Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Weaver, Dostalek, Grasso, Bikos, Motta

GOES-10 assessment data from the 08 Apr 98, Birmingham, Alabama tornado case is proving to be an excellent data set for helping to understand the environment preceding southeastern U.S. tornadoes.  In particular, the low-level broken-to-overcast sky coverage that we thought might mask important low-level boundaries, may actually reveal previously undefined features associated with the evolution of the boundary layer.  In the case of 08 Apr 98, for example, we find two cloud lines which seem to mark fairly large-scale convergence zones.  The origin(s) of these convergence zones, and their  role(s) in the convective cycle, is not yet fully understood.  Research continues.
 

Reviewer’s comments have been received from National Weather Digest for the 31 May 1996 Kansas and Colorado severe weather case study.  The results were favorable, both reviewers having accepted the manuscript with minor revisions.   Questions/concerns will be addressed and the article sent back for publication.  An electronic version of portions of this case (called “Detecting low-level thunderstorm Outflow boundaries using GOES at night”) can be viewed at —  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lto.html

GOES-8 SRSO imagery and WSR-88D data from 17 May 1996 have been synthesized and show that the development of a long-lived left moving storm was triggered by an expanding low-level thunderstorm outflow boundary interacting with a pre-existing convergence line.  Historical numerical modeling evidence suggests that left moving updrafts develop from the “classic” storm splitting process. This study hopes to show that, at times, left movers might develop by another process. A “note” to Weather and Forecasting is being prepared.

DeMaria, Zehr, Hilgendorf, Knaff, Connell, Phillips

Algorithms for determining the temperature, geopotential height and balanced wind fields of tropical cyclones using data from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) are being developed. The positions of all east Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones are obtained from the National Hurricane Center, and the AMSU data is collected for each storm.  Temperatures are determined from the AMSU radiances using an algorithm developed by Mitch Goldberg (NESDIS Climate Research and Applications Division). The geopotential heights are determined from the hydrostatic equation, where an NCEP analysis is used for boundary conditions. The symmetric tangential winds as a function of radius and pressure (or radius and height) are then determined from the gradient wind equation. Methods are also being developed to determine the three-dimensional wind field from the geopotential heights using the nonlinear balance equation.  A web site has been created where the tropical cyclone analyses can be viewed in near-real time (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/tropic/amsustrm.stm).

Four basic products are produced for each storm for which AMSU data are available.  Examples of these products for hurricane Adrian are shown below. The four products include the data swath (Hamsu1.gif) which shows the locations of the AMSU data relative to the storm center, the surface pressure (Hamsu2.gif), a radial-height cross section of the azimuthally averaged temperature anomaly (Hamsu3.gif),  and a radial-height cross section of the azimuthally average gradient wind (Hamsu4.gif). The resolution of the AMSU data varies from about 50 km near nadir, to about 130 km near the limb of the scan.  Because hurricane Adrian was near the limb, the algorithm failed to resolve the storm core.  The storm had maximum winds of about 80 kt at the time of the AMSU pass, but the analysis only indicated winds of about 30 kt.  However, the analysis can still provide useful information about the vertical and horizontal structure of the storm. For example, in the case of Adrian, the AMSU analysis showed that the cyclonic circulation extended through a very deep layer, and the maximum warm anomaly occurred at a fairly high level.
 

The height and wind retrieval technique also shows promise for applications at high latitudes. The retrieval method was applied to an upper level trough, as shown in Hamsu5.gif.  Hamsu6.gif shows the 400 mb geopotential height field from the AMSU analysis and from the operational NCEP analysis. The trough in the AMSU analysis was deeper, and more cut off than that in the NCEP analysis. Work is underway to estimate the accuracy of the heights and winds estimated by the retrieval technique by comparison with in situ observations.
 

A revised version of an “expert system” to predict the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes 24 hours in advance has been readied for evaluation during this year’s hurricane season.  The system combines qualitative input based on animated GOES imagery with quantitative information from operational models to derive its 24-hour
forecast intensity.

A project is underway to document three to six hour oscillations of deep convection associated with the inner core region of tropical cyclones.  This is a new discovery that is in addition to the more commonly known diurnal cycles of deep convection that occur in tropical cyclones and deep oceanic convection.  A draft paper has been written and internally reviewed.  Work is continuing to improve this documentation with hopes of submitting results for publication next quarter.

Automated collection of several data sets has been begun for the hurricane season.  These data include 3-hourly cloud track winds, European Research Satellite –2 Scatterometer winds, and six hourly GOES sounding data over the tropics.  Other data sets are being collected on Tropical RAMSDIS including global rawindsonde and surface data, and 4 km Infrared images over tropical cyclones.

