An improved version of the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) was installed on the NCEP IBM computer system for use by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu. Several improvements were implemented including optimized relationships between intensity changes and observations from GOES and satellite altimetry and a revised method for calculating the vertical wind shear and storm evolution from the NCEP global model forecasts. An updated algorithm for identifying a special class of storms called “annular hurricanes”, which tend to be more persistent that typical storms, was also implemented as part of the SHIPS model.  These improvements were developed under partial funding from the Joint Hurricane Testbed program and the NASA to NOAA research to operations program. As a test of the new version, all of the forecasts from 2004-2006 were rerun and compared with the previous operational versions from each year. The figure below shows the percent improvement in the intensity forecast error (the reduction of the error in the predicted maximum sustained surface wind) for the combined 2004-2006 sample. The new model improves the intensity forecasts in both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific by up to 8%.  (M. DeMaria and J. Knaff)

Figure 1: Improvements in the SHIPS intensity model forecasts on test cases from 2004-2006 with the version that will be run in 2007, relative to the previous operational versions of the model.  

Two tasks were completed with the operational Monte Carlo-based tropical cyclone wind probability model (MC), which is run at NCEP/TPC and JTWC.  1) The source code was revised to make better use of the error distributions and wind radii climatology for storms that cross the dateline. 2) Track and intensity error distributions associated with the official TPC and JTWC forecasts were updated to include the most recent 5-year period (i.e., 2002-2006).  Following testing at CIRA, the updated source code and error distributions were made available to C. Lauer (TPC) and C. Sampson (NRLMRY) for implementation in TPC’s and JTWC’s operational suite of products. In addition, the code was optimized to make the products available sooner.  (J. Knaff and M. DeMaria)

Tropical cyclone wind radii (i.e., radii of 34-, 50- and 64-kt winds in four geographic quadrants and the radius of maximum wind) estimated from an experimental tropical cyclone wind analysis are being provided to the National Hurricane Center.  The multi-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis automatically combines information from several satellite-based winds using a variational technique.  The fix information is being disseminated as a text file that is formatted to be compatible with the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system used at NHC and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).   Similar fixes are being evaluated in the JTWC operational setting.  Examples of these wind analyses can be found at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ (J. Knaff)

A simple GOES-based SST product has been created for the Hurricane Season.  There are two products that uses night time imagery from GOES channels 2 (3.9 μm) and 4 (11.0 μm).  The first product is a daily maximum brightness temperature (i.e., cloud cleared), the second is the running maximum calculated from seven daily products.  These are displayed on the local Tropical RAMSDIS.  The combination of these two products created high temporal and spatial SST fields that along with other environmental conditions can be useful for tropical cyclone forecasting and related discussions.  Figure 2 shows examples of these products. (J. Knaff)  Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Simple SST products created using a split window technique that uses nighttime imagery from GOES channels 2 and 4 instead of the more common channels 4 and 5.  Shown are the running maximum temperature for time periods of one (top) and seven (bottom) days.  The temperature scale is listed on the bottom of each frame and buoy-based sea surface temperatures valid at 12 UTC on 20 June are overlaid. 

An updated/extended version of the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product is now running experimentally at CIRA:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/index.asp.  The new TCFP uses the same basic algorithm and data sets (NCEP GFS analysis fields, geostationary satellite water vapor imagery, tropical cyclone best tracks) to determine the 24-hr TC formation probability within each 5° by 5° lat/lon grid box within its domain.   Changes include the westward extension of its domain to include the Central and Western N. Pacific basins, a larger training sample, and the inclusion of 850 hPa horizontal divergence. Also, a tropical-strip water vapor loop and a map that highlights regions of interest have been added to the front page. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

The operational product will continue to run at NESDIS/SSD (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/genesis.html for the Atlantic and east Pacific while the updated product will run experimentally in real-time throughout the 2007 hurricane season, during which time it will be evaluated and compared to the operational product.  We expect to transition the updated product to operations after the 2007 season, which will complete this GOES-PSDI project.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Expanded domain and satellite coverage of the updated TCFP product.

TCFP product formation probabilities 12 hrs prior (top left) and 0 hrs prior (top right) to the formation of WP01 on March 31 2007 at 12 Z, time series (bottom left) of the summed formation probabilities over subbasin WPII (bottom right).  As a reference, climatological formation probabilities in this region range from 0-0.4% for this time of year. 

