Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

“Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting.

“Some Frequently Overlooked Visual Severe Thunderstorm Characteristics observed on GOES Imagery – a Topic for Future Research” by John F. Weaver and Dan Lindsey appears in the June 2004 issue of Monthly Weather Review

The software used to generate the GOES shortwave albedo product has been modified, as an option, to delete the cold cloud top enhancement used for temperatures below -30 deg C. The enhancement is still the default for the software, but the new option allows viewing of shortwave albedos of towering cumulus and cirrus clouds normally not available in the previous version of the program. This was needed, since it was noted that some high clouds are much more reflective than others in GOES shortwave band-2 (3.9 µm). With the new option storm tops with different shortwave reflective characteristics will be studied in more detail. This work is in preparation for a possible new satellite-based severe weather/tropical cyclone short-term forecast product. An example of a potential cloud top product from both GOES-12 and GOES-10 is shown in Figure 1. Research will continue to determine the cause of these variations and whether they have any application to severe weather/tropical cyclone forecasting.
 
 

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1. Example of the variability of the 3.9 m m albedo at the top of thunderstorms occurring 27 May 2004 between 2130 and 2145 UTC as viewed from a) GOES-10 and b) GOES-12. Only cloud top areas with temperatures colder than –40 C are shown, which should remove the effects of liquid water and emphasize the variations of ice properties (mostly size). Enhanced areas of 3.9 µm albedo are shown by the purple to pink color enhancement. In this enhancement green has an albedo of 0.04 and red are albedo values of 0.10 and above. Note that imagery from both GOES-12 and GOES-10 show similar albedo variations, but different magnitudes.

RAMM Team members continue their analysis of severe weather cases where satellite imagery was key in showing returning moisture prior to a severe convective event. The results of this study will be compiled for a VISIT training session, and will be considered as a possible submission to Weather and Forecasting.

(DeMaria, Zehr, Knaff, Dostalek))

Operational hurricane intensity forecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) have considerably less skill than track forecasts. During the 2002 and 2003 hurricane seasons, a version of the NCEP/TPC Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) that includes satellite observations was developed and run in parallel with the operational version, which does not utilize satellite input. New input includes GOES channel 4 imagery to help identify the strength of deep convection near the storm center, and satellite altimetry observations (Atlantic only) that identify areas of the ocean that have very large heat contents, which favors intensification. The satellite data improved the 48-hour SHIPS intensity forecasts by about 4% for Atlantic storms west of 50oW and by about 8% in the eastern North Pacific basin. Smaller improvements were obtained at all forecast periods out to 72 h. Based upon these positive impacts, the satellite version of the SHIPS model was made operational for the 2004 hurricane season. The new version was implemented at NCEP on May 21st.

AMSU based tropical cyclone intensity estimates have become operational at the National Hurricane Center.  The final operational transition of AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity and size estimates has been completed.  Updated coefficients for this prediction will be provided to NHC for the 2004 hurricane season.

The Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme (STIPS) continues to outperform all other intensity guidance for the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center since a new scheme was made operational in June of 2003.  Results (Storms 01W – 09W) of STIPS (STIP) and the Decay version of STIPS (STID) in terms of percent reduction in errors versus the purely statistical, climatology and persistence model ST5D for 2004 are shown in Fig. 2.   Forecasts that have less error than ST5D are considered skillful.  The 2003 results along with a detailed description of the model were presented at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology in May and have been submitted for publication in Weather and Forecasting.  During this season, STIPS will be run using a variety of different forecast tracks and averaged to create a consensus intensity prediction.

Click on image to enlarge

Figure 1. Results of independent and homogeneous verification of STIPS forecasts for the 2004 typhoon season thus far. STIP is the version of the model that does not account for land-falling decay and STID is a inland decay version. Results are presented as the percent reduction in absolute intensity forecast error over forecasts based on Climatology and Persistence. There are 208, 196, 180, 167, 140, 77, and 52 forecasts verified at 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours. The best track data used for this verification is preliminary.

A project to expand the STIPS model formulation to the Southern Hemisphere and North Indian Ocean has been funded by the Office of Naval Research.  As part of this project a purely statistical, 5-day, tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme for the Southern Hemisphere was developed and supplied to the Naval Research Laboratory.  This scheme was implemented in the operational suite of products at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in early May 2004.

