Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

A formal comment on the GOES-11 satellite article titled “Satellite Observations of a Severe Supercell Thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 made during the GOES-11 Science Test” by J. Weaver (NESDIS/RAMM), J. Knaff, D. Bikos (CIRA), G. Wade (NESDIS/CIMSS), and J. Daniels (NESDIS/ORA) was received by the editor of Weather and Forecasting. A formal reply to the comment was written and accepted for publication. The editor of the journal commented that the exchange turns out to be as scientifically valuable as the original article itself.

A paper entitled “A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains tornado outbreak within Oklahoma” by Bikos, Weaver and Motta appears in the June 2002 issue of Weather and Forecasting. An electronic copy of the article is attached. 3May99.pdf

Documentation of one of the VISIT teletraining sessions as an article for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society was put on hold this quarter. A draft of the manuscript [entitled, “Lightning Meteorology I: Distance-Learning Training on the Use of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Data in the Short Range Forecast and Nowcasting Processes” by Bard Zajac (CIRA) and John Weaver (NOAA)] will likely be completed this fall.

A web version of the VISIT session can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

J. Weaver attended (via teleconference) the Integrated Planning Teams’ joint kickoff meeting for the cross-NOAA line office Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP). STIP is a multi-agency program designed to satisfy requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and will define high priority and strategic product and service goals in the area of severe weather for the next 20-25 years. The plan was originally an NWS initiative, but various other groups within NOAA were asked to participate in order to nudge individual agency efforts in a common direction.

An interesting new loop was added to the Lightning Met-II session as yet another example of the principle that Positive Strike Dominated thunderstorms frequently transition to Negative Strike Dominated if and when they cross the low-level Theta-e ridge axis. This loop is now on the web-based version of the session at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/3mayltg.asp

The recently developed Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) and Decay STIPS were installed, with the assistance of B. Sampson at the Naval Research Laboratory, into the operational suite of products at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Pearl Harbor, HI. STIPS, which is a statistical model that utilizes forecast synoptic and thermodynamic information along with climatology and persistence to provide 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the western North Pacific, was developed under a grant from the Office of Naval Research. The JTWC forecaster, who provides the forecast track to the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System (ATCF), initializes the current version of the model in real-time. An example forecast ATCF dialog display for tropical cyclone 05W valid 17 May at 12 UTC is shown in Fig. 1, the track with forecast intensities is shown in Fig. 2, and the text output in Fig. 3. Along with the installation, training on the use, capabilities, and expectations of the STIPS model was conducted in May of 2002. It is hoped that this model will provide a 10% improvement in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts in the West Pacific tropical cyclone basin.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1: ATCF forecaster dialog valid for tropical cyclone 05W valid on 17 May 12 UTC showing the output of the intensity forecast models available to the forecasters at JTWC at that time. The last two models STIP and STPD are the forecasts produced by the STIPS and decay STIPS model. In operations the forecaster supplies the forecast track and runs the guidance to get an updated set of intensity guidance.

Figure 2: ATCF plot of the track and forecast positions associated with 05W on 17 May 12 UTC with the STIPS intensity forecast overlaying the appropriate forecast positions.

Figure 3: The ATCF text output for 05W 17 May 12 UTC that the forecaster at JTWC receives when he/she runs the STIPS model. 

The use of AMSU-A data to estimate tropical cyclone structure and intensity has been made nearly operational as part of the USWRP’s Joint Hurricane Test-bed project. Algorithms developed at CIRA to estimate tropical cyclone intensity in terms of pressure and maximum wind and radii of 34, 50 and 64-knot winds have been created and are run in a real-time manner along with the RAMMT web page output. Output from these algorithms is being sent via ftp to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at synoptic time for their evaluation. An example output is shown in Fig. 4. An independent algorithm for estimating intensity in terms of lowest pressure is being run at our sister Cooperative Institute CIMSS in Wisconsin as part of a real-time comparison exercise in the spirit of the Joint Hurricane Test-bed.

