. For example, all WF-ABBA hotspots from 1900 UTC to, and including, 2000 UTC were added to the simulated GOES-13 image valid at 2000 UTC. Data from 1900 UTC was included in the simulated GOES-13 image at 1900 UTC. In December 2014, all code was sent to Brad Pierce. An example image is included below. (L. Grasso)

CRTM Developers Collaboration: A collaborative effort began with Paul van Delst, Quanhua Liu, and Jim Yoe, the CRTM developers. CIRA was able to demonstrate that the CRTM is unable to produce realistic synthetic GOES-13 imagery at 3.9 µm. At issue is the inability of the CRTM to represent solar reflection from ice clouds during “daytime.” Below are figures comparing synthetic imagery from the CIRA observational operator, the CRTM, and observed GOES-13 at 3.9 µm. (L. Grasso)

RAMMB/CIRA Collaboration with NWS Cheyenne WY Forecast Office (19 February 2015): Debra Molenar and Scott Longmore traveled to the National Weather Service Cheyenne, WY Forecast Office (CYS) to assist with AWIPS II installation of RAMMB/CIRA simulated WRF model GOES-R image products. They met with Satellite Focal Point Rebecca Mazur and Information Technology Officer Ray Gomez. The visit was part of an expanded interaction with CYS where RAMMB/CIRA research staff will travel to CYS to work forecast shifts to better understand the product needs of the forecast environment. CYS forecast staff will also travel to RAMMB/CIRA for technology exchange and training. The visit yielded a much better understanding of the forecast office AWIPS II environment, which will help RAMMB/CIRA staff tailor product installation documentation and training. (D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, S. Longmore, J. Dostalek, R. Mazur, R. Gomez)

GOES-R Assembly Viewing at Lockheed-Martin: On 24 February 2015 D. Hillger was among those invited to a special viewing of the GOES-R satellite being assembled at the Waterton Canyon Facility of Lockheed Martin just southwest of Denver CO. The tour was arranged to accommodate participants of NOAA Satellite Science Week held in Boulder CO. Tour participants did not need to dress in clean-room clothing, but viewed GOES-R thru large doors opened into the clean room. Because of positive pressure in the clean room, the high degree of cleanliness was maintained because air only exited thru the open doors. Lockheed Martin tour guides were available to answer the questions of the tour participants, many of whom are quite familiar with GOES-R and eagerly await its launch currently scheduled for March 2016. A group picture of tour participants in front of GOES-R was taken and will be available at a later date. Thanks to those who made this event possible. (D. Hillger)

StAR Website Material Delivered: D. Hillger delivered material in Word document form to T. Atkins to be formatted into the VIIRS EDR Imagery Team website for StAR JPSS. (D. Hillger)

NDE Access to VIIRS Imagery: Thanks to C. Sisko, CIRA now has access to VIIRS Imagery via NDE for products primarily requested by users: Band I1 (visible), I5 (IR), and DNB, as well as the geolocation files that accompany those image files. Access is via FTP, and data latency is on the order of 1.5 hours (as good as possible for polar-orbiting data dumped once per orbit). VIIRS Imagery appears to be available for all granules worldwide. (D. Lindsey, S. Finley)

Training metrics for the quarter:

1. Teletraining:

    5 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 5 teletraining signups, 20 students participated.

2. Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

    Registrations: 88

    Completions: 53

    LMS totals from January 2005 through 5 March 2015:

    Registrations: 7703

    Completions: 4926

    Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations: The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz. A student may have registered for multiple courses.

Completions: The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course. A student may have completed multiple courses this way. (E. Szoke, B. Connell and D. Bikos)

VISIT Satellite Chats:

Figure 1. RSO visible imagery highlighting northeast blizzard that was shown during the VISIT satellite chat on 27 January 27 March.

The chat session on 27 January 2015 featured an interactive discussion by NWS forecasters in the northeast during the 27 January 2015 blizzard (Fig. 1) as well as a presentation on a recent heavy snow event in the Texas panhandle by Todd Lindley (NWS WFO Amarillo, TX) (not shown).

Figure 2. Jason Jordan (NWS WFO Lubbock, TX) led the VISIT satellite chat on 11 February 2015.

