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A formal evaluation of the Western N. Pacific sub-domain of the new Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product (TCFP) began on Aug. 27, 2007 at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, HI. Formal evaluation will continue through the end of the 2007 tropical cyclone season, at which time both quantitative and qualitative feedback will be provided by JTWC forecasters. JTWC is one of the primary users for which the new TCFP product was developed, and their feedback will be useful in optimizing the experimental product before transition to operations. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
The new, extended Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product showed a localized probability maximum on September 15, 2007, the day prior to the formation of Typhoon Wipha near 20° N, 131° E in the Western N. Pacific Basin.
Work continues on the objective identification of Annular Hurricanes. Most recently, a manuscript discussing the development of an annular hurricane index was accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that have been shown in previous work to be significantly stronger, to maintain their peak intensities longer, and to weaken more slowly, than average tropical cyclones. Because of these characteristics, they represent a significant forecasting challenge. This paper updates the list of annular hurricanes to encompass the years 1995-2006 in both the North Atlantic and eastern/central North Pacific tropical cyclone basins (as shown in Figure 1) However, since the occurrence of annular hurricanes is rare (~4% of all hurricanes), a special algorithm to detect annular hurricanes is developed that employs two steps to identify the candidates: 1) prescreening the data and 2) applying a linear discriminant analysis. Independent results suggest that the algorithm will be able to detect ~96% of the annular hurricane cases with a false alarm rate of ~6%. The algorithm is being run in real time at NHC in conjunction with the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme during the 2007 hurricane season. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, A. Schumacher)
Figure 1. Color enhanced GOES infrared satellite imagery of the fourteen annular hurricane cases at or near peak visual annular characteristics. Storm names, dates and times are given at the bottom of each individual image panel. In addition, storm names and year are listed below each image panel.
Two-dimensional output of the recently developed multi-platform satellite-only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis (Sat-only TC winds) was compared to the NOAA/AOML H-Wind surface wind analyses for all the co-occurring cases during the 2006 hurricane season. H-wind analyses make use of high-density cloud-drift winds, QuikScat ocean wind vectors, Aircraft reconnaissance wind data either at flight-level or at the surface (from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer), Ships, and Buoys. The Sat-only TC winds are created by combining information from AMSU-based 2-d winds (Bessho et al. 2006), Cloud/Feature track winds from NESDIS, IR-based winds near the TC center (Mueller et al. 2006) and QuikScat surface wind vectors, which is explained in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). There were 63 cases from six Atlantic tropical cyclones and three East Pacific tropical cyclones. Results, shown in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, are very encouraging in that the largest mean absolute errors were on the order of 8 m/s with the overall errors being less than 3 m/s and biases were -0.3 m/s. Largest errors are near the tropical cyclone center and were primarily caused by 1) misplacing the radius of maximum winds, 2) the H-Wind rarely having maximum winds that agreed with the NHC advisory at the same time. Six-hourly analyses of global tropical storms starting in 2007 and all active tropical cyclones are available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/. Wind radii information resulting from these analyses is also being supplied in real-time to NOAA/TPC and DOD/JTWC. (J. Knaff)
Click on image to enlarge.
Figure 2: Mean absolute error results of a 63 case evaluation comparing the Sat-only TC winds to the H-Wind analyses for co-occurring times. Horizontal scales are given in units of km and the errors are contoured in units of m/s.
Click on image to enlarge.
Figure 3: Bias results of a 63 case evaluation comparing the Sat-only TC winds to the H-Wind analyses for co-occurring times. Horizontal scales are given in units of km and the biases are contoured in units of m/s.
The RAMMB real-time tropical cyclone web page was updated. Two new products, a storm relative visible image loop and a satellite-based kinetic energy versus intensity category comparison, were added to the page. An example of the storm-relative visible image and corresponding KE product for Hurricane Felix (2007) are shown in Fig. 4. The web page was also updated to include “invest” or areas under investigation for tropical cyclone formation at the request of forecasters at JTWC. Several of the products including the surface wind product and the AMSU products have been found useful for monitoring TC development. Further information on these and the other products available at this site can be found at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/about.asp. (J. Knaff, K. Micke)
Click on images to enlarge
Figure 4: Examples of new products added to the RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Page. Shown are the storm-relative visible image sector and corresponding Kinetic Energy vs. Intensity product for Hurricane Felix valid 3 September 2007 at ~12UTC. Note on the web page both figures are animated.
