An investigation of reflective thunderstorm tops is currently underway. GOES channel 2 and 4 imagery can be used to calculate the shortwave albedo of clouds. Larger reflectivity values indicate smaller cloud-top ice crystals, which may be an indication of storm strength. A one-year climatological study of reflective storm tops was performed over the CONUS. The results are shown in Figures 1a and 1b. There appears to be a strong correlation between the presence of reflective tops and topography. The most robust maximum is found just downwind of the Rockies, and is centered in eastern Colorado.
Click on figures to enlarge.
Figure 1a: Percent of ice clouds (defined as channel 4 brightness temperatures colder than -40 °C) having shortwave albedo values greater than 5% from GOES-10, September 2003 through August 2004, for solar zenith angles less than 68°.
Figure 1b: Same as Figure 1a, except for GOES-12.
In order to quantify the ice crystal sizes necessary to reflect shortwave infrared solar radiation, a numerical model was used to simulate channel 2 brightness temperatures of theoretical thick ice clouds. Figure 2 shows some initial results. As the ice crystals decrease in size, the channel 2 brightness temperatures (which are highly correlated with shortwave albedo) increase.
Figure 2: Numerical model output showing the relationship between GOES 3.9 µm brightness temperature and ice crystal diameter in a theoretical thick ice cloud. Various curves correspond to differing solar zenith angles (phi), and the cyan curve is the 10.35 µm brightness temperature.
A manuscript entitled, “The Role of GOES Satellite Imagery in Tracking Low-Level Moisture Advection” by D. Bikos, J. Weaver, and J. Braun is currently undergoing internal review. When this review is complete, the paper will be submitted as a Picture of the Month feature in Weather and Forecasting. The manuscript will tentatively be ready for submission by early April 2005.
A general audience article entitled, “Central Colorado’s Severe Downslope Windstorms” by J. F. Weaver appears in the most recent issue of the Colorado Climate Center’s semi-annual magazine, Colorado Climate. A PDF version of the article can be found at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/KFIntranet/Publications/Comprehensive.HTML
All severe weather related, web-based VISIT teletraining sessions now have audio versions available (see VISIT category)
Updated code which converts GFS model data from grib format to a packed ASCII format was placed on a NESDIS computer. The packed ASCII format of the GFS data is used in subsequent programs for tropical cyclone research, and is one of the final steps in the transition of the experimental tropical cyclone genesis parameter to NESDIS operations.
A paper entitled “An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific,” discussing the development and operational performance (July 2003-October 2004) of the Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme, has been accepted for publication by Weather and Forecasting.
The paper entitled “Further Improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme” has been accepted for publication in Weather and Forecasting.
The final technical report discussing the development of a statistical-dynamical tropical cyclone intensity prediction tool for the JTWC Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere areas of responsibility was submitted to ONR. The pre-operational transition is complete and an evaluation is being performed at NRLMRY and JTWC. Transition to operations at JTWC is expected in spring 2005. As part of this project, a consensus/ensemble version that allows for the model to be evaluated using forecast fields from several models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, etc.) is being developed. The premise is that the consensus of these forecasts for the season will be more skillful than that of any given member. Forecast information (example for SH15 is shown in Figure 1) is being sent via the internet to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This version of the product will be run at NRLMRY for the remainder of the season in an operational manner.
Figure 1: Intensity forecasts for SH15P (Meena), a rapidly developing tropical cyclone located near American Samoa, valid 4 February at 18 UTC. Shown are the STIPS based consensus members; AFWA (AFS1), GFS (GFS1), NOGAPS(NGS1), UKMET (UKS1), WBAR (WBS1) along with other intensity forecasts, including JTWC.
A paper entitled “ Effects of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM” by M. Lonfat, S. Chen, J. Knaff, and F. Marks was revised and submitted Monthly Weather Review following the reviews from Journal of Atmospheric Science. The paper has been conditionally accepted for publication. The paper discusses the asymmetries of tropical cyclone rainfall with respect to motion and the 200 to 850 hPa vertical wind shear. Results show that the effects of storm motion and vertical wind shear combine to explain much of the storm-to-storm variability of rainfall asymmetries. It is hoped that the relationships will improve both forecasting and modeling of tropical cyclone related rainfall.
