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RAMM/CIRA Tropical Cyclone IR Archive: During April-May-June, 2006, nine tropical cyclones have been added to the archive (3 Southern Hemisphere, 2 North Indian, 1 NW Pacific, 2 E Pacific, and 1 Atlantic). All images have been checked for quality control. (R. Zehr)
Characteristics of Atlantic Intense Hurricanes, 1995-2005: Final changes are underway following internal review on a paper by Zehr and Knaff. Additional computations have been completed with the seven 2005 Atlantic intense hurricanes. For example, Hurricane Wilma’s intensification rate (Fig. I.1) of 97 hPa/day in terms of 24-h change of minimum sea-level pressure using Best Track data, stands out dramatically in comparison with other 1995-2004 Atlantic intense hurricanes. (R. Zehr)
Fig. I.1. Greatest 24-h decrease of minimum sea-level pressure with each of the 45 Atlantic intense hurricanes since 1995.
Tropical cyclogenesis study: A new project documenting a systematic approach to satellite applications for tropical cyclogenesis analysis, was presented at the AMS Hurricane Conference, in Monterey , CA. April 24-28, 2006. A case study of Hurricane Rita’s pre-tropical storm stages has been completed. (R. Zehr)
Development has started on a dynamic website which will display tropical cyclone products and imagery for all active global tropical cyclones and provide an integrated database for achieving this information. Products will eventually include AMSU intensity and structure estimates, satellite only tropical cyclone wind analyses, intensity forecasts. Imagery will eventually include the current 4km IR imagery as well as the most recent 1km IR and Vis from operational NOAA and NASA polar orbiting satellites. (K. Micke)
The CIRA AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and wind structure estimation algorithm (Demuth et al. 2004, 2006) has been successfully transferred to NCEP Central Operations (NCO) as a fully operational package and was run for Tropical Storm Aletta in the Eastern Pacific. The data is available on NCEP’s anonymous ftp server ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data1/nccf/com/tpc/prod/amsu/. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
Monte Carlo tropical cyclone wind probabilities approved as an operational product at NOAA/TPC. Work continues on software to verify the output from this product. The east Pacific version of a tropical cyclone rapid intensity index, developed in collaboration with HRD, was also accepted as an operational TPC product (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
The track and intensity error distributions, resulting from the official NHC forecasts and final best tracks, were updated to include the 5-year period 2001-2005. These files containing the track and intensity errors in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone basins were supplied to B. Sampson, NRL, C. Landsea, NOAA/TPC, and R. Knabb, NOAA/TPC for use in NHC and JTWC operations during the upcoming hurricane season. (J. Knaff)
A paper describing a statistical-parametric tropical cyclone wind radii prediction scheme used at the National Hurricane Center and the DOD Joint Typhoon Warning Center was revised for publication in Weather and Forecasting. See previous quarterly reports for more details on this manuscript. (J. Knaff)
The pressure vs. wind relationships of tropical cyclones have been re-evaluated using the last 15 years of tropical cyclone best track wind estimates and aircraft MSLP values to assess the relative importance of latitude, environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size. Both environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size are determined from numerical analyses and appear to have no dependency on the analysis used (NOGAPS, GFS, NCEP-Reanalysis). Findings suggest that all of these factors can be used to reduce the scatter in the current pressure wind relationships. Larger and higher latitude storms produce lower MSLP for the same maximum wind speed. Environmental pressure is additive, or in other words storms occurring in a higher pressure environment have higher MSLP. Relationships were developed to estimated the wind from quality pressure observations and to estimate the pressure given a good estimate of the maximum 10-m, 1-minute sustained wind. These relationships can be utilized in operational tropical cyclone centers throughout the world and for reanalysis of past tropical cyclone events. The paper describing this algorithm was accepted by Weather and Forecasting and is currently in press. (J. Knaff)
