An HTML-formatted case study of the 25 May 1999 west Texas severe thunderstorm event has been prepared for presentation at the 3rd annual High Plains Severe Weather workshop to be held in Great Falls, Montana in Septembe 2000. The presentation focuses on west Texas dryline storms that formed in a weakly-sheared environment, but produced tornadoes and large hail. For this case, both right- and left-movers were long-lived and severe.
A conference paper titled “A Satellite Perspective of the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Comments on Lightning Activity” by D. Bikos, J. Weaver, B. Zajac, and B. Motta was presented at the National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 in Norman, OK, May 1-3, 2000. For more information see:
http://parker.gcn.ou.edu/~kkd/may3.htm
An entire future issue of the Bulletin of the AMS (date unknown) is being planned that will summarize the material presented at the 3 May symposium. An article on the RAMM team’s presentation is being prepared for that publication. Some of the major talking points are:
1) An approaching jet streak could be tracked on both visible and water vapor imagery well in advance of the tornadic activity. Cumulus clouds were seen to form behind the leading edge of the jet cirrus, even in the dry sector back in west Texas.
2) A low-level boundary identified in the visible satellite imagery played a crucial role in convective initiation and location of subsequent storms.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 1. Visible image showing a low-level boundary that played a critical role in the events of 3 May 1999.
3) The event was characterized by an anomalously high percentage of positive cloud-to-ground lightning that seemed to be correlated with the most severe activity.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 2. Plot showing 5-minute cloud-to-ground lightning for the Moore, Oklahoma storm on 3 May 1999. Bar at the bottom indicates tornadic activity with Fujita scale for indication of intensity.
The paper titled “Severe Thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A Satellite Training Case” by J. Weaver, J. Dostalek, B. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom is in press at National Weather Digest. The final publication date has not yet been assigned.
No new progress to report on the Birmingham case study.
Several projects were initiated to demonstrate the utility of the RAMM Tropical Cyclone IR Archive. These include: 1) motion relative average images, 2) large sample composites, 3) IR cloud area vs. tropical cyclone size, 4) detecting rapid intensification, 5) cloud asymmetry measurements, and 6) input for statistical intensity forecasts. The archive now contains approximately 28,000 images with 114 tropical cyclones on 17 CDs. Phase two of the project is planned for the next several months. That work includes quality control, data file archiving, and inclusion of “Best Track” data. CIRA student hourly support is being utilized for this work. A conference paper summarizing the project was presented at the 24th AMS Hurricane Conference. The paper gives brief descriptions of research and product development using the IR Archive that is both underway and planned for the future. A paper describing the use of the IR imagery in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) was also presented at the conference.
Another project was expanded to investigate specific characteristics of the intensification periods for the 20 intense (Category 3 or higher) Atlantic hurricanes during 1995-1999. Comparisons were made among Best Track, aircraft, and objective IR satellite intensities. Aircraft center fix observations of central pressure were used to document onset of rapid intensification and intensification rates. The RAMM IR Tropical Cyclone Archive wa s used to document time of first definite, persistent eye and relationships to intensification rates. In addition, image characteristics were assessed according to the time of onset of rapid intensification, in comparison to the other hurricanes. Qualitative comparisons of the image characteristics of rapidly intensifying hurricanes vs. non-rapid cases were identified.
Updates to the real-time AMSU-derived tropical cyclone products continue. The system is now completely year 2000 compliant. The interested reader can refer to:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/tropic/amsustrm.asp
A new tropical rainfall potential product has been created. The product estimates the 24-hour precipitation potential of a tropical cyclone by integrating the AMSU-derived rainfall rate through a cubic-spline which is derived from the past and current positions and the forecast track of a given tropical cyclone. An evaluation of how well this method estimates rainfall potential is underway. The products are updated at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SAB/TROP/DATA/img/trap-img.html
Examples of the products can be viewed in the following two figures (click on images to enlarge):
Figure 1: AMSU-derived rainfall rate valid June 16 at 0256 UTC, which is used to create the tropical rainfall potential product shown in Fig. 2. Values are given in mm/h at the bottom of this figure.
Figure 2: Twenty-four- hour tropical rainfall potential derived by integrating the AMSU rainfall rate along the official Tropical Prediction Center track of Tropical Storm Bud. The product is valid 0600 UTC on 17 June 2000.
A unique case study of Hurricane Floyd continues. The study utilizes wind field information derived from a modified version of the CIMSS wind code together with 3-minute interval super rapid scan images. The case study, which is a collaborative study with C. Velden at CIMSS, focuses on two separate problems. The first problem deals with how changes in tropical cyclone structure relate to life cycle changes. For this part of the study, we compare wind fields derived from aircraft reconnaissance to those derived from SRSO imagery along with other in situ and remotely observed data, as shown in Figure 3.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 3: Time series showing the average tangential wind within 150 km of the center of Hurricane Floyd at flight level (5,000-10,000 ft), in red, and at 150 hPa, in blue. Also shown on this figure are the best track central pressure, in green, and information obtained from IR satellite and aircraft reconnaissance observations.
Preliminary findings suggest that the spin-up of the upper-level circulation is preceded by low-level eye formation and an inner core convective maximum. The creation of a strong upper-level circulation precedes maximum intensity of this storm. Vertical tangential wind shear within 150 km is at a minimum prior to the maximum intensification period. Weakening of the upper-level circulation seems nearly simultaneous with the filling of the storm.
The second focus of the study is how changes in upper-level wind fields evolve during intensification. Preliminary findings suggest that impulsive convective events appear to cause uniform divergence at 150 hPa as they rotate cyclonically in the deep layer mean flow. Also, it appears that individual wind fields are quite variable with vorticity and divergence maxima related to convective forcing The time averaged fields produces a nearly symmetric vortex with maximum vorticity at the center surrounded by a ring of divergence. Convergence occurs at the center and in the surrounding moat region, as seen in Fig. 4.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 4: Vorticity and Divergence at 150 hPa derived from the 2.5-hour average wind fields observed in Hurricane Floyd on 12 September 1999 between 1335 and 1535 UTC. This is also when Floyd underwent the most rapid intensification.
Datasets for studying global tropical cyclones are being collected and archived in a real-time basis. Routine datasets include high-density cloud drift winds, ERS-2 and quick scat scatterometer, hurricane reconnaissance, surface and upper air reports, and AMSU quick look data sets
.
Documentation continues on a subclass of tropical cyclones which are symmetric with little or no rainband structure, have large eyes and have maintain intensities of approximately 85% of that which would be expected given the sea surface temperature conditions (Fig 5, click on image to enlarge).
Figure 5: Hurricane Howard (1998) on 25 August at 0000 UTC is an example of a nearly symmetric hurricane with a large eye and a maximum intensity of 85 % of its maximum potential intensity as determined from sea surface temperatures.
A Picture of the Month manuscript entitled “A mesoscale low-level thunderstorm outflow boundary associated with Hurricane Luis” by John Knaff and John Weaver is in press for publication in the Monthly Weather Review.
A real-time web site for an Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis parameter has been updated for the 2000 hurricane season: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp
Software was written which automatically brings in daily the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z AVN analyses from the NCEP ftp server. These files are used in the AMSU wind retrieval routines. The AMSU wind retrievals are currently focused on tropical systems, but will be used during the PACJET experiment.