Figure 4: Example output from the CIRA AMSU tropical cyclone structure and intensity algorithms. A similar message is sent to the National Hurricane Center and to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center every 6 hours at synoptic times for each currently active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, E. Pacific, W. Pacific, Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere.

The tropical cyclone genesis potential, originally developed for the tropical eastern Atlantic, has been generalized to include Western Caribbean region. Details of this new regional genesis potential can be seen at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gparm/genesis.asp

A manuscript entitled, “Annular Hurricanes” by J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, was reviewed by Weather and Forecasting and is accepted subject to some revision. The paper documents the existence of major hurricanes, which are nearly symmetric with little or little outer rainband activity, and have large eyes, the environment in which they occur and objective method for identifying them in an operational setting. See past quarterly reports for further details.

A manuscript entitled “Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived From Climatology and Persistence” was reviewed by Weather and Forecasting and accepted subject to some revisions. The paper describes the development and performance of statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecasting models for the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and the western North Pacific, which utilized CLImatology and PERsistence (CLIPER) as a basis. CLIPER models are primarily run operationally for evaluation of other forecast models as part of the year-end verification process. These 5-day forecast models replace older 3-day forecast models in the operational suite at the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as these forecast centers evaluate the issuance of 5-day tropical cyclone forecasts. Independent operational performance of the models in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins are comparable to their predecessors (out to 72 hr), while the model developed for the western North Pacific produced forecast that were between 5 and 20% better than its predecessor.

Datasets for studying global tropical cyclones are being collected and archived on a real-time basis. Routine datasets include high-density cloud drift winds, QuikScat winds, hurricane reconnaissance, surface and upper air reports, and AMSU quick look data sets. 

A new method for assessing environmental vertical wind shear was tested with Hurricane Erin and Tropical Storm Chantal. The method averages the CIMSS high-density wind vectors in the pressure layer 125-250 hPa, over a 444 km radius circle around the surface center. The tropical cyclone motion vector is then subtracted from the high-level satellite wind vector to obtain a measurement of vertical shear. Preliminary results show reasonable agreement with IR cloud asymmetry and numerical model analysis vertical shear quantities with respect to both direction and magnitude. Additional testing is needed with a larger sample and for comparison with different vertical shear layers. Those results along with IR cloud asymmetry measurements with Hurricane Erin were presented at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology held in San Diego, April 29- May 2.

A manuscript entitled, “Three Approaches to Quantitative Observations of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear with Hurricane Bertha,” has been reviewed for publication in Weather and Forecasting. It has been accepted “with major revision.” The paper will be re-submitted in July.

A log of the contents of the tropical cyclone archive was recently updated. Sixty-two tropical cyclones have been added thus far for 2001-2002. This included 21 Southern Hemisphere cases and 10 from the western North Pacific. The archive is complete for the 2001 seasons in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific with 15 named storms in each basin. The total archive now is comprised of 220 tropical cyclones (149 of hurricane intensity, and 83 that are Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or higher). There are approximately 57,000 MCIDAS images with 4 km resolution on a Mercator projection, which are stored on a set of 32 CDs. This data set continues to be extremely valuable for qualitative and quantitative tropical cyclone analysis.

A study is underway to investigate the effect of satellite spatial resolution on hurricane IR temperature measurements within the eye. The purpose is to study the feasibility of doing temperature retrievals within hurricane eyes with an IR sounder. Simulated sensor resolutions at 4 to 48 km and resultant IR eye temperature measurements from GOES channel 4 imagery were computed for seven Atlantic hurricanes near the time of maximum intensity. 

The results suggested three categories of hurricanes according to resolution needed for representative eye soundings:  1) not well suited for eye soundings, resolution less than 1 km needed; 2) 1-10 km resolution needed 3) the current GOES sounder resolution of 10 km is adequate.

