Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

A hybrid statistical-dynamical wind speed probability product is currently under development.  This product will use a methodology similar to the Monte Carlo wind speed probability (MCWSP) product.  However, the realization tracks will be replaced with forecast tracks for 93 global numerical model ensemble members (21 each from the GFS and CMC and 51 from the ECMWF) provided by T. Marchok at GFDL.  Verification of 2011 Atlantic tropical cyclone cases suggests that the hybrid statistical-dynamical wind speed probabilities improve forecast skill for larger wind speed thresholds (e.g., 64-kt) at longer forecast times (4-5 days), as shown in the figure below. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

Figure:  Brier Skill Scores (reference is a prob = 0% forecast everywhere) and threat scores averaged over all probability thresholds for 64-kt wind speed probabilities for the operational setup generating 1000 realizations (blue), operational setup generating 93 realizations (green) and hybrid setup using numerical model ensemble track forecasts (red).  Since only 93 numerical model ensemble members were available, the operational setup was run both with the standard number of realizations (1000) and a reduced number equal to the number of model tracks (93).

Code and scripts for the NESDIS Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product were adapted to read Reynold’s weekly sea surface temperature data in binary format instead of ASCII.  This change was necessary in order to install and run the Global TCFP in real time on NESDIS operational systems.  (A. Schumacher)

Two tropical cyclone products developed at CIRA, the Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTCSWA) and the statistical intensity and wind radii estimate, use vertical temperature profiles derived from microwave data in their calculations.  For years, these soundings have been provided by a statistical retrieval method.  With the advent of the Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS), the successor to NESDIS’ operational Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System, a more up-to-date retrieval package is available to provide the temperature soundings for the tropical cyclone products.  The two products will be generated with the statistical soundings and the MIRS soundings to compare the resulting wind speed differences.  It is expected that the use of the MIRS soundings will result in more accurate wind fields.  Data containing satellite retrievals matched up with dropsondes and radiosondes for Hurricane Irene of the 2011 season have been received from NESDIS.  The data are currently being sorted to determine which matchups will be used for further study.  This work is part of the CIRA Cal/Val project. (J. Dostalek)

The effect of large-scale vertical motion on tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic is being investigated using an omega equation valid for the whole sphere.  Work on this project continued this quarter by investigating the differences in omega between disturbances which developed into tropical cyclones and those which dissipated.  Because disturbances tend to develop differently depending on the location in the Atlantic, three different subbasins are being considered: the tropical Atlantic, the subtropical Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico. (J. Dostalek)

The MTCSWA was declared operational in late September.  Updated documentation for the MTCSWA products was provided to PSD.  MTCSWA was transitioned to operations and documentation, web pages, etc. was also updated. Real-time MTCSWA can be found at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html. (J. Knaff)

ENSO CLIPER forecasts, that appear in the NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin and are part of the IRI ENSO ensemble/plume, had to be re-run manually (usually these update automatically) due to issues on the NCEP IBM because the data necessary were 1) in different formats and 2) not updated.   Effort was made to obtain the data, re-run and disseminate the forecasts.  Real-time scripts were updated to help reduce failed forecasts in the future. (J. Knaff)

Holland B TC diagnostics of Mariawere created using the best track data and forecast information contained in the ATCF databases.   Results show that the HFIP stream 1.0 models struggled to initialize Maria, but did a relatively good job of capturing the structure beyond the 24 hours.   Time series of the initial and 24h forecasts in terms of simplified Holland B (note larger (smaller) Holland B depicts smaller tight (larger broad) vortices) are shown below.   Results were presented to NCEP and NHC forecasters.  More information on simplified Holland B can be found in Knaff et al. (2011, Weather and Forecasting). (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

 
Caption:  Simplified Holland B time series of initial conditions (top) and 24h forecasts (bottom) of Tropical Storm Maria.   Results are shown for the advisory/tc vitals (red), the HWRF model (green) and the GFDL model (blue).  Also shown are the climatological ranges of simplified Holland B derived from the Atlantic best track.

Oceanic response to tropical cyclone passage was investigated using a six-year daily upper ocean dataset created using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) and GODAE data.   A number of results were found concerning the mean decrease of energy in the upper ocean including SSTs cooling as a function of lead time, initial conditions, tropical cyclone intensity, translation speed, kinetic energy and latitude.   Results are being prepared for publication in the Journal of Climate. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

West Pacific SHIPS/LGEM: Versions of SHIPS and LGEM have been developed for the Western North Pacific.  These statistical tropical cyclone models improve upon existing models by 10 to 15% and will be transitioned to JTWC operations for the 2012 season (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

NHC, HPC, OPC, and SAB Proving Ground experiments were supported by local generation of a GOES Sounder-based RGB Air Mass product that made use of both GOES-E and GOES-W sounder sectors.   Work this quarter involved coordination with SPoRT in Huntsville, AL, training, archival, dissemination, and web display.  More information about this product can be found at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-r_proving_ground.asp#GOES_Sounder-Based_Products.   (J. Knaff, K. Micke)

