Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

 The Monte Carlo Wind Model (MCWM) was upgraded to include track forecast uncertainty in the west and east Pacific.  The Atlantic version already includes this option. (M. DeMaria)

Work has begun on expanding the Monte Carlo Wind Model objective hurricane warning scheme to the N.W. Pacific.  The Atlantic scheme was developed from hurricane warning information and MCWM probabilities for 2004-2008 and was introduced at the 2009 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference.  Historical tropical cyclone condition of readiness (TC-COR) information is currently being collected to develop a similar scheme for the N.W. Pacific basin.  Development is expected to begin in January.  (A. Schumacher)

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its effect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which will use the GFS model fields as input.  The omega equation is solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform.  Work has begun to input the vertical velocities into the product.  In particular, omega fields from 2007-2008, averaged over 700-200 mb were placed into the guidance product code.  After processing, it was determined that more years are needed to assess the impact of the large scale vertical motion.  More years are being processed and the larger dataset will be input into the guidance code next quarter. (J. Dostalek)

Work on assessing the quality of temperature and moisture retrievals based on satellite data has continued.  After the NPROVS (NOAA Product Validation System) program was installed, software development began to perform feature-based diagnostics from the sounding match-ups. NPROVS provides basic overlay plots (Figure 1) and the ability to calculate statistics such as bias, mean error, etc.  Feature-based diagnostics, however, provide a better idea of the utility of satellite soundings for tropical analysis and forecasting. These features include the following: (1) the trade-wind inversion height when present; (2) the tropopause height; (3) the maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones using the theory developed by Bister and Emanuel (1998), (4) and a tropical convective instability parameter based on a simple Lagrangian parcel model (DeMaria 2009). The parcel model includes the effects of entrainment and the weight of liquid water, which are important factors in the tropics. The output of the model is a profile of vertical velocity, which can be integrated to provide a vertical instability parameter for use in tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. Figure 2 shows an example of the vertical velocity profiles from the three soundings near Antigua shown in Figure 1. Although the average temperature and dewpoint temperature errors of the two satellite soundings (relative to the radiosonde sounding shown in Figure. 1) are fairly small (about ½ oC), the behaviors in the parcel model are very different. Similar to its use in statistical intensity prediction models, the parcel is initialized at the surface with a 10 m/s updraft and a temperature equal to the observed sea surface temperature. The buoyancy is determined by the difference between the parcel virtual temperature and that of the environment (from the sounding).  For the radiosonde sounding, the parcel becomes buoyant at about 1 km, reaches a maximum vertical velocity of about 25 m/s at 8.5 km, and eventually rises to a little above 13 km. For the satellite soundings, the dry bias in the MIRS sounding and the enhanced low-level stability in the IASI sounding prevent the parcel from reaching its level of free convection, and neither parcel rises above 2 km. These dramatic differences illustrate the need for very accurate temperature and moisture profiles when trying to assess convective instability in the tropics.  A proposal update to continue this project into its third year was also completed. (J. Dostalek, R. DeMaria, M. DeMaria)

Figure 1.  Comparison among the 1200 UTC radiosonde (red) from the island of Antigua  and the collocated MIRS (NOAA-18, dark pink) and IASI (Met-Op, yellow) retrievals for 5 September 2008.  Temperature retrievals are solid, dewpoint temperature retrievals are dashed. The plots are from the NPROVS system.

Figure 2. Vertical velocity profiles of a parcel lifted from the surface at an initial upwards velocity of 10 m/s in an environment with temperature and moisture profiles estimated from radiosondes (red), and IASI (yellow) and MIRS (purple) satellite retrievals. The soundings are near the Caribbean island of Antigua at about 12 UTC on September 5, 2008. Hurricane Ike was to the north of Antigua at this time. The parcel is initialized with the observed sea surface temperature and relative humidity from the environmental sounding. The velocity profile is determined from a Lagrangian parcel model, which includes the effects of entrainment, condensate weight and the ice phase. 

Bister, M., and K.A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 50, 233-240.

DeMaria, M., 2009: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 68-82.

