Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Tropical Cyclone (TC) production system for the National Data Exploitation (NDE) system first Delivery Algorithm Package v1.1 (DAP) was initially tested and delivered on June 28th, 2013. With recommendations from the first accepted DAP, development began on the next version (v1.2) during this quarter. Improvements included inclusion of a GFS GRIB file to the CIRA pack file format conversion software, migrating system environment variables to the NESDIS process control file (PCF) framework, logging and error handling upgrades, minor bug fixes, and updated documentation. Collaboration and development of production rules, i.e. at what time intervals/conditions is the system to be run, were also completed. NPP TC v1.2 is currently undergoing case and semi-real time testing and will being real time testing when the MiRS ATMS becomes available (expected October 2013). (S. Longmore)

A series of Linux shell scripts, Python scripts, and Fortran programs was set up at CIRA to process in real time Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS) soundings from polar-orbiting satellites NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A.  The soundings are used to create 3-D wind fields in the vicinity of tropical cyclones.  The MIRS soundings, based on a 1-D variational approach, are NESDIS’ operational microwave retrievals and are an upgrade to the statistical retrieval technique currently used to generate the wind fields.  The code will eventually be included in the operational suite of products maintained by the Office of Satellite and Product Operations.  (J. Dostalek)

Code is being developed which performs a comparison of temperature profiles derived from the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS), NESDIS’ operational microwave retrieval package, and an older retrieval method which has been used for many years at the RAMM Branch.  The comparisons will be made in the vicinity of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and will use collocated dropsondes as ground truth.  Once the temperature retrieval comparisons are completed, further evaluation of the two retrieval methods will be conducted using various products derived from the temperature retrievals, such as the horizontal wind field, the vertical velocity profile, and the maximum potential intensity. (J. Dostalek)

Much of the tropical cyclone structure (i.e., large vs. small) can be represented by a single diagnostic, the Simplified Holland B parameter (SHB, Knaff et al. 2011).  This parameter is now being estimated from the global tropical cyclone advisory information and is available on the TC-Realtime web page.  SHB is estimated solely from TC vital information and thus provides information about how the operational centers are initializing their forecast guidance.   Central pressure varies with the pressure of the outermost closed isobar, intensity and wind radii via the Courtney and Knaff (2009) method and the storm-relative intensity is estimated empirically using the TC motion and intensity estimates.   An example for East Pacific Hurricane Henriette, a very small TC, is shown below.  Note that large SHB indicates compact systems.   It is hoped that routine inspection of the SHB will lead to 1) better initial estimates of TC structure at warning agencies and 2) new insights into how TC structure evolves. (J. Knaff)

Caption:  Time series of (red) simplified Holland B for Hurricane Henriette (2013).  Also provided are the upper and lower bounds of SHB from climatology.  Note that for much of Henriette’s life time it is analyzed as a very small TC (large SHB).

Gempak/N-AWIPS grid files containing Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analyses (MTCSWA) that can be viewed in N-AWIPS are now being provided to NHC.  This was done to expedite NHC’s use of these surface wind fields on their operational platform, a process that started over a year ago.  These grids are currently being created for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, East Pacific and Central Pacific basins and are being disseminated from CIRA’s ftp server. (J. Knaff)

Using archived GOES data on CLASS and the CIRA ground station, the CIRA tropical cyclone IR image archive and 16 km Water Vapor (WV) imagery archives have been lengthened.  The CIRA TC IR image archive has been expanded to include half-hourly images of east Pacific tropical cyclones for 1996, 1995, and 1994 (12336 storm centered images) a Historical WV imagery in the Northern Hemisphere now contains data from 1994, 1995, and most of 1996.  The later imagery has been used for development of the operational tropical cyclone formation product and a tropical cyclone recurvature product.  We will continue to improve these archives in the next quarter.  (J. Knaff)

As part of the NCEP supercomputer upgrades, the CIRA/NESDIS Operation AMSU-based tropical cyclone fixes have been updated to use data from NOAA19 and MetOp-A satellites in addition to NOAA15, NOAA16, and NOAA18.   The methodology remains the same as documented in Demuth (2004, 2006) and provides both intensity and structure (i.e., significant wind radii estimates) fixes for global tropical cyclones.  This additional data significantly increases the number of fixes available to global tropical cyclone forecasters.  This accomplishment completes a PSDI project begun in 2008, noting that the AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite was also proposed, but was shut off by NCO for other reasons.   A plot of the intensity estimates from the five satellites for Tropical Storm Jebi (wp092013) demonstrates how both MetOp-A and NOAA19 fixes provide greater temporal continuity over this storms life time, noting the relatively few NOAA15 and NOAA18 fixes. (J. Knaff, J. Dostalek, M. DeMaria)

Caption: This panel shows (red line) the working best track intensity of Typhoon Utor (wp112013) along with the AMSU-based intensity estimates provided by the dots.  Information about the satellite source is provided by the legend to the right.

