Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

A Wea. Forecasting manuscript entitled, “Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003″ by Lindsey, D.T., and M.J. Bunkers (NW, Rapid City) is currently in press.

An article titled, “Central Colorado’s Severe Downslope Windstorms” by J. F. Weaver was written for the Colorado Climate Center’s semi-annual magazine, Colorado Climate. The article is currently in press.

“Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting.

“Some Frequently Overlooked Visual Severe Thunderstorm Characteristics observed on GOES Imagery – a Topic for Future Research” by John F. Weaver and Dan Lindsey appears in the June 2004 issue of Monthly Weather Review.

PDF versions of both papers can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.html

D. Lindsey developed a satellite interpretation discussion (SID) entitled “A Satellite Perspective of Tornado-Producing Cells associated with Hurricane Ivan.” Hurricane Ivan made landfall in the US on 15 September and spawned over 100 tornadoes in the eastern and southeastern portions of the country, resulting in at least 8 fatalities. Visible and infrared data from GOES-12 was analyzed, and it was found that many of these tropical storm induced tornadoes were associated with overshooting tops and minima in local cloud top temperatures. The SID page can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/picoday/040922/040922.html

The analysis of cases where satellite imagery was key in showing returning moisture prior to a severe convective event is nearly complete. The results of this study will be documented in both VISIT training, and as a possible submission to Weather and Forecasting.

All severe weather-related, web-based VISIT teletraining sessions now have audio versions available (see VISIT category)

A project to expand the STIPS model formulation to the Southern Hemisphere and North Indian Ocean has been funded by the Office of Naval Research. As part of this project a purely statistical, 5-day, tropical cyclone intensity prediction scheme for the Indian Ocean was developed and supplied to the Naval Research Laboratory. This scheme will be implemented in the operational suite of products at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at the next ATCF systems Upgrade.

A manuscript entitled, “ A note on the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetric tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU” will be published in the October 2004 issue of Monthly Weather Review (pages 2503-2510). The paper discusses composite analyses that show as vertical wind shear increases the hurricane’s warm core structure and associated winds become shallower.

An unintentional feature of the Monte Carlo wind probability algorithm that did not allow for hurricane force winds when the radius of 64-kt winds was less than the climatological radius of maximum winds was noticed during Hurricane Alex, which had very small and asymmetric 64-kt wind radii. This inconsistency was rectified and implemented into the operational version of the code. Similar changes were made to the wind radii CLIPER code on the automated tropical cyclone forecast system at NHC and JTWC.

The inland decay model developed by Kaplan and DeMaria (1994, 1999), which is utilized in both the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction, and the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Schemes has been modified to better estimate inland decay over tropical islands and peninsulas. The current inland decay model over-estimates the amount of inland decay over these topographical features. To rectify this problem the inland decay is weighted by the fraction of land that is within a specified radius of the tropical cyclone center. Our goal was to develop an improved version of the inland decay model that improves the island wind decay while not degrading results for other cases. For this work, islands are considered landfalls in which the storm emerges back over the ocean in less than 48 hours, inland cases are those storms that made landfall and stayed inland for 48 hours or more. It was found that both inland and island decay can be improved using this fractional land approach. Historical data (Atlantic basin, 1967-2003) shows that the root mean square errors as a function of the radius of influence are minimized near 110 km (or about 1 degree of latitude/ twice the climatological radius of maximum wind for a typical hurricane) for the inland cases, as shown in Figure 1. While better performance over islands and peninsulas can be achieved using larger radii, we also wanted to create the best overall inland decay model and thus use the 110 km radius to calculate the fraction of land. Figure 2 illustrates the differences between the current formulation of the inland decay and the newer version, which is based on the fractional land coverage (r=110 km). A journal note detailing this work is being prepared.

Figure 1: The root mean square error (kt) calculated from the differences between the observed tropical cyclone intensity and the value estimated from the fractional land formulation of the inland decay model as a function of radius used to estimate the fraction of land covered by the tropical cyclone.