A new VISIT training session titled “Cyclogenesis: Analysis Utilizing Geostationary Satellite Imagery” has been presented to 24 NWS offices thus far (see VISIT).

J. Dostalek, M. DeMaria, and J. Weaver gave presentations at Colorado State University’s Kids in College Program which is a weeklong series of lectures and hands-on learning. Dostalek’s and DeMaria’s presentations were entitled “Hurricanes and Their Impacts.” Weaver gave a presentation on Emergency Response considerations during various weather-related disasters.

An updated version of Principal Component Image (PCI) software from CIRA has been made available to Brian Hughes at the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). The updated software has capabilities for analysis of GOES-12 imagery with the new band-6 at 13.3 um, replacing band-5 at 12.0 um. Changes in the software are needed due to changes in the GVAR data stream with GOES-12. The PCI code will be used at SAB for analysis of volcanic ash in GOES imagery.

Software for Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis on McIDAS area files has been made available via ftp to Jeff Wilson at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology. Assistance was given with program setup and data analysis.

A manuscript entitled “Detection of Important Atmospheric and Surface Features by Employing Principal Component Image Transformation of GOES Imagery” by D. Hillger and G. Ellrod has been returned with second reviews by the Journal of Applied Meteorology.

Future GOES:

D. Hillger was appointed Chair of the subcommittee for Instruments Of Opportunity (IOO) to replace M. DeMaria at the GOES User’s Working Group (GWUG) meeting on March 26 in Boulder CO. CIRA hosted a second meeting of the Sub-committee Chairs of the GOES User’s Working Group (GUWG) on June 13. The meetings included reports from the GUWG Sub-committee Chairs and discussion of the agenda for the Second GOES Users Conference to be held October 1-3 in Boulder CO.

Processing of the U.S. climatologies is now on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for February, March, April and May 2002, and wind regime composites for February, March and April. Monthly wind regime composites covering the past five years has been completed for February, March, and April

Data processing for the Cheyenne project has started. Data for the months of interest are being pulled off tape and reduced to the sector earlier approved by the Cheyenne office. A visit of senior forecaster, Michael Weiland, within the next month is currently being arranged.

Two new cloud detection algorithms are currently being developed. One uses a channel 4 (10.7 um) background and threshold, based on a similar algorithm used by the Climatological and Historical Analysis of Environmental Simulations (CHANCES) project. It is currently being tested and shows promise for the Cheyenne project. Another algorithm that uses the shortwave product developed by Stan Kidder and Don Hillger is also in development.

In new developments, hourly Matt Knipp has developed a program to aid in image quality control. It is currently in the testing phase and shows promise.

J. Weaver and D. Bikos worked with G. Byrd (COMET), T. Niziol (NWS) and G. Mann (NWS) in Boulder CO to review ideas and go over a number of Powerpoint slides that will eventually be incorporated into the new “Advanced Lake Effect Snow Forecasting” VISIT training session. Weaver also met with S. Benjamin of Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder to ask if he would like to participate in the session design by providing some RUC-20 sensitivity studies on a Lake Effect Snow case. He has agreed to join the team, and begun data acquisition.

A McIDAS program was written which utilizes input from the Eta model to calculate the motion of right and left moving thunderstorms. The program is based on a 2000 Weather and Forecasting article by Bunkers et al., and is being used in the study of the splitting thunderstorm event of 25 May 1999.

GOES-12:

Additional analysis of data from the GOES-12 Science Tests (fall of 2001) has been completed. Imager noise is 0.22 K or less, and detector-to-detector striping averaged over an image is small but measurable, on the same order of magnitude as the noise. Analysis of both imager noise and striping has been posted on the web at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/goesm/Test_Results.htm

A draft of the GOES-12 Science Test Technical Report, including the results of analyses of GOES-12 Science Test data at CIRA, has been forwarded to the other two editors (T. Schmit and J. Daniels) for inclusion of the contributions from CIMSS and FPDT.