A talk discussing the possibilities of improving tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities was given at the DOD Tropical Cyclone Conference in February. The talk showed that the prospects for improving intensity forecasts in the JTWC area of responsibility are quite good based on results derived from several recent JHT sponsored projects (i.e. by using satellite data (IR and ocean heat content) as potential predictors). Using the Monte Carlo tropical cyclone wind speed probability code, the impacts of the anticipated improvements were assessed. These results suggest that by improving intensity forecasts alone results in an increased ability to warn based on wind speeds without increases in warning area, particularly beyond 48 hours. This is most important to the Navy who makes decisions to sortie ships well before 48 hours. Also found was that track improvements result in simply a decrease in warning area with no increase in the success of the forecasts.
A presentation discussing a satellite-only tropical cyclone wind analysis was given at the 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in Jacksonville, FL in March. The method uses a variational methodology to create a combined analysis of winds at flight level. The analysis makes use of an IR-based method developed at CIRA to estimate the near-core winds, surface winds from QuickSCAT, SSMI, AMSU-based non-linear balance winds at 850 and 700 mb, and Cloud drift winds below 500 mb. Figure 2 shows an example of this analysis for Hurricane Ivan on 9 September at 18 UTC. Work continues to fully automate the creation of such analyses for all tropical cyclones and to reduce these winds to the surface by next quarter. These analyses will be made available to operational centers for their assessment.
Figure 2: Flight-level (~700 mb) wind analysis, which utilizes IR-based winds, cloud drift winds, QuikSCAT and SSMI which were collected over a 12-h period and navigated to a storm relative framework at 18 UTC 9 September.
Loops of all 12 channels from Meteosat 2 nd Generation (MSG) for a tropical cyclone in the southwestern Indian Ocean (22 January 2005) were added to the GOES-R case study database. In addition, MODIS bands corresponding to GOES-R ABI channels were added. Imagery can be viewed at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/GOES-R_IPO/GOESR_IPO_case_study_database.html
J. Knaff met with J. Cline (NWS, Pacific Region), B. Ward (NWS, Pacific Region), and G. Cruz-Miller (NWS, MIC, Guam) about the potential transition of tropical cyclone products to operations. Of particular interest was the tropical cyclone formation product, which currently runs in the GOES-East footprint, and the possibility of such a product being developed for the GOES-9 or MTSAT footprint to support areas of the Pacific Region where tropical cyclogenesis often occurs (e.g., Guam, and Micronesia). As a result of this meeting, J. Cline sent a request to J. Heil (NWS) to make this a priority item.
A manuscript entitled “ Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data” by K. Mueller, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff and T. Vonder Haar was submitted to Monthly Weather Review. The paper details a method to create tropical cyclone inner core winds (r < 200km) from IR imagery. An example is shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: Plot of IR derived Total Wind Field (left panels) and Aircraft Measured Total Wind Field (right panels) for 24 hours in the lifetime of Hurricane Ivan in 2004.
J. Dostalek submitted an extended abstract for the proceedings of the First THORPEX International Science Symposium held in December 2004. The extended abstract is entitled “Analysis of Mid-latitude Cyclones and Fronts Using ATOVS Soundings” and is based on a poster given at the Symposium. Atmospheric profiles from the ATOVS (Advanced-TOVS [Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder]) data (which includes both infrared and microwave information) were used to analyze a mid-latitude cyclone that occurred over the eastern North Pacific on 19 December 2002. Temperature and moisture profiles from three NOAA-16 passes near 00:00 UTC were combined and gridded over the storm and its immediate environment. The hydrostatic equation was then integrated downwards from 100-hPa, giving the height of various pressure levels, as well as the surface pressure. The 100-hPa heights from the NOGAPS analysis were used as a boundary condition. Figure 1 shows the 700-mb potential temperature, q vectors, and q-vector divergence. The patterns of these fields match up well with the cloud structure as well as mid-latitude cyclone theory.
Click on figure to enlarge.
Figure 1. 700- hPa potential temperature (black, K), Q vectors (white), and Q vector divergence (white, x10 15 K m -2s -1, positive divergence dashed) at 00:00 UTC 19 December 2002, derived from ATOVS data .
