Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The new Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product, which has been updated and expanded to include the Central and West Pacific basins, received SPSRB approval to be declared operational on June 21, 2008.  This decision allowed for 45 days in which to complete final operational requirements.  Weekly teleconference meetings organized by Matthew Seybold (OSDPD, Camp Springs MD) have been held since then to discuss progress on final details such as data flow, web page design and documentation.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Figure 1:  Sample screen shot of new TCFP product website, Atlantic Basin web page.

Using the binary Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) datasets disseminated by NESDIS, local ingest, decoding, and display capabilities were developed.  ASCAT data are received via ftp and are decoded for use in the experimental GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product.  These datasets are further repackaged for display on the local MCIDAS and RAMSDIS systems.  An example of these winds displayed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean south of California (the Mexican coastline is shown in the upper right) is displayed in Figure 2 below.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 2.  Example of Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) ocean wind vectors valid between 15 UTC and 17 UTC on 5 June overlaying the 18 UTC GOES-W imagery.

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its affect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from an omega equation valid over the entire sphere.  The input will come from the GFS model.  The development of the software used to compute the vertical motion is underway.  In particular, the global omega equation has been derived in a Q-vector form and will be solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform. (J. Dostalek)

Near-real-time estimates of Vertical wind shear (VWS) and mass-weighted Deep-Layer Mean flow (DLM) estimates can be provided from AMSU.  The procedure utilizes the 3-d balanced wind fields estimated from the AMSU temperature retrievals, which is already an operational product.  AMSU-derived wind fields offer an independent dataset from which VWS and DLM can be calculated, and is often available before the global model analysis of such quantities.     The reliability and usefulness of AMSU-based VWS calculations was presented by R. Zehr at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.   Both the VWS and DLMs, using a 0 to 600 km area average, will be provided for all global tropical cyclones on the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page during the 2008 hurricane season.  An example of these time series plots are provided for Typhoon Fenshen is provided in Figure 3 below.   (J. Knaff, R. Zehr)

Figure 3: An example of vertical wind shear and deep layer mean wind estimates for Typhoon Fenshen (wp072008) created June 23, 2008.  The area averaged quantities shown are both calculated within 600 km of the tropical cyclone center. 

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature.  Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins.  This study revisits this topic in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins.   The timing of lifetime maximum intensity associated with recurving tropical cyclones is examined using best track datasets from the United States’ Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center, Miami during the period 1980-2006.   Results reveal that tropical cyclones are less likely to experience peak intensity within ± 12h and ±24h of recurvature than has been previously reported in the western North Pacific.  It is also shown that tropical cyclones that become most intense (i.e., intensities greater than 52 ms-1) have a greater tendency to reach peak intensity before recurvature than weaker storms save for in the South Pacific where the most intense storms have a greater probability of reaching their maximum intensity following recurvature.  The cumulative frequency diagrams of maximum intensity (first obtained) vs. the point of recurvature is shown for the western North Pacific, North Atlantic, South Indian and South Pacific tropical cyclone basins in Figure 4.   While it appears that weak tropical cyclones (i.e., peak intensities less than 33 ms-1) often reach peak intensity prior to or close to recurvature in all tropical cyclone basins as others have reported, the cumulative distributions of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature can be quite different for other intensity ranges suggesting that a universal relationship between peak intensity and time of recurvature does not exist.   This study has been accepted by the International Journal of Climatology. (J. Knaff)

Figure 4:  Cumulative frequency diagrams associated with the occurrence of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature for storms only reaching tropical storm strength (34 kt<x <65 kt), hurricane strength (64kt < x <96kt) and major hurricane strength (x>95 kt).    The time of the maximum intensity for this study was taken to be the first occurrence of peak intensity.  Recurvature is determined objectively as described in Knaff et al (2008). 