A finalized version of a Monte Carlo model that predicts 34, 50, 64, and 100-kt wind probabilities for tropical cyclones has been developed for use in the North Atlantic, and the eastern, central and western North Pacific.  Using official track and intensity forecast errors from the National Hurricane Center (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (Central Pacific) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (western North Pacific) along with initial wind radii and forecasts of intensity and track, this program generates maps of probabilities associated with experiencing 34, 50, 64, and 100-kt winds. This code has been supplied to the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey and the National Hurricane Center for adaptation to their operational suite of products. These programs will be used to test NAWIPS and web based product in the next quarter.

A statistical tropical cyclone wind radii forecast tool has been implemented into operations (on the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System) at both the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  The code produces forecast of  34, 50, 64, and 100-kt wind radii in four quadrants every 12 hours through 120 hours.  It uses the initial radii (persistence) along with a climatological vortex (climatology), in combination with track and intensity forecasts, to make its radii predictions. Such code provides much needed guidance for forecasting tropical cyclone wind radii and forms the foundation of routine verification of skill for wind radii forecasting.

More progress has been made in moving two tropical cyclone products (AMSU intensity estimation, GOES-based tropical cyclone genesis) from experimental phase (run at CIRA) to the pre-operational phase (run at NESDIS) under funding from the NESDIS Product System Development and Implementation (PSDI) Program.  Progress so far involves 1) the generalization of the GOES tropical cyclone genesis product to a continuous product, 2) the porting of Grib decoding software, and AMSU TC intensity estimates to Linux, 3) the verification of last years TC intensity estimations, 4) coordination with NESDIS/SAB/IPB personnel with various data and hardware needs, and 5) development of a detailed outline/flow chart of the implementation of these projects at NESDIS.  These products, which are running at CIRA in an experimental mode (see http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gparm/genesis.asp and http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/tropic/amsustrm.asp) will be transitioned to NESDIS operations for preoperational testing in the next quarter.

A manuscript entitled “A note on the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetric tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU” is in press and should be published within the next 6 months in Monthly Weather Review.  The paper discusses composite analyses to show that vertical wind shear increases the hurricane’s warm core structure and associated winds become shallower. Figure 3 shows the vertical wind shear based temperature/temperature anomaly composites and Figure 4 shows the composites of tangential wind.
 

Figure 2: Vertical wind shear based composites of temperature (contours) and temperature anomalies (shaded) in oC. Shown are Low shear (<3.8 ms -1) (left), moderate shear (3.8 ms -1 > shear >6.8 ms -1) (middle), and high shear (shear >= 6.8 ms -1) (right). Click on images to enlarge

Figure 3: Same as Fig. 2 except for balanced tangential wind in ms -1.

AMSU data from NOAA 15 and NOAA 16 were gathered for the lifecycle of the recent S. Atlantic tropical cyclone (19 April – 28 April). The Demuth et al. (2004) algorithm was used to process these raw data to provide intensity estimates, wind structure estimates, and 3-d temperature and height fields. The processed data was provided to R. Hart (The Florida State University) to assess their impact in better determining the structural phase (extratropical/cold core, subtropical /mixed core, or tropical/warm core). R. Hart’s analysis was included in a special session discussing the Brazilian Hurricane at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.

Updated code was sent to the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) for converting AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) data from BUFR files to ASCII files. The AMSU data are used in a retrieval algorithm, which creates temperature and wind profiles over tropical cyclones. Previously, the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) only supplied AMSU BUFR data that were corrected for sidelobe and limb affects, but the retrieval algorithm needs the raw antenna temperatures. NCEP now supplies antenna temperature data as well. Initial tests at TPC have been positive.

The Linux version of the routines used to convert GFS model data in grib format to a packed ASCII format for use in AMSU retrievals over tropical cyclones was updated to account for differences in Linux and HP-Unix, the platform for which the routines were originally written. Additionally, a version of the routines was prepared for use on an NCEP computer.