A manuscript entitled “Experiments with a Simple Tropical Cyclone Intensity Consensus” by C. Sampson (NRL), J. Franklin (NCEP/TPC), J. Knaff and M. DeMaria was accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting. This study conducts experiments with intensity forecast aids on four years of data (2003-2006). Findings suggest that simple equally-weighted ensembles of skillful and/or independent forecast models result in a reduction of intensity forecasting errors. The findings also demonstrated that forming a consensus from skillful members was not sufficient to reduce the consensus mean error. The members must also demonstrate independence from each other. (J. Knaff)
For several years, GFS data have been ingested and converted from grib1 format to a packed ASCII format for use in tropical research. Because of the upcoming switch to grib2 format, portions of the conversion code have been rewritten to process the new format. The testing of the new code is underway. (J. Dostalek)
Temperature and moisture soundings from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) are being collected for tropical cyclone cases. COSMIC uses radio occultation techniques to provide temperature and moisture profiles with modest horizontal resolution, but very fine vertical resolution. This data is being used to examine the thermodynamics of tropical cyclone environments and its relationship to intensity change. Figure 1 below shows a COSMIC sounding (left) from the early stages of Hurricane Helene in the eastern Atlantic along with four image channels available from MSG (right). The initial development of Helene was very slow, and the COSMIC sounding reveals a much drier environment than a typical tropical sounding. The COSMIC data is being used proxy data for the development of GOES-R and NPOESS tropical cyclone forecast algorithms. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria)
Figure 1. 9.6 μm, 10.8 μm, 12 μm, and 13.4 μm METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) imagery (right) along with Temperature (dark blue) and dewpoint temperature (light blue) vertical profiles from a COSMIC sounding in the environment of Hurricane Helene at 600 UTC on 18 September 2006. Also shown are the temperature (dark red) and dewpoint temperature (red) profiles from a mean tropical sounding. Note the much lower dewpoint temperatures (indicated dry air) from the COSMIC sounding in the middle atmosphere.
A World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) dataset was acquired for GOES-R studies: At a recent conference in Perugia, Italy several talks were given that used a new lightning dataset to study tropical cyclone genesis and intensification. This dataset was developed by University of Washington from a ground-based network that provides nearly continuous monitoring of global lightning activity. Although the data has several limitations in that it only goes back to 2004 and only includes the strongest 15 to 20% of cloud to ground lightning strikes, it is one of the only datasets that provides the time resolution over the tropics that will be available from GOES-R. This dataset was ordered for use in CIRA GOES-R Risk Reduction studies. The lightning data over the eastern tropical Atlantic will be analyzed in conjunction with the MSG imagery, which is a proxy for the ABI. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)
Figure. Locations of all lightning strikes detected by the WWLLN on Sept 10, 2006 over the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)
A RAMMB product that overlays global tropical cyclone track forecasts over oceanic heat content have been added to the WMO tropical cyclone web page, Figure 6. Oceanic Heat Content is estimated is provided by G. Goni (NOAA/AOML) using the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) algorithm and track forecasts are provided by TPC, CPHC or JTWC. Links are provided for both the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page and the AOML TCHP web page. The web page is currently being constructed to provide information to global tropical cyclone forecast centers, particularly those in developing nations. As part of the future development of this new web page, WMO will redirect users of this web page to the Tropical Cyclone Formation product, which provides tropical cyclone 24-h formation probabilities in the entire North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. N. Lomarda (WMO) provided this link http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/tmrp/tcf/tcweb.html. (J. Knaff)
A web browser view of the oceanic heat content product description that is displayed on the WMO tropical cyclone web page.
