Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Under partial support from the Joint Hurricane Testbed, RAMMB developed a method for estimating the probability of 34, 50 and 64 kt wind associated with landfalling hurricanes, which was implemented at the National Hurricane Center beginning with the 2006 season. Several coastal National Weather Service Offices (WFOs) have developed a new application for automatically creating wording for their public and marine products using the wind probability output in combination with the NHC’s watches and warnings and their forecasted track and intensity. Figure 1 below shows an example of the WFO product displayed on their web page as Hurricane Ike made landfall along the Texas coast in September of 2008. Preliminary results from the 2008 season were presented at the NOAA Hurricane Conference in Miami by P. Santos (Miami, FL WFO), D. Sharp (Melbourne, FL WFO) and M. DeMaria. RAMMB continues to work with the WFOs to refine the probability thresholds used to create the automated text products.  (M. DeMaria, A. Schumacher and J. Knaff)

Figure 1.  Web products from a WFO forecast office generated automatically during the landfall of Hurricane Ike along the Texas coast in September of 2008. The wording for the 2nd through 6th time periods was selected automatically using input from NHC’s operational wind probability program developed by RAMMB.

The Southern Hemisphere Statistical Typhoon Intensity Forecast Scheme (SH STIPS) has been upgraded to include the effects of Oceanic Heat Content (OHC).  The SH STIPS model is run using track and track+dynamical fields from all available Global/Hurricane forecast models at NRLMRY to form a consensus intensity forecasts that is supplied to JTWC for consideration in their intensity forecasting process.  This effort mirrors similar operational capabilities in the N. Indian and western N. Pacific, which have improved TC intensity forecasts.  The use of OHC in the STIPS model was a product of the proposal entitled “Applications of satellite altimetry data to statistical and simplified dynamical tropical cyclone intensity forecast models”, which was a joint effort of CSU, NESDIS,  (G. Goni) AOML, (B. Sampson) NRLMRY, and  (K. Emanuel) MIT.  This product is being run in parallel with the non-OHC version of SH STIPS (Knaff and Sampson 2009) and will be evaluated following the Southern Hemisphere TC season.  (J. Knaff)

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is implementing an adaptation of the Knaff & Zehr (2007) wind-pressure relationship in operations at the three Australian Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC; Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane).  This version of the wind-pressure relationship is run within the Tropical Cyclone Module which is part of the Australian Integrated Forecast System V2.0 (Java-based system similar to AWIPS2) and makes use of routine diagnostic and forecast information (pressure of the outer closed isobar, radius of gales, and Dvorak-based/forecast intensity) to provide operational MSLP estimates and forecasts.  This implementation by J. Courtney (BOM) is important for standardizing the practices at the three TCWCs, each of which used to use different wind pressure relationships.  The expected result is improved real-time TC information for the public and the construction of more consistent historical TC information.  The documentation of the methodology has been submitted for publication in the Australian Meteorological Magazine and software to make the calculation is available upon request. (J. Knaff)

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product was promoted to operations on December 11th, 2008.  Promotion to operations, which was originally planned for mid-July, was delayed due to an OSDPD system freeze that was lifted on September 29th.  The TCFP product is now running operationally on a NESDIS production and backup machines. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Investigation of an automated hurricane warning scheme derived from Monte Carlo product wind probabilities has continued.  All cases for which hurricane warnings were issued along the U.S. mainland from 2004 to 2008 have been examined, and preliminary results suggest that the automated hurricane warning scheme, as currently configured, closely approximates the total length of coastline and duration of official NHC hurricane warnings during this time period.  Given this finding, future work will explore the potential reductions in length and duration of hurricane warnings, and hence the related socioeconomic benefits, that may be possible with future improvements to hurricane track and intensity forecasts. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

Figure:  Top – The total distance of U.S. mainland coastline under an official NHC hurricane warning (blue) and a simulated Monte Carlo Probability product-estimated warning (red) at any point during the 2004-2008 hurricane seasons. Bottom – Same values  as a scatter plot, with R2 = 0.95.  A similar plot for the total duration of hurricane warnings (not shown) has R2 = 0.87.