In preparation for GOES-R methods to estimate tropical cyclone size from remotely sensed data were developed.  Tropical cyclone size, which is defined here as the radius of where the TC wind field is indistinguishable from the background flow in a climatological environment, is empirically estimated from the principle components of the azimuthally averaged IR brightness temperatures and storm latitude.  The estimate is provided in units of degrees latitude.  We have provided real-time plots of this TC size metric on our TC realtime web page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/).  The plots below show the real-time size estimates from the two active named storms on August 2, 2013.  The methodology and resulting climatology has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Climate.   This product, which is determined from observations, nicely complements the analysis of the simplified Holland B, which is derived from the TC vitals provided by operational centers.   (J. Knaff)

Caption:  IR-based tropical cyclone size estimates for Tropical Storm Jebi (wp092013) and Hurricane Gil (ep072013).  The light dashed lines provide the standard deviations of global size as a function of intensity.   These time series indicate that Tropical Storm Jebi is much larger than Hurricane Gil.  To provide a visual examples of these size differences, IR images of both tropical cyclones at the time of their maximum intensity are provided below each time series plot. Tropical Storm Jebi and Hurricane Gil had estimated maximum intensities of 60 and 75 knots at 06 UTC and 00 UTC on August 2, respectively. 

Work to get GOES Sounder RGB Airmass product in AWIPS-II:  The National Hurricane Center GOES-R Proving Ground (PG) 2012 annual report states that the RAMMB/SPoRT GOES Sounder RGB Air Mass product is one of the most highly utilized PG products. The product uses GOES-13 & 15 sounder data to simulate future features the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (at a lower resolution). RAMMB is tasked with evaluating and providing feedback on the expansion of the National Centers Perspective (NCP) RGB capabilities. Given that AWIPS II hardware can handle 32 bit imagery, software should be tested to ensure RGB generation capabilities once GOES-R data becomes available.  Our testing made use of the NCP version of the AWIPS II software. While not a true 32 bit RGB display, the AWIPS II NCP software provides some capacity for combining 8 bit red, green & blue images + alpha channel into a single display.  Our evaluation efforts however have revealed that additional NCP software enhancements are still needed to allow for full exploitation of the AWIPS II RGB capabilities in order to realize the full potential of GOES-R era products – failing to be able to generate the relatively simple GOES Sounder airmass RGB product properly. (D. Molenar, J. Knaff)

D. Hillger and J. Knaff represented StAR/CoRP/RAMMB, giving a presentation to visitor Kevin Kelleher, Acting Director of Global Systems Division (GSD), on 16 August 2013.  The RAMMB talk was one of several presentations on CIRA-related activities.  (D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) is in the process of developing an improved Typhoon risk model for the Asian/Pacific region.  The purpose of this short meeting was to discuss progress on their new parametric surface wind model for estimating winds with tropical cyclones that are transitioning to extra tropical cyclones, and how they are attempting to reconcile the differences in the western North Pacific best track intensity information.  These are common interest topics that, from the NESDIS prospective, could lead to improved operational products.  RMS has asked that J. Knaff participate in a more comprehensive review in late October in London. (J. Knaff)

RAMMB and CIRA personnel participated in joint tropical weather briefings with NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division the week of 26-30 August 2013 via telecom and GoToMeeting.  Monday and Tuesday’s discussions were given by J. Dunion (U. Miami) and R. Rogers (HRD), respectively; and Wednesday – Friday’s discussions were presented by CSU graduate student G. Alaka – who did a great job.  HRD uses these discussions to plan and coordinate field experiment activities. Discussions concentrated on the very inactive Atlantic tropical cyclone basin.  (J. Knaff)

A one-hour briefing on improvements to statistical tropical cyclone intensity forecast products was provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) via conference call and GoToMeeting. New versions of the SHIPS, LGEM and the Rapid Intensification Index (RII) statistical intensity models are being implemented in operations for JTWC. The old version of SHIPS did not include any satellite data, and the LGEM and RII were not available before for their areas of responsibility. Applications of lightning data were also described as part of the Proving Ground activities. A similar briefing was provided in person to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), with a greater emphasis on the Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific.  (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

D. Hillger and J. Knaff at StAR/CoRP/RAMMB attended the online NOAA CREST Brown Bag Seminar presented by Equisha Glenn on 15 August 2013.  The topic was “Influence of SSTs Changes on the Caribbean Low Level Jet and Moisture Transport Variability in the Intra-Americas Region.”  (D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

Based on a user request (Luis Rosa, SOO at the WFO in San Juan, PR), the Orographic Rain Index (ORI) product is now available in AWIPS via the LDM for San Juan.  Stan Kidder (developer of the ORI product) made the necessary changes to include an ORI product domain over Puerto Rico that utilizes a wind layer of 1000-900 mb. 