An hourly rainfall archive, which covers the continental US from 1947-1998, has been obtained from a commercial source.  This CD-ROM-based archive is being used to create special hourly rainfall datasets coincident in time and location with 33 hurricanes and 33 tropical storms known to have made US landfall during its span of data coverage.  These special datasets will be analyzed in detail in order to gain insight into whether a pattern exists in the relative amount of rainfall measured, with respect to the track, of land falling tropical cyclones.

The attached figure (camille.gif) shows an example of the data coverage for the landfall of Hurricane Camille (1969).

Camille.gif: The location of rain gage data and the storm track for the landfall of Hurricane Camille in 1969.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Research continues on a quantitative assessment of the vertical wind shear forcing on Hurricanes Opal, Bertha, and Erika. The final set of computations is nearly complete and an outline of a paper has been completed.

An investigation was completed to evaluate the timing of maximum intensity as revealed by objective IR intensity estimates versus aircraft observations for rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.  Five Atlantic hurricanes and nine western Pacific typhoons were studied.  Using several different criteria, the satellite estimates of the time maximum intensity generally precede the aircraft measurements of intensity peak, by up to 23 hours, with an average of about 12 hours.  These results illustrate the utility of the satellite estimates for short range predictions of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. This validates a finding of a study by Lander (1999) for Northwest Pacific typhoons for which aircraft observations were not available

A dramatic difference in the thermal structure of two similarly looking cyclonic weather systems was documented to show the capabilities of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit.  One storm system had tropical origins and had a warm core throughout the depth of the troposphere while the other originated in the subtropics and had a very strong warm core in the upper troposphere with a cold core below.  The note has been internally reviewed and will be submitted for publication in the next quarter.

Work continues to create detailed wind analyses near the center of tropical cyclones using super rapid scan (SRSO) imagery.   Collaboration with Chris Velden at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies has resulted in a method to automate the creation of very high density winds in the inner most region of the tropical cyclone using existing cloud tracking wind software.  This method will provide winds and height assignments using existing GOES satellite technology.  Below are two examples of the wind field that results from this technique. Work will continue to optimize this technique with the hopes that during the 1999 hurricane season a real-time example can be created and disseminated to the National Hurricane Center.
 

Luisqr.jpg, Mariqr.jpg:  Examples of winds produced using SRSO imagery collected at CIRA and CIMSS cloud drift wind software.  Note that the normal settings, those used for synoptic-scale winds were modified for this application.  Images show winds in three layers (100 –300, 301-700, and 701-1000 hPa) over Hurricanes Luis (top) and Marilyn (bottom).  Both storms occurred in 1995.  (Click on images to enlarge)

Final input was provided for a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Book. R. Zehr is a coauthor with  Mohan Karayampudi (NASA) as  lead author of Chapter 2 — Tropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics. This is a contribution on satellite applications for tropical cyclone analysis, to be used in a Report on WMO Sub-Project No. 19 “Estimating the Amount of Precipitation Associated with Tropical Cyclones Using Satellite Data,”  Professor Eric Barrett, Chief Editor.

Hillger, Campbell, Combs, Dostalek

A McIDAS program has been written to filter bad pixels (shot noise) and bad scan lines out of GOES images.  This program works on 2-byte GOES data, unlike the program provided with McIDAS which works on 1-byte data only.  The filtering program was needed to eliminate values that caused the generation of bad image products when these pixels and lines are not eliminated.  This program can also be used to eliminate bad pixels that affect statistics or composites/climatologies generated from 2-byte GOES imagery.

A GOES longwave infrared difference product (channel-4 minus channel-5 difference) has been added to RAMSDIS Online Experimental (ROLEX).    This product was requested for comparison to the equivalent channel difference product available on AWIPS.

Example of the difference product
(Click on image to enlarge)

An explanation of the channel-4 minus channel-5 product and what it shows is available on ROLEX.  ROLEX can be found on the RAMSDIS Online homepage found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.html

A paper entitled “GOES Derived Product Imagery: Statistical comparison to radiosonde observations and use in forecasting severe convection along a dryline” has been written and is currently undergoing internal review.  It will then be sent to Weather and Forecasting.

The GOES Autoestimator rainfall estimation product was added.  This product was added in preparation for upcoming GOES Assessment Activities.

Hillger, Campbell, Dostalek

Temporal Variation in Vapor Radiances:  Two GOES Sounder channels are being used to examine the temporal variation of water vapor in the middle to lower troposphere.  Synoptic scale instabilities due to a relative warming or cooling aloft are observed.  Synoptic scale dynamic features such as jet streaks or large scale gravity waves are apparent in the vapor radiance field. A brief description can be found online (http://cassiopeia.cira.colostate.edu).