Two large forest fires in Colorado were monitored with GOES imagery from their inception on the morning of 12 June 2000. A total of 22,500 acres (9,000 hectares, or 90 square kilometers) were burned and about 50 structures (homes, barns, etc.) destroyed. Figure 1 shows a satellite view of both fires on 15 June at 1915 UTC. The northern fire (west of Fort Collins) is called the Bobcat fire, that to the south (southwest of Denver) is called the Hi Meadow fire. The left panel is a 1 km visible image showing smoke from the fires. The right panel is a channel-2/4-difference image product being used experimentally to monitors fires in Florida. The fire/hot spots are white, and high clouds are color-coded. At least six or seven 4 km resolution (16 km2) infrared pixels show evidence of the fires, indicating that the fires cover an area of up to 100 square kilometers.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 1. GOES-10, visible wavelength image (left), and GOES-10 channel 2/4 difference product image (right), both taken on June 15 at 1915 UTC centered over north central Colorado.
Below are some photos from the Bobcat Fire courtesy of Poudre Fire Authority, Fort Collins.
Figure 2. a) Firefighters prepare to defend a home against approaching fire on Tuesday 13 June 2000, b) Beneath the Bobcat plume in Masonville, CO on 13 June, c) Bobcat plume from a highlands meadow on 13 June.
Click on images to enlarge
The natural disaster information cards for dispatchers continue to be popular with both Warning Coordination Meteorologists and Emergency Managers. These cards are based on the NOAA/FEMA/ARC safety booklets, and were reviewed by NWS staff, scientists, emergency managers, as well as FEMA and Red Cross personnel before issuance. The City of Fort Collins site that offers downloadable PDF and HTML versions averages between 15-30 hits daily, with most users downloading both. There is no recognizable geographically-preferred region for interest in the system. The city site may be found at:
http://www.ci.fort-collins.co.us/c_safety/oem/overview_ndic.htm
B. Connell and D. Hillger met with Prof. W. Rose (Michigan Tech University) and G. Ellrod (NOAA/NESDIS/ORA) at CIRA on April 13, 2000 to discuss mutual interests in satellite detection of volcanic ash, and to coordinate work on proposed publications.
A written summary/table of the basic capabilities of current and future operational and experimental satellites has been prepared. This summary was prepared to assist the RAMM Team in responding to the ORA request to provide speculation on future research directions for the next 5-10 years. This summary was shared with other ORA teams.
The article entitled “GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection” by J. Dostalek and T. Schmit (of CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin-Madison) was submitted to Weather and Forecasting. The paper is being revised and will be returned to the editors for a second review.
J. Gurka visited CIRA to discuss justification for possible modifications to the requirement for the Advanced Baseline Sounder (ABS). RAMMT members provided several examples where the horizontal resolution and areal coverage might be important. These examples included sensing the moisture gradient associated with a dry line, the possibility of obtaining near continuous eye soundings of intense hurricanes, the likelihood that the National Hurricane Center will extend their forecasts from 3 to 5 days, which will require soundings over large oceanic areas for track forecasting, and implications for satellite wind calculations.
Radar and satellite data are being used together to study a case of storm splitting and sever left movers in west Texas on 25 May 1999. (See Severe Storms)
Processing of the US climatologies continued mostly on schedule. Increased noise in the GOES-10 imagery has required extra time and effort for quality control. Products produced included monthly large sector composites for March, April and May 2000, and wind regime composites for December 1999, March 2000 and April 2000. Two year combined products (1998 and 1999) for GOES channels 1 and 4 were processed for December. Additionally, three year combined products (1998, 1999, and 2000) were produced for February. There has been a slight delay in processing the three year combined products for March due to the increased quality control effort.
Processing for the Wakefield, VA project began in June. Satellite images from the summers of 1998 and 1999 are being retrieved from tape and sectorized to cover the general area around Wakefield.
Satellite data for the lake-effect snow cases were put into AWIPS for future use in the development of the lake-effect snow training session. ETA 6km mesoscale model output was also obtained for one of the cases.
Current modeling work is concentrating in two areas. The first is on left-moving thunderstorms. Documented long-lived, left-moving thunderstorms are few in the literature. Our goal is to improve the documentation by reporting case studies on left-movers detected by GOES imagery and/or WSR-88D radar.
The second area of interest is in the interaction between thunderstorms and pre-existing low-level outflow boundaries. We are beginning the study by examining the source of enhanced horizontal vorticity behind the outflow boundary. Recently, the CSU-RAMS mesoscale model was used to generate an outflow boundary from a supercell. A complete horizontal vorticity analysis was generated to examine the baroclinic term, along with the divergent, tilting, and turbulent mixing terms. Figure 1 shows the rate of change of the magnitude of the horizontal vorticity vector. Results from this computation suggest that all of the terms along and on the cold side of the outflow boundary have comparable values. This result is in sharp contrast to current thinking which states that horizontal vorticity on the cold side of an outflow boundary results primarily from baroclinic forcing.
Figure 1. Horizontal vorticity vectors at 154 m and 115 min along with (a) divergent (b) tilting (c) solenoid (d) turbulent mixing, and (e) total forcing terms for the rate of change of the magnitude of horizontal vorticity. The scales shown at the bottom right of each graph are in units of s-1) Contours plotted are -20, -5, -1, 1, 5, and 20 X 10**7 s**-3. Upward motion along the outflow boundary and the magnitude of the horizontal vorticity vectors are shown in part (f). Click on image to enlarge
R. Zehr visited NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Atmospheric Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, for two days (June 5-6) to provide training on the use of Tropical RAMSDIS and to discuss ongoing research collaborations.
A conference paper by J. Weaver and N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center, Colorado State University) was presented by the second author at the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology entitled “Microscale rainfall variations as measured by a local volunteer network.” The paper reports on results from the first two years of data collection by citizen-participants in a city-wide, volunteer precipitation measuring mesonetwork.
Cooperative research and interaction continues with Dr. William Gray’s project at CSU. The focus is on providing satellite data information to aid in their ongoing hurricane research using aircraft flight level and GPS dropsonde data sets.
L. Grasso continues to collaborate with doctoral students in the CSU Atmospheric Science Department on the numerical simulations of convective storms.
Debra Molenar attended the McIDAS session at the Unidata Best Practices conference in Boulder, CO. Discussions were held with Tom Whittaker of SSEC regarding the future of McIDAS and VIS5D/AD.
D. Bikos and J. Weaver are working with Dave Barjenbruch (NWS/BOU) on the human factors of forecasting. Two cases of snowfall events during March 2000 are being studied.
J. Weaver and J. Dostalek continue their work with Loren Phillips, SOO at Lubbock, TX, on the 25 May 1999 thunderstorm case. See Lubbock Dryline Experiment.
J. Weaver and C. Combs met with Mike Weiland and Rich Bann from the NWS Cheyenne office. They are interested in thunderstorm development over the Pine Ridge area of east central Wyoming and northwest Nebraska. Summer time composites for the Cheyenne station were produced, but 1999 did not have enough southerly wind regime cases from which to reach any conclusions. Cindy agreed to process composites for the North Platte station to see if two years of data (1998 and 1999) would provide a clearer picture.
Ken Gould, NWS Tallahassee, visited B. Connell and others at CIRA on April 4, to discuss results of the Florida Summer Sea Breeze Satellite Climatology Project. The project has collected and analyzed 4 summers of GOES-8 visible and 10.7 µm imagery (June-August of 1996-1999). The project’s primary focus is on developing cloud frequency composites stratified by wind regime to be used as a tool in forecasting weather. In Tallahassee last summer, composites from the previous 3 years were used to ‘fine tune’ short-term, zone, marine, and aviation forecasts. A draft paper of the wind regime stratified climatology comparing results of both the visible and infrared cloud frequency methods is underway.