Tropical cyclone surface wind analyses generated on the NSOF development computer are now being posted to ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/MTCSWA. Information to drive the web pages associated with the product are also being generated and provided to W. Li for his web page development.    Monitoring pages for the various components necessary for this analysis system as well as the output from the system has also been developed.  Fix files that can be picked up by any operational agencies are available at this same site.  These Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF)-format fixes have also been tested to ensure they are formatted and named correctly.  This project is sponsored by GOES-PSDI and this product will be transitioned to operations at NSOF in the next six months.   (J. Knaff)

The CIRA/RAMMB tropical cyclone IR image archive has been updated to include improved and more complete coverage of storms that occurred in the 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  New storms include Allison, Barry, Gabrielle, TD16, Noel, Pablo Sebastien, and Tanya.  Imagery coverage has also been improved for Humberto, Iris, Jerry, Karen, Luis, Marilyn, Opal and Roxanne.  Next quarter new imagery will be added to the archive to cover storms that occurred in the East Pacific in 1995 and 1996.  The ultimate goal is to have a 1995-pressent IR image archive in the Atantic and East Pacific and 2004- present in the rest of the world. (J. Knaff)

Simulated (from MSG) ABI channel 13 (10.35 µm) data along with documentation were supplied to J. Daniels (AWG) and C. Olander (CIMSS) for seven Atlantic Hurricanes that occurred 2006-2008.   More details are provided in the Table below. 

Table Caption:  Details concerning Task 1 including the tropical cyclone cases, the number of simulated ABI (SABI) images and matching MSG images along with the starting and ending times of the database.  Note MSG data consists of 3km, 2-byte (channel 9, 10.8 µm) obtained from the NESDIS server and SABI images are matching 3km, 2-byte images representing ABI channel 13 centered on 10.35 µm. (Knaff)

John Knaff visited the National Hurricane Center (IHC) and shadowed Hurricane specialists during the 03UTC advisory/forecast development times as part of the HFIP Visiting Scientist (VS) Program.  The goals of the VS program were to 1)  to facilitate better understanding by researchers/outside forecasters of the NHC hurricane forecasting process including the tools and techniques utilized by the Hurricane Specialists;   2)  to open additional dialog between NHC and the research/outside forecast community that could lead to improvements in our analysis and prediction methodologies.  He also gave a seminar entitled “Improving Intensity Estimates Using Operational Information” and began coordinating some of the 2010 Joint Hurricane Testbed and NHC GOES-R Proving Ground Activities. 

John Knaff provided software that produces tropical cyclone wind analyses on a cylindrical grid and formatted 1995-2006 tropical cyclone aircraft reconnaissance data to CIMSS. The software creates wind analyses given aircraft reconnaissance data and tropical cyclone position information.  This will support CIMSS Joint Hurricane Testbed efforts to detail tropical cyclone structure changes that occur before, during and after eyewall replacement cycles.

Similar to the Dvorak technique for estimating the strength of tropical cyclones, an objective method is being sought to estimate the central pressure of midlatitude cyclones over the northeast Pacific using infrared imagery.  In this quarter, 6.7 μm imagery was included in the study.  EOF analysis of 10.7 μm imagery, 6.7 μm imagery, and combined 10.7/6.7 μm data was performed.  The analysis using the 6.7 μm imagery alone performed best, likely because small, low-level clouds are detected in the 10.7 μm imagery, and contribute to “noise” in the EOF analysis.  Work is continuing on computing a regression equation to predict the central surface pressure using the first six principal component time series of the water vapor imagery, storm latitude, storm longitude, and storm age as independent variables.  At this point, 40-50% of the variance in the central pressure of the storm is explained by the nine independent variables.  (J. Dostalek)

Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit wind retrievals will be used to document tropospheric effects of sea surface temperature anomalies in the gulfstream.  The wind fields are computed from the temperature retrievals by integrating the hydrostatic equation from an upper-boundary (from the GFS model) down to the surface.  This process gives geopotential height as a function of pressure.  The wind field is derived from the height field using the linear balance equation.  The correlation between sea-surface temperature anomalies along the Gulf Stream and the linear balance vorticity at 850 mb can be seen in Figure 1, where higher relative vorticity is associated with higher sea-surface temperatures.  This project is a joint effort with Dr. Dudley Chelton at the Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic Satellite Studies at Oregon State University.

Figure 1.  Mean sea-surface temperature (color °C) and mean relative vorticity (x10-5 s-1, dashed negative) at 850 mb for January 2007. 

An attempt is being made to estimate the winds at the tropopause by using an equation derived by Vaughn and Price (1991) relating the total ozone in the lower stratosphere to the vorticity at the tropopause.  The ozone retrievals will come from both geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites.  Once the vorticity is derived, it will be used to compute the winds at the tropopause.  Although these winds are a non-divergent estimate to the total wind, they will likely be available every hour. (J. Dostalek)

Vaughn, G. and J. D. Price, 1991: On the relation between total ozone and meteorology.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 117, 1281-1298.