In February, Jason Jordan (NWS WFO Lubbock, TX) led a discussion on use of the West Texas Lightning Mapping array in operations at NWS WFO Lubbock (Fig. 2). The chat sessions in January 2015 and February 2015 combined for 15 WFO’s and national centers participating.

As of 12 March 2015, there have been 70 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 120 NWS forecast office / national center signups.

Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/ (E. Szoke, B. Connell and D. Bikos)

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

    • Sky cover forecasting with synthetic imagery

    • Sky cover analysis product

    • GOES-R Split Window Difference product for Convective Initiation

    • Identification of dust via RGB (red blue green) satellite imagery

The following training sessions were updated this quarter:

    • Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4-km WRF-ARW model in forecasting Severe Thunderstorms.

VISIT web-page traffic:

    • The following is a summary of VISIT web-page traffic for the quarter (1 January 2015 through 12 March 2015), there were 4,203 pageviews:

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) The blog had 290 pageviews this quarter.

Meetings and Calls

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on 2 February 2015 and 11 March 2015.

23-27 February 2015: NOAA Satellite Science Week. E. Szoke, B. Connell and D. Bikos attended and presented posters.

1. Preparations for the SHyMet course: GOES-R Instruments, Products, and Operational Applications

• Web pages are being drafted and reviewed internally and externally with partner organizations.

   http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/goes-r_intro.asp

• Preparations for NOAA Satellite Conference, 23 April 2015 – 1 May 2015, are underway.

     o B. Connell will give a presentation on VISIT/SHyMet training activities in Session 4.1 on Thursday, 23 April 2015.

     o B. Connell is a moderator for Session 4.2 “International Perspectives on Training and User Access to Imagery and Products.”

• Preparations are being made for the NOAA/WMO Train the Trainer workshop focusing on GEONETCast on 25-26 April 2015.

    o Hands on session on how to view geotiff imagery, which are currently being made available via GNC-A, is being prepared.

    o Hands on session on how to create an RGB image utilizing MODIS and VIIRS imager is being prepared.
       This will be linked to preparations for GOES-R and the many channels that will be available on the ABI. (B. Connell)

2. Metrics for the 4 existing SHyMet courses:

Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:

Non-NOAA:

Intern: 44 Registrations; 14 known completions

Over the past couple of years, the NWS experienced budget cuts that resulted in a hiring freeze and much reduced training. It is good to see that the course completions are starting to pick up again. We continue to find bugs in the CLC LMS, so we are hopeful that the new Learning Management System will allow for easier tracking of individual modules and overall course completions. It is interesting to note that 80% of the Interns that took this course during this quarter completed it in less than a month. (B. Connell)

3. International training that builds on efforts of the VISIT and SHyMet Programs, and enhances communication and exchange of information with international training partners:

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly bilingual (English/Spanish) weather briefings (22 January 2015, 5 February 2015, and 31 March 2015). The briefings made use of VISITview software to present GOES and POES satellite imagery and SHyMet staff assisted in partial preparation for the sessions.

WMO VLab Management Group virtual meeting: B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group on 10 March 2015. Topics that are of particular interest to VISIT and SHyMet include preparations for new satellites and the NOAA Satellite conference and coordinated Train the Trainer Event during the last week of April 2015.

B. Connell participated a GEONETCast Americas (GNC-A) Coordination Group telecon on and 3 March 2015. The discussion focused on GEOTIFF files that NOAA has started broadcasting through GNC-A, as well as the organization of 4 sub-committees: Broadcast Operations, Ground Receive Stations, Content, and Users. B. Connell is on the Users sub-committee and is particularly interested in the aspect to “Develop trainings and tutorials on how to use the data and products on the system and on what software packages work with the data and products.” (B. Connell)

Monthly International Weather Briefings: The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 2 monthly bilingual (English/Spanish) weather briefings (22 January 2015, and 5 February 2015; another briefing will be held 31 March 2015). The briefings made use of VISITview software to present GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA and GoToWebinar for image and voice communication over the Internet. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the NWS International Desk at WPC/NCEP, and UCAR/JOSS-NOAA/NWS International Activities Office, as well as outside the U.S.: Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Germany, Haiti, Honduras, Panamá, Peru, and St. Kitts and Nevis. The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters and other trainers. The 2 sessions were well attended as represented by 11 countries and 30 participants each. Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussions. Typically, the sessions include a look at Water Vapor imagery for a synoptic overview of Central America and the Caribbean as well as for South America. The IR 10.7 µm imagery and Visible imagery are used to look more closely at weather features. We look at MJO patterns and the outlook, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) patterns, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and anomalies. Imagery from a recent weather feature is often highlighted. Recordings of the three sessions as well as previous sessions can be found online: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/fg_recording.asp (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products: Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 4-week archive feature: (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/