Work continues on a satellite only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. This work combines in a specially developed analysis (cylindrical, variational) observations from feature tracked winds, SSMI winds, QuickSCAT winds, AMSU-derived 2-d wind fields, and IR-derived winds. The key ingredient is the recent development of an IR method to predict the winds associated with the core of the tropical cyclone using two pieces of information predicted from the IR imagery (size and radius of maximum winds) and other information provided from the tropical cyclone advisories (intensity, motion, and location). The combined analyses are run in real-time while the analysis is improved. The current version uses a standard flight-level to surface wind correction over water, and decreases (turns) these winds an additional 20% (20 degrees) over land. Information from these algorithms is being supplied in real time to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for operational evaluation. Work is now concentrating on web development. (J. Knaff)
The tropical cyclone maximum intensity climatology for the western North Pacific was reanalyzed using a recently developed wind-pressure relationship. Results indicate that the routine use of the Atkinson and Holliday (1977) wind- pressure relationship has resulted in a substantial intensity bias that can explain much of the climatological intensity trends in this region (Figure I.2). This work was presented at the AMS 27th Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff)
IR Resolution with Hurricanes Study: A preliminary study was completed in collaboration with M. DeMaria, and J. Beven, Tropical Prediction Center, that used AVHRR and MODIS full resolution images as proxy GOES-R data to compare hurricane intensity estimates with respect to those from current GOES images. A sample of images representing a range of intensities and eye sizes were chosen. Both the operational Dvorak technique and the Objective Dvorak Technqiue were evaluated. The results were presented as a poster (Fig. I.3) at the GOES-R User’s Conference, Broomfield, CO, May 1-3, 2006. (R. Zehr, M. DeMaria)
Fig. I.3. Zehr, Beven, and DeMaria poster, GOES-R User’s Conference.
A collection of full resolution (temporal, spectral, and spatial) Meteosat Second Generation data is being collected over the tropical Atlantic 1 June – 1 December for future satellite applications. These are being written to DVD for future use. (J. Knaff)
An automated collection of IR imagery at 1 km, 2 km, and 4 km resolution and visible imagery at 1 km and 0.5 km (MODIS only) continues. At present NOAA Limited Area Coverage (LAC) and High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT), and NASA Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiomenter (MODIS) data are accessed and utilized. This imagery will be utilized to study the effects of increased resolution on tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithms. This data will also be provided to the GOES-R Algorithm Working Group for algorithm development. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
The AMSU day-2 products were shared with K. Bessho (MRI). He will use the data to extend his tropical cyclone genesis work back to 2001. (J. Knaff)
A statistical retrieval algorithm that creates temperature profiles from the AMSU-A antenna temperatures from NOAA-18 was provided to K. Bessho of MRI, Japan. K. Bessho is using AMSU retrievals to better detect tropical cyclone genesis and his work stems from a year-long scientific visit to CIRA in 2004. (J. Knaff)
STIPS-MI forecasts produced by D. Cecil (U. Alabama, Huntsville) are being disseminated to the JTWC. STIPS-MI was developed using the developmental data of STIPS; The Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme developed at CIRA and which runs in JTWC operations. The STIPS-MI forecast will now be available to JTWC forecasts in real-time for their use and evaluation. STIPS-MI forecasts will be shared via an html server at CIRA; the same server provides AMSU intensity fixes from CIRA and CIMSS as well as CHIPS forecasts from MIT. (J. Knaff)
The estimates of maximum one-minute sustained winds associated with tropical cyclones 1966-1987 as estimated from aircraft flight level and dropsonde measurements of MSLP were supplied to K. Emanuel (MIT) and K. Hoarau (Universite of Cergy-Pontoise Cedex, France). The estimates were derived using a recently developed wind-pressure relationship by Knaff and Zehr (accepted pending revisions in Weather and Forecasting). Results suggest that intensity of western North Pacific tropical cyclones were underestimated during this period and explain much of the upward trend of Major (>95 kt) tropical cyclones in this region (1970-2004) as shown below and reported at the recent AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (J. Knaff)
Work with the Naval Research Laboratory on the development of a Consensus (5 members)/Ensemble (5 members) (or Consemble) tropical cyclone intensity prediction system continues Forecasts for tropical cyclone intensity change are created using the Statistical Typhoon Intensity prediction scheme in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Forecasts are provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center so that they can be utilized in their forecasting activities. Results in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that the consemble significantly improves forecasts in the 48-72 hour forecast time period. In the Southern Hemisphere these forecast are the first to product skillful intensity forecasts in this region of the world. Results were presented at the AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff)