At the beginning of June 2000, collection of GOES-8 Visible and Infrared imagery began for the Tallahassee Summer Sea Breeze Climatology Project. This will be the 5th season of imagery collection. Regular monthly cloud frequency composites can also be derived from this data set. Figure 1 shows cloud frequency for June for the past 4 years (1996-1999).
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 1. GOES-8 monthly visible cloud frequency composites for June 1996-1999 for the area centered over the Tallahassee, FL. WFO.
CIRA has offered to collaborate with the Wichita Science and Operations Officer to migrate his training presentation so that it can be given to multiple offices at one time. The training addresses how to include satellite and other data in the warning decision process.
B. Motta initiated a conference call with Rich Grumm, the State College, PA NWS Science and Operations Officer, regarding some current training under development to address winter storm forecasting (including the watch/warning time frames). Given the events of last winter and other challenging cases for which special data sets and AWIPS data sets have been collected, Rich and other collaborators are eager to develop this training prior to the next winter season. Rich feels strongly that there needs to be much better satellite/model analysis and was an instructor at the last COMET COMAP Numerical Weather Prediction Symposium. Rich has already agreed to serve as a co-instructor with VISIT personnel.
RMTC Project:
GOES-8 imagery for March through May 2000 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Costa Rica. This is one project of several cooperative efforts between CIRA and the RMTC. The archives started in December 1996 and are being used for cloud frequency studies during the rainy and dry seasons. An example is shown in Figure 1 below. The archives are also being used as a training tool for student projects. Retrospective data from a February 1996 flood case in Costa Rica was sent to the University for use as part of a student thesis project.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 1. GOES-8 monthly cloud frequency composites derived by the temperature threshold technique (<283 K) for the area centered around Costa Rica. Shown are May monthly composites from 1997-2000.
GOES-8 imagery for March 2000 through May 2000 were sent to the Regional Meteorological Training Center (RMTC) in Barbados to develop satellite climatology composites for the region. A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 mm imagery for March and April of 1998, 1999, and 2000 is shown in Fig 2. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.
Click on image to enlarge
Figure 2. GOES-8 monthly cloud frequency composites derived by the temperature threshold technique (<283 K) for the area centered around Barbados. Shown are March and April monthly composites from 1998-2000.
Meetings/Conferences:
Travelers
M. DeMaria
Destinations
Miami, FL
Funding
GIMPAP
Dates
May 1-5
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Presentation at Tropical Prediction Center
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
May 8, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Mark DeMaria, Supervisory Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
May 1-5, 2000
Tropical Prediction Center (TPC), Miami, FL (May 1-5)
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) (May 3)
On May 1-2, I worked with Fiona Horsfall of TPC to assist with the conversion of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) and the Limited area spectral BARotropic track model (LBAR) to NCEP’s new IBM computer. I am currently working with Fiona and the TPC Science and Operations Officer (Jiann-Gwo Jiing) to include IR brightness temperatures in SHIPS. Also on May 1-2, I discussed methods for using the TPC operational satellite imagery to transition the generalized version of SHIPS to operations. I also discussed the possibility of implementing the experimental tropical cyclone genesis parameter being developed at RAMM Team at TPC. In addition, I discussed the participation by forecasters from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of TPC in future VISIT training sessions, and arranged for installation of the VISIT software on a TPC computer (to be accomplished in the next few weeks).
On May 3, I was joined by Fran Holt from NESDIS/ARAD and we visited AOML. We met with the AOML director (Kristina Katsaros), and scientists from the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and Physical Oceanography Division (PHOD) to discuss the use of satellite data at AOML, and on possible research interactions. We also discussed future plans for the RAMSDIS system at HRD. After lunch, we returned to TPC, and meet with Mark Powell from HRD who gave a demo of data base software for quality control and analysis of surface winds near tropical cyclones. This software allows the combination of satellite winds, aircraft and conventional data. Later in the afternoon, Fran and I gave a joint seminar at TPC entitled “Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones”.
On May 4-5, I met with John Kaplan of HRD to finalize revisions of a joint manuscript for the Journal of Applied Meteorology on the decay of hurricane winds after landfall in the New England area. I also provided additional training to Fiona on maintenance of SHIPS and LBAR during the upcoming hurricane season, and met with several of the hurricane specialists to discuss ongoing tropical cyclone research at RAMM Team. RAMM Team will work with one of the hurricane specialists to stratify the GPS dropwindsonde data by IR brightness temperatures, to develop improved methods for reducing flight level winds to the surface.
cc: Fran Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
D. Bikos
Destinations
Oklahoma, OK
Funding
VISIT
Dates
May 1-5
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
National Symposium on the Great Plains
Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999
Travelers
M. DeMaria
R. Zehr
J. Knaff
J. Demuth
Destinations
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Funding
GIMPAP
GIMPAP
AMSU
SWPI
Dates
May 29-
June 2
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
June 13, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Raymond M. Zehr, Research Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
Fort Lauderdale and Miami, FL
May 28 – June 7, 2000.
Highlights
24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Hurricane Research Division visit
Discussion
The AMS Hurricane Conference was held in Fort Lauderdale on May 29 – June 2, 2000. I gave a talk on a paper entitled, “Tropical Cyclone Research using Large Infrared Image Data Sets,” which briefly described ongoing research applications and product development using IR imagery. A progress report on the RAMM Hurricane IR archive project, that now contains around 28,000 images, was also given.
The AMS Banner Miller award that recognizes published research to aid hurricane forecasting, was presented to C. Velden, T. Olander, S. Wanzong, all from CIMSS, and R. Zehr, RAMM.
Two days (June 5-6) were spent at NOAA Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The main purpose of the visit was to brief users on the new and improved version of Tropical RAMSDIS, that was recently upgraded for use at HRD. The new system was shipped from CIRA, and turned on at HRD on Friday June 2, and ingested most products successfully over the weekend and was up and running on my arrival Monday morning. Additional discussions on modifications, and how to maximize the system’s capabilities took place with several HRD personnel, and a 1-hr briefing was attended by a majority of the HRD staff. The HRD main point of contact for RAMSDIS is Jason Dunion.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
J. Weaver
Destinations
Silver Spring, MD
Funding
BASE
Dates
May 31 –
June 2
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
THOR Meeting
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/RAMM CIRA, W. Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
June 8, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: John F. Weaver, Research Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project Meeting
NOAA Headquarters, Washington, DC
June 1, 2000
I attended a planning meeting for the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project at NOAA headquarters in Washington, D.C. on Thursday, 01 June 2000. The meeting lasted all day, and was attended by a large group of participants from a variety of agencies and organizations including the NWS, NESDIS/CIRA, NSSL, NCAR, OFCM, NTSB, USAF, DoD, NASA, FEMA, DoE, FAA, and MIT. The purpose of the visit was to learn more about THOR, and find places where NESDIS and/or RAMM/CIRA might interact. See me if you’d like to see the roster of the thirty-five, or so, attendees.
Briefly described, the THOR project is an attempt to systematically merge existing automated forecasting systems beginning with a two- to three-year field program concentrated on one specific high-impact weather phenomenon. At least to start, the subject will be severe thunderstorms. The focus of the meeting turned out to be Steve Smith’s System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN), and NCAR’s AutoNowcaster.