Hiro Gosden made the necessary changes in the CIRA suite of GOES-R Proving Ground products to include the ORI product over the Puerto Rico domain, being distributed through the NWS Southern Region.  Dan Bikos and Ed Szoke developed a VISIT training session to accompany this product.  The teletraining with San Juan took place on July 12. (D. Bikos, E. Szoke, H. Gosden)

CIRA was represented virtually at the 10th International Conference on Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet) held 26-30 August 2013 in Toulouse, France.  CALMet provides a forum to share experiences, expectations, and new ideas for applying emerging strategies for meteorology and hydrology in education and training.  B. Connell gave a very early morning virtual talk on 28 August on the topic “Adding the personal touch: A renewed look at presentation, complicated information, and the audience.”  Co-authors were Luciane Veeck, WMO VLab and CIRA, and Kathy-Ann Caesar, CIMH Barbados.  We are looking forward to continued discussions on the topic on the newly launched CALMet Blog. (D. Lindsey)

VIIRS “True Color” imagery (an RGB composite of channels M-3, M-4 and M-5) is useful for observing atmospheric aerosols such as dust and smoke. The image below shows a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust plume as it began pushing away from western Africa on 30 July 2013. By 2 August 2013, this dust plume extended all the way from the African continent to the Lesser Antilles and covered an area larger than the continental United States. Additional images of this dust plume may be found at the JPSS Imagery Team Blog: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/blog/index.php/uncategorized/abafado-bruma-seca/ (C. Seaman)

Figure: VIIRS True Color RGB composite from 15:07 UTC 30 July 2013, showing a surge of dust in the Saharan Air Layer pushing away from the African continent and over the Cape Verde islands.

D. Lindsey gave a virtual presentation entitled “Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation” as part of the new GOES-R Science Seminar series.  The talk provided an overview of a GOES-R Risk Reduction project that began about two years ago. This was the first talk in the new GOES-R Science Seminar Series. (D. Lindsey)

A final report of the “NWS Central Region GOES-R Fog and Low Stratus Demonstration”, which was conducted from 1 August 2012 – 31 December 2012, was prepared by Chad Gravelle (NWS OPG GOES-R Liaison). One of the products evaluated was CIRA’s 4 km NSSL WRF 10.35-3.9 μm Simulated Satellite Imagery. The report summarizes the use of this product by forecasters:

• The majority of forecasters (67%) used the Simulated Satellite Forecasts to update their short term forecasts.
• The Simulated Satellite Forecasts were included in 19 NWS Area Forecast Discussions.
• Almost half of forecasters thought the Simulated Satellite Forecasts were extremely or very useful, and 86 percent were either extremely or very likely to use the products again.

Despite model limitations and errors in the forecasts, results from the WRF Simulated Satellite Forecast evaluation show there is a need for this type of information when producing short-term forecasts.  (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)

GOES-14 was used to gather 1-minute data during a test period from 13-28 August 2013.  Using CIRA’s ground station, the data was collected, converted to NAWIPS format, and sent to the Storm Prediction Center, where it was displayed in real time on their operational systems.  Their normal data feed did not allow access to the special GOES-14 data.  On 2 separate occasions, the 1-minute imagery was mentioned in a Mesoscale Discussion, including the one from the screenshot below.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  Screengrab from the SPC website showing a Mesoscale Discussion from 26 August 2013 in which GOES-14 1-minute data is mentioned.

The 2013 Aviation Weather Center (AWC) Summer Experiment was held during the weeks of Aug. 12 and 19.  Similar to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)’s Spring Experiment, the goal is to evaluate a number of experimental products in pseudo-operations.  E. Szoke attended in person to help with the product evaluation and to provide expertise on the CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground products that are being tested.  A blog was routinely updated during the experiment here: http://goesrawt.blogspot.com/  (D. Lindsey, E. Szoke)

Real-time synthetic GOES-R imagery is being produced from the 4 km NSSL WRF-ARW.  A comparison of anvils between observed GOES-13 at 10.7 µm and synthetic GOES-R at 10.35 µm (NSSL WRF-ARW) was conducted (Figure 1). Note the discrepancy in the comparison of the areal extent and temperatures of the anvils extending northward from Arkansas to Illinois then eastward to Pennsylvania. These results suggest a weakness with the WSM6 microphysics that is used in the NSSL WRF-ARW runs. At focus is the lack of simulated cloud ice.

A B

 Figure 1: Remapped (A) Observed and (B) synthetic GOES-13 10.7 µm from 11 April 2013 at 0015 and 0000 UTC, respectively.

