Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Work was completed on a major processing upgrade to RAMMB’s Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Data website, along with the addition of nine new experimental products.  The site offers various imagery and data for both active and archived tropical storms going back to 2006, and has received an ever-increasing amount of traffic during that time.  Due to the database getting so large (400,000+ images), combined with the high amount of traffic (average of 1,250 visits and 4,300 page views per day), the process to automatically update the site began to have performance issues.  After reorganizing the database and file system, and retooling how the update process runs, the updates that previously took 7-8 minutes to complete now run in only 15-20 seconds. (J. Knaff and K. Micke)

The forecasts from the NHC Monte Carlo surface wind probabilities for the period 2008-2010 (2010 based on preliminary best tracks) were verified.  In all measures verified (Brier Skill Scores, Multiplicative Biases, Relative Operating Statistics, Threat Scores, and Reliability) the forecasts improved from the previous 2006-2007 verifications.  The resulting threat scores and corresponding conditional probabilities associated with forecasts of cumulative probabilities of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds are shown below. These will be used in a publication to be submitted in the next quarter. (J. Knaff)

Figure Caption: The maximum conditional threat scores (x100) and threshold probabilities (%s) associated with the 2008-2010 MCP model verification of the cumulative probability forecast made in the North Atlantic (1o – 50oN, 110o – 1oW), East Pacific (1o – 40oN, 180o – 75oW), West Pacific (1o – 50oN, 100oE – 180o), and the combined multi-basin domain (1o – 60oN, 100oE – 1oW) are shown from the top, respectively.  Line/bar colors blue, red, green correspond to the 34, 50, and 64-kt wind probabilities and cumulative threat scores are shown as lines and the associated threshold probabilities are shown as bars.

Model resolutions complicate the diagnosis and verification of numerical tropical cyclone models.  This quarter we have worked to develop diagnostic techniques for tropical cyclone structure that are insensitive to model resolutions and the size of the radius of maximum winds.  The Holland (1980) B parameter has been used to examine the shape of the pressure gradient of model initialization and forecasts.  A paper is being prepared for publication. (J. Knaff)

A paper documenting the Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) was sent to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology and is in peer review. A manuscript entitled “A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid,” was accepted by Weather and Forecasting.  The paper shows how the Rapid Intensification Index can be used as a deterministic aid in a consensus intensity forecast system. (J. Knaff and M. DeMaria)

The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product was updated to use GOES-15 water vapor imagery.  Sample GOES-15 water vapor imagery was provided by SAB, a calibration function was developed at CIRA, and then an updated version of the operational TCFP source code was installed at NESDIS. (A. Schumacher)

An updated script and Fortran routine for validating the NESDIS TCFP was provided to Steven Earle at the Satellite Analysis Branch.  Output files from the version of the TCFP running at CIRA were also provided for 2010, since SAB was not able to access the operational product files due to complications associated with the NSOF systems freeze. (A. Schumacher)

Output files from the experimental global TCFP were provided to Tony Salemi at SAB for use in a Google Earth application he was developing.  Additionally, an ftp site was set up at CIRA to serve these files in real time. (A. Schumacher)

The algorithm developed at CIRA for providing automated watch and warning guidance to NHC forecasters using Monte Carlo wind speed probabilities was updated by 1) adding U.S. landfall cases from 2009 and 2010 to the developmental dataset and 2) rerunning the wind speed probabilities using the current developmental version of the MC wind speed probability model.  Updated probability thresholds are shown in Table 1.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria) 

Table1. Wind speed probability (WSP) scheme probability thresholds (pup) and corresponding probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and threat score (TS) for hurricane warnings, hurricane watches, tropical storm warnings and tropical storm watches from 2004 to 2010.  POD, FAR and TS are given using NHC watch and warning distances (NHC) and coastal distances observed to experience wind thresholds (obs).