A Web page has been created (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/cal_val/noisebit.htm) to show the effect of bit depth (10-bit vs. 8-bit) on GOES imagery. The effects of reduced-bit (from 10-bit to 8-bit) imagery on noise in GOES images for channel-2, 4, and 5 and on two examples of image products (including the fog product) derived from GOES imagery are described.  Results indicate that existing noise for channel-4 and 5 images (and derived image products) is increased by about 10% (and the signal-to-noise is reduced by 10%) by the reduction from 10-bit to 8-bit precision for GOES imagery.  This result has implications for product generation on AWIPS where 10-bit GOES data is reduced to 8-bits, resulting in a loss of precision for all products.

Grasso, Hilgendorf

A note entitled “Observations of anvil reflectivity at 3.9 µm as viewed from GOES imagery” has been submitted to Monthly Weather Review.  Research on the use of radar and satellite images for precipitation estimation are listed under the heading “Satellite/Radar.”  This upcoming quarter we plan to begin an investigation into the use of hourly surface observations and 12-hourly upper-air observations to estimate a maximum potential rainfall for convective  storms.  This is the initial step toward developing an algorithm that includes satellite and radar data.

Connell, Combs

Processing of the US climatologies continued on schedule. These included large sector composites for March, April and May 1999 and wind regime composites for February, March and April 1999. Combined monthly products covering 1998 and 1999 were processed for January, February, and March for GOES channels 1 and 4.

Collection of PCGRIDDS – ETA 12 UTC model data continues.  The gridded data  are being used to generate a mean boundary layer (~1000-700 mb) wind speed and a resultant boundary layer wind direction to designate a wind regime for specific AWIPS sites for use in the  monthly satellite CONUS climatologies.  Wind regimes have been determined for February, March, and April 1999.

Full disk water vapor imagery (three hour interval) from GOES-8 has been used to calculate 5-day running averages on pixels warmer than -35 C.  The imagery from July-September 1996, July-November 1997 and June through November 1998 are being examined over the Atlantic basin for trends in dry/moist  periods and their relations to hurricane formation.

(See also:  NWS interaction for an update on the Florida Summer Sea Breeze Satellite Climatology Project, and RMTC interaction for an update on the Costa Rica Satellite Climatology Project)

Grasso

Numerical simulations were used to demonstrate the sensitivity of dryline evolution to changes in soil moisture.  A manuscript was submitted to Monthly Weather Review entitled, “A numerical simulation of dryline sensitivity to soil moisture.”

Weaver, Motta, Zehr, DeMaria

Interaction continues with Hurricane Research Division (HRD) at AOML on use of Tropical RAMSDIS and collaborative research projects.

Zehr, Grasso, Molenar, Weaver

J. Weaver and L. Carey (Research Associate CSU, Dept of Atmospheric Science) continue to work on data from the Fort Collins flood.   A 15-minute accumulating rainfall total, derived from the CSU-CHILL radar, is being matched to a log of E-911 calls.  This comparison will be part of an article on the flood being prepared for Weatherwise Magazine.

Evaluation has begun on an empirical method for predicting the 24-hour intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes.  This is a new version of the technique which was initially developed in 1992 by R. Zehr and R. Phillips.  It combines qualitative input based on animated GOES imagery with quantitative information on vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature from operational models.  It is being run routinely each day for Eastern Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones with the assistance of T. Kimberlain, Colorado State University graduate student.

Continued cooperative work with Dr. Gray’s project includes participation in project meetings, data management consultations,  real-time tropical weather discussions, and class lectures.

DeMaria, Dostalek, Motta, Molenar, Weaver, Bikos, Zajac

Tallahassee Summer Sea Breeze Climatology project:  Data collection and archival focusing on the GOES-8 1 km  visible imagery and 4 km 3.9 um and 10.7 um imagery was initiated on June 1 and will continue through August 31.  This is part of a collaborative project between Ken Gould, NWS Tallahassee, Florida, and CIRA and was initiated in 1995.  The project has been tailored to stratify the satellite imagery by boundary layer wind regimes that essentially show the effects of wind speed and direction on the strength of convective development along the sea breeze fronts.  In the past the imagery has been averaged and the results qualitative.  This year we are converting the analysis to look at cloud frequencies and take a quantitative approach.  Before we can run the analysis, image navigation checks for August have to be finished.  The following image (tae_jun.gif) gives a quick look at some of the monthly variability that will show up in the seasonal regime designations.
 