Meteosat Second Generation datasets have been collected during the past two hurricane seasons.  Case studies of tropical cyclone and pre-tropical cyclone disturbances are being created in a storm relative multi-panel framework using the many channels that are common with the future GOES-R series.   Examples of 4-panel images from Hurricane Helene are shown in Figures 1-3.  (J. Knaff)   Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1.  Example showing a 4-panel storm relative image of Hurricane Helene on 18 September 2006 at 12 UTC.  Shown are the ozone channel (9.66 μm) (top left), IR window (10.8 μm) (top right), the “dirty window” (12.0 μm) (bottom left), and the CO2  channel (13.4 μm) (bottom right).

Figure 2. Same as Figure 1, except shown are water vapor channels at 6.25 μm (top left) and at 7.35 μm (top right), the 8.7 μm IR window (bottom left) and the ozone channel (bottom right).

 Figure 3. Same as Figure 1, except shown are visible channels at 0.635 μm (top left) and at 0.810 μm (top right), and near IR channelsat 1.64 μm IR window (bottom left) and at 3.92 μm channel (bottom right).

A formal evaluation of the experimental CIRA/RAMMB tropical cyclone surface wind analysis at JTWC was initiated. JTWC has begun to evaluate the wind radii produced by the CIRA/RAMMB multi-platform, satellite-only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis (CIRW).  The wind radii information is being delivered to the JTWC operational ATCF in real-time (1/2 –hr past synoptic time), and has been available via local ftp for more than a year, and more recently graphics of the analyses are located on the CIRA/RAMMB tropical cyclone web page.  Despite the high reliability of this product, it has been unclear how useful this product has been to JTWC’s operations and there has been a general lack of constructive feedback from the users.  To aid in the products development and evaluation, JTWC has formally agreed to evaluate the CIRW product and to provide answers to the following questions:

1. How does JTWC determine wind radii?
   1. Sources
   2. Techniques
2. What is the basis for real-time wind radius evaluation and determination?
3. How reliable is the CIRW product?
4. Provide documentation and evaluation of in-house techniques most used to estimate wind radii.     (J. Knaff)

Additional information about the Knaff & Zehr Tropical Cyclone (TC) wind-pressure relationship was provided to The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).  They are considering adopting the tabular form of the Knaff and Zehr (2007; KZ07) TC wind-pressure relationship (WPR) as the BOM standard operational technique.  (J. Knaff, R. Zehr)

Following changes on the NCEP computers on 2/27/2007, several changes were necessary to the software used to create AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity and structure estimates developed at CIRA.  Changes were made and AMSU fixes have running without interruption since 4/17/2007.  (J. Knaff)

The National Hurricane Center has been producing operational Monte Carlo-based tropical cyclone wind probabilities, developed by RAMMB, since 2006.   The probabilities are created in the North Atlantic, East Pacific, Central Pacific and western North Pacific tropical cyclone basins.  Under continuing Joint Hurricane Testbed funding FORTRAN 90 code to verify these forecasts and compare them with the official deterministic forecasts were developed. Verification consists of Brier Scores, Brier Skill Scores, Reliability Diagrams, Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC), and ROC Skill Scores. The code and resulting verification have been supplied to NHC.  (J. Knaff)

A tropical cyclone wind structure database was provided to the Sarasota Herald-Tribune for a new hurricane web page to depict the impacts of historical hurricanes on Florida. The National Hurricane Center “best track” database includes storm track and maximum wind information back to 1851, but does not provide storm size information. A hurricane size database developed at RAMMB for tropical cyclone satellite retrieval algorithm development was provided to the Herald-Tribune. This database includes storm size estimates from NHC advisories back to 1988 and from a climatological model for 1851 to 1987.  (M. DeMaria and J. Knaff)

The figure created by the automated ENSO CLIPER forecast process was modified to fit the new web version of the NOAA/CPC Monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.     A properly sized figure containing the forecasts was supplied to V. Silva at NOAA/CPC.  (J. Knaff)

The updated/expanded Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product was announced to members of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, National Weather Service Guam, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, NOAA’s Satellite Analysis Branch and others in the tropical cyclone community in early June.   JTWC will evaluate the TCFP over the Western N. Pacific region throughout the 2007 season and provide feedback at the close of the season.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