GOES-11:

GOES-11 was reactivated in a continuous 5-min imaging mode over a two-week window (3-19 June) to support the International H2O Project (IHOP). Data for several cases were collected.

A new machine was configured to update the Brazil Fires RAMSDIS-OS/2 system. The new system will incorporate the McIDAS-NT version utilizing the Graphical User Interface. The ingest settings have been modified and the system is ingesting the South American regions. Currently, the software and applications are being ported over to the McIDAS-NT version. The new Brazil Fires RAMSDIS system will be run on the Microsoft Windows 2000 Operating System. The completion of transfer and porting of the application is estimated to be in the first week of July. Additional updates will feature updated 64MB ASUS Graphic Accelerator cards and an increase in the memory capacity from 256 MB to 512 MB.

J. Weaver and D. Bikos met with T. Niziol (NWS, Buffalo) and G. Mann (NWS, Detroit) several times in Boulder CO to scope out material, then to go over a number of Powerpoint slides, for a new “Advanced Lake Effect Snow Forecasting” VISIT teletraining session.

M. DeMaria visited the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami to discuss several Joint Hurricane Testbed projects that RAMM Team and TPC are collaborating on.

J. Weaver met with S. Benjamin of Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder to ask if he would like to participate in the new Lake Effect Snow session design by providing some RUC-20 sensitivity studies. He has agreed to join the team, and begun data acquisition.

M. DeMaria visited the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami to discuss several Joint Hurricane Testbed projects that RAMM Team and AOML are collaborating on.

M. DeMaria visited the Tropical Prediction Center in Miami to discuss several Joint Hurricane Testbed projects that RAMM Team and AOML are collaborating on.

Tomoko Koyama, a graduate student at CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, passed the Master’s Degree exam that included presenting a seminar to the department and CIRA personnel. Ms. Koyama’s thesis “MODIS Thermal Emissive Band Error Estimation Using Structure Function Analysis” requires some additional work but will be completed soon. The work was accomplished under NOAA Grant funding. Ms. Koyama is employed in Tokyo at the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

J. Weaver continues his work with Nolan Doesken (Colorado Climate Center, CSU) on a short paper for the Journal of Climate utilizing mesoscale precipitation data collected by volunteers within the Climate Center’s CoCo RAHS (Community Collaborative Rain and Hail Study) study area. There are more than 100 volunteers measuring daily precipitation in and around the Fort Collins area. The observers receive training and a 4″ NWS style rain gauge to make their measurements.

Software, which converts Aviation model data from grib format to McIDAS grid file format, was sent to Clay Davenport (ARAD, Hydrology team). The programs will supply Aviation model grid files to the autoestimator, which is to be installed on the Hurricane Mitch server in Costa Rica.

Dave Watson gave training for RAMSDIS/McIDAS-NT and VISITview at EUMETSAT during March 21-26. Materials prepared included examples of data ingest and cases of GOES super rapid scan imagery, regional climatology products, satellite-based precipitation estimates and fire products. Other materials were also gathered for RAMSDIS installation and troubleshooting of ingest as well as the utilization of VISITview for training activities. RAMSDIS and Visit View are some of the tools to be used internationally in the Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Data Utilization of which EUMETSAT is a part. The latest version of the International Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Data Utilization Web Site can be found at

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/wmovl/main.html

Brazil Project:

A short training course on using McIDAS software was provided to Wilfred Schroeder of IBAMA in Brasilia, Brazil. The local data specification methodologies were explained in order to implement the new data-naming scheme that would house the new data. The addition of the new data-name was necessary due to the satellite data validation campaign scheduled for the month of February. A few commands to display the data were reviewed in order for the data to be displayed manually. Two URL’s of web sites that contained the McIDAS User’s Guide manuals were given to reference the command files:

http://procyon/ramm/infrastructure/Gosden/RAMSDIS/7.5/man/user/html/McHTML.1.HTML and

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/mug/users_guide/7.5/McHTML.1.HTML

Japanese Interaction:

Nothing to Report This Quarter

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

D. Molenar installed and tested the Fortran compilers required to port the Rainfall Autoestimator software to the Costa Rican server. Additional system administration support was also supplied to R. Alfaro to assist in this effort. 