Estimates of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt winds from an experimental multi-platform satellite only tropical cyclone surface wind analysis were provided to M. Fiorino (NCEP/TPC) for his evaluation. Estimates began in late August of 2005 and have been provided in real-time to the Joint Typhoon Warning center since January of 2006 and to the National Hurricane Center since May 2007 for evaluation and feedback. (J. Knaff)
Information and suggestions were provided to K. Carey (National Weather Association (NWA) Remote Sensing Committee member) who was writing a proposed September 2007 NWA newsletter topic. The proposed topic was “Near-Real-time Remote Sensing of Tropical Cyclones on the Web.” (J. Knaff)
A presentation was given to six visitors from Milwaukee associated with Baraboo growth, LLC. They were interested in the potential investment opportunities related to tropical cyclone forecasting and wanted some idea as to what tools were used in making short-term as well as long range forecasts of tropical cyclone formation, track and structure change. (J. Knaff)
The Australian Bureau of Metrology (BOM) is considering accepting the Knaff and Zehr (2007) wind-pressure relationship for all three tropical cyclone warning centers. Currently each center uses a separate wind-pressure relationship in operations and a single wind-pressure relationship would make regional tropical cyclone advisory estimates of MSLP standardized. Since in operations tropical cyclone size is estimated by the radius of gale force winds (R34), RAMMB has been working with J. Courtney (BOM) to generalize the published equations to be a function of R34. A copy of the preliminary BOM proposal as well as the published paper can be found at ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/knaff/K&ZWPR/ (J. Knaff)
FORTRAN 90 modules designed to read the advisory and forecast databases (adecks) and the best track databases (bdecks) of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system were made available to NRLMRY. The ATCF is the operational tropical cyclone forecast system used at NOAA/TPC and the DOD/JTWC. The routines allow users easy access to the information in these databases. They have been posted as part of the ATCF database description at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/database.html (J. Knaff)
The RAMM Branch has been participating in a study focused on deriving wind fields over the Arctic using satellite techniques. The RAMM contribution has been to develop a method where an estimate of the wind field is calculated using temperature profiles derived from AMSU radiances using an algorithm developed by Mitch Goldberg. As part of that study, the temperature retrievals themselves were examined for a summer and winter period. Figure 1 shows the bias and root mean square errors of the retrievals when compared to radiosondes launched in the Arctic. The data are from July 2007. Figure 2 shows the statistics from December 2004. The twelve levels of comparison ranged from 850 hPa to 10 hPa, with the number of comparisons at each level listed on the right side of the plot. For the most part, the bias is within 2 K and the RMSE below 4 K of the radiosonde. Some trouble in the stratosphere is seen at 250 hPa for the summer case and at 150 hPa for the winter case; Mitch Goldberg has been contacted to see if he can explain the relatively large bias and RMSE. (J. Dostalek)
Figure 1. Performance of an AMSU-based temperature retrieval technique in comparison to radiosonde data. The comparisons were made over the Arctic in July of 2007.
Figure 2. Performance of an AMSU-based temperature retrieval technique in comparison to radiosonde data. The comparisons were made over the Arctic in December of 2004.
As part of the testing of the wind retrieval code, the model height fields were used to calculate the wind field under various balance conditions. These wind fields were then compared to the model total wind. The results for the winter period (13 cases from December 2004, over 50,000 matchups) are shown in Figure 3. As expected, as the balance approximation becomes more exact (geostrophic → linear → nonlinear), the vector RMSE in relation to the model total wind field decreases. Ultimately, the height field computed from the temperature profiles derived from AMSU radiances will be used to calculate the wind fields. (J. Dostalek)
An article has been accepted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology called “An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES,” by D. Lindsey and L. Grasso. It should appear in the journal in several months. (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)
A presentation was provided for the PSDI Annual Review for the GOES MCS Index to be transferred to NESDIS operations. This follows an official user request from HPC in May 2007. We are currently awaiting final approval. (D. Lindsey)
D. Lindsey traveled to Trieste, Italy, Sep. 10-14 to attend the 4th European Conference on Severe Storms. A talk was given entitled “Exploring the Relationship between Satellite-Retrieved Ice Crystal Size and Thunderstorm Intensity,” and a poster entitled “Numerical Simulations of the Effects of Cloud Condensation Nuclei on Thunderstorm Intensity and Evolution.” The figure below is from the presentation on effective radius and thunderstorm intensity, and shows the possible effect of a strengthening updraft on thunderstorm microphysical evolution. In addition, D. Lindsey was a co-author on a paper entitled “Central European Convective Storms Penetrating Deep into the Lower Stratosphere,” by M. Setvak (Czech Hydrometeorology Institute) et al. (D. Lindsey)
Figure. Schematic illustration showing the possible effect a strengthening updraft has on the microphysical evolution of a growing thunderstorm. This figure was part of D. Lindsey’s presentation at the 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.
Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for June, July and August 2007. (C. Combs)
Processing of wind regime products continues. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for May, June and July 2007 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for May, June and July 2007. (C. Combs)
Two Power Point proposal presentations were written, one each for GIMPAP and GOES-R, which were presented at the GIMPAP Review on 20 August and the GOES-R Review on 21 August. (C. Combs)
A phone conference was held with the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Eureka, CA to discuss cloud composites to investigate marine stratus burn-off rate. Science and Operation Officer Mel Nordquist and interns Becca Mazur and Treena Hartley from Eureka and Cindy Combs from CIRA were in attendance. A work plan was developed to produce satellite cloud composites every hour during the summer months that are stratified by early morning marine layer depth. These will be used to analyze burn-off rates. Then the products will be converted into the netCDF format for easier integration into their systems. (C. Combs)
Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area has been started. This effort will add May and September 1998-2005 to the already processed set of June-August, as well as include 2006-2007 for May-September. Procedures were updated to handle newer GOES-11 data. (C. Combs)
An abstract was submitted to the 5th GOES User’s Conference, which is part of the AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans Jan. 20-24 2008, entitled “Development of Severe Weather Products for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager.” In addition, GOES data is being collected from the summer 2007, along with mesoanalysis data from the Storm Prediction Center, in order to seek a statistical relationship between thunderstorm-top effective radius and severe weather. The goal is to develop a severe weather product that can be greatly improved with the additional spectral bands on the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager. (D. Lindsey)
A simulated version of the calibration/scaling for GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) is available in McIDAS 2007. Plots of the various unit conversions associated with that simulated calibration have been made in order to better understand the scaling that takes place between 2-byte RAW counts, radiances, temperatures, and the final 1-byte image display. Figure 1a shows the conversion from radiances to temperatures for shortwave-IR ABI band-7 (3.9 μm). Scaling for the values in this band is particularly challenging since both low and high temperatures (up to 400 K) are specified. Users of shortwave IR imagery know that low (cloud-top) temperatures are often accompanied by high noise levels. The scaling challenge is to maintain sufficient bit depth in order to capture lower temperatures without excessive quantization noise. Another scaling feature is shown in Figure 1b, which is the conversion from temperatures to 1-byte display counts that is the default for current GOES imagery. With that scaling, temperatures above 330 K are truncated. Thus a different scaling, one that allows the display of temperatures up to 400 K, is needed and has been generated for use in the display of imagery for the detection of fire hot spots. (D. Hillger)
Figure 1a: GOES-R ABI band-7 (3.9 μm) radiance-to-temperature relationship. Temperatures up to 400 K are specified for this shortwave band, but at lower temperatures the radiance becomes increasingly small, and a given radiance increment represents a much larger range of temperatures than it does at warmer temperatures. This is the reason that lower temperatures in imagery from this band appear noisy.
Figure 1b: The temperature-to-display-count scaling that is the default for McIDAS display of GOES imagery. With this default display, temperatures above 330 K are truncated, which is sufficient for most current GOES imagery. For GOES-R ABI a different temperature-to-display-count scaling is needed, in order to represent temperatures up to 400 K. Such a relationship [not shown] has been generated for use with the shortwave IR band-7 (3.9 μm).
A realtime display of simulated GOES-R products is available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/goes-r/. Currently the page has experimental products for fog/stratus discrimination (from other image features) and for blowing dust, as well as a GOES-11 blowing dust product using the same split-window difference that still is available with GOES-west. Explanations of how the products are generated are available on the web page below each image, as well as explanations of how to interpret the products. Both latest images and image loops are available for each product. (D. Hillger, D. Watson, and K. Micke)
Image of the simulated GOES-R ABI products web page with realtime imagery from both MSG and current GOES.