For the study of atmospheric rivers over the northeast Pacific, temperature and moisture profiles retrieved from polar-orbiting satellite data are used to generate wind fields.  Initially, profiles from ATOVS (Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) data were used.  A switch to C1DOE (CIRA 1-D Variational Optimal Estimator) retrievals began after some questions were raised concerning the quality of the ATOVS data, both during the programming work, as well as from discussions with other researchers.  However, C1DOE is a new dataset, and has some issues of its own.  But because it is being developed at CIRA, the difficulties can be reported to the developers, who can make the necessary changes. (J. Dostalek)

While the actual C1DOE data is being prepared for use in the atmospheric rivers project, the code which will use it is being developed and tested.  In particular, height fields from the GFS model are being used to generate geostrophic, linear, and nonlinear balance winds.  The winds from these approximations are then compared to the model winds.  Also, omega equations consistent with the geostrophic and linear balance assumptions have been coded and are currently being tested.  The omega equation associated with the nonlinear balance equation will be implemented next. (J. Dostalek)

The technique used to compute the wind field from temperature profiles derived from polar-orbiting data is not only being developed for use over the northeast Pacific, but also for use over the Arctic.  For the Arctic application, improvements to the FORTRAN code which computes the wind field were implemented, and further work was done on the IDL code which compares the derived winds with collocated radiosonde winds. (J. Dostalek)

Software previously written to rotate descending-mode (southbound) orbital imagery in McIDAS AREA file format was discovered to not be working in all circumstances.  The navigation (or map) was inverted but not correctly positioned in some cases.  The source of the problem was discovered and the software has been fixed and expanded for larger navigation blocks.  The software is being applied to both AVHRR and MODIS data on the Polar RAMSDIS at CIRA, and is seeing other uses when it is desirable to view upside-down imagery in an inverted mode without remaping the image into another projection.  (D. Hillger)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for March, April and May 2007. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for February, March and April 2007 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for February, March and April 2007.  (C. Combs)

A poster was made on the satellite climatology work entitled, The Development and Use of Regional GOES Cloud Climatologies in Weather Forecasting. This poster was presented poster at the 4th Annual NOAA/NESDIS/StAR/CoRP Symposium held at the University of Maryland. (C. Combs)

In April 2007, D. Lindsey traveled to Washington D.C. to provide a demonstration of the MCS Index to individuals at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).  This product may be particularly useful for HPC since it provides useful guidance for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF).  After the meeting, HPC put in an official request to SPSRB that the MCS Index be transitioned to NESDIS operations.  (D. Lindsey)

The Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index is running in real-time on this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/mcsindex/mcsindex.asp .  Beginning in April 2007, real-time verification is being performed and can be viewed by clicking the link on the left (see the screengrab below).  Verification stats are computed for both the analysis time and each forecast time out to 84 hours.  (D. Lindsey, I. Jirak)

Figure.  A screengrab from the MCS Index real-time page.  A new link has been added on the left side: Real-Time Verification Stats.

D. Lindsey submitted 2 abstracts to the European Conference on Severe Storms, to be held in Trieste, Italy in September 2007:  “Exploring the relationship between satellite-retrieved ice crystal size and thunderstorm intensity” and “Numerical simulations of the effects of cloud condensation nuclei on thunderstorm intensity and evolution,” both by D. Lindsey and L. Grasso.  (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)

A journal article has been submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology called “An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES,” by D. Lindsey and L. Grasso.  A second round of reviews was recently received, and work is currently underway to make some changes to the paper. This will very likely be the final set of revisions before the paper is accepted for publication.  (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)

In addition to the severe weather, lake-effect snow, and hurricane cases, synthetic GOES-R images of simulated fires are being created using RAMS model output.  Figure 1 shows an example 3.9 μm image of the idealized fires.  Although the fires are visible on the image, information about the fires has been lost due to bit depth issues.  The current GOES satellites use 10-bit data, whereas GOES-R will use 14 bits for many of its channels, including the shortwave infrared.  The extra 4 bits to be used by GOES-R will allow it to report pixel brightness temperatures up to about 400K, greater than the current GOES, which can give pixel brightness temperatures up to about 330K.  To accurately simulate GOES-R images, work has begun on implementing anticipated GOES-R calibration information into the synthetic images, which will allow the greater brightness temperature range expected from the new satellite.  (J. Dostalek)  

Figure 1.  Synthetic 3.9 μm image of idealized fires simulated by the RAMS model.