Objective TC size measures have a number of potential uses from research to operational applications. Using the Atlantic and East Pacific storms contained in CIRA IR TC image archive and a size parameter derived from the GFS analysis (i.e., the tangential wind at r=500 km or VT500), an objective method for estimating tropical cyclone size based on a single IR image, storm position and storm intensity was developed.   Results show that 35%  of the variances of VT500could be explained using information in the imagery along with latitude and storm intensity, which was 13% greater than the latitude and intensity alone.   The amount of variance explained was lower than was initially expected.   However upon examination of individual cases, it was clear that this objective method was doing a good job of detecting changes in TCs, which suggest that the VT500 metric contains not only contributions from the storm circulation, but from  the environmental flow that surround the storm.  (J. Knaff)

The VT500 predicted from the imagery was normalized by the climatological expected VT500 as a function of latitude and intensity, similar to Knaff and Zehr (2007) which creates a nearly normal distribution of TC size.     Using this standardized metric of size composites of small (<-0.67 σ), average and large (> 0.67 σ) TCs composites were created as a function of three separate intensities as shown in the figure below. (J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

Caption:  Composite average brightness temperatures within 600 km of the center of east Pacific and Atlantic tropical cyclones.  These are motion relative composites with the TCs moving toward the top of the page.   First, second and third rows show composites that have intensities between 29 and 44 knots, 64 and 76 knots and 102 and 114 knots.  The columns represent the smallest 25%, average sized, and the largest 25% in our sample, going left to right.  Titles provide statistics for each panel and the temperature scales are identical for all panels. 

The algorithm for generation of the ABI Green band has been upgraded to a version that uses Rayleigh-corrected images, and produces more-realistic Green and Natural Color/RGB images.  While the old version of the algorithm produced Natural Color images that were too green for large zenith angles, the new version does not have that problem.  Images are posted on the RAMMB TC-Realtime website (http://rammb/products/tc_realtime/) along with other TC products.  Although currently being applied to MODIS imagery, this real-time production of green and RGB images is a good test for this algorithm, which will be applied to future GOES-R ABI data.  An example from Tropical Cyclone KEILA when it was located just off the Arabian Peninsula is shown below. (J. Knaff, D. Hillger)

Caption: Natural Color image of Tropical Cyclone KEILA in the Arabian Sea.

As part of the GOES-R Risk Reduction program, GOES sounder measurements of total column ozone were used in conjunction with an equation relating the total ozone to the vorticity at the tropopause (Vaughan and Price, 1991).  The vorticity was then inverted to get an estimate of the nondivergent winds at the tropopause.  The derived winds compare favorably to the nondivergent winds computed from GFS data.  A journal article is currently being prepared for submission. Reference:  Vaughan, G. and J. D. Price, 1991: On the relation between total ozone and meteorology.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,117, 1281-1298.   (J. Dostalek)

With the approach of winter, the product description for the CIRA Snow-Cloud Discrimination product has been expanded at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/goes-r/proving_ground/cira_product_list/snow_cloud_discriminator_3_color_technique.asp. This decision aid product is currently being produced only at a CONUS scale, available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp, but will be generated on a scale that is more suitable for AWIPS in the near future.  (D. Hillger, K. Micke)

The work on the solar regime is continuing.  Various methods using K-means clustering have been explored.  Using the difference between the clear sky and observations, each day was split up into three, 4 hour periods, with the mean and standard deviation calculated for each period. First, the data set using matching sets of mean and standard deviation was analyzed with the Kmean function in MATLAB using various numbers of clusters ranging from 4 to 30.  While the results looked promising, there were problems getting the clusters to ‘separate’.  Next, each day’s set of mean and standard deviation (six variables) were run through the Kmean function for cluster sizes 10 to 30.  Again, while there seemed to be some promise, there was still difficulty getting the clusters to separate.

Suspecting that stray data points were skewing the centroids and thus the separation, a slightly different approach was used.  A group of days that had fallen in the individual clusters and seemed to be good representatives for various solar regimes were used as centroids.  While this method seems to produce more separation than previous attempts, more than a third of the days had to be discarded. Whether this was due to the extreme variations in cloud/solar data or too many legitimate clusters for the number of days, it was decided that perhaps another approach should be taken. 

Next step is to see if K-Means analysis on means and standard deviation with each period taken as a separate data point, and using the results as limits for various cloud classes (Clear, Haze/Cirrus, scatter, broken and overcast) will produce better results. (C. Combs)

Since the launch of the NPP satellite in late November, work has begun on a number of fronts to quality control the data from the VIIRS sensor.  The imagery team has been checking to make sure there are no missing data granules, and has been producing imagery, such as the example below.  In addition, a tool was developed to plot the NPP predicted track on 3-hourly GOES-13 Infrared full-disk images.  Its utility is to allow researchers to easily identify when and if NPP passes over a meteorological feature of interest.  The cloud team is still waiting for the IR data to begin flowing, at which time the cloud retrieval validation work will begin. (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger)

Figure.  NPP VIIRS true-color/RGB composite image over Hurricane Kenneth in the east Pacific Ocean on 22 November 2011 at 2105 UTC.  VIIRS allows for true color imagery at 750 m resolution.