Software written at CIRA has been running on the NCEP IBM to process AMSU data in BUFR format for use in tropical cyclone intensity fixes and structure analysis.  The software currently processes data from the AMSU instruments aboard NOAA-15, -16, and -18.  The preliminary code updating the processing to include AMSU data from NOAA-19, MetOp-2, and Aqua has been completed.  This quarter, an account was set up on the NCEP IBM, so the updated code can be transferred for testing and eventual operational implementation. (J. Dostalek)

The GOES-R proving ground at NHC concluded on November 30, 2010, which is the last day of the Atlantic hurricane season. Several GOES-R products were demonstrated including the CIMSS hurricane intensity estimation algorithm, experimental red-green-blue products for air mass and dust detection, and a lightning-based rapid intensification index. Several excellent super-rapid scan operations (SRSO) datasets were also collected, which was facilitated by the concomitance of the GOES-15 science test with the most active part of the 2010 hurricane season. A final report will be produced by February, 2011 in coordination with NHC and CIMSS. – (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, K. Micke)

J. Knaff returned from the WMO Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-7) where he co-presented a keynote topic (with B. Harper) and co-chaired a special session on the Dvorak Technique (with C. Velden).  The purpose of the IWTC is to promote interaction between the operational and research tropical cyclone communities and was held 15-20 November on La Reunion Island, France (21S, 56E).  A picture is provided of the workshop participants below and all documents related to the meeting can be found at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/otherfileformats/IWTCVII-documentation.htm.  (J. Knaff)

Figure Caption:  Participants of the WMO IWTC-7 held in La Reunion, France on 15-20 November 2010.

The tropical cyclone fix files generated by the AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm were provided to S. Montalvo (NHC) and C. Landsea (NHC) for their in-house evaluation of wind radii estimates.  Many of the fixes, while generated in real-time, were incomplete or missing in the operational fix records and CIRA/RAMMB were contacted to provide a more complete record from their archives.  (J. Knaff)

The NCAR/NOAA/CSU Tropical Cyclone Workshop, a tropical cyclone mini workshop (the sixth one), was held at CIRA on 7 October.  Twice a year these groups meet to discuss recent research results and future research directions.  The agenda of the latest meeting is shown below.   The next workshop has been tentatively scheduled for 1 April 2011.  (J. Knaff)

The Monte Carlo wind speed probability product (MCWSPP) verification code was shared.  The FORTRAN code that verifies the MCWSPP was provided to J. Brownlee at the Australian BoM. (J. Knaff)

The cloud climatology based on marine stratus depth work with Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service (NWS) office, and Becca Mazur with Cheyenne, WY NWS office is continuing. While there have been no telecons in this quarter, many emails have been exchanged.  Most of these have discussed the poster Cindy presented on this project at the American Meteorology Society (AMS) 17th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography and the resulting conference paper.  The conference paper entitled, An effort to improve marine stratus forecasts using satellite cloud climatologies for the Eureka, CA region, has been submitted. (C. Combs)

A preliminary method to identify solar regimes using ground solar irradiance measurements is complete.  It uses the average solar irradiance (as a percent of the expect) for a four hour period(morning, mid day, evening) plus the standard deviation.  It produced a category for each period: clear, scattered, broken, and overcast. Another method using Principle Components is also underway to classify the entire day.  Data from the Christman field instruments has been placed in files readable by Mathlab. 
(C. Combs, R. DeMaria)

MSG1 Data from March 2006 and 2007 have been run through the new snow algorithm.  Analysis is ongoing.  (C. Combs)

Fortran code for reading McIdas files has been transferred to Louie Grasso.  Next month, I will help him convert the code to work with the new GOES 13 data files. (C. Combs)

Developmental work continues on the GOES hail probability product.  Upgrades planned for the 2011 SPC Spring Experiment include providing separate forecasts for hail larger than 2″ in diameter, and generating probabilities for the 3-6 hour time window. 
(D. Lindsey)

The joint project with Dudley Chelton of CIOSS examining the Gulf Stream’s effects on the overlying atmosphere has continued.  Part of CIRA’s contribution is to run software which uses temperature profiles derived from AMSU data to compute various atmospheric parameters of interest (relative vorticity, divergence, vertical velocity).  For comparison, temperatures from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) will also be run in the code.  Work on using the NARR data is almost complete, with a few more tests to be run before the NARR dataset for the January/February 2007 period of study is processed.  (J. Dostalek)

Some wintertime midlatitude cyclones display the classic “comma” pattern in satellite imagery.  Others show a separation between the comma head and the clouds associated with the cold and the warm fronts (see images below).  Work is being done with former CSU Master’s student Darren Van Cleave, now with the NSW in Rapid City, SD, on how to explain this difference. (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.  Midlatitude cyclone with classic comma shape.

Figure 2.  Midlatitude cyclone with comma head separated from clouds along the warm and cold fronts.