 

M. DeMaria continues his  interaction with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on the development of a Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). The version of SHIPS that is run operationally by the NHC requires a forecast track.  However, the barotropic track model currently used for this input has a northward bias for high latitude tropical cyclones. To make the SHIPS forecasts more reliable, the barotropic model forecast track was replaced with the official forecast track. The change was implemented just prior to Hurricane Adrian in the East Pacific. Methods are being developed to further improve this model by including GOES channel 4 imagery in the prediction. During the 1999 hurricane season so far, SHIPS has shown intensity forecast skill for the two storms which occurred as of June 1999 in the NHC area of responsibility. (Tropical storm Arlene in the Atlantic and Hurricane Adrian in the Eastern North Pacific).

RAMM team participated in a teleconference led by the NWS Office of Meteorology (OM) satellite program to address concerns that Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) initiated by the NWS were not being scheduled as requested.  The entire process was examined and solutions were discussed.  One idea proposed by OM was to have an “auto-trigger” for RSO.  The proposed trigger is the Storm Prediction Center issuance of a moderate risk (or greater) of severe weather.  Upcoming GOES assessment activities were also discussed.

J. Weaver, B. Zajac, and D. Bikos visited NWS forecast offices in Denver, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming to discuss a cooperative severe storm research project being conducted in northeast Colorado this spring and summer.  The goal of the project is to collect and study data sets from 2-3 severe thunderstorms.  Topics of interest include the prestorm environment and cloud-top signatures of severe storms. Remote sensor data will include GOES RSO imagery, GOES sounder data, and observations from WSR-88D radars in Denver and Cheyenne and Colorado State University’s CHILL and Pawnee Doppler radars (CHILL has dual-polarization capability).

Daily weather discussion calls to the Lubbock NWSFO were made to coordinate RSO calls for the joint dryline experiment.

Connell

The continuation proposal submitted to National Weather Service Office of Interagency Affairs has been funded.  The proposal aims to expand the RMTC activities to include distribution of high resolution satellite imagery and satellite products to WMO Region III and IV countries through the RAMSDIS and RAMSDIS online programs.  Efforts are underway to identify countries to participate in the project and order PCs and equipment necessary to get the project started.

DeMaria, Molenar, Watson, Dostalek, Weaver, Zehr, Motta, Hillger, Zajac, Hilgendorf, Gosden

M. DeMaria and D. Molenar met with C. Matsumoto of CIRA and two programmers at the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) in Boulder to discuss possible interactions in the development of applications for the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). The FSL personnel are extremely busy with the next few builds and will probably have little time for interaction in the next few months. They agreed to provide lists of available on-line documentation to aid in the establishment of the AWIPS at CIRA. They suggested that we continue to learn about the system in the next few months, but wait until Build 5, which is scheduled to be delivered late this year, before beginning application development. Build 5 should have extended capabilities for the development of user applications.

Loops of Rapid Scan and Super Rapid Scan GOES visible imagery were provided  to The Weather Channel for use in training and on-air promotions. Five tropical cyclone loops, a severe weather case, and a lake effect snow case were included in the examples. A brief description was also provided for each case.

Meetings/Conferences:

B. Motta participated in a NWS/GHCC Workshop on Mesoscale Modeling and Short-term Convective Forecasting in Huntsville, AL, June 29-July 1.

D. Hillger attended the Suomi Atmospheric Radiation Conference in Madison WI June 28 – July 2.  A poster was prepared on “Using the new 1.6 µm channel on NOAA-15 in satellite product development.”  Hillger also met with Tim Schmit about clustering of GOES soundings and with Chris Moeller about MODIS Aircraft Simulator data.

M. DeMaria  represented the RAMM Team at a U.S. Weather Research Program Meeting on a Pacific International Observing Experiment in Boulder, CO on June 28.

J. Weaver attended a CIRA-sponsored, one-day EMergency Manager’s Weather Information Network (EMWIN) Workshop held at the Atmospheric Science Department at Colorado State University the week of June 11.   Basically, EMWIN streams all National Weather Service text products and some graphic files through the GOES satellites to users nationwide (at a 9,600 continuous baud rate).  Emergency managers in many large cities are now using the system which has a total startup cost of about $2,000 plus computer.  Exciting upgrades are expected over the next 1-3 years.  Beginning in late year-2000 EMWIN managers hope to begin rebroadcasting 5-min national WSR-88D Doppler radar data, and after the new generation of GOES is launched, they hope to provide full resolution satellite imagery as well.

B. Zajac attended the 11th International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity in Lake Guntersville, AL from June 8-11, 1999 and  presented a poster entitled “Characteristics of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity in the Contiguous United States from 1995-1997” by B. Zajac, S. Rutledge, and L. Carey.  Interaction with other attendees proved fruitful, the full cloud-to-ground lightning data set from the National Lightning Detection Network (1988-present) was acquired and contacts were developed with researchers from federal agencies, private companies, and nonprofit groups.  These researchers may participate in the development of future VISIT training sessions on lightning for the National Weather Service.

