Tropical Cyclone Ocean Heat Content Graphic Developed: An automatically generated graphic that displays the forecasts tracks of active global tropical cyclones over ocean heat content has been created for discrimination to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and a local tropical cyclone web page display. Heat content was supplied by supplied by G. Goni at NOAA/AOML/POD and tracks are provided by JTWC and NOAA/TPC. An example that is valid 12 UTC 29 September is shown in Figure 1. This work is part of the CIRA contribution to the NASA research to NOAA operations effort. (J. Knaff, CIRA, M. DeMaria, E/RA1, 970-491-8440, knaff@cira.colostate.edu, Mark.DeMaria@noaa.gov) Click on image to enlarge.
Figure 1: The official JTWC forecast track of Typhoon XANGSANE (18W) valid 12 UTC 29 September overlaid on the ocean heat content developed at NOAA/AOML by G. Goni valid at the same time. Units are kJ/cm2.
A paper describing a statistical-parametric tropical cyclone wind radii prediction scheme used at the National Hurricane Center and the DOD Joint Typhoon Warning Center was revised for publication in Weather and Forecasting. See previous quarterly reports for more details on this manuscript. (J. Knaff)
FORTRAN-90 Modules were created to read the GRIB2 versions of the Monte Carlo Hurricane wind speed probabilities, and several of the databases created by the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF). These programs will be used in the development of a program to verify and evaluate these products. (J. Knaff)
A manuscript entitled, “Atlantic Major Hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images,” was submitted to Journal of Climate. Authors include R. Zehr and J. Knaff. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
The manuscript entitled “Evaluation of Long-Term Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts” was accepted for publication in MAP. This was an invited publication for a special issue on tropical cyclones. (J. Knaff)
New image products have been added to the Tropical RAMSDIS workstations. 1) A cloud-cleared 3.9 micrometer image is produced each day with GOES-12 nightime images. The cloud clearing is done by using 30-min interval images and saving only the warmest pixel for each location. The same thing is then done with 5 daily images to derive a 5-day image. A 6-day loop of both the daily and 5-day products are displayed. These products give a high resolution view of sea-surface temperature patterns for analysis of the tropical cyclone environment and cold wakes. 2) A longwave difference image is generated every 6-h using the Meteosat-8 12.0 and 10.8 micrometer channels (Figure 2). This is used to depict Saharan Air Layer (SAL) patterns over the eastern Atlantic. A matching loop of CIRA’s Total Precipitable Water (TPW) is displayed, that depicts associated dryness with the SAL. 3) A calibrated sea-surface temperature image product is now displayed, for the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific tropical cyclone basins. These are updated daily and shown as 5-day loops over areas that match the corresponding large scale image products to facilitate analysis with respect to tropical cyclone locations. (R. Zehr)
Figure 2. Meteosat-8 longwave difference product for Saharan Air Layer analysis.
Figure 3 shows IR images in a common, storm centered format of all Atlantic intense (also termed, “major,” indicating Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or greater.) hurricanes since 1995. There have been 45, including seven in 2005. So far the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season has had 2 Category 3 hurricanes.A manuscript entitled, “Atlantic Major Hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics Based on Best Track, Aircraft, and IR Images,” was submitted to Journal of Climate. The authors are Ray Zehr and John Knaff. (R. Zehr)
Figure 3. Atlantic Major Hurricanes 1995-2005.
Two FORTRAN programs used in displaying the results of tropical cyclone research into the display package GrADS, have been updated to include new contouring options as well as a tropical cyclone track plotting and labeling option. (J. Dostalek)
Collection and cataloging of large-scale water vapor imagery for the western and central N. Pacific from the GMS and MTSAT satellites was conducted for a project to extend a tropical cyclone genesis algorithm to the NWS Pacific region. In addition, complete Best Track information for all tropical cyclones forming in the N. Atlantic, eastern N. Pacific, central N. Pacific, and western N. Pacific through 2005 was collected and preliminary analysis of the climatology of these tropical basins is underway. (A. Schumacher, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
As part of RAMMB Joint Hurricane Testbed projects, a new algorithm for calculating the vertical wind shear for the SHIPS model was implemented in real time at NHC. The SHIPS forecasts with the new shear calculation will be compared to the operational SHIPS forecasts at the end of the 2006 hurricane season (M. DeMaria)
Figure 4. Plot of monthly probabilities of ≥ 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 tropical cyclones forming in the western N. Pacific tropical basin (0-45 N, 90-180 E) based on climatology from 1949-2005 Best Track data.