The plan for the first couple of years seems to be to use both systems at one of several locations to evaluate their effectiveness through field testing, using FSL’s Real Time Verification System (RTVS). Recent tests of SCAN output in a field test at Sterling, Virginia indicate an improvement to forecast accuracy using that product. However, similar forecasts at other sites where SCAN was not used also reported improved forecast accuracies. Several people suggested that the improvement was possibly the result of NWS modernization. One of the basic premises of the THOR project is to establish baseline accuracy’s against which automated systems can be evaluated. The plan is to use radar and chase teams to obtain verification data, and RTVS to generate the statistics. As an aside comment, I have personal reservations about using RTVS in its current configuration. For one thing, the current version defines a thunderstorm by reflectivity and lightning flash rate thresholds. As we all are aware, there are numerous examples of severe weather and flooding not accompanied by intense lightning (e.g., dry microbursts, and several recent flash floods).
Since CIRA does not have an automated thunderstorm forecast algorithm, my input consisted of reviewing current severe weather research/training at CIRA, and describing the next generation GOES-Sounder. My suggestion was that, by combining higher resolution sounding data with results from recent and current research on low-level boundaries, there is a reasonable promise of being able to identify significant low-level boundaries through a sounder-based identification algorithm in the near- to mid-future.
Finally, there were a couple of presentations at the meeting advocating making the evaluation of the societal impact of severe thunderstorms a part of the THOR Project. I also included a few words about CIRA’s efforts in this regard.
On Friday, 02 June 2000 I attended a two-hour meeting with John Ogren and others at NOAA/NWS headquarters. John is the NWS Warning Coordination Program Manager, and the NWS/FEMA Liaison. We discussed improvements and new ways to get WCMs more active in the 911-dispatch card program, and demonstrated the system to several staff members. Apparently, the cards are very popular with emergency managers, and on more than one occasion, demonstration card sets have disappeared from the NWS booths at various shows and conferences.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
R. Zehr
Destinations
Miami, FL
Funding
GIMPAP
Dates
June 5-7
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
THRD Visit
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMM Team
CIRA, West Laporte Avenue
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375
June 13, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: James F.W. Purdom, Director
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
FROM: Raymond M. Zehr, Research Meteorologist
NOAA/NESDIS/RAMMT
SUBJECT: Trip Report
Fort Lauderdale and Miami, FL
May 28 – June 7, 2000.
Highlights
24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Hurricane Research Division visit
Discussion
The AMS Hurricane Conference was held in Fort Lauderdale on May 29 – June 2, 2000. I gave a talk on a paper entitled, “Tropical Cyclone Research using Large Infrared Image Data Sets,” which briefly described ongoing research applications and product development using IR imagery. A progress report on the RAMM Hurricane IR archive project, that now contains around 28,000 images, was also given.
The AMS Banner Miller award that recognizes published research to aid hurricane forecasting, was presented to C. Velden, T. Olander, S. Wanzong, all from CIMSS, and R. Zehr, RAMM.
Two days (June 5-6) were spent at NOAA Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The main purpose of the visit was to brief users on the new and improved version of Tropical RAMSDIS, that was recently upgraded for use at HRD. The new system was shipped from CIRA, and turned on at HRD on Friday June 2, and ingested most products successfully over the weekend and was up and running on my arrival Monday morning. Additional discussions on modifications, and how to maximize the system’s capabilities took place with several HRD personnel, and a 1-hr briefing was attended by a majority of the HRD staff. The HRD main point of contact for RAMSDIS is Jason Dunion.
cc: F. Holt, E/RA2
Travelers
J. Dostalek
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
Dates
June 6
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
NOAA/ETL PacJet Meeting
Travelers
B. Motta
Destinations
San Francisco, CA
Funding
VISIT
Dates
June 19-23
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
AMS 29th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology
June 26, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Brian C. Motta
SUBJECT: Trip Report
AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference
San Francisco, CA
June 19 – 23, 2000
The AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference was held the week of June 17th in San Francisco. Mike Mogil, formerly of NESDIS/ORA, and I presented a 1-day training seminar on satellite and integrated sensor interpretation. I conducted the Low-level Thunderstorm Outflow Boundary training session which explains the GOES Fog/Stratus product and the implications of using the satellite, radar, and other data sources together. I also presented the GOES Rapid Scan Operations training. Both training sessions received excellent reviews from the participants. Further proof that the training was effective was the number of inquiries from weather information vendors (caused by their customers asking) about being able to ingest the data and make the fog/stratus product. WSI (which has a 5:1 market share over other vendors) has had the Fog/Stratus product available for their customers with the WeatherProducer workstation for over 2 years. However, many of their customers were unaware of the product and what the uses/advantages were of having it. I also briefly covered the Enhanced-V satellite signature using the Birmingham tornado example and the proper identification of one. We also reviewed application of water vapor imagery and other basic interpretation skills.
The afternoon part of the workshop, co-instructed by Mike and I, was based on a case from January 2000. It was a case of “black stratus” where the clouds were warmer than the ground. The stratus region advected NW (completely across the state of IA) over the course of twelve hours and was not predicted by any of the forecast models or model output. There was just enough frozen/freezing precipitation to cause numerous deadly accidents but not enough for road crews or others to consider “significant”. There was very little synoptic scale forcing and radar was of little use as the situation was developing in the overnight hours. Only weak reflectivity values were observed across the area of concern (as one might expect). Only one of the participants immediately recognized the situation, he was from MO and among the affected areas. Apparently, a professional football player died in one of the accidents caused by the freezing precipitation on the roadways. This same TV met was the only one out of 120 meteorologists to key on the outflow-storm-interaction in the RSO training session (CO/KS case).
Dave Jones, a meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington,DC, announced that WRC-TV will be teaming with NASA under a multi-year agreement to submit a proposal which will re-navigate GOES imagery to km accuracy so that they can generate Landsat-7 basemaps for use with operational GOES imagery. This is obviously very exciting news and a long overdue improvement which can be incorporated into NESDIS real-time processing when completed. Dave and I will keep in touch to follow the evolution of this project.
NOAA/NESDIS/NWS/Colorado State University/CIRA was “put-on-the-map” with the broadcasters as a result of this trip. The TV meteorologists were pleased to see products that they can use operationally and learn of the new products that the NWS is using in issuing their forecasts and warnings. Many TV meteorologists had read about the fog product and RSO in NWS forecast discussions but were not aware of the impact that GOES data was having in NWS forecasts and warnings. Robert Diaz, NWS MIC at Monterey, was among the workshop participants. He commented that not only was the workshop excellent but it provided new insight for the TV meteorologists into how the NWS is using GOES imagery and integrating data sets to produce improved forecasts and warnings (great PR for the NWS!). TV meteorologists from as far away as the Finnish Meteorological Institute are interested in our training materials and any further workshops to which we contribute. I was even surprised to find CSU alumni doing broadcasting now. Each workshop attendee was given a copy of “An Introduction to Satellite Image Interpretation, ” 1999 NESDIS Annual Report (with Operational Significant Event Imagery), and a workbook.
