Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

TC Intensity Model Guidance used by NHC

Introduction

Learning Objectives:

• Describe the spectrum of NHC tropical cyclone intensity models
• Describe the general strengths and weaknesses of each intensity model
• Understand how intensity models are used in consensus forecasts
• Have an overview of future intensity forecast model improvements
• Limitations of tropical cyclone structure forecasting

Training Session Options

NOAA/NWS students – to begin the training, use the web-based video, YouTube video, or audio playback options below (if present for this session). Certificates of completion for NOAA/NWS employees can be obtained by accessing the session via the Commerce Learning Center.

1. Live VISIT teletraining session led by an instructor (45 minutes). Check the VISIT Training Calendar to see the current schedule and sign up. Upon registering for a teletraining session, you will receive an email with a link (GoToMeeting or WebEx) to connect to the session.

2. YouTube video:

References/Additional Links

• Powerpoint file (no audio)
• Overview of NHC Models
• NHC Forecast Verification
• Operational Models Encyclopedia
• SHIPS and LGEM output text files available in real time
• Global Forecast System Main Page
• HWRF Documentation
• HMON Documentation
• UKMET Numerical Models
• ECMWF Documentation
• NAVGEM Home Page
• WPC’s Subjective Model Biases Page