As a result, we have initiated a collaborative effort with the developers of the WSM6 microphysics package: Dr. Song-You Hong and Dr. Kyo-Sun Lim. We suggested some alterations to their microphysics package and they agreed to run some 2D sensitivity simulation to test our ideas. To be brief, our idea was to reduce the conversion of cloud water to graupel and reduce the conversion of cloud ice to snow. Results from their tests suggest our ideas did indeed increase the total cloud ice amount. As can be seen below in Figure 2a, the difference between a control run—no changes to the code—and a run to maximize cloud ice shows increased ice at the top of an idealized 2D thunderstorm. Another way to demonstrate the increase in cloud ice, compared to a control run, is a vertical profile of each hydrometeor type (Figure 2b). In particular, cloud ice—shown in red—increased significantly. Results of this collaboration will be put together for a peer reviewed paper. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

A

B

Figure 2: (A) 2D and time averaged and (B) vertically and temporally averaged differences between a control run and a run with modified conversion later. Red shading in (A) and the red contour in (B) indicate an increase in cloud ice compared to the control simulation.

Work began this quarter to increase the speed of the computations that produce synthetic GOES-R and GOES-13 imagery from the 4 km NSSL WRF-ARW. Migration from the CIRA observational operator to the CRTM_v2.0.5 and other techniques are being implemented. To date, the production of synthetic GOES-13 imagery is finished. Work continues on the generation of synthetic GOES-R imagery. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)

Dakota Smith, a Hollings Scholar from Penn St. Univ., concluded his time at CSU this week. D. Lindsey is serving as his co-mentor, along with Prof. Scott Denning from the CSU Dept. of Atmospheric Science. Dakota’s project is entitled “Seasonal Variations of Water, Energy, and Carbon Fluxes Across a Moisture Gradient,” and he presented a poster with his results in July at the Science and Education Symposium in Silver Spring, MD. (D. Lindsey)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

7 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 14 teletraining signups, 35 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  110
Completions:  79

LMS totals from January 2005 through September 17, 2013:
Registrations:  6348
Completions: 4047

Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.

Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training that debuted this quarter:

“Orographic Rain Index (ORI) Product” by Dan Bikos and Ed Szoke (CIRA).
Updated version of “Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC” (by Jaime Rhome, Chris Landsea (NHC), Mark DeMaria (NESDIS/StAR)  and Andrea Schumacher (CIRA).

New training forum:

VISIT Satellite Chat – Virtual interactive training sessions that are intended to:
a) be brief, target length of 30 minutes.
b) demonstrate satellite products that can be applied to operational forecasting.
c) exchange ideas across both operational and academic sides.
d) identify new training topics based on specific participant needs.
e) incorporate seasonal examples that are timely, and use real-time data (where applicable).

Chat sessions during this quarter have included topics of flooding, western fires, SAL events over the Atlantic and tropical applications.  Invited participants include Marshall Huffman (NHC/TAFB) and Sheldon Kusselson (SAB).  One of the participants was interested in a particular topic that led to VISIT teletraining participation. 

As of September 18, 2013, there have been 21 VISIT Satellite Chat sessions for a total of 60 NWS forecast office signups.  We started in February 2012 with one morning chat session and in September went to two chat sessions: one in the morning and one in the afternoon.  This allowed for more flexibility in participation from NWS offices, as well as other researchers and trainers.

Recorded versions of past satellite chat sessions are available here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/satellite_chat/

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4-km WRF-ARW model in temperature forecasting related to sky cover.

VISIT web-page traffic:

• The following is a summary of VISIT web-page traffic for the quarter (from Google Analytics), there were 2169 pageviews for the quarter:

Collaboration:

D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training communities.  The blog averages about 400 pageviews per month.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 17, 2012.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

Meetings and Calls

VISIT/SHyMet had a conference call on July 30.

E. Szoke, D. Bikos and B. Connell attended the GOES-R Proving Ground conference calls.

This year’s Aviation Weather Testbed (AWT) Summer Experiment took place in Kansas City over two weeks on 12-16 August and 19-23 August.  Ed Szoke participated in the first week as a representative of the CIRA’s GOES-R Proving Ground group.  The objectives of the experiment included testing and evaluating new and emerging aviation weather data sets and aviation weather decision support tools.  For the summer experiment (there is also a winter counterpart) one focus is also on convective products from high-resolution deterministic models and ensembles that can aid in the forecast process on the operational desks. 

Participants included forecasters from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and a wide variety of researchers and operational meteorologists.  My overriding impression of the AWT Summer Experiment was its more informal structure, as compared to the longer-running Spring Experiment held annually in Norman at the Hazardous Weather Testbed.  In the AWT Summer Experiment, there were five “forecast desks” set up in a room set apart from AWC operations.  Four of the stations mimicked operational desks and one was a GOES-R situational awareness desk.  Each operational desk was staffed by a rotating forecaster from the AWC (or the National Aviation Control Center).  In addition, there were representatives of some specific aviation-related programs, such as NCAR’s nowcasting algorithm, and representatives of related GOES-R activities.  Typically the non-operational participants were free to spend time with any of the desks, which allowed for close interaction with the AWC operational forecasters.  I was also able to spend a little time on the last day shadowing one of the Global Forecasters on his shift in the AWC.