The Annular Hurricane Index, which uses linear discriminant analysis to compute the probability of a hurricane to become annular within the next 24 hours, has been developed for real-time operational use. Plans to insert the index into the SHIPS model are currently underway and the Annular Hurricane Index is expected to be running real-time along with the SHIPS model in the near future. (A. Schumacher, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
A collection of full resolution (temporal, spectral, and spatial) Meteosat Second Generation data is being collected over the tropical Atlantic 1 June – 1 December for future satellite applications. These are being written to DVD for future use. (J. Knaff)
An automated collection of IR imagery at 1 km, 2 km, and 4 km resolution and visible imagery at 1 km and 0.5 km (MODIS only) continues. At present NOAA Limited Area Coverage (LAC) and High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT), and NASA Moderate Resolution Infrared Spectroradiomenter (MODIS) data are accessed and utilized. This imagery will be utilized to study the effects of increased resolution on tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithms. This data is also being utilized for the development of a GOES-R proxy dataset for use in the CIRA algorithm working group project. (J. Knaff, R. Zehr, D. Watson, M. DeMaria)
A new version of the Tropical RAMSDIS was sent to HRD to upgrade their RAMSDIS. The update includes the latest version of McIDAS and several new features and products including a new longwave difference product and a sea-surface temperature product. (D. Watson)
A presentation discussing current and future satellite capabilities with respect to tropical cyclones was made to the Risk Prediction Initiative, a research consortium put together to examine reinsurance risks. (J. Knaff)
A note discussing the pitfalls of selective consensus forecasting in tropical cyclone track forecasting with personnel from the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey was accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. (J. Knaff)
A “science perspective” discussing issues contained in the recent Science paper Webster et al. (2005) discussing trends in tropical cyclone intensity trends was published in Science. Authors include C. Landsea, B. Harper, K. Hoarau and J. Knaff. (J. Knaff)
A detailed report (29pp) for working group 1.5 of the upcoming International Working Group on Tropical Cyclones – VI entitled “Operational guidance and skill in forecasting structure change.” was written by J. Knaff (Chair). J. Knaff and R. Zehr plan to attend the meeting in 20-30 November 2006 in San Jose Costa Rica. (J. Knaff)
Using temperature and moisture retrievals from the ATOVS (Advanced-TOVS) product suite, along with the GFS 50 mb height field as a boundary condition, the hydrostatic equation was integrated downward to the surface to get the height field as a function of pressure. Using the derived height field (which defines the geostrophic wind), along with the ATOVS temperatures, the quasi-geostrophic omega equation was solved over a mid-latitude cyclone which was located off the West Coast on 19 December 2002. Figure 1 shows the 00 UTC 700-hPa ω field plotted over a GOES-10 infrared image. The solid contours correspond to rising motion, and the dashed contours correspond to sinking motion. The units are μbar s-1. The pattern of vertical motion field appears quite accurate, with rising motion over the cyclone, and sinking motion behind it. Rising motion also exists with another system further out in the Pacific. The vertical motion field, along with other meteorological variables, is stored in a McIDAS GRID file. A McIDAS program was written which takes the output of the ATOVS analysis software and writes a McIDAS GRID file, allowing for easy overlay of the results onto satellite images. (J. Dostalek)
Figure 1. GOES-10 infrared image from 00 UTC 19 December 2002 with 700-hPa quasi-geostrophic ω (μbar s-1) overlaid. The vertical velocity field was derived using ATOVS data.
The trowal (trough of warm air aloft) is a feature of midlatitude cyclones which can be responsible for considerable precipitation. A study is underway which seeks to use satellite imagery in the study of trowals. Seven cases have been chosen, the GOES data for which are currently being subsected and organized. In addition, the difficulty in reading the North American Regional Reanalysis data in McIDAS has been resolved. The data, which are in grib format, can now be read directly by McIDAS routines, allowing for easy overlaying onto satellite imagery. (J. Dostalek)
Two more MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) image loops of blowing dust are shown below as a comparison of the 3-color Rosenfeld dust product versus using Principal Component Image (PCI) and 3-color analysis for the same dust case over Western Africa on 27 March 2006. The Rosenfeld product used MSG bands at 8.7, 10.8, and 12.0 μm, while the PCI product uses the 3.9 μm band as well. [Click on the images for 16-frame loops of each product.] (D. Hillger)
CRTL Click to activate the loops.
Figure 2a: MSG loop over Western Africa on 27 March 2006 from 1330 to 1745 UTC. Image time-interval is 15 minutes. Dust is pink over the land and over a broad area of the ocean.
Figure 2b: Same time sequence and interval as Figure 2a, but using PCI analysis on four MSG infrared bands, three of which are used in the Rosenfeld dust product in Figure 2a. Dust is darker pink over the land and pink over a broad area of the ocean.