Click on figures to enlarge.

Figure 2: Scatter plots showing the observed tropical cyclone intensity vs. the tropical cyclone intensity estimated by the original Kaplan and DeMaria (1994,1999) inland decay model (left) and the fraction of land formulation of the inland decay model using r=110 km. Shown are all cases when a tropical cyclone hit land (1967-2003), Inland cases, and Island cases. See text for the description of island and inland cases.

A paper entitled, “Effects of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM” by M. Lonfat, S. Chen, J. Knaff, and F. Marks was submitted to the Journal of Atmospheric Science for review. The paper discusses the asymmetries of tropical cyclone rainfall with respect to motion and the 200 to 850 hPa vertical wind shear. Results show that the effects of storm motion and vertical wind shear combine to explain much of the storm-to-storm variability of rainfall asymmetries. It is hoped that the relationships will improve both forecasting and modeling of tropical cyclone related rainfall.

The collection of several datasets necessary for the creation of satellite tropical cyclone wind fields has been automated. The collection of Quikscat wind fields and IR imagery is triggered by the advisory information available from the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system at both the National Hurricane center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, providing global tropical cyclone positions. 4km Mercator remaps of IR imagery comes from GOES 9, 10, 12, and Meteosat 5 and 7, Quikscat comes from NESDIS MCIDAS servers. The collection of AMSU based wind retrievals and GOES cloud track winds will be accomplished next quarter. This process will also automate the collection of IR imagery in the CIRA/NESDIS tropical cyclone IR archive.

The process of collecting real-time water vapor imagery for the GOES-based, PSDI-funded tropical cyclone formation product has been automated on the machines at CIRA and at NESDIS/SSD. Data are 16km Mercator remaps of the GOES-12, full disk imagery. This will enable the transition of this product to SSD operations for testing.

Code which converts Global Forecast System (GFS) model analyses from grib format to a packed ASCII format is now running on a NESDIS operational computer. The packed ASCII format of the GFS data is used in subsequent programs for tropical cyclone research, and is one of the final steps in the transition of the experimental tropical cyclone genesis parameter to NESDIS operations.

J. Knaff traveled to Hawaii to attend a two-day mini conference sponsored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to aid in communication between forecasters and researchers with the goal to improve operational transition of research results. While in Hawaii, J. Knaff also attended the western American Geophysical Union special session on western Pacific tropical cyclones, and made a visit to the central Pacific Hurricane Center to discuss the tropical cyclone formation work that is being transitioned to NESDIS/SSD.

Two papers “The tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) techniques, Parts I and II” have been revised for Weather and Forecasting.

As part of a Joint Hurricane test bed Project, a password protected web site was established at CIRA to display real-time experimental tropical cyclone strike probabilities. This web site will be viewed by forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and a selected set of representatives from coastal National Weather Service Forecast Offices and emergency management offices during the 2004 hurricane season. The web site will display probabilities of 34, 50 and 64 knot winds at 0-120 hours for all tropical cyclone basins in the northern hemisphere from a program developed by RAMM Branch. It is anticipated that several new operational products will be generated following the evaluation in 2004.

Upgrades have been made to the Monte Carlo Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability web page to reflect changes made to the product for the 2004 hurricane season. In addition to the Atlantic basin covered last season, probability forecasts are now available for the Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific basins and are updated in near real-time. An archive of past forecasts (beginning mid-season 2003) is also available on the password-protected website.

Software which converts GFS model data to a packed ASCII format was sent to the National Hurricane Center for use in tropical cyclone research.

J. Weaver, D. Lindsey and D. Bikos are working on a new VISIT session which deals with the use of satellite imagery for winter weather forecasting. The new training session will include several aspects of utilizing the satellite data in forecasting/nowcasting wintertime synoptic systems. It will look at identifying mesoscale regions of extratropical cyclones locally favorable for heavy snow, mesoscale banding, and the snow versus liquid precipitation problem. All seven case studies have now been completed. The team is now working with SOOs at various NWS forecast offices to review the first draft of the session.