H. Gosden and D. Molenar created installation instructions to install CIRA developed products onto AWIPS system.  The list of CIRA developed products are: Geo Color, Low Cloud/Fog, 1 km Low Cloud/Fog.  David Tomalak of Boulder WFO was very instrumental in making these instructions more applicable in the WFO environment. (H. Gosden, D. Molenar)

H. Gosden and D. Molenar successfully installed CIRA’s Low Cloud/Fog product at Boulder WFO using the new installation documents that were developed. (H. Gosden, D. Molenar)

H. Gosden sent the new CIRA Proving Ground product installation instructions for Low Cloud/Fog product to Cheyenne WFO office. (H. Gosden)

H. Gosden sent the new CIRA Proving Ground product installation product for Geo Color and Low Cloud/Fog product to Omaha WFO office. (H. Gosden)

H. Gosden added new color table information on local AWIPS system for the two new CIRA Proving Ground products developed by Steve Miller.  The two products are currently named Binary Cloud/Snow and High/Low Cloud/Snow products. (H. Gosden)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for August and September of 2009. October 2009 has been delayed due to illness. (C. Combs)

Processing of GOES wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for August and September of 2009 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for August and September of 2009. (C. Combs)

The cloud climatology based on marine stratus depth work with Treena Hartley, Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service(NWS) office, and Becca Mazur with Cheyenne, WY NWS office is continuing. We had a telecon on Dec 11, 2009 to discuss progress and project needs. (C. Combs)

Eureka data has been processed for May-September 2008 and have started on 2009. GeoTiffs for 12 UTC have been sent to the Eureka office for classification.  Efforts are continuing to place the cloud climatologies into the GFE systems of both Cheyenne and Eureka.  (C. Combs)

Monthly cloud products using MSG-1 and -2 data for Jan-Mar 2006, Dec 2007, and Jan-Mar 2008 have been completed.   Currently, I am working on tuning the algorithm’s snow/high cloud detection using Feb 2007 as a test case. (C. Combs)

Work on the“Kyrill” case continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding locations. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. A paper entitled “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” has been through the peer-review process with the International Journal of Remote Sensing. This quarter we received notice that the paper is in press with IJRS (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria)

Synthetic imagery for the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case was redone due to an error in the code for 2.25 µm. This data will serve as proxy data under the AWG project for convective initiation purposes. Last quarter a manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (L. Grasso, Dan Lindsey).
Last quarter the manuscript was accepted with minor revisions and re-submitted to IRJS. This quarter, a second round of minor revisions was address and re-submitted to IJRS.

The synthetic imagery from 27 June 2005 was provided to Wayne MacKenzie (Univ. of Alabama-Huntsville) as part of the Aviation Algorithm Working Group’s Convective Initiation project.  Simulated radar reflectivity and model surface temperatures were also provided.  (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

We have developed a fruitful collaboration with Wayne MacKenzie at the University of Alabama-Huntsville as a result of the Aviation AWG work. Together we are working on a paper that will focus on GOES-R detection of convective initiation through the use of channel differences (see the figure below).  The brightness temperature difference between 10.35 and 12.3 µm is proportional to moisture depth, so one might use this difference to anticipate where convective clouds may form.  Additionally, we have acquired a second year of AWG funds to provide additional synthetic GOES-R data to Wayne and his group.  (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

Figure 2.  Simulated 10.35-12.3 µm image from the 27 June 2005 case over eastern Wyoming, along with surface wind vectors.  Note that positive differences correspond to regions of surface convergence.  One may use the brightness temperature difference field to predict where convective clouds are likely to form.  This idea is potentially a nice application of GOES-R ABI data. 

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript will be submitted for peer-review. (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

Collaboration continues with Martin Setvak of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. Last quarter, a paper was written discussing “cold ring” thunderstorms.  RAMS was run with different temperature structures at the tropopause to offer a possible explanation of satellite observed cold ring thunderstorms. This quarter, the manuscript was submitted and subsequently accepted with revisions. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

GOES-12 imagery was created using forward-radiative transfer calculations of model output generated by Dr. Yi Jin at the Naval Research Laboratory.  These simulations were to demonstrate the ability to create synthetic satellite images from numerical models as part of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).  (D. Hillger, M. DeMaria, L. Grasso)