A new image product utilizing current GOES-East or West imagery has been created by combining two already-useful GOES image products. Both the Visible Albedo and Shortwave Albedo products generated from GOES imagery are combined with the GOES IR window band (10.7 μm) using three-color techniques to create a single product with capabilities to detect both smoke and fires, capabilities inherited from the albedo products that are input. Both the visible and shortwave albedo products are solar-zenith-angle corrected images, known to show smoke and fire hot spots respectively. This new product has been dubbed the “psychedelic” color product by local users because of its vivid coloring. Interest in the product was shown by recent visitor Davida Street for possible operational use at the Satellite Analysis Branch. [Click on image for a 10-frame loop starting before and ending after the current image with annotations.] (D. Hillger)
Figure 3: Three-color Albedo Product created by combining the GOES-West (GOES-11) Visible Albedo, Shortwave Albedo, and IR Window band (10.7 μm) as the Red, Green, and Blue components respectively. The new product shows both smoke and fires, as seen in this image at 1400 UTC on 18 August 2006. The smoke (red haze) appears best as a strongly-forward-scattered signal immediately after sunrise due to the visible albedo component of the image, but almost completely disappears when the solar zenith angle increases and vertical mixing of the atmosphere takes place with solar heating. Fire hot spots (white) are due to the excessive shortwave radiation in the shortwave “albedo” component, and are confirmed by temporal continuity of those spots in the image loop. There is also color discrimination between low-level water/stratus clouds (white to light green) and high-level ice/cirrus cloud (magenta) due to the shortwave albedo component. The product is indeterminate during the transition between day and night and is most useful during the day, although it can be generated day and night with appropriate substitute imagery at night in lieu of the visible band.
The MSG image archive at CIRA is now available for McIDAS users through the development of software to convert the existing XPIF format files into McIDAS AREA files. Currently the software is working but has not yet been formalized for general use, which is the plan. (D. Hillger)
Due to change in satellites from GOES 10 to GOES 11, July marks the beginning of GOES 11 data collection for the cloud climatology project. Only the last week of June was missed due to the switch. The switch required updates in collection, code and processing texts. These have been successfully completed. (C. Combs)
Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for April, May, June, July and August 2006. We are now back on schedule. (C. Combs)
Processing of wind regime cloud climatology products continues. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for April, May, June and July 2006 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for May and June. April’s combined products were set aside due to lack of time and disc space, and will be completed next quarter. (C. Combs)
Work continues on the development of the experimental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index. It is currently running in real-time on the web. D. Lindsey traveled to Washington D.C. and talked to the Satellite Analysis Branch about the product; they indicated that this product would be a useful tool in diagnosing heavy rain potential from MCSs. An example of the MCS Index is provided in Figure 4 below. (D. Lindsey, I. Jirak)
Figure 4. An example of the MCS Index from June 6, 2006.
Development continues on a severe weather nowcasting product which makes use of thunderstorm-top ice crystal size information. A collaborative effort is underway with Dr. Andy Heymsfield (NCAR/MMM) to use a microphysics parcel model to better understand the relationship between updraft strength and cloud-top ice crystal size. (D. Lindsey)
A journal article has been prepared and will soon be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology: “An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES,” by D. Lindsey and L. Grasso (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso).
D. Hillger participated in an all-day GOES-13 Contingency Operational Readiness Review (CORR) WebX/teleconference on 28 August. Many GOES-13 systems appear to be ready in case there is an emergency need to put GOES-13 into service prior to final checkout by NASA. It was also good to see that the NOAA Science Tests have been given a total of three weeks, now in December, at the end of the Post Launch Tests (PLT) to provide special GOES-13 imagery and data to NOAA scientists. See the GOES-13 Science Test page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/) for the test schedule. (D. Hillger)
For many days in early September, smoke from forest/range fires has covered the skies of most of the northwestern and north central U.S. The smoke is easily captured in GOES-west (GOES-11) visible (0.7 μm) imagery in the morning hours due low solar zenith angle and to the highly-forward-scattering properties of fine-particle smoke. The first (top) GOES-west image in Figure 1, from a couple hours after sunrise (1330 UTC), shows heavy smoke covering most of the north central U.S. on 6 September 2006. However, the very obvious smoke in the early morning hours is hardly noticeable in the second (bottom) GOES-west image from near local noon (1945 UTC). In contrast to the GOES visible image at local noon in Figure 1, the MODIS blue-band visible (0.47 μm) image in Figure 2 at 1940 UTC (within five minutes of the GOES image) shows remnants of smoke, with the thickest patches in Montana and Minnesota that are otherwise almost invisible in the red-band visible (0.7 μm) band. The blue-band visible, with better atmospheric scattering detection, is not available on current GOES, but will be available on the next-generation GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). (D. Hillger)
Figure 1: GOES visible (0.7 μm) images from 1330 UTC (top: about 2 hours after local sunrise) and 1945 UTC (bottom: approximately local noon) showing smoke over the north central U.S. on 6 September 2006. The very obvious smoke in the early morning hours is hardly noticeable at local noon as the solar zenith angle increases. [Click on the image for a loop of GOES visible images extending from local sunrise to local noon, to see the smoke “disappear”.]
