Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

TC Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC

Introduction

Learning Objectives:

• Describe the spectrum of NHC tropical cyclone intensity models
• Describe the general strengths and weaknesses of each intensity model
• Understand how intensity models are used in consensus forecasts
• Have an overview of future intensity forecast model improvements
• Limitations of tropical cyclone structure forecasting

Training Session Options

NOAA/NWS students – to begin the training, use the web-based video, YouTube video, or audio playback options below (if present for this session). Certificates of completion for NOAA/NWS employees can be obtained by accessing the session via the Commerce Learning Center.

1. YouTube video:

References/Additional Links

• Powerpoint file (no audio)
• Overview of NHC Models
• NHC Forecast Verification
• Operational Models Encyclopedia
• SHIPS and LGEM output text files available in real time
• Global Forecast System Main Page
• HWRF Documentation
• HMON Documentation
• UKMET Numerical Models
• ECMWF Documentation
• NAVGEM Home Page
• WPC’s Subjective Model Biases Page