J. Weaver traveled to San Diego for one day to present material on the Fort Collins Flood of 28 July 1997 at the 3rd National Conference and Exposition of the National Hydrological Warning Council, May 12 and 13.  The conference was well attended (more than 300 participants), with a mix of attendees that included about 70% hydrologists, and 30% meteorologists.  About half of the meteorologists were from the private sector.

E. Hilgendorf presented CIRA’s work on the satellite radar overlays at the QPE workshop in Boulder, CO at COMET, April 13-15.  The overlay uses a Java Script algorithm developed by Tom Whittaker of SSEC-UW.

M. DeMaria attended the USWRP science steering committee meeting in Boulder, CO on April 1.

Visitors:

Dr. Peter Black from NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida visited RAMM Team the week of June 18.  Discussions included new experimental products, rapid interval image archive and tropical cyclone research topics.

Hiro Gosden (RAMM-CIRA), Andy Jones (CIRA), and Max Bleiweiss (Army Research Lab) met June 10  to discuss the functionality of RAMSDIS.   Mr. Bleiweiss was interested in getting the satellite information out to the Army field units using systems such as the RAMSDIS.

Marie McCauley and Crystal Miller from the Denver Regional Office of the Inspector General, U.S. Department of Commerce visited CIRA on May 19.  The were gathering information on tropical cyclone research with NOAA and cooperation between government  agencies. M. DeMaria and R. Zehr provided a summary of the tropical cyclone research at CIRA, and interactions with other research groups.

James Gurka, the satellite program coordinator for the NWS, visited CIRA on April 16. He met with several of RAMM Team staff members to discuss current research and product development at CIRA, policy on issuing RSO, NWS training programs at CIRA, and quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Frances Holt, Chief of Atmospheric Research and Applications Division, met with RAMM-CIRA members March 31 and April 1.

Mr. Zhao Licheng, Director of the Computer Division at the Satellite Meteorology Center in Beijing, China,  departed CIRA after a 7-month stay.  While at CIRA, Mr. Zhao made valuable contributions to the RAMSDIS Online project by converting existing software to Java.  The conversion will enable the addition of advanced features such as data readout and navigation to RAMSDIS Online in the future.

Zajac, Weaver, Dostalek

The RAMM/CSU Northeast Colorado Severe Weather experiment has not yielded any significant data sets of severe thunderstorms as of 24 June.  The experiment will continue until early August.

Zajac, Weaver, Dostalek

The RAMM/CSU Northeast Colorado Severe Weather experiment has not yielded any significant data sets of severe thunderstorms as of 24 June.  The experiment will continue until early August.

Weaver, Dostalek

GOES-8 and GOES-10 Imager channels 1-5 as well as surface and upper air data have been archived for five cases on which RSO was called during the 1999 dryline season: 13 April, 09 May, 20 May, 25 May, and 02 June.  These cases are being reviewed and joint work with the Lubbock WSFO begins next quarter.

DeMaria, Knaff, Phillips, Dostalek, Hilgendorf, Motta, Weaver

A set of web pages is under development that present experimental products based on information collected from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) on the NOAA-15 Polar Orbiting Satellite.  Because of the AMSU’s limited horizontal resolution (about 50 km near nadir,  and about 100 km on the limb), the inner core of intense tropical cyclones cannot be fully resolved, however, the data may still provide horizontal and vertical structure information that is not usually available by any other means.  It is intended that these products will be available on the web for several storms at any given time.  The address of this site is http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/tropic/amsustrm.stm

A loop of satellite images and overlaid severe weather observations for the Birmingham tornado event of 1998 will be placed on the web.

A Web page has been created  to show the effect of bit depth (10-bit vs. 8-bit) on GOES imagery. The effects of reduced-bit (from 10-bit to 8-bit) imagery on noise in GOES images for channel-2, 4, and 5 and on two examples of image products (including the fog product) derived from GOES imagery are described.  Results indicate that existing noise for channel-4 and 5 images (and derived image products) is increased by about 10% (and the signal-to-noise is reduced by 10%) by the reduction from 10-bit to 8-bit precision for GOES imagery.  This result has implications for product generation on AWIPS where 10-bit GOES data is reduced to 8-bits, resulting in a loss of precision for all products.  The address is: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/cal_val/noisebit.htm

A web site describing a CD-ROM archive of the rapid scan and super rapid scan cases from the 1998 hurricane season can be found at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/troparch.htm

An overview of the Fort Collins flash flood of 28 July 1997 by J. Weaver can be found on the CIRA home page by going to the web site http://www.cira.colostate.edu, then choosing “Flash Flood Lab” from the categories on the left.