Figure 2: MODIS imagery for 6 September 2006 at 1940 UTC (within 5 minutes of the second frame in Figure 1. On top is the MODIS blue-band visible, and on bottom is a true-color (RGB) image created from the MODIS red (0.65 μm), green (0.55 μm), and blue (0.47 μm) bands. Note that the MODIS blue-band visible reveals patches of smoke at local noon much better than the GOES visible (red, 0.7 μm) image in Figure 1.
The latest version of software for Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis has been sent to Matthew Lazzara at UW/CIMSS. The code will be used to study fog in the Antarctic using MODIS data. This study, initiated a few years ago, is being pursued as research towards a PhD for Mr. Lazzara. (D. Hillger)
Software to generate three-color albedo images has been sent to Greg Galina and Davida Streett at the NESIDS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). The software, which has been used at CIRA for some time, will be tested at SAB for application to smoke and fire detection with GOES imagery, hopefully ending up in routine operations in the future. (D. Hillger)
A power point presentation was prepared in response to a request by Mitch Goldberg for information demonstrating uses of the HES. The presentation is entitled “The Need for the HES for Severe Weather Analysis.” The purpose of the presentation is to “save the HES” by showing the utility of such an instrument for a simulated severe weather event, and was given by M. DeMaria at a recent GOES-R meeting. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, J. Dostalek, Justin Sieglaff (SSEC), M. Sengupta, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria).
Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery for the 8 May 2003 severe weather case was sent to Iliana Genkova of SSEC. She will use the synthetic imagery to test a “water vapor derived winds” algorithm. (L. Grasso).
Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery for hurricane Lili of 2 October 2002 is being generated. This imagery will be sent to Iliana Genkova of SSEC. She will use the synthetic imagery to run a water vapor derived winds algorithm. (L. Grasso)
A radiative transfer model was used to simulate GOES-R brightness temperatures in clear-sky conditions at 10.35 µm and 12.3 µm. The longwave brightness temperature difference responds to variations in temperature and moisture profiles. Figure 3 below shows two temperature and three moisture profiles, and the imbedded table shows the resulting longwave temperature difference. Note that larger differences are associated with more unstable lapse rates and larger moisture contents (both near the surface and at mid-levels). Figure 4 below shows a current example of the longwave difference from GOES-10; purple and black values over Texas represent the largest positive differences, so these areas likely have large moisture contents combined with unstable lapse rates. (D. Lindsey and D. Hillger)
Figure 3. Radiative transfer model results showing the 10.35 µm – 12.3 µm brightness temperature differences for 2 temperature and 3 moisture profiles in clear sky conditions.
Figure 4. Example of the longwave difference product from GOES-10.
A collaborative effort is underway with Mike Fromm (NRL) to monitor North American fires and document those fires which spawn thunderstorms and inject aeorsols into the lower stratosphere. As an example, multiple fires were active in Canada during much of June, so three GOES-11 floaters were set up over the area. Below is one of the visible images shortly before sunset, showing several smoke plumes behind a frontal boundary. (D. Lindsey)
GOES-11 visible image from 30 June 2006 at 0200 UTC, showing smoke plumes from a number of large wildfires in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
D. Lindsey and L. Grasso provided RAMS data from the 8 May 2003 severe weather case to Nai-yu Wang (NESDIS/CICS). She plans to simulate microwave radiances for the SSMIS aboard DMSP F16. This collaborative project was first proposed at CIRA’s CoRP Science Symposium, and was further discussed during D. Lindsey’s visit to CICS/U. of Maryland in late August. (D. Lindsey, E/RA1, and L. Grasso)
In collaboration with Dr. Gary Wick of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, CO, a proposal to study atmospheric rivers was submitted to NASA. The term ‘atmospheric rivers’ refers to the filament of high water vapor flux which occurs just to the warm side of some cold fronts associated with midlatitude cyclones. The research would focus on systems coming onto the U.S. west coast from the Pacific Ocean. The large water vapor transport can cause heavy rainfall and flooding when the systems interact with the coastal states. (J. Dostalek)
During this quarter 25 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 76 teletraining signups, 181 students participated.
D. Bikos and J. Braun are currently working on a teletraining session that will focus on utilizing satellite imagery in the forecast process to analyze various orographic effects.
New teletraining that debuted this quarter:
“The GOES 3.9 μm Channel” by Dan Lindsey. This teletraining session was offered 5 times, for a total of 17 office signups and 77 participants. The instructor plans to record this lesson in the future so that it may become available in the VISITview audio playback format.
“Introduction to Gridded Model Output Statistics (MOS)” by Bill Bua. This teletraining session will be offered in late September through October and beyond as needed.
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 25, 2006. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts_c.html
SHyMet Through April through September 2006:
89 total NOAA participants have “officially” registered for SHyMet. Thirteen of these have registered since July 1, 2006 for the New Online SHyMet. *An additional 24 participants are currently “testing” SHymet through the Learning Management System (LMS) – DOC/NOAA e-learning site and are not “officially registered.”