GEONETCast Americas VLab Training Channel: B. Connell participated a GEONETCast Americas (GNC-A) Coordination Group telecon on and 3 March 2015. The discussion focused on GEOTIFF files that NOAA has started broadcasting through GNC-A, as well as the organization of 4 sub-committees: Broadcast Operations, Ground Receive Stations, Content, and Users. B. Connell is on the Users sub-committee and is particularly interested in the aspect to “Develop trainings and tutorials on how to use the data and products on the system and on what software packages work with the data and products.” The group also discussed participation in the WMO/NOAA Train the Trainer Event that will take place the weekend before the NOAA Satellite Conference in April 2015. This event will focus on the many aspects of GNC-A. (B. Connell)

WMO VLab Management Group: B. Connell participated in the virtual meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Satellite Meteorology (VLab) Management Group on 10 March 2015. Topics that are of particular interest to VISIT and SHyMet include preparations for new satellites and the NOAA Satellite conference and coordinated Train the Trainer Event during the last week of April 2015. (B. Connell)

NOAA Satellite Conference: 23 April 2015 – 1 May 2015. Preparations are underway.

    o B. Connell will give a presentation on VISIT/SHyMet training activities in Session 4.1 on Thursday, 23 April 2015.

    o B. Connell is a moderator for Session 4.2 “International Perspectives on Training and User Access to Imagery and Products.”

NOAA/WMO Train the Trainer workshop 25-26 April 2015. The workshop will focus on GEONETCast.

    o Hands on session on how to view geotiff imagery, which are currently being made available via GNC-A, is being prepared.

    o Hands on session on how to create an RGB image utilizing MODIS and VIIRS imager is being prepared. This will be linked to preparations for GOES-R and the many channels that will be available on the ABI. (B. Connell)

Published:

• Refereed

Goni, G., I-I. Lin, J.A. Knaff: 2015: prepared: A subsection discussing the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), also sometimes referred to as oceanic heat content) State of the Climate in 2014 subsection, NOAA State of the Climate in 2014 Report.

Knaff, J.A., S.P. Longmore, R.T. DeMaria, and D.A. Molenar, 2015: Improved Tropical-Cyclone Flight-Level Wind Estimates Using Routine Infrared Satellite Reconnaissance. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, 463-478. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0112.1

Straka, W.C., III, C.J. Seaman, K. Baugh, K. Cole, E. Stevens and S.D. Miller, 2015: Utilization of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band for Arctic Ship Tracking and Fisheries Management. Rem. Sens., 36:7, 971-989, doi: 10.3390/rs70100971

• Nonrefereed

DeMaria, R.T., G. Chirokova, J.A. Knaff, and J.F. Dostalek, 2015: Machine Learning Algorithms for Tropical Cyclone Center Fixing and Eye Detection. 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 4-8 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., C.J. Seaman, S.D. Miller, T.J. Kopp, R. Williams, and G. Mineart, 2015: Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery Update. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellites Systems, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January. See Notes below.

Longmore, S., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, and J.A. Knaff, 2015: A Photo Storm Report Mobile Application, Processing/Distribution System, and AWIPS-II Display Concept. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January. See Notes below.

Longmore, S., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, and J.A.Knaff, 2015: An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Rogers, M.A., S.D. Miller, J.M. Haynes, A. Heidinger, S.E. Haupt, M. Sengupta, 2015: Improvements in Satellite-Derived Short-Term Insolation Forecasting: Statistical Comparisons, Challenges for Advection-Based Forecasts, and New Techniques. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, Sixth Annual Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, and R.T. DeMaria, 2015: Using Total Lightning Data to Improve Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Genesis Forecasts. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Szoke, E., S. Benjamin, C.R. Alexander, E.P. James, J. Brown, D.T. Lindsey, and B. Jamison, 2015: HRRR model performance for the September 2013 northeastern Colorado floods. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, 29th Conference on Hydrology, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Szoke, E., R.L. Brummer, D. Bikos, S.D. Miller, D.A. Molenar, B.H. Connell and M. DeMaria, 2015: CIRA Proving Ground Activities in Preparation for the GOES-R Era. AMS 95th Annual Meeting, 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Ali, M., N. Sharma, J.A. Knaff, 2015: A Soft-computing Cyclone Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric Science Letters.