With help from B. McNoldy, an experimental high wind prediction model for Ft. Collins has been created.  At the present time, there are no satellite-based predictors, but we are watching the model closely this winter to determine how satellite data may be incorporated.  (D. Lindsey, B. McNoldy)

L. Grasso and D. Hillger presented details of their GOES-R ABI RGB (true-color) simulation efforts via conference call to Crystal Schaff at Boston University. Ms. Schaff provided the MODIS 16-day albedos used as the land surface for the ABI simulations.  It is hoped that these contacts will lead to further collaboration.  (L. Grasso, D. Hillger)

Work continues on the addition of smoke to simulated ABI reflectances in the visible (RGB) bands.  The attached image includes preliminary Red, Blue, and synthetic-Green band images and the combined RGB (true-color) image with an added smoke plume.  For this case, the smoke plume was extracted from a MODIS image and then input into the model simulations with characteristics that make the smoke plume variable in either optical depth or single-scattering albedo or both.  Those two parameters can be changed as we learn to simulate smoke.  Additional simulations will be done, since these results are only preliminary. (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Preliminary Red, Blue, and Synthetic-Green images over Southern California and the resulting RGB (true-color) image of that smoke plume.  The coastline appears in the Synthetic-Green and RGB images, but not in the Red or Blue images, which was not an expected result.  These images are neither Rayleigh-corrected nor enhanced, but are the raw ABI data.

Recent work has focused on applying enhancements to brighten true-color (RGB) imagery.  Figure 2 shows an un-enhanced simulated ABI image and the same image with two successive enhancements applied.  The goal is to provide a NASA-like RGB image by applying scientific principles to the image, not just enhancing the image for maximum color.  Customer desire/appeal for RGB imagery can be gained through enhancements, which is realized by creating true-color imagery that emphasizes differences in the observed terrain and vegetation.  To compare with enhancements of simulated ABI RGB images, Figure 3 shows a MODIS RGB image with the same Rayleigh and log enhancements applied.  On top in the figure is the un-enhanced RGB image, and below it are two successive enhancements applied to the same image.  Statistical comparisons of the simulated ABI and MODIS reflectances, aside from the cloudy pixels, yield similar results.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 2: A simulated ABI RGB (true-color) image over the central U.S. with various enhancements applied: 1) an un-enhanced image; 2) the same image with a Rayleigh-correction applied to the component (Red, Green, and Blue) bands; and 3) the same image with an additional log-enhancement applied on top of the Rayleigh correction.

Figure 3: A MODIS RGB (true-color) image over the central U.S. with various enhancements applied: 1) an un-enhanced image; 2) the same image with a Rayleigh-correction applied to the component (Red, Green, and Blue) bands; and 3) the same image with an additional log-enhancement applied on top of the Rayleigh correction.

D. Hillger provided a large number of suggestions in response to a call from NASA for feedback /corrections to the GOES-N Series Data Book for the next/GOES-P edition. The review included many technical edits for proper use of SI units and symbols throughout the document. 

D. Hillger provided an extensive review of a draft COMET module on RGB (Red, Green, Blue) image processing.  The RGB module was produced by T. Lee and M. Weingroff. 

Code was provided to Heather Glickman-Eliezer (CREST – City College) which allows for GOES retrievals of cloud liquid water particle size.  As part of her PhD work, she is studying the effect of urbanization on clouds.  The figure below shows an example of the retrieval off the eastern coast of the U.S.   (D. Lindsey)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

14 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 25 teletraining signups, 70 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  59
Completions:  29
LMS totals from January 2005 through December 10 2009:
Registrations:  2494
Completions: 1283

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New teletraining sessions that debuted this quarter:

• “Basic Satellite Imagery Interpretation in the Tropics” by Dan Bikos (CIRA).  The audio playback version will be produced next quarter and placed into the LMS. 

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Water vapor imagery / jet streak analysis for severe thunderstorm forecasting (Dan Bikos).  Expected delivery – spring 2010.
• Collaboration with Geoffrey Stano (ENSCO) on a training session for total lightning.  Expected delivery – winter 2009.
• The use of GOES satellite imagery with all other available datasets to analyze and forecast severe weather associated with the Dryline (Jeff Braun).
• Update existing training modules on NHC track and intensity models to include Pacific region and look into adding content /references from Arlene Lang’s Tropical textbook (COMET).
• GIMPAP sponsored winter weather research (Henry’s Rule), see note below under research.  A training module based on this research will be delivered in 2010.