RMTC Project:

Nothing to Report This Quarter

SICA Project:

Nothing to Report This Quarter

Web-based versions for all VISIT training sessions can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

The following web page on Hurricane Mitch is still available:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/MitchProject/default.htm

Wakefield Wind Climatology: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/clim/Wakefield/windr.html

A new RAMSDIS Online interactive web page was set up to include tropical products. This Interactive version of RAMSDIS Online uses the VISITview application to allow users to collaborate across distances using real-time satellite data. There are now three versions of VISITview RAMSDIS Online Interactive (GOES-EAST, GOES-WEST, and now Tropical). See this at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rol.html

John Weaver and Dan Bikos created a satellite interpretation discussion page entitled “Analysis of the GOES Visible Imagery from the 5 May 2002 Tornado Event,” dated May 7. This presentation can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/020507/020507.html

Troubleshooting support was provided to Daphne Zaras and the NSSL network support group in resolving a firewall networking problem that prevented the RAMSDIS system from ingesting data.

D. Molenar has been working with CSU, NWS and NOAA staff to complete the ownership transfer of 15 RAMSDIS workstations still in the field. Although the RAMSDIS project has officially ended, the NWS sites have opted to keep using the workstations for as long as they are functional.

A RAMSDIS system was setup to collect and display GOES-11 data during the International H20 Project, a Central Plains experiment that was conducted from 13 May – 25 June 2002. GOES-11 was activated from 3-19 June and data from the continuous 5-minute feed were both archived and displayed in real-time on RAMDSIS Online.

R. Zehr presented a VISITview session on May 21st and May 28th for the Asia-Pacific Satellite Applications Training Course (APSAT) in Australia. There were approximately 40 participants. This VISITview session is an updated version of “Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones.” It includes some new content, particularly on scatterometer winds and subtropical cyclones. Dan Lindsey, Dan Bikos, and Mark DeMaria at CIRA and Jeff Wilson at Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, provided assistance. M. DeMaria also provided a satellite discussion using real-time data via VISITview for the APSAT course.

D. Bikos and J. Weaver continue development work for two new teletraining sessions – Advanced Lake Effect Snow Prediction, and Applications of GOES-derived Winds.

During this quarter, 66 VISIT teletraining sessions were delivered, 1364 students from 361 NWS offices participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter include: Tornado Warning Guidance 2002 (taught by Jim Ladue of WDTB), Fog Detection and Analysis with Satellite Data (taught by Gary Ellrod of NESDIS), Meteorological Uses of ACARS Data (taught by Rich Mamrosh of NWS Green Bay, WI), Cyclogenesis: Analysis utilizing Satellite Imagery (taught by D. Bikos and J. Weaver)

For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

The following list provides a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 21, 2002. 

A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999. As of June 21, the total is 8191 certificates.

After each VISIT teletraining session an e-mail is sent out to the focal points with an evaluation. Here is a portion of the evaluation:

Click on image to enlarge

Rate questions #1-9 on a scale of 1 to 5:

1 –> strongly disagree
2 –> disagree
3 –> indifferent
4 –> agree
5 –> strongly agree

If you rate a question as 1 or 2, please discuss why.

1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.
2) The content of the session was appropriate.
3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.
4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.
5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me
involved in the session and test my learning.
6) The instructor explained the material clearly.
7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.
8) The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are
directly applicable to my job
9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

Below is a graph that summarizes these evaluation questions (from December 2000 through the present):

Click on image to enlarge

The graph shows that the vast majority of respondents answered 4 or 5, meaning they responded very positively to the above 9 questions.