In collaboration with CSU Professor Wayne Schubert, M. DeMaria and J. Dostalek submitted an International Polar Year pre-proposal to apply to polar lows the microwave intensity estimation technique which has been successfully implemented for tropical and mid-latitude cyclones. The technique is described briefly in this report under “Extra Tropical Cyclones.”
A general audience article, based on the article entitled, “Heavy Snowfall in the Midst of a Drought” by J. F. Weaver that appeared in the Fall 2004 issue of the CIRA Magazine is being revised for the Colorado Climate Magazine. The revision will include better graphics, and statistics which focus more on the climatology of the event.
Initial contacts are being made regarding the GOES-N Post-Launch Tests (PLT) that will take place after the launch of GOES-N, sometime in the first half of 2005. D. Hillger volunteered to coordinate the NESDIS activities (between CIRA, CIMSS, and Washington DC) for these science tests. His contact for setting up the PLT is Kevin Ludlum at GOES Scheduling.
A summary of RAMMB accomplishments was presented at the GOES-R Risk Reduction Annual Review in Silver Spring, MD, February 22 & 23.
Software has been written for use in McIDAS to copy user-selected bands of a multi-band AREA file and put them into a new multi-band AREA. (In McIDAS this capability is only available from MODIS Level 1b data in HDF format, not between standard McIDAS AREA files.) The purpose of this program is to select the equivalent GOES-R ABI bands from among all the MODIS bands and process the imagery as one multi-band AREA, rather than multiple single-band AREAs. Multi-band image rotation software has also been written to “turn over” ascending passes of polar data, so that the image appears with north on top. This program is used in lieu of re-mapping of the imagery which alters the data resolution and only operates on one band at a time. These tasks are being implemented on the Polar RAMSDIS operating at CIRA/RAMMT towards GOES-R Risk Reduction efforts.
McIDAS-compatible software for Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis has been upgraded to use McIDAS ADDE commands for reading and writing AREA files. This improvement was necessary for certain newer data sets, such as AIRS, and has been implemented for use with data from other satellites and instruments. This upgrade simplifies the implementation of the PCI technique that has been in use for 10 years, by elimination of heritage code that is no longer needed.
A case study of a polar low has been chosen for the GOES-R and NPOESS Risk Reduction database. The rare summertime event occurred on 15 August 2004 off the northwest coast of Norway. Visible and Infrared loops from AVHRR and a variety of MODIS bands from Terra and Aqua can be found on the GOES-R study database at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm /KFIntranet/GOES-R_IPO/GOESR_IPO_case_study_database.html
A fog event in California from 19 November 2004 was added to the GOES-R Case Study Database. In addition to GOES loops, MODIS images from each band corresponding to the GOES-R ABI channels are available. New simulated satellite loops for the 8 May 2003 Severe Weather case have also been added, including the GOES-R ABI 10.35 μm band, CAPE DPI, and Precipitable Water DPI. All of these can be found at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/KFIntranet/GOES-R_IPO/GOESR_IPO_case_study_database.html
New RAMS simulated images have been created and added to the new GOES-R web page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes_r/synthetic.asp.
Additions include CAPE and Precipitable Water DPI simulations for the Lake Effect Snow case, a simulated 3.9 μm image for the Severe Weather case, and a simulated IR loop for the Hurricane Lili case.
The program which creates the McIDAS AREA file from simulated brightness temperatures was improved and now performs a more accurate transformation from the RAMS model projection to GOES projection.
A manuscript entitled, “A simple GOES skin temperature product” by D. Hillger and S. Kidder has been accepted for publication by the National Weather Digest. Publication date is to be determined.
A McIDAS program was written to “fix” MODIS band-6 (1.6 μm) images from EOS-Aqua which suffer from bad detectors, resulting in blank lines of data, making the images of little value (Figure 1). (This problem does not exist for EOS-Terra band-6.) Bad lines in the band-6 images are fixed by copying the closest good line of data (either above or below), resulting in a reasonably good-looking image in spite of line duplication (Figure 2). The 1.6 μm band is of interest since it is one of the proposed GOES-R ABI bands. These tasks are being implemented on the Polar RAMSDIS operating at CIRA/RAMMT towards GOES-R Risk Reduction efforts.
Click on figures to enlarge.