Research:

• D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  The manuscript has been submitted to the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.
• J. Braun is collaborating Russ Schumacher (NCAR), Dan Lindsey, Andrea Schumacher, Steve Miller and Julie Demuth (NCAR) to publish a paper (Weather and Forecasting) the details some of the meteorological, operational and social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case (Windsor Colorado). The title of the paper is “Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Weather Information During the 22 May, 2008 Weld County Tornado.” 
• J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in ongoing research regarding analysis of satellite imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.

Collaboration:

D. Bikos collaborated with the Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB) in Norman, OK to assist in the development of an AWOC course on QLCS tornadoes that will be delivered to NWS forecast offices.

D. Bikos, J. Braun, J. Knaff and L. Grasso contributed to the development of a COMET module titled “Toward an Advanced Sounder on GOES?”.  Patrick Dills (COMET) conducted phone interviews with Bikos, Braun and Knaff which were used as content in the module.  L. Grasso produced a number of the graphics shown in the presentation.

Both J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service.  

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through December 16, 2009:
• 12, 763 total hits.
• Currently averaging about 22 hits per day.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – December 10, 2009.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

Development of classes for the new SHyMet For Forecasters training course:

• Continuing development of the“Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) (Jeff Braun).  It has now been split into 2 sessions (Part 1 and Part 2).
• Developing web pages and student guide for the upcoming SHyMet for Forecasters course (D. Bikos and J. Braun).
• Continuing development of Satellite cloud climatology training session (Bernie Connell and Dan Bikos).
• Completion of “GOES-R 101” (Bernie Connell)

Begin Development of new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:

• Course topics and some details were addressed at the VISIT/SHyMet Semi-Annual Meeting September 16 – 17, 2009. The following topics are being assessed for relevance of current satellite focused training materials:
  • Nowcasting and short-term precipitation forecasting
  • QPE and the Hydro-Estimator
  • Anticipating onset of heavy precipitation / heavy rain signatures
  • Feature identification and situational awareness
  • Soil moisture / wetness
  • Flooding applications
  • Ice and snow cover applications
  • Land use / watershed characteristics
  • Vegetation indices

CIRA will investigate topics 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9

SHyMet Intern Metrics April 2006 through December 16, 2009: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

207 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (3 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Development Plan composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).  1 Participants completed the course this quarter.

25 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (2 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through
Dec. 16, 2009 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2877

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes for 1st Quarter 2010 – 66

Total Completed SHyMet Classes for 1st Quarter 2010 – 50 (50/66 = 75%)

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 1st Quarter 2010 –
1 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class SHyMet Course Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

• Orientation:  388 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 6 this quarter.
• GOES Intro…:  344 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 9 this quarter.
• GOES Channel Selection…:  368 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 11 this quarter.
• POES…:  316 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 5 this quarter.
• GOES Sounder…:  264 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 5 this quarter.
• High Density Winds…:  257 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 5 this quarter.
• Cyclogenesis:  269 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 9 this quarter.
• Severe Weather:  323 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 12 this quarter.
• Tropical Cyclones:  346 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 4 this quarter.

Meetings and Calls

November 6, 2009 –  Conference call (J. Braun) with the Environmental and Scientific Services Division (ESSD) NWS Volcanic Ash Program (Jeff Osiensky) and the Alaska Aviation Unit (Kristine Nelson and Tony Hall) concerning the volcanic ash project. 

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SRSST) monthly teleconference meetings as a subject matter expert.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there.

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for October, November, and December 2009) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, the NWS International Desk at NCEP, and CICS, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Paraguay, Trinidad, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 31 computer connections during the August briefing and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Tony Mostek, NWS led one of the sessions in October.  Discussions continued to focus on extreme drought in northern Argentina, feature identification in the imagery:  identifying moist/dry and gusty regions in the imagery, fuel depot fires in Puerto Rico on October 23rd, and the position of an upper level TUTT in the western Caribbean and its association with subsidence and hence dryness in El Salvador (in October).  In November, discussions once again focused on El Salvador for a flooding event that occurred Nov 7-8.  Some areas in El Salvador received 355 mm (14 inches) of rain in 4 hours.

Barbados has also been conducting bi-monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region and to stimulate discussion and collaboration during the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.