A two-dimensional model obtained from Vic Ooyama (formerly of the Hurricane Research Division) is being modified for use in the study of mid-latitude fronts. After initial testing last quarter, improvements to the code modifications are being made.

An article entitled, “An Unusually Heavy Snowfall in North-central Colorado – or Odd Things that Happen during Severe Droughts” by J. F. Weaver was written for CIRA’s semi-annual magazine. The article is currently in press.

A manuscript entitled “Fire Detection using GOES-11 Rapid Scan Imagery” by J. Weaver, D. Bikos, D. Lindsey, C Schmidt and E. Prins appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting . A PDF version of this paper can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.html

The manuscript “Noteworthy Aspects of a Severe Left Moving Thunderstorm of 25 May 1999” by J. Dostalek, J. Weaver and L. Phillips (NWS/LBB) appears in the June 2004 issue of Weather and Forecasting. A PDF version of this paper can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.html

Software for the P-3 demonstration project was provided to HRD. Testing of this software should occur at the end of this quarter or at the beginning of next quarter.

The transition to a new 64-bit single processor machine has begun. As a first test, the 8 May 2003 severe weather simulation was set up with a total of three grids. Previously, the third grid had horizontal grid spacing of 4 km due to RAM limitation on the 32-bit machines. Now, the third grid has horizontal grid spacing of 2 km while the horizontal extent of the domain remains unchanged. Smaller grid spacing allows for not only improved resolution of convective triggering, but also such grid spacing match the approximate GOESR-ABI footprint. Further, more vertical levels have been added to improve the resolution of geometrically thin clouds in the upper troposphere; in particular, vertical grid spacing no longer exceeds 500 m anywhere in the model domain. During this first test, 5.6 Gbytes of RAM were successfully allocated after some compiler modifications. Synthesized GOESR-ABI 10.35 µm images are shown in Figures 1 and 2.

Figure 1. GOES simulated 10.7 µm image produced from RAMS model output for storms which occurred on 8 May 2003.

Click on figures to enlarge.

Figure 2. GOES simulated 10.7 µm image produced from RAMS model output for storms which occurred on 8 May 2003. Image is three hours after that shown in figure 1.

Several basic image manipulation routines have been written to analyze AIRS (and other) data in the McIDAS 2004 ADDE (Abstract Data Distribution Environment). These routines allow hyper-spectral AIRS (and other multi-spectral) images to be read, manipulated, and re-written; which involves reading the image directory, navigation, calibration, and auxiliary blocks, as well as image line prefixes. Access to most of these is needed for example to rotate an (upside-down) ascending-orbit AIRS (or AVHRR or MODIS) image so that north appears at the top of the image (right side-up) without changing the basic image data or its resolution through re-mapping. Other applications include manipulation of AIRS data by Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis to identify significant signal variance among the thousands of hyper-spectral bands.

A McIDAS routine has been written that will plot the hyper-spectral AIRS values (in various calibration units, e.g. temperature) for selected pixels in a displayed image.  Both the range of bands and the number of pixels to plot can be selected interactively, with the display in wavelength space.

After much delay, a triad of new GOES Sounder products has been added to RAMSDIS Online under the experimental section at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/ROLEX.html. The new products are the last three Sounder products in the list, consisting of composites of Sounder sectors from each of GOES-east and GOES-west combined into one image and available in image loops for each satellite. The newest products are: a band-8 composite product (un-enhanced); a skin-temperature product with a rainbow-color enhancement; and a split-window longwave temperature difference product (with color enhancement intended to show dust areas as red). A longer loop of the temperature difference product is planned for use on the Tropical RAMSDIS.

GOES-8 Visible and Infrared imagery were collected for the Tallahassee Summer Sea Breeze Climatology Project. This is a cooperative effort between the Tallahassee WFO and CIRA. The primary objective is to develop cloud frequency composites that reflect the development of convection along the sea breeze front under various background wind regimes. This was the 9th season of imagery collection.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for June, July and August, 2004.