Figure 1. EOS-Aqua MODIS band-6 (1.6 μm) image at 2 km (GOES-R ABI) resolution with bad lines of data from supposedly failed detectors, making the image virtually worthless.
Figure 2. Same as 1a, except with the bad lines “fixed” by duplicating the closest good line of data (either above or below), making a usable image for GOES-R ABI Risk Reduction work.
Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues on schedule. Products completed include monthly large sector composites for December 2004; January and February, 2005.
Processing of wind regime products is on schedule. Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for November and December 2004, and January 2005 have been completed. Combined monthly products have also been completed for these months and channels. January starts year eight of the combined products.
A teletraining session that will target the role of GOES satellite imagery in tracking low-level moisture advection is in preparation. Once the first draft is complete, several NWS offices have volunteered to review the material during a so-called “beta-test.” So far, forecast offices in Norman, OK and Boston, MA have agreed to participate
The manuscript entitled, “Microscale Aspects of Rainfall Patterns as Measured by a Local Volunteer Network” by N. Doesken, J. Weaver, and M. Osecky has been accepted by National Weather Digest contingent on a number of revisions. N. Doesken (Colorado Climate Center) continues to work on his portion of the reviewer suggestions.
Brazil Project:
Nothing New to Report This Quarter.
Japanese Interaction:
Nothing New to Report This Quarter.
MITCH Reconstruction Project:
Nothing New to Report This Quarter.
RMTC Project:
GOES-8 imageryfor December 2004 through February 2005 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers (RMTCs) in Costa Rica and Barbados. The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year. The monthly cloud frequency composites for December – February 1997-2005 by the 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica is presented in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Monthly cloud frequency composites for December -February 1997-2005 by the 10.7 μm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.
A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 μm imagery for December – February 1998 – 2005 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 μm imagery for December – February of 1998 – 2005 for Barbados
The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.
The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados)
A new X-Windows server, Mi/X, was tested with McIDAS and Services for Unix software. The Mi/X software revealed new quirks from the previously used X-Windows software, but proved useful for training purposes. Furthermore, 20 copies of the software were purchased for $25.00 each which results in a savings of over $4,300 compared with the previously used software.
A set of twenty notebook PC’s procured last quarter were configured with McIDAS-X 2004, SFU Unix Emulator, Mi/X X-Windows Server, Symantec Anti-Virus software, in preparation for the WMO Training in Costa Rica.
Sixteen notebook PC’s were boxed and shipped to San Jose, Costa Rica on February 10, 2005 with the GeoLogistics Corporation.
Representatives from the Department of Energy (DOE) attended the “Lightning Meteorology” (Parts I and II) teletraining sessions taught last week. They were guests of the Amarillo, Texas NWS office. A student evaluation of the material was received this week. The evaluation included the comment, “ DOE folks are trying to formulate a procedure using radar/satellite data and other inputs to anticipate the initial onset/occurrence of lightning in the vicinity of their plant for worker safety. This presentation gave them an understanding of the type of data they need to have available for this purpose. This was much needed training for their program.”
The week of February 14th, J. Knaff gave a half-hour presentation entitled “Potential for improving tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities” at the DOD Tropical Cyclone Conference. The meeting gave an overview of the very active western North Pacific Typhoon season and offered ideas for possible research topics. The most prevalent problems were associated with the intensity forecasts and the uncertainty involved in individual forecasts, keeping in mind that the Navy (Air Force) must start making preparations 96 (48) hours before tropical storm conditions begin. The presentation was well received as it discussed the most cost effective and well-leveraged ways to improve the uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone wind speed prediction; in this case intensity and wind radii forecast improvements. However, DOD funding for such developments remains uncertain.
While in Honolulu, J. Knaff met with J. Cline (NWS, Pacific Region), B. Ward (NWS, Pacific Region), and G. Cruz-Miller (NWS, MIC, Guam) about the potential transition of tropical cyclone products to operations. Of particular interest was the tropical cyclone formation product, which currently runs in the GOES-East footprint, and the possibility of such a product being developed for the GOES-9 or MTSAT footprint to support areas of the Pacific Region where tropical cyclogenesis often occurs (e.g., Guam, and Micronesia). J. Cline has agreed to send a request to J. Heil (NWS) and ask to make this a priority item.
Several problems impacting Linux McIDAS workstation performance were resolved.