Historical MODIS 5-minute swaths are available on the NASA’s EOS Gateway Web site. The data can be sectorized and remapped in McIDAS. The 1-km resolution files covering Hurricane Isabel during 5-19 September 2003 and Hurricane Lili during 30 September B 3 October 2002, along with a few files at 250-m and 500-m resolution have been archived. AVHRR 1-km data files are also available on the NESDIS CLASS (Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System) Web site. Mercator-projection maps of Hurricane-centered IR imagery from 5 satellites (MODIS Terra and Aqua, NOAA-15, -16, and 17) have provided 97 views with 1 km resolution of Hurricane Isabel during 5-19 September 2003. The 1 km resolution captures features such as the thin spiral cloud lines with Hurricane Isabel’s inner core cloud top that are not well depicted with GOES IR images. These data constitute a large part of the hurricane case study material to be used in CIRA’s GOES-R and NPOESS Risk Reduction activities.

An upgraded version of Tropical RAMSDIS is being tested. The upgraded version has a new operating system and some additional products. A composite Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loop at 6 hour intervals covers the tropical Atlantic and some of the eastern Pacific. The TPW includes data from three DMSP and three NOAA satellites. Six additional microwave image products from AMSU and TRMM are displayed in the floater sectors that are moved to follow individual tropical cyclones.

(Bikos, Dostalek, Weaver)

A new VISIT session which deals with winter weather forecasting will include several aspects of utilizing satellite imagery to identify precipitating regions of extratropical cyclones.  Two cases have been completed thus far.

A two-dimensional model obtained from Vic Ooyama (formerly of the Hurricane Research Division) is being modified for use in the study of mid-latitude fronts.  The updated code now allows for the inclusion of a background temperature gradient and deformation field.  Testing of the code is underway.

A manuscript entitled “Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery” by J. Weaver, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey, C Schmidt and E. Prins appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting.  A PDF version of this paper can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.HTML

GOES and MODIS imagery were collected for various dust and volcanic eruption events.  The two types of events are being studied to determine similarities and differences and find new ways of using multi-channel imagery for detection of aviation hazards.  The following two figures are examples of products being developed.

Figure 1.   Brightness temperature difference (BTD) for 11.0-12.0 µm derived from GOES and MODIS and the BTD for 8.5-12.0 µm derived from MODIS for an eruption of the Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico in January 2001.  Ash shows up negative for BTD 11.0-12.0.  The negative signature highlighted on the BTD 8.5-12.0 µm imagery shows SO2 and H2SO4 as well as some ash. Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2.   Brightness temperature difference (BTD) for 11.0-12.0 µm derived from GOES and MODIS and the BTD for 8.5-12.0 µm derived from MODIS for a dust storm in Kansas in April 2004. Dust shows up negative for BTD 11.0-12.0.  The dust shows no BTD to slightly positive BTD on the BTD 8.5-12.0 product.

B. Connell attended the 2nd International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety in Alexandria Virginia, June 21-24, 2004.  A presentation was given on “Volcanic ash and aerosol detection versus dust detection using GOES and MODIS imagery.”

(Weaver, Dostalek)

The manuscript “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting.  A PDF version of this paper can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.HTML

(Gosden, Knaff, Watson, Zehr)

CAMEX-5 will be conducted in July and August of 2005 under the auspices of NASA’s Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Research Announcement. In response to this announcement, a letter of intent to submit a proposal was submitted to the NASA. The proposed work concentrates on the observational aspects of tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern North Pacific. The tentative title of the proposal is “Observational Analysis of Scale-Interactions Involved in Tropical Cyclone Formation.”

Meteosat-8 (MSG-1) imagery has recently become available on a developmental server at NOAA/NESDIS/ OSDPD/SSD in McIDAS form.  With an upgrade to version 2003a or b software, this data can be viewed and manipulated within McIDAS.  Sample images are attached of the 11 bands of visible/IR data at 3 km resolution and the single band-12 High Resolution Visible (HRV) at 1 km resolution.  MSG data are being used to simulate GOES-R data for the GOES-R Risk Reduction activities of the RAMM Team.

Figure 1.  Bands 1-11 of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) full-disk imagery at 3 km spatial resolution.

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) High Resolution Visible (HRV) band-12 image shown a) at same resolution as full-disk images in Figure 1, and b) a small portion over Gibraltar between Europe and Africa at full 1 km spatial resolution.