Several modifications were made to NHC’s wind probability program in preparation for the 2008 hurricane season. The underlying track and intensity distributions were updated to include the previous 5 years (2003-2007) and the treatment of the intensity for inland storms was modified to eliminate a high wind speed bias. In addition, the code was modified to supply the input for a related web-based tropical cyclone intensity probability product. This work was partially supported by the Joint Hurricane Testbed. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff )

The Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) has had several projects funded through the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) over the past few years.  The JHT sponsors projects that have the potential to lead to the transition of tropical cyclone analysis and forecast products to the operations of the NCEP National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu. RAMMB received notification from the JHT that five of the new products they were involved with during the FY05-FY07 funding cycle were accepted for operational implementation for the 2008 hurricane season. These products include the following: 1) A new algorithm for predicting the decay of tropical cyclones over land in the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS); 2) A new method for calculating the vertical shear in SHIPS; 3) A verification procedure for the new NHC wind probability program; 4) An improved algorithm for the operational Rapid Intensity Index; 5) A new method for estimating the radii of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds for landfalling storms. RAMMB personnel were the lead developers on the first three of these products. The rapid intensity index and wind radii algorithm were joint projects with the NOAA/OAR Hurricane Research Division. (M. DeMaria)

Using the simulated ABI channels derived from MSG, water vapor imagery has been collected and collocated with existing GOES-E water vapor imagery.  This enables the inter-calibration of the GOES-R with the existing GOES water vapor imagery and will allow for the use of GOES-R imagery in the existing tropical cyclone formation product.  This work will continue in the next quarter (J. Knaff, A. Schumacher)

A three-color dust product has been adapted to the local tropical RAMSDISand replaces a less esthetically pleasing dust product.  The new product is based on the EUMETSAT dust product sometime referred to as the Rosenfeld dust product.  One of the nice features of this product is that it not only detects dust (the magenta colors) but also discriminates high, mid-level and low clouds, as shown in Figure 1.  The product was adapted from previous work done at CIRA.  A description of the product and its interpretation can be found http://oiswww.eumetsat.int/~idds/html/doc/dust_interpretation.pdf (J. Knaff, D. Hillger, S. Kidder)

Figure 1.

A composite of full-disk Water Vapor (WV) images from six (6) geostationary satellites (GOES-11 @ 135°W, GOES-12 @ 75°W, MSG @ 0°E, Meteosat-7 @ 57°E, FY-2C @ 105°E, and MTSAT @ 140°E) is being made every 3 hours, which is the normal interval for GOES full-disk imagery.  An example of the composite image is seen below in Figure 2.  The animations may be useful for tropical weather discussions which will commence in August for the Atlantic hurricane season.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 2: An example of  a worldwide composite of WV imagery from six (6) geostationary satellites (GOES-11 @ 135°W, GOES-12 @ 75°W, MSG @ 0°E, Meteosat-7 @ 57°E, FY-2C @ 105°E, and MTSAT @ 140°E).

A visit was made to OSDPD in Camp Springs, MD from May19-21 2008.  Met with Matthew Seybold, Gregg Galina, and other various OSDPD members of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product team to help with the final stages of preparing the TCFP product for operations (A. Schumacher)

The tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship described in Knaff and Zehr (2007) has been modified for use in the Australian region.  The modifications accommodate the use of the routine operational measures for environmental pressure and tropical cyclone size.  In addition, because the unique size and low latitude of tropical cyclones in North Australia, modifications were made to the methodology for storms equatorward of 18 degrees latitude.  This work has been a collaborative effort between J. Knaff and J. Courtney (BOM).  The resulting modified Knaff & Zehr wind-pressure relationship will be applied in applications at all three Australian tropical cyclone warning Centres (i.e. Perth, Darwin, Brisbane) as well as affiliated warning centres during the 2009 tropical cyclone season. (J. Knaff)

A critical design review and sizing requirements for the GOES-Based Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Product (MTC-SWA) was prepared  by J. Knaff and M. Seybold (IPB) for presentation on this project which is transitioning from research to operations at NSOF. (J. Knaff)

Statistical AMSU-based temperature retrievals for the Aqua and Met-Op AMSU-A instruments were shared with K. Bessho of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) in Tokyo.  The coefficients for these algorithms were provided by Z. Cheng (NESDIS) for use in a PSDI-sponsored effort to start using Aqua and Met-Op to make tropical cyclone intensity and structure estimates.  MRI is testing an AMSU-based algorithm for tropical cyclone formation diagnosis and these algorithms will allow the use of all available AMSU-A instruments. (J. Knaff)

Several RAMMB staff met with Dr. Eric Maloney from the CSU Atmospheric Science Department to discuss a possible proposal to NASA to study tropical cyclone genesis. CIRA’s contribution would be to test ideas from the research study to see if the can improve the NESDIS operational tropical cyclone formation probability product, and to use COSMIC data to provide confirmation of a Kelvin wave signature identified in NCEP reanalysis fields. The Kelvin wave analysis may provide a method to increase the lead time of the formation probability product. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, A. Schumacher)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for January and February 2008. Processing has been slow this quarter, but is expected to catch up next quarter. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for January 2008 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for January 2008. (C. Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive have been completed for Jun-Sep 2006.  Data are being pulled from the CIRA archive, which slows the processing down with additional steps. (C. Combs)