Gochis, D., R. Schumacher, K. Friedrich, N. Doesken, M. Kelsch, J. 4 Sun, K. Ikeda, D.T. Lindsey, A. Wood, B. Dolan, S. Matrosov, A. Newman, K. Mahoney, S. Rutledge, R. Johnson, P. Kucera, P. Kennedy, D. Sempere-Torres, M. Steiner, R. Roberts, J. Wilson, W. Yu, V. Chandrasekar, R. Rasmussen, A. Anderson, B. Brown, 2015: The great Colorado flood of September 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, K.-S. Lim, A. Clark, D. Bikos, 2015: Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery. Monthly Weather Review.

Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, C.J. Seaman, and B. Stocks, 2015: Satellite Observations of Plume-Like Streaks in a Cloud Field. J. Appl. Remote Sensing.

Knaff, J.A., S.P. Longmore, R.T. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, 2015: Improved tropical cyclone flight-level wind estimates using routine infrared satellite reconnaissance. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, 2015: After a Decade are Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Gail Force Wind Radii Forecasts now Skilfull? Weather and Forecasting.

Lang, T.J., S.A. Rutledge, B. Dolan, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, D.T. Lindsey, 2015: Lightning in Wildfire Smoke Plumes Observed in Colorado during Summer 2012. Mon.Wea.Rev.

Longmore, S., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, J.A. Knaff, 2015: An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

Schmit, T., S. Goodman, M. Gunshor, J. Sieglaff, A. Heidinger, S. Bachmeier, A. Terborg, J. Feltz, K. Ba, S. Rudlosky, D.T. Lindsey, R. Rabin, and C. Schmidt, 2015: Rapid refresh imagery of significant events: preparing users for the next generation of geostationary operational satellites. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Seaman, C. J. and S. D. Miller, 2015: A dynamic scaling algorithm for the optimized digital display of VIIRS Day/Night Band imagery. Int. J. Rem. Sens.

Tourville, N., G. Stephens, M. DeMaria, 2015: Cloudsat and A-TRAIN Observations of Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Goni, G.J.,J.A. Knaff, and I-I Lin, 2015: [The Tropics] Tropical cyclone heat potential [in “State of the Climate in 2014”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2015:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Kaplan, J., C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.P. Kossin, C.S. Velden, J.J. Cione, J.P. Dunion, J.A. Knaff, J. A. Zhang, J.F. Dostalek, J.D. Hawkins, T.F. Lee, and J.E. Solbrig, 2015: Evaluating environmental impacts on tropical cyclone rapid intensification predictability utilizing statistical models. Wea. Forecasting.

Sampson, C. R., J. Hansen, P. Wittman, J.A. Knaff, and A B.Schumacher, 2015: Wave probabilities consistent with official tropical cyclone forecasts. Ocean Model.

Sampson, C.R., and J.A. Knaff, 2015: A consensus forecast for tropical cyclone gale wind radii. Wea. Forecasting.

• Nonrefereed 

Seaman, C., D.W. Hillger, T. Kopp, R. Williams, S.D. Miller and D.T. Lindsey, 2015: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Imagery Environmental Data Record (EDR) User’s Guide. NOAA Technical Report, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, DC.

Presentations and Posters:

Bhatia, K., D. Nolan, and A B. Schumacher, 2015: Guidance on Intensity Guidance, 69th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-6 March, Miami, FL.