Sharing of Imagery and Products
GOES-12 imageryfor September through November 2009 were processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for September through November 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1 

Figure 1.Monthly cloud frequency composites for September, October, and November 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm iimagery for September through November 1999-2009 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for September, October, and November 1999-2009 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/   (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Real-time ingest and archive of GOES-14 data during the GOES-14 Science Test is ongoing.  In addition to in-house publication of select data on RAMSDIS online, one minute data has been made available to NOAA/UMD for lightning data overlays.  The data is also going to the new CIRA online NAS archive. (D. Molenar)

On 19 October, D. Hillger and T. Schmit participated in a teleconference with NOAA and NASA officials at NSOF, to set the stage for the GOES-14 Science Test.  The NOAA Science Test will start 30 November and run for 5 weeks through 4 January, after the end of the engineering Post Launch Tests.  [GOES-14 was launched in June and has been sending down images continuously since the Imager and Sounder were turned on.  The data has already been used to discover and solve several issues with the new GVAR format employed by GOES-14.]  During the Science Test, GOES-14 will have been moved to 105°W in preparation for storage afterwards.  At the teleconference, Hillger presented the eight proposed Science Test schedules, which are similar to those used during the GOES-13 Science Test in December 2006.  The schedules are being prepared for upload as needed based on daily decisions during the Science Test.  Besides schedules that emulate normal operations (mainly for product generation), there are both 1 minute and 30 second interval rapid-scan imagery schedules that will be called, depending on the presence of interesting weather, in particular over three different lightning mapping arrays.  There is also a desire to capture images of the moon for calibration purposes, and special line-shifted imagery that will emulate higher-resolution 2 km data that will be available from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager.  During the Science Test, a daily call-up of the desired schedule is based on decisions made by Science Test principals with input from many participating scientists.  For more information see the GOES-14 Science Test website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/.  (D. Hillger)

With the GOES-14 Science Test starting on 30 November, there is increased interest in the test.  D. Hillger and T. Schmit gave a tag-team presentation/seminar to the GOES-R Calibration Working Group on 16 November.  The presentations were about the Science Test schedules and procedures, as well as preliminary results to date.  In addition F. Wu gave a presentation on their planned calibration support activities.  Earlier that morning, the two participated in a teleconference with satellite operations about proposed test schedules for GOES-14, as well as continuing issues with a bias in band-6 (13.3 µm) data and upgrades to the associated spectral response function for that band.  A similar set of presentations were also given as part of a GOES Readiness Review sponsored by the Office of Satellite Data Processing & Distribution (OSDPD) Information Processing Division on 20 November, a live preview of which took place on 18 November.  (D. Hillger)

With the GOES-14 Science Test to begin on Monday, 30 November, the GOES-14 Science Test website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/ now has a link to a RAMSDIS Online sample of real-time GOES-14 data collected at the CIRA ground station.  That link is also provided here http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-14.asp.  The Science Test will continue for 5 weeks, through 4 January 2010, by invoking various schedules for the Imager and Sounder.  Goals of the Science Test include: 1) assessing data quality, 2) generating products, and 3) collecting special rapid-scan imagery.  Anybody not on the Science Test daily notification list, but desiring to be, should contact D. Hillger.  (D. Hillger, D. Watson, K. Micke)

The NOAA portion of the GOES-14 Post Launch Testing started on 30 November and will continue through 4 January 2010.  Various satellite scanning schedules are called each day of the test, with the weekend schedules determined on Fridays.  During this first week, the following schedules have already been called: emulation of GOES-east routine operations, continuous 30-minute full-disk imagery, continuous 1-minute rapid-scan imagery over the southeast U.S., and continuous 5-minute CONUS imagery to emulate ABI-like temporal resolution.  The Science Test is co-led by Tim Schmit and coordinated by a Science Team at CIRA, CIMSS, and NASA/MSFC.  D. Lindsey has been particularly busy with the rapid-scan imagery that was collected, and S. Bachmeier (at CIMSS) has provided quick feedback on some of the GOES-14 improvements.  Preliminary results, as well as daily schedules, are posted on the GOES-14 Science Test website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/ (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure 1: A full-disk visible image, collected as part of the GOES-14 Science Test.