Code which creates McIDAS AREA files from simulated meteorological fields created with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System output has been updated to include convective inhibition as a field which may be plotted.  Other options include simulated 10.7 µm brightness temperatures, CAPE, total precipitable water, and lifted index.

The software used to generate the GOES shortwave albedo product has been modified, as an option, to delete the cold cloud top enhancement used for temperatures below -30 deg C.  The cloud top enhancement is still the default for the software, but the new option allows viewing of shortwave albedos of towering cumulus and cirrus clouds normally not available in the default version of the program.  This was needed, since it was noted that some high clouds are much more reflective than others in the GOES shortwave band-2 (3.9 µm).  With the new option storm tops with different shortwave reflective characteristics will be studied in more detail.  This work is in preparation for a possible new satellite-based severe weather short-term forecast product.

The software used to generate the shortwave albedo product from GOES data has now been modified to allow this product to be generated from image data available on polar-orbiting satellites.  The shortwave albedo can now be produced from the shortwave and longwave bands of both AVHRR and MODIS.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for March, April and May, 2004.

Processing of wind regime products is on schedule.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for February, March and April 2004 have been completed.  Six year, monthly combined visible products have also been completed for these months.

C. Combs attended the High Plains Mountain Weather Workshop, hosted by the National Weather Service (NWS), COMET, and the Cheyenne NWS office.  It was held in Boulder, CO on April 1, 2004.  She gave a presentation entitled, “Examining High Wind Events Using Satellite Cloud Cover Composites over the Cheyenne, WY region.”

Testing of a new algorithm for producing cloud/no cloud images by differencing imager channels 2 and 4, and adding a visible channel check for daytime hours was completed.  In addition, programs were written and tested to read NCEP analysis data, read Metar surface data, and to use information from these data sets to categorize cloud/no cloud data to produce cloud composites.

After discussions with Walter Strach and Warren Blier from the NWS office and CWSU in Monterey, a sector for the fog/marine stratus project over their area was selected.  Also, classification schemes for fog composites using surface winds from Travis Air Force Base and sea level pressure differences between Arcata, San Francisco, and Sacramento, CA were worked out.  Data processing procedures for fog project and currently processing cloud composites for June and July, 1999-2003 have been set up.

C. Combs submitted an abstract titled, “Exploring the timing of fog formation and dissipation over the San Francisco Bay area using satellite cloud climatologies,” to the 13th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography.  It has been accepted.

Pressure Regimes for Monterey fog/marine Stratus project:

AcSf = Arcata Sea Level Pressure – San Francisco Sea Level Pressure
SfSa = San Francisco Sea Level Pressure – Sacramento Sea Level Pressure
 

Figure 1.  Examples of four year composites for various pressure regimes; a) regime 2, b) regime 3, c) regime 5, and d) regime 8.

(Bikos, Weaver)

Several satellite data sets have been obtained for selected case studies chosen for CIRA’s GOES-R Risk Reduction activities. Satellite data sets include GOES Imager, AIRS, MODIS, and AVHRR. One of the cases chosen is the 12-14 Feb 2003 Lake Effect Snow event that affected both Lake Huron and Lake Ontario regions significantly.

(Knaff, Zehr, Watson)

An upgraded version of Tropical RAMSDIS is being tested. The new version has a new Linux operating system and some additional products and capabilities. A composite Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loop at 6 hour interval covers the tropical Atlantic and some of the eastern Pacific. The TPW includes data from three DMSP and three NOAA satellites. Six additional microwave image products from AMSU and TRMM are displayed in the floater sectors that are moved to follow individual tropical cyclones. In addition the compression software used to provide satellite data capabilities to the NOAA P-3 research aircraft has been ported to Linux.

(Zehr, Grasso, Weaver)

A manuscript entitled, “Microscale Aspects of Rainfall Patterns as Measured by a Local Volunteer Network” by N. Doesken, J. Weaver and M. Osecky has been accepted by National Weather Digest contingent on a number of revisions being completed.  N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center) is supervising this process.

J. Weaver has completed the first draft of an invited article entitled “Colorado’s Severe Downslope Windstorms” for the Colorado Climate Newsletter/Magazine.

(Molenar, Hillger)

The CoRP and RAMM home pages are being modified using the standard NESDIS web page template.