Travelers
M. DeMaria
Destinations
Washington, DC
Funding
BASE
Dates
June 21-23
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Team Leaders Meeting
June 26, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Brian C. Motta
SUBJECT: Trip Report
AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference
San Francisco, CA
June 19 – 23, 2000
The AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference was held the week of June 17th in San Francisco. Mike Mogil, formerly of NESDIS/ORA, and I presented a 1-day training seminar on satellite and integrated sensor interpretation. I conducted the Low-level Thunderstorm Outflow Boundary training session which explains the GOES Fog/Stratus product and the implications of using the satellite, radar, and other data sources together. I also presented the GOES Rapid Scan Operations training. Both training sessions received excellent reviews from the participants. Further proof that the training was effective was the number of inquiries from weather information vendors (caused by their customers asking) about being able to ingest the data and make the fog/stratus product. WSI (which has a 5:1 market share over other vendors) has had the Fog/Stratus product available for their customers with the WeatherProducer workstation for over 2 years. However, many of their customers were unaware of the product and what the uses/advantages were of having it. I also briefly covered the Enhanced-V satellite signature using the Birmingham tornado example and the proper identification of one. We also reviewed application of water vapor imagery and other basic interpretation skills.
The afternoon part of the workshop, co-instructed by Mike and I, was based on a case from January 2000. It was a case of “black stratus” where the clouds were warmer than the ground. The stratus region advected NW (completely across the state of IA) over the course of twelve hours and was not predicted by any of the forecast models or model output. There was just enough frozen/freezing precipitation to cause numerous deadly accidents but not enough for road crews or others to consider “significant”. There was very little synoptic scale forcing and radar was of little use as the situation was developing in the overnight hours. Only weak reflectivity values were observed across the area of concern (as one might expect). Only one of the participants immediately recognized the situation, he was from MO and among the affected areas. Apparently, a professional football player died in one of the accidents caused by the freezing precipitation on the roadways. This same TV met was the only one out of 120 meteorologists to key on the outflow-storm-interaction in the RSO training session (CO/KS case).
Dave Jones, a meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington,DC, announced that WRC-TV will be teaming with NASA under a multi-year agreement to submit a proposal which will re-navigate GOES imagery to km accuracy so that they can generate Landsat-7 basemaps for use with operational GOES imagery. This is obviously very exciting news and a long overdue improvement which can be incorporated into NESDIS real-time processing when completed. Dave and I will keep in touch to follow the evolution of this project.
NOAA/NESDIS/NWS/Colorado State University/CIRA was “put-on-the-map” with the broadcasters as a result of this trip. The TV meteorologists were pleased to see products that they can use operationally and learn of the new products that the NWS is using in issuing their forecasts and warnings. Many TV meteorologists had read about the fog product and RSO in NWS forecast discussions but were not aware of the impact that GOES data was having in NWS forecasts and warnings. Robert Diaz, NWS MIC at Monterey, was among the workshop participants. He commented that not only was the workshop excellent but it provided new insight for the TV meteorologists into how the NWS is using GOES imagery and integrating data sets to produce improved forecasts and warnings (great PR for the NWS!). TV meteorologists from as far away as the Finnish Meteorological Institute are interested in our training materials and any further workshops to which we contribute. I was even surprised to find CSU alumni doing broadcasting now. Each workshop attendee was given a copy of “An Introduction to Satellite Image Interpretation, ” 1999 NESDIS Annual Report (with Operational Significant Event Imagery), and a workbook.
Travelers
L. Grasso
Destinations
Boulder, CO
Funding
GIMPAP
Dates
June 23
Meetings, Conferences, Courses
Weather Research and Forecasting
June 26, 2000
MEMORANDUM FOR: RAMM Team
FROM: Brian C. Motta
SUBJECT: Trip Report
AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference
San Francisco, CA
June 19 – 23, 2000
The AMS Broadcast Meteorology Conference was held the week of June 17th in San Francisco. Mike Mogil, formerly of NESDIS/ORA, and I presented a 1-day training seminar on satellite and integrated sensor interpretation. I conducted the Low-level Thunderstorm Outflow Boundary training session which explains the GOES Fog/Stratus product and the implications of using the satellite, radar, and other data sources together. I also presented the GOES Rapid Scan Operations training. Both training sessions received excellent reviews from the participants. Further proof that the training was effective was the number of inquiries from weather information vendors (caused by their customers asking) about being able to ingest the data and make the fog/stratus product. WSI (which has a 5:1 market share over other vendors) has had the Fog/Stratus product available for their customers with the WeatherProducer workstation for over 2 years. However, many of their customers were unaware of the product and what the uses/advantages were of having it. I also briefly covered the Enhanced-V satellite signature using the Birmingham tornado example and the proper identification of one. We also reviewed application of water vapor imagery and other basic interpretation skills.
The afternoon part of the workshop, co-instructed by Mike and I, was based on a case from January 2000. It was a case of “black stratus” where the clouds were warmer than the ground. The stratus region advected NW (completely across the state of IA) over the course of twelve hours and was not predicted by any of the forecast models or model output. There was just enough frozen/freezing precipitation to cause numerous deadly accidents but not enough for road crews or others to consider “significant”. There was very little synoptic scale forcing and radar was of little use as the situation was developing in the overnight hours. Only weak reflectivity values were observed across the area of concern (as one might expect). Only one of the participants immediately recognized the situation, he was from MO and among the affected areas. Apparently, a professional football player died in one of the accidents caused by the freezing precipitation on the roadways. This same TV met was the only one out of 120 meteorologists to key on the outflow-storm-interaction in the RSO training session (CO/KS case).
Dave Jones, a meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington,DC, announced that WRC-TV will be teaming with NASA under a multi-year agreement to submit a proposal which will re-navigate GOES imagery to km accuracy so that they can generate Landsat-7 basemaps for use with operational GOES imagery. This is obviously very exciting news and a long overdue improvement which can be incorporated into NESDIS real-time processing when completed. Dave and I will keep in touch to follow the evolution of this project.
NOAA/NESDIS/NWS/Colorado State University/CIRA was “put-on-the-map” with the broadcasters as a result of this trip. The TV meteorologists were pleased to see products that they can use operationally and learn of the new products that the NWS is using in issuing their forecasts and warnings. Many TV meteorologists had read about the fog product and RSO in NWS forecast discussions but were not aware of the impact that GOES data was having in NWS forecasts and warnings. Robert Diaz, NWS MIC at Monterey, was among the workshop participants. He commented that not only was the workshop excellent but it provided new insight for the TV meteorologists into how the NWS is using GOES imagery and integrating data sets to produce improved forecasts and warnings (great PR for the NWS!). TV meteorologists from as far away as the Finnish Meteorological Institute are interested in our training materials and any further workshops to which we contribute. I was even surprised to find CSU alumni doing broadcasting now. Each workshop attendee was given a copy of “An Introduction to Satellite Image Interpretation, ” 1999 NESDIS Annual Report (with Operational Significant Event Imagery), and a workbook.
| Visitor(s) | Dates of Visit | Affiliation | RAMMT Contact |
| Ken Gould | April 4 | NWS Office Tallahassee, FL | B. Connell |
| Jim LaDue | April 12 | NWS Operational Training Facility Norman, OK | J. Weaver |
| Gary Ellrod Bill Rose | April 13 | NOAA/NESDIS/ORA/ARAD/FPDT Washington, DC Michigan Technological University Houghton, MI | B. Connell |
| Jim Gurka | May 11 | NESDIS Washington, DC | M. DeMaria |
| Martin Ralph | May 17 | NOAA/ERL./ETL Boulder, CO | J. Dostalek |
| Alan Bol | May 24 | Distance Learning Branch, COMET Boulder, CO | J. Weaver |
A new “Tropical RAMSDIS 2000” has been configured and deployed to HRD.
Two RAMSDIS systems were configured and deployed to Brazil. On-site training will occur as soon as the systems clear customs.
Examination of data from the 25 May 1999 case chosen for study has shown the occurrence of a non classical split with a tornadic left moving thunderstorm. A write-up of the case for submission to a journal will begin next quarter.