47 total individuals have completed the NOAA version of SHyMet since April 1, 2006 (34 during the period April 1, 2006 through June 30, 2006, while 13 have completed SHyMet since July 1, 2006)
12 total Non-NOAA participants have registered for SHyMet. Most of these individuals are Department of Defense (DOD) or National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) employees. 8 of these have registered since July 1, 2006.
4 total individuals have completed the Non- NOAA version of SHyMet since April 1, 2006 (3 have completed this version of SHyMet since July 1, 2006)
There were a total of 29 SHyMet teletraining sessions offered to NOAA/NWS personnel this year, including: “GOES Sounder,” “GOES High Density Winds,” “Cyclogenesis,” and “Severe Weather.” Each session had an average of 5 offices and 7 individuals in attendance.
From the DOC/NOAA LMS site: SHyMet individual “online” session breakdown of the SHyMet Intern Course through September 2006
A survey for future products that includes both the SHyMet and VISIT programs was developed and is currently being sent to NOAA personnel for input. (J. Braun, B. Connell, D. Bikos)
RAMSDIS software was sent to Barbados to upgrade a new research RAMSDIS. This system will be used for satellite training as well as analyzing regional satellite climatologies collected over the past 9 years. (D. Watson)
The WMO Virtual Laboratory task group gave a session demonstrating the features of VISITview for collaborative weather briefings to a class of 44 participants at training on the Use of MSG data for Environmental Applications (July 5). The training was sponsored by EUMETSAT and held at INPE (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Tony Mostek (NOAA/NWS) gave an overview of VISIT and the monthly weather briefings from his desk in Boulder, CO; Bernie Connell (CIRA) presented brief examples of using satellite imagery for hazard detection from her desk in Fort Collins, Colorado; and Mike Davison, (International Desk at NCEP/HPC) led the discussion of the day’s significant weather features from his desk in Camp Springs, Maryland. (B. Connell)
The WMO Virtual Laboratory task group is making preparations for the High Profile Training Event that will occur 16 to 27 October 2006. The HPTE is a major milestone in the evolution of the WMO / CGMS Virtual Laboratory for Satellite Meteorology. It will provide a unique education and training opportunity to WMO Members through the presentation of a series of interactive, online, presentations. The HPTE will provide training on different levels: 1) Interactive online lectures to WMO Members in each Region through the local WMO Centre of Excellence (Niger, Oman, Kenya, Barbados, Costa Rica, Brazil, China and Australia) and 2) At least one inter regional image and product discussion between WMO Members and the VL Partners in those regions. More information about the training event can be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/wmovl/ (B. Connell)
CIRA contributed content to the new training module ‘Detection of Volcanic Ash and SO2’ by Jochen Kerkmann of EUMETSAT. The module was recently released. http://www.eumetsat.int/home/Main/What_We_Do/Training/Distance_Learning/index.htm?l=en (B. Connell)
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua, Barbados, Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Cayman, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad, and Venezuela. The discussions were well attended with more than 25 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis. Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather. Added discussion featured during August included imagery for the eruption of the Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador. The sessions last 75-90 minutes. (B. Connell)
GOES-12 imageryfor June 2006 through August 2006 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to study cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides examples for use in satellite focused training efforts. The monthly cloud frequency composites for June through August 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. Click on images to enlarge.
Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for June through August 1997-2006 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.
A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June through August 1999-2006 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June through August 1999-2006 for Barbados.
The web page depicting cloud frequency composites by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Central America has been updated. It now includes composites covering 1998-2005 for May through November.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/climatology/central%5Famerica/
The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html (B. Connell, D. Coleman)
The IP addresses of two HP workstations in San Jose, Costa Rica was changed and the CIRA IT team assisted their site in their efforts. (H. Gosden)
The change from GOES-10 to GOES-11 for the GOES-west operational satellite took place on 21 June, a rather seamless transition, with GOES-11 currently being re-transmitted through GOES-10, eliminating the need to move any receiving antennas. GOES-11 Imager and Sounder data are displayed on GOES-west RAMSDIS Online (http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol/main.html). (D. Hillger)
The first GOES-13 visible images were captured at CIRA on 22 June. After the first few preliminary sectored images, a full-disk visible image was captured for 1801 UTC. The first full-disk image at 1730 UTC was collected as well, but is not currently available. Fellow collaborators at UW/CIMSS/ASPB and NESDIS in Washington DC were able to process the first image. Two GOES-13 Sounder visible-band images were also collected, but appear quite dark over land surfaces (not shown). (D. Hillger)