As part of the GOES-R Risk Reduction program, a tropopause wind product is being developed.  Combining measurements from radiosondes, COSMIC, GOES, and OMI, the nondivergent wind field can be estimated at the tropopause (i.e. jet-stream level).  The basis of the technique is the relationship between lower-stratospheric ozone and the vorticity at the tropopause derived by Vaughn and Price (1991).  The date of the case currently being studied is 9 March 2009.  Investigation continued about how to best resolve the problems due (likely) to a row anomaly in the OMI data (see figure).
(J. Dostalek)

Figure 1. OMI retrieval locations and contours of total ozone.  Blue lines show gaps in the retrieval  which the contouring routine appears to have filled correctly.  Red lines show gaps in data for which the contours indicate a problem in the data.  Although still under investigation, the data problems along the red lines are thought to be due to the row anomaly in the OMI instrument.

Work on the“Kyrill” case is complete. A manuscript entitled, “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” is currently in press. (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria)

Work on the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case is complete. A manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” is currently in press. (D. Lindsey and L. Grasso)

Collaboration continues with Shobha Kondragunta (NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research). We led a teleconference with Shobha and her group this quarter. We discussed our findings about the quality of their synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery. (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and R. Brummer)

Figure: Synthetic GOES-R 3.9 µm image valid at 1800 UTC 24 August 2006. This is based on a 4 km wrf-chem simulation.

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Five WRF-ARW Microphysics Schemes Using Synthetic GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript is in press.  (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P. J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

Collaboration with John Walker at the University of Alabama-Huntsville continues as a result of the Aviation AWG work. Together we are working on boundary layer moisture depth through the use of channel differences and convective initiation.  Additionally, we have acquired a second year of AWG funds to provide additional synthetic GOES-R data to Wayne and his group.  (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

Collaboration continues with Yi Jin at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. She sent COAMPS output of a simulation of hurricane Igor. Synthetic GOES-13 imagery at 6.48 and 10.7 µm was generated for eight runs. (L. Grasso)

As part of the 2010 Spring Experiment at the Storm Prediction Center, we made real time GOES-R imagery. This imagery was made from the NSSL 4km WRF-ARW real time runs. We have been making such imagery continuously at CIRA since May 2010. The figure below is an example 10.35 µm image valid at 00Z on 24 April 2010 (a 24-hour forecast).  This quarter, we began producing additional bands from the real time runs. In addition to 6.95 and 10.35 µm, 7.34, 8.5, and 12.3 µm have been included. Further, three channel difference have been produced and they are 8.5-10.35, 8.5-12.3, and 10.35-12.3. The additional bands along with the three channel difference will be placed on the CIRA Proving Ground website. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey, Bob Rabin (NSSL/CIMSS), Scott Dembeck (NASA), Jack Kain (NSSL), Chris Siewert (SPC))

Figure.  Synthetic 10.35 µm GOES-R ABI image valid at 00 UTC on 24 April 2010 based on a 24-hour forecast from SPC’s 4-km WRF-ARW simulation.

Data from the NSSL WRF-ARW is now being converted into AWIPS format and provided via LDM to the NWS Central Region.  As of Dec. 2010, the Boulder, Pueblo, and Riverton NWS offices are pulling in the data and displaying it on their AWIPS systems.  Five GOES-R ABI bands are being provided, from 12Z of Day 1 to 12Z of Day 2, hourly.  The feedback from the NWS has been overwhelmingly positive.  We will provide this same data, along with some channel differences, to the SPC for the 2011 Spring Experiment in May and June 2011.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, H. Gosden, D. Molenar)

A proposal was submitted for GOES-R Risk Reduction entitled “Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation.”  It is a joint proposal with individuals from CIRA, CIMSS, Alabama-Huntsville, NSSL, and CREST.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

The existing less-Green bias in the synthetic-Green and synthetic-RGB images, being created in nearly every case, has prompted a review of the Rayleigh-correction and green Look-Up-Table (LUT) processes.  Search for errors in the existing processes has only uncovered minor discrepancies to date, nothing that has changed the resulting images to any significant level.  Therefore, a major update of the Rayleigh-correction and green LUT are being examined.  Steve Miller has available newer versions of both algorithms, but they need to be adapted to work with simulated ABI instead of MODIS imagery.  This task is expected to take some time, and the algorithms will then need to be tested on the numerous simulated ABI and MODIS examples that have been used as case study examples. (D. Hillger)

In Figures 1 and 2 are simulated ABI and MODIS RGB examples showing the same less-Green bias compared to the “real” RGB in each case.  This bias is larger than expected, and it is prompting a re-examination of the entire RGB processing, in an effort to produce synthetic-RGB images more similar to “real” RGB images.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: “Real” RGB (top) and synthetic-RGB (bottom) images from model-simulated ABI.  Both RGB images are Rayleigh-corrected.  The synthetic-RGB image appears to be much-less-green than in previous examples, but also less-green than the “real” RGB image for this model-simulated ABI case.