A note discussing the pitfalls of selective consensus forecasting in tropical cyclone track forecasting with personnel from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey was revised for publication in Weather and Forecasting. (J. Knaff)
A “science perspective” of issues contained in the recent Science paper by Webster et al. (2005) discussing trends in tropical cyclone intensity trends was submitted to Science. Authors include C. Landsea, B. Harper, K. Hoarau and J. Knaff. (J. Knaff)
Work continues on an experimental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index which has been developed in collaboration with Israel Jirak (Dept. of Atmos. Sci., CSU). This automated product predicts areas supportive of MCS formation and organization. Recently, GOES Sounder Lifted Index data has been incorporated into the algorithm each hour, and satellite infrared verification loops have been added to the webpage. It can be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/mcsindex/mcsindex.asp . Figure II.1 below shows a recent example of the MCS Index. (D. Lindsey)
Figure II.1 MCS Index from 00Z on 15 June 2006.
Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for January, February and March 2006. Processing is behind schedule, but should be caught up by next quarter as new hourly training progresses. (Combs)
Processing of wind regime products continues. Monthly wind regime GOES composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for January, February and March 2006 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for these months and channels. (Combs)
Another experimental product is now available on RAMSDIS online. This product uses the 3.9 µm albedo along with solar geometry information to obtain ice cloud effective radius from a series of lookup tables. These lookup tables were created by performing more than 1000 model runs with an observational operator. Smaller values of effective radius are generally associated with higher-based thunderstorms with relatively strong updrafts. In Figure II.2, note how the storms in Oklahoma have smaller effective radii than the cirrus clouds further north in Kansas. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, L. Grasso)
Figure II.2: GOES-12 ice cloud effective radius from 28 April 2006. Colors correspond to effective radii of cloud tops colder than -40ºC.
A new cloud-top image product has been coded into McIDAS and is being generated using real-time GOES imagery and displayed on RAMSDIS at CIRA. The product is the temperature difference between the GOES band-4 (10.7 μm) and band-3 (6.7 μm) images. Negative temperature differences are rare, but are found on the tops of thunderstorms, and are associated with the increase in temperature above the tropopause. The difference is likely due to water vapor absorption above the cloud tops, as was found by model simulations of the two GOES bands that are used in this product. In Figure II.3 a color table is used to indicate negative temperature differences, possibly associated with the most severe thunderstorms. This product will continue to be studied during daily satellite/weather discussions at CIRA. (D. Hillger, L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)
Figure II.3: An example of the temperature difference between the GOES infrared window band-4 (10.7 μm) and the water vapor band-3 (6.7 μm). Colors are used to emphasize negative temperature differences seen on cloud tops. Each color change represents a 1 K change in the temperature difference: red = -1 K, green = -2 K, and yellow = -3 K or more.
When the first NASA/Cloudsat data was received by the Cloudsat Data Processing Center (DPC) at Colorado State University/CIRA, the RAMM Branch was asked to help with initial comparisons to satellite imagery. Don Reinke, the Cloudsat DPC manager put together a PowerPoint presentation showing comparisons of CloudSat vertical profiles to MSG, MTSAT, and MODIS imagery. The presentation can be found at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/intranet/CloudSat-Meteosat and MTSAT comparison.ppt. See slides 5 through 7 for the input from the RAMM Branch of MTSAT data from the NOAA server, along with plotted paths of the Cloudsat data segments. One of the PowerPoint slides is reproduced below as Figure II.4. (D. Hillger)
Figure II.4: Cloudsat/MTSAT comparison for a particularly interesting segment of the Cloudsat orbit as the satellite scans across a cloud system to the east of the north island of Japan. See the PowerPoint presentation for additional Cloudsat/image comparisons.
