Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Initial work is underway in developing a product that incorporates satellite data and model wind information to forecast tropical cyclone recurvature.  The satellite data is based on a technique by Dvorak (1995) which identifies the distance between the tropical cyclone center and a curved moisture boundary as seen in the GOES water vapor imagery.  An example illustrating this technique is depicted in Figure 1.  The contours are the gradient of brightness temperatures within a specified range from the water vapor imagery, while the yellow line illustrates the distance between the gradient associated with the curved moisture boundary and the storm center just before recurvature took place.  The model wind information is based on a technique by Hodanish and Gray (1993) which considers the upper-level zonal winds at a distance and direction relative to the tropical cyclone center.  Figure 2 illustrates this technique which highlights increasing values of zonal winds at upper levels just before recurvature. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Fig. 1:  Tropical cyclone Fabian at 17:45 UTC 5 September 2003 just prior to recurvature.  The contours are the gradient of a specified range of brightness temperatures from the water vapor imagery, while the yellow line shows the distance between the gradient associated with the curved moisture boundary and the cyclone center.

Fig. 2.  Tropical cyclone Igor example.  Image is the GFS 200-500 mb layer average u-component of the wind at 1200 UTC 19 September 2010 (top) and 6 hours later at 1800 UTC (bottom).  Blue corresponds to negative values of u, while red values are positive with increasing magnitude in darker shades.  Yellow line denotes distance between cyclone center and the distance when recurvature typically occurs based on Hodanish (1993).
Aircraft-Satellite-based Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis Automated:  An analysis system that makes use of aircraft reconnaissance data (flight-level and SFMR surface winds) and the multi-platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis (MTCSWA) beyond 150 km was developed for a new JHT project.  This MTCSWA+Aircraft data combination allows for an analysis that extends beyond the radius of typical aircraft reconnaissance (about 180 km).  In this quarter scripts to automate the creation of these analyses and related products, including NAWIPS grid files ,were developed and ready for real-time product generation by 1 July.   Examples of the motion relative reconnaissance data and resulting analyses of Tropical Storm Debby on 24 June at 18 UTC are shown below.     (J. Knaff)

Upper ocean’s response to TC passage:  A manuscript entitled “upper oceanic energy response to tropical cyclone passage” by J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, C. Sampson (NRLMRY), J. Peak (NRLMRY), J. Cummings (NRLMRY) and W. Schubert (CSU) was revised and resubmitted to the Journal of Climate.  The paper describes composite changes in upper ocean energy metrics based on a number of tropical cyclone characteristics (intensity, kinetic energy, latitude, translation speed… etc.).    (J. Knaff)

An experimental version of the new 48-hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product has been completed.  This new product uses a similar methodology as the current operational NESDIS TCFP, but uses GFS forecast fields and forecast TC positions to extend the current 24-hr forecast period out to 48 hours and beyond, which is more consistent with the needs of the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

Figure.  Example of the experimental 48-hr Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product.

The Monte Carlo wind speed probability algorithm was updated for 2012.  Track and intensity error distributions were updated to include errors from the last 5 years (2007-2011) and several bug fixes were implemented in the operational product running at the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  (M. DeMaria, A. Schumacher)

An experimental hybrid statistical-dynamical wind speed probability model, developed under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, is being prepared to run in real-time beginning in August 2012.  In this hybrid version of the Monte Carlo WSP uses data from global dynamical model ensembles to generate wind speed probabilities.  The hybrid WSP will be displayed in the HFIP applications prototype web page during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, K. Musgrave)

Figure.  Example of the experimental hybrid statistical-dynamical wind speed probability product for Hurricane Debby, 6/24/12 0 UTC.  Operational (left) and experimental hybrid (right) wind speed probabilities are shown.

Eric Wendoloski, a senior from Millersville University in Millersville, PA, is visiting CIRA during the summer on a NOAA Hollings Scholarship. He is using the World Wide Lightning Location Network to investigate the differences in lightning strike characteristics between cloud clusters which developed into tropical cyclones and those which dissipated.  Location fixes for the developing systems comes from the best track data, and location fixes for the dissipating systems comes from a data set of Dvorak fixes from the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center compiled by Josh Cossuth of Florida State University. (J. Dostalek. M. DeMaria)

Total precipitable water (TPW) fields derived from polar-orbiting satellite measurements (called the blended TPW product) were collected from three different agencies —CIRA, NESDIS, and the Naval Research Laboratory —covering the period 1995-2011. The TPW measurements were combined with best track data from NHC to create a storm-relative TPW dataset for all Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and the East Pacific during those 17 years, with the exception of a few due to missing data.  The TPW structure of Hurricane Isabel at 11 September 2003 at 18Z is given Figure 1.

Figure 1. TPW field of Hurricane Isabel from 18Z on 11 September 2003, created from the blended TPW product and the best track data.

As part of the CIRA cal/val project, a large set of matchups of MIRS AMSU temperature and moisture retrievals and ground truth soundings from the NOAA Gulfstream Jet were obtained from T. Reale of NESDIS for Hurricane Irene of 2011. There were about 150 matching soundings over a 5 day period as the storm approached the U.S. east coast.  These soundings were used as input to programs that estimate maximum potential intensity (MPI) from a theoretical relationship derived by Kerry Emanuel and the vertical velocity profile of an air parcel from an entraining plume model. In order to extend this work to other case studies, as well as real time evaluation of the MIRS soundings, preparations are being made to collect the MIRS soundings, the currently used AMSU soundings, the dropsonde data, and the GFS fields entirely at CIRA.  With these data, comparisons will be made between the performance of tropical cyclone products produced by the MIRS retrievals and those produced by the current retrieval system.  The MPI calculations, vertical velocity profiles, and intensity estimates are of particular interest in this study.  The results will be provided to the MIRS development team as guidance for possible future improvements of the MIRS retrievals in the tropics and subtropics. (J. Dostalek)