Figure.  GOES-13 full-disk 10.7 µm image from 18 November 2011 at 1745 UTC, with the NPP predicted track 90 minutes +/- the image overlaid.  These images are being created and archived in real time, and the most recent loop is available on the RAMMB NPP site.

As part of the GOES-R Proving Ground, synthetic ABI imagery is being created every morning based on output from the 4-km NSSL WRF-ARW model, and provided to forecasters for evaluation.  Recently, CIRA began simulating the 3.9 µm band to complement the other IR bands already being provided.  To do this, it was necessary to neglect the solar reflected component because that calculation is too computationally expensive to be performed in real time.  We can then form a different product between the 10.35 µm and 3.9 µm bands; this highlights low liquid water clouds and is often referred to as the “fog product” by forecasters.  Below is an example as the product appears in AWIPS.  The blue colors represent pixels that are likely low cloud, and this image is based on a 10-hour forecast.  Multiple Proving Ground participants from the NWS have specifically requested this product, and we have begun delivering it to several of them as of mid-December.  We are also sending the product to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and the Aviation Weather Center.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, H. Gosden)

Figure.  Synthetic 10.35-3.9 µm image based on the 10-hour forecast of the NSSL WRF-ARW as viewed in AWIPS.  The blue pixels represent likely low liquid water clouds.

Work continues on a GOES-R Risk Reduction Product whose goal is to improve 1-6 hour forecasts of convective initiation.  This is a collaborative effort between CIRA, CIMSS, UAH, NSSL, and CREST.  One of the first tasks is to choose a case study and generate GOES-R ABI data every 5 minutes (to match the time resolution of the ABI).  These runs are now complete and synthetic ABI data for all bands from 3.9 to 13.3 µm have been produced, in addition to the split window difference (10.35-12.3 µm).  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

We have been invited to give a talk in January 2012 on our true-color imagery. The invitation was extended by Amy Huff (Battelle), who visited CIRA last May. Our presentation will be given remotely to the Air Quality Proving Ground Workshop on January 12, 2012. (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and R. Brummer)

We have been invited to return to the IMET satellite training to present our GOES-R fire work.  Last March, CIRA trained IMET on the interpretation of synthetic GOES-R imagery that contains fire hot spots. Peter Roohr and Mike Johnson extended the invitation. Bonnie Reed has been working with Peter to find funding for this effort. (L. Grasso)

Collaboration continues with Yi Jin at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. She sent the last set of COAMPS output of a simulation of hurricane Igor. This set contains results using a new microphysics. Synthetic GOES-13 imagery at 6.48 and 10.7 µm was made and sent back. Our next step is to publish the results of our collaboration. (L. Grasso)

We began collaborating with Paul van Delst (NCEP/EMC) this quarter. He is helping us develop code that will read output from a numerical model and initialized specific variables that are needed by the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). We extended an invitation for him to visit and he has accepted. His visit may take place next January. (L. Grasso, Yoo-Jeong Noh, R. Brummer)

Jason Otkin (CIMSS) visited CIRA in December to share code related to the generation of synthetic imagery. This code computes number concentration and particle size for a given microphysical scheme is WRF-ARW. (L. Grasso, Yoo-Jeong Noh, R. Brummer)

D. Hillger and S. Kidder provided a tour of CIRA’s satellite imagery laboratory to a Lego Robotics Competition team from Trout Core-Knowledge Elementary School in Fort Collins. About ten children, ages 10-12, and two facilitators wanted to know about multi-spectral imaging, in order to design an imaging system for food safety issues. They visited other areas of campus as well to learn about food contamination, but we were able to show realtime multi-spectral images of the Earth as examples of visible and infrared imaging. (D. Hillger)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

9 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 22 teletraining signups, 73 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  122
Completions:  80
LMS totals from January 2005 through December 16, 2011:
Registrations:  5179
Completions: 3255
Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New training that debuted this quarter:

• “GOES-15 Becomes GOES-West” was offered as teletraining in early December 2011 by Ross Van Til (FDTB).  The teletraining highlighted the primary operationally significant changes in the transition of GOES-11 to GOES-15 as the GOES-West satellite.  There was a total of 54 participants in 3 teletraining sessions.

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• General applications of synthetic imagery for forecasting.
• Southwest Cutoff Low and Henry’s Rule, see note below under research (J. Braun). 
• The Analysis and Forecast of Severe Weather Associated with the Dryline (J. Braun).

Research:

• D. Bikos is lead author of a paper titled “Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High Resolution Model Evaluation.  The manuscript has been accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting.  The paper deals with use of the synthetic satellite imagery generated at CIRA in collaboration with NSSL, which is a CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground product.
• D. Bikos and J. Finch submitted a manuscript to the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.  The title of the manuscript is “Russian Tornado Outbreak: 9 June 1984” and has been accepted for publication.
• J. Braun and D. Bikos are collaborating with J. Dostalek in research regarding analysis of satellite imagery, the Southwest Cutoff Low in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  J. Braun is currently working on a paper to be submitted to the National Weather Association (NWA) that will compare and contrast and update the idea of the original paper introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.
• J.Braun collaborating with L. Grasso on combining HYSPLIT volcanic ash dispersion model output with WRF-NWP output to generate new visible synthetic imagery for the GOES-R proving ground.    