The ABI observational operator was improved this quarter. The goal is to reduce the amount of ram memory used by each node. We have completed this task for SHDOMPP and will continue with the addition of EDDRT. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta, and A. Carheden) Last quarter, several idealized fire “hotspots” were added into the 8 May 2003 severe weather case. Many fire scenarios were produced and delivered to Elaine Prins of CIMSS. This quarter, we continued producing synthetic imagery of hotspots and began an investigation of how GOES-R ABI will sample the data. In addition, the simulation over the Yucatan Peninsula is complete. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, and D. Hillger)
D. Lindsey is a co-author on a paper recently submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research entitled “The Stratospheric Impact of the Chisholm oCumulonimbus Eruption: Part I, Nadir Satellite Perspective,” by M. Fromm (NRL) et. al. (D. Lindsey)
D. Lindsey is a co-author on a paper recently submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research entitled “Satellite Detection of Severe Convective Storms by their Retrieved Vertical Profiles of Cloud Partile Effective Radius and Thermodynamic Phase,” by D. Rosenfeld (Hebrew University) et al. (D. Lindsey)
An extensive review was provided on a script for a COMET module on “Multispectral Satellite Applications: Monitoring the Wildland Fire Lifecycle.” Feedback was provided to Marianne Weingroff at COMET. Other than a number of technical suggestions that were inserted, the main concern was that the GOES-R series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been neglected, and only NPOESS VIIRS has been mentioned as a source of future satellite data for wildfire detection. Both NPOESS and GOES-R will be launched and operated in the 2010s. (D. Hillger)
During this quarter 35 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered. There were 70 teletraining signups, 140 students participated. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)
Ongoing development of new VISIT teletraining sessions:
In addition:
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 26, 2007. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html
| Sessions | Number of offices attending (signups) | Certificates Issued | |
| Total | 1231 | 5952 | 16555 |
| Enhanced-V | 59 | 192 | 500 |
| Detecting Boundaries | 12 | 62 | 226 |
| Detecting LTO boundaries at night | 17 | 67 | 186 |
| CONUS CG Lightning Activity | 16 | 86 | 285 |
| Using GOES RSO | 26 | 83 | 263 |
| Tropical Satellite Imagery | 8 | 48 | 138 |
| GOES Enhancements in AWIPS | 9 | 47 | 109 |
| Diagnosing Mesoscale Ascent | 21 | 83 | 252 |
| Applying Mesoscale Tools | 5 | 54 | 202 |
| Diagnosing Surface Boundaries | 24 | 106 | 307 |
| QuikSCAT | 11 | 42 | 135 |
| Lake-Effect Snow | 15 | 64 | 210 |
| NDIC | 19 | 40 | 105 |
| Lightning Met 1 | 63 | 331 | 1129 |
| Precip Type | 5 | 44 | 186 |
| Pattern Recognition to MRF | 10 | 70 | 277 |
| HPC Medium Range Forecasting | 15 | 101 | 335 |
| Ingredients based Approach | 36 | 198 | 626 |
| Model Initializations | 20 | 124 | 440 |
| NWP Top 10 Misconceptions | 27 | 148 | 532 |
| GOES Sounder | 29 | 122 | 262 |
| GOES High Density winds | 21 | 71 | 161 |
| Forecasting MCS’s | 12 | 84 | 232 |
| Mesoanalysis using RSO | 49 | 178 | 561 |
| Near-Storm data in WDM | 14 | 91 | 340 |
| POES | 6 | 27 | 63 |
| Lightning Met 2 | 43 | 261 | 731 |
| Ensemble Prediction Systems | 17 | 93 | 303 |
| Eta12 | 14 | 57 | 194 |
| Tornado Warning Guidance 2002 | 13 | 91 | 355 |
| Fog Detection | 11 | 80 | 264 |
| ACARS | 13 | 73 | 204 |
| Cyclogenesis | 64 | 298 | 1002 |
| TRAP | 5 | 20 | 66 |
| Subtropical | 2 | 15 | 54 |
| Mesoscale Banding | 8 | 78 | 302 |
| Lake-Effect Snow II | 15 | 52 | 128 |
| TROWAL | 20 | 118 | 337 |
| Hydro-Estimator | 15 | 58 | 171 |
| GOES Fire Detection | 17 | 69 | 205 |
| GOES-12 | 21 | 76 | 248 |
| RSO 3 (Parts 1 AND 2) | 56 | 222 | 305 |
| Water Vapor Imagery | 51 | 215 | 475 |
| Mesoscale Convective Vortices | 28 | 147 | 410 |
| AWIPS Cloud Height / Sounder | 11 | 55 | 128 |
| QuikSCAT winds | 6 | 27 | 69 |
| Convective Downbursts | 39 | 175 | 399 |
| DGEX | 27 | 215 | 562 |
| Severe Parameters | 16 | 136 | 324 |
| Winter Weather (Parts 1 AND 2) | 40 | 215 | 233 |
| Predicting Supercell Motion | 9 | 103 | 197 |
| Monitoring Moisture Return | 13 | 45 | 127 |
| Pulse Thunderstorms | 3 | 48 | 116 |
| GOES 3.9 μm Channel | 5 | 17 | 56 |
| Gridded MOS | 18 | 97 | 147 |
| MODIS Products in AWIPS | 17 | 45 | 111 |
| CRAS Forecast Imagery in AWIPS | 5 | 13 | 21 |
| Orographic Effects | 16 | 48 | 81 |
| NAM-WRF | 14 | 52 | 59 |
| Basic Satellite Principles | 6 | 15 | 22 |
| Warm Season Ensembles | 24 | 60 | 87 |
VISIT Learning Management System (LMS) Metrics from January 2005 through September 2007:
Total Registered for VISIT Courses – 1278
Total Registered 4th Quarter 2007 – 213
Individual VISIT Course Metrics – Numbers Registered:
“Anticipating Mesoscale Band Formation in Winter Storms” – 5 total, 5 this quarter.
“Cyclogenesis” – 222 total, 3 this quarter.
“Extended Range Forecasting” – 166 total, 0 this quarter.
“GOES 3.9 μm Channel” – 2 total, 2 this quarter.
“GOES High Density Winds” – 2 total, 2 this quarter.