The effect of large-scale vertical motion on tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is being investigated using an omega equation valid for the whole sphere.  Work on this project continued this quarter by continuing the investigation of the differences in omega between disturbances which developed into tropical cyclones and those which dissipated.  Because disturbances tend to develop differently depending on the location in the Atlantic, three different subbasins are being considered: the tropical Atlantic, the subtropical Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico.  As an example, the composite 850-hPa height and omega for developing and dissipating tropical systems at 24 hours and 6 hours before development or decay are given in Figure.2.  The height field shows that the developing systems tend to be associated with stronger waves, and associated with the strength of the system, the omega field show stronger vertical motion, particularly on the western edge of the wave. (J. Dostalek)

Figure 2. Composite 850-hPa height and omega for systems at 24 hours and 6 hours before development or decay: Upper left) Developing composite at -24 hours, Upper right) Dissipating composite at -24 hours, Lower left) Developing composite at -6 hours, and Lower right) Dissipating composite at -6 hours.  The height field (black) is contour in m, and the omega field (red) is contoured in hPa day-1, with negative values dashed.

Objective TC Size Estimates:  Tropical cyclone size metrics are typically subjective and vary with analyst, technique, metric, and warning agency.  In this quarter methods to objectively estimate size from intensity, latitude and infrared imagery of TCs were developed and applied to North Atlantic and North Pacific tropical cyclones.  In the coming quarter work will concentrate on developing global tropical cyclone size climatologies and relating size variations to environmental factors.  (J. Knaff)   

Meetings with Risk Management Solutions (RMS):  RMS scientists are interested in developing tropical cyclone risk models for the Western North Pacific, but because aircraft reconnaissance is not available in this basin they were interested in analyses from the Multi-platform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis.  After detailed examination of the variability of MTCSWA fields in both the Atlantic and West Pacific and comparing MTCSWA wind fields vs. those created by HWind (i.e., aircraft based), they concluded that the Parametric model developed from HWind was valid in the Western North Pacific.   At the same time they were able to show the relative differences between the basins using MTCSWA as well as more thoroughly document the strengths and shortcomings of the MTCSWA products.  Documentation of these findings will be pursued in the remainder of 2012.  (J. Knaff)

Reruns of the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability algorithm were created for all Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2004 to 2011 and provided to Michael Splitt at Florida Institute of Technology.  Both interval and cumulative wind speed probabilities generated by the 2012 version of the algorithm were provided on 1) an Atlantic basin grid and 2) at a list of fixed breakpoints provided by M. Splitt.  These probabilities will be used to evaluate the NHC Wind Speed Probability product.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

J. Dostalek attended the 3rd NOAA Testbed and Proving Ground Workshop in Boulder, CO.  The workshop was designed to enhance communication among the various NOAA testbeds and proving grounds through updates given by each testbed/proving ground and through discussion among the attendees.  In addition, the integrating science theme of intense precipitation was addressed through oral and poster presentations.  As part of the intense precipitation theme, J. Dostalek gave a talk entitled “Precipitation Products in the GOES-R Proving Ground.”  About 50 people took part, both in person and remotely.  (J. Dostalek)

J.Dostalek visited Traut Elementary School in Fort Collins to give a presentation about hurricanes and tornadoes to the 4th grade classes.  For both types of storms, the general conditions conducive to formation were discussed, as well as the principal causes of damage.  The presentation ended with tornado safety tips, and was followed by a question and answer period. (J. Dostalek)

High Wind Prediction:  In collaboration with Tony Wimmers (CIMSS), a new GIMPAP project is just getting underway in which satellite information will be combined with model forecast fields to predict downslope windstorms at several wind-prone locations in the western U.S.  NWS forecasters from Boulder, Salt Lake City, and Las Vegas will also be involved.  Forecasters at each office have been contacted about obtaining observed wind data at multiple locations.  (D. Lindsey, D. Bikos)

New Suomi NPP VIIRS Blog plains wildfire case: The CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/ has a new example, VIIRS imagery for a plains wildfire, as described in the Blog entry:  On 18 March 2012, very warm, very dry and very windy conditions existed throughout eastern Colorado.  Surface observations showed temperatures in the 70s and 80s °F, dew points in the teens and 20s °F, and sustained winds at 20-30 knots (gusting over 40 knots).  Wind gusts up to 60 knots (~70 mph) were reported.  A red flag warning was issued for nearly all of eastern Colorado.  And with good reason!  A grass fire started in Yuma County, CO (which borders Nebraska and Kansas) in the early afternoon, and quickly grew out of control.  The media dubbed it the Heartstrong Fire.  An area 14 x 16 miles had to be evacuated, although only 2400 acres actually burned.  Two homes were destroyed, and three firefighters were injured battling the blaze.

Even though cirrus clouds covered the area, VIIRS observed the fire in its two 3.7 µm channels.  The VIIRS images shown here, from 1934 UTC, were taken roughly 20 minutes after the fire was first reported.  The moderate resolution band M-12 (centered at 3.7 µm) identifies a hot spot (which shows up as black in the image below) that is approximately 6 pixels by 3 pixels.  With ~750 m resolution in this band at nadir, that corresponds to a total area of 10.2 km² of the pixels with fire signal

Image of the Heartstrong Fire from VIIRS channel M-12, 19:34 UTC 18 March 2012

The high resolution imagery band I-4 (centered at 3.74 µm) also identifies the hot spot.  In this case it is approximately 11 pixels by 5 pixels in size.  At ~375 m resolution at nadir, this corresponds to a total area of 7.7 km² of the pixels with radiative signal from the fire.