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Cyclogenesis:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Boundary Detection:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Detecting Boundaries:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow (student guide, web based session link temporarily on this page):

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

NDIC:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Using AWIPS to Evaluate Model Initializations:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/modelinit/title.asp

An Ingredients-Based Methodology for Forecasting Winter Precipitation:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ingredients/title.asp

Precipitation Type Forecasting:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ptype/title.asp

HPC Medium Range Forecasting:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/MRF-HPC/title.asp

An Application of Pattern Recognition to Medium Range Forecasting

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/MRF-pattern/title.asp

Using Near-Storm Environment Data in the WDM Process:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/nse/title.asp

The Top Ten Misconceptions of NWP Models:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/nwptop10/title.asp

GOES Sounder Data and Products:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/sounder/title.asp

GOES High-Density Winds:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/goeswinds/title.asp

Mesoscale Analysis using GOES RSO Imagery:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

Forecasting Mesoscale Convective Systems:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mcs/title.asp

An Introduction to POES Data and Products:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/poes/title.asp

Ensemble Prediction Systems:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/eps/title.asp

What can you expect from the Eta-12?

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/eta12/title.asp

Fog Detection and Analysis with Satellite Data:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/fog/title.asp

Meteorological uses of ACARS data:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/acars/title.asp

J. Weaver attended the COMET Budget/Priority Subcommittee Meeting as the NESDIS representative. The meeting was held in Boulder CO. COMET project leaders presented brief summaries of FY 2002 accomplishments. Budgetary matters and development tasking priorities were discussed. Several presentations came from material on the COMET Meteorological Education page found at: http://meted.ucar.edu/modules.htm). Two presentations of particular interest were “Cold Air Damming” and “Forecasting Radiation Fog” under the Mesoscale Meteorology header. One unusual presentation involved a K-12 computer game designed to teach kids about hurricanes. The module was partially funded by FEMA, and M. DeMaria provided some help with subject matter. The module is called “Hurricane Strike.” and can be found at: http://deved.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/strike/index.htm. 

M. DeMaria gave a 45-minute presentation entitled “Coastal and Inland Effects of Tropical Cyclones” and a related 30-minute laboratory exercise at the COMET COMAP class in Boulder, Colorado. About 25 students from the National Weather Service were in attendance. 

J. Weaver met with the new Fort Collins Emergency Manager and part-time staff (firefighters from the Poudre Fire Authority) to provide information on utilizing data that appears on EMWIN, the Emergency Manager’s Weather Information Network.

The Kids in College program of the Colorado State University is an annual event in which children entering the 4th to 8th grades attend a weeklong series of presentations and hands on training in one of the offered subject areas. J. Dostalek and M. DeMaria gave talks on hurricanes and J. Weaver gave two presentations on response to natural disasters to the attendees of the Weather Research course.

M. DeMaria gave two presentations on Weather and Tropical Cyclones to 8th grade “gifted” science students and one presentation to “special needs” science students at Lesher Jr. High School in Fort Collins, CO. All three classes asked interesting questions, and one student described her experience in Hurricane Andrew when she lived in South Florida in 1992.

A new RAMSDIS Online interactive web page was set up to include tropical products. This Interactive version of RAMSDIS Online uses the VISITview application to allow users to collaborate across distances using real-time satellite data. There are now three versions of VISITview RAMSDIS Online Interactive (GOES-EAST, GOES-WEST, and now Tropical). See this at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rol.html.

RAMSDIS Online was temporarily updated to include GOES-11, 5-minute imagery in support of the IHOP (International H2O Project) field experiment. The satellite was activated from storage to support the experiment. Data were collected and stored at CIRA for future research.
Software that converts Aviation and NOGAPS model data in grib format to McIDAS grid format was written.

Given: See VISIT and COMET

Received:

Published:

Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, B.C. Motta, 2002: A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak within Oklahoma. Weather and Forecasting, 17, 635-646.

Connell, B.H., C. Combs, M. DeMaria, 2002: Regional Satellite Cloud Composites for Forecast Offices. CIRA 2002 (CIRA Newsletter), 17, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins CO, 18-19.