Phillips, Weaver, Zehr, Watson

McIDAS-formatted GOES-8 and GOES-10 imagery covering the May 3, 1999 tornadic outbreak in Oklahoma and Kansas have been added to the CIRA-RAMM Team’s virtual laboratory archive for public access via the Internet.  Data from all Imager channels, as well as Sounder imagery, is available from both satellites in their normal 15-minute interval image scanning mode. 

Grasso

The on-line, training and discussion effort known as the “Satellite Interpretation Discussion” continues to be well received by the user community and continues as a regular activity of the RAMMT.  To review  recent discussions, you can visit  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/archive.html

Molenar, Connell, Dostalek, Gosden, Smith, Hillger

An updated version of tropical RAMSDIS has been prepared for the Hurricane Research Division.  New products including SST images and SSMI images which match movable floating image loops have been added.  To improve the systems performance, the software has been updated to take advantage of some of the new commands available in McIDAS that will minimize both Internet usage and local disk input/output.  In addition to software upgrades, a faster computer system will serve as the platform for the 1999 hurricane season.

Several new products have been developed for evaluation as applications to support forecasting.  They will be implemented on Tropical RAMSDIS, SAB RAMSDIS or a comparable system for testing during the 1999 hurricane season.  1) A 24-hr average water vapor image animation over a large GOES-East area highlights persistent features, with diurnal and short term variability removed.  2) A similar product with averaging done in motion relative coordinates over 6-hr with 4 km resolution GOES IR gives an alternate view of hurricane structure changes.  3) A cloud clearing routine is run daily with nighttime 3.9 micrometer images, and then again with the daily images over a 7-day period, produces a sea-surface temperature product which can be animated to show ocean feature motions in the absence of extensive cloud cover.

The latest RAMSDIS Upgrade is at a testing stage.  It will be deployed at the end of the summer.

An Intranet Web page was created with information pertaining to RAMSDIS.

Watson

As a result of several requests from Mexican nationals, the Mexico fire detection products have been reinstated on Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System (RAMSDIS) On-Line:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.html

A new product has been added to RAMSDIS Online Experimental (ROLEX).  The product is the GOES longwave infrared difference (channel-4 minus channel-5 difference).  This product was requested for comparison to the equivalent channel difference product available on AWIPS.  An explanation of the product and what it shows is available on ROLEX.  ROLEX can be found on the RAMSDIS Online homepage at the above address.

Loops of visible, 3.9 um, 6.7 um, and 10.7 um imagery over Costa Rica, Central America and the Caribbean, and South America can be found at:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/cos.html
This effort results from interaction between the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere and the Regional Meteorological Training Center in Costa Rica.

Motta, Bikos, Zajac

The VISIT, LTO session was revised to include model output at 900 mb and 850 mb and GOES visible imagery for the following morning and afternoon.

24 distance-learning sessions covering three different topics were scheduled, conducted, and surveyed for feedback.

A virtual training module was developed with the assistance of R. Phillips and B. Motta.  It is scheduled for remote presentation to the NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch in July. The topic is satellite applications for tropical cyclone satellite analysis, with emphasis on new products and analysis procedures.  It includes discussion and illustrations on the use of GOES, SSMI, AMSU, scatterometer, and TRMM data.

The first VISIT training session on lightning entitled “Characteristics of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity in the Contiguous United States from 1995-1997” has been developed and is now being tested within the VISIT group.  The session describes and discusses spatial, annual, and diurnal variations in cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Weaver, Dostalek, Hillger, Molenar, Zehr, DeMaria, Phillips

M. DeMaria presented a lecture on NHC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Models on May 20 at a COMET Numerical Weather Prediction Class.

Several RAMMT and CIRA  members gave presentations at the COMET-sponsored Satellite Meteorology course in Boulder, April 19 through 23: M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, J. Weaver, J. Dostalek, D. Watson, T. Smith, and B. Motta.

Weaver

J. Weaver’s work with the Poudre School District to try to design curriculum-based science units on natural disasters such as tornadoes, floods, blizzards, etc continues.  The plan is to fit severe weather awareness materials and training into pre-existing teaching modules.  Grades 7 and 10 are the current focus, with Grade 1 to follow.

J. Weaver continues as the NOAA representative on the City of Fort Collins’ Project Impact steering committee.  Project Impact is a FEMA-funded effort which provides “seed money” to several cities  in each state to develop innovative ideas for disaster mitigation.  Weaver’s thrust is aimed at getting FEMA to think of weather  information as a potential mitigation tool.

J. Weaver presented a talk entitled “Recognition of a Disaster as a Component of Flash Flood Response” to a group of northeast Colorado insurance adjusters.