The collection and archival of the twelve-channel Meteosat Second Generation imagery over the tropical Atlantic during the hurricane season continued.  The dataset now contains 2006, 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons.  An example of the area collected is shown in Figure 1. (J. Knaff)

Figure 1.  Example of the area MSG imagery has been collected for the 2006, 2007, and 2008 hurricane seasons.

An AMSU-based tropical cyclone fix and all related fields (2-d temperature/wind analyses and azimuthal mean profiles) were provided to S Guimond (FSU).   This supplemented the data already provided for his PhD studies of Hurricane Dennis.  The time 2321 UTC 9 July 2005 was not processed in real-time, but the data was available in the CIRA archive of NOAA -15, 16, & 17 AMSU data (2001-present), which are maintained by S. Kidder.  (J. Knaff)

Software to calculate the modified Knaff and Zehr wind-pressure relationship was supplied to NRLMRY for implementation in the next version of the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. (J. Knaff)

A. Schumacher was invited to participate in the 2008 National Hurricane Center (NHC) Visiting Scientist Program from October 6-10, 2008.  During this time she shadowed NHC forecasters, gave a presentation on current hurricane-related research to operations activities at CIRA and spoke with Chris Landsea about verification of CIRA tropical cyclone guidance products. (A. Schumacher)

A. Schumacher visited the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) from October 6-10, 2008 and worked with J. Kaplan and J. Dunion on preliminary analysis for a proposed project with M. DeMaria to develop a new tropical cyclone genesis prediction scheme. (A. Schumacher)

Mark DeMaria and John Knaff were nominated to be members of several science teams for the newly formed HFIP. Mark will participate in the verification and model diagnostics teams and John will participate in the model post-processing/applications development team. (M. DeMaria and J. Knaff)

During the course of winter weather research using temperature and moisture soundings from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), it was found that the soundings often contain absolutely unstable layers (i.e. layers for which the potential temperature decreases with height).  Although many of the layers are not particularly deep, the occurrence is frequent enough that the COSMIC sounding team was notified.  The team is currently looking into the issue.  An example of a sounding with unstable layers from 5 November 2008 is given. (J. Dostalek)

COSMIC sounding from 5 November 2008 showing three unstable layers: 523-575 mb, 449-469 mb, and 379-395 mb.

Work is being done to create an objective Dvorak-like technique for estimating the central surface pressure of midlatitude cyclones over the eastern North Pacific Ocean.  GOES 10.7 μm imagery for 14 cases from November and December 2006 has been collected.  Initially, complex empirical orthogonal function analysis was going to be used to identify patterns in the imagery.  The patterns would then be related to the central surface pressure of the lows.  Instead of using complex EOFs, however, standard EOFs will be used initially.  Complex EOFs may be used in the future, but the simpler standard EOF will be used for the initial analysis of the cloud patterns of the lows seen in the infrared imagery. (J. Dostalek)

An initial analysis of a low-level moisture product has been completed using the data collected up through early September.  RUC 00-hr analyses from summer 2008 were compared with RAOBs at 26 locations across the central U.S., looking specifically at water vapor mixing ratios from the surface to 700 mb.  It was determined that the observed surface mixing ratio should be used as a predictor, along with the RUC analysis, for an analysis of the 925 mb mixing ratio.  The figures below show that for the Norman, Oklahoma, sounding location, using this prediction removes the bias and improves the absolute error over using the RUC analysis alone.  It was also determined that including GOES Sounder data does not provide any additional value to these analyses.  Next, I will look at the GOES Imager 10.7 minus 11.0 micron product.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  Comparisons between water vapor mixing ratio analyses at 925, 850, and 700 mb using the RUC analysis (dashed) and a statistical prediction which makes use of the RUC and the observed surface mixing ratio.  Mean absolute error is plotted on the left, and total error (or bias) is on the right).