(Connell, Knaff, Gosden)

Brazil Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter

Japanese Interaction:

Nothing new to report this quarter

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imagery for March through May 2004 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for March – May 1997-2004 from 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica is presented in Figure 1.

Figure 1.  Monthly cloud frequency composites for March – May 1997-2004 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by a temperature threshold from 10.7 µm imagery for March – May 1998 – 2004 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.

Click on images to enlarges.

Figure 2.   Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for March – May of 1998 – 2004 for Barbados.

The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

A case study of heavy rain produced over the island of St. Lucia by a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough has been completed.  Selvin and Horace Burton of the RMTC in Barbados will be releasing the case study on CD.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)
——————————
SICA Project:

The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html  The site continues to be useful as a backup for the imagery when the server in Costa Rica goes down.
WMO (Connell, Lindsey, Watson)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) held a regional training seminar for national instructors from Regions III and IV in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 17-28 May 2004.  D. Lindsey (CIRA) attended the first week and provided three 50-minute lectures on satellite meteorology.  The lectures i) provided a general overview of both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites (including future satellite systems), ii) showed examples of the many satellite products available, iii) offered some image interpretation techniques, and iv) provided a list of resources for satellite data and products.  Thirty-five participants from 29 different Central and South American countries included primarily individuals in charge of meteorological training.

An article has been published in the spring issue of the CIRA Magazine entitled “National and International Training Activities at CIRA” by Bernadette Connell, Dan Bikos, Dan Lindsey, John Weaver, and Tony Mostek.  To view the article as a PDF document, go to this link: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/newsletter/spring2004.pdf

(Connell, Lindsey, Watson)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) held a regional training seminar for national instructors from Regions III and IV in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 17-28 May 2004.  D. Lindsey (CIRA) attended the first week and provided three 50-minute lectures on satellite meteorology.  The lectures i) provided a general overview of both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites (including future satellite systems), ii) showed examples of the many satellite products available, iii) offered some image interpretation techniques, and iv) provided a list of resources for satellite data and products.  Thirty-five participants from 29 different Central and South American countries included primarily individuals in charge of meteorological training.

An article has been published in the spring issue of the CIRA Magazine entitled “National and International Training Activities at CIRA” by Bernadette Connell, Dan Bikos, Dan Lindsey, John Weaver, and Tony Mostek.  To view the article as a PDF document, go to this link: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/newsletter/spring2004.pdf

(Molenar, Gosden, Watson)

The Linux Ulysses replacement has been configured.   Applications port is underway.

(DeMaria, Molenar, Fryer, Grasso)

Mid-year review meetings with all NOAA RAMMB staff were completed the week of April 2.

M. DeMaria’s appointment as an adjunct faculty member in the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science was renewed for the 2004-2005 academic year. He is currently serving on the committees of three CSU graduate students.

(Molenar, Watson, Gosden, Micke)

The hardware purchased with ORA funds has arrived.  This includes 3 workstations, 1 laptop, and 1 Linux workstation.  User workstations are being configured.

(Fryer)

(Fryer)

Dr. Christopher Landsea of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division visited CIRA April 2nd and 3rd to collaborate with J. Knaff. Dr. Landsea also gave a CIRA seminar discussing the Atlantic hurricane best track reanalysis during his visit.

Dr. Jack Beven from the NCEP Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) visited RAMMB on May 14 th. Jack is one of the 6 hurricane forecasters at TPC, and gave an informal seminar on the hurricane forecast process. Informal discussions were also held on the RAMMB Joint Hurricane Testbed projects.

M. DeMaria, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, R. Zehr, B. Connell, J. Dostalek, and C. Combs presented an overview of RAMMT/CIRA activities to Fran Holt, CoRP Director, on June 8.

(Fryer)

Visitors:

Meetings/Conferences/Workshops:
 

AMS: American Meteorological Society

AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment

CG: Cloud to Ground

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

CONUS: Continental U.S.