Bikos, D., E. Szoke, S.D. Miller, S.Q. Kidder, C. Kummerow, C. Combs, S.P. Longmore, and P. Brown, 2015: An orographically adjusted GPM precipitation retrieval for NOAA’s QPE over mountainous terrain. NOAA Satellite Science Week. Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Chirokova, G., M. DeMaria, R.T. DeMaria, J.F. Dostalek, J.L. Beven, 2015: Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with JPSS ATMS-MIRS Retrievals, NOAA Satellite Science Week Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PDF

Chirokova, G., M. DeMaria, R.T. DeMaria, J.F. Dostalek, and J.L. Beven, 2015: Use of JPSS ATMS-MIRS Retrievals to Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting. Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

 Figure: Galina Chirokova presenting poster at the AMS 2015 Annual Meeting in Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., D.E. Bikos, E. Szoke, S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, A. Mostek, B. Motta, L. Veeck, 2015: Satellite Training Activities: VISIT, SHyMet, and WMO VLab, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Connell, B.H., 2015: An Observational Approach for Training to Enhance User Understanding of New Channels on VIIRS and GOES-R, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

DeMaria, M., J. Beven, M. Brennan, H. Cobb, N. Ramos, A.B. Schumacher, and M. Folmer, 2015: The 2014 Satellite Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center, 69th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-6 March, Miami, FL.

DeMaria, R.T., G. Chirokova, J.A. Knaff, and J.F. Dostalek, 2015: Machine Learning Algorithms for Tropical Cyclone Center Fixing and Eye Detection. 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January. PDF

DeMaria, R.T., J.A. Knaff, J.F. Dostalek, and G. Chirokova, 2015: Objective Methods for Tropical Cyclone Center Fixing and Eye Detection, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Grasso, L.D., Y-J. Noh, D.T. Lindsey, D.W. Hillger, 2015: GOES-R ABI imagery at 3.9 and 2.25 µm, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Hillger, D.W., S.D. Miller, L.D. Grasso, 2015: True Color Imagery for GOES-R: Creating a Green Band for ABI, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Knaff, J.A., 2015: Diagnosing tropical cyclone structure. NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, Co, 23-27 February.

Knaff, J.A., A.B. Schumacher, R.T. DeMaria, G. Chirokova, C. Slocum, 2015: Diagnosing Tropical Cyclone Structure, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Knaff, J.A., R.T. DeMaria, S.P. Longmore, D.A. Molenar, K.D. Musgrave, 2015: Preparing for GOES-R and JPSS: New Tropical Cyclone Tools Based on 30 years of Continuous GOES IR Imagery, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PDF

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, 2015: GOES-R Synthetic Imagery over Alaska, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Lindsey, D.T., A. Heidinger, A. Layns, 2015: GOES-R and JPSS Risk Reduction Status, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Longmore, S.P., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, J.A. Knaff, 2015: An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring, 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies, Session: “Crowdsourcing Data and Data Portals – Part I,” Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Longmore, S.P., S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, J.A. Knaff, 2015: An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring, Earth and Space Science Informatics Conference, Session: “Near-Real-Time Data for Earth Science and Space Weather Applications I, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Miller, S.D., 2015: Realizing the Scientific and Operational Utilities of the VIIRS Day/Night Band–An Exercise in Dark Adaptation, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February.

Miller, S.D., Y-J. Noh, A.K. Heidinger, 2015: Liquid-Top Mixed-Phase Cloud Detection from Shortwave-Infrared Satellite Radiometer Observations, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PDF

Molenar, D.A., S.P. Longmore, 2015: CIRA GOES and JPSS RGB Product Development Updates for AWIPS II D2D and NCP, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Schumacher, A.B., 2015: Upgrades to the Operational Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Program, 69th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-6 March, Miami, FL.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, and R.T. DeMaria, 2015: Using Total Lightning Data to Improve Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Genesis Forecasts, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PDF

Schumacher, A.B., O. Vila, V.M. Vincente, 2015: Evaluating Subjective Uncertainty Information in National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Discussions. 10th Symposium on Societal Applications, Phoenix, AZ, 4-8 January.

Schumacher, A.B. and V. Vincente, 2015: Evaluating Subjective Uncertainty Information in National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Discussions, AMS Annual Meeting, 5-9 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Seaman, C., S.D. Miller, D.W. Hillger, 2015: Seeing the Light: Use of the VIIRS Day/Night Band in the Arctic, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Stevens, E., C. Seaman, S. Alden, H. Strader, 2015: VIIRS Imagery and the 2014 Funny River Wildfire in Alaska, and Plans for the 2015 Fire Season, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February.