DeMaria, M., R.M. Zehr, J.P. Kossin, J.A. Knaff, 2002: The Use of GOES Imagery in Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 120-121.

Demuth, J., K. Brueske, J.A. Knaff, C. Velden, M. DeMaria, 2002: An Evaluation of CIMSS and CIRA AMSU Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithms. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 27-28.

Hillger, D.W., 2002: Changes in the GOES-12 Imager. CIRA 2002 (CIRA Newsletter), 17, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins CO, 13-14.

Hillger, D.W., 2002: Images of smoke and fires from MODIS and GOES, CIRA Magazine, 18, 3-4.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, 2002: Estimating the Probability of Rapid Intensification Using the SHIPS Model Output: Some Preliminary Results. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 124-125.

Knaff, J.A., J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2002: What are Annular Hurricanes? 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 609-610.

Knaff, J.A., C.S. Velden, 2002: Examining the Eight-Day Evolution of Upper Level Winds in Hurricane Floyd. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 37-38.

Landsea, C.W., J.A. Knaff, 2002: How much “skill” was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2001 La Nina events? 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, 2002: The Impact of Oceanic Heat Content on Hurricane Intensity Forecasts Using the SHIPS Model. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 627-628.

Marks, Jr., F., G. Kappler, M. DeMaria, 2002: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 327-328.

Schubert, W.H., B.D. McNoldy, J. Vigh, S.R. Fulton, R.M. Zehr, 2002: A Case Study of Tropical Cyclone Merger. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 293-294.

Zehr, R.M., 2002: Vertical Wind Shear Characteristics with Atlantic Hurricanes During 2001. 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April-3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 170-171.

To Submitted

Accepted:

Bikos, D.E., J.F. Weaver, B.C. Motta, 2001: A satellite perspective of the 3 May 1999 Great Plains Tornado Outbreak within Oklahoma. Weather and Forecasting.

Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 2001: Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.

Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke Sr., J.A. Knaff, and E. Kalnay, 2002: Changes in global monsoon circulations: evidence for a diminishing hydrological cycle? Natural Hazards.

Ellrod, G., B.H. Connell, D.W. Hillger, 2001: Improved detection of airborne volcanic ash using 
multi-spectral infrared satellite data. J. Geophys. Res.

Hillger, D.W., J. Clark, 2002: Principal Component Image Analysis of MODIS for Volcanic Ash – Parts I and II. Journal of Applied Meteorology.

Kidder, S.Q., D.W. Hillger, A.J. Mostek, K.J. Schrab, 2001: Two simple GOES imager products for improved weather analysis and forecasting. National Weather Digest.

Weaver, J.F., J.A. Knaff, D.E. Bikos, G.S. Wade, J.M. Daniels, 2002: Reply to Comments on: Satellite Observations of a Severe Supercell Thunderstorm on 24 July 2000 made during the GOES-11 Science Test. Weather and Forecasting.

Submitted:

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Grasso, L.D., 2001: The dependence of thunderstorm evolution on the initial convective trigger. 
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Grasso, L.D., 2001: Simulation of a left moving cell following storm splitting. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Hillger, D.W., G.P. Ellrod, 2002: Detection of Important Atmospheric and Surface Features by 
Employing Principal Component Image Transformation of GOES Imagery. Journal of Applied 
Meteorology.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.M. Gross, 2002: Statistical, Five-Day Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Derived from Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.

Knaff, J.A., J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria: Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting.

Zehr, R.M., 2002: Three approaches to quantitative observations of environmental vertical wind shear with Hurricane Bertha. Weather and Forecasting.

Configuration of a system to mirror the RAMM/CIRA HP C3000 has been completed. The C3000 is used heavily for data ingest and analysis during hurricane season, and failing hardware required that a backup system also be made available.

Several reconfigurations of the VISIT Server were performed in response a series of compromises in the system from the computer hackers. The latest service packs had to be reloaded after an initialization of the file transfer protocol (ftp). Otherwise, the security hole in the ftp enabled the hackers to setup a DVD Movie server on the VISIT system.