Processing of wind regime products is on schedule. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for May, June and July 2004 have been completed. Seven year, monthly combined visible products have also been completed for these months.

Using a new fog algorithm, procedures were developed for processing GOES 10 data and surface observations into low cloud composites over the Monterey/San Francisco area. Data was processed and analyzed for June and July, 1999-2003. A website, http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/clim/Monterey/fogms.html, was created to allow forecasters in Monterey to view preliminary results and provide comments.

From results above, an extended abstract entitled, “Exploring the timing of fog formation and dissipation over the San Francisco Bay area using satellite cloud climatologies,” was written for the 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography. A poster describing these results was presented at the AMS satellite meteorology conference in Norfolk, VA on September 21, 2004.

The manuscript entitled, “Microscale Aspects of Rainfall Patterns as Measured by a Local Volunteer Network” by N. Doesken, J. Weaver and M. Osecky has been accepted by National Weather Digest contingent on a number of revisions. N. Doesken ( Colorado Climate Center) continues to work on reviewer suggestions.

An article entitled, “Central Colorado’s Severe Downslope Windstorms” by J. F. Weaver was written for the Colorado Climate Center’s semi-annual magazine, Colorado Climate. The article is currently in press.

Brazil Project:

Nothing new to report this quarter

Japanese Interaction:

Nothing new to report this quarter

MITCH Reconstruction Project:

A method used to retrieve the Meteorological Data from the Family of Services at NESDIS was changed on all the RAMSDIS systems due to the infrastructure changes made at NESDIS. The modifications were also made to the remote RAMSDIS systems at all the international sites.

RMTC Project:

GOES-8 imageryfor June through August 2004 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to study cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for June – August 1997-2004 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

Click on figures to enlarge.

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June – August 1998 – 2004 for Barbados.

A case study on heavy rain produced over the island of St. Lucia by a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough has been completed. Selvin and Horace Burton of the RMTC in Barbados have released the case study ‘St. Lucia Flood October 25-26, 1996’ on CD.

July was a busy month for RMTC visitors. Dr. Vilma Castro from the University of Costa Rica visited CIRA July 6-9. Many research and training topics were discussed during her visit and included a heavy rain episode in Venezuela in December 1999, regional climatologies for Costa Rica and Central America, volcanic ash detection, and the agenda for the next WMO training event to be held in Costa Rica in February 2005. Selvin and Horace Burton, of the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, visited CIRA July 19-20 to collaborate on scientific projects. Preliminary results of cloud frequency trends versus precipitation measurements were discussed.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)

SICA Project:

The project officially ended on December 31, 2001, but a web page displaying satellite precipitation estimates and fire products continues to operate: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html The site continues to be useful as a backup for the imagery when the server in Costa Rica goes down.

J. Knaff was elected to the Administrative Professional Council at Colorado State University. He is a representative for Area 11, College of Engineering.

Conversion of Knaff data archive from Exabyte to DVD is underway.

Firewall and anti-virus software was implemented at CIRA and all the RAMM Branch systems were modified to comply with the new network architecture.

A proposal for hardware money to support the GB/s network upgrade has been submitted to HPCC.

End-of-year review meetings with all NOAA RAMMB staff were completed the week of September 13.

DVD write capabilities were implemented for the WES and WES2 machines.

The transition to Linux was completed with the conversion of Ulysses to a RH WS workstation. It was decided that a support contract would only be maintained for Helene.

The computer network that RAMMB uses is currently being upgraded to run at Gigabit speeds. The network switches have already been upgraded, and network cards in each system are currently being switched out one by one. This upgrade will increase the data transfer speeds of all the systems on the network to ten times the previous speeds.