Figure 2: Example of MODIS RGB (top) and synthetic-RGB (bottom) images for the same date and time as the simulated ABI images in Figure 1.  Both images are Rayleigh-corrected. A comparison of these two images reveals the same less-Green bias in the synthetic vs. real RGB.

 Four new Proving Ground WFO partner sites have been added to the CIRA Proving Ground product feed.  The sites are Eastern Region HQ, Pueblo, CO, Riverton, WY, and Grand Junction, CO. (D.       Molenar)

      Data dissemination algorithms and software were re-worked to allow for modified data transmission of 1 KM MODIS Cloud, Snow and Cirrus Discrimination products.   Many WFO partners have       limited bandwidth, so modifications were made to tag and transmit MODIS products by WFO site. (D. Molenar)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

25 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 43 teletraining signups, 104 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

           
Registrations:  178
Completions:  119

LMS totals from January 2005 through December 13, 2010:

Registrations:  4222

Completions: 2602

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New web-pages for VISIT:

• New web-pages for VISIT debuted this quarter: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/

New training sessions:

• Forecasting Atmospheric Rivers by Dave Reynolds (WFO MTR)
• The UW NearCasting Product by Scott Lindstrom (CIMSS)

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW model in Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms.
• Utilizing Synthetic Imagery from the NSSL 4 km WRF-ARW model in Forecasting Orographic Cirrus.
• The Analysis and Forecast of Severe Weather Associated with the Dryline (Jeff Braun).
• GIMPAP sponsored winter weather research (Henry’s Rule), see note below under research. 

Research:

• J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in ongoing research regarding analysis of satellite imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.

Collaboration:

J. Braun is continuing collaboration with the NWS Alaskan Region Environmental and Scientific Services Division (ESSD) as well as the NWS Alaskan Aviation Unit and NWS Center Weather Service Unit for the production of the second of a two part series to be used in the VISIT and SHyMet programs that addresses Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash.  Volcanic Ash Part 1 is now finished and has been published for SHyMet within NOAA’s LMS.  Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part 2 is close to completion. 

J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

Publications:

• J. Braun completed work on paper with Russ Schumacher(lead author), Dan Lindsey, Andrea Schumacher, Steve Miller and Julie Demuth (2010):  Current citation:  Multidisciplinary Analysis of an Unusual Tornado: Meteorology, Climatology, and the Communication and Interpretation of Warnings

Russ S. Schumacher, Daniel T. Lindsey, Andrea B. Schumacher, Jeff Braun, Steven D. Miller, Julie L. Demuth
Weather and Forecasting
Volume 25, Issue 5 (October 2010) pp. 1412-1429

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/) – (J. Braun) Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds.  The blog averages about 250 views per week. 
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – December 15, 2010.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:

Meetings and Calls

The annual VISIT / SHyMet meeting was held at COMET on October 26.  The agenda included a review of progress in training activities to date and plans for the upcoming year for VISIT and SHyMet training.  Emphasis will be placed on continued collaboration with GOES-R proving ground products, so that related training coincides with availability of new products.

On 9 November, B Connell participated in the Eastern Region Satellite Virtual Workshop and gave a presentation on “CIRA/RAMMB GOES-R Proving Ground Activities and NEW VISIT and SHYMET training.”  The virtual workshop was organized and hosted by Frank Alsheimer, the NWS Science and Operations Officer (SOO) at Charleston, SC and ran all day.  There were a mix of presentations from forecasters, trainers, satellite operations, and program managers.  The Forecasters presented case studies on Orographically Induced Cirrus Clouds and snowstorms of the past winter, trainers from CIRA, CIMSS, COMET, and SPoRT presented updates on activities.  A number of presentations provided information on the GOES-R Proving ground activities. 

VISIT/SHyMet had a conference call on November 19.

SHyMet had a conference call on December 13.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participates in the COMET monthly satellite call to keep informed of training efforts there. (D. Bikos and J. Braun)

Tropical SHyMet training course.  Began August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

SHyMet Tropical Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

1  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. – Dec. 2010) for the SHyMet Tropical Development Plan (11 total for August 2010 through Dec. 16, 2010)  2 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  3 having completed since its inception.