Using a GOES-12 product which calculates the brightness temperature difference between 10.7 – 6.7 µm, it was observed that negative differences are far more common over a mesoscale convective system (MCS) than over isolated thunderstorms. The reason for this is unknown, but may be a subject for future investigation. An example is provided in Fig. II.5, and a full loop from this example can be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/wv_diff/5jun06.asp (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, L. Grasso)
Figure II.5. GOES-12 10.7 – 6.7 µm difference product from 6 June 2006 at 0631 UTC. The colors indicate regions in which this difference is negative. Most of the negative differences are occurring above a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in central Kansas.
Employing a method originally developed for use with tropical cyclones, a wind retrieval technique using vertical temperature profiles derived from radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) is being developed for the Polar Regions. With a boundary condition given by a 100-hPa height field from the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis, the temperature profiles are used in the downward integration of the hydrostatic equation to compute height as a function of pressure. A balance condition is then applied to compute the stream function, from which the u- and v-components of the non-divergent wind can be evaluated. (J. Dostalek)
As a first step, geostrophic balance was assumed in the derivation of the wind field. Fig. II.6 shows the bias and RMSE of the geostrophic wind speed derived using the AMSU technique when compared to the actual wind speed measured by radiosondes launched from various Arctic stations during a portion of December 2004. The bias and RMSE are minimized at the levels where the wind is approximately in geostrophic balance. The two areas where this occurs are in the middle troposphere and in the stratosphere. Near the surface and near the jet level, the geostrophic wind is not as good an approximation, and the bias and RMSE are increased. These two areas are also regions of the atmosphere where the retrieval of temperature by satellite is less accurate. For the free atmosphere overall, the bias is under 3 m s-1 and the RMSE is under 7 m s-1.
The next step was to solve the linear balance equation to retrieve the wind field. Fig.II.6 also shows the statistics for the comparison between the linear balance winds and the winds measured by radiosonde. The use of the linear balance results in typical improvements in the bias and RMSE of around 0.5 ms-1 over the geostrophic balance.
This quarter the nonlinear balance equation was also solved. The results are shown on Fig. II.6 as well. Interestingly, the assumption of nonlinear balance does not result in an improvement over the linear balance. The RMSE at the lowest and highest levels does show an improvement, but the bias indicates a degradation in relation to the linear balance. Although it has not been determined why the nonlinear balance does not result in an improvement, apparently curvature effects are not particularly important. (J. Dostalek)
New software was implemented this quarter for the solving of the linear and nonlinear balance equation. The multigrid software package MUDPACK (from NCAR) was used. MUDPACK utilizes multigrid methods, and is more efficient than the successive overrelaxation that was used previously. (J. Dostalek)
The balance equations come from approximations to the divergence equation, and in this application, they are solved in a rotated polar stereographic projection. In order to establish the theoretical background for this work, the divergence equation was derived starting with the equations of motion in polar stereographic coordinates.
The results of this research were submitted to Jeff Key of CIMSS for inclusion in the year 2 annual report to NASA which supports this project. (J. Dostalek)
Figure II.6. Bias (solid) and rmse (dashed) of retrieved winds as compared to winds measured from radiosonde. The black lines are for the geostrophic winds, the green lines are for the linear balance winds, and the red lines are for the nonlinear balance winds. The numbers along the vertical axis on the right-hand side are the number of comparisons for each level. The grid spacing of the analysis grid is 50 km.