Activities included a review of the day’s weather and forecasts at the end of the day, and in the morning a chance to hear the operational briefing that occurs between the National Aviation Control Center and the various Air Traffic Control Centers (the one in our region being in Longmont, Colorado).  On Wednesday of the first week an unanticipated early daybreak fog event shut down the Denver International Airport for more than an hour, and with the help of a forecaster who had worked with United Airlines that I had known since the late 1980s, we put together a review of the event for the end of the day summary, noting in particular some of the potential from CIRA GOES-R related products such as synthetic and GeoColor imagery (even though the emphasis of the summer experiment was on convection, there was interest in this diversion).  An additional component of the AWT Summer Experiment was a daily “Brown Bag Seminar”, and on Friday I gave an overview talk on CIRA’s GOES-R products that would be of interest to aviation.  One thing noted was that many of the CIRA products would be more applicable to the AWT Winter Experiment, and we look forward to participating in the next one, currently scheduled for 2015. (D. Bikos, E. Szoke, B. Connell)

1. Preparations for proposed SHyMet course:  GOES-R Instruments and Products

A preliminary organizational call was held between the SHyMet teams at CIRA and CIMSS 19 November 2012 to discuss how the course should be structured and executed, what in-house training modules were candidates for the new course, and how do we decide which external training modules to include in the course.  A second call was held on 30 November and invited Proving Ground Satellite Liaisons, COMET, SPoRT, and other researchers to provide input on training that they have that would be relevant for the new SHyMet course.  More recently, a conference call was held on April 22 to consider what training modules could be included, as well as identification of potential training material.

Course structure:  A customized / personalized training experience with training needs assessed during signup.

Course execution:  Assign the individual modules at the time of registration.  The web-pages will group the various topics but we will ask the student at the time of registration their training needs, then determine which modules to assign.

Current list of in-house modules (containing 70% or more GOES-R PG product content):

• Introduction to GOES-R (abbreviated version of GOES-R 101)
• Forecaster Training for the GOES-R Fog/low stratus (FLS) Products.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Cyclogenesis.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Low Clouds and Fog.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Orographic Cirrus.
• The UW NearCasting Product.
• Convective Cloud-top Cooling and UW Convective Initiation.

Potential External Modules:

A. GOES-R Satellite Liaisons (Amanda Terborg, Michael Folmer, and Chad Gravelle):

• Cloud Top Cooling
• RGB air mass / dust product
• CIMSS ABI WES case content
• Fog / low stratus (already included above)

B. COMET (Patrick Dills and Wendy Abshire)

• GOES-R Benefits of next generation monitoring (multiple parts).
• ABI module (early 2013 release).
• Companion module for GLM (future release).

There will be training modules that cover Air Quality and Space Weather included.

Potential reference material containing less than 70% GOES-R content:
RGB products explained, Atmospheric dust, Forecasting dust storms, Volcanic ash observation tools and dispersion models, GOES channel selection (version 2), GOES channel selection (version 2),  Satellite monitoring of atmospheric composition, and Multispectral applications: monitoring the wildland fire cycle.

We will need introductory modules to briefly give an overview of how GOES-R preparations got to where they are now. We will include why there might be more than one product, as well as what to expect before and after launch.

2. The following 4 courses continue to be administered:

1. SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.  Released March 2011. Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

Core courses:

• Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
• Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
• GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
• Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

Optional courses:

• Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
• The UW Convective Initiation Product.
• Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
• Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

2. Tropical SHyMet.  Released August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

3. SHyMet For Forecasters Learning Plan:  Released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp

This Development Plan includes:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
9. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

4. SHyMet Intern Learning Plan: Released April 2006
The SHyMet Intern course consists of 9 modules.
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp). 

Metrics for the 4 SHyMet courses:

Non-NOAA:
Intern:  44 Registrations; 14 known completions

3. International training that builds on efforts of the VISIT and SHyMet Programs, and enhances communication and exchange of information with international training partners:

CIRA was represented virtually at the 10th International Conference on Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet) held 26-30 August 2013 in Toulouse, France. CALMet provides a forum to share experiences, expectations, and new ideas for applying emerging strategies for meteorology and hydrology in education and training. B. Connell gave a very early morning virtual talk on 28 August on the topic Adding the personal touch: A renewed look at presentation, complicated information, and the audience. Co-authors were Luciane Veeck, WMO VLab and CIRA, and Kathy-Ann Caesar, CIMH Barbados. We are looking forward to continued discussions on the topic on the newly launched CALMet Blog.  (B. Connell, D. Bikos, E. Szoke)