After corresponding via email with Becca Mazur and Mel Nordquist from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service office, a way to determine the depth of the marine stratus layer from their GIS system is still being worked out. (C. Combs)

Work to incorporate the wind regime cloud climatologies into the Cheyenne’s National Weather Service (NWS) office forecast is progressing.  The cloud climatologies are now scheduled to be part of the satellite ‘proving ground’.  (C. Combs)

MSG data have been successfuly read and a region over Europe has been sectored. Currently searching for test cases in the CIRA archive.   (C. Combs)

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) produces retrievals of temperature and water vapor pressure (among other variables) over the entire earth at modest horizontal resolution, but high vertical resolution using radio occultation of signals from GPS satellites.  The accompanying Figure 1 shows the availability of retrievals with pressure for 20 December 2006.  On the x axis is the percent of possible retrievals, and the y axis is the pressure.  There were 1345 occultations (possible retrievals) that day.  The plot shows that between 700 mb and 20 mb, the retrieval success is greater than 90%.  These results are only for one day; however, they are in agreement with the more general results shown in the COSMIC article in the March 2008 issue of BAMS.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  Availability of COSMIC retrievals as a percent of occultations for pressure levels from 1000 mb to 10 mb for 20 December 2006.

The COSMIC satellites, along with the GPS satellite constellation, generate ~1700 vertical profiles per day of pressure, temperature, and water vapor over the Earth using radio occultation.  The following Figure 2 and 3 show the temperature field at 500 mb for 20 December 2006 from the COSMIC soundings, as well as the daily composite 500 mb temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.  Data from the COSMIC soundings will eventually be used to create maps of potential vorticity, which will be combined with geostationary data to monitor upper-tropospheric structure, such as tropopause folds. 

Figure 2.  Temperature at 500 mb from 20 December 2006 derived from COSMIC/GPS radio occultation.

Figure 3.  Temperature at 500 mb from 20 December 2006 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.

Work is being done on creating a Dvorak-like technique for estimating the central surface pressure of midlatitude cyclones over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  A cyclone which occurred on 23-26 December 2006 is being processed for use in a complex empirical orthogonal function program.  This is the first step towards defining the typical cloud patterns in a midlatitude cyclone which will be compared to the central surface pressure to see if a relationship exists. (J. Dostalek)

The relationship between cloud morphology as seen in GOES 10.7 μm imagery and snowfall patterns over the central United States is being investigated.  So far eleven cases have been selected, the data for them obtained, and analysis begun.  The issue which arose concerning problems with reading the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) files in McIDAS has been resolved.  (J. Dostalek)

In a multi-agency effort investigating the use of satellites to provide wind information over the Polar regions, the RAMMB contribution is to use temperature profiles derived from AMSU-A radiances, along with the assumption of hydrostatic and dynamic balance (geostrophic, linear, and nonlinear), to estimate the wind field.  In an attempt to improve the accuracy of these wind retrievals, the addition of an estimate of the irrotational wind is being implemented.  Development of code which will solve the linear balance omega equation is continuing.  Once omega is calculated, the velocity potential χ can be computed from .  From there the irrotational component of the wind is found from .   (J. Dostalek)

GOES-10 captured the eruption of Chaiten Volcano in southern Chile using GOES-10 imagery from 6 May 2008 (Figure 4).  Top-left: morning visible image of ash being lofted high into the troposphere, as evidenced by the long shadow off to the west.  Top-right: afternoon infrared image showing the remains of the morning ash cloud being advected away to the east.  Bottom-left: 10.7-12.0 µm image; dark yellow colors indicate more negative values, a sign of volcanic ash.  Bottom-right: ice effective radius retrieval showing that the entire ash plume has the smallest retrievable effective radius values.  (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, B. Connell)

Figure 4: GOES-10 view of the Chaiten Volcano eruption in southern Chile.  Top-left: visible image over the volcano at 1258 UTC on 6 May 2008; top-right: infrared image of the plume northeast of the volcano at 1815 UTC on 6 May 2008; bottom left: longwave difference at the same time as the IR image ,with more negative values colored darker yellow; bottom-right: ice effective radius retrieval of the plume.