More image comparisons have been added to the GOES-13 Science Test page. See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/. At this time, the GOES-13 images are the first test images only. PowerPoint presentations with comparisons to other GOES have been prepared courtesy of UW/CIMMS/ASPB (Tim Schmit). We would like this to be the catch-all Website for GOES-13 end-user information. Contributions are welcome. A few names have been added to the GOES-13 notification mailing list. If you know of anyone who should be receiving this information as it is updated, please have them contact me to be put on the mailing list. (D. Hillger)
In response to a request for verification of a problem with all bands of the GOES-11 Sounder, feedback was provided to Dejiang Han of Satellite Operations. The problem is that the GOES-11 Sounder appears to be skipping forward several lines and then repeating previous scan lines, at least at some image times, with an example being day 192 (11 July) at 1301 UTC (not shown). [The “hiccup” caused an end to that image and the resulting Sounder products generated by CIMSS, but the image continued through the hiccup in CIRA’s collection, as a result of differences in the ground station software between the two sites.] Both CIMSS and CIRA confirmed the problem with the GOES-11 Sounder but have not received any feedback from Satellite Operations. (D. Hillger)
The first GOES-13 calibrated full-disk infrared images were captured at CIRA on 20 July 2006 at 1800 UTC. (The first UN-CALIBRATED infrared images were collected on 12 July.) Fellow collaborator Tim Schmit at UW/CIMSS/ASPB provided PowerPoint comparisons of GOES-13.with GOES-12. All GOES-13 images and comparisons are made available on the GOES-13 NOAA/Science Post Launch Test Website at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/ (D. Hillger)
Preliminary analysis of the first calibrated full-disk infrared images (from 20 July 2006 at 1800 UTC) from the GOES-13 Imager indicate that GOES-13 appears to have noise levels that are much improved over those from the five previous GOES (GOES-8 through GOES-12). Noise for GOES-13 bands 2 (3.9 μm), 4 (10.7 μm), and 6 (13.3 μm) are about two to three times lower than for GOES-12, with the noise for GOES-13 band-3 (6.7 μm) being about the same as GOES-12, as in Figure 1 below. A parallel analysis of detector-to-detector striping for the same GOES-13 IR images indicates that striping, between the two IR detectors that take data simultaneously for adjacent lines of data, may be the reason that GOES-13 band-3 is noisier than the other GOES-13 bands. Details are available on the GOES-13 NOAA/Science Post Launch Test Website (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/) (D. Hillger)
Figure 1: Preliminary GOES-13 Noise Improvements
The Microsoft Windows application designed to view (compressed or uncompressed) McIDAS-format imagery directly, without converting to other formats such as JPEG first, has been updated for GOES-13, 14, and 15. In addition, the viewer had not been working for GOES band-6. The viewer allows quick viewing of compressed GOES GVAR data files in the CIRA ground station archive. (D. Hillger)
A series of Web pages on GOES image calibration and display, originally created in 1998, have been updated after being moved to a new RAMM Branch/CIRA Web server. See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/calibration/goes_image_display/default.asp. The pages contain information on: 1) GOES image calibration/scaling and display; 2) GOES image noise characteristics; and 3) Principal Component Image (PCI) transformation of GOES imagery. The updates included removing broken links and updating information that is no longer valid. (D. Hillger)
D. Hillger, along with many others in NESDIS/StAR, participated in teleconference on GOES Calibration and Validation that was held on 6 September. Moderated by Fred Wu, the new StAR calibration lead, the meeting seeks to consolidate sources of GOES calibration information for one-stop shopping. Although not all GOES cal/val information will ever reside in one place, a master Website is planned to link to information that is now widely spread throughout various groups that have a stake in GOES calibration and validation. (D. Hillger)
Below are two images (Figures 2 and 3) comparing GOES-13 to GOES-12 images through eclipse. Rather than one long gap while the sun is behind the earth, there are two gaps when the sun is within view on each side of the earth. See the GOES-13 Science Test page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/) for a PowerPoint presentation with more details on the GOES-13 through eclipse. The Web page also includes more examples from CIMMS/ASPB of stray solar radiation from the sun next to the earth during “eclipse” of GOES-13, where it appears that there is a temperature effect on the longwave IR bands as well as the shortwave (3.9 um) band. (D. Hillger)
Figure 2: GOES-13 band-4 (10.7 μm) through eclipse. Note the shorter gaps when the sun is next to and on each side of the earth.
Figure 3: Same as Figure 2, but for GOES-12 band-4 (10.7 μm). Note the much longer gap in imagery when the sun is next to and behind the earth.
An analysis of space-view measurements was made both before and after the GOES-13 east-west emissivity coefficients were characterized and applied by the Post Launch Test engineering team. Figures 4 and 5 show 2-byte counts across the full scan width of the GOES-13 Imager for IR band 4 (10.7 μm) before and after the scan-mirror correction respectively. See the GOES-13 Science Test page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_n/) for a PowerPoint presentation with more details on the East-West emissivity correction. (D. Hillger)
Figure 4: Band-4 (10.7 μm) with GOES-12 coefficients applied. Note the downturn in the trace across the scan.
Figure 5: Band-4 (10.7 μm) with GOES-13 coefficients applied. Note the similar values at both ends of the scan for all bands. Center of scan touches top of earth in this case.