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (25 July, 28 August, and 12 September 2013) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp).   We used GoToWebinar for voice over the Internet.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the International Desk at NCEP, NWS Training Division, NWS/NHC, and UCAR/IA-NWS as well as outside the U.S.: Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Panamá, Peru, St. Kitts and Nevis, Niger, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters and other trainers.  All sessions were well attended as represented by 12, 11, and 8 countries reaching 33, 22, and 33 participants respectively for July, August, and September.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussions.  Typically, the sessions include a look at Water Vapor imagery for a synoptic overview of Central America and the Caribbean as well as for South America.  The IR 10.7 um imagery and Visible imagery are used to look more closely at weather features.  We look at MJO patterns and the outlook, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) patterns, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and anomalies.  Imagery from a recent weather feature is often highlighted.  In July, there was a strong cold front that pushed north into Brazil; in August and September we saw evidence of dry air and dust in the tropical Atlantic and viewed dust RGB imagery.  In September, we also looked at Hurricane Humberto.  Participants provided comments and questions related to the local weather in their regions.  Recordings of the July and September sessions as well as previous sessions can be found here (no recording from August due to technical difficulties):  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/fg_recording.asp

During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 4-week archive feature:  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/

GEONETCast Americas VLab Training Channel
CIRA in collaboration with Paul Seymour of NOAA’s Direct Readout Service is sending training materials through a GEONETCast Americas channel called “VLab Training”.  In July and September, the Focus group recordings were transmitted through the VLab Training channel.  We continue to do this on a monthly basis and are also evaluating what other training can be sent through GEONETCast.  We are also planning a virtual GEONETCast Training Event week that will be presented in both English and Spanish and will take place this fall.  There will be 3 sessions on 3 separate days that will introduce and provide background information for GEONETCast Americas, highlight presentations from countries that are using GEONETCast, and show how GEONETCast efforts tie in with WMO assessments of regional data and software requirements.  (B. Connell, D. Watson, K. Micke)

JPSS Imagery Cal/Val Website Update: As a follow-up to the testing of VIIRS SDR geolocation accuracy, the accuracy of the I-band and NCC Imagery EDR geolocation was tested using animations created from at least a year’s worth of images. These image loops provide qualitative assessment of the geolocation accuracy. Results show that the I-band and NCC EDR geolocations are accurate and stable, although some slight shifting of pixels occurs due to the remapping that takes place as the SDRs are converted into EDRs. Results may be found at the JPSS Imagery Cal/Val website: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/calval/ (C. Seaman, D. Hillger)

Suomi NPP VIIRS NCC Imagery Provisional Maturity Review: D. Hillger presented materials to support the Provisional Maturity declaration for VIIRS Near Constant Contrast (NCC) Imagery on 22 August 2013.  The review is another step in the checkout of VIIRS NCC Imagery Environmental Data Records (EDRs).  With this step, NCC Imagery was declared “Provisional” dated back to 10 July 2013 when there was a Build 7.2 software upgrade allowing a great increase in usable NCC Imagery.  Before that point there were many fill values in VIIRS NCC granules, as a result of the inability of the look up tables to handle very low moonlight conditions which occur near and during new moon phases.  (D. Hillger)

Interesting Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery: In the random sampling of VIIRS Imagery granules and generation of image products, as a means of checking image quality, the attached image of a VIIRS longwave IR granule centered over Antarctica was captured.  The features of interest are the yellow signatures of katabatic cold air drainage off of the much higher Antarctic plateau (on the left) onto the lower ice shelf (center).  For image products created from other random VIIRS granules see http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: VIIRS longwave IR image over the edge of the Antarctica plateau, revealing katabatic winds (air drainage off the higher land to the left) onto the lower-level ice shelf (center).  There are generally no clouds associated with these winds.  Note that the draining air is warmer (~-30ºC, yellow) than the air on the ice shelf (~-40ºC, magenta), but the warm air eventually mixes or cools off and the warm signature disappears.

Interesting Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery: In the random sampling of VIIRS Imagery granules and generation of image products, as a means of checking image quality, the attached natural-color image of a VIIRS granule centered over northern Iraq was captured.  The features of interest are the black smoke plumes from three or more oil well fires.  Can you find the much-smaller fourth plume, to the west of the granule center?  For image products created from other random VIIRS granules see http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: VIIRS Natural-color image combination (R/G/B, band M10/M7/M5, 1.61/0.86/0.67 µm) over northern Iraq, that happened to capture the black smoke from three or more oil well fires near the center of the VIIRS granule.  In this image combination, vegetated surfaces are green, non-vegetated land is tan/brown, clouds are white-to-cyan, water is black, and deep cyan colors might be salt flats.

VIIRS Imagery for fixed locations:  A new type of image product is being added to the VIIRS online information.  VIIRS granules are now captured when they cover Colorado and are remapped into a fixed polar-stereographic projection centered over Colorado.  Images are available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/npp_viirs.asp#Colorado-Centered_Image_Products.  Images over Colorado should be generated twice daily, once with each (ascending and descending) pass of Suomi NPP, but the bugs are still being worked out of the scripts that capture and display the imagery.  Eventually, other types of images and image products will be produced, as well as for other locations, with the intent of capturing images that can be used to observe and assess VIIRS image quality twice daily.  (D. Hillger)

Figure: VIIRS M15 (10.7 µm) image at 0850 UTC on 25 July 2013 mapped into a polar-stereographic projection centered over Colorado.  This is one frame of a new VIIRS image loop that can be used to assess VIIRS image quality.