The RAMMT is supporting STEPS by providing real-time satellite loops from RAMSDIS On-Line, including imagery from Rapid Scan Operations, as well as archiving digital McIDAS satellite data from select cases. AWIPS data are also being archived from these same cases. The field experiment continues through 16 July, and the RAMMT team will continue to provide real-time data and archive satellite AWIPS data through the end of the project.
Satellite and AWIPS data has already been archived for several, less than ideal, cases. These data are available for use in both research and training applications. Research and training efforts would likely focus on the relationships between cloud-to-ground lightning and severe weather.
A written summary/table of the basic capabilities of current and future operational and experimental satellites has been prepared by D. Hillger. This summary was prepared to assist the RAMM Team in responding to the ORA request to provide speculation on future research directions for the next 5-10 years. This summary was shared with other ORA teams.
With the retirement of Roger Phillips, Hiro Gosden will be overseeing the World Wide Web Administration.
A Quarterly Report page was added to the ORA Intranet site.
In preparation for the upcoming review of ORA by the NOAA Science Advisory Board, a new page was added to the ORA Intranet. The new page is similar to the Weekly Activities page and will be used to collect information for the Science Review. A document containing instructions for publish documents onto the Intranet Web page was redistributed.
The real-time AMSU-derived tropical cyclone products provide real-time estimates of tropical cyclone temperature and wind structure.
See: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/tropic/amsustrm.asp
For the second year in a row real-time guidance for the genesis of tropical cyclones in the eastern tropical Atlantic ocean is being provided. These products are derived from the GOES-8 sounder products and water-vapor imagery along with wind fields derived from NCEP’s Aviation model analyses. These analyses can be seen at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/gparm/genesis.asp
A Satellite Interpretation Discussion page was put together for the Fort Worth, TX tornadoes of 28 March 2000.
Several RAMSDIS workstations are undergoing hardware and software upgrades in preparation to be sent to various foreign countries. The first system is ready to go and will be shipped to Nairobi, Kenya as soon as the paperwork has been taken care of on their end.
A new improved version of Tropical RAMSDIS was introduced and has been running successfully since June 2 both at CIRA and Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL. The system was upgraded to 350 frames, and modified with several new features. New capabilities include a motion relative IR average image loop and display capabilities for real-time A new improved version of Tropical RAMSDIS was introduced and has been running successfully since June 2 both at QuikScat scatterometer winds.
The RAMM Team’s sounder RAMSDIS units software was updated to comply with CIRA’s ground station changes.
McIDAS programs were written to draw the perimeters of the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Convective Outlooks and watch boxes on satellite images.
Two RAMSDIS systems designed specifically for South America was shipped to Brazil. The development of training material is now underway.
A new Tropical RAMSDIS 2000 was developed and deployed to Hurricane Research Division. A clone of this system is up and running in the CIRA Lab.
Focal points have been identified for the WMO/RAMSDIS project. Configuration of systems is currently underway.
Update on Florida Fires Website: The website containing experimental fire products over Florida has been updated with a loop of the latest images from each of the four products. This new loop allows a quick comparison of hot spots in the three experimental IR products with the visible image which may show smoke from the fires. Software has also been implemented to standardize one of the IR image products that was previously containing wide variations in brightness. The website is:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/flfire.html
Tropical RAMSDIS online was re-activated June 18 for this year’s hurricane season. An upgrade is planned prior to August 1.
Scripts to automatically check and report the most recent data for the various ROL components have been implemented.
During this quarter 30 VISIT teletraining sessions were conducted. 114 NWS offices participated in these sessions (some offices took more than one session). A new teletraining session was started during this quarter – “Applying Mesoscale Tools and Techniques to Predict and Detect Severe Thunderstorm Development” led by Peter Wolf of NWS Wichita (see below).
The following table refers to the total number of VISIT teletraining sessions April 1999 through June 23, 2000. A “response” is an evaluation form returned by the WFO that participated. Approximately 70% of the WFO’s trained return an evaluation.
IST PDS/VISIT Teletraining Sessions Summary
April 1999 through June 23, 2000
| x | Sessions | Number of offices attending | Unique responses received | Responses received (includes more than one reply from an office) | Certificates Issued |
| Total | 126 | 521 | 319 | 499 | 1521 |
| Enhanced-V | 25 | 84 | 54 | 88 | 261 |
| Boundaries | 10 | 50 | 32 | 47 | 171 |
| 171LTO | 17 | 67 | 46 | 67 | 185 |
| Lightning | 16 | 86 | 53 | 90 | 283 |
| RSO | 18 | 56 | 41 | 67 | 191 |
| Tropical | 6 | 31 | 14 | 21 | 78 |
| Enhancements | 9 | 47 | 27 | 47 | 108 |
| Meso Ascent | 12 | 39 | 22 | 35 | 113 |
| Meso Tools | 4 | 44 | 18 | 22 | 101 |
| NDIC | 9 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 30 |
The following list is a summary of the questions asked on evaluation forms e-mailed to participants of all VISIT teletraining sessions, and Figure 1 summarizes the responses.
1.) The course of instruction is easy to follow and objectives were met.
2.) The content of the material was appropriate for the training
3.) The presentation of the material was appropriate for the training.
4.) The graphics contributed well to my understanding of the lesson.
5.) The instructor(s) provided sufficient interactivity for me to feel involved in the lesson and test my learning.
6.) The instructor(s) explained the features well.
7.) VISITview was easy to install and use
8.) Looping capabilities were acceptable for VISITview.
9.) VISITview provided an effective means for teaching the course objectives.
10.) Audio quality was sufficient for effective training
11.) It was easy to schedule the session and the training was offered at a convenient day and time.
12.) In the whole, I thought the lesson was a good learning experience
Figure 1. Summary of evaluations from all VISIT teletraining sessions, April 1999 through June 23, 2000. The highest mark for a question is 5 (yellow colored) for strongly agree. The lowest mark is1 (red colored) for strongly disagree.
VISIT staff collaborated with J. LaDue (NWS/WSR-88D Operational Support Facility/Warning Decision Training Branch) on the second in a series of teletraining sessions relating to the importance of boundaries in satellite and radar data entitled “Boundaries Capable of Initiating Convection.” Satellite loops are used for a case exercise in which there are many boundaries and interactions and students make 3 short-term forecasts.
An outline was completed for a new VISIT training session on Subtropical Cyclones. This was in response to requests from NWS Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) and NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch. Training material contributed by Jack Beven of TPC will comprise a portion of the training session. Target date for completion is July 1, 2000.
Two internal reviews of a beta version of a training session on lightning applications were completed.
R. Zehr led two tropical training sessions with eight NWS offices (Guam, Honolulu(HI), Philadelphia(PA), Caribou(ME), Key West(FL), Brookhaven(NY), Blacksburg (VA), Charleston(WV)), and participants from the NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, and the National Weather Service Warning and Forecast Office in Oxnard, CA.. Discussion topics included midget hurricanes and the impact of the tropical cyclone eyes and central cloudiness on IR intensity analyses. Microwave imagery was shown to demonstrate the capability to observe cyclone centers.