CoRP: Cooperative Research Programs

CSU: Colorado State University

EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency

FTP: File Transfer Protocol

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

HRD: Hurricane Research Division

IR: Infrared

JHT: Joint Hurricane Transition

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System

LES: Lake-Effect Snow

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

NHC: National Hurricane Center

NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWS: National Weather Service

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

OM: Office of Meteorology

ORA: Office of Research and Applications

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

POP: Product Oversight Panel

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite
Demonstration and Interpretation System

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

ROL: RAMSDIS Online

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

SHIPS: Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

STIPS: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

SOO: Science Operations Officer

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

STAR: Office of Satellite Research and Development

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

UTC: Universal Time Coordinated

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

WMO: World Meteorological Organization

WV: Water Vapor

(DeMaria, Gosden, Dostalek)

A new committee consisting of Deb Molenar, Dave Watson, Hiro Gosden, Kathy Fryer, and Kevin Micke was created to oversee and perform the upgrade and standardization of the RAMMB website.  The new site will have a revised appearance and will follow the guidelines set forth by both the World Wide Web Consortium and US Section 508 in order to make it accessible to as many users as possible.

(Molenar, Bikos, Weaver)

A proposal for funds to install a NOAAPORT ingest at CIRA has been submitted to NWS.

A request for a proposal for a “baby AWIPS” system has been sent to Northrup Gruman.

(Molenar, Connell, Dostalek, Gosden, Hillger)

An upgraded version of Tropical RAMSDIS is being tested.  The updated version has a new Linux operating system and some additional products and capabilities.  A composite Total Precipitable Water (TPW) loop at 6 hour interval covers the tropical Atlantic and some of the eastern Pacific.  The TPW includes data from three DMSP and three NOAA satellites.  Six additional microwave image products from AMSU and TRMM are displayed in the floater sectors that are moved to follow individual tropical cyclones.  In addition the compression software used to provide satellite data capabilities to the NOAA P-3 research aircraft has been ported to Linux.

(Bikos, Weaver, Lindsey, Zehr)

During this quarter 58 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered, 1226 students from 368 NWS offices participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter:  1) Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm and 2) GOES Sounder Point Retrievals in AWIPS (taught by Bikos and Lindsey).  For more information on this session see:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cldhgt.html

A number of winter weather cases have been archived for development of a training session
that deals with using satellite imagery for analysis of winter storms. Work is ongoing in analyzing the cases to be used in this new teletraining session.

In preparation for the sounder point retrievals teletraining session (above), D. Lindsey performed a verification study for GOES sounder point retrievals in AWIPS.  It was found that on average, the sounder has errors comparable to the NCEP global model first-guess (6-hour forecast) for dew point temperature.  The sounder is slightly better than the global model aloft (around 300mb), but slightly worse than the global model forecast in the lower atmosphere (near 850mb).  However, a linear combination of the global model forecast and the sounder retrieved dew point produces a better estimate than either by itself. This result indicates that the sounder is providing useful dew point temperature information that is independent of the first guess used in the retrieval.

A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations.  The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999.  As of June 19, the total is 13,628 certificates.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 19, 2004.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

Note: Numbers from the Climate Services Professional Development Series are not included in the totals above, the numbers are listed here:

The following bar graph is a compilation of evaluations that are sent to the individual who signed up for
each VISIT training session.  They are asked to respond with a number ranging from 1 through 5 where 1 means strongly disagree to 5 which means strongly agree.  The questions asked are:
1)  The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.
2)  The content of the session was appropriate.
3)  Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.
4)  The graphics contributed well to my understanding.
5)  The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me
    involved in the session and test my learning.
6)  The instructor explained the material clearly.
7)  My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.
8)  The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are directly applicable to my job
9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

The total number of responses to each question are listed below:

The graph shows that the responses are overwhelmingly positive for each category.

The following map shows how many VISIT teletraining sessions have been completed by each NWS WFO as well as CWSU and national centers:

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Boundary Detection:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology:   http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries:  http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Cyclogenesis:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow I (basic):  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced):  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Lightning Meteorology II:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

Mesoscale Anal. of Conv. Wx. using GOES RSO:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

NDIC:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web.  The downloadable files can be found by going to the list of teletraining sessions at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

then selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing.  Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.

M. DeMaria participated in a COMET meeting to help set priorities for development of NPOESS training modules.

D. Hillger, as Webmaster for the U.S. Metric Association (USMA), participated in a Board of Directors meeting for USMA held in Los Angeles CA on 22 May.  One of the topics of discussion was the need for more emphasis on creating and providing training materials for all grade levels.  This type of material is often sought by both teachers and students and is vital to public acceptance of the ever-increasing number of consumer and other products being manufactured and marketed in metric sizes.  Training materials will be provided on-line as a public service at the USMA Website www.metric.org.