Image of the Heartstrong Fire from VIIRS channel I-4, 1934 UTC 18 March 2012

Thus, the difference in resolution between these two channels leads to a difference in the apparent size of the hot spot as seen by satellites. (It should be noted that this simple area estimate does not take into account distance from nadir as the spatial resolution of VIIRS degrades toward the edge of the scan in the SDR data shown). However, this apparent size is an only an estimate of the size of the hot spot visible in the satellite image, not the actual size of the fire. Fires move in narrow flame fronts that cover only a small percentage of the pixel area. From a firefighting perspective, detecting which pixels actually contain fire and where the actual burning occurs within those pixels  are two different things.

Of additional importance is the difference in observed brightness temperatures between these two channels.  The warmest pixel in M-12 was 327 K, while the warmest pixel in I-4 was 345 K.  As the observed brightness temperature depends on the fraction of each pixel covered by fire, the higher resolution images produce higher brightness temperatures in the hot spot.  This means that, to a human observer, the fire appears larger in the M-band image, while, from an automated algorithm point-of-view, the I-band image has a larger number of pixels within the hot spot, and higher brightness temperatures.  These are important factors when trying to detect fires from satellites. Neither the apparent size nor the apparent temperature is the true size or temperature of the fire.

As an additional note, band M-13 (centered at 4.05 µm) is the primary band used in active fire detection as it was designed to measure the radiative signal of hot spots without sensor saturation. This band detected the hot spot as well, although the warmest pixel in this case was 306 K.  This band is used by a dedicated team of researchers actively exploring fire detection from VIIRS. You can learn more about fire detection and the status of their current fire detection products by visiting viirsfire.geog.umd.edu.
Please see the Blog entry http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/ for additional images and information on this case.  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Suomi NPP VIIRS Blog Updates:  Some new posts have been added to the Suomi NPP Imagery and Visualization Team Blog in recent days:  The first one is about “Time-lapse of the Lower North Fork Fire” in Colorado (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/timelapse-of-the-lower-north-fork-fire/); a second one is about “VIIRS view of Invest 97S at night” (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/viirs-view-of-invest-97s-at-night/); and a third one is about “The Last Line of Storms from the 14 April 2012 Tornado Outbreak” (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/the-last-line-of-storms-from-the-14-april-2012-tornado-outbreak/).  Feedback is welcome.  The Blog serves to highlight interesting uses of VIIRS imagery, including comparisons to other satellites and sensors.  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

New NPP Imagery Team Website and Blog Entries:  Five new PowerPoint presentations are been added to the NPP VIIRS EDR Imagery and Visualization Team website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/.  Topics include: an example of VIIRS band-M6 radiance foldover as seen in SDR imagery (courtesy of Curtis Seaman, CIRA); an example of VIIRS true-color imagery for a dust storm over Iraq (courtesy of Jeff Hawkins, NRL); a presentation on detector-to-detector striping in VIIRS imagery (courtesy of Stan Kidder, CIRA); a more-detailed presentation of VIIRS band-M6 radiance foldover issues (courtesy of Chris Moeller, CIMSS); and the presentation given by D. Hillger at the VIIRS cal/val workshop held 17-18 April 2012 in Greenbelt MD.

In addition, the NPP VIIRS blog http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/ has new VIIRS imagery examples, including the attached image.  (D. Hillger, C. Seaman)

Caption: False color RGB composite (I1-I2-I3) image of Easter Island, 2044 UTC on 25 April 2012
At approximately 24.6 km x 12.3 km, VIIRS has no problem identifying the triangular island, as the false color (I1-I2-I3) RGB composite shows.  In this image the 163-km2 island appears to be dwarfed by a thunderstorm just to its north.

Interesting Example of Day-Night-Band Imagery from Suomi NPP: A Day-Night-Band (DNB) image from Suomi NPP taken on 30 April 2012 is shown in Figure 1.  The image, over North Dakota and Minnesota, shows the lights of major cities, but also a large cluster of oil well flares in northwestern North Dakota.  This area centered around Williston ND is where extensive oil exploration is taking place.  The striping in the imagery is a result of the high degree of enhancement used in extremely low light conditions and is not un-expected.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure 1: Suomi NPP Day-Night-Band image over North Dakota and Minnesota.  Note in particular, the large cluster of oil well flares in northwestern North Dakota.

New NPP VIIRS Blog entry: The CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog has a new VIIRS imagery example for “Popocatépetl, the Smoking Mountain.”  The alert level for Popocatépetl was raised in mid-April after the volcano was heard rumbling and once again began spewing ash over the region.  VIIRS on board Suomi NPP saw the ash cloud.  Below is an image of the I-01 reflectance (white = 1, black = 0) taken by VIIRS on 16 April 2012 at 2025 UTC.  For more detail and images, see the Blog link (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/).  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Figure: Image of Popocatepetl’s ash plume from VIIRS channel I-01, 2025 UTC 16 April 2012.  The ash plume is pushed to the east by the winds surrounding the cloud-covered volcano (where the arrow is pointing). On a clearer day, you can see Popocatépetl, Iztaccíhuatl, Matlacuéyatl, and the tallest volcano in Mexico, Pico de Orizaba:

New NPP VIIRS Blog entry:  The CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog now has VIIRS imagery for the Hewlett Fire NE of Fort Collins CO.  These Blog cases are not just neat imagery examples, but provide, as near as possible at this point, real-time analysis of the strengths of VIIRS Imagery as used in current situations.  A large variety of phenomena have been and will continue to be examined, as examples of the expanded capabilities of VIIRS over previous polar-orbiting imagery in particular.  In the attached zoomed-in image, the light from the fire covered an area approximately one third the size of Fort Collins.  In the second image, taken before the burn area reached its maximum size, channel I-04 also saw this ring of fire.  (C. Seaman, D. Lindsey, D. Hillger)

Zoomed Day/Night Band image of the Hewlett Fire, 09:26 UTC on 17 May 2012. Image courtesy Dan Lindsey.