VIIRS M and I-Band Noise Levels:  An analysis of VIIRS noise levels was accomplished by the EDR Imagery Team, even though that is primary the responsibility of the VIIRS SDR Team.  Code developed for noise level analysis of GOES Imagery was tailored to VIIRS imagery and tested on selected VIIRS SDR Imagery granules.  The noise levels obtained compared well with equivalent post-launch NEdTs for the VIIRS emissive bands, and with Signal-to-Noise Ratios for the VIIRS reflective bands.  Anyone interested in the particular results can contact the EDR Team for the specifics.  The noise level determination is done by structure function analysis, basically extrapolating the gradient out of an image field, so that what remains is just the random noise component.  The technique was developed for, and applied to, most of the current GOES series, and published in NOAA Technical Reports for those satellites.  (D. Hillger)

VIIRS Granule Manipulation within McIDAS-X:  A number of pieces of code have been developed to work with VIIRS granules within McIDAS-X, which does not have full data manipulation capabilities when working with data not on a McIDAS server.  This limitation has slowed work on VIIRS within McIDAS-X, but many tools have been developed to work around the limitations.  In particular, one new tool/program allows adjacent granules to be split and combined as needed, which is helpful when a feature of interest is on the edge of a granule.  Other programs can be used to fill in the bowtie deletions in SDRs, as well as rotate the upside-down view of granules that were obtained from ascending orbit passes, so that north is at the top of the image without having to remap imagery into a different projection.  (D. Hillger)

VIIRS Imagery Requirements for JPSS:  The JPSS EDR Imagery Team has been working with L. Williams at Aerospace to formalize the documents that include the Level 3 requirements for Suomi NPP, as a lead into future JPSS requirements.  The Imagery Team was consulted to make sure the requirements in the original Level 1 documents are carried forward and that they are also fitting for the EDR Imagery, including Near Constant Contrast (NCC) Imagery.  (D. Hillger)

Altering VIIRS M-band Imagery EDRs:  C. Seaman has been involved in the checkout of M-band EDRs that are not currently being produced operationally.  Only 6 of the 16 M bands are currently turned into EDRs, but the choice of which 6 of the M bands is to be flexible.  Unfortunately, it looks like the testing of this flexibility, which was done offline, is under question, with possibly some hard coding within the software that does not allow the M-band flexibility that was intended.   Testing will continue, to resolve this issue.  The Imagery Team is also pushing for EDRs to be produced from all 16 M bands at some point in the future.  (D. Hillger, C. Seaman)

• 100% of special GOES-14 data transmission was ingest & archived.
• New system procurement & configuration is underway.  2 new high end tropical systems & 40 TB NAS device have been configured.   Upgrade of AWIPS I LDM system and student hourly Windows systems is in progress; new CSU Procurement system is complicating purchase.
• Wx Lab AWIPS I was ported to a new system due to old system failure. 
• New AWIPS II RGB development system has been configured & delivered to Scott Longmore.  Training on AWIPS II basics & internals is underway.
• Existing AWIPS II real-time system has been upgraded in preparation for move to CIRA Wx Lab.  Development of training for research staff on utilization is underway.
• The Sounder Air Mass red, green & blue image files have been ingest & displayed using the AWIPS II National Centers Perspective to begin evaluation of existing overlay capabilities.  (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Goni, G. J, J.A. Knaff, I-I. Lin, 2013: [The Tropics] Tropical Cyclone Heat Content [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94:8, S99-S100. (August)

Hillger, D.W., T. Kopp, T. Lee, D.T. Lindsey, C. Seaman, S.D. Miller, J. Solbrig, S.Q. Kidder, S. Bachmeier, T. Jasmin, and T. Rink, 2013: First Light Imagery from Suomi NPP VIIRS. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94: 7, 1019-1029, plus cover images. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00097.1 (July)

Knapp, K.R., J.A. Knaff, C.R. Sampson, G. Riggio, and A. Schnapp, 2013: A pressure-based analysis of the historical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity record. Mon. Wea. Rev.,141, 2611–2631. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00323.1 (August)

Sharma, N., M.M. Ali, J.A. Knaff, and  P. Chand, 2013: A soft-computing cyclone intensity prediction scheme for the Western North Pacific Ocean. Atmosph. Sci. Lett., 14,187–192. doi: 10.1002/asl2.438 (July)

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., D.T. Lindsey, L.D. Grasso, D.W. Hillger, 2013: Synthetic Satellite Imagery Development at CIRA, 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Chirokova, G., M. DeMaria, R.T. DeMaria, 2013: Applications of JPSS Imagers and Sounders to Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasting. 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Seaman, C., D.W. Hillger, S.D. Miller, D.T. Lindsey, 2013: Suomi-NPP VIIRS Imagery: RGB Applications and Product Development at CIRA, 2013 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference & 19th American Meteorological Society AMS Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography, and Climatology Conference 16-20 September, Vienna, Austria.