SHyMet Tropical – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Tropical individual class/session breakdown through Dec. 16, 2010 (for “online” training only).

• 75 registered for individual SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
• 58 completed SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
• 240 total registrations for individual SHyMet Tropical modules (for the period August 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

Individual SHyMet Tropical Session Metrics – Registered through LMS:

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics:  13 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (28 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP):  11 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (24 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC:  13 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (67 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC: 15 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (63 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique: 3 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (16 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

• ASCAT Winds: 10 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (26 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products: 10 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (16 total for period Aug. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

SHyMet For Forecasters training course:  released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :

This Development Plan includes 6 core modules plus two optional modules:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA) – Optional
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA) – Optional

• Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part One has been completed and placed within the LMS.  Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part 2 is completed and in the process of being recorded.  J. Braun is coordinating the effort with the Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) and deputy director Jeff Oseinsky.
• SHyMet for Forecasters: Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (Satellite Cloud Climatology) has been completed and placed within the LMS (Bernie Connell and Dan Bikos).

SHyMet For Forecasters Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

4  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. – Dec. 2010) for the SHyMet Forecasters Course Development Plan (28 total for January 2010 through Dec. 16, 2010)  3 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  12 having completed since its inception.

2 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA for the SHyMet Forecasters Course between January 2010 –Dec. 16, 2010.  There were no completions this quarter.

SHyMet For Forecasters – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Forecasters individual class/session breakdown through Dec. 16, 2010 (for “online” training only).

• 57 registered for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
• 36 completed SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
• 237 total registrations for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules (for the period January 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

Individual SHyMet Forecasters Session Metrics – Registered through LMS:

1. Intro to Remote Sensing for Hydrologists:  12 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (42 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
2. Aviation Hazards:  11 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (60 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
3. GOES-R 101:  6 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (24 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
4. Satellite Apps for Tropical Cyclones (Dvorak): 5 have registered through the LMS this quarter. (32 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
5. Water Vapor Channels: 4 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (32 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
6. Interpreting Satellite Signatures: 8 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (29 total for period January 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

Optional SHyMet Forecasters Sessions: 

7.  SHyMet for Forecasters: Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES: 1 has registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (1 total for period Dec. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)
8.  SHyMet for Forecasters: Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part One: 11 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter. (11 total for period Dec. 1, 2010 – Dec. 16, 2010)

SHyMet Intern course (Development Plan)
The SHyMet Intern course continues to be offered online.  It consists of 9 modules
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

SHyMet Intern Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

6  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. 2010 – Dec. 2010) for the SHyMet Intern Course – 259 total for April 2006 through Dec. 16, 2010.  3 Participants completed the course this quarter for a total of 122 registered completions.

2 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA this quarter for the SHyMet Intern Course. (32 total for April 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010)  There was one completion this quarter.

SHyMet Intern – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Intern individual class/session breakdown through
Dec. 16, 2010 (for “online” training only).

• 68 registered for individual SHyMet Intern  modules for 4th Quarter 2010
• 44 completed SHyMet Intern modules for 4th Quarter 2010
• 3517 total registrations for individual SHyMet modules (for the period April 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010)

Individual SHyMet Intern Session Metrics – Registered through LMS:

• Orientation:  13 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (471 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• GOES Intro:  11 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (423 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• GOES Channel Selection…:  10 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (443 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• POES:  5 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (382 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• GOES Sounder: 9 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (341 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• High Density Winds:  6 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (318 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• Cyclogenesis:  4 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (333 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• Severe Weather:  6 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (392 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).
• Tropical Cyclones:  4 have registered through the LMS for this session this quarter (412 total for period April 1, 2006 – Dec. 16, 2010).

ALL SHYMET Total Registered in LMS Since Inception: 3994

                            Total Completed in LMS Since Inception: 2576

Progress on new SHyMet for Hydrologists training course:
As of the December 13 meeting, the SHyMet team out of Boulder has taken the lead in developing the content of the course.  For content development, we will assist when requested.  When the content has been developed, we will assist with the logistics of adding materials to the web and the LMS

New directions for SHyMet:
In light of the recent developments for SHyMet for Hydrologists, we will refocus efforts to look at training with a focus on aviation weather and hazards. (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for October, November, and December 2010) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the NWS Training Division, and the NWS International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Uruguay.  The participants included researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 15 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  M. Davison at NCEP International Desk led the discussions.  Over the past 3 months, we discussed quite a few unusual patterns: the rapid transition during October weeks from an ITCZ that was unusually far north to one that was unusually far south for this time of year.  Over Northern South America, we looked at the positions of the Bolivian High and the developing Tropical Upper Troposhperic Trough (TUTT) to its east.  Where it sets up will influence whether Guyana experiences a drier or rainier pattern.  We also discussed indications that the current El Niño pattern will give way to a La Niña pattern early in 2011.   During the sessions, participants provided comments on local and regional current weather phenomena.