VIIRS channel I-04 image of the Hewlett Fire, 09:26 UTC on 17 May 2012
Once again, darker colors indicate higher brightness temperatures. The peak temperature in channel I-04 at this time was 356 K.

NPP Imagery Request: K. Gallo of STAR/EROS Center requested a specific Day-Night-Band (DNB) image over the upper Midwest from 14 May 2012, after seeing a similar but earlier image created by D. Lindsey.  The image shows in particular the large cluster of oil well flares in northwestern ND.  C. Seaman is assigning with production of the new image, which is being considered for display in the lobby of the USGS EROS facility in Sioux Falls SD.  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Figure: DNB image from 14 May 2012 showing a large cluster of oil well flares in northwest ND.  This particular image is cloud free and thus shows the lights of major cities in the region.

Catatumbo Lightning from Suomi NPP VIIRS:  The CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog now has VIIRS DNB imagery of Catatumbo Lightning.  Catatumbo lightning is one of the world’s most frequent lightning displays, with thunderstorms forming over the Catatumbo River in Venezuela an average of 160 nights per year.  The lightning displays last up to 9 hours, beginning shortly after dusk.  The lightning is nearly continuous and so vivid and reliable that it has been called the “Lighthouse of Maracaibo” or the “Catatumbo Lighthouse,” as fisherman and sailors have historically used it as a navigation aid.  Earlier this month, when the moon was about 80% full, Suomi NPP passed over Lake Maracaibo at night and, sure enough, a thunderstorm was present right over the mouth of the Catatumbo River.  The image in Figure 1, taken from the high resolution imagery IR-window channel (I-05, 11.45 µm) on 10 May 2012, shows the deep convection over Venezuela and Colombia.  The largest thunderstorm near the center of the image formed along the shore of Lake Maracaibo, near the mouth of the Catatumbo River.  Figure 2 show what the DNB saw at the same time.  The bright, almost rectangular streaks in the image are lightning strikes.  The red arrow points out a lightning strike from the Catatumbo storm – a “Catatumbo lightning” strike, if you will.

The blocky appearance of lightning is due to the fact that VIIRS is a scanning radiometer.  As the instrument scans the swath of the Earth that it sees, a bright, transient flash (such as from lightning) will show up in the along-scan direction as an individual streak of light in each sensor.  The DNB has 16 different sensors that scan the swath simultaneously, and since lightning typically stretches over a large enough area to be detected by all of them, you get 16 different streaks all lined up next to each other.  By the time the sensors have rotated back around for the next scan, the lightning flash has ended, producing abrupt edges in the direction along the satellite track.  Images from the DMSP Operational Linescan System produce much more “streaky” lightning (not shown here).  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Figure 1: VIIRS I-05 image of thunderstorms near Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela taken 06:44 UTC on 10 May 2012

Figure 2: VIIRS Day/Night Band image of thunderstorms near Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela taken 06:44 UTC on 10 May 2012

VIIRS Day/Night Band Image on display at US Geological Survey facility:  A VIIRS Day/Night Band image acquired on 14 May 2012, that displays the nighttime gas flares associated with oil extraction in the Bakken Formation oil fields of North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, has been placed in the lobby of the US Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center.  Other features that can be observed in this image include the nighttime lights of the cities located within this region.  The image was processed by the NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Imagery and Visualization Team from preliminary VIIRS data provided by NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS).  (Contact – Kevin Gallo, kevin.p.gallo@noaa.gov, 605-594-2748, or Don Hillger, E/RA1, don.hillger@noaa.gov, 970-491-8498)

New Suomi NPP VIIRS Blog entry:  The CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog has new imagery about the Cape Verde islands and the amazing view of them captured by VIIRS as extracted below.  For more detail and images, see the Blog link (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/).

False color RGB composite of VIIRS channels I-1, I-2 and I-3 taken 14:41 UTC 5 June 2012

The image above was made from the RGB composite of VIIRS high-resolution imagery channels I-01, I-02 and I-03.  While it technically is a false color image (uses reflectance at 0.64 µm [blue],  0.865 µm [green] and 1.61 µm [red]), it looks realistic in many situations, so that we refer to it as “pseudo-true color.”  Snow and ice show up as an unrealistic blue, however, which is the main difference between it and a “true color” image.  You might also notice a few more differences between the “pseudo-true color” image above and the “true color” image below.

True color RGB composite of VIIRS channels M-3, M-4 and M-5 taken 14:41 UTC 5 June 2012

The true color image uses moderate resolution channels M-3 (0.48 µm, blue), M-4 (0.55 µm, green) and M-5 (0.67 µm, red), which actually observe radiation in the blue, green and red portions of the visible spectrum.  Apart from differences in resolution, the vegetation on the islands shows up a bit better in the “pseudo-true color” image.  The islands just look brown in the true color image.

What is particularly interesting about these images is the visible effect that the islands have on the local atmosphere.  Downwind (southwest, or to the lower left) of Sal, Boa Vista, and Maio, you can see singular cloud streets, much like the flow of water around a rock.  In the photograph in that link, you can see how the water dips downward on both sides of the center line downstream of the rock, and upward in the middle (along the center line).  The islands are acting like rocks in the atmosphere, causing upward motion behind them, and this lift was enough to form cloud streets.  On either side of these cloud streets there is downward motion and, as a result, clear skies.