With the help of Dr. Stan Benjamin (ESRL), the newest version of the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 13-km Model is being collected in real-time so that its output can be compared to raobs at the end of the summer.  In addition, GOES Sounder data is being collected.  The goal is to use the sounder and surface data to improve short-term (1-hour) forecasts for low-level water vapor. An abstract has been submitted to the 2008 Severe Local Storms Conference on this topic.  (D. Lindsey)

Preliminary work has begun to transfer the GOES MCS Index to operations.  In addition, an updated version (Li et al. 2008) of the GOES Sounder Lifted Index Derived Product Imagery is being collected from CIMSS so that comparisons can be made with the older version. (D. Lindsey)

Last quarter, we produced synthetic GOES-R ABI and GOES-9 imagery for fire hotspots over California. Two separate days were produced; an offshore and onshore event. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, and D. Hillger)

We attended the annual AWG meeting in Madison Wisconsin. While at the meeting, we met with Jay Hoffman and Chris Schmidt of CIMSS to discuss our AWG fire work. (L. Grasso and M. Sengupta)

Improvements to the observational operator for GOES-R channels were implemented. Brightness temperatures at 3.9 µm are too large overall. We included new methods to reduce this warm bias. In addition, microphysical properties of RAMS were changed to improve the sizes of ice particles in thunderstorm anvils. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)

Work on the“Kyrill” continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding location. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. A new version of OPTRAN code will allow us to produced synthetic Meteosat-8 imagery for both models. (L. Grasso, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, I. Jankov, M. Sengupta, and R. Brummer)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. (L. Grasso, I. Jankov, and S. Albers)

Production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery for hurricane Wilma is now complete. All data was moved onto a hard drive and was mailed to the AWG group in DC. When the drive returned to CIRA, it was subsequently mailed to Bjorn Lambrigtsen at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, and A. Carheden)

Images of simulated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data are now available online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/simulated_abi/.  The 10 infrared ABI bands are being created in real-time from the 8 infrared bands on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), with each ABI band a result of regression on up to 4 MSG bands.  Spatial and temporal resolutions are those of the original MSG data, as no remapping or resizing was done.  A rotating archive of these images will be available online in the future.  (D. Hillger, J. Knaff, K. Micke)

Based on the work of Steve Miller, a Look-Up-Table can be used to generate Green-band visible reflectances from reflectances in the Red, Near-IR, and Blue bands.  Figure 1 shows an example of three-color RGB (Red, Green, and Blue) images created from the true Green band (top) and from a false-Green band (bottom) generated from MODIS imagery.  Since MODIS has a true Green band, a false Green band is not needed, but this allows a comparison to be made with truth.  The ability to generate a false-Green band will be useful for GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), which will contain both Red and Blue visible bands, but not the Green band.  (D. Hillger, S. Miller)

Figure 1: An example of three-color (RGB) images generated from MODIS data, comparing a true RGB image (top) with a RGB image (bottom) generated using a false-Green band.

As a follow-on to for this project, Figure 2 shows an example of three-color RGB (Red, Green, and Blue) images created from the true Green band (top) and from a false-Green band (bottom) generated from MODIS images in the Red, Near-IR, and Blue bands.  This second more-colorful example was more challenging in that the Look-Up-Table (LUT) required iterations in order to find appropriate Green values when direct LUT substitutions were not possible.  The ability to generate a false-Green band will be useful for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI), which will contain both Red and Blue visible bands, but not a Green band that would allow direct three-color imagery from ABI.  (D. Hillger, S. Miller)

Figure 2: An example of three-color (RGB) images generated from MODIS data, comparing a true RGB image (top) with a RGB image (bottom) generated using a false-Green band. 