This quarter saw further development of the observational operator. Specifically, optical properties for pristine ice are obtained from ice scattering look-up tables. All other hydrometeor optical properties are calculated from Modified Anomalous Diffraction Theory (MADT).  Legendre coefficients from both methods are combined using a scattering weighting. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, and M. Sengupta)

Additional improvements to the observational operator were implemented this quarter. Some jobs require 2.5 Gbytes of ram; as a result, only half of the processors could be used since each node has two processors and only 4 Gbytes of ram. Since the node processors do not need to allocate so much memory, changes were made to pass only those variables that the nodes need. The reduced the ram requirements on the nodes from 2.5 Gbytes to a few Mbytes. (L. Grasso and A. Carheden)

Several idealized fire hotspot simulations were produced to support Elaine Prins and her coworkers. The idealized fires were placed into the 8 May 2003 severe weather simulation. Three different fire scenes were produced: Clear sky, constant fire temperatures; clear sky, temporally flickering fires; and cloudy skies with constant fire temperature. All cases used horizontally varying satellite derived surface emissivities, which was provided by Ben Ruston. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta)

Work continues on GOES-R ABI product development.  One strategy is to use simulated ABI imagery to calculate Principle Components (PC), which in turn can be analyzed to determine a suitable linear combination of band brightness temperatures for detecting the features of interest.  In the figure below, PCs 1 and 2 of simulated imagery from 8 May 2003 are displayed, where red and blue are assigned to those pixels in which the data is most parallel to the corresponding eigenvectors.  In this example, PC 1 highlights the warm ground versus the cooler cloud tops, and PC 2 shows areas with differing mid-level relative humidities.  This work is in its early stages, but it shows promise in GOES-R ABI product development. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, J. Dostalek and L. Grasso)

Figure – Principle Components (PC) 1 and 2 of the GOES-R simulated ABI channels from 8 May 2003 at 1800 UTC over central Kansas.  Red and blue pixels are those areas in which the data is most parallel to the corresponding eigenvectors.

D. Hillger participated in a WMO Workshop in Boulder CO on 5 and 6 June 2007.  Emphasis of the workshop was on RGB (Red-Green-Blue) image compositing in order to generate products from multi-spectral imagery.  Much of the emphasis from Europe was on Meteosat Second Generation RGB products, but as the NOAA representative, Hillger gave a presentation on RBG compositing for both current GOES and simulated future GOES-R ABI.  The main objective of the workshop was to develop draft standards for RGB composite imagery that would be more formally adopted at a later date.  A document is being prepared, with both generalized and specific examples of RGB compositing.  (D. Hillger)

J. Dostalek finished an informal FORTRAN 90/95 class offered by two research groups in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. (J. Dostalek)

D. Lindsey was invited to be a co-author on a paper entitled “The stratospheric impact of the Chisholm PyroCumulonimbus eruption: nadir satellite perspective,” by M. Fromm (NRL) and others.  (D. Lindsey)

During this quarter 47 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 110 teletraining signups, 269 students participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter:

• Basic Satellite Principles (instructed by Scott Lindstrom and Scott Bachmeier / CIMSS).
• Use of Ensembles in the Forecast Process (warm season version) – instructed by Bill Bua, UCAR / COMET.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 20, 2007.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

VISIT Learning Management System (LMS) Metrics from January 2005 through May 2007:

“Utilizing GOES Imagery within AWIPS to Forecast Winter Storms” – 67 registered, 47 completed.

“Cyclogenesis” – 216 registered, 107 completed.

“Extended Range Forecasting” – 166 registered, 115 completed.

“Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm” – 32 registered, 16 completed.

“Lightning Meteorology 1” – 42 registered, 25 completed.

“Lightning Meteorology 2” – 33 registered, 20 completed.

“Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather” – 99 registered, 52 completed.

“Mesoscale Convective Vortices” – 120 registered, 41 completed.

“Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return” – 33 registered, 16 completed.

“Predicting Supercell Motion” – 44 registered, 23 completed.

“QuikSCAT Winds” – 43 registered, 25 completed.