The trowal (trough of warm air aloft) is a feature of midlatitude cyclones which can be responsible for considerable precipitation. A study is underway which seeks to use satellite imagery in the study of trowals. Three events have been chosen as a starting point for this study: 10 January 2006, 11 May 2006, and 23 October 1996. IDL and McIDAS programs are currently being written for use with model analysis data and North American Regional Reanalysis data. In particular, the McIDAS program will allow for the easy overlay of relevant meteorological fields onto satellite imagery. Figs. II.7 and II.8 show the trowal of 10 January 2006 in infrared and visible imagery, repectively. (J. Dostalek)
Figure II.7. GOES-12 infrared imagery of the trowal of 10 January 2006. The trowal is denoted by the black line extending from Missouri into Kansas.
Figure II.8. GOES-12 visible imagery of the trowal of 10 January 2006. The trowal is denoted by the black line extending from Missouri into Kansas.
A radiative transfer model was used to simulate GOES-R brightness temperatures in clear-sky conditions at 10.35 µm and 12.3 µm. The longwave brightness temperature difference responds to variations in temperature and moisture profiles. Figure II.9 shows two temperature and three moisture profiles, and the imbedded table shows the resulting longwave temperature difference. Note that larger differences are associated with more unstable lapse rates and larger moisture contents (both near the surface and at mid-levels). Figure II.10 shows a current example of the longwave difference from GOES-10; purple and black values over Texas represent the largest positive differences, so these areas likely have large moisture contents combined with unstable lapse rates. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger)
Figure II.9. Radiative transfer model results showing the 10.35 µm – 12.3 µm brightness temperature differences for 2 temperature and 3 moisture profiles in clear sky conditions.
Figure II.10. Example of the longwave difference product from GOES-10.
A GOES floating sector was set up over central Canada in order to monitor wildfire-induced convection and the resulting smoke plumes. This is a collaborative effort with Mike Fromm from the Naval Research Lab. (D. Lindsey)
D. Lindsey met with Dr. Andy Heymsfield (NCAR/MMM) to discuss the GOES-retrieved effective radius project. Dr. Heymsfield recommended using his cloud microphysics parcel model to study the relationship between thunderstorm environment/updraft and cloud-top effective radius. The code for the model was provided. (D. Lindsey)
During this quarter 24 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 123 teletraining signups, 373 students participated. (J. Braun and D. Bikos)
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 23, 2006. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts_c.html
Note: Numbers from the Climate Services Professional Development Series are not included in the totals above, the numbers are listed here:
New teletraining that debuted this quarter:
New asynchronous session that debuted this quarter:
The Satellite Applications to Tropical Cyclones portion of the ShyMet Intern Course was completed, by R. Zehr, with contributions from M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, J. Beven, and E. Maturi. (R. Zehr)
From April 1, 2006 through PM Monday, June 26, 2006:
75 registered NOAA/NWS SHyMet participants.
6 Non-NOAA/NWS participants (5 of the 6 are from DOD – Langley AFB)
There have been a total of 26 SHyMet teletraining sessions (including “GOES Sounder”, “GOES High Density Winds”, “Cyclogenesis”, and “Severe Weather”), through June 26, 2006.
The total number of offices participating – 139.
The overall number of teletraining individuals is 171.
20 of the registered SHyMet participants have completed the entire SHyMet Intern course.
*Total projected attendance numbers through June 29, 2006 – last day of SHyMet sessions before the end of SHyMet teletraining for the quarter and end of State of Colorado’s fiscal year: *
29 total SHyMet teletraining sessions.
142 total offices participating.
The overall number of total individuals attending teletraining – approximately 200.
24 individuals having completed the entire SHyMet Course. (J. Braun, D. Bikos, B. Connell)
GOES-12 imageryfor March 2006 through May 2006 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to study cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts. The monthly cloud frequency composites for March through May 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in following Figure III.1. (B. Connell)
Figure III.I Monthly cloud frequency composites for March through May 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.
A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for March through May 1999-2006 for Barbados is shown in Figure III.2.
Figure III.2 Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for March through May 1999-2006 for Barbados.