“GOES Sounder Data and Products” – 1 total, 1 this quarter.
“Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm” – 33 total, 1 this quarter.
“Lake Effect Snow 1” – 3 total, 3 this quarter.
“Lake Effect Snow 2” – 1 total, 1 this quarter.
“Lightning Meteorology 1” – 127 total, 71 this quarter.
“Lightning Meteorology 2” – 78 total, 38 this quarter.
“Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather: RSO 2” – 106 total, 4 this quarter.
“Mesoscale Convective Vortices” – 148 total, 22 this quarter.
“Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return” – 45 total, 10 this quarter.
“Precipitation Type Forecasting” – 10 total, 8 this quarter.
“Predicting Supercell Motion” – 79 total, 27 this quarter.
“QuikSCAT Winds” – 53 total, 6 this quarter.
“TROWAL Identification” – 10 total, 0 this quarter.
“Use of GOES/RSO Imagery with Other data: RSO 3” – 3 total, 1 this quarter.
“Utilizing GOES Imagery within AWIPS to Forecast Winter Storms” – 71 total, 2 this quarter.
“Water Vapor Channel” – 113 total, 3 this quarter.
SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through September 2007:
CIRA/VISIT Registered:
129 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA.
16 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA.
NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual session breakdown through September 2007 (for “online” training only).
Total Registered for SHyMet Courses – 1587
Total Registered 4th Quarter 2007 – 228
Individual SHyMet Course Metrics – Numbers Registered:
SHyMet Teletraining Numbers: (Since April 2006)
GOES Sounder…: 53 completions
GOES High Density Winds.: 48 completions
Cyclogenesis: 54 completions.
Severe Weather: 52 completions.
D. Lindsey traveled to Trieste, Italy, to attend a 3-day EUMETSAT-sponsored satellite training seminar, in which three 1-hour invited lectures were given. Most lectures focused on tools and techniques for utilizing Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data. The photo below shows the participants and the lecturers. (D. Lindsey)
Photograph. Participants and attendees from a EUMETSAT-sponsored satellite training seminar in Trieste, Italy, September 5-7.
The antenna for receiving data at the National Meteorological Service (IMN) in Costa Rica was having reception problems during the spring months. The data that is received at IMN is served to the other countries in Central America for viewing via RAMSDIS systems. Tom Yoksas at Unidata was consulted on the use of their server for temporary imagery while the antenna at UCR was being fixed. CIRA set up scripts to direct the RAMSDIS systems to receive imagery from the Unidata server. Many of the countries have become highly dependent on the RAMSDIS systems that were distributed in 2001 as part of the Hurricane Mitch Reconstruction Project. They were beginning to express concerns that imagery would not be available for the hurricane season. The antenna in Costa Rica was fixed in early August and RAMSDIS ingest was switched back to the server at IMN. (B. Connell)
CIRA is providing input for the planning stages of another Training Event for the Americas and the Caribbean that is now proposed to take place in March 2008. CIRA gave input to and provided support for a presentation given by Tony Mostek, NWS Training Division in Boulder, to a group in Algoas, Brazil on August 22. (B. Connell)
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger. There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters. The discussions were well attended with an average of 22 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites. Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis. Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather. These sessions that take place during our northern hemisphere summers tend to focus on tropical activity. The sessions also tend to run a little longer at 90 – minutes. (B. Connell)
The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica. Starting this summer Barbados has been conducting weekly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season. CIRA is assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the hadar server listed above. (B. Connell)
We have been experiencing increased problems with the Yahoo Messenger voice communications that has been used for these sessions. Tom Whittaker, CIMSS, is providing support for testing the software TeamSpeak to be used as an alternative. (B. Connell)
CIRA is helping to streamline the efforts to announce the sessions each month and disseminate the session summaries as well as encourage more dialogue among participants. An email group is being established and the Regional Meteorological Training Center of Excellence (RMTCoE) web page is being updated. Watch for the updated information here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell)
The NASA TC4 (Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling) mission took place in Costa Rica during July-August, 2007. The GOES-12 satellite was placed in Super Rapid Scan Mode for 13 days that coincided with the scientific flights. Persons from the Costa Rica National Meteorological Service (IMN) and the University of Costa Rica (UCR) took part in forecasting activities. CIRA collected the GOES-12 imagery for all 13 days and sent a copies of the imagery to IMN and UCR. (B. Connell)
GOES-12 imagery for June through August 2007 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers of Excellence (RMTCoEs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to study cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts. The monthly cloud frequency composites for June though August 1997-2007 by 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in the following figure. (B. Connell)
Monthly cloud frequency composites for June through August 1997-2007 by 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica. A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 μm imagery for June through August 1999-2007 for Barbados is shown in the following figure. (B. Connell)
Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 μm imagery for June through August 1999-2007 for Barbados.
