Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Paper on ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclones published

M. DeMaria is a co-author with R. Torn from the University of Albany on the paper entitled “Validation of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change”, Atmosphere, Vol. 12, Article No. 373. Results show that regional hurricane models and global dynamical models and their ensembles do not currently forecast tropical cyclone rapid intensification as well as statistical models, but bias correction methods make the regional ensembles competitive. This paper lays the groundwork for several CIRA projects that are developing improved methods for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting by combining satellite data and model forecasts. (POC: M. DeMaria, CIRA, Mark.DeMaria@noaa.gov) Funding: Satellite Application Developer.