Szoke, E., D.E Bikos, R.L. Brummer, H. Gosden, D.T. Lindsey, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, S.D. Miller, and C. Seaman, 2015: An Update of CIRA’s GOES-R and JPSS Proving Ground Activities, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PPT

Szoke, E., D.E. Bikos, G. Stano, P. Kennedy, S. Rutledge, R. Kleyla, D.Barjenbruch, R. Glancy, R. Cox, and R. Mazur, 2015: A Possible Relationship Between Total Lightning and Non-Supercell Tornadogenesis, NOAA Satellite Science Week, Boulder, CO, 23-27 February. PDF

Notes:

AMS Annual Meeting Presentation: D.W. Hillger gave an oral presentation on 8 January 2015 at the AMS National Meeting in Phoenix AZ, in particular the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellites Systems. The title of the talk was “Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery Update,” which explained VIIRS Imagery Team activities over the past year, including VIIRS Imagery reaching Validation Maturity stage 3, leading into continuing Long Term Monitoring activities for VIIRS Imagery, as well as some future plans to continue/expand low-latency VIIRS access, and the eventual production of EDR Imagery for all 16 VIIRS M bands. The talk also included recent VIIRS images of Typhoon Hagupit. Hillger also arranged for CIRA/RAMMB to provide VIIRS DNB Imagery of Phoenix for use by M. Goldberg in one of his presentations at the Conference, and was co-author on another talk titled “A Photo Storm Report Mobile Application, Processing/Distribution System, and AWIPS-II Display Concept,” part of the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies. Primary author of that presentation was S.P. Longmore of CIRA/RAMMB. Hillger was also co-chair of a 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Climatology session, covering the “Display and use of satellite data for both research and operational purposes, including weather, ocean, and climate monitoring and forecasting.” In addition, many contacts related to VIIRS Imagery and other RAMMB/CIRA activities were pursued, to facilitate ongoing and future research efforts. (D. Hillger, S. Longmore)

S.P. Longmore, S.D. Miller, D. Bikos, D.T. Lindsey, E. Szoke, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, J.A. Knaff, 2015: Paper accepted (March 17, 2015): An Automated Mobile Phone Photo Relay and Display Concept Applicable to Operational Severe Weather Monitoring” was accepted with minor revisions to Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. The paper presents interactions with NWS forecasters about photo storm reports via social media and a new conceptual framework, architectural design, and pathway toward implementation of a formalized photo report system. (S. Longmore, S. Miller, D. Bikos, E. Szoke, R. Brummer, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar, D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

Stephen Volz Presentation: All 4 RAMMB feds contributed slides of their work as part of a presentation for NESDIS Assistant Administrator Stephen Volz’ visit to StAR on 10 February 2015. Because of limited teleconference time, and to avoid information overload, only one person from the RAMM Branch (J. Knaff) was selected to present information directly to Volz. (D. Hillger, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff)

CSU Dean of Engineering Open Forum: The CSU Dean of Engineering, David McLean, visited CIRA on 19 March 2015, which included an open forum for questions and answers. Interestingly, much of the discussion revolved around parking issues and bus service to our foothills campus location. However, there were also questions about grant management and infrastructure. CSU is planning an expansion in both student size and facilities in the next several years. (D. Hillger and many others from CIRA)

Jason Dunion Visit: Jason Dunion, a scientist at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory’s Hurricane Research Division and the University of Miami, visited RAMMB and CIRA from 4-5 February 2015. Jason has been a collaborator on several recent projects and is heavily involved in several tropical cyclone field projects. While visiting, Jason gave a seminar entitled “The Tropical Cyclone Diurnal Cycle – The Great Hurricane Exhale” and met with CIRA/RAMMB tropical cyclone group members to discuss current and future research collaborations. We hope to have Jason visit annually to expand the scope of our collaborations. We also thank CIRA for sponsoring his visit. (J. Knaff, A. Schumacher)

Michael Fiorino Visit: Michael Fiorino (NOAA/ESRL) visited J. Knaff on 23 January 2015. They discussed a wide range of tropical cyclone forecasting problems including the use of the Multi-satellite Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis and satellite rain rate (CMORPH) fields to develop a linear inverse model for tropical cyclone structure and intensity change. Mike then attended C. Slocum’s preliminary exam. (J. Knaff)

NWS Visitors:  On 22 January 2015, five visitors from the National Weather Service forecast offices in Cheyenne and Boulder visited CIRA.  Both offices are heavily involved in evaluating experimental products provided by RAMMB/CIRA as part of the GOES-R Proving Ground, and face-to-face meetings of this nature are very beneficial in sharing ideas and making plans for the future.  (D. Lindsey, D. Molenar, J. Knaff, S. Miller, E. Szoke, D. Bikos, B. Connell, S. Longmore, J. Dostalek, K. Musgrave)

Figure. RAMMB and CIRA personnel, along with five visitors from the National Weather Offices in Cheyenne and Boulder.