Collaboration:

J. Braun with D. Lindsey are initiating a collaborative effort between CIRA/GOES-R Proving Ground project and the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and their Aviation Weather Testbed to access the use of forecast synthetic imagery in NAWIPS in aviation weather forecasting.  Currently forecast synthetic products – 7.34um, 8.50um, and 10.35-3.9um fog product are being provided and utilized with additional real-time GOES-R products planned the future.

J. Braun and D. Bikos will be collaborating with many different training offices (including COMET) and local, regional and national operational offices of the National Weather Service. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/visit/blog/) – (J. Braun) Continue to build and administer the VISIT Blog – a web-log program intended to initiate increased communication between the operational, academic, and training worlds.  The blog averages about 300 views per week.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – December 16, 2011.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page.

Meetings and Calls

B. Connell and D. Bikos attended the COMET face to face satellite meeting in Boulder on November 3-4, 2011.

J. Braun, D. Bikos and B. Connell attended Internal GOES-R Proving Ground meeting on October 28, 2011 and participated in the broader All-Hands GOES-R Proving Ground conference call on November 7, 2011.

J. Braun, D. Bikos and B. Connell met with Chris Siewert from the University of Oklahoma/CIMSS to discuss GOES-R training related to the Storm Prediction Center Spring Experiment.

VISIT/SHyMet had conference calls on October 7, November 15, and December 12.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA participated in the COMET monthly satellite training calls.

Other

Developed and published a new CIRA GOES-R Proving Ground products web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/goes-r/proving_ground/cira_product_list/
The web-page was developed in collaboration with CIMSS so that GOES-R Proving Ground products will have a similar “look and feel” to users.  Highlights include links to relevant training, contacts, and user feedback.  The new “Usage” column provides a means to organize products into topic areas for a SHyMet GOES-R course. 

Kathy-Ann Caesar from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) in Barbados is conducting a Distance Learning Course on Aeronautical Meteorology Continuing Professional Development.  The course was designed to address the World Meteorological Organizations Aeronautical Meteorological Personnel Competence Standards.  As part of the 2nd Unit focusing on Satellite Meteorology, B. Connell presented a virtual VISITview session on the topic of GOES-R on Thursday, 17 November.  The existing VISIT and SHyMet modules: Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics and Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash Part 1 were also used in Unit 2.

SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting.  Consists of 7 core courses and 4 optional courses: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/severe_topics.asp

      Core courses:

• Mesoscale Analysis of Convective Weather Using RSO Imagery.
• Use of GOES RSO Imagery with other Remote Sensor Data for Diagnosing Severe Weather across the CONUS.
• GOES Imagery for Forecasting and Nowcasting Severe Weather.
• Water Vapor Imagery Analysis for Severe Weather Forecasting.
• Synthetic Imagery in Forecasting Severe Weather.
• Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations.
• Objective Satellite-Based Overshooting Top and Enhanced-V Anvil Thermal Couplet Signature Detection.

Optional courses:

• Monitoring Gulf Moisture Return.
• The UW Convective Initiation Product.
• Coastal Severe Convective Weather.
• Topographically Induced Convergence Zones and Severe Convective Weather.

SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

3  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. – Dec. 2011) for the SHyMet Severe Development Plan.  (41 total for March 2011 through Dec. 20, 2011).  2 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with 10 having completed since its inception.

SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Severe Thunderstorm individual class/session breakdown through Dec. 20, 2011 (for “online” training only).

27 registered for individual SHyMet Severe modules for this quarter

• 20 completed individual SHyMet Severe modules for this quarter
• 288 total registrations for individual SHyMet Severe modules (for the period March 3, 2011 – Dec. 20, 2011)

Tropical SHyMet training course.  Began August 2010.
Consists of 7 courses:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/tropical_intro.asp

• Basic Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics.
• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC
• An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC
• Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones : Dvorak Technique
• ASCAT Winds
• AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products

SHyMet Tropical Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

0  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. – Dec. 2011) for the SHyMet Tropical Development Plan (13 total for August 2010 through Dec. 20, 2011).  0 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  5 having completed since its inception.

SHyMet Tropical – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Tropical individual class/session breakdown through Dec. 20, 2011 (for “online” training only).

• 12 registered for individual SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
• 10 completed SHyMet Tropical modules for this quarter
• 330 total registrations for individual SHyMet Tropical modules (for the period August 2010 – December 2011)

SHyMet For Forecasters training course:  released January 2010.  It consists of 6 core courses and 3 optional courses.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_intro.asp :

This Development Plan includes:

1. Introduction to remote sensing for hydrology (NWS FDTB)
2. Interpreting Satellite Signatures (CIMSS)
3. Satellite Applications for Tropical Cyclones: Dvorak Technique (RAMMB/CIRA)
4. Aviation Hazards (CIRA)
5. Water vapor channels (CIMSS)
6. GOES-R 101 (CIRA)

Optional modules

7. Regional Satellite Cloud Composites from GOES (CIRA)
8. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 1)  (CIRA)
9. Volcanic Ash Hazards (Part 2) (CIRA)

SHyMet For Forecasters Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

6 NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct. – Dec. 2011) for the SHyMet Forecasters Course Development Plan (39 total for January 2010 through Dec. 20, 2011) 2 Participants have completed the course this quarter, with  16 having completed since its inception.