Downwind of São Nicolau, São Vicente, and Santo Antão, the cloud streets highlight von Kármán vortices and vortex shedding.  Many of the islands appear to be producing their own aerosol plumes (i.e. dust), and if you zoom in on the area between Boa Vista and Santiago, you can see gravity waves present in some of the plumes (highlighted by the arrows in the image below).  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

False color RGB composite of VIIRS channels I-1, I-2 and I-3 taken 14:41 UTC 5 June 2012

New on the Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery Team website:  Several image-packed PowerPoint presentations and several new single images were added to the Imagery Team website (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/), as contributions from Team members.  The impetuses (impeti?) for several of the contributions were requests from B. Guenther at NASA for presentation materials, as well as other requests for assistance with VIIRS Imagery projects.  The latter requests also involved questions as to when VIIRS imagery will be publicly available.  Steps have been taken to move VIIRS non-NCC imagery further along the “Beta” maturity designation, so that CLASS may release imagery for users other than those involved with the Imagery checkout.

To satisfy a request, for VIIRS imagery showing river ice in Alaska, the following image was provided of the Yukon River delta region from 20 May 2012.  This image is a false color RGB composite from VIIRS that makes identifying ice and snow easy.  (D. Hillger, C. Seaman)

Figure 1: Yukon River delta region from 20 May 2012. Where ice and snow show up as blue, clouds containing ice crystals show up as a more pale blue, liquid clouds show up as white (or a dirty, off-white), vegetation shows up as green, and open water is nearly black.

New Suomi NPP VIIRS Blog entry:  Although the main focus of wildfires in Colorado is now on Colorado Springs, the CIRA NPP VIIRS Blog (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/) has a new entry about the High Park Fire in Colorado.  One of the more interesting images is the Day/Night Band (DNB).  The DNB image shows just how large and how close the High Park Fire got to Fort Collins.  The smoke plume, while not exactly visible, is affecting the view of the east side of the fire and Fort Collins, making them appear more blurry than they would if the sky were completely clear.  Overnight on 11 June 2012, the fire covered an area larger than any of the cities visible in the image (except for Denver, which is mostly cropped off the bottom of the image).  (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Day/Night Band image of the High Park Fire from VIIRS taken 09:58 UTC 11 June 2012. (Image courtesy D. Lindsey, STAR.)

GOES-R3 Convective Initiation Project:  Work continues on a GOES-R Risk Reduction Project whose goal is to improve 1-6 hour forecasts of convective initiation.  This is a collaborative effort between CIRA, CIMSS, UAH, NSSL, and CREST.  Five-minute output from the NSSL-WRF was obtained for a case study from 21 May 2011.  Simulated radar reflectivity was used to define Convective Initiation (> 35 dbz at 4-km AGL), so this will be used as the validation dataset.  Predictors will include data and products from the simulated GOES-R bands, along with NWP forecasts.  One of the inputs is the 10.35-12.3 µm difference.  We have recently developed a method to normalize this difference for the low-level temperature lapse rate in an effort to remove the diurnal signal in the difference.  An example of the difference for the 21 May 2011 case study is below.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

Figure.  Simulated 10.35-12.3 µm data from 21 May 2011 based on a 18-hr, 30-min forecast from the NSSL WRF-ARW.  The yellows and reds generally indicate regions with more water vapor, and the blue colors are clouds.

In preparation for the GOES-R Proving Ground activities at the Storm Prediction Center (as part of their annual Spring Experiment), synthetic GOES-R imagery was provided for a Weather Event Simulator case (24 May 2011).  In addition, a job sheet was created that provides a walk-through for forecasters to understand how to use and interpret the synthetic imagery.  This WES case will be provided to forecasters participating in the Spring Experiment prior to their arrival as a means to familiarize/train them on the products. (D. Lindsey)

A new collaboration, headed by Bill Blackwell of MIT/LL, has begun with several researchers from various organizations centered around MiniMAS (Miniature Microwave Atmospheric Sounder).  This NASA project plans to launch up to 6 AMSU-like instrument on the next Iridium satellites in 2016.  This configuration would result in 15-25 minute revisit time of the microwave sensor, allowing much better imaging frequency than is available with the current polar-orbiting satellites.  RAMMB’s role is to apply this dataset to tropical cyclone research.  At this point, weekly conference calls are held, primarily to discuss the necessary details of the proposal to be written.  (J. Dostalek)

There are a number of things to report concerning GOES-R Proving Ground activities related to the HWT.  First the GOES sounder-based Airmass RGB product is now available in real-time on operational systems at SPC.  J. Knaff and M. Folmer (OPC/HPC) provided input detailing the creation, dissemination and training associated with the GOES sounder-based Airmass RGB product for the HWT’s Ops Plan.  Finally, training material (WES jobsheet) was created for the Airmass RGB Product.  All inputs provided to C. Siewert who was coordinating the Ops Plan.  (J. Knaff)

L. Grasso gave an invited talk last January 2012 on our true-color imagery. The invitation was extended by Amy Huff (Battelle). Our presentation was given remotely to the Air Quality Proving Ground Workshop on January 12, 2012. (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and R. Brummer)

We have been invited to return to the IMET satellite training to present our GOES-R fire work.  Last March, CIRA trained IMET on the interpretation of synthetic GOES-R imagery that contains fire hot spots. Peter Roohr and Mike Johnson extended the invitation. Bonnie Reed has been working with Peter to find funding for this effort.
Due to funding shortages, this workshop was cancelled. (L. Grasso)

We began collaborating with Paul van Delst (NCEP/EMC) this quarter. He is helping us develop code that will read output from a numerical model and initialized specific variables that are needed by the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). I hosted his visit last January. (L. Grasso, Y-J. Noh, R. Brummer)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

19 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 26 teletraining signups, 83 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

         Registrations:  172

            Completions:  118

LMS totals from January 2005 through July 11, 2012:

Registrations:  5829

Completions: 3792

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training that debuted this quarter:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW model in Forecasting Cyclogenesis.
• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW model in Forecasting Low Clouds and Fog.