During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.

Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the new 2-week archive feature (thanks Kevin!):  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).  Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Distribution of NOAA Technical Report on the GOES-14 Science Test:  With the data collection phase of the GOES-15 Science Test just completed in September, only 9 months after the same testing for GOES-14, it is appropriate that the GOES-14 Science Test report was finalized and distributed.  Although the report is available online as a PDF at the GOES-14 Science Test website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/, copies of the NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 131 have been written to 32 individual CDs and mailed to the NOAA Central Library Reference Desk for distribution to NOAA Libraries around the U.S.  The accumulated, reviewed, and edited results of the GOES-14 Science Test, for which the data collection occurred in December 2009, has been approved by NOAA for public release.  Copies of the CD will also be sent to anyone who requests one.  The GOES Science Tests are co-lead by D. Hillger (STAR/RAMMB) and T. Schmit (STAR/ASPB). (D. Hillger)

Figure: Cover page of the GOES-14 Science Test NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 131.

With the GOES-14 Science Test Technical Report now complete, there is interest in the lessons learned that can be applied to future GOES-R Science Testing.  D. Hillger and T. Schmit gave a tag-team presentation/seminar to a management review meeting held at the National Satellite Operations Facility (NSOF) on 8 November 2010.  The presentations explained the Science Test schedules and procedures, as well as Science Test results for GOES-14 and preliminary results for the GOES-15 Science Test.  In addition, H. Bysal gave a presentation on GOES-15 Incident Reports (GIRs) that are still open/un-resolved.  The primary recommendation for the future was that with the complexity and major changes that will take place, that one year be allowed for GOES-R Science Testing, whether or not all of that time is formally considered to be Science Testing.  (D. Hillger)

D. Hillger participated in a Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Baseline of Estimate (BOE) Review on 10 November 2010.  As leader of the JPSS Imagery Product Team, slides were prepared for presentation on the Imagery algorithm(s), in particular the Ground Track Mercator (GTM) remapping of VIIRS Sensor Data Records (SDRs) into Environmental Data Records (EDRs).  The main deficiency at this point is the fact that not all of the coarser-resolution spectral bands are currently destined to become EDRs, some of which are not available as fine-resolution EDRs.  It is proposed that all the VIIRS spectral bands become EDRs, and the imagery visualization/display become part of the Imagery Team.  The algorithm changes are being proposed for JPSS-1, and not the NPP satellite, in that there is no time or money to make algorithm changes before cutoff date for changes. (D. Hillger)

New RAMMB hardware and software requirements for 2011 have been re-worked to accommodate hardware budget cuts.  Development of 5 year plan for infrastructure upgrades is underway. (D. Molenar)

A new mail server has been configured to support the Tropical Cyclone mail group currently supported privately by Bill Thorson. (D. Molenar)

A new software template has been developed to overhaul RAMSDIS Online product ingest and archive.  The software runs in background and creates virtual loops instead of using video display, so one system can host many RAMSDIS product generators.  Efforts are underway to modify old RAMSDIS applications to help alleviate growing ROL support requirements.   Ingest of single channel GVAR imagery now utilizes the new software, which was instrumental in the successful ROL service of 1 minute GOES-15 imagery during satellite checkout. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

• Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., D. Bikos, J. Braun, A. S. Bachmeier, S. S. Lindstrom, A. Mostek, M. DeMaria, and T. J. Schmit, 2011: Training for GOES-R directed towards forecasters. AMS Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

Connell, B.H., and L. Veeck, 2011: New forecaster training paradigm for GOES-R? AMS Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

DeMaria, M., J.A Knaff, M J. Brennan, J.L. Beven, R T. DeMaria, A B. Schumacher, J. Kaplan, and N.W.S. Demetriades, 2011: Tropical cyclone rapid intensity change forecasting using lightning data during the 2010 GOES-R Proving Ground at the National Hurricane Center. AMS Fifth Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