The NOAA portion of the GOES-14 Post Launch Testing started on 30 November and continues through 4 January 2010.  Various satellite scanning schedules are called each day of the test.  During this second week, the following schedules have been called: emulation of GOES-west routine operations, continuous 1-minute rapid-scan imagery over the Huntsville AL, and continuous 5-minute CONUS imagery to emulate ABI-like temporal resolution.  In spite of the December time frame, the Science Test has been able to capture interesting weather events.  The Science Test is co-led by Tim Schmit and coordinated by a Science Team at CIRA, CIMSS, and NASA/MSFC.  Daily schedules and preliminary results are posted on the GOES-14 Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/.  Analysis highlights from the past week include rapid-scan image loops prepared by D. Lindsey (NESDIS/CIRA) and E. Bruning (UMD/CICS), a special analysis of over-sampled (simulated 2 km) GOES-14 data prepared by S. Kigawa of the Japan Meteorological Agency, and more Satellite Blog results prepared by S. Bachmeier (CIMSS).  The Science Test has recently been featured on the NESDIS/StAR website http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/index.php.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure 2: This 10.7 µm GOES-14 image from 0827 UTC on 9 December 2009 has lightning data overlaid. Lightning data (1-minute) show flash extent density at 4 km resolution. This is double the resolution of the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.  Composite image courtesy of Eric Bruning (UMD/CICS).

New hardware procured under 2009 IT Refresh has been configured.

Efforts are underway to implement Windows 7 and Windows 2008 Server upgrades.

Efforts are underway to port the CIRA GOES-E and GOES-W archive to NAS.  Effective January 1, 2010, data from the RAMMB GOES-E and GOES-W SDI ingestors will be the online and DVD archive.  (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2009:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 48:10, 2069-2085.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, R. Knabb, C. Lauer, C.R. Sampson, R.T. DeMaria, 2009:  A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Weather and Forecasting. 24:6, 1573–1591.

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2009: Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Wind-Pressure Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58:3, 167-179.

• Nonrefereed

Hillger, D.W., and R.L. Brummer, 2010: The GOES-14 and GOES-15 science tests: Last of the current GOES series, CIRA Newsletter, 34, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Fort Collins CO, 4-7.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2009: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2009:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In press.

Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2009: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T, S. Miller, L.D. Grasso, 2009: The impacts of the 9 April 2009 dust and smoke on convection. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2009:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

Setvák, M., M. Radová, P. Novák, D.T. Lindsey, L. Grasso, P. K. Wang, Shih-Hao Su, R. M. Rabin, J. Kerkmann, J. Šťástka, Z. Charvát, and H. Kyznarová, 2009: Convective storms with a cold-ring shaped cloud top feature. Atmos. Research.

Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2009: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method.  International Journal of Remote Sensing.  (Submitted revised).

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2009:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Hamill, T.M., M.J. Brennan, B. Brown, M. DeMaria, E.N. Rappaport, Z. Toth, 2011: Future Ensemble-Based Hurricane Forecast Products. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Knaff, J.A., D. P. Brown, J. Courtney, G. M. Gallina, J. L. Beven II, 2009:   An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates. Weather and Forecasting.

Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, D.W. Hillger, 2010: Detecting Fog over Antarctia from Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2009: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

Zupanski, D., 2009: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, M., 2009: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

• Nonrefereed 

Awards:

Presentations:

M. DeMaria gave a presentation entitled “Application of Satellite Dataa to Hurricane Forecasting” via WebEx and teleconference at the CREST Technical Conference on December 7th.

On October 28 and 30, M. DeMaria gave two lectures on tropical cyclone structure in Wayne Schubert’s AT710 Geophysical Vortices class in the CSU Atmospheric Science Department. The lectures viewed observations and theory on the symmetric and asymmetric structure of tropical cyclones with an emphasis on dynamical processes. A considerable amount of satellite data and products were used to illustrate variations in structure.

L. Grasso and D. Hillger presented details of their GOES-R ABI RGB (true-color) simulation efforts to Crystal Schaff at Boston University. Ms. Schaff provided the MODIS 16-day albedos used as the land surface for the ABI simulations.  It is hoped that these contacts will lead to further collaboration. 

L. Grasso gave an oral presentation at the 8th symposium on Fire Weather and Forest Meteorology.. – Grasso, L.D., R. Brummer, R.T. DeMaria, D.W. Hillger, 2009:  Synthetic GOES-R Imagery of Agricultural and Wild Fires.  Eight Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 13-15 October 2009, Kalispell, Montana.

J. Knaff gave a presentation at the National Hurricane Center entitled “Improving Intensity Estimates Using Operational Information” on October 1.