“TROWAL Identification” – 6 registered, 5 completed.

“Water Vapor Channel” – 109 registered, 50 completed.   
           
Weather Event Simulation (WES) case – A WES case is being developed by D. Bikos for the 28 March 2007 tornado outbreak that occurred in the Great Plains.  Collaboration with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO/Dodge City, KS) is ongoing to supply additional data and insight into the case.  This will include a simulation guide and be made available via the SOO/STRC (Science and Training Resource Center) web-page (as all other WES simulations are officially released to the field). (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

New Learning Management System (LMS) – On June 1, the Dept. of Commerce switched over to a new LMS (Learn.com).  All records, sessions and quizzes from the old LMS had to be copied and held until audio playback versions of these VISIT training sessions could be added to the new LMS. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Work/analysis has begun on a possible Cyclogenesis intensification project (November 24 – 29, 2005 case). (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Work/analysis has begun on severe weather cases (March 28, 29 2007 and May 23, 24 2007) to use at COMAP and in future VISIT sessions. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Work/analysis continues for the future Coastal/Terrain VISIT session.  (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

The new WES workstation is configured and the latest version of the WES (7.2) and GFE are installed.   A joint project (with Eureka FO) to port cloud climatology GFE is on hold pending completion of climatologies at Eureka.  (D. Molenar)

Hardware for a new AWIPS display system was received and configured.  The upgrade to D2D 7.2 underway.  (D. Molenar)

SHyMet Metrics through May 31, 2007: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

• 113 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered at CIRA.
• 56 of the 113 (50%) individuals registered at CIRA have completed the NOAA version of SHyMet since it began April 1, 2006. 
• 16 total Non-NOAA participants have registered at CIRA.
• 9 of the 16 (56%) individuals registered at CIRA have completed the Non-NOAA version of SHyMet since April 1, 2006.

NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual session breakdown through May 2007 (for “online” training only). 

1. Orientation:  193 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 138 completed – 71%
2. GOES Intro:  173 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 117 completed – 68%
3. GOES Channel Selection:  171 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 98 completed – 57%
4. POES:  169 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 95 completed – 56%
5. GOES Sounder:  103 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 43 completed – 42%
6. High Density Winds:  110 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 43 completed – 39%
7. Cyclogenesis:  107 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 47 completed – 44%
8. Severe Weather:  122 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 42 completed – 34%
9. Tropical Cyclones:  205 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 90 completed – 44%

SHyMet Teletraining Numbers:  (Since April 2006)
           
GOES Sounder:  53 completions
GOES High Density Winds:  48 completions
Cyclogenesis:  54 completions.
Severe Weather:  52 completions.

• New Learning Management System (LMS) – On June 1, the Dept. of Commerce switched over to a new LMS (Learn.com).  All records, sessions and quizzes from the old LMS had to be copied and held until audio playback versions of these VISIT training sessions could be added to the new LMS. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)
• The analysis/comments for SHyMet/VISIT survey are completed (with additional comments from Bernie Connell).  (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

External Interactions:

• Collaboration is ongoing with COMET and NOAA / NWS forecast offices in delivering new teletraining.
• J. Braun was a guest speaker for 3 ICPE (Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Science) classes at Boltz Jr. High School in April. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

J. Dostalek began the training of three CIRA hourly employees on the use of McIDAS.  The training will continue during the summer. (J. Dostalek)

D. Bikos and J. Braun were invited guest instructors to the COMAP symposium held at COMET.  The topic of their presentation was “Satellite Applications for Severe Weather Forecasting.”  The audience consisted primarily of NOAA / NWSFO Science Operations Officers (SOO’s).  (D. Bikos and J. Braun)

CIRA is providing input for the planning stages of another High Profile Training Event for the Americas and the Caribbean that is proposed to take place in October 2007.
B. Connell attended the World Meteorological Organization’s Virtual Laboratory Management Group Meeting held at COMET in Boulder June 7-8.  The main agenda items were a review of the HPTE that took place this past October 2006, status of the regional focus group meetings and directions for future virtual training, including the proposed event in October 2007.  (B. Connell)

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 2 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  The April session was missed.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather.  The sessions lasted 60 – minutes.  (B. Connell)

The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica.  As of this month (June) Barbados has initiated weekly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration in preparation for the Hurricane season.  CIRA is assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the hadar server listed above. (B. Connell)

GOES-12 imagery for March through May 2007 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for March though May 1997-2007 by 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in the figure below.  (B. Connell)

Monthly cloud frequency composites for March through May 1997-2007 by 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 μm imagery for March through May 1999-2007 for Barbados is shown in the figure below.  

Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 um imagery for March through May 1999-2007 for Barbados. 

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean. 

They have recently been used by Central American Countries for backup to their RAMSDIS systems as the data has been unavailable through the Costa Rica server.
In addition, we have made some temporary changes to command files for the RAMSDIS systems in Central America to ingest imagery from a UNIDATA server.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html   (B. Connell, D. Coleman)

Feedback was provided on two different calibration issues: 1) An observation of banding in the GOES-11 Imager was noticed in image products that utilized band differences.  In particular, the split-window difference product suffered from banding, or areas where the product values changed significantly for a large number of lines.  This was discovered to be due to a change in the blackbody temperature for the GOES-11 Imager and the resulting change in the calibration mode being used before instrument stabilization took place.  2) Additional feedback on GOES-13 Sounder striping has been provided for a dataset that will be analyzed by Satellite Operations.  The results will allow comparison of the methods used by different groups who are sharing results in order to determine the source of the excessive striping.  (D. Hillger, B. Connell)

Software has been written to create (McIDAS) AREA files for simulated GOES-R ABI radiances generated by model output.  The particular case of interest consists of artificial fire hot spots, to see how they will appear in future GOES imagery.  This required the use of McIDAS 2007 which includes (simulated) ABI calibration and navigation modules.  Radiances were supplied by Louis Grasso and Manajit Sengupta and output was sent to Elaine Prins and Scott Lindstrom.  These first files were mainly for testing the correct coding and delivery of the fire radiances.  One interesting aspect that needs to be investigated is how identical fires (with the same size and temperature) will appear as the expected GOES-R ABI grid samples the fires in different ways.  Also, fires will not saturate for GOES-R ABI band-7 (3.9 μm) until 400 K, compared to about 340 K for current GOES imagery.  (D. Hillger)    Click on image to enlarge.
 

Figure 1: Simulated band-7 (3.9 μm) GOES-R ABI image (2 km resolution) of artificial hot spots laid out in a rectangular grid.  Fires become generally larger from west to east and hotter from south to north.  Black pixels are fires with effective temperatures up to 330 K, the limit for the display of 1-byte GOES imagery, and close to the maximum fire temperature for current GOES.  White pixels are fires with temperatures over 330 K, those that would be saturated with current GOES imagery.  (The skew in the image is due to the area of interest being centered at 97°W and the GOES sub-satellite location at 75°W.)

Web page/lab workstation revamp design plans are completed.  The new web server is being configured, and documentation on web page development standards is complete.   Port of web page from old server is underway; once new server is online, training on research page development will be given to staff.  (D. Molenar)

Configuration of hardware to serve CIRA groundstation ingest data in McIDAS format is underway.   This will promote the migration away from Windows McIDAS and CIRA specific data processing applications to reduce human resource requirements in system maintenance/configuration/support.  (D. Molenar)

New Linux tropical workstation is ready for use; efforts are underway to port applications from 32 bit RedHat 3.0 to 64 bit RedHat 4.0.  (D. Molenar)

Power audit completed on east computer lab to determine system capacity. (D. Molenar)

Summer UPS testing/replacement is complete. (D. Molenar)

M. DeMaria provided telephone interviews to Michael Cristy from Reuters News and Sarah Moore from the Beaumont Texas Enterprise concerning the formation of subtropical storm Andrea, which was the first tropical cyclone of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Information on the difference between a subtropical and fully tropical cyclone were explained, and the implications of the formation of a tropical cyclone more than two weeks before the official start of the Atlantic season. Historically, early season storms are not that uncommon (about 20 over the past 150 years), and do not necessarily indicate that the season will be above normal. (M. DeMaria)

The Sarasota, Florida Herald-Tribune is preparing a new hurricane web page to depict the impacts of historical hurricanes on Florida. The National Hurricane Center “best track” database includes storm track and maximum wind information back to 1851, but does not provide storm size information. A hurricane size database developed at RAMMB for tropical cyclone satellite retrieval algorithm development was provided to the Herald-Tribune. This database includes storm size estimates from NHC advisories back to 1988 and from a climatological model for 1851 to 1987. The climatological model provides the first guess for the RAMMB AMSU wind structure algorithm.  (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Publications 

To Accepted and Submitted

Published: 

Refereed

Sampson, C.R., J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2007: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin, Weather and Forecasting, 22, 671-675.