FX-Net software update was performed on the CIRA Lab system. A troubleshoot of the system and contacting the FX-Net development team revealed a need for an update on the software. The proper zip files were downloaded and installed.

Efforts were made to install the latest version of the CIMSS Dvorak Technique Analysis software on RAMM HP computers. Library incompatibilities prohibited the installation, but a previous version of the software was resurrected and implemented.

The ARAD IDL license is being utilized by several RAMM/CIRA researchers. A seminar illustrating the power of IDL was given by Dr. Inger Solheim. The seminar was helpful in jump-starting the use of IDL.

D. Molenar and M. DeMaria participated in the annual reviews of the CIRA RAMM Team Staff. As usual, CIRA management was impressed with the volume of accomplishments from the group. 

M. DeMaria received the Banner I. Miller Award with John Kaplan of the Hurricane Research Division at the AMS 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. The award was presented for the first ever model-based skillful operational intensity forecasts of tropical cyclones documented in their two papers published during the years 1998-2001.

M. DeMaria was appointed as an Associate Editor for the American Meteorological Society Monthly Weather Review Journal. He will be working with Drs. David Jorgensen and Bill Kuo of NCAR to assist with papers regarding tropical cyclones and tropical meteorology.

M. DeMaria received a certificate of appreciation from Dr. Kristina Katsaros, the director of AOML for continued research interaction with scientists from HRD, and for receiving the AMS Banner Miller Award with John Kaplan from HRD.

The RAMM Team completed its SFA (Survey Feedback Action) meeting, which was facilitated by Gary Magnusson of NOS. Four issues were raised during the three-hour meeting. These issues and proposed actions have been entered into the “action tracker” software. K. Fryer assisted with the logistics of the meeting and took meeting notes.

AMS: American Meteorological Society 

AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit 

ARAD: Atmospheric Research and Applications Division 

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System 

CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment 

CG: Cloud to Ground 

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies 

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere 

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training 

CONUS: Continental U.S. 

CRAD: Climate Research and Applications Division 

CSU: Colorado State University 

EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite 

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency 

FTP: File Transfer Protocol 

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan 

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 

HRD: Hurricane Research Division 

IR: Infrared 

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System 

LES: Lake Effect Snow 

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System 

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research 

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards 

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service 

NHC: National Hurricane Center 

NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service 

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NWS: National Weather Service 

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office 

OM: Office of Meteorology 

ORA: Office of Research and Applications 

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment 

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite 

POP: Product Oversight Panel 

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team 

RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System 

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite
Demonstration and Interpretation System 

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center 

ROL: RAMSDIS Online 

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch 

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center 

SOO: Science Operations Officer 

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation 

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study 

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center 

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program 

UTC: Universal Time Coordinated 

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training 

WMO: World Meteorological Organization 

WV: Water Vapor 

Visitors: Visitor Date of Visit Affiliation RAMMT Contact R. Deslandis April 16 Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne, Australia M. DeMaria * Chinese Delegation April 30 NSMC Beijing PRC D. Hillger and D. Molenar R. Knabb June 6 Tropical Prediction Center Miami, FL M. DeMaria * A group of 10 scientists and engineers from the Peoples Republic of China visited CIRA on their tour of NESDIS facilities in the United States. The visit included a tour of the CIRA satellite ground station and presentations on satellite image products and display systems. One of the visitors, Mr. Yang Jun, had spent many months at CIRA helping develop software for RAMSDIS during its initial stages. Meetings/Conferences: Traveler Destination Meetings, Conferences Funding Dates M. DeMaria xR. Zehrxx J. Knaffx San Diego, CA AMS 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology GIMPAP USWRP GIMPAP 29 April – 3 May L. Grasso Washington, DC Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting Workshop USWRP HRD 29 – 30 May