Work toward a new statistical severe weather prediction algorithm which predicts severe weather has begun.  The idea is to use 2-3 years of GOES data, RUC analyses, and severe weather reports to develop the model.  So far, all data has been acquired, so the next step is writing the code to extract the relevant fields from the RUC.  (D. Lindsey)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for April, May and June of 2008. Processing has been slow due to illness and hourly issues.  With a new hire, we should start catching up next quarter. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for April, May and June 2008 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for April, May and June 2008. (C. Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive have been completed for May-July 2000.  In addition, regularly QC hours for May-Sep 2007 has been processed through cloud/no cloud in preparation for marine stratus burn-off composites.  Summer of 2008 will be done when regular processing has caught up. (C. Combs)

Work continues with Becca Mazur, Treena Hartley, Arlena Moses and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service office.  We converted sectored images in McIdas format into GeoTiff for test days selected by the Eureka office.  The Eureka office is currently entering the files into their GIS system to test their system for determining marine stratus layer depth.  This information will be used to catagorize each day for summers 1999-2007 for the marine stratus burn-off composites. (C. Combs)

A new student hourly was hired to replace an hourly working on quality control for climatology database. (C. Combs)

Simulated imagery for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) is being generated for the three infrared bands expected to be used for wildfire detection (3.9, 10.35, and 11.2 µm).  The attached figure is a display of an ABI band-7 (3.9 µm) image at ~2 km resolution, compared to a current-GOES Imager band-2 image at ~4 km resolution for the same date and time.  Both images were created from CSU RAMS mesoscale model output over California with ABBA-retrieved fire data provided by the AWG Fire Team at UW/CIMSS.  Images like these are being provided as Algorithm Working Group (AWG) proxy datasets for ABI product development.  (D. Hillger, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, R. DeMaria, R. Brummer)

Figure 1:  California fire simulations for 2007-10-23:  current-GOES vs. GOES-R ABI
Left:  Synthetic GOES-11 (GOES-west) Imager band-2 (3.9 μm);
Right:  Synthetic GOES-R (at GOES-west location) ABI band-7 (3.9 μm) imagery
Note that the higher resolution of ABI helps not only to pinpoint the fires better, but should lead to better analysis of fire size and temperature.

Work on the“Kyrill” case continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding locations. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. Last quarter, a draft of a paper to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal was prepared. The paper is entitled, “Maximizing information content of the future GOES-R observations in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based data assimilation method.” The authors are D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey and M. Sengupta. (L. Grasso)

Synthetic imagery for the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case has been completed. Similar to past simulations, synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from 3.9 to 13.3 µm was produced for this case. Unlike past simulation, synthetic imagery at 2.25 µm was also produced. Imagery at this wavelength will allow us to develop new tools for retrieving ice particle sizes at the tops of anvils of thunderstorms. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)
   
As a first step towards producing synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery at 0.47 µm, we approximated surface albedoes at this wavelength by reducing surface emmissivity values at 3.9 µm. This produced unfavorable results. Our second attempt at obtaining a map of the surface abledo relied on MODIS imagery. The idea was to compute satellite measured reflectance from the radiance field, solar zenith angle, and the solar constant at visible wavelengths. Results improved, yet issues remain. In addition, the observational operator was improved with the help of Frank Evans (from the University of Colorado). (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and M.Sengupta)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. In addition, Isidora Jankov is helping me compile the wrf_v3.0. Our first test was to use her WRF setup to run the executable on our local 64bit cluster. This test was successful. (L. Grasso and  I. Jankov)

D. Lindsey corresponded with Heather Glickman (CREST – City College) regarding a liquid water cloud particle size retrieval.  She is studying the effects of urban areas on clouds.  Work is ongoing to extend our ice particle effective radius retrieval to liquid water clouds, and as soon as it’s finished, this code will be shared with Heather.  (D. Lindsey)