B. Motta collaborated with P. Wolf (Wichita, KS) NWS Science and Operations Officer on a new teletraining session entitled “Applying Mesoscale Tools and Techniques to Predict and Detect Severe Thunderstorm Development”. This session highlights the challenges the NWS forecasters face in attempting to make the most informed warning decisions using modernized data sources. Operationally-available AWIPS datasets as well as satellite datasets from the NOAA/NESDIS/ORA Forecast Products Development Team website are utilized. There was an immediate and widespread response by the NWS SOOs to participate in this training session. The response is unprecedented for elective teletraining in the NWS. Three sessions have been filled with 38 NWS offices (including the WSR-88D OSF/OTB and NWS/OM) scheduled to participate with several more requests deferred to a later date. Many of the NWS offices wanted to participate in multiple offerings of this session. This is the first SOO-generated VISIT session, and serves as a model for allowing NWS teletraining to benefit all NWS regions. Further, many NWS offices that have never taken a VISIT teletraining session have registered for this one. Both PowerPoint and VISITview versions are available.
One of the NWS WFOs to participate in the first offering of the “Applying Mesoscale Tools and Techniques to Predict and Detect Severe Thunderstorm Development” provided the following feedback in their training evaluation: “It was interesting to learn of the AWIPS LAPS sounding accuracy. We had a front moving into the area and the KDFX ( Dallas, TX) radar was down. The method described in the session was used. It worked well. An urban and small stream advisory was issued instead of a flash flood warning.”
J. Weaver led three VISIT teletraining sessions on GOES Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) for a total of seven NWS forecast offices including BOI, GGW, BOU, AKQ, AMA, DVN, and TFX. He also led six session of the NDIC course which included both NWS/WCMs and multiple emergency managers during each session. D. Bikos also participated in each session.
Web versions of some of these sessions may be visited at the following addresses:
Rapid Scan Operations
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp
Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp
Detecting Boundaries
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp
CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp
| Course Title | Instructors | Topic | Dates |
| Satellite Meteorology | T. Smith, D. Watson J. Dostalek J. Weaver M. DeMaria B. Motta | Introduction to the GOES I-M Imager channels with emphasis on the 3.9 um channel. Using satellite imagery for nowcasting and short-range forecasting during severe thunderstorm outbreaks. The Fort Collins flash flood Satellite applications in tropical weather forecasting: (1) Integration of satellite and radar data and (2) AWIPS satellite imagery. (1) Integration of Satellite and Radar Data. (2) AWIPS Satellite Imagery. | April 3 April 5 April 6 April 7 April 10 April 11 |
J. Weaver served as a site guide for Science Fair participants touring the Colorado State University Campus at the CIRA/Atmospheric Science location. For each small group, he gave a short presentation and answered questions concerning weather satellites, severe weather and careers in meteorology.
J. Weaver continues as the NOAA representative on the City of Fort Collins’ Project Impact steering committee. Project Impact is a FEMA-funded effort which provides “seed money” to several cities in each state to develop innovative ideas for disaster mitigation. His goal is to get FEMA to think of weather information as a potential mitigation tool. Part of this effort includes the Natural Disaster Information Card series (see VISIT)
J. Weaver gave a presentation to a group of Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) regulars and reservists at Poudre Valley Hospital in Fort Collins. The talk was entitled “Emergency Response during Natural Disasters.” It focused on how quickly the response infrastructure can be overwhelmed during a natural disaster, and showed how developing a robust relationship with local NWS forecasters can help mitigate some of those effects through short term forecast product usage.
J. Weaver and J. Knaff assisted in the Kids in College program at Colorado State University during the month of June.
Mitch Project:
On May 12, several RAMM Team members participated in a tele-video conference to discuss technical aspects of the NESDIS project to install GOES and POES satellite data acquisition systems in Costa Rica, and RAMSDIS systems in seven countries in Central America. RAMM Team is primarily responsible for installation of the RAMSDIS systems and the provision of training. A one-week satellite training session will be held in December 2000 in Costa Rica. The installation of the RAMSDIS systems will occur by Spring 2000. Visit the following website for more information on this NOAA project:
http://discovery.osd.noaa.gov/mitch/
Rosario Alfaro from the Costa Rica meteorological forecast office was selected as the visiting scientist for the hurricane Mitch project. She has accepted the position, with a starting date of August 1, 2000. She will be working with the Hydrology Team and the RAMM Team on the development of satellite precipitation algorithms for Central America.
RMTC Project:
Development of satellite climatology/composites continues with both Barbados and Costa Rica. See the WMO section under RESEARCH for more information.
International Virtual Laboratory: A proposal was submitted to NESDIS to distribute RAMSDIS systems to several locations in Europe, Asia, and Australia. This is part of a NESDIS effort to foster collaborative research and training activities using satellite data.
Published:
(See also Accepted and Submitted)
Bernardet, L.R., L.D. Grasso, J.E. Nachamkin, C.A. Finley, and W.R. Cotton, 2000: Simulating convective events using a high-resolution mesoscale model. J. Geophysical Research, 105:(D11), 14963-14982.
Bikos, D.E., B.C. Motta, B.A. Zajac, and J.W. Weaver, 2000:A Satellite Perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak and Comments on Lightning Activity. National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999, 30 April-3 May, Oklahoma City, OK, University of Oklahoma.
Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, J.A. Knaff, T.G.G. Kittel, J.L. Eastman, 2000: A comparison of Regional Trends in 1979-1997 depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 503-518.
Cione, J.J., J. Kaplan, M. DeMaria, P. Molina, 2000: SST timeseries in the hurricane environment: Comparison with surface ocean temperatures used by the statistical hurricance intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS). 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
DeMaria, M., R.M. Zehr, C.S. Velden, and F.M. Horsfall, 2000: Further improvements to the statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme using GOES imagery. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 240-241.
DeMuth, J.L., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2000:An objective method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity and structure from NOAA-15 Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 484-485.
Doesken, N.J. and Weaver, J.F., 2000: Micro-scale rainfall variations measured by a local volunteer network. 12th Conference on Applied Climatology. 8-12 May, Asheville, NC, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 308-311.
Horsfall, F. and M. DeMaria, 2000: Climatological analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 29 May – 2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
53-54.
Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 2000: Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 29 May – 2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 232-233.
Kidder, S.Q., M.D. Goldberg, R.M. Zehr, M. DeMaria, J.F.W. Purdom, C.S. Velden, N.C. Grody, S.J. Kusselson, 2000: Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81:6, 1241-1260.
Knaff, J.A. and C.S. Velden, 2000: Relationship between the multi-layered wind field and the intensity of hurricane Floyd. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 492-493.
Landsea, C.W. and J.A. Knaff, 2000: How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events? 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 29 May – 2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J46.
Molenar, D.A., K.J. Schrab, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: RAMSDIS contributions to NOAA satellite data utilization. Amer. Meteor. Soc. Bull., 81:5, 1019-1029.
Zehr, R.M., 2000:Tropical cyclone research using large infrared image data sets. 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 May-2 June, Fort Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 486-487.
Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dependence of dryline formation on soil moisture. Mon Wea. Rev.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: The dissipation of a left moving cell in a severe storm envirnoment. Mon. Wea. Rev.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: A numerical simulation of dryline sensitivity to soil moisture. Mon. Wea. Rev.
Knaff, J.A. and J.F. Weaver, 2000: A mesoscale low-level thunderstorm outflow boundary associated with Hurricane Luis. Mon. Wea. Rev. (Picture of the Month).
Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 2000: How much skill was there in forecasting the great 1997-98 El Nino?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2000: Analysis of 200 mb zonal wind for the period 1958-1997. Climate Dynamics.
Weaver, J.F., J.F. Dostalek, B.C. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2000: Severe thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A satellite training case. National Weather Digest. In press.