J. Weaver presented a talk on severe weather to about 110 employees of the Kodak Corp. at their plant in Windsor, Colorado.  Emphasis was on safety issues, and included some of the recently revised safety rules.  One segment included improved forecasts and warnings through modern technology (e.g., satellite, radar, etc).  There were many questions concerning satellite meteorology and the EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) data system that has been developed by the National Weather Service.

At the request of the City of Fort Collins’ Office of Emergency Management, J. Weaver helped out at the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) during the recent flooding event.   The request was for “tactical weather support,” which turned out to be simply supplying nowcast information to various city department managers such as the city and county Emergency Managers (EMs), Streets, Stormwater Utilities, Police, etc.  The event resulted in moderate-serious flooding and was eventually rated a “10-year” event.  The EOC was active from 12:00 noon to 11:00 p.m. on Friday, April 30.  The curtailing of operations at the EOC was dictated by satellite information.

Connell

As part of an ongoing satellite climatology effort with the Regional Meteorological Training Center, satellite imagery (all five GOES-8 imager channels) for March, April, and May 1999 were sent to Costa Rica.  The imagery are being used to generate cloud frequency composites to help address seasonal and topographical precipitation variations across the country.  The imagery are also being used in conjunction with model output for student projects such as seasonal tracking of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

An example of the satellite composite/climatology work being done in Costa Rica can be seen at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/picoday/990517/990517.html

Fryer

Given:

In early April, C. Vaughn instructed forecasters at Key West, FL on how to use their new RAMSDIS system.  Two floater loops were set for their use in tracking tropical cyclones during the upcoming hurricane season.

Received:

B. Zajac attended the COMET Satellite Meteorology class,  April 19 through 23.

Fryer

Published:

Alfaro, R., W. Fernandez, and B. Connell, 1999: Detection of the forest fires of April 1997 in Guanacaste, Costa Rica, using GOES-8 images.  Int. J. Remote Sensing, 20:6, 1189-1195.

DeMaria, M., 1999: Contribution to Tropical Cyclone-related NWP products and their guidance.  A. Radford (ed.), World Meteorological Organization, in press.

DeMaria, M. and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins. Weather and Forecasting, 14, 326-337, in press.

Hillger, D.W., 1999: GOES Imager and Sounder calibration, scaling, and image quality.  NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 93, (June), 34 pp.

Hillger, D.W., 1999:  Using the new 1.6 µm channel on NOAA-15 in satellite product development. 10th Conference on Atmospheric Radiation, June 28-July 2, Madison, WI, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 193-196.

Knaff, J.A, and C.W. Landsea, 1999: Application of the climatology and persistence ENSO forecast model. Experimental Long Lead Forecast Bulletin, No. 2.

Weaver, J.F., 1999: Chapter 23: Windstorms associated with extratropical cyclones. Storms, Pielke, R.A., Jr., and Pielke, R.A., Sr., (editors), Routledge Limited, United Kingdom, in press.

Accepted:

Campbell, G.G., 1999: Practical satellite cloud heights from shadows.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Campbell, G.G. and J.F.W. Purdom, 1999:  Asynchronous stereo height and motion retrieval from satellite observations. J. of Atmos. and Oceanic Technology.

Chase, T.N., R.A. Pielke, J.A. Knaff, T.G.G. Kittel, J.L. Eastman, 1999: A comparison of Regional Trends in 1979-1997 depth-averaged tropospheric temperatures.  Int. J. Climatol.

Landsea, C.W., R.A. Pielke, Jr., A.M. Mestas-Nunez, and J.A. Knaff, 1999:  Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic change. Climate Change.

Submitted:

Grasso, L.D., 1999: The dependence of dryline formation on soil moisture.  Mon Wea. Rev.

Grasso, L.D., 1999: The differentiation between grid spacing and resolution and their application to numerical modeling.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Grasso, L.D., 1999: A numerical simulation of dryline sensitivity to soil moisture. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Hilgendorf, E.R., and L.D. Grasso, 1999: Observations of anvil reflectivity at 3.9 um using GOES imagery.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Landsea, C.W., and J.A. Knaff, 1999:  How much skill was there in forecasting the great 1997-98 El Nino?, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Pielke, R.A., T.N. Chase, T.G.F. Kittel, J.A. Knaff, and J. Eastman, 1999: Analysis of 200 mb wind and 1000-200 mb depth-averaged temperature trends for the period 1958-1997. J. Geophysical Research.

Weaver, J.F., J.F. Dostalek, B.C. Motta, and J.F.W. Purdom, 1999:  Severe thunderstorms on 31 May 1996: A satellite training case.  National Weather Digest.