The Open Systems Radar Product Generator (ORPG) Software was configured and installed on a system to assist in a graduate student’s thesis project. The configuration was difficult and required help from some external experts. (D. Watson)
NOAAPORT ingest, AWIPS data processing, and AWIPS data display system are operational. (D. Molenar)
New hardware procured for workstation and lab system upgrades. (D. Molenar)
Modifications were made to the specifications of the mini-cluster system. The power supply unit was upgraded to handle the additional load which was required by the dual core Opteron processors. (H. Gosden)
Another uninterruptible Power Supply was installed in the RAMM Team’s server room; this unit backs-up the mini-cluster system. (H.Gosden)
A few static IP addresses were released and the new DHCP IP’s were implemented in our systems/servers that ingest satellite data. (H. Gosden)
Published:
Refereed
Jones, T. A., D. J. Cecil, and M. DeMaria, 2006: Passive Microwave-Enhanced Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme. Wea. and Forecasting, 21, 613-635.
Landsea, C.W., B.A. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, 2006: Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones? Science, 313, 452-454.
Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, J.A. Knaff, J.F. Dostalek, 2006: GOES Climatology and Analysis of Thunderstorms with Enhanced 3.9-µm Reflectivity. Monthly Weather Review, 134-9, 2342–2353.
Nonrefereed
Refereed
Chen, S.S., J.A. Knaff, and F.D. Marks, Jr., 2006: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM. Monthly Weather Review.
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and C. Sampson, 2006: Evaluation of Long-Term Trends in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2006: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, T.H. Vonder Haar:, 2006: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. J. Applied Meterology.
Sampson, C.R., J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2006: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin, Wea. Forecasting.
Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2006: Evaluation of GFDL and Simple Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms. Weather and Forecasting.
Nonrefereed
DeMaria, M., 2006: Has there been any progress in tropical cyclone intensity forecasting? AGU Fall Meeting, 11–15 December 2006, San Francisco, CA.
DeMaria, M., K.S. Maclay, and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Tropical cyclone structure analysis: a multi-sensor approach. AGU Fall Meeting, 11–15 December 2006, San Francisco, CA.
Refereed
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, M. DeMaria, 2007: Synthetic 6.7 and 10.7 µm imagery of thunderstorms, Monthly Weather Review.
Hillger, D.W., 2006: GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.
Knaff, J.A., and R.M. Zehr, 2006: Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Pressure Wind Relationships. Monthly Weather Review.
Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T.P. Marchok, J.M. Gross, 2006: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting.
Kossin, J.P., J.A. Knaff, H.I. Berger, K.J. Mueller, D.C. Herndon, T.A. Cram, C.S. Velden, R.J. Murnane, and J.D. Hawkins, 2006: Estimating Hurricane Wind Structure in the Absence of Aircraft Recconnaissance. Weather and Forecasting.
Landsea, C., J. Beven, J. Callaghan, B. Harper, K. Hoarau, J.A. Knaff, J. Kossin, M. Mayfield, A. Mestas-Nunez, M. Turk, 2006: Global Warming and Extreme Tropical Cyclones: Can We Detect Climate Trends from Existing Tropical Cyclone Databases? Science.
Sampson, C.R, J.A. Knaff, and E.M. Fukada, 2006: Operational Evaluation of a Selective Consensus in the Western North Pacific Basin, Weather and Forecasting.
Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2007: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Monthly Weather Review.
Zehr, R.M. and J.A. Knaff, 2006: Atlantic major hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics based on best track, aircraft, and IR images. J. of Climate.
Nonrefereed
Hillger, D.W., and M. DeMaria, 2007: GOES-R Color Product Develoopment. 3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.
Hillger, D.W., T. Schmit, D.T. Lindsey, J.A. Knaff, J. Daniels, 2007: An overview of GOES-13 science test. 3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.
Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2007: Modeling GOES-R 6.185-10.35 µm brightness temperature differences above cold thunderstorm tops. 3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.
Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.T. Lindsey, and M. DeMaria, 2007: Validation of mesoscale model output with satellite observations. 3rd Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellites, 14-18 January 2007, San Antonio, TX.
| Traveler | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| M. DeMaria | Camp Springs, MD | GOES-R and GIMPAP Reviews | GIMPAP | August 8 – 11 |
| D. Lindsey | Boulder, CO | Collaboration | GIMPAP | August 9 |
| D. Lindsey | Washington, DC | ICAPOP Meeting | GIMPAP | August 23 – 25 |
| J. Knaff | St. George, Bermuda | Bermuda Biological Station for Research Workshop | GIMPAP | September 18 -20 |
| D. Hillger | Washington, DC | GOES-13 and SAB Meetings | Base | September 18 – 20 |
Many RAMM/CIRA scientists attended and presented talks at The 3rd Annual NOAA/NESDIS/CoRP Science Symposium hosted by CIRA in Fort Collins on August 15-16.http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/corp/Symposium/PostSymposium/Index.htm See list of RAMMB/CIRA presenters.