Toth, G.; and D.W. Hillger, 2013: A philatelic history of climate change, Weatherwise, 65, p.34-38. (July/August)

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Ali, M., N. Sharma, J.A. Knaff, 2013: A Soft-computing Cyclone Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric Science Letters.

DeMaria, M., C.R. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, K.D. Musgrave, 2013: Is Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Improving? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Jin, Y., S. Wang, J. Nachamkin, J.D. Doyle, G. Thompson, L.D. Grasso, T. Holt, J. Moskaitis, H. Jin, R.M. Hodur, Q. Zhao, M. Liu, and M. DeMaria, 2013: Evaluation of Microphysical Parameterizations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Knaff, J.A., S. Longmore, D.A. Molenar, 2013: An objective satellite-based tropical cyclone size climatology. Journal of Climate.  

Lang, T.J., S.A. Rutledge, B. Dolan, P. Krehbiel, W. Rison, D.T. Lindsey, 2013: Lightning in Wildfire Smoke Plumes Observed in Colorado during Summer 2012. Mon.Wea.Rev.

Zhang, M., M. Zupanski, M-J Kim, J.A. Knaff, 2013:  Assimilating AMSU-A Radiances in TC Inner Core with NOAA Operational HWRF and a Hybrid Data Assimilation System: Danielle (2010). Mon. Wea. Rev.

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Apodaca, K., M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and L.D. Grasso, 2013: Lightning data assimilation into a quasi-operational numerical weather prediction model through hybrid variational-ensemble methods, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2013:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Quiring, S., A. Schumacher, and S. Guikema, 2013: Incorporating Hurricane Forecast Uncertainty into Decision Support Applications, Bull. of the American Meteorological Society.

Schmit,T.J., S.J. Goodman, D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, K.M. Bedka, M.M. Gunshor, J.L. Cintineo, C.S. Velden, A.S. Bachmeier, S.S. Lindstrom, and C.C. Schmidt, 2013: GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan Operations to Prepare forGOES-R. JARS.

Seaman, C.J. and S.D. Miller, 2013: VIIRS Captures Aurora Motions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2013: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited CIRA on Wednesday and Thursday 7/10-11. He is collaborating with CIRA/RAMMB on a number of GOES-R3 and GIMPAP projects, so we spent the majority of his visit discussing ideas and future plans for these projects. (D. Lindsey)

D. Hillger and J. Knaff represented StAR/CoRP/RAMMB, giving a presentation to visitor Kevin Kelleher, Acting Director of Global Systems Division (GSD), on 16 August 2013. The RAMMB talk was one of several presentations on CIRA-related activities. (D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

The article on the Yarnell Hill fire in the New York Times mentioned in the previous weekly appeared in the Sunday print and online editions, and the link is here: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/07/us/a-painful-mix-of-fire-wind-and-questions.html  D. Lindsey provided some GOES imagery and some meteorological interpretation for parts of the article.  (D. Lindsey)

• Quarterly meetings were held with RAMMB/CIRA IT staff to discuss project progress and additional goals
• D. Molenar participated in bi-weekly AWIPS II EPDT & Raytheon Developer’s Forum telecons.
• D. Molenar participated in monthly ITAC & NDE-AWIPS telecons.
• D. Molenar participated in GOESR-PG telecon & CoRP All Hands telecon.

D. Hillger and J. Knaff at StAR/CoRP/RAMMB attended the online NOAA CREST Brown Bag Seminar presented by Equisha Glenn on 15 August 2013.  The topic was “Influence of SSTs Changes on the Caribbean Low Level Jet and Moisture Transport Variability in the Intra-Americas Region.”  (D. Hillger, J. Knaff)

Members of the RAMMB viewed the NOAA approved EEO video Fly Girls, which documented the efforts of Women’s Air force Service Pilots (WASPs) during the Second World War.   (M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar)

• D. Molenar attended the SPoRT AWIPS II code development training session in Huntsville, AL, from 9/24-9/26.  The D2D software that provides 24 bit RGB display of VIIRS data was reviewed and modified to evaluate capacity for future expansion to include more general RGB capabilities. 
• D. Molenar completed NOAA IT Security training and Sunflower Inventory system training.

J. Knaff completed the NSI refresher training course for FY13.  This will allow him to retain his current national security clearance. (J. Knaff)

Members of the RAMMB viewed the NOAA approved EEO/Diversity video Fly Girls, which documented the efforts of Women’s Air force Service Pilots (WASPs) during the Second World War. (M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar)

All the federal employees at StAR/CoRP/RAMMB have completed the NOAA IT Security Awareness Course, well before the 30 September 2013 deadline.  (M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey, D. Molenar)