New training forum:

• VISIT Satellite Chat – Virtual interactive training sessions that are intended to:

            a) be brief, target length of 30 minutes.
b) demonstrate satellite products that can be applied to operational forecasting.
c) exchange ideas across both operational and academic sides.
d) identify new training topics based on specific participant needs.
e) incorporate seasonal examples that are timely, and use real-time data (where applicable).

As of July 11, 2012, there have been 5 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 20 NWS forecast office signups.  Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4-km WRF-ARW model in temperature forecasting related to sky cover.

Research:

• Bikos, D., Lindsey, D.T., Otkin, J., Sieglaff, J., Grasso, L., Siewert, C., Correia Jr., J., Coniglio, M., Rabin, R., Kain, J.S., and S. Dembek, 2012: Synthetic Satellite Imagery For Real-Time High Resolution Model Evaluation. Wea. Forecasting,27,784-795. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00130.1 The paper deals with use of the synthetic satellite imagery generated at CIRA in collaboration with NSSL, which is a CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground product.
• D. Bikos and J. Finch submitted a manuscript to the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.  The title of the manuscript is “Russian Tornado Outbreak: 9 June 1984” and has been accepted for publication.

Collaboration:

J. Braun with D. Lindsey are initiating a collaborative effort between CIRA/GOES-R Proving Ground project and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and their Aviation Weather Testbed to access the use of forecast synthetic imagery in NAWIPS in aviation weather forecasting.  Currently forecast synthetic products – 7.34um, 8.50um, and 10.35-3.9um fog product are being provided and utilized with additional real-time GOES-R products planned to be added in the future.

D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds.  The blog averages about 300 views per week.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – July 12, 2012.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

Meetings and Calls

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on April 9 and May 21.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participated in the COMET monthly satellite training calls.  (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

The following 4 courses continue to be administered:

1. SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.  Released March 2011. Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

      Core courses:

1. Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
2. Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
3. GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
4. Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
5. Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
6. Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
7. Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

Optional courses:

1. Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
2. The UW Convective Initiation Product.
3. Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
4. Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

2. Tropical SHyMet.  Released August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

1. Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
2. Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
3. An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
4. An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
5. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
6. ASCAT Winds
7. AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

3. SHyMet For Forecasters Learning Plan:  Released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :

This Development Plan includes:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
9. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

4. SHyMet Intern Learning Plan: Released April 2006
The SHyMet Intern course consists of 9 modules.
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:

Collaboration:

J. Braun is currently collaborating with Jesse Sparks (interim SOO) from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) on building a new SHyMet learning plan for Aviation Weather.   

Professional Meeting:

Connell, B., Bikos, D., and Braun, J., 2012:  National and International Training: Merging New and Old Frontiers  Science/Proving Ground Meeting,  Kansas City,  MO, 30 April – 4 May, Poster

Community outreach:

Volunteer work supporting after-school weather club: B. Connell, and K. Gebhart ran a weekly after-school weather club on Mondays for Putnam Elementary (K-5) for 6 weeks during April through May 2012.  There was a 90 minute session each week.  Sessions covered precipitation measurement, wind (speed and direction), clouds, temperature, and things that spin as well as measurements that are associated with these weather occurrences.  Putnam has a coordinator who is responsible for matching students with clubs, assigning classrooms, providing snacks, and providing transportation – which is great!

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (19 April, 24 May, and 20 June 2012) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ).   We used GoToWebinar for voice over the Internet.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the International Desk at NCEP, CSU, UCAR/NWSIA , as well as outside the continental U.S.: Barbados, Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Niger, Panamá, St. Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The June session was well attended and represented by 21 participants from 9 countries.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussion.  The highlights of this session included a dominating ridge pattern over the Caribbean , a trough over Mexico, and a digging trough off the coast of southeast US. Discussions included the current position of the ITCZ in relation to normal, location of the convection associated with a tropical wave, and the South American upper level patterns conducive to higher precipitation in Southern Chile and Southeast Brazil.  Participants provided comments and questions related to the local weather in their regions.  A recording of the session can be found here:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/fg_recording.asp

During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.

Other activities included collection and summary of satellite climatology for Costa Rica and Barbados through 2011.  The updated composites can be viewed for Costa Rica (1997-2011)(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/satellite_climatologies/costa_rica/ )
and Barbados (1998-2011) (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/satellite_climatologies/barbados/ ).

Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 2-week archive feature:  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/  (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

 Virtual Meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory Management Group:  CIRA and the NWS Training Division participated in a virtual meeting of the VLMG on 2 July for the Virtual Laboratory for Training and Education in Satellite Meteorology (VLab) (http://vlab.wmo.int).  The VLab was established under the WMO Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) to promote effective use of satellite meteorology throughout the WMO member countries.  The VLab consists of members from major satellite operators across the globe collaborating with WMO centres of excellence.  The topics of the meeting included the Caribbean Aviation Week during the first week of May, updates to the document for user readiness for new generation satellites and using a maturity model to access progress in meeting training goals.  Preparations for the VLMG meeting in October in Brazil were also discussed.  (B. Connell)

Two new systems and three new NAS devices have been configured for the JPSS project. (D. Molenar)

A new noaaport ingestor has been installed. Efforts to migrate applications from old RedHat4 systems are ongoing. A new tropical data processing system has been configured. Replacement awips & wes workstations have been procured. (D. Molenar)

To Accepted and Submitted Publications        To Awards and Citations        To Presentations and Posters

Published:

• Refereed

Bikos, D., D.T. Lindsey, J. Otkin, J. Sieglaff, L.D. Grasso, C. Siewert, J. Correia Jr., M. Coniglio, R. Rabin, J. Kain, S. Dembek: 2012: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High Resolution Model Evaluation. Weather and Forecasting, 27:3, 784-795.