GeoTIFFs for a test set of GOES West images have been transferred from CIRA to the Eureka, CA National Weather Service (NWS) office.  Cindy Combs and Don Hillger converted the sectorized 1200 UTC McIDAS images into GeoTIFF files.  The Eureka office, including Science and Operations Officer, Mel Nordquist, and interns Becca Mazur, Treena Hartley and Arlena Moses, were able to input the GeoTIFF files into their GIS system and from that imagery determine marine layer depth.  Testing continues with plans to determine marine layer depth for each summer day at 1200 UTC for the years 1999-2007 and to further use the marine layer depth information to stratify GOES data to form cloud climatologies. (D. Hillger, C. Combs)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

24 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 46 teletraining signups, 93 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

           
LMS totals from January 2005 through December 10 2008:

Registrations for VISIT Courses:  2035

Completions: 981

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New Training Proposal.

July 17, 2008 Bernie Connell and Jeff Braun had a conference call with Carvin Scott, Chief of the Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) in Alaska and Jeff Osiensky, Director of the ESSD in Alaska.  The point of this meeting was to start the development of a new training concerning Volcanic Ash (forecasting, operations, warnings, etc.).  

Ongoing development of new VISIT/SHyMet teletraining sessions:

• Development of a new training session on AWIPS OB9 satellite content, including High Density winds from the Japanese satellite and the CIRA blended TPW product (Dan Bikos)
• Development of SHyMet training topics on cloud climatology and hazard detection (Dan Bikos).
• Development of material concerned with “The Dryline” training session for the VISIT program (Jeff Braun).
• Continuing development of “Intro to Aviation Hazards/Weather” training session for the SHyMet program (Jeff Braun). 
• Continuing development of “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) (Jeff Braun)

Learning Management System (LMS):

• A new format for existing VISIT audio playback training sessions is being made available in the LMS.  The “Web-based video” format offers the convenience of opening in a web-browser, as opposed to downloading a VISITview file.  An example of this format may be viewed here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/video/coastal/player.html

Usage statistics by course for this format are (November 1 – December 18, 2008):
Anticipating Mesoscale Band Formation in Winter Storms                                       16
Interactive Cloud Height Algorithm in AWIPS                                                           4
Satellite Interpretation for various Coastal Effects                                                    62
Cyclogenesis: Analysis utilizing Geostationary Satellite Imagery                                29
Wildland Fire Detection using Satellite Imagery                                                         4
Lake-Effect Snow I                                                                                                24
Lake-Effect Snow II                                                                                               12
Lightning Meteorology I                                                                                          36
Lightning Meteorology II                                                                                         20
Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using GOES RSO Imagery                    9
Satellite Interpretation of Orographic Clouds / Effects                                                7
Precipitation Type Forecasting                                                                                 17
QuikSCAT winds                                                                                                    31
Use of GOES/RSO imagery for Severe Weather (RSO 3)                                         2
Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return with GOES Imagery                                                2
TROWAL Identification                                                                                          11
Utilizing GOES Imagery within AWIPS to Forecast Winter Storms                          36

Research:

• Severe Local Storms conference – May 22, 2008 tornado outbreak in Wyoming and Colorado.  D. Lindsey (NESDIS) is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in a study focused on a satellite perspective on the May 22, 2008 tornado that affected Windsor, CO.  Title of the abstract is “An Analysis of the 22 May 2008 Windsor, Colorado, Tornado from a Satellite Perspective”.
• Some of the social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case are also being explored.  J. Braun is helping with this cause and just finished organizing and attending a meeting with the local/regional Emergency Managers as well as the executive director of LETA (Larimer Emergency Telephone Authority) for some input concerning short fuse warnings and the use of the Emergency Notification System (ENS). (December 10, 2008)
• J. Dostalek is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in ongoing research regarding analysis of water vapor imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  To be submitted later to the NWA as this was where the original paper and concept was introduced some 30 years ago.
• D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  The topic is based on a conference presentation and seminar.