5 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA for the SHyMet Forecasters Course between January 2010 – Dec. 20, 2011.  There were no known completions this quarter.

SHyMet For Forecasters – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Forecasters individual class/session breakdown through Dec. 20, 2011 (for “online” training only).

• 69 registered for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
• 48 completed SHyMet Forecaster modules this quarter
• 548 total registrations for individual SHyMet Forecaster modules (for the period January 2010 – Dec. 20, 2011)

SHyMet Intern course (Development Plan)
The SHyMet Intern course continues to be offered online.  It consists of 9 modules
(http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/intern_intro.asp ). 

SHyMet Intern Metrics: CIRA/VISIT Registered:

2  NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA this quarter (Oct.  – Dec. 2011) for the SHyMet Intern Course – 295 total for April 2006 through Dec. 20, 2011.  5 Participants completed the course this quarter for a total of 143 registered completions.

0 Non-NOAA participants (International) have registered here at CIRA this quarter for the SHyMet Intern Course. (34 total for April 2006 – Dec. 20, 2011)  There were no completions this quarter.

SHyMet Intern – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:
Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet Intern individual class/session breakdown through
Dec. 20, 2011 (for “online” training only).

• 81 registered for individual SHyMet Intern  modules for this quarter
• 75 completed SHyMet Intern modules this quarter
• 4154 total registrations for individual SHyMet modules (for the period April 2006 – Dec. 20, 2011)

ALL SHYMET: Total Registered through LMS since inception of SHyMet: 5320

Total Completed in LMS Since Inception: 3609

Monthly International Weather Briefings
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (19 October, 22 November, and 22 December 2011) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ).   We used GoToWebinar for voice over the Internet.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, the International Desk at NCEP, CSU, as well as outside the continental U.S.: Antigua, Barbados, Belize, Cayman Islands, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Great Britain, Grenada, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panamá, Peru, Puerto Rico, St. Lucia, and Uruguay.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  Twelve countries participated in October, ten countries logged on in November, and seven countries participated in December.  The discussions were well attended with multiple participants at various sites.  During the October session, Mike Davison from the NCEP International Desk commented on first major surge of cold air into Central America and participants provided comments particularly about associated rainfall in their regions.  We also looked at GOES-12 sounder imagery from a case of blowing volcanic ash in Argentina, a significant event that closed the Buenos Aires airport for 12 hours on 16 October.   In December, Mike engaged the participants to draw on the imagery to demonstrate flow at various levels in the atmosphere.  One particular example was associated with convergent flow with resulting heavy rains in the area of Southern Caribbean Windward Islands and the North East Coast of South America  (Figure BC_DEC2012.JPG).  Participants provided comments about the local weather in their regions.  (B. Connell)

Figure:  Screen grab during the WMO VLab monthly virtual session of the Americas and Caribbean for December 2011.  The participants were invited to draw on the screen of a loop of visible imagery to show cloud/wind movement and resulting convective features.  

During the last three months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products
Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean can now be viewed at one location through RAMSDIS Online – look for the 2-week archive feature:  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). 
Look for information on our activities on the VLab/ Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/
(B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Hardware and data storage units have been procured and configured to support RAMMB NPP VIIRS and MIRS data ingest and research. (D. Molenar)

D. Hillger and T. Schmit completed the final report on the GOES-15 Science Test, and it was approved for release and published as NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 141.  A PDF of that report can be found via a link on the GOES-15 Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/  (Nearly simultaneously, on 9 December 2011, GOES-15 replaced GOES-11 as the operational GOES-West.)  Some of the lessons learned during the current GOES Science Tests will hopefully be implemented in the future checkout of GOES-R.  (D. Hillger)

Figure: Cover of NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 141: The GOES-15 Science Test: Imager and Sounder Radiance and Product Validations.

The first visible/reflective band images from VIIRS on NPP were taken on 21 November 2011 and were made available to the STAR JPSS Teams after several hours.  That NPP data has now been cleared for release by NASA.  Examples of true-color/RGB images created from VIIRS are available on the NPP VIIRS Imagery and Visualization Team page at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/, including the image below over Hurricane Kenneth in the east Pacific Ocean on 22 November 2011.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Figure:  NPP VIIRS true-color/RGB composite image over Hurricane Kenneth in the east Pacific Ocean on 22 November 2011 at 2105 UTC.  VIIRS allows for true color imagery at 750 m resolution.