Gurka, J.J., S.J. Goodman, T.J. Schmit, A. Mostek, S.D. Miller, A.S. Bachmeier, M. DeMaria, and B. Reed, 2011: GOES-R proving ground: plans for 2011 and beyond.AMS Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

Reed, B., C. W. Siewert, R. S. Schneider, G. L. Hufford, B. Entwhistle, M. DeMaria, D. Reynolds, and M.J. Brennan, 2011: GOES-R Proving Ground—Demonstrating GOES-R products in 2010. AMS 24th Conference on Weather and Forecasting/20th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

Szoke,E.J., R.L. Brummer, H. Gosden, S.D. Miller, M. DeMaria, and D.A. Molenar, 2011: An overview of CIRA’s contribution to the GOES-R Proving Ground. AMS Seventh Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 23-27 January, Seattle, WA.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2010:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2010: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing. (In press)

Jankov I., L.D. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P.J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D.T. Lindsey, and R.L. Brummer, 2010: An Evaluation of Five WRF-ARW Microphysics Schemes Using Synthetic GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast. Journal of Hydrometeorology. In Press.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2010:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

Setvák, M., M. Radová, P. Novák, D.T. Lindsey, L. Grasso, P. K. Wang, Shih-Hao Su, R. M. Rabin, J. Kerkmann, J. Šťástka, Z. Charvát, and H. Kyznarová, 2010: Convective storms with a cold-ring shaped cloud top feature. Atmos. Research.

Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2010: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method.  International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In Press.

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2011:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Knaff, J.A., and M. DeMaria, 2011: A deterministic rapid intensification aid. Wea. and Forecasting

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, and D.A. Molenar, 2011: An automated, objective, multi-satellite platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. J. of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, and D.W. Hillger, 2011: Detecting Fog over Antarctia from Satellite. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Lindsey, D.T., B. McNoldy, Z. Finch, D. Henderson, D. Lerach, R. Seigel, J. Steinweg-Woods, E. Stuckmeyer, G. Williams, D. Van Cleave, and M. Woloszyn, 2011:  A High Wind Statistical Prediction Model for the Northern Front Range of Colorado.. Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology.

Sampson, C.R., J. Kaplan, J.A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, C.A. Sisko, 2011: A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid. Note in Wea. Forecasting.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2011: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

• Nonrefereed 

Awards:

Presentations:

M. DeMaria gave a lecture entitled “Satellite Applications to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting” in Tom Vonder Haar’s graduate level satellite meteorology course in the Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science, October 26.

Grasso, L.D., 2010: Two oral presentations, 14th Great Divide Weather Workshop, 2-4 November, Billings, MT.

Grasso, L.D., and W. Feltz, 2010: GOES-R Activities at CIMSS

Knaff J.A., and B. Harper, 2010:  TC Surface Wind Structure & the Related Pressure-Wind Relationships, Keynote Topic 1, WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. 15 November 2010, St. Giles, La Reunion, France.

D. Lindsey gave an invited talk on November 3 at a model verification workshop at NCAR in Boulder entitled “Simulating satellite imagery from high-resolution WRF output: A method for cloud verification?” 

D. Lindsey traveled to the Boulder Weather Forecast Office and gave a short presentation on the two new GOES-R Proving Ground Products CIRA is providing for them: synthetic 6.95 µm and 10.35 µm imagery from real-time runs of NSSL’s WRF-ARW.  BOU is already receiving several other proving ground products. 

Virtual Meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory Management Group:  CIRA and the NWS Training Division participated in a virtual meeting of the VLMG on 19 October for the Virtual Laboratory for Training and Education in Satellite Meteorology (VLab) (http://vlab.wmo.int ).  The VLab was established under the WMO Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) to promote effective use of satellite meteorology throughout the WMO member countries.  The VLab consists of members from major satellite operators across the globe collaborating with WMO centres of excellence.  The meeting topics included organization of an Aviation events week, qualifications, classifications, and competencies of meteorologists, updates to the guide for running VLab training events, as well as widening the scope of the VLab.  The next virtual meeting is scheduled for mid- February 2011.  (B. Connell)