M. DeMaria gave a seminar at the Tropical Prediction Center on July 15 for the Miami chapter of the American Meteorological Society entitled, ” New Products for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and Intensity Forecasting.”  This seminar was also presented to ORA in Camp Spring, MD on September 1.

On 17 July Don Hillger gave an hour-long presentation to the 22 nd Rocky Mountain Chinese Society of Science and Engineering (RMCSSE) Annual Conference held in Aurora/Denver CO. The presentation consisted of both general NOAA/NESDIS slides provided by Jim Gurka and other slides specifically related to weather satellite history and RAMM Team GOES-R Risk Reduction activities.

Meetings, Conferences, Workshops

J. Dostalek participated in a conference call concerning the upcoming changes in the Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution (OSDPD). Two presentations were given. Richard Barazotto, the head of OSDPD, gave an overview of the changes. Reginald Lawrence, head of OSDPD’s Interactive Processing Branch, discussed in more detail the likely computer changes at OSDPD.

M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, C. Combs, J. Dostalek, R. Zehr, and Manajit Sengupta attended the 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography in Norfolk, VA, September 20 – 24.

J. Dostalek attended the 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography in Norfolk, VA. He presented a poster entitled “Applications of Synthetic GOES-R Observations for Mesoscale Weather Analysis and Forecasting” by J. Dostalek, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria. The poster displayed the work which has been done in creating synthetic GOES-R satellite observations (at 10.7 m m) using CSU’s RAMS model output.

M. DeMaria and D. Hillger participated in the 4th NOAA Hyperspectral Workshop 17-19 August in Madison WI.

D. Hillger participated in the Weather and Environmental Satellites conference, part of the SPIE 49^th Annual Meeting held in Denver CO, making an oral presentation on 3 August 2004 titled “Advance Mesoscale Product Development for GOES-R Operational and Experimental Satellite Observations” by D.W. Hillger, M. DeMaria, and R. Zehr.

AMS: American Meteorological Society

AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment

CG: Cloud to Ground

CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training

CONUS: Continental U.S.

CoRP: Cooperative Research Programs

CSU: Colorado State University

EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency

FTP: File Transfer Protocol

GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan

GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

HRD: Hurricane Research Division

IR: Infrared

JHT: Joint Hurricane Transition

LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System

LES: Lake-Effect Snow

McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System

MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research

NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

NHC: National Hurricane Center

NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NWS: National Weather Service

NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office

OM: Office of Meteorology

ORA: Office of Research and Applications

PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite

POP: Product Oversight Panel

RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team

RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite
Demonstration and Interpretation System

RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center

ROL: RAMSDIS Online

SAB: Satellite Applications Branch

SHIPS: Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme

STIPS: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme

SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center

SOO: Science Operations Officer

SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation

STAR: Office of Satellite Research and Development

STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study

TPC: Tropical Prediction Center

USWRP: United States Weather Research Program

UTC: Universal Time Coordinated

VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training

WMO: World Meteorological Organization

WV: Water Vapor

The GOES-R Inventory database was updated with the new Hurricane Isabel case-study dataset and AIRS dataset for various case-studies.

A new satellite interpretation discussion (SID) concerning the tornadoes associated with Hurricane Ivan can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/picoday/040922/040922.html

A SID that describes a fast, left-moving thunderstorm that occurred in May 2003 can be found at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/PICODAY/030729/030729.html

A request for a proposal for a “baby AWIPS” system has been sent to Northrup Gruman.

A method used to retrieve the Meteorological Data from the Family of Services at NESDIS was changed on all the RAMSDIS systems due to the infrastructure changes made at NESDIS. The modifications were also made to the remote RAMSDIS systems at all the international sites.