Several RAMMB and CIRA staff visited the Cheyenne WFO for initial coordination of the satellite proving ground project. The RAMMB/CIRA group met with Melissa Goering, the Cheyenne Science and Operations Officer, and several other forecasters and support staff members.  An office tour was provided as well as a demonstration of the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) to give an idea of how various products and tools are used in operations. An initial set of experimental satellite products were selected for demonstration at their office and for testing of the dissemination procedures from CIRA. These experimental products should be available in the Cheyenne WFO within the next few weeks. (M. DeMaria, D. Molenar, S. Miller, R. Brummer, E. Szoke)

D. Hillger was part of a Group Achievement Award presented to the GOES-N Series Team by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).  The award was recognition “for providing the next generation of advanced weather satellites, a service essential to the Nation”.  Hillger coordinated the GOES-13 Science Test, which occurred at the end of Post Launch Testing for GOES-13 in December 2006, and was assisted by many other scientists who analyzed the data from GOES-13, whose efforts were complied into NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 125, available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/ (D. Hillger)

A McIDAS program to generate three-color AREA files from three input bands has been sent to Doris Hood at NASA’s Johnson Spaceflight group in Houston.  The program allows RGB (Red-Green-Blue) loops to be created from AREA files, something not possible using the standard McIDAS “combine” command, which creates JPG images instead of AREA files.  (D. Hillger)

D. Hillger was in El Segundo CA on 30 May 2008 for other business and was given a tour of the Boeing facility where both GOES-O and GOES-P are in clean-room storage awaiting their eventual shipment and launch.  The Boeing tour was given by Joe LeBlanc, a NASA contractor.  Hillger coordinated the GOES-13 Science Test and hopes to conduct the Science Tests for GOES-O and P as well.  The other business was a U.S. Metric Association (USMA) Board of Directors meeting held in Los Angeles.  Hillger is Webmaster for the USMA (www.metric.org), whose goal is to aid the conversion of the U.S. to the metric system of measurement. (D. Hillger)

A field campaign began on June 26 in Canada to study PyroCB’s.  In support of this, GOES floaters have been set up so that active fires can be monitored.  In addition, a fire detection algorithm has been created for areas of central and northern Canada.  This work is in collaboration with Dr. Mike Fromm (NRL).  (D. Lindsey)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

29 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 52 teletraining signups, 103 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio playback modules:

Registrations for 2nd Quarter 2008:  81
           
Completions for 2nd Quarter 2008:  34

LMS totals from January 2005 through June 24 2008:

Registrations for VISIT Courses:  1707

Completions: 818

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New teletraining sessions that debuted this quarter:

• “QuikSCAT Winds” by Ross Vantil (FDTB).   
• “An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC” by Chris Landsea and Jaime Rhome (NHC), M. DeMaria (NESDIS) and A. Schumacher (CIRA).

Ongoing development of new VISIT/SHyMet teletraining sessions:

• A new VISIT teletraining session titled “Utility of GOES Satellite Imagery in Forecasting / Nowcasting Severe Weather” by D. Bikos is now in the peer-review stage.  A “beta-test” (i.e. peer-review) of the teletraining session was conducted on June 18 and was well received. The training will be accompanied by a post-session WES simulation exercise.  The Weather Event Simulation (WES) case is currently under peer-review. 
• Continuing research and gathering/producing material concerned with “The Dryline” and associated training session for the VISIT program (J. Braun).
• Continuing research and gathering/producing material concerned with “Intro to Aviation Hazards/Weather” and associated training session for the SHyMet program (J. Braun).

Learning Management System (LMS):

• The VISIT sub-learn center has been populated with VISIT teletraining sessions for May, June and July.  Enrollments and certificates of completion have been setup as well.  Once we are able to add users to the enrollments, the LMS will be able to register students for teletraining and keep track of student records.  We can also go back to previous teletraining to May and add in the users that attended so they will be kept track of in the LMS.  There are future plans for the LMS to integrate “historical datasets” (such as the records that VISIT has kept track of since 2000 on all teletraining).

Research:

• High Plains Conference – May 22, 2008 tornado outbreak in Wyoming and Colorado.  D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWS Dodge City, KS) in a study focused on the tornado event that affected Wyoming and Colorado, with an emphasis on Wyoming.  Research results will be presented at the AMS/NWA High Plains conference in September.
• Severe Local Storms conference – May 22, 2008 tornado outbreak in Wyoming and Colorado.  D. Lindsey (NESDIS) is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in a study focused on a satellite perspective on the May 22, 2008 tornado that affected Windsor, CO.  Title of the abstract is “An Analysis of the 22 May 2008 Windsor, Colorado, Tornado from a Satellite Perspective.”
• J. Dostalek is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in ongoing research regarding analysis of water vapor imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.