DeMaria, M., R.T. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff and D.A. Molenar, 2012: Tropical cyclone lighting and rapid intensity change. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140:6, 1828-1842.  (To be highlighted in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).

Goni, G.J.,J.A. Knaff, and I-I Lin, 2012: [The Tropics] Tropical cyclone heat potential [in special supplement “State of the Climate in 2011”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93:7, S114-S116.

Goodman, S.J., J. Gurka, M. DeMaria, T.J. Schmit, A. Mostek, G. Jedlovec, C. Siewert, W. Feltz, J. Gerth, R. Brummer, S. Miller, B. Reed, and R.R. Reynolds, 2012: The GOES-R Proving Ground: Accelerating User Readiness for the Next-Generation Geostationary Environmental Satellite System. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93:7 1029–1040 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00175.1

Vigh, J.L., J.A. Knaff, W.H. Schubert, 2012: A climatology of hurricane eye formation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140:5, 1405–1426. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00108.1

• Nonrefereed

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, J.L. Beven, M. Brennan, S. Miller, A.B.Schumacher, R. DeMaria, J.F. Dostalek, and D. Welsh, 2012: Application of Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Imagers and Sounders to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.   

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A.B. Schumacher, J. Kaplan, 2012: Improving Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts from Statistical-Dynamical Models. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Dostalek, J.F., W. Schubert, M. DeMaria, 2012: Global Omega Equation: Its Derivation and Use in Tropical Cyclogenesis. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Folmer, M.J., A.L. Molthan, K.K. Fuell, J.A. Knaff, J.M. Sienkiewicz, E. Danaher, J. Kibler, D.R. Novak, B. Reed, J.L. Beven II, M. DeMaria, 2012:  The Use of the RGB Airmass Product at the HPC, OPC, NHC, and SAB GOES-R Proving Grounds during the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Kaplan, J., C.M. Rozoff, C.R. Sampson, J.P. Kossin, C.S. Velden, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2012:  Assessing the predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification as a function of forecast lead-time using the SHIPS rapid intensification index. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, J.F.Dostalek, A.B. Schumacher. Improved Understanding and Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Structure Changes. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, D.W. Hillger, D.T. Lindsey, D.A. Molenar, J.L. Beven II, M.J. Brennan, H.D. Cobb III, R.L. Brummer. A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Dunion, K.K.Fuell, A.L. Molthan, C.S. Velden, 2012:    Overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at National Hurricane Center. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and C. Rozoff. Improved Understanding and Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Structure Changes. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J. Peak, J. Cummings, W. Schubert, 2012: The Upper Ocean’s Thermal Response to Tropical Cyclones. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

Knapp, K.R., J.A. Knaff, C.R. Sampson, 2012: Inter-comparison of climatological TC winds and pressures in the Western North Pacific. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2012:  Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Structure Evolution in the HWRF Model.  30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.

McNoldy, B.D., K.D. Musgrave, M. DeMaria, 2012: Diagnostics and verification of the tropical cyclone environment in regional models.   30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.  

Musgrave, K.D., B.D. McNoldy, M. DeMaria, 2012:  Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction.  30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.                                 

Peak, J.E., C.R. Sampson, J. Cummings, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, W. Schubert, 2012: An Upper Ocean Thermal Field Metrics Dataset. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.      

Sampson, C.R., A.B. Schumacher, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, E.M. Fukada, C. Sisko, D.P. Roberts, K.A. Winters, H.M. Wilson, 2012:  An Objective Aid for DoD Base Preparations in Advance of Tropical Cyclones. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.                              

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2012: Another Look at the Use of Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.  

Sitkowski, M., J.P. Kossin, C.M. Rozoff, J.A. Knaff, 2012: Thermodynamic Evolution of the Hurricane Inner-Core during Eyewall Replacement Cycles and Ramifications of the Relict Wind Maximum. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.                                

Slocum, C.J., M. DeMaria, W. Schubert, 2012:   Determining Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change through Balanced Vortex Model Applications. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.                                                         

Zhang, F., Y. Weng, X. Ge, J. Knaff, 2012: Performance of Cloud-permitting Hurricane Prediction through Assimilating High-resolution Airborne Doppler Radar and Satellite-derived Inner-core Observations. 30th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 15-20 April, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL.                                                     
    

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Lin, I-I, G.J. Goni, J.A. Knaff, C. Forbes, M.M. Ali, 2012: Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting and Its Impact on Storm Surge.  Journal of Natural Hazards.

Musgrave, K.D., R.K. Taft, J.L. Vigh, B.D. McNoldy, and W.H. Schubert, 2012: Time evolution of the intensity and size of tropical cyclones. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

Sampson, C., A.B. Schumacher, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, C. Sisko, D. Roberts, K. Winters, and H. Wilson, 2012: Objective guidance for use in setting Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness. Weather and Forecasting. 

Setvak, M., K. Bedka, D.T. Lindsey, A. Sokol, Z. Charvat, J. Stastka, and P. Wang, 2012: A-Train observations of deep convective storm tops. Atmospheric Research.. 

Sitkowski, M., J. Kossin, C. Rozoff, and J.A. Knaff, 2012: Hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and the relict inner eyewall circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev.