An upgrade on the tropical RAMSDIS systems at CIRA and HRD has been completed.  The hardware on both systems was upgraded to new P-IV PCs with 1 GB RAM and running McIDAS-Linux.  The Linux operating system will provide better stability for the data ingest.  Several new products were added this year to bring the total ingest to 38 different products covering the globe.  Many of these products are available on RAMSDIS Online at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/tropical.html 

New applications and data added to the Tropical RAMSDIS include:  1) Real-time radar images from the NWS Doppler network. 2) The high density QuikScat winds can now be accessed from a NESDIS server and displayed as overlays on satellite images. 3) An automated routine was added to display Tropical Prediction Center hurricane forecast positions and intensities.

After much delay, a triad of new GOES Sounder products has been added to RAMSDIS Online under the experimental section at: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/ROLEX.html. The new products are the last three Sounder products in the list, consisting of composites of Sounder sectors from each of GOES-east and GOES-west combined into one image and available in image loops for each satellite.  The newest products are: a band-8 composite (un-enhanced); a skin-temperature product with a rainbow-color enhancement; and a split-window longwave temperature difference (with color enhancement intended to show dust areas as red).  A longer loop of the temperature difference product is planned for use on the Tropical RAMSDIS.

Audio versions of three more VISIT sessions were recorded and are now available for download on the VISIT homepage. These are “ Use of GOES/RSO imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS,” “Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm and GOES Sounder Point Retrievals in AWIPS”, and “QuikSCAT Winds.”

During this quarter 52 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered, 788 students from 339 NWS offices participated.

New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter:

QuikSCAT winds (taught by Dan Lindsey) offices: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qswinds.html

Forecasting convective downburst potential using GOES sounder derived products (taught by Ken Pryor – NESDIS). http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/downburst.html

Modern severe weather parameters (taught by Jeff Craven – NWS Jackson, MS):http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/sevparam.html

Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX): Its uses and limitations (taught by Stephen Jascourt – COMET): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/dgex.html

A first draft of the new teletraining session being developed titled “Utilizing Satellite Imagery for Analysis of Winter Storms” has been completed. We are currently working with several NWS offices that were affected by the case studies shown. After the initial development, we will have a critical review with subject matter experts.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 17, 2004. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

——————————-

Note: Numbers from the Climate Services Professional Development Series are not included in the totals above, the numbers are listed here:

The following bar graph is a compilation of evaluations that are sent to the individual who signed up for each VISIT training session. They are asked to respond with a number ranging from 1 through 5 where 1 means strongly disagree to 5 which means strongly agree. The questions asked are:

1) The session was easy to follow and the objectives were met.

2) The content of the session was appropriate.

3) Teletraining was an appropriate method for presenting the session.

4) The graphics contributed well to my understanding.

5) The instructor provided sufficient interactivity to keep me

involved in the session and test my learning.

6) The instructor explained the material clearly.

7) My knowledge and/or skills increased as a result of this session.

8) The knowledge and/or skills gained through this session are

directly applicable to my job

9) Overall, the session was a good learning experience.

The total number of responses to each question are listed below:

Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:

Boundary Detection:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology:   http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp

Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries:  http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html

Cyclogenesis:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp

Detecting Boundaries:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp

Elevated Mesoscale Ascent:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp

GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html

Lake-effect snow I (basic):  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp

Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced):  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp

Lightning Meteorology I:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp

Lightning Meteorology II:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp

Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp

Mesoscale Anal. of Conv. Wx. using GOES RSO:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp

NDIC:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp

Rapid Scan Operations:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp

Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp

QuikSCAT:  http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp

Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web. The downloadable files can be found by going to the list of teletraining sessions at:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html

then selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing. Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.

On 17 July Don Hillger gave an hour-long presentation to the 22 nd Rocky Mountain Chinese Society of Science and Engineering (RMCSSE) Annual Conference held in Aurora/Denver CO. The presentation consisted of both general NOAA/NESDIS slides provided by Jim Gurka and other slides specifically related to weather satellite history and RAMM Team GOES-R Risk Reduction activities. The presentation was very well received by about 70 attendees, and Dr. Hillger was awarded a plaque in recognition of his “outstanding” presentation.