Outreach: 

• April 15, 17, and 24, 2008 – Rocky Mountain High School – Physics Class to discuss meteorology. (J. Braun)
• June 26, 2008 – Presentation to CIRA Admin group – the Windsor Tornado, May 22, 2008.  (J. Braun)

VISIT and SHyMet Training:

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 24, 2008.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:     http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through June 27, 2008: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

156 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (12 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).
 
22 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (0 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through June 27, 2008 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for SHyMet Classes – 1984

Total Registered 3rd Quarter 2008 – 158

Total Completed SHyMet Course this Quarter – 3 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class (SHyMet Course) Metrics – Numbers Registered:

1. Orientation:  275 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 17 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  249 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 14 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  253 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
4. POES…:  232 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 15 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  173 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 16 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  172 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 15 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  175 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  198 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 25 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  257 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 16 this quarter.

SHyMet Teletraining Numbers:  (Since April 2006)
           
GOES Sounder…:  53 completions
GOES High Density Winds.:  48 completions
Cyclogenesis:  54 completions.
Severe Weather:  52 completions.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly teleconference meetings as a subject matter expert. (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Evelyn Quirós from the National Meteorological Service (IMN) in Costa Rica visited CIRA on May 16 and 19.  Evelyn has been involved in the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities and in other training activities in Central America.  We discussed coordinated training activities including installation of VISITview server and future training opportunities, as well as research directed at satellite climatologies.  Evelyn returned to Costa Rica and installed the VISITview software on the server.  Interaction continues to assist them in serving products for live briefings via the Internet.  (B. Connell)

The production of the rainfall estimation from satellite imagery was recently interrupted in Costa Rica due to changes in format of one of the inputs from a model.  The hydroestimator program resides on an older system which does not support newer software necessary to retrieve the desired model input.  We are assisting the Meteorological Service in Costa Rica in finding alternatives to obtaining the necessary model input.  In the mean time, imagery over Central America produced by the Rainfall Estimation group at NESDIS/STAR are being provided to Costa Rica via a server at CIRA.  (B. Connell)

CIRA is providing input to the development of the agenda for the WMO sponsored Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RA III and RA IV.   The training will take place in Argentina September 22- October 3, 2008.  CIRA will contribute to lectures focused on VISITview training and other satellite applications.  (B. Connell)

Monthly International Weather BriefingsThe WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for April, May, and June 2008) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay,  Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather.  Discussion topics included precursor signals for a transition to El Niño conditions, trends of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, precipitation trends over South America, presentation on the microwave Total Precipitable Water product, and eruption of the Chaiten Volcano in Chile.  (B. Connell)

The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica.  During the dry season months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the hadar server listed above.  (B. Connell)

New material has been added to the Regional Meteorological Training Center of Excellence (RMTCoE) web page.  See: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/Sharing of Imagery and Products

GOES-12 imageryfor March through May 2008 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers of Excellence (RMTCoEs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for March through May 1997-2008 by 10.7 7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1). 

Figure 1.  Monthly cloud frequency composites for March, April, and May 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 7 µm  imagery for March, April, and May 1999-2008 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 7 µm  imagery for March, April, and May 1999-2008 for Barbados.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.  
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html (B. Connell)

Several RAMMB satellite research products have been ported to the RAMMB experimental AWIPS workstation in support of Proving Ground activities.   The products are being routinely created on the AWIPS workstation, in preparation for test dissemination to beta WFO sites.  (D. Molenar)

D. Molenar continues participation as the RAMMB focal point in the STAR IT Advisory Committee, Data Management, Configuration Management, and Standards working groups, as well as the McIDAS-V Advisory Committee.  (D. Molenar)

D. Molenar participated as reviewer for an HPCC proposal.  (D. Molenar)

Hiro Gosden modified GUI menu on the AWIPS system and added customized CIRA menu.  The CIRA menu is used to host various products developed at CIRA/RAMB and allows users to access those data that has been converted to be used with the AWIPS systems. (H. Gosden)

A patch was installed in McIDAS software in order to read Grib data that contained NARR data.  A project that J. Dostalek and D. Van Cleave are involved requires use of the Grib/NARR data. (H. Gosden)

A patch to remedy Daylight Standard Time offset was installed in Windows systems with McIDAS software.  (H. Gosden)

Published:

• Refereed

Fromm, M., O. Torres, D. Diner, D.T. Lindsey, B. Vant Hull, R. Servranckx, E. P. Shettle, and Z. Li, 2008: Stratospheric impact of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus eruption: 1. Earth-viewing satellite perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08202, doi:10.1029/2007JD009153.http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/jd0808/2007JD009153/

Hillger, D.W., 2008:  GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology-Atmospheres. 25:6, 853-872.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2008:  An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.  47, 1222-1231.