The Web page developed to highlight some of the accomplishments of the NPP VIIRS Imagery and Visualization Team is available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/.  A new feature is an orbital track display of NPP sub-orbit paths overlaid on GOES full-disk imagery.  Another new web page section highlights significant events from Imagery Team members, notably NRL, CIMSS, and Aerospace, with images credited to the respective sources.  Imagery Team meetings continue weekly, with team members working to resolve data access and display issues.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

A tool was developed to plot the NPP predicted track on 3-hourly GOES-13 Infrared full-disk images.  Its utility is to allow researchers to easily identify when and if NPP passes over a meteorological feature of interest.  An archive will be kept at CIRA, and images are available in real-time here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/npp_track&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=20.  Below is an example from 18 November 2011 at 1745 UTC.  Only the track within 90 minutes +/- the image time is plotted.  (D. Lindsey, D. Hillger, S. Miller, and S. Kidder)

Figure:  GOES-13 full-disk 10.7 µm image from 18 November 2011 at 1745 UTC, with the NPP predicted track 90 minutes +/- the image overlaid.  These images are being created and archived in real time, and the most recent loop is available on the RAMMB NPP site. 
Sample pulls of VIIRS granules from GRAVITE continue, and McIDAS software updates are being applied as available to assist with simulated/proxy data analysis.  Feedback is being given to the McIDAS developers at SSEC/CIMSS as we encounter display issues, which is not un-common with an entirely new satellite and instrument.  We are also examining other sources for VIIRS data, so that we are not entirely dependent on GRAVITE for all our needs.  (D. Molenar, D. Hillger)
The first teleconference of the JPSS Imagery and Visualization Team was held on 11 October 2011, with 12 of 19 members participating.  Previous Team interactions were mostly via e-mail.  Team meetings will be held every week or two for the first several months during which VIIRS data and products will be distributed to the various JPSS Teams for checkout.  D. Hillger (NESDIS/STAR) and T. Kopp (Aerospace Inc.) co-lead the JPSS Imagery EDR Team.  (D. Hillger)

Traffic to the RAMMB web site continues to increase each year, with much of the traffic concentrated on several of our real-time data sites. All the following data are from December 1, 2010 to November 30, 2011, the “official” end of the Atlantic hurricane season. During that time, the site received over 4.4 million pageviews from over a quarter of a million individual visitors (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Detailed statistics for the entire RAMMB site from Dec 1, 2010 – Nov 30, 2011.

Detailed statistics for the entire RAMMB site (same as Figure 1, with definitions added for clarity):
Visits (total number of visits to the site): 906,417
Unique Visitors (total number of unique visitors to the site): 268,846
Pageviews (total number of pages viewed on the site): 4,420,763
Pages per Visit (average number of pages viewed per visit): 4.88
Average Time on Site (average time on site for each visitor): 00:04:35
Bounce Rate (percent of single-page visits): 13.03%
New Visitors (percent of total visitors who visited the site for the first time): 28.55%

The most popular section of the site continues to be RAMSDIS Online (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/), which shows satellite data products for various parts of the world. The most popular part of this site was the RMTC page that serves data for Central and South America (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp). This single page accounted for just over 10% of the pageviews for the entire server this past year.

The Tropical Cyclone Real-time site (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/) accounts for about 25% of the server traffic throughout the year, and gets significant spikes in traffic surrounding any tropical cyclone activity around the world. When viewed by country, the most traffic for this site continues to come from Hong Kong, followed by an almost equal amount from the US (see Figure 2). However, when viewed by sub-continent, the data show that Eastern, South-Eastern, and Western Asia together account for a full 60% of the site visits (see Figure 3). Another interesting note is that this past year was the first in which this site received over 1 million pageviews in a single year. (K. Micke)

Figure 2: Detailed statistics for the TC Real-time site from Dec 1, 2010 – Nov 30, 2011.

Figure 3: Location statistics for the TC Real-time site from Dec 1, 2010 – Nov 30, 2011 categorized by sub-continent.

Three new Linux systems have been procured and configured to replace outdated hardware.  The systems will be used for data ingest, display and archive.  The systems will also be used to investigate the use of virtual machines to utilize Windows and Linux applications on one system.  (D. Molenar)

The latest AWIP2 build (OB 11.9-0.1) has been installed on the RAMMB AWIPS2 machine.  (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Hillger, D.W., and T.J. Schmit, 2011: The GOES-15 Science Test: Imager and Sounder Radiance and Product Validations, NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 141, (November), 101 pp.

Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, C.R. Sampson and M.G. Seybold, 2011:  An automated, objective, multi-satellite platform tropical cyclone surface wind analysis. J. of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 50:10, 2149-2166. doi: 10.1175/2011JAMC2673.1

Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, P. J. Fitzpatrick, Y. Jin, and C.M. Hill, 2011: Simple Diagnosis of Tropical Cyclone Structure via Pressure Gradients. Weather and Forecasting. 26:6, 1020-1031. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00013.1

Tsai, H., K. Lu, N. Hsu, A. Chia, M. DeMaria, 2011: An Application of the Monte Carlo Method: Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities. Atmospheric Sciences, 39:3, 269-288.

• Nonrefereed

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Bikos, D., D.T. Lindsey, J. Otkin, J. Sieglaff, L.D. Grasso, C. Siewert, J. Correia Jr., M. Coniglio, R. Rabin, J. Kain, S. Dembek: 2012: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Real-Time High Resolution Model Evaluation. Weather and Forecasting.