The web page depicting cloud frequency composites by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Central America has been updated. It now includes composites covering 1998-2005 for March through November.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/climatology/central%5Famerica/
The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua, Barbados, Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Cayman, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad, and Venezuela. The discussions were well attended with more than 25 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. During April, a couple of new records were set with 40 concurrent users logged into VISITview and 34 users logged into Yahoo Messenger. Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis. Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather. Added discussion features during April and June included imagery for the eruption of the Lascar Volcano in Chile and the Soufreire Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat. The sessions last 75-90 minutes. (Connell, Coleman)
UW/CIMSS/ASPB asked for help to confirm or deny a problem with GOES-12 band-2 (3.9 μm) hot pixels associated with range fires in Texas and Oklahoma. The problem, noticed for at least 7 pixels in one image, is that the hottest pixels appear cold when the GVAR counts reach maximum values, associated with temperatures over 342 K. (Figure IV.1) CIRA confirmed that the values for those pixels were folded over to low counts, whereas they should have been at the top end of the scaled radiances. After getting our feedback, CIMSS forwarded the details of the problem to Satellite Operations. (D. Hillger; S. Kidder)
Figure IV.1: GOES-12 band-2 (3.9 µm) image for 12 March 2006 at 2332 UTC, centered over the Texas Panhandle, showing hot spots that appear cold.
The change from GOES-10 to GOES-11 for the GOES-west operational satellite took place on 21 June, a rather seamless transition, with GOES-11 currently being re-transmitted through GOES-10, eliminating the need to move any receiving antennas. GOES-11 Imager and Sounder data are displayed on GOES-west RAMSDIS Online (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/main.html). (D. Hillger)
In addition, the first GOES-13 images were captured at CIRA on 22 June. After the first few preliminary sectored images, a full-disk visible image (Figure IV.2) was captured for 1801 UTC. The first full-disk image at 1730 UTC was collected as well, but is not currently available. Fellow collaborators at UW/CIMSS/ASPB and NESDIS in Washington DC were able to process the first image. Two GOES-13 Sounder visible-band images were also collected, but appear quite dark over land surfaces (not shown). (D. Hillger)
Figure IV.2: The second of two full-disk images from GOES-13, which were transmitted on 22 June 2006.
Upgrades (circuit reconfiguration and air conditioner installation) to the CIRA server room have been completed.
New hardware:
A 2 GB snap drive and a new high end workstation have been procured via ORA IT funds. The AWIPS D2D data server and a laptop for Dave have been purchased via CIRA funds. The new high end workstation has been configured with RH4 for John Knaff. He is in the process of migrating from his old system, which will then be configured as a mirror to the new system. The D2D server and snap drive have been installed in the CIRA server room and configuration is underway. (D. Molenar)
Configuration of the pasiphae2 mirror system is complete. All pasiphae2 /home directories and data are mirrored to pasiphae. In addition, both systems are imaged to disk on a nightly basis. A local PGI compiler has been installed on pasiphae2 to prevent disruption from CIRA server down time. (D. Molenar)
The 3 Branch spare laptop systems have been turned over to Kathy, who has created a web page for check out. (D. Molenar)
All linux RAMSDIS workstations are being backed up nightly to a separate server. (D. Molenar)
Migration of all HP-UX applications from helene is complete. The system will remain available as long as it is feasible to maintain. User directories are no longer backed up. (Molenar)
A system was procured which will act as a mini-cluster for our team. It will contain 2 AMD Dual Core Opteron which runs at 1000MHz cycle and will have 16GB of RAM. (H. Gosden)
A disk drive was replaced on one of the GOES Terra Byte systems and its array restored. (H. Gosden)
An uninterruptible Power Supply was installed in the RAMM Team’s server room. It now hosts all of our servers in protecting them from power outages. (H. Gosden)
Additional servers were installed in the RAMMB server room. One is a Snap drive server and the other a Dell Server to host the D2D software. (H. Gosden)
Publications
Refereed
Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis. J. of Applied Meteorology. 45:3, 399-415.