Jeff Braun was hired by CIRA to participate in VISIT training. Jeff has six years of experience with the National Weather Service and will be assisting with the development and delivery of satellite training. This position became available when Dan Lindsey was hired as a NOAA RAMM Branch employee.
Procurement of FY05 hardware utilizing both CIRA and ORA funds is complete.
The VISIT web pages have been moved to a new system, the new URL of the VISIT homepage is now:
The Satellite Data Servers in NESDIS are being updated, and to reflect the changes, the Satellite Data ingest/retrieval processes were modified on the RAMSDIS systems. The changes were implemented on the HRD, TAE, and CIRA RAMSDIS systems. The remaining modifications were implemented at University of Santa Clara, Forecast Office at Barbados, and at IBAMA in Brasilia, Brazil to complete this server change.
Development continues on a teletraining session that will target the role of GOES satellite imagery in tracking low-level moisture advection. This session comes as a result of the Picture of the Quarter paper mention under the Severe Weather section. We are still trying to find cases that illustrate low-level moisture return across the east central, southeastern, and eastern portions of the CONUS.
During this quarter 34 VISIT teletraining sessions were delivered, 565 students participated.
New VISIT teletraining that debuted this quarter: Predicting Supercell Motion in Operations (taught by Matt Bunkers, NWS Rapid City, SD):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/bunkers.html
The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 21, 2004. For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html
IST PDS/VISIT Teletraining Sessions Summary
April 1999 through March 21, 2005
A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999. As of March 21, 2005 the total is 14,720 certificates. A training certificate of completion is sent out to participants who have returned evaluations. The following graph shows the total number of certificates issued since we started this in April 1999. As of March 21, 2005 the total is 14,720 certificates.
Web versions of most VISIT sessions can be found at the following addresses:
Boundary Detection: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp
CONUS Cloud to Ground Lightning Climatology: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/lightning/title.asp
Convective Initiation by Low-Level Boundaries: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/visit/lessons/bndry2/viewmaster.html
Cyclogenesis: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/cyclo/title.asp
Detecting Boundaries: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/boundaries1/title.asp
Elevated Mesoscale Ascent: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ascent/title.asp
GOES enhancements/color tables in AWIPS: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/istpds/awips/awips_1.html
Lake-effect snow I (basic): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les/title.asp
Lake-effect snow II (intermediate/advanced): http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/les2/title.asp
Lightning Meteorology I: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet1/01_title.asp
Lightning Meteorology II: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ltgmet2/title.asp
Mesoscale Analyses and Techniques: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/mesoana/title.asp
Mesoscale Anal. of Conv. Wx. using GOES RSO: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/newrso/title.asp
NDIC: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ndic/title.asp
Rapid Scan Operations: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/rso/title.asp
Tropical Satellite Imagery and Products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/tropical/title.asp
QuikSCAT: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/qscat/title.asp
Pre-recorded audio versions of a number of VISIT training sessions are now available on the web. The downloadable files can be found by going to the list of teletraining sessions at:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/visit/ts.html
then selecting from titles that have small, microphone-shaped icons preceding the listing. Each link leads to a page that provides instructions for various aspects of participation in VISIT training, including instructions for downloading audio versions.
On March 7, J. Weaver gave a talk to 135 high school students who are participating in the local PaCE (Professional and Career Experience) program. The topic of the talk was, “My Career in Meteorology and How I Got There.”
Two VISITview exercises using GOES satellite imagery from CIRA and voice via Yahoo messenger were coordinated by the WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
The first session included participants from the US: CIRA and COMET in Colorado, CIMSS in Wisconsin and the International Desk at NCEP in Washington, DC; as well as outside the US: Antigua, Barbados, Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Trinidad. The second session, conducted in March, coincided with the WMO Regional Training Seminar on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications. The session introduced the participants at the training (from Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Colombia, Netherland Antilles, Venezuela, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina) to the capabilities of distance related training and was well received by all.
Much effort went into preparations for participation in the WMO sponsored Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RA III and RA IV held for Spanish speaking countries in Costa Rica March 7-18, 2005. The lectures covered many aspects of image use and interpretation and included lecturers from the University of Costa Rica (UCR), CIRA/RAMM, WMO, National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil, the University of Buenos Aires, and a distance lecturer from EUMETSAT.