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2012:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, C.R. Sampson, J.E. Peak, J. Cummings, W.H. Schubert, 2012: Upper Oceanic Energy Response to Tropical Cyclone Passage. Journal of Climate

Lindsey D.T., T. Schmit, W. MacKenzie, C. Jewett, M. Gunshor, L.D. Grasso, 2012: 10.35 µm: An atmospheric window with less moisture attenuation. J. Appl. Remote Sens.

Miller, S.D., S.P. Mills, C.D. Elvidge, D.T. Lindsey, T.F. Lee, and J.D. Hawkins, 2012: Suomi NPP satellite brings light to a new frontier of night time environmental sensing capabilities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2012: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Zhang, M., M. Zupanski, M-J Kim, J.A. Knaff:  Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances in TC Inner Core with NOAA Operational HWRF and a Hybrid Data Assimilation System: Danielle (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev.

• Nonrefereed 

Awards and Citations:

M. DeMaria received the AMS Banner I. Miller Award for an outstanding contribution to the science of hurricane and tropical weather forecasting published in a journal with international circulation during the 48 months prior to AMS Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology. He received the award for his Monthly Weather Review paper entitled “A Simplified System of Equations for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting,” which describes the mathematical formulation and preliminary tests of the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM), which has since become a valuable operational forecast tool for the National Hurricane Center.

DeMaria, M., R.T. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, D.A. Molenar: The recently accepted Monthly Weather Review manuscript entitled “Tropical Cyclone Lighting and Rapid Intensity Change” was selected to be highlighted in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) papers of note section.

M. DeMaria, J. Kaplan (HRD), and J.A. Knaff received a DOC Bronze Medal for “For providing skillful operational hurricane intensity models as demonstrated by the NHC forecast verifications for the 2009 and 2010 seasons.”  J. Knaff and J. Kaplan attended the award ceremony in Silver Spring.  

Presentations:

Dostalek, J.F., 2012: Precipitation Products in the GOES-R Proving Ground. 3rd NOAA Testbed and Proving Ground Workshop, 30 April – 3 May, Boulder, CO

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and C. Rozoff, 2012: Improved Understanding and Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Structure Changes. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO. 

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, J. Mecikalski, J. Walker, L. Schultz, C. Velden, S. Wanzong, R. Rabin, B. Vant-Hull, 2012: Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.      

Miller, S.D., T. Schmit, 2012: Imagery – ABI and VIIRS. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.      

DeMaria, M., M. Brennan, 2012: New Tropical Cyclone Products from GOES-R and JPSS. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.  

Gosden, H., D.A. Molenar, 2012: Potential Applications in AWIPS II. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.

Jedlovec, G., M. DeMaria, T. Schmit, 2012: RGB Activities for the GOES-R Proving Ground. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.

Zupanski, M., 2012: Quantifying observation impact in data assimilation. Statistical and Applied Mathematical Institute (SAMSI) Uncertainty Quantification: Transition Workshop, 21-23 May 2012, Research Triangle Park, NC. [Available at http://www.samsi.info/sites/default/files/zupanski_may2012.pdf]

Zupanski, M., K. Apodaca, M. Zhang, L.D. Grasso, G. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2012: Utility of GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) using Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation in Regional Applications. NOAA Satellite Science Week Meeting, 30 April – 4 May, Kansas City, MO.

Posters:

Connell, B., Bikos, D., and Braun, J., 2012:  National and International Training: Merging New and Old Frontiers  Science/Proving Ground Meeting,  Kansas City,  MO, 30 April – 4 May.

Zupanski M., L.D. Grasso, J.A. Knaff, K. Apodaca, and M. Zhang, 2012: Utility of GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) using Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Data Assimilation in Regional Applications. NOAA Satellite Science Week 2012, April 30-May 4, 2012, Kansas City, MS. [Available at
http://www.goes-r.gov/downloads/2012-Science-Week/posters/tues/14_Zupanski.pdf]

Notes:

Kudos for RAMMB Hurricane research:

Rappaport, E.N., J.-G. Jiing, C.W. Landsea, S.T. Murillo, J.L. Franklin, 2012: The Joint Hurricane Test Bed: Its First Decade of Tropical Cyclone Research-To-Operations Activities Reviewed. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 371–380. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00037.1

An abstract and cover letter were submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, for a proposed article titled “First-Light Imagery from Suomi NPP VIIRS.”  Eleven authors from five institutions are named as contributors.  (D. Hillger)

HWT Spring Experiment: D. Lindsey traveled to Norman, OK, in May 2012 and participated in the Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment.  CIRA provided several simulated ABI products in AWIPS-II format to be evaluated during the experiment.  Useful feedback was received – some blog entries about the simulated imagery can be found here: http://goesrhwt.blogspot.com/search/label/Simulated%20Satellite%20Imagery  D. Lindsey also worked with Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS/SPC) to learn more about transitioning experimental products into AWIPS-II format.

VIIRS Cal/Val Workshop: D. Hillger attended a two-day VIIRS Calibration/Validation workshop on 17-18 April 2012 for SDR and EDR Teams working with Suomi NPP.  Results were compiled and presented for the Imagery EDR Team.  The following day, 19 April, Hillger participated in a half-day training session for a Northrup Grumman-developed tool that updates the look up table (LUT) that converts the Day Night Band (SDR) into Near Constant Contrast (EDR) imagery.  This LUT tool needs to be applied periodically when improvements are expected from an update.  At least two LUT updates are currently planned, in order to provide users with the best NCC imagery product.  (D. Hillger)

Mike Fromm (Naval Research Lab) visit CIRA on Tuesday May 15. He and D. Lindsey have been collaborating for a number of years, principally on studies of pyroCumulonimbus events. (D. Lindsey)