The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean. They were utilized more heavily during recent months by Central American Countries for backup to their RAMSDIS systems as the data has been unavailable through the Costa Rica server.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html (B. Connell, D. Coleman)
New material (from ASPB/CIMSS) was added to GOES-13 Science Test page, after GOES-13 was taken out of storage for a short period in the summer of 2007 and the instruments were turned on. (D. Hillger)
GOES-13 Science Test results have been gathered and edited into a NOAA Technical Report, and returned for final review by all contributors. (D. Hillger)
FY07 hardware procurement/configuration complete. This includes: web server upgrade; old server transitioned to online product development; 4 high end servers for tropical research, CIRA groundsystems data, AWIPS display, and RMTC; 5 new user workstations (including WES w/ GFE). (D. Molenar)
A new rack-mount server was procured and installed. It will replace the current RAMMB Web server and the old web server will be reconfigured to run various processes for the web development. (H. Gosden)
All four toners for the RAMMB color LaserJet printer were ordered to replace the current batch in order to troubleshoot the varying color printouts. There were initial improvements and it will be monitored further to see if it requires a replacement. (H. Gosden)
NESDIS experienced a hardware failure on their primary FOS server which hosts the observational data. Their backup server was renamed and replaced to be the operational FOS server, but the product list on the server was not up to date, and we experienced a few days of observational data outage. Hiro Gosden worked with Doyle George to get the proper dataset list back on the new FOS server. (H. Gosden)
An AC failure in the server room caused overheating problems for a couple of the servers. Two of the systems were shutdown remotely, but the one of the systems’ internal fans failed, and it was causing the other fans to work faster. The failed fan was replaced and the server is now back up. We will be investigating a system that may allow us to prevent this type of problem in the future, a system that will detect heat problems and shutdown the servers when necessary. (H. Gosden)
Tropical RAMSDIS Online was upgraded to use a new animation looper. Tropical RASMDIS Online now uses a java looper that has several features that were not available in the previous javascript looper. This looper features the ability to define the number of images to animate, loop forward, backward, rock, and zoom in on features. (D. Watson)
To Accepted and Submitted
Published:
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trend in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteor. Atmos Phy., 97, 19-28.
Knaff, J. A., C. R. Sampson, M. DeMaria, T. P. Marchok, J. M. Gross, and C. J. McAdie, 2007: Statistical Tropical Cyclone Wind Radii Prediction Using Climatology and Persistence. Weather and Forecasting, 22:4, 781–791.
Nothing to Report This Quarter.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, M. DeMaria, 2007: Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting.
Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2008: An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. Sampson, C.R., J.F. Franklin,
J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2007: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Weather and Forecasting.
Zehr, R.M. and J.A. Knaff, 2007: Atlantic major hurricanes, 1995-2005 – Characteristics based on best track, aircraft, and IR images. J. of Climate.
Brummer, R.L., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, B.H. Connell, J.F. Dostalek, D. Zupanski, 2008: GOES-R mesoscale product development. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Connell B.H., M. DeMaria, and J.F.W. Purdom, 2007: International activities: Weather briefings and training via the Internet, Fall Issue, CIRA Newsletter.
DeMaria, M. R. DeMaria, D.W. Hillger, R.Mazur, 2008: Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS soundings. 4th AMS Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – (NPOESS), 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, D.T. Lindsey, 2008: Improved calculations of legendre coefficients for use in generating synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-R ABI imagery. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Hillger, D.W., and R.L. Brummer, 2008: Real-time display of experimental GOES-R products. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Knabb, R., M. Mainelli, M. DeMaria, 2008: Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center, Special Symposium on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Lindsey, D.T., 2008: Examining a possible relationship between positive dominated storms and cloud-top ice crystal size. 3rd AMS Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, 2008: Development of severe weather products for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2008: Preparing for GOES-R+ user training and education, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Sengupta, M. L.D. Grasso, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, M. DeMaria, 2008: Quantifying uncertainties in fire size and temperature measured by GOES-R ABI, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.
Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.
Hillger, D.W., 2008: GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology.
Hillger, D.W., and T.J. Schmit, 2007: The GOES-13 Science Test: Imager and Sounder Radiance and Product Validations. NOAA/NESDIS Technical Report 125.
Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2009: Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Monthly Weather Review.
Nothing to Report This Quarter.