DeMaria, M., R.T. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, D.A. Molenar, 2012: Tropical Cyclone Lightning and Rapid Intensity Change. Mon. Wea. Rev.

Miller, S., C. Schmidt, T. Schmit, D.W. Hillger, 2012: A Case for Natural Colour Imagery from Geostationary Satellites, and an Approximation for the GOES-R ABI. International Journal of Remote Sensing. Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2012:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

Setvák, M., M. Radová, P. Novák, D.T. Lindsey, L. Grasso, P. K. Wang, Shih-Hao Su, R. M. Rabin, J. Kerkmann, J. Šťástka, Z. Charvát, and H. Kyznarová, 2012: Convective storms with a cold-ring shaped cloud top feature. Atmos. Research.

Vigh, J.L, J.A. Knaff, W.H. Schubert, 2012:  A climatology of hurricane eye formation.  Mon. Wea. Rev.

• Nonrefereed

Connell, B.H., D. Bikos, J. Braun, A.S. Bachmeier, S. Lindstrom, A. Mostek, M. Davison, K.A. Caesar, V. Castro, L.Veeck, M. DeMaria, and T.J. Schmit, 2012: Satellite Training Activities: VISIT, SHyMet and WMO VLab Focus Group. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Csiszar, I., C.D. Barnet, R. Ferraro, L.E. Flynn, A.K. Heidinger, D.W. Hillger, A.Ignatov, J.Key, S.Kondragunta, I.Laszlo, and M.Wang, 2012: Overview of NPP/JPSS Environmental Data Products and Algorithm Development. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A. Schumacher, J.F. Dostalek and R. DeMaria, 2012: Applications of ATMS/CrIS Soundings to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Gurka, J.J., S. Goodman, T.J. Schmit, M. DeMaria, A. Mostek, C.W. Siewert, and B. Reed, 2012: The GOES-R Proving Ground: 2012 Update. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

Hillger, D.W., T.J. Kopp, 2012: First Images and Products From VIIRS on NPP. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Hillger, D.W., and T. Schmit, 2012: GOES Science Tests: Results for the Last Two of the Current GOES Series. 18th Conference on Satellite Meteorology, Oceanography and Climatology / First Joint AMS-Asia Satellite Meteorology Conference. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2012: Predicting where convective clouds will form with the GOES-R ABI. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Lindsey, D.T., T. Schmit, W. MacKenzie, L.D. Grasso, M. Gunshor, C. Jewett, 2012: The 10.35 micrometer band: A more appropriate window band for GOES-R ABI than 11.2?. AMS Eighth Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems. 22-26 January, New Orleans, LA.

Mecikalski, J.R., D.T. Lindsey, C.S. Velden, B.L. Vant-Hull, and R.M. Rabin, 2012: Convective Storm Forecasting 1-6 Hours Prior to Initiation 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

Molthan, A., K. Fuell, H. Oswald, and J.A. Knaff, 2012: Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

Reed, B., M. DeMaria, S.J. Goodman, J. Gurka, D. Reynolds, and C.W. Siewert, 2012: GOES-R Proving Ground – Demonstrating GOES-R Products in 2011 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

Reynolds, D., M. DeMaria, S.J. Goodman, M.W. Johnson, and B. Reed, 2012: Data Fusion Demonstrations At the GOES-R Proving Ground Using Satellites, in-Situ Data and Weather Forecast Models. 8th Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems, 22-26 January 2012, New Orleans, LA.

Submitted:

• Refereed 

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2012:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Lin, I-I, G.J. Goni, J.A. Knaff, C. Forbes, M.M. Ali, 2012: Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting and Its Impact on Storm Surge,  Natural Hazards.

Sitkowski, M., J. Kossin, C. Rozoff, and J.A. Knaff, 2012: Hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and the relict inner eyewall circulation.Mon. Wea. Rev.

Van Cleave, D., J.F. Dostalek, and T. Vonder Haar, 2012: The Dynamics and Snowfall Characteristics of Three Types of Extratropical Cyclone Comma Heads Categorized by Infrared Satellite Imagery. Weather and Forecasting.

• Nonrefereed 

Awards and Citations:

Presentation of Department of Commerce Silver Medal Award to Don Hillger (center) and Tim Schmit (second from left).  Others in photo are John Bryson, Secretary of Commerce (left), Katherine Sullivan, former NOAA Chief Scientist and astronaut, now a Commerce Assistant Secretary (second from right), and Rebecca Blank, Acting Deputy Secretary of Commerce

D. Hillger and T. Schmit attended the 63rd Annual Department of Commerce Honor Awards Program at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in downtown Washington DC on 13 December 2011.  Hillger and Schmit received a Silver Medal “For revolutionizing NOAA Science Tests for geostationary satellites, significantly reducing the likelihood of a single satellite configuration.”  The accompanying figure is a candid photo from the award presentation.  This event occurred shortly after GOES-15 replaced GOES-11 as the operational GOES-West (on 9 December), and the final report on the GOES-15 Science Test was approved for release and published as NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 141.  A PDF of that report can be found via a link on the GOES-15 Science Test page http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-p/  Some of the lessons learned during the current GOES Science Tests will hopefully be implemented in the future checkout of GOES-R. 