D. Bikos, J. Braun, and B. Connell attended 4-day training in Boulder offered by the LERN Institute. The content covered normals of training industry best practices and expectations. It provided a consultant’s view of training issues and practices relevant to how the NWS training division conducts business, reports metrics, and keeps abreast of the state-of-the-art in training and adult education. The NWS is a member of the LERN organization. (B. Connell)
D. Hillger traveled to Suitland to discuss the GOES-13 Science Test schedules with several NOAA engineers at Satellite Operations. It was an opportunity to meet many people who were previously only known via e-mail contact. The Science Tests are scheduled to begin on 4 December and run for three weeks. Kevin Ludlum, as GOES scheduler, will work out the schedules so that there are options available for each day of the tests for both the Imager and Sounder. Proposed tests and a testing schedule were presented and discussed. Hillger also visited Camp Springs to consult with Satellite Analysis Branch personnel on new 3-color albedo software they will be testing for potential use in the detection of smoke and fires with GOES imagery. Part of the code is the shortwave albedo algorithm that may also be used separately. The software was downloaded and compiled to be sure that all the necessary components were available. (D. Hillger)
D. Lindsey traveled to Washington D. C. to attend an ICAPOP meeting. While there, he met with individuals from the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) concerning operational use of the experimental Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index. SAB expressed interest, and agreed to begin viewing and evaluating this product. Additionally, D. Lindsey traveled to CICS at the U. of Maryland and gave a seminar entitled “Is there a relationship between thunderstorm-top ice crystal size and updraft strength?” (D. Lindsey)
September 19 through 22, D. Bikos, J. Braun and B. Connell attended the LERN (Learning Resources Network) “Training That Works” seminar in Boulder. The NWS training division requires all trainers to attend this course. (D. Bikos, J. Braun, B. Connell)
M. DeMaria traveled to Camp Springs to lead the GIMPAP Annual Review and to participate in the GOES-R Risk Reduction Annual Review.
César Azorín Molina, who is a researcher and PhD student at the Laboratory of Climatology at the University of Alicante, Spain, finished a 3-month visit to CIRA (June 1 – September 15). He is investigating the sea breeze circulations along the east coast of the Iberian Peninsula and is particularly interested in the use of satellite imagery in characterizing their occurrence and persistence. César collaborated with scientist on the use of NOAA 16 and 17 imagery in creating a stratified cloud climatology over the Iberian Peninsula form March through October 2004. (B. Connell)
R. Zehr participated in a “job shadowing” program organized by Kristin Cutaia, Community College of Denver, by hosting a one-day visit of an undergraduate meteorology student. Alicia Shakleford visited RAMM with the purpose of discussing career interests and learning about the RAMM activities. Much of her visit was spent discussing tropical cyclone forecasting. (R. Zehr)
John Kaplan from the NOAA Office of Atmospheric Research (OAR) HRD visited CIRA to collaborate on a hurricane wind structure forecast method, which is a Joint Hurricane Testbed Project. He also worked with M. DeMaria to draft an outline for a new publication on a hurricane rapid intensification index. M. DeMaria, R. Zehr, J. Knaff)
John Eise, the new Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) at the NWS office in Cheyenne, WY visited CIRA this week. David Copley (the SOO) accompanied John. They agreed to look at some of CIRA’s experimental products to evaluate them in an operational environment. Also, they had some suggestions on training for when CIRA becomes a testbed for pre-release AWIPS software builds to evaluate satellite products for future builds. (D. Bikos)
Ruiyue Chen from the University of Maryland/CICS (Cooperative Institute for Climate Studies) visited CIRA/RAMMB the week of 21-25 August to gather information about Cloudsat and explore the use of vertical radar profiles for use in his PhD dissertation work. Mr. Chen works under the direction of Ralph Ferraro at the NOAA/NESDIS/StAR Satellite Climate Studies Branch (SCSB). CloudSat data were acquired and some preliminary comparisons were made to various other satellite imagery. Attached are images comparing one of the CloudSat radar profile granules, for a swath that includes stratus cloud, with the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) infrared window band (10.7 μm) image with the CloudSat sub-satellite points for the granule overlaid on the image. Another figure shows a comparison of CloudSat vertical radar profiles with MODIS band-26 (1.38 μm) radiances. (D. Hillger)
Figure 1a: Vertical radar profiles for a nadir-looking CloudSat granule on 19 August 2006 at 0230 UTC. Ground level at the top in this inverted height-vs.-distance cross section. Clouds are white; echo-free regions are blue.
Figure 1b: MSG window-band image (10.7 μm) of the South Atlantic at 0230 UTC on 19 August 2006, showing the sub-satellite path of the CloudSat granule in Figure 1a. Cloudsat was moving from north-to-south, to compare with the radar profile from left-to-right in Figure 1a.
Figure 2: CloudSat vertical radar profiles compared to MODIS band-26 (1.38 μm) radiances for 0258 to 0351 UTC on 19 August 2006.