Hillger, D., S.Q. Kidder, 2005: A simple GOES skin temperature product. National Weather Digest, 29:4, (December), 25-31.
Nonrefereed
Connell, B.H., 2006: Preparing for GOES-R: old tools with new perspectives. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference, 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Connell, B.H., and D.W. Hillger, 2006: Preparing for GOES-R: Old tools with new perspectives, CIRA Magazine, 25, Spring, 1-3.
Cram, T., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes Using GOES and Reanalysis Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
DeMaria, M., 2006: Hurricane Intensity Estimation from GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite Eye Sounding. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
DeMaria, M., 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Improvements Using GOES and Aircraft Reconnaissance Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Fryer, M.K., and M. DeMaria, 2006: Daily weather discussions at CIRA, CIRA Magazine, 25, Spring, 4.
Grasso, L.D., and M. Sengupta, 2006: A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Synthetic GOES-R and NPP Imagery of Mesoscale Weather Events. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R ABI New Product Development: Focus on Fog and Atmospheric Dust. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Maclay, K., 2006: Tropical Cyclone Inner Core Energetics and Its Relation to Storm Structural Changes. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Knaff, J.A., and C. Sampson, 2006: Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Zehr, R.M., 2006: Analysis of High Resolution Infrared Images of Hurricanes from Polar Satellites as a Proxy for GOES-R. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Zehr, R.M., 2006: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis – Satellite Analysis. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Brightness Temperature Observations. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Refereed
Chen, S.S., J.A. Knaff, and F.D. Marks, Jr., 2006: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM. Monthly Weather Review.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2006: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Jones, T., D.J. Cecil, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Passive Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme.Weather and Forecasting.
Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, and J.F. Dostalek, 2006: GOES climatology and analysis of thunderstorms with enhanced 3.9 µm albedo. Monthly Weather Review.
Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, T.H. Vonder Haar:, 2006: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. J. Applied Meterology.
Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2006: Evaluation of GFDL and Simple Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms. Weather and Forecasting.
Refereed
Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2006: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Wind Relationships. Monthly Weather Review.
Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, C.J. McAdie, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.
Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, K.J. Mueller, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2006: Estimating Hurricane Wind Structure in the Absence of Aircraft Recconnaissance. Weather and Forecasting.
Landsea, C., J. Beven, J. Callaghan, B. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, J. Kossin, M. Mayfield, A. Mestas-Nunez, M. Turk, 2006: Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones: Can We Detect Climate Trends from Existing Tropical Cyclone Databases? Science.
Sampson, C.R, J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2006: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin, Weather and Forecasting.
| Traveler | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| M. DeMaria | Monterey, CA | 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | GIMPAP | April 23 to 28 |
| J. Knaff | Monterey, CA | 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | USWRP | April 23 to 28 |
| R. Zehr | Monterey, CA | 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | GIMPAP | April 23 to 28 |
| K. Maclay | Monterey, CA | 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | GIMPAP | April 23 to 28 |
| T. Cram | Monterey, CA | 27th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology | Hurricane Supplemental | April 23 to 28 |
| M. DeMaria | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| B. Connell | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| D. Hillger | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| L. Grasso | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| D. Molenar | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| D. Lindsey | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| M. Sengupta | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| K. Micke | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| R. Zehr | Broomfield, CO | 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference | GOES-R | May 1 to 3 |
| M. DeMaria | Boulder, CO | COMET/NPOESS Course | Base | May 4 & 5 |
| M. DeMaria | Miami, FL Washington, DC | TPC Interaction and Tropical Cyclone Planning Meeting | Research to Operations 1 | June 5 to 9 |
| C. Bower | Miami, FL | TPC Workshop | Research to Operations 2 | June 3 to 8 |
| R. Zehr | Corvallis, OR | Cooperative Institutes Directors’ Meeting | Base | June 18-21 |
Posters presented at the 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorolgy and the 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference:
Connell, B.H., 2006: Preparing for GOES-R: old tools with new perspectives. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
DeMaria, M., 2006: Hurricane Intensity Estimation from GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Suite Eye Sounding. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
DeMaria, M., 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Improvements Using GOES and Aircraft Reconnaissance Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Cram, T., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes Using GOES and Reanalysis Data. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Grasso, L.D., and M. Sengupta, 2006: A technique for computing hydrometeor effective radius in bins of a gamma distribution. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F. Dostalek, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Synthetic GOES-R and NPP Imagery of Mesoscale Weather Events. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R ABI New Product Development: Focus on Fog and Atmospheric Dust. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Maclay, K., 2006: Tropical Cyclone Inner Core Energetics and Its Relation to Storm Structural Changes. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Knaff, J.A., and C. Sampson, 2006: Reanalysis of West Pacific tropical cyclone intensity 1966-1987. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Zehr, R.M., 2006: Analysis of High Resolution Infrared Images of Hurricanes from Polar Satellites as a Proxy for GOES-R. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
Zehr, R.M., 2006: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis – Satellite Analysis. AMS 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. 24-28 April, Monterey, CA.