Sampson, C.R., J.L. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Experiments with a Simple Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus. Weather and Forecasting, 23, 304–312.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Indication of water vapor transport into the lower stratosphere above midlatitude convective storms: Meteosat Second Generation satellite observations and radiative transfer model simulations. Atmospheric Research. 89/1-2, 170-180, DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.11.031.

• Nonrefereed

DeMaria, M., 2008: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity evolution.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

DeMaria, M., J. Hawkins, J. Dunion, and D. Smith, 2008:  Tropical cyclone itensity forecasting using a satellite-based total precipitable water product.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2008:  A revised rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Knaff, J.A., 2008:  Rapid tropical cyclone transitions to major hurricane intensity: Structural evolution of infrared imagery.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Maclay, K., 2008:  Case study of hurricane Wilma’s wind structure evolution using HWRF. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Mainelli, M., R.D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2008: Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities and their relationships with coastal watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Majumdar, S., J. J. Cione, E. Uhlhorn, G. Cascella, S. D. Aberson, R. Atlas, J. L. Beven, D. P. Brown, J. P. Dunion, C. Fogarty, R. Hart, D. C. Herndon, J.A. Knaff, C. W. Landsea, F. D. Marks, and C. Velden, 2008: Analysis of the inner-core characteristics of Noel (2007) during its extratropical transition.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas, 2008:  A simple parameterization of sea surface cooling beneath a hurricane inner core.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Zehr, R.M., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Tropical cyclone environmental vertical wind shear analysis using a microwave sounder.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Zupanski D., M. Zupanski, R. Brummer and M. DeMaria, 2008: Data assimilation: Extracting maximum information from the GOES-R data. CIRA Spring 2008 Newsletter.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

DeMaria, M., 2008:  A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Knaff, J.A., 2008:  Revisiting the Maximum Intensity of Recurving Tropical Cyclones. International Journal of Climatology.

Knaff, J.A., R.M. Zehr, 2008:  Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships. Weather and Forecasting.

Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2008:  Tropical Cyclone Size Evolution. Monthly Weather Review.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2008:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2008: The GOES-13 Science Test. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, J.A., Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting.

Zupanski, M., D. Zupanski, S. J. Fletcher, M. DeMaria, and R. Dumais, 2008: Ensemble data assimilation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: The Hurricane Katrina case. J. Geophys. Res.

Zupanski D., 2008: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book titled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor, (submitted).

Zupanski M., 2008: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book titled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor, (submitted).

• Nonrefereed    

Presentations:

Connell, B.H., 2008:  GOES and the characteristics of its channels. Remote Sensing class at Metropolitan State College, Denver, CO, 24 April. 

Connell, B.H., 2008:  International Training Collaborations at CIRA. Annual NPOESS and GOES-R training workshops, 12-15 May, Boulder, CO.

DeMaria, M., 2008:  How CIRA GOES-R Risk Reduction activities can be used for training.  Annual NPOESS and GOES-R training workshops, 12-15 May, Boulder, CO.

D. Hillger volunteered to judge posters for the 2008 Celebrate Undergraduate Research and Creativity (CURC) Poster Session on 15 April 2008 at Colorado State University.  The posters he judged were those in the area of computer applications to science.

D. Hillger volunteered at a year-end school activity at Windsor Middle School (for grades 3, 4, and 5) on 20 May 2008.  After learning about the yearly Metric Carnival at the school, and as an active member and Webmaster for the U.S. Metric Association (USMA, www.metric.org), Hillger contacted the teacher in charge, Cami Weichel, and provided numerous Carnival prizes (20 cm rulers and Go Metric refrigerator magnets) to be awarded to those who guessed the most correct answers in the various metric-estimation events.  The gifts were donated by USMA.

L. Grasso visited a local elementary school and talked to a second grade class about environmental satellites. 

B. Connell gave a presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver on April 24.  Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery.