CIRA/RAMM personal provided lectures/laboratories on the following topics: interpretation of GOES and POES imagery and products, products from meteorological sounders, hyper-spectral imagery, identifying mesoscale weather features in satellite imagery, tropical weather systems, and volcanic ash and fire detection. There were thirteen participants from the Caribbean, Central America, and South America ( Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Netherlands Antilles, Peru, and Venezuela). Through the efforts of Dr. Jame s Purdom, the students received electronic notebooks, donated by NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) to WMO in the context of its Space Program. The notebooks will allow trainers to train others upon their return. The computers contain all the training materials, application software and data presented in the two-week training event. The training was a success due to the preparations and hospitality provided by UCR, the support of the WMO, CIRA, and NOAA/NESDIS, and the enthusiasm of the participants. Click on figures to enlarge.
Figure 11. Participants and presenters attending the training in Costa Rica March 7 – 18, 2005.
Figure 12. Dr. Vilma Castro lecturing on the first day.
Figure 13. Ricardo Valenti from Argentina pointing out focus areas at the National Meteorological Service in Argentina.
Received:
J. Knaff attended a class entitled “Communication Kit for Supervisors: Interpersonal Communication Skills” offered by the Office of Training and Development at Colorado State University. This was module 1 of 4.
D. Watson and J. Dostalek participated in a three-day course, March 16-18, entitled “Introduction to IDL” held at Research Systems Inc. (the developer of IDL) in Boulder, CO.
Published:
DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, K.J. Mueller, and R.M. Zehr, 2005: Improvements in Deterministic and Probabilistic Tropical Cyclone Wind Predictions: A Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Knaff, J.A., M. DeMaria R.M. Zehr, and K.J. Mueller, 2005: Development of a Multi-platform Satellite Tropical Cyclone Wind Analysis System. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Knaff, J.A., and C. Sampson, 2005: Development of STIPS for the Southern Hemisphere and Indian Ocean. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Lindsey, D.T., and M.J. Bunkers, 2005: Observations of a severe left-moving supercell on 4 May 2003. Wea. and Forecasting, 20, 15-22.
Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, and L. Shay, 2005: Results from the Incorporation of Ocean Heat Content and GOES Data in the Operational Ships Model During the 2004 Hurricane Season. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Mueller, K.J., R.M. Zehr, M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2005: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure From Infrared Satellite Data. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Weaver, J.F., 2002: Central Colorado’s Severe Downslope Windstorms. Colorado Climate Magazine, 3 (4), Colorado Climate Center, Ft. Collins, CO 1-3.
Zehr, R.M., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, and K.J. Mueller, 2005: NOAA’s Next-Generation Polar and Geostationary Satellites – Hurricane Applications. 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 7-11 March, Jacksonville, FL.
Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, M. DeMaria, and L.D. Grasso, 2005: Critical issues of ensemble data assimilation in application to GOES-R risk reduction program. 9th Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS). 10-14 January, San Diego, CA.
DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L.K. Shay, J.A. Knaff, J. Kaplan, 2005: Further Improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. and Forecasting.
Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2005: Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.
Ferraro, R.R., Pellegrino, M.Turk, Chen, Qui, R.J., R.J. Kuligowski, S.J. Kusselson, Irving, S.Q. Kidder, J.A. Knaff, 2005: The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 2: Validation. Weather and Forecasting.
Hillger, D., S.Q. Kidder, 2005: A simple GOES skin temperature product. National Weather Digest.
Kidder, S.Q., S.J. Kusselson, J.A. Knaff, R.R. Ferraro, R.J. Kuligowski, M. Turk, 2005: The Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) Technique. Part 1: Description and Examples. Weather and Forecasting.
Knaff, J.A., C.R. Sampson, and M. DeMaria, 2005: An Operational Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific. Wea. and Forecasting.
Lonfat, M., S.S. Chen, J.A. Knaff, F.D. Marks, Jr., 2005: Effects of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Storm Motion on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Asymmetries Deduced from TRMM. J. of Atmospheric Sciences.
Bessho, K., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis. Journal of Applied Meteorology.
DeMaria, J., J.A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2005: On the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Winds Crossing Narrow Landmasses. J. of Applied Meteorology.