M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, and B Connell participated in the 6th GOES User’s Conference (GUC) held in Madison WI on 3-5 November 2009.  DeMaria gave a presentation on the RAMMB and CIRA contributions to the GOES-R Proving Ground and served as the Technical Liaison at the break-out session on atmospheric products. He also presented a poster on tropical cyclone applications of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, and was co-author on several other posters.  Hillger was on the GUC organizing committee, as well as prepared two posters for the conference, one on the GOES-14 Science Test, and the other on Imagery/Visualization work leading towards emulation of true-color (RGB) imagery for future GOES-R ABI use.  Hillger also met with several personnel from Satellite Operations who will be instrumental in the GOES-14 Science Test commencing on 30 November.  Connell prepared two posters, one on GOES-R training activities, and the other on the ShyMet course on satellite imagery interpretation.  DeMaria and Hillger also attended a second mini-conference on the 50th Anniversary of Meteorological Satellite Experiments was held the evening of 2 November, and included several speakers relating the early history of Explorer-XII, which was launched on 13 October 1959.  For the conference committee, Hillger helped arrange for a specially-cancelled postal cover to mark the 50th anniversary of that satellite. 

Posters:

Notes:

The manuscript “Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain)” by Cesar Azorin-Molina, Bernadette Connell, and Rafael Baena-Calatrava appeared in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol 48, No. 10.  Dr. Azorin-Molina visited CIRA during the summer of 2006 to collaborate with scientists on the use of NOAA-16 and 17 imagery in creating a stratified cloud climatology for regions in Spain.

Al Powell visited CIRA and RAMMB on October 20-21st. He arrived early in the afternoon of the first day. S. Miller and M. DeMaria met with him and the brought him to main campus to visit with the Dean of the Engineering College (Sandra Woods). Al described some new initiatives within NOAA and NESDIS. On the second day, science presentations on the RAMMB and CIRA activities were presented, along with considerable scientific discussion. Briefings were also provided on research by the CIRA National Park Service group, the DOD Geosciences Center at CIRA, and the Boulder CIRA work.   The visit was very successful in terms of informing Al about on-going science and providing the CSU administration of longer range NOAA plans.

George Grell from CIRES in Boulder, who works closely with ESRL in Boulder, visited CIRA. He gave a seminar on data assimilation and air quality work he is involved with, and possible methods for collaboration were discussed.

Naomi Surgi and Vijay Tallapragada from NCEP EMC visited CIRA to discuss the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). Methods to better coordinate the NCEP and CIRA activities were discussed, and a local version of the NCEP Hurricane WRF model diagnostics package was installed at CIRA to facilitate collaboration.

Collaborations continue with

Yi Jin at NRL: I’ll help her make synthetic imagery of the COAMPS model as part of the HFIP project. An abstract was submitted to the AMS’s 29 conference on Tropical Meteorology to be held in May 2010 in Tucson, Arizona. (L. Grasso)

Huiya Chuang and Vijay at NOAA/NCEP/EMC: I’ll be helping both of them produce synthetic imagery of the operational models. This work will be formalized in a planned  teleconference that will be led by Mark DeMaria in early 2010. (L. Grasso)

Russell Schneider, Chief, SPC science support branch: I’ll be visiting SPC in the spring and fall of 2010 to make synthetic imagery of their operational models. This is being funded by the GOES-R visiting scientist funds. (L. Grasso)

A new collaboration developed as a result of my oral presentation at the 8th symposium on Fire Weather and Forest Meteorology in October. This collaboration is with Dr. Wei Min Hao and Bryce Nordgren at the Fire Science Laboratory in Missoula, Montana. (L. Grasso)

Three proposals have been submitted through Grants.gov.: The WMO Visiting Scientist proposal entitled “In support of NOAA’s commitment to the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites: enhancing the International Virtual Laboratory” (PI: Bernadette Connell), the Ground Systems proposal entitled “Development of a Polar Satellite Processing System for Research and Training” (PI: Bernadette Connell), and the Cal/Val proposal entitled “Validation of Satellite-Based Thermodynamic Retrievals in the Tropics” (PI: Jack Dostalek).

D. Hillger attended a three-hour interactive Dale Carnegie seminar on 26 October, titled “Planning Presentations and Present to Inform.”  The seminar was one of a series of three seminars offered freely to CSU faculty and students, but primarily sponsored by the Department of Construction Management, in preparation for student participation in a nationwide speaking competition. 

D. Hillger participated in a two-hour session on Microsoft PowerPoint, focused on creating large-format posters, such as those used at many meteorological conferences.  The session was offered by Computer Applications Training (CAT), formerly known as Computer Training and Support Services (CTSS) at Colorado State University (CSU).

D. Hillger participated in two two-hour sessions on Microsoft Excel, one about more advanced Excel features, and the other about Excel charts and graphs.  The sessions were offered by Computer Applications Training (CAT), formerly known as Computer Training and Support Services (CTSS) at Colorado State University (CSU).