JPSS Visitor: Laura Ellen Defoe visited CIRA on 22 January 2015, in particular several members of the JPSS Imagery Team, regarding the DNB end-of-scan non-linearity issues discovered during JPSS-1 thermal testing.  The main question explored was what aggregation mode solution was preferred to alleviate the effects on DNB and NCC Imagery.  It is expected that S. Miller will provide feedback for CIRA regarding DNB Imagery, and that the impacts on Ground Track Mercator (GTM) remapped NCC Imagery are expected to be minimal, but should certain be considered as part of the solution.  (D. Hillger, S. Miller, C. Seaman, Y-J. Noh)

Weather and Forecasting Associate Editor: D. Lindsey accepted an invitation to become an Associate Editor for Weather and Forecasting. (D. Lindsey)

CFC Gold Award: RAMMB personnel were awarded the Combined Federal Campaign (CFC) Gold Award for 2014 and received the plaque below. Additionally, D. Lindsey received a Certificate of Appreciation “In recognition of outstanding leadership of the 2014 Rocky Mountain Region CFC.” (D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, D. Molenar, D. Hillger)

Satellite Class Lectures: D. Hillger presented a full lecture to Tom Vonder Haar’s ATS373 class on 2 March 2015. The lecture covered JPSS Imagery Validation during the post-launch checkout of Suomi NPP, events that spanned the last 3+ years of activity by the JPSS Imagery Team. D. Lindsey presented a second full lecture to the class on 4 March 2015. This one focused on geostationary satellite imagery interpretation and the improvements expected from GOES-R. (D. Hillger and D. Lindsey)

CAC Renewal Pilgrimage: All 4 RAMMB feds traveled to Cheyenne WY on 11 February 2015 to renew their CAC cards for another 3 years. (D. Hillger, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff)

Travel Manager Recertification: All 4 RAMMB feds and Administrative Assistant Rosemary Borger completed their Travel Manager recertification before the required deadline. (D. Hillger, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, R. Borger)

GSA Travel Card Training: All four RAMMB feds have completed their required GSA Travel Card training. (D. Hillger, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff)

AMS Advanced Python Short Course: Galina Chirokova attended the Advanced Python Short Course on Jan 3-4, 2015 at the AMS 95th Annual Meeting in Phoenix, AZ. The class was taught by Jonathan Rocher from Enthought Python. The class covered use of scientific packages in python and processing large data sets, including dealing with scientific data formats like HDF5. The special emphasis was on different approached for optimizing the python code. The class was extremely useful and very well taught. I would highly recommend it to anybody using python. (G. Chirokova)

PRSE-CIRA Fellowship Awarded: A proposal to support a PhD. Student in the Atmospheric Science Department through a combination of CIRA and CSU Programs of Research and Scholarly Excellence (PRSE) has been awarded to Prof. T. Birner (CSU) and J. Knaff (NOAA). PRSE funding comes from the CSU Vice President of Research and the CIRA funding comes from CI Task 1 moneys. The fellowship will sponsor the first year of the student at CSU and is designed to improve science interactions between CIRA and the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science. The proposed work will examine the near tropopause cooling associated with deep tropical convection over tropical cyclones, sometimes called the convective cold top equilibrium, using a suite of remotely sensed data (e.g., IR, COSMIC, CloudSat) and simple balanced vortex models. (J. Knaff)

After School Weather Club: Scientists at CIRA volunteered for the weekly after-school weather club on Tuesdays for Putnam Elementary (K-5). This spring session started 10 March 2015 and will run until 12 May 2015. There is a 90-minute session each week. Sessions included helping with homework and leading a weather related activity. The topics covered so far include measuring temperature and wind speed and viewing GOES imagery through RAMSDIS online – the kids did a great job identifying snow and showing their geography knowledge. Volunteers included Bernie Connell and Matt Rogers. Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great! (B. Connell)

Presentation to Middle School Students: D. Lindsey spoke to 8th grade math students about weather, and how math is used in meteorology. (D. Lindsey)