(Connell, Knaff)

Three VISITview exercises using GOES satellite Imagery from the CIRA and voice via Yahoo messenger were coordinated by the WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team.  There were participants from the US: CIRA and COMET in Colorado, and CIMSS in Wisconsin; as well as outside the US: Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Costa Rica, Cuba, Jamaica, Martinique, Peru, Trinidad, and Tobago.  Most all the participants had headphones and microphones and were able to view the satellite imagery and make written comments.

D. Molenar attended a DreamWeaver MX training session the week of April 30 to facilitate upcoming efforts for RAMMB and CoRP web page upgrades.

M. DeMaria attended a 1.5 day workshop the week of May 21 which was hosted by the NPOESS Integrated Program Office (IPO) at the COMET classroom in Boulder, CO. The purpose of the workshop was to provide feedback to the IPO and COMET for the development of NPOESS training material. The training will be developed by COMET and will focus on atmosphere, ocean and land processes, with an emphasis on utilization of the sensors that will be available on the NPOESS Prepatory Project (NPP).

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) held a regional training seminar for national instructors from Regions III and IV in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 17-28 May 2004. D. Lindsey (CIRA) attended the first week and provided three 50-minute lectures on satellite meteorology.

D. Hillger took a course the week of June 7 consisting of three half-day sessions on DreamWeaver software for Website development offered to faculty and staff by CSU’s Computer Training and Support Services.

D. Lindsey attended the AMS 33rd Conference on Broadcast Meteorology in New Orleans, Louisiana, 14-18 June. A 30-minute talk entitled “Using satellite imagery to improve forecasts and nowcasts” was presented to an audience consisting primarily of television meteorologists.

To Accepted, Submitted, and Reviews

Published:

Berg, R., C. Sisko, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  High resolution SST in the SHIPS model: improving operational guidance of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 356-357.

Bessho, K. M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and J. Demuth, 2004:  Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 120-121.

Black, M.L., J.P. Kossin, W.H. Schubert, C.S. Velden, J.P. Dunion, S.D. Aberson, P.G. Black, and R.M. Zehr, 2004:  Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003): A comparison of satellite, radar, and photographic observations.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Cecil, D., T.A. Jones, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 302-303.

Connell, B.H., 2004.  Volcanic ash and aerosol detection versus dust detection using GOES and MODIS imagery.  Proc. 2nd International Conference on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety. June 21-24, Alexandria, VA, USDC/NOAA/OFCM, Session 3, 21-25.

Connell, B.H., D.E. Bikos, D.T, Lindsey, J.F. Weaver, A. Mostek, 2004: National and International Training Activities at CIRA. CIRA Magazine. 7-9.

DeMaria, M., 2004:  50 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Modeling.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL.

DeMaria, M., C.W. Anderson, J.A. Knaff, and B.H. Connell, 2004:  A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 52-53.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, J.F.W. Purdom, R.M. Zehr, H. Gosden, D.L. Watson, J.A. Knaff, D.L. Lindsey, D.E. Bikos, 2004:  Advance Mesoscale Product Development for GOES-R Using  Operational and Experimental Satellite Observations.  3rd GOES Users Conference. 10-13 May, Broomfield, CO.

Dostalek, J., J. F. Weaver, and L. Phillips, 2004: Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 614-626.

Gentemann, C., M. DeMaria and F.J. Wentz, 2004:  Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Goni, G.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Trinanes, and P.G. Black, 2004:  Testing global estimates of the tropical cyclone heat potential fields to improve hurricane intensification prediction. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 7-8.

Grasso, L.D. , M. Sengupta, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, J.F. Dostalek and M. DeMaria, 2004:    Applications of Simulated GOES-R Observations for Advance Product Development for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting.  3rd GOES Users Conference. 10-13 May, Broomfield, CO.

Gross, J.M., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and C.R. Sampson, 2004:  A New Method for Determining Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecast Probabilities. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 425-426.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and L.D. Grasso, 2004: GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities at CIRA. CIRA Magazine. 10-11.