Mueller, K.J., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, T.H. Vonder Haar:, 2005: Objective Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Wind Structure from Infrared Satellite Data. Weather and Forecasting.
Tuleya, R.E., M. DeMaria, and R.J. Kuligowski, 2005: Evaluation of GFDL Model Rainfall Forecasts for U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storms. Weather and Forecasting.
D. Hillger reviewed a manuscript on long-term climatological variations in the tropospheric water vapor over Saudi Arabia for Monthly Weather Review.
| Team Members | Destination | Purpose | Funding | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services (OFCM) Meeting | BASE | Feb 2-4 |
| J. Knaff | Honolulu, HI | Department of Defense Tropical Cyclone Conference | USWRP | Feb 14-18 |
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | GOES-R Review | GIMPAP | Feb 21-25 |
| B. Connell | San Jose, Costa Rica | WMO/RMTC Training Course | GIMPAP | Mar 5 – 17 |
| M. DeMaria | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | GIMPAP | Mar 6 – 11 |
| R. Zehr | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | GIMPAP | Mar 6 – 11 |
| J. Knaff | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | JHT | Mar 6 – 10 |
| K. Mueller | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | Ground Sys | Mar 6 – 10 |
L. Grasso gave a CIRA seminar at on March 25 entitled “Synthetic GOESR-ABI/HES Imagery.”
Meetings, Conferences, Workshops:
| Travelers | Location | Meeting, Conference, Workshop | Funding | Dates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services (OFCM) Meeting | BASE | Feb 2-4 |
| J. Knaff | Honolulu, HI | Department of Defense Tropical Cyclone Conference | USWRP | Feb 14-18 |
| M. DeMaria | Washington, DC | GOES-R Review | GIMPAP | Feb 21-25 |
| B. Connell | San Jose, Costa Rica | WMO/RMTC Training Course | GIMPAP | Mar 5 – 17 |
| M. DeMaria | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | GIMPAP | Mar 6 – 11 |
| R. Zehr | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | GIMPAP | Mar 6 – 11 |
| J. Knaff | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | JHT | Mar 6 – 10 |
| K. Mueller | Jacksonville, FL | 59th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference | Ground Sys | Mar 6 – 10 |
| J. Dostalek | Boulder, CO | RSI IDL Class | GIMPAP | Mar 16 – 18 |
| D. Watson | Boulder, CO | RSI IDL Class | PSDI | Mar 16 – 18 |
AMS: American Meteorological Society
AMSU: Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
AWIPS: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
CAMEX: Convection and Moisture Experiment
CG: Cloud to Ground
CIMSS: Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
CIRA: Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
COMET: Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology, Education, and Training
CONUS: Continental U.S.
CoRP: Cooperative Research Programs
CSU: Colorado State University
EUMETSAT: European Meteorological Satellite
FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency
FTP: File Transfer Protocol
GIMPAP: Goes I-M Product Assurance Plan
GOES: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
HRD: Hurricane Research Division
IR: Infrared
JHT: Joint Hurricane Transition
LAPS: Local Analysis and Prediction System
LES: Lake-Effect Snow
McIDAS: Man Computer Interactive Data Access System
MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR: National Center for Atmospheric Research
NDIC: Natural Disaster Information Cards
NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NIDS: NEXRAD Information Dissemination Service
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NWS: National Weather Service
NWSFO: National Weather Service Forecast Office
OM: Office of Meteorology
ORA: Office of Research and Applications
PACJET: Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
POP: Product Oversight Panel
RAMMT: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team
RAMS: Regional Atmospheric Modeling System
RAMSDIS: Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Team Advanced Meteorological Satellite
Demonstration and Interpretation System
RMTC: Regional Meteorological Training Center
ROL: RAMSDIS Online
SAB: Satellite Applications Branch
SHIPS: Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme
STIPS: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme
SOCC: Satellite Operations Control Center
SOO: Science Operations Officer
SRSO/RSO: Super Rapid Scan Operation/Rapid Scan Operation
STAR: Office of Satellite Research and Development
STEPS: Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Preciptation Study
TPC: Tropical Prediction Center
USWRP: United States Weather Research Program
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated
VISIT: Virtual Institute for Satellite Integration Training
WMO: World Meteorological Organization
WV: Water Vapor