Eastern Region Satellite Virtual Workshop:  On 9 November, B. Connell participated in the Eastern Region Satellite Virtual Workshop and gave a presentation on “CIRA/RAMMB GOES-R Proving Ground Activities and NEW VISIT and SHYMET training.”  The virtual workshop was organized and hosted by Frank Alsheimer, the NWS Science and Operations Officer (SOO) at Charleston, SC and ran all day.  There were a mix of presentations from forecasters, trainers, satellite operations, and program managers.  The Forecasters presented case studies on Orographically Induced Cirrus Clouds and snowstorms of the past winter, trainers from CIRA, CIMSS, COMET, and SPoRT presented updates on activities.  A number of presentations provided information on the GOES-R Proving ground activities. (B. Connell)

Community Outreach:  B. Connell gave a presentation on the GOES and the characteristics of its channels to a Remote Sensing class at the Metropolitan State College of Denver on November 30.  Since the Remote Sensing class focuses mainly on earth resource topics, the students were presented with the perspective of how meteorologists view and use satellite imagery. (B. Connell)

Posters:

Lindsey, D.T., 2010: A statistical hail prediction product. 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 11-14 October, Denver, CO.

Lindsey, D.T., L.D. Grasso, D. Bikos, J. Sieglaff, J. Otkin, B. Rabin, and J. Kain, 2010: Simulating GOES-R Satellite Imagery from WRF Output. 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 11-14 October, Denver, CO.

Grasso, L.D., D.T. Lindsey, W.M. MacKenzie, Jr., 2010: Detecting boundary layer moisture convergence with GOES-R ABI bands. 25th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 11-14 October, Denver, CO.

The Taiwan Central Weather BureauDeputy Director (Kuo-Chen Lu) and an applications developer (Hsiao-Chung Tsai) visited CIRA on December 7 as part of a two-week visit to the U.S. Informal discussions were held on experimental and operational tropical cyclone forecast products. (J. Dostalek)

All RAMMB staff participated in individual meetings with Jerald Hage and Jeffrey Lucas from the U. Maryland Center for Innovationon November 30 and December 1. The general topics of discussion included ways to improve STAR management and upcoming scientific and administrative challenges.

Wayne Feltz from UW/CIMSS visited CIRA and RAMMB to discuss topics of mutual interest. On October 21, he gave a presentation entitled “GOES-R Overview of Aviation and Nowcasting Applications Current Status and a Look into Future” as part of the regular Department of Atmospheric Science seminar series. He also met with several CIRA and RAMMB staff to discuss tropical cyclone applications of the GOES-R overshooting top algorithm, coordination on the delivery of synthetic satellite imagery for the GOES-R proving ground and joint severe weather research.

Al Powell visited RAMMB and CIRA on October 14th. He met informally with several RAMMB and CIRA staff. Several items were discussed including STAR’s role in JPSS, current RAMMB research, the new CIRA building, the possibility of having CIRA participate in the Satellite Algorithm Testbed effort, and travel and publication funding issues.

Bob Rabin (NSSL) visited RAMMB twice during this quarter.  He is collaborating in a number of areas, including the severe weather GIMPAP and GOES-R projects. 

D. Hillger was interviewed via telephone on 1 December 2010 by Lori Kozlowski of the Los Angeles Times.  Ms. Koslowski was interested in interviewing scientists who are actively pro-metric, asking about the slow adoption of the metric system by the U.S.  Of interest is why the U.S. continues to hold out in an otherwise metric world, and what scientists are doing about this.  Hillger is the Webmaster for the U.S. Metric Association (USMA), with website at www.metric.org. (D. Hillger)

Colorado State University issued a press release on a recently published paper on hurricanes in the northern Gulf of Mexico (see http://www.news.colostate.edu/release.aspx?id=5506) . The study was joint effort with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, CIRA and NESDIS/RAMMB, which showed that hurricanes approaching the northern Gulf have some interesting behavior due to the underlying ocean structure, as identified by satellite altimetry data. The new results have the potential to improve hurricane intensity forecasts in that area. M. DeMaria provided a telephone interview to Mark Schleifstein from the New Orleans Times-Picayune who was preparing a story as a follow-up to the CSU press release. (M. DeMaria and A. Schumacher)

Proposals entitled “Development of a Real-Time Automated Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis” and “Improvements to Statistical Tropical Cyclone Models” were submitted to the Joint Hurricane Testbed via grants.gov. (R. Brummer, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria).

All RAMMB staff participated in individual meetings with Jerald Hage and Jeffrey Lucas from the U. Maryland Center for Innovation. The general topics of discussion included ways to improve STAR management and upcoming scientific and administrative challenges, November 30 and December 1. (M. DeMaria)