Hodanish, S., R.L. Holle, and D.T. Lindsey, 2004: A Small Updraft Producing a Fatal Lightning Flash. Wea. and
Forecasting, 19, 627-632.

Kaplan, J. and M. DeMaria, 2004: Estimating the probability of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 538-539.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  An introduction to the statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme (STIPS).  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 534-535.

Kossin, J.P., W.H. Schubert, C.S. Velden, M.L. Black, P. Black, R.M. Zehr, S.D. Aberson, and J.P. Dunion, 2004:  Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003).  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Mostek, A., J.F. Weaver, D.E. Bikos, D.T Lindsey, B.A. Zajac, S. Bachmeier, T. Whittaker, B. Motta, B. Grant, J. LaDue, and J. Ferree, 2004:  VISIT: Bringing Training to Weather Service Forecasters Using a New Distance -Learning Tool.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 823-829.

Tuleya, R., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2004:  Evaluation of rainfall forecasts from the operational GFDL hurricane model. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 176-177.

Velden, C., J. P. Kossin, T. L. Olander, D. Herndon, A. J. Wimmers, R. Wacker, R. T. Edson, J. D. Hawkins, K. F. Brueske, B.W. Kabat, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  Toward an objective satellite-based algorithm to provide real-time estimates of TC intensity using integrated multispectral (IR and MW) observations. AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL, 280-281.

Weaver, J.F., and D.T. Lindsey, 2004:  Some frequently overlooked visual severe thunderstorm characteristics observed on GOES imagery – a topic for future research. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 6, 1529-1533.

Weaver, J.F., D.T. Lindsey, D.E. Bikos, C.C. Schmidt, and E. Prins, 2003:  Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery. Wea. and Forecasting, 19, 3, 496-510.

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  Atlantic Intense Hurricanes, 1995-2003 – Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   3-7 May, Miami, FL.

Zehr, R.M., 2004:  The Objective Dvorak Technique – Historical Perspective.  Special Session on the Dvorak Technique: A 30-year test of time.  AMS 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology , May 3-7, 2004, Miami, FL.

Accepted:

Dostalek, J.F., J.F. Weaver, and L. Phillips, 2003:  Noteworthy aspects of a severe left moving thunderstorm of 25 May 1999.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., and T.J. Greenwald, 2003:  Analysis of 10.7 um brightness temperatures of a simulated thunderstorm with two-moment microphysics. Mon. Wea. Review.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2004: Applications of Simulated GOES-R Observations for Advance Product Development for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting. SPIE Annual Meeting, August 2-6, Denver, CO.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria and R.M. Zehr, 2004: Advance Mesoscale Product Development for GOES-R Using Operational and Experimental Satellite Observations. SPIE Annual Meeting, August 2-6, Denver, CO.

Knaff, J.A. , S.A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, J.L. Demuth, 2004:  A Note on the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Nolan, D., and L.D. Grasso , 2003:  Nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional perturbations to balanced, hurricane-like vortices.  Part II.  Symmetric response and nonlinear simulations.  J. of the Atmospheric Sciences.

Submitted:

Combs, C.L., M. DeMaria, W. Blier, and W. Strach, 2004: Exploring the timing of fog formation and dissipation over the San Francisco Bay area using satellite cloud climatologies. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, C.D. Barnet, J.P. Dunion, and R.T. DeMaria, 2004: Evaluation of Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings in Tropical Cyclone Environments. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2004:  Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS).  Wea. and Forecasting.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2004:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Dostalek, J.F., L.D. Grasso, M. Sengupta, M. DeMaria, 2004: Applications of synthetic GOES-R observations for mesoscale weather analysis and forecasting. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2004: Analysis of Simulated GOES-R Data and Products for Mesoscale Meteorology. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Hillger, D.W., and T.J. Schmit, 2004: Quantization Noise for GOES-R ABI Bands. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria, 2004:  An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific. Wea. and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T. and M.J. Bunkers, 2004:  Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003.  Wea. and Forecasting.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, 2004: Simulation of Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Observations for Application to Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Zehr, R.M., 2004: Satellite Products and Imagery with Hurricane Isabel. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Reviews:

Three manuscripts were reviewed for three different journals by J. Knaff (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Dynamics of the Atmosphere and Ocean, and the Journal of Climate).