Zajac, B.A. and S. A. Rutledge, 1999:  Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activity in the contiguous United States from 1995-1997.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

Fryer

H. Gosden presented a two-part training and information session to the RAMM team on June 7.   The first part described the implementation of an Intranet Web site at RAMMT.  The site will contain information pertinent to the RAMM Team and will be utilized to provide information internally. The second part of the talk provided information on the last two RAMSDIS upgrades and the impact they had on changing  programming techniques.  An Intranet Web Site with the contents of this talk was made available to the RAMM team.

June 2, E. Hilgendorf presented a talk to the RAMMT entitled “The reflective properties of thunderstorm anvils as viewed using GOES-8 and GOES-10.”

M. DeMaria gave two presentations at the GOES-L Launch Education Workshop, Cape Canaveral, FL on May 15: “The Use of GOES Imagery for Research and Applications” and “Tropical Cyclone Applications of GOES Data.”

May 13, M. DeMaria spoke at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL on “Tropical Cyclone Applications of Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) Data from NOAA-15.

Molenar, Gosden

One 18Gb Hard Drive was added to the HP-J210 for use with the AWIPS.  Two more 18Gb Hard Drives will be added, one for the HP-J210 and the other for the J280

The latest security and y2k patches have been installed on all RAMM Team HP Workstations.  In addition, several new applications have been installed to support analysis of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data.

CIRA network upgrade plans have been coordinated with the ground station.  The CIRA and Solar House 2 buildings will be upgraded to support interal LAN speeds of 100 MB/S in conjunction with the upgrade of the connection to main campus.

Watson, Smith

A MCIDAS 7.5 system has been made available to the Meteorological Staff for testing of locally developed programs, this system is fully Y2K compliant and ADDE compatible

A MCIDAS system is being configured to display Rapid Scan Operation data in real-time.

DeMaria, Molenar, Fryer, Grasso, Phillips

In mid-May, M. DeMaria was appointed as an affiliate faculty in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.

Gosden, Smith, Watson, Molenar

Several RAMMT systems have been upgraded to provide faster processing and more storage.

T. Smith developed a program for displaying data for use on the RSO RAMSDIS

A program for changing the location of the floater sector for use on the RSO RAMSDIS has been developed.  Most components of the Unidata NOAAPORT realtime datafeed are now available for viewing with the data display software from the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) D2D display software on the RAMM Team HP workstations.  The NOAAPORT dataset includes gridded data, model graphics, surface and upper air data.   With assistance from Kevin Schrab of the National Weather Service (NWS) Western Region Headquarters, satellite data from the local CIRA ground station were manually converted to AWIPS format and displayed on the workstation.  A full ingest, including satellite and NIDS radar, will be implemented once new hardware has been received.

Two additional HP workstations have been ordered to support VISIT case study development, real-time AWIPS  capabilities and future AWIPS development efforts.

Several new workstations have been ordered to upgrade staff computers and servers.  The old workstations will be used to upgrade field lab RAMSDIS machines.

Fryer

AMS:  American Meteorological Society

AMSU:  Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

AOML:  Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

ARAD:  Atmospheric Research and Applications Division

AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

CONUS: Continental U.S.

CSU:  Colorado State University

EMWIN:  Emergency Manager’s Weather Information Network

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency

FSL: Forecast Systems Laboratory

FTP: File Transfer Protocol

GHCC:  Global Hydrology and Climate Center

GIF: Graphics Interchange Format

GINI: GOES Ingest NOAA-port Interface

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

GRID:  Gridded Data (McIDAS file type)

HRD:  Hurricane Research Division

HTML: Hypertext Markup Language

IR: Infrared

ISTPDS:  Integrated Sensor Training Professional Development Series

LDAD: Local Data Acquisition and Dissemination

LTO: Low Level Thunderstorm Outflow

LUT: Look Up Table

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

NASA:  National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCEP: National Center for Environmental Prediction

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

NHC: National Hurricane Center

NOAA:  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

NWS: National Weather Service

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

OM:  Office of Meteorology

OPTORA:  Operating Plans and Tasks for the Office of Research and Applications

ORA:  Office of Research and Applications

PCGRIDDS: Personal Computer Based Gridded Interactive Display and Diagnostic System

PCI:  Principal Component Imagery

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

POP: Product Oversight Panel

PRC:  Peoples Republic of China

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

RAMS:  Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite Demonstration and Interpretation System

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

ROLEX: RAMSDIS Online Experimental

SHIPS:  Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

SMC: Satellite Meteorology Center (Beijing, PRC)

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

SSEC: Space Science and Engineering Center (University of Wisconsin)

TAC: Technical Advisory Committee

TOVS: TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

UTC:  Coordinated Universal Time

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

WMO: World Meteorological Organization

WV:  Water Vapor

Y2K: Year 2000