Nonrefereed

Accepted: 

Refereed 

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and C. Sampson, 2007:  Evaluation of Long-Term Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts.  Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2007: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.

Sampson, C.R., J.F. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2007:  Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Weather and Forecasting.

Zehr, R.M. and J.A. Knaff, 2007:  Atlantic major hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics based on best track, aircraft, and IR images.  J. of Climate.

Nonrefereed

Connell B.H., M. DeMaria, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2007: International Activities: Weather Briefings and Training via the Internet, Fall Issue, CIRA Newsletter.

Lindsey, D.T., 2007:  Numerical simulation of the effects of CCN on thunderstorm intensity and evolution. European Conference on Severe Storms, 10-14 September, Trieste, Italy.

Lindsey D.T., 2007:  Exploring the relationship between satellite-retrieved ice crystal size and thunderstorm intensity.  European Conference on Severe Storms, 10-14 September, Trieste, Italy..

Submitted: 

Refereed

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2007: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Hillger, D.W., 2007:  GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.

Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2007:  Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes.  Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2007:  An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2007: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Monthly Weather Review.

Combs, C.L., 2007:  The development and use of regional GOES cloud

Mr. Li Bai, the Deputy Director of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Atmospheric Observation Technology Center, visited CIRA on June 11-14. His visit was part of a 4 month managerial training assignment in the U.S. arranged through NOAA and the National Weather Service. Mr. Bai has an interest in severe weather and instrumentation, and met with a number of scientists from CIRA and the Colorado State University Atmospheric Science Department. He encouraged increased collaboration between CSU/CIRA and China, perhaps through greater visibility at WMO training meetings. (M. DeMaria, R. Zehr, D. Hillger, D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell)

Dr. Jose de Jesus Williams, Dr. Andres Aluja Schunemann, and Gloria Herrera Correa from Autonomous University of Yucatan in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico and Dr. Jorge A. Hernandez from the University of Florida visited CIRA on June 15th.  The purpose of their visit was to discuss research and products related to hurricane prediction.  R. Zehr gave a presentation on the satellite products available at CIRA and their uses in monitoring tropical cyclones.  CIRA representatives also give brief presentation on tropical cyclone products developed at CIRA and the VISIT training program.   The UADY representatives expressed an interest in utilizing CIRA products and the VISIT program to educate the academic community at UADY so that it can help surrounding communities prepare for and respond to natural disasters. (R. Zehr, B. Connell, A. Schumacher)

D. Hillger participated in a WMO Workshop in Boulder CO on 5 and 6 June 2007.  Emphasis of the workshop was on RGB (Red-Green-Blue) image compositing in order to generate products from multi-spectral imagery.  Much of the emphasis from Europe was on Meteosat Second Generation RGB products, but as the NOAA representative, Hillger gave a presentation on RBG compositing for both current GOES and simulated future GOES-R ABI.  The main objective of the workshop was to develop draft standards for RGB composite imagery that would be more formally adopted at a later date.  A document is being prepared, with both generic and specific examples of RGB compositing.  (D. Hillger)

M. DeMaria’s Affiliate Faculty Appointment in the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science was extended for two more years in recognition of contributions to the Department. (M. DeMaria)

J. Knaff attended the CI directors meeting held at CIMSS.  Topics discussed included the algorithm testbed, a student exchange program, climate data records, the rate of collaboration between the different CIs and some ideas how to better get polar products, particularly those in the NPOESS Data Exploitation to users. (J. Knaff)

M. DeMaria represented NESDIS at the COMET advisory council meeting, held in Boulder, CO on June 4-6. Guidance was provided on the development of GOES training in the upcoming year. During the dinner meeting, an informal discussion was held with Dr. Richard Anthes regarding RAMMB research to utilize COSMIC soundings for tropical cyclone analysis. (M. DeMaria)

AMC Milestone for June 2007 has been submitted to StAR/NESDIS. (D. Molenar)