Zupanski, D., L.D. Grasso, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Ensemble Data Assimilation of Simulated Brightness Temperature Observations. 4th GOES-R Users’ Conference. 1-3 May, Broomfield, CO.
John Eise, the new Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) at the Cheyenne, WY NWS office visited CIRA on June 26. John met with CIRA staff to discuss potential operational applications of various CIRA products. We also discussed satellite specific training ideas when CIRA becomes an operational testing ground for pre-releases to AWIPS software upgrades. (J. Braun and D. Bikos)
César Azorín Molina, who is a researcher and PhD student at the Laboratory of Climatology at the University of Alicante, Spain, arrived at CIRA on June 1. He is investigating the sea breeze circulations along the east coast of the Iberian Peninsula and is particularly interested in the use of satellite imagery in characterizing their occurrence and persistence. He will collaborate with CIRA scientists for the next three and a half months. (B. Connell)
A system was set up for the visiting scientist Cesar Azorin and assistance was given to him to get his PAC/PID numbers in order for him to access the CSU Internet. (H. Gosden)
J. Kaplan from NOAA/OAR/HRD visited CIRA for 4 days to collaborate on a Joint Hurricane Testbed project. An improved version of the operational tropical cyclone rapid intensity index (RII) was developed using techniques similar to those utilized in the recently transitioned RAMMB tropical cyclone probability formation product. In the old version of the RII the factors believed to be important for intensity change were equally weighted in an algorithm to provide a quantitative probability estimate. In the new version, a discriminant analysis technique was used to provide an optimal weighting of the RII input. The new version of the RII will be run in parallel during the 2006 hurricane season for evaluation by National Hurricane Center forecasters. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
Four of our five hourly employees have been re-classified this quarter due to various achievements. (H. Gosden)
For the second year, D. Hillger volunteered to judge posters in the Celebrate Undergraduate Research and Creativity (CURC) Showcase on CSU’s main campus on 18 April. For details on CURC see http://www.curc.colostate.edu. The posters judged were related to computers and image processing. (D. Hillger)
D. Hillger received training in advanced Excel spreadsheet techniques in two classes offered on 13 and 15 June through CSU’s Computer Training & Support Services. The classes were titled “Using Advanced Formulas” and “How MS Excel Can Increase Your Efficiency.” (D. Hillger)
A draft of the feature article for the Federal Research Plan entitled “Hurricane Monitoring and Forecast Improvements with Satellite Data” was submitted.The article summarizes hurricane applications and research being performed by NESDIS/StAR and its cooperative institutes. The draft article was provided to NESDIS headquarters for review and consolidation with other inputs. (M. DeMaria)
Mid-year review meetings were held with all RAMMB employees. All employees are showing good progress on their elements through the first half of FY06. (M. DeMaria)