Invited-speaker seminar:

• D. Bikos was an invited speaker for a seminar at the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science.  The title of the presentation is “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008.”  A publication is planned based on this presentation.

Course completed for Behavioral Research with Human Subjects

• J. Braun completed the course “Behavioral Research with Human Subjects” on 11/21/2008 for the Institution of Colorado State University so that he may be able to participate in live interviews.  This will be in conjunction with the on ongoing research being conducted on the Windsor Tornado, May 22, 2008.

Outreach for fall/winter 2008:

• J. Braun was asked to “talk about the weather” on two separate occasions to students of Rocky Mountain High School who attend the Introduction to Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences (ICPE) classes.   (November 13, 2008 and December 9, 2008)

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through December 16, 2008:
• 5373 total hits.
• Currently averaging about 30 hits per day.

VISIT and SHyMet Training:

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – December 11, 2008.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

(D. Bikos, J. Braun)

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through September 26, 2008: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

170 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered at CIRA (4 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).
 
22 total Non-NOAA participants have registered at CIRA (0 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through December 16, 2008 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2306

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes for 1st Quarter 2009 – 48

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 1st Quarter 2009 –
2 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class (SHyMet Course) Metrics – Numbers Registered:

1. Orientation:  317 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 8 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  279 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 4 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  296 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 3 this quarter.
4. POES…:  262 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 4 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  205 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 4 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  204 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 4 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  212 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 7 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  236 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 8 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  295 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 6 this quarter.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

CIRA participated in the WMO sponsored Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RA III and RA IV that was held for Spanish speaking countries in Argentina, 22 September – 3 October, 2008.  The Argentina National Space Agency CONEA hosted the event at the Gulich Institute in the Space Center facility CETT in Cordoba Province.  The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) was the primary sponsor; the local sponsors in Argentina were: el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), la Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE), and la Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires (UBA).  Other contributors/lecturers were from NOAA, COMET, and CIRA in the United States, Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudios Climáticos (CPTEC) / Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) in Brazil, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), and la Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR).  (B. Connell)

Thirteen participants from various countries in Regions III and IV were sponsored by WMO: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, and Uruguay.  There were 12 other participants from SMN, UBA, and the Instituto Nacional de Agua (INA) in Argentina that were sponsored locally.  CIRA prepared and delivered lectures focused on the status of GOES/POES, Introduction to Multispectral and Hyperspectral satellite data, VISITview training, and a demo on McIDAS software.  In addition, CIRA helped coordinate two sessions that linked up with the monthly weather briefings of the focus group of the Americas during the first week and two sessions that linked up with the GEOSS in the Americas Symposium being held in Panamá during the second week.  Highlights of the first week included the opening presentation by the head of CONAE, Conrado Varotto, and a tour of the Space Center CETT.  The course took advantage of blended training by including remote presentations and sessions mentioned above as well as remote presentations from EUMETSAT, CPTEC, and UCR.  Many contacts were made with participants, other lecturers, other personal at the Gulich Institute and CONAE.  We look forward to continued interactions and cooperation in the future.  (B. Connell)

WMO Satellite Training in spring (Fall 2008) at the Mario Gulich Institute in Argentina. 

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for October, November, and December 2008) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay,  Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 18 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  The discussions focused on Hurricane Omar activity in the Caribbean, increased convective activity in South America and associated regions that received heavy rainfall, in particular Brazil and Peru).  A new milestone for the focus group was made when participants from the Argentina Training gave a 15 minute presentation at the beginning of the Spanish session during both October and November.  Ing. Met. Nelson Quispe Gutiérrez of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI) of Peru presented highlights from the training and a brief overview of SENAMHI in October. 

