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Markov-like wind radii CLIPER model up and running

A Markov-like model to forecast Tropical Cyclone wind radii along the JTWC forecast based on climatology and persistence (i.e., CLIPER) that was delivered to NRL, Monterey in December has been successfully integrated into the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system and is ready for transition to operations this next summer.  This model was developed using satellite-only estimates of tropical cyclone size, which combined with intensity and motion forecasts are statistically related to wind radii.  The model uses initial conditions derived from routine analysis of wind radii and successively makes forecasts using the forecasts of intensity and motion provided by the official forecasts that are blended with initial asymmetries in the wind radii.   This new model makes forecasts that are more consistent with initial storm sizes and thus rectifies the shortcomings of the wind radii CLIPER model (also developed at CIRA/RAMMB), while producing forecasts that are nearly identical when initial storm size is close to climatology.    A comparison forecast displayed on the ATCF is shown below. (POC: J. Knaff, Funding: U.S. Navy & STAR