Three VISITview exercises using GOES satellite Imagery from CIRA and voice via Yahoo messenger were coordinated by the WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team. See:

http://visit.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html

There were participants from the US: CIRA and COMET in Colorado, CIMSS in Wisconsin and NCEP in Washington, DC; as well as outside the US: Antigua, Barbados, Colombia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Peru, and Trinidad. Most of the discussions focused on recent tropical wave activity in the region. New items displayed in August were a blended AMSU/SSMI total precipitable water product and RAOB soundings for the region.

To Accepted, Submitted, and Reviews

Published: 

Combs, C.L., M. DeMaria, W. Blier, and W. Strach, 2004: Exploring the timing of fog formation and dissipation over the San Francisco Bay area using satellite cloud climatologies. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

DeMaria, M., D.W. Hillger, C.D. Barnet, J.P. Dunion, and R.T. DeMaria, 2004: Evaluation of Hyperspectral Infrared Soundings in Tropical Cyclone Environments. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Dostalek, J.F., L.D. Grasso, M. Sengupta, M. DeMaria, 2004: Applications of synthetic GOES-R observations for mesoscale weather analysis and forecasting. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2004: Applications of Simulated GOES-R Observations for Advance Product Development for Mesoscale Weather Forecasting. SPIE Annual Meeting, August 2-6, Denver, CO.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2004: Analysis of Simulated GOES-R Data and Products for Mesoscale Meteorology. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria and R.M. Zehr, 2004: Advance Mesoscale Product Development for GOES-R Using Operational and Experimental Satellite Observations. SPIE Annual Meeting, August 2-6, Denver, CO.

Hillger, D.W. and T.J. Schmit, 2004: Quantization Noise for GOES-R ABI Bands. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Knaff, J.A. , S.A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, J.L. Demuth, 2004:  On the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2503-2510.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, M. DeMaria, 2004: Simulation of Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Observations for Application to Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Zehr, R.M., 2004: Satellite Products and Imagery with Hurricane Isabel. AMS 13 th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, September 20-23, Norfolk, VA.

Accepted: 

Dostalek, J.F., J.F. Weaver, and L. Phillips, 2003:  Noteworthy aspects of a severe left moving thunderstorm of 25 May 1999.  Wea. and Forecasting. 

Grasso, L.D., and T.J. Greenwald, 2003:  Analysis of 10.7 um brightness temperatures of a simulated thunderstorm with two-moment microphysics. Mon. Wea. Review. 

Knaff, J.A. , S.A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, J.L. Demuth, 2004:  A Note on the Influences of Vertical Wind Shear on Symmetric Tropical Cyclone Structure Derived from AMSU.  Mon. Wea. Rev. 

Lindsey, D.T., 2004:  On the motion and interaction between left-and right-moving supercells on 4 May 2003. AMS 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, 4-8 October, 2004

Lindsey, D.T. and M.J. Bunkers, 2004:  Observations of a Severe, Left-Moving Supercell on 4 May 2003.  Wea. and Forecasting. 

Nolan, D., and L.D. Grasso , 2003:  Nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional perturbations to balanced, hurricane-like vortices.  Part II.  Symmetric response and nonlinear simulations.  J. of the Atmospheric Sciences. 

Submitted: 

DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2004:  Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS).  Wea. and Forecasting. 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2004:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest. 

R.R. Ferraro, P. Pellegrino, M. Turk, W. Chen, S. Qui, R.J. Kuligowski, S.J. Kusselson, A. Irving, S.Q. Kidder, J.A. Knaff, 2004:  The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 2: Validation.  Weather and Forecasting.

Kidder, S.Q., S.J. Kusselson, J.A. Knaff, R.R. Ferraro, R.J. Kuligowski, M. Turk, 2004:  The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 1: Description
and Examples.  Weather and Forecasting.

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, 2004:  An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific. Wea. and Forecasting.

Lonfat, M., S.S. Chen, J.A. Knaff, F.D. Marks, Jr., 2004:  Effects of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM.  J. of Atmospheric Sciences.