Lorena Guerrero of the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of Argentina presented a brief overview of the activities and products of SMN, the national Space Agency CONAE, and the University of Buenos Aires in November.  (B. Connell)

The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica.  During the dry season months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the RAMMB server listed above.  (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products

GOES-12 imageryfor June through August 2008 were processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for September through November 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1.  (B. Connell)

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for September, October, and November 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September through November 1999-2008 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2. (B. Connell)

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September, October, and November 1999-2008 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean have been consolidated and updated.  The RAMSDIS Online imagery can now be viewed at one location (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).  This step was a welcome upgrade to the International Weather Briefings page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visitview/focus/viewgroup.html), allowing for viewing of higher resolution imagery as well as increased speed for the download of imagery. 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell)

Published:

• Refereed

Lindsey, D. T., and M. Fromm, 2008: Evidence of the cloud lifetime effect from wildfire-induced thunderstorms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22809, doi:10.1029/2008GL035680.

Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria and T.H. Vonder Haar, 2008: Tropical cyclone inner core kinetic energy evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4882-4898.

• Nonrefereed

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, D.W. Hillger, and R.L. Brummer, 2008: GOES-R Synthetic Imagery and Fire Detection, CIRA Newsletter, 30, Fall 2008, 1-3.

Jankov I., Sengupta M., Grasso L.D., Coleman D., Zupanski D., M.Zupanski, Lindsey D.T, and R.L. Brummer 2008: An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast.  CIRA Newsletter, 30, Fall 2008, 18-23.

Lindsey, D.T., S.D. Miller, J. Braun, and D. Bikos, 2008: An analysis of the 22 May 2008 Windsor, Colorado, tornado.  24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 27-31 October, Savannah, GA.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

DeMaria, M., 2008:  A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2008: The GOES-13 Science Test. A Synopsis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Knaff, J.A.,  2009.   Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones.   Int. J. Climatology., published early on line, 11pp.  DOI: 10.1002/joc.1746  [ also available on-line at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/4735/home ]

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008a: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part I:  Control Forecasts Based on Climatology and Persistence. Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008b: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II:   Statistical – Dynamical Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008c: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part III:   Statistical – Consensus Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., M. Sengupta, L. Grasso, D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, R. DeMaria, and M. DeMaria: 2009: Synthetic satellite datasets for GOES-R ABI Bands.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., M. Davison, A. Mostek, V. Castro, and T. Whittaker, 2009:  International satellite training activities. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., and L.G. Guirola, 2009:  Regional satellite climatologies for Central America from GOES. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., 2009:  Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS and GOES-R. 5th AMS Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – NPOESS and GOES-R, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., and R. DeMaria, 2009:  Applications of lightning observations to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., S. Kidder, C. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, C. Lauer, and C. Sisko, 2009:  An Improved Wind Probabability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A.B. Schumacher, J. Kaplan, D. Brown, G. Gallina, J. Kossin, 2009:  Improved GOES Utilization for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, R.L. Brummer, R. DeMaria, and D.W. Hillger, 2009: Synthetic GOES-R imagery of fires at 3.9 µm. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Guch, I., S.Q. Kidder, P. Menzel, R. Ferraro, S. Ackerman, D. Khanbilvardi, T. Strub, B. Vant Hull, R. Hudson, and M. DeMaria, 2009: Collaborative training efforts at the NESDIS Cooperative Institutes. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Gurka, J., A. Mostek, T.J. Schmit, S.D Miller, A. Bachmeier, M. DeMaria, 2009:  GOES-R Proving Ground Program.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and R.L. Brummer, 2009: GOES-R ABI product development.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., and G. Toth, 2008: Un-manned satellites on postage stamps 28: The A-1 satellite, Astrophile, 53(1), (January/February), 37-39.