Presentations:
Hillger, D.W., and T.J. Schmit, 2007: Results of the GOES-13 (NOAA) Science Test: December 2006. Joint 2007 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference and the 15th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography Conference, 24-28 September, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Hillger, D.W., and M. DeMaria, 2007: GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Color Product Development. Joint 2007 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference and the 15th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography Conference, 24-28 September, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Lindsey, D.T. and L.D. Grasso, 2007: Numerical simulation of the effects of CCN on thunderstorm intensity and evolution. EUMETSAT Training Workshop on Interpretation of Satellite Images/ Products of Convective Storms, 5-7 September, Trieste, Italy.
Lindsey D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2007: Exploring the relationship between satellite-retrieved ice crystal size and thunderstorm intensity. 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, 10-14 September, Trieste, Italy.
Setvak, M., P. Novak, D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and M. Radova, 2007: Central European convective storms penetrating deep into the lower stratosphere – MSG IR and radar observations and radiative transfer modeling. 4th European Conference on Severe Storms, 10-14 September, Trieste, Italy.
The publication “GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager Color Product Development” for Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology: Atmospheres was returned after second review, pending acceptance. (D. Hillger)
A paper entitled “Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites” was written and submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. This paper was accepted with revision and is still pending. (L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, J. Dostalek, Renate Brummer, and M. DeMaria)
| Traveler | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
| A. Schumacher | Boulder, CO | WAS*IS | NCAR | 7/12-20 |
| K. Maclay | Boulder, CO | WRF Tutorial | Altimetry Data | 7/23-27 |
| M. DeMaria | Miami, FL | HRD & TPC Visits | AOML | 8/3-10 |
| A. Schumacher | Waterville Valley, NH | AMS Conference on Mesoscale Processes | GOES-13 PSDI | 8/5-9 |
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | GOES-R/GIMPAP/PSDI Reviews | GOES-R | 8/19-24 |
| D. Lindsey | Trieste, Italy | EUMETSAT Training Workshop on Interpretation of Satellite Images / Products of Convective Storms and the European Conference on Severe Storms | GIMPAP/EUMETSAT | 9/3-14 |
| R. Brummer | Amsterdam, the Netherlands | Joint 2007 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference and the 15th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography Conference | GOES-R | 9/24-28 |
Dr. Vilma Castro, a collaborator from The University of Costa Rica, gave a presentation to the 7th Computer Aided Learning in Meteorology (CALMet VII) Conference held in Beijing, China 2-7 July. The presentation entitled “International Satellite Weather Briefings via the Internet” detailed the work being done with the Focus Group activities in Central and South America and the Caribbean. The authors included V. Castro & B. Fallas, UCR Costa Rica, B. Connell, CIRA, A. Mostek & M. Davison, NWS USA,; KA Caesar, CIMH Barbados. (B. Connell)
L. Grasso co-authored two presentations that were presented at the 4th European Conference on Severe Storms held in Trieste, Italy, September 2007. (L. Grasso)
| Visitor | Affiliation | RAMMB CIRA Contact | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jochen Kerkmann | EUMETSAT | B. Connell, D. Lindsey | September 27 |
| Matthew Sapiano | CICS, University of Maryland | Don Hillger | August 20 – 24 |
| Emily Becker | CICS, University of Maryland | John Forsythe | August 13 -15 |
| Milwaukee group | John Knaff | August 1 |
Dr. Matthew Sapiano, a Post-Doctoral Fellow at CICS/University of Maryland, visited CIRA the week of 20-24 August 2007. Arrangements were made to meet with several RAMMB and CIRA scientists as well as some in the Department of Atmospheric Science and the Colorado Climate Center. Dr. Sapiano also gave a seminar titled “A New Global Analysis of Precipitation” that was well attended. (D. Hillger, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, D. Lindsey, J. Dostalek)
Photo of M. Sapiano, M. DeMaria, and D. Hillger at the main entrance to the CIRA building, CSU Foothills Campus, Fort Collins CO.
Jochen Kerkmann (EUMETSAT) visited RAMMB on September 27. He is a Satellite Meteorologist and training officer at EUMETSAT and has developed excellent training materials for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). MSG carries the SEVIRI instrument which has similarities to the GOES-R ABI. In preparation for GOES-R in both product development and training materials, it is very useful to learn about EUMETSAT’s experiences, i.e., what worked well and what didn’t. Jochen’s insights will be very useful. (B. Connell, D. Lindsey and M. DeMaria)
Annual Review Meetings were completed with all RAMMB employees. (M. DeMaria)
Three years worth of global WWLLN data was purchased from the University of Washington for work in the GOES-R project. (H. Gosden)