Weaver, J.F., E. Gruntfest, and G.M. Levy, 2000: Two floods in Fort Collins: Learning from a natural disaster. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Zajac, B.A. and S. A. Rutledge, 1999: Cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the contiguous United States from 1995-1997. Mon. Wea. Rev.
DeMaria, M., 2001: Evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts from the GFDL hurricane model. Precipitation of Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses, 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Chase, T.N., J.A. Knaff, and R.A. Pielke, 2001: Trends in global monsoon circulations: Evidence for a diminished hydrological cycle? 12th Symposium on Global Change Studies and Climate Variations – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Dostalek, J.F., and T.J. Schmit, 2000: GOES Sounder Derived Product Imagery: Comparisons to Radiosondes and Use in Forecasting Severe Convection. Weather and Forecasting.
Grasso, L.D., 2000: A brief review of numerically simulated descending and nondescending tornadoes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Grasso, L.D. and E.R. Hilgendorf, 2000: Observations of anvil reflectivity at 3.9 um using GOES imagery. Weather and Forecasting.
Kidder, S.Q., J.A. Knaff, and S.J. Kusselson, 2001: Using AMSU data to forecast precipitation from landfalling hurricanes. Precipitation of Extremes: Prediction, Impacts, and Responses -81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2000: Short-term oscillations of deep convection associated with tropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review.
Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 2001: How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events? Climate Variability, the Ocean, and Societal Impacts – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Motta, B.C., S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, J.F. Weaver, R.M. Zehr, B. Grant, J. LaDue, A. Mostek, P. Wolf, 2001: Recent training and results from the Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training. 17th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) and the 10th Symposium on Education – 81st Annual AMS Meeting, 14-19 January, Albuquerque, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 2000: Analysis of 200 mb zonal wind for the period 1958-1997. Climate Dynamics.
Received:
| Participant | Dates | Place | Course |
| T. Smith | April 24-27 | Batky-Howell, Inc. Englewood, CO | LINUX System Administration Course |
| D. Hillger | June 20-27 | Colorado State University, CTSS Fort Collins, CO | A 3-part Workshop on Microsoft Access Database Software |
| Dates | Presentor | Topic | Conference |
| May 2 | Dan Bikos | A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak and comments on lightning activity | National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999, Oklahoma City, OK |
Internal Presentations
| Date | Presentor | Topic |
| May 11 | J. Knaff | Relationship between the multi-layered wind field and the intensity of hurricane Floyd |
| April 14 | B. Zajac | Lightning physics |
| April 11 | D. Bikos | A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak and comments on lightning activity |
The NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service (NIDS) radar data feed at CIRA has been modified to ingest Tier II data. CIRA staff can select which radar site to ingest from for the CIRA real-time AWIPS ingest simulation. AWIPS software was modified to include the new ingest capability. This completes the implementation of CIRA’s capability to archive full AWIPS datasets for case study and training purposes.
A great deal of time has been devoted to tightening RAMM Team computer security due to the increase in illegal system access. Access to the RAMM Team HP’s has been restricted to specific machines. Anonymous FTP service has been eliminated on Windows systems. New virus scanning software with an autoupdate feature to allow for automatic downloading of the most recent virus fixes has been distributed to all staff for installing on Windows systems. Additional account restrictions will be added to OS/2 machines.
A modest amount of time was spent troubleshooting network problems. The findings revealed unauthorized usage of our ftp servers. They were apparently being used as a game server to hackers. All unnecessary anonymous ftp services were removed and the write privileges on the anonymous ftp services were removed.
Another network problem surfaced and more time was dedicated to finding the cause of the problem. A further investigation revealed that a fiber optic line to the Hub/Switch was faulty.
A series of virus attacks heightened the awareness and importance of implementing a more reliable protection. A few virus protection packages were reviewed and are now being implemented.
The NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service (NIDS) radar data feed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) has been modified to ingest Tier II data. CIRA staff can select which radar site to ingest from for the CIRA real-time Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) ingest simulation. AWIPS software was modified to include the new ingest capability.
Midyear performance reviews for all NOAA RAMM Team members were completed on April 19.
After 36 years of federal service, Roger Phillips submitted his application for retirement to the Human Resources Division of the Mountain Administrative Support Center in Boulder. The effective date of this action will be July 1, 2000. Efforts to document software and procedures used in carrying out assignments and work plan activities are well underway.
H. Gosden spoke with J. Brust of ORA about the transfer of the ORA Weeklies Intranet page. ORA will install a directory server and learn the Enterprise server before the transfer occurs. The RAMM Team’s part is to provide documentation specific to the ORA Intranet configuration, and with pertinent documentation/information that would aid in the transfer. A possible on-site visit was requested from ORA, but we will determine its necessity at a later time.
A proposal was submitted to the National Science Foundation Antarctic Research Program to study the evolution and breakdown of the polar vortex using idealized numerical models and data from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU). Professor W. Schubert from the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science is the Principle Investigator of the project and will be working closely with M. DeMaria and J. Dostalek of the RAMM Team on the development of AMSU temperature and wind retrieval techniques for the southern hemisphere stratospheric circulation.
In preparation for the upcoming review of ORA by the NOAA Science Advisory Board, a new page was added to the ORA Intranet. The new page is similar to the Weekly Activities page and will be used to collect information for the Science Review. A document containing instructions for publish documents onto the Intranet Web page was redistributed.
| Team Member | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| D. Bikos | Oklahoma City, OK | National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 | VISIT | April 30- May 3 |
| B. Motta | Oklahoma, City, OK | National Symposium on the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak of 3 May 1999 | VISIT | April 30- May 3 |
| M. DeMaria | Miami, FL | TPC/NHC Presentation | GIMPAP | May 1-5 |
| M. DeMaria | Fort Lauderdale, FL | AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | GIMPAP | May 29- June 2 |
| R. Zehr | Fort Lauderdale, FL Miami, FL | AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and Hurricane Research Division | GIMPAP | May 29- June 2 June 5-7 |
| J. Knaff | Fort Lauderdale, FL | AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | AMSU | May 29- June 2 |
| J. DeMuth | Fort Lauderdale, FL | AMS 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | SWPI | May 29- June 2 |
| J. Weaver | Silver Spring, MD | THOR Planning Meeting | BASE | May 31- June 2 |
| J. Dostalek | Boulder, CO | CalJet Meeting | x | June 6 |
| B. Motta | San Francisco, CA | AMS 29th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology | VISIT | June 19-23 |
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | Team Leaders Meeting | BASE | June 21-23 |
| L. Grasso | Boulder, CO | Weather Research and Forecasting | GIMPAP | June 23 |
AMS: American Meteorological Society
AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
ARAD: Atmospheric Research and Applications Division
AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment
CG: Cloud to Ground
CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training
CONUS: Continental U.S.
CRAD: Climate Research and Applications Division
CSU: Colorado State University
EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite
FEMA:Federal Emergency Management Agency
FTP: File Transfer Protocol
GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan
GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
HRD: Hurricane Research Division
IR: Infrared
LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System
LES: Lake Effect Snow
McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research
NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards
NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS: National Weather Service
NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office
OM: Office of Meteorology
ORA: Office of Research and Applications
PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
POP: Product Oversight Panel
RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team
RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System
RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System
RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center
ROL: RAMSDIS Online
SAB: Satellite Applications Branch
SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center
SOO: Science Operations Officer
SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation
STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study
TPC: Tropical Prediction Center
USWRP: United States Weather Research Program
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated
VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training
WMO: World Meteorological Organization
WV: Water Vapor