Knaff, J.A., 2009:  Propagating patterns in 6.7 µm imagery in re-intensifying tropical-to-extratropical cyclone transitions.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Knaff, J.A., D.W. Hillger, M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2009:  Developing GOES-R Tropical Cyclone Products vis Proxies. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Miller, S.D., M. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, E. Szokes, R.L. Brummer, A. Kuciauskas, F. Turk, H. Gosden, 2009:  Contributions from CIRA to the GOES-R Satellite Proving Ground. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, T.J. Schmit, 2009:  NOAA Satellite Training.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Santos, P., D. Sharp, M. DeMaria, S. Kiser, 2009:  The Determination of Optimal Thresholds of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support Expressions of Uncertainty in Text Forecasts. AMS Symposium on Urban High Impact Weather, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, D. Brown, and E. Rappaport, 2009:  Applications of the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product to Quantifying Potential Impacts of Hurricane Forecast Improvements. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, R.L. Brummer, and D.W. Hillger, 2009:  Improving fire detection: Current GOES to GOES-R.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Submitted:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2008:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2008:  Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Pressure-Wind Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres.  Australian Meteorological Magazine.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2009:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Zupanski D., 2008: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski M., 2008: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Nonrefereed    

Presentations:

D. Bikos was an invited speaker for a seminar at the University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science.  The title of the presentation is “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008.”  A publication is planned based on this presentation.

J. Braun was asked to “talk about the weather” on two separate occasions to students of Rocky Mountain High School who attend the Introduction to Chemistry, Physics, and Earth Sciences (ICPE) classes – November 13 and December 9, 2008.

B. Connell traveled to Cordoba, Argentina to present lectures at the WMO Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RAIII and IV September 22 – October 3, 2008.  The lectures and laboratories focused on GOES/POES status, an Introduction to Multispectral and Hyperspectral satellite data, VISITview, and a demo on McIDAS. (B. Connell)

B. Connell traveled to Miami, Florida to present a talk at NOAA’s 2008 Satellite Direct Readout Conference (December 8-11).  She gave a presentation on “Satellite Training Activities at CIRA.”  The conference was an excellent venue to find out more information on direct readout capabilities and to meet with international partners.  (B. Connell)

B. Connell gave a presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver on November 10.  Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery.  (B. Connell)

M. DeMaria gave a guest lecture entitled “Applications of Satellite Data to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting” in Tom Vonder Haar’s AT737 Satellite Meteorology class in the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science. Applications to tropical cyclone track, intensity and wind structure forecasting were summarized, include current and planned satellite missions. A class exercise on the Dvorak tropical cyclone classification method was also given.

D. Lindsey gave a presentation entitle “Improving above-surface water vapor analyses using satellite and RUC data” at the 24th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 27-31 October, Savannah, GA.

A. Schumacher gave a presentation entitled “Development of Probabilistic Forecast Guidance at CIRA” at a Workshop on AWIPS Tools for Probabilistic Forecasting.  22-24 October 2008, ESRL/Global Systems Divisions, Boulder, CO.

A. Schumacher presented “An Overview of Research to Operations Activities at CIRA for 2008/2009” at the National Hurricane Center Invited Seminar. 10 October 2008, Miami, FL.

D. Birkenheuer (NOAA/ESRL) visited RAMMB on November 19.

Bob Rabin (NSSL/CIMSS) visited in November to discuss some severe weather projects. (D. Lindsey)

Dr. David Nolan, an Associate Professor of Marine and Atmospheric Science at the University of Miami, visited CIRA on 16 Oct and gave a seminar on a tropical cyclone genesis modeling study. Several RAMMB members met with him afterwards to discuss ideas for improving the NESDIS tropical cyclone formation product based on his theoretical and modeling work. His result on the importance of the direction of the environmental wind shear vector relative to the disturbance propagation vector will be investigated further, as well as the possible influence of low-level moisture.

D. Lindsey (co-chair) participated remotely in an ICAPOP meeting on 13 November. The focus of the meeting was on GOES-13 problems during eclipse periods. (D. Lindsey)