Presented “A simple parameterization of sea surface cooling beneath a hurricane inner core” at the AMS Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference, April 28 – May 2, Orlando, FL. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

Presented a request to declare the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product Central and West Pacific sectors operational at the June 21, 2008 SPSRB meeting at the NOAA World Weather Bldg. in Camp Springs, MD.  This request was approved by the SPSRB. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

D. Lindsey visited the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma May 19-23, participating in their annual Spring Experiment.  This experiment is part of NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed, and is designed to evaluate in detail a number of short-term convective weather nowcasting/forecasting tools which haven’t yet been transitioned to operations.  This is the ideal venue to test future experimental satellite products.  Additionally, D. Lindsey worked with Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld, who was also visiting the SPC, on his effective radius profile algorithm.  Finally, discussions were held with Joe Schaefer, SPC Director, on the plans for the Satellite Proving Ground activities. 

Reviews:

A manuscript on a cloud classification technique has been given both a first and second review and returned to the editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres.  (D. Hillger)

Internal Review Stage:  

A paper entitled “Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms” was written and is in the internal review stage. This manuscript will be sent to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria)

Greg Mandt and Jim Gurka from the GPO visited CIRA on the afternoon of June 12.  The methods for tracking the progress of the GOES-R Risk Reduction and newly formed Satellite Proving Ground projects were discussed. It was generally agreed that these programs do not fit well into the Earned Value Management (EVM) system, so that simpler methods may be developed in the next several weeks. They were also provided with a tour of CIRA, the Atmospheric Science Department and the CloudSat processing facility. A briefing was also given on the status of the Proving Ground project. Greg emphasized that the activities of the Risk Reduction program, Algorithm Working Group and Proving Ground need to be well coordinated so that there is mutually beneficial interaction.

Zoltan Toth from NCEP/EMC visited CIRA on June 11 and met with several RAMMB members to discuss possibilities for interaction. Several areas were identified including the use of the new RAMMB tropical cyclone surface wind analysis system to validate the NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) and for the improvement of downscaling techniques near tropical cyclones, the use of global model ensembles and vortex trackers for improvement of the NHC wind probability products and the NESDIS tropical cyclone formation probability product, and the use of ensembles for now-casting and short-term forecasting of severe weather.

Evelyn Quirós from the National Meteorological Service (IMN) in Costa Rica visited CIRA on May 16 and 19.  Evelyn has been involved in the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities and in other training activities in Central America.  Coordinated training activities were discussed, including installation of VISITview server and future training opportunities, as well as research directed at satellite climatologies. 

T. Renkevens, currently from the GOES-R program and soon to be back with OSDPD, made a short visit to CIRA on May 14 following the satellite proving ground meeting in Boulder. D. Molenar gave a demonstration of some of the CIRA proving ground products on AWIPS, and M. DeMaria provided an informal tour and discussed possible interactions between OSDPD and StAR.

Several RAMMB staff met with Dr. Eric Maloney from the CSU Atmospheric Science Department of Oregon State University on May 6 to discuss a possible proposal to NASA to study tropical cyclone genesis. CIRA’s contribution would be to test ideas from the research study to see if the can improve the NESDIS operational tropical cyclone formation probability product, and to use COSMIC data to provide confirmation of a Kelvin wave signature identified in NCEP reanalysis fields. The Kelvin wave analysis may provide a method to increase the lead time of the formation probability product.

Steve Goodman, the StAR deputy director, visited CIRA and RAMMB on April 1-2, 2008. He held a number of individual meetings with CIRA and RAMMB scientists and a group meeting with all of RAMM Branch. He answered questions on concerns of the group, and gave research suggestions, especially with regard to lightning studies.

The office space in the Atmospheric Science Annex building was vacated by Hiro Gosden, Dave Watson, and Kevin Micke due to remodeling of the basement offices, which would become the new computer server room.  Hiro Gosden and Dave Watson moved into the CIRA building and Kevin Micke moved into an office in the ACRC building.  (H. Gosden)
 
Molly McClurg, a new student hourly, was hired to take over Kashia Jekel’s work.  K. Jekel found a job more suitable for her field of study.  (H. Gosden)

A new Mac Air Laptop was procured for Dusanka Zupanski for her work involving data-modeling in the GOES-R project.  (H. Gosden)

D. Lindsey had a successful PhD Defense, and will graduate at the end of summer semester.  He has been enrolled in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University under the guidance of Dr. Richard Johnson.  (D. Lindsey)

Hiro Gosden attended web-based training for Java programming that included covering methodologies used in the new AWIPS build. (H. Gosden)