Presentations:

B. Connell, 2011: What drives online participation patterns for a focus group. 9th International Conference on Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet), 3-8 October, Pretoria, South Africa. 

A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, 2011: Another Look at Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Mini-Workshop, 16 November, CIRA.

M. Setvak, A. Sokol, D.T. Lindsey, K. Bedka, P. Wang, J. Stastka, and Z. Charvat, 2011: Remote Sensing of Convective Storms: A-Train Observations of Storm Tops, European Conference of Severe Storms, October, Palma de Mallorca, Spain. 

Posters:

Lindsey, D.T., 2011: Simulated Satellite Imagery: A New Tool for Real-Time Model Evaluation, National Weather Association (NWA) annual meeting and the GOES User’s Conference (GUC) Oct. 17-21, Birmingham, AL.

Lindsey, D.T., 2011: GOES-R Proving Ground Product Development at CIRA, National Weather Association (NWA) annual meeting and the GOES User’s Conference (GUC) Oct. 17-21, Birmingham, AL.

Notes:

CIRA was represented at the 9th International Conference on Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet) held 3-8 October 2011 in Pretoria, South Africa.  CALMet provides a forum to share experiences, expectations, and new ideas for applying emerging strategies for meteorology and hydrology in education and training.  The theme of the conference blended well with the work of the World Meteorological Organization’s Virtual Laboratory for Education and Training Matters in Satellite Meteorology (VLab), in which CIRA is also actively engaged.  There were participants from 6 continents. ” 

The attendees at the NWA meeting are largely National Weather Service forecasters, so this provided a fairly unique opportunity to chat with them in person to better understand their needs and concerns.  As a result of the poster presentations and associated conversations, a few new NWS offices are now interested in becoming involved with the Proving Ground.  (D. Lindsey)

P. Kaini, PhD, a hydraulic engineer from Golder Associates in Lakewood, CO, visited to discuss El Nino/Southern Oscillation forecasts produced by the ENSO-CLIPER model with J. Knaff.  Golder Associates plans to use SOI forecasts as inputs into a routinely updated five-year probabilistic stream flow estimate for an Indonesian river where mine tailings are routinely dumped.  The stream flow estimates will be used to engineer levies to protect adjacent regions. (J. Knaff) 

On December 21, Chris Lauer and Steve Hill from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center visited RAMMB to discuss lessons learned in AWIPS2 deployment and utilization. (D. Molenar)

Chris Siewert (CIMMS/SPC) visited CIRA December 1-2 to discuss GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the Storm Prediction Center.  While here, he gave a seminar entitled “The GOES-R Proving Ground at NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and Hazardous Weather Testbed.”   (D. Lindsey)

Jason Otkin (CIMSS) visited CIRA December 5-7 for collaboration on GOES-R and GOES-R Proving Ground Tasks.  Jason met with a number of CIRA scientists and collaborators and gave a seminar on his work.   Unfortunately the weather was rather cold – colder than Madison during his visit. (R. Brummer) 

FY12 GOES-R Risk Reduction visiting scientist funds have been approved for joint interactions with NASA’s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). Efforts will include additional plug-in development training for AWIPS2 and implementation of NAWIPS data in AWIPS2. (D. Molenar)

Virtual Meeting of the WMO Virtual Laboratory Management Group:  CIRA and the NWS Training Division participated in a virtual meeting of the VLMG on 25 October for the Virtual Laboratory for Training and Education in Satellite Meteorology (VLab) (http://vlab.wmo.int).  The VLab was established under the WMO Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) to promote effective use of satellite meteorology throughout the WMO member countries.  The VLab consists of members from major satellite operators across the globe collaborating with WMO centres of excellence.  The topics included feedback from the recent WMO CGMS meeting and the 9th International Conference on Creating Activities for Learning Meteorology (CALMet).  Each Center of Excellence (CoE) provided an outline of plans for training over the coming year as well and areas they would like help from the VLab.  CIRA presented a summary of the draft of guidelines for transition plans to support user readiness for new satellite generations. (B. Connell)

Introduction to GOES-R virtual session for Caribbean audience:  Kathy-Ann Caesar from the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) in Barbados is conducting a Distance Learning Course on Aeronautical Meteorology Continuing Professional Development.  The course was designed to address the World Meteorological Organizations Aeronautical Meteorological Personnel Competence Standards.  As part of the 2nd Unit focusing on Satellite Interpretation in the Tropics, B. Connell presented a virtual session on the topic of GOES-R on Thursday, 17 November.  CIMH and CIRA interact frequently through the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Education and Training in Satellite Meteorology.  (B. Connell)

EUMETSAT/WMO VLab Dust and Ash training week:   B. Connell presented the lecture “Volcanic eruptions:  Introduction to remote sensing techniques for fine ash and SO2 detection“ on 26 October as Session 5 of the EUMETSAT/WMO VLab Dust and Ash training week.  The session was recorded and is available from the EUMETCAL training site:  http://eumetsat.centra.com/