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Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

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Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations

Instructors:

Matthew Bunkers

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Topic:

Severe/Sat

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Developed:

2005

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Last Updated:

2020

Introduction


Objective: To increase operational awareness of forecasting supercell motion – leads to better nowcasts & pathcasts of severe convective weather, as well as better derived parameters.

Outline:

  1. Discuss primary mechanisms controlling supercell (and thunderstorm) motion
  2. Explain the B2K method for predicting supercell motion which includes:
    • strengths and limitations of B2K method
    • vertical wind shear perspective
  3. Provide examples of predicting supercell motion in operations
  4. Summarize and provide recommendations

Training Session Options


NOAA/NWS students – to begin the training, use the web-based video, YouTube video, or audio playback options below (if present for this session). Certificates of completion for NOAA/NWS employees can be obtained by accessing the session via the Commerce Learn Center

  1. Audio playback (recommended for low-bandwidth users) – This is an audio playback version in the form of a downloadable VISITview and can be taken at anytime.

    Create a directory to download the audio playback file (74 MB) from the following link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/training_sessions/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations/predicting_supercell_motion_in_operations_audio.exe

    After extracting the files into that directory click on either the visitplay.bat or visitauto.bat file to start the lesson. If both files are present, use visitauto.bat

  2. YouTube video:

References/Additional Links


  • Previous version of this training session (from 2005). Talking points.
  • Download the PowerPoint 2005 version of this training session
  • Bunkers, M. J., B. A. Klimowski, J. W. Zeitler, R. L. Thompson, and M. L. Weisman, 2000: Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 61-79.
  • Doswell, C. A., III, 1991: A review for forecasters on the application of hodographs to forecasting severe thunderstorms. Natl. Wea. Dig., 16, 2-16.
  • Edwards, R, R. L. Thompson, and J. A. Hart, 2002: Verification of supercell motion forecasting techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J57-J60.
  • Excel Hodograph Spreadsheet (Download here)
  • Ramsay, H. A., and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Exploring hodograph-based techniques to estimate the velocity of right-moving supercells. Wea. Forecasting, in review.
  • UCAR, 1999: Predicting Supercell Motion Using Hodograph Techniques. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/convectn/ic411/]
  • UCAR, 2003: Principles of Convection II: Using Hodographs. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training (COMET), Webcast. [Available on-line at: http://meted.ucar.edu/mesoprim/hodograpf/]
  • Zeitler, J. W., and M. J. Bunkers, 2005: Operational forecasting of supercell motion: Review and case studies using multiple datasets. Natl. Wea. Digest, in press. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/scm/ZB06.pdf
This course is Intermediate

There are no prerequisites

Contact

Dan Bikos

Dan.Bikos@colostate.edu

Page Contact

Bernie Connell

bernie.connell@colostate.edu

970-491-8689

Unless otherwise noted, all content on the CIRA RAMMB: VISIT, SHyMet and VLab webpages are released under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.