Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

A new parameterization for estimating SST cooling beneath a tropical cyclone’s inner core has been developed.   In this parameterization, SST cooling is dependent on storm intensity, storm translational speed, and ocean heat content.  These values were computed from reruns of the HWRF model for Atlantic tropical cyclones from 2004-2006, and a multiple regression analysis was used to determine a simple linear relationship.  Next, this parameterization will be tested in the SHIPS model against the current SST cooling relationship to determine whether or not it provides any improvement to the SHIPS intensity forecasts. (A. Schumacher)

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product has been verified for the 2007 season.  Analysis of Brier Skill Scores and Relative Operating Characteristic Skill Scores indicate that the TCFP outperformed climatology alone in all three basins covered by the extended domain, which includes the Atlantic, E. Pacific and W. Pacific basins.  Subjective analysis of the sub-basin time series plots indicates that the TCFP product is showing peaks of enhanced TC formation probability within the 24-hour prior to TC formation the majority of the time. (A. Schumacher)

2007 time series plots of cumulative TC formation probability over 2 sub-basins in the western N. Pacific basin.  The black line represents climatological formation probability, the blue line represents the TCFP product estimated formation probability, and the open red circles represent all times 24-hour prior to the formation of a TC.

Assistance has been provided to NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch members in the moving of the operational TCFP product to the NSOF facility.  The TCFP product is now running temporarily on a linux system (gp60) at NSOF and work continues to get the product and its graphical displays running properly on the AIX machine (satepsdev3) that will run the product from now on. (A. Schumacher, J. Knaff, D. Molenar)

A global water vapor imagery archive has been identified for use in planned improvements to the TCFP product.  This archive is part of the NOAA HURSAT project, and will be provided by Ken Knapp.  This archive consists of 3-hourly, near-global water vapor images created from various geostationary satellites.  The domain extends from 60 N to 60 S and from 0 to 360 E, and the data has already been inter-calibrated to account for differences between the satellites.  Ken Knapp has provided this data for 2004 and expects the full dataset, which will extend from 1998-2006, to be available early this summer. (A. Schumacher)

For several years, GFS data have been ingested and converted from grib1 format to a packed ASCII format for use in tropical research.  In January, the real-time GFS data switched from grib1 to grib2 format.  The software which performs the ingest was modified to process the new format, and the transition to grib2 went smoothly.  (J. Dostalek)

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its affect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from an omega equation valid over the entire sphere.  The input will come from the GFS model.  The development of the software used to compute the vertical motion is underway.  (J. Dostalek)

Rapid intensification is being reexamined using the IR imagery.  Twenty-five extremely rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone cases with IR imagery have been collected 1987-2006.  The average starting intensity of these cases is ~60 kt and after 24 hours the final intensity is ~110 kt. Techniques to remap and spatially filter the brightness temperatures to a storm motion relative, cylindrical coordinate system have been developed.  The cylindrical data has also been interpolated to a half-hourly temporal resolution.  Two dataset were created, one with and one without the axisymmetric mean brightness temperatures removed from each image.  Finally, the 2-d time series is then temporally smoothed using a binomial filter and a complex principle component analysis is applied.  (J. Knaff)

Results suggest that the first five complex empirical orthogonal functions are related to 1) the mean, 2) cyclonic outflow, 3) pulsing central convection, 4) anticyclonic outflow and 5) rotating core convection/cloud free moat formation.     The spatial amplitudes and phases are shown in Figure 1.  Wind barbs give the phase direction and relative magnitude (note the change in sign produces erroneous wind barbs).  Similar results were found with the dataset with the azimuthal mean brightness temperatures removed, but nearly symmetric features like CEOF 3 were difficult to interpret.

Figure 1:  Spatial Amplitudes (shaded) temporal phase (contoured), and phase speed/direction (wind barbs) of the first three complex principle components of the azimuthal brightness temperatures found in 25 rapidly transitioning tropical cyclones.  A 48-hour period is used for each storm encompassing 24 hours prior and the 24-hour during these rapid transitions.  The intensity at the beginning (end) of these rapid transitions was 60 (108) kt. 

Composite means of the amplitude and phases of these patterns from the 25 rapidly intensifying cases suggest that CEOF2, CEOF3, and CEOF5 may be helpful for predicting rapid intensification.  These results form the basis for a conceptual model of how the spatial patterns of IR brightness temperatures evolve during rapid intensification.  These results will be presented next quarter at the 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology.  (J. Knaff)

Vertical wind shear (VWS) is an important factor in determining the potential for tropical cyclone intensity change that is often estimated using analyses and forecasts from numerical prediction (NWP) models.   While this approach has been shown to be rather successful, it is not clear if the NWP models capture all the variability of VWS.  AMSU-derived wind fields offer an independent dataset from which VWS can be calculated.  Such calculations are possible using balanced winds calculated from AMSU-derived height fields, which are already an operational product.  Such independent information may also be useful to tropical cyclone forecasters.  To investigate the reliability and usefulness of AMSU-based VWS calculations, the magnitude of the 200 minus 850 hPa VWS has been calculated using both AMSU- and NCEP analysis- based wind fields in a storm-centered circular area within 600 km of the storm.   These VWS calculations are then compared to vertical wind shear from the NCEP analyses (Figure 3).  Results show that there is a good agreement between VWS values calculated using AMSU-derived wind and those calculated from the NCEP operational analyses.  The relationship is shown below for all tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic 2004-2007.   Further evaluation results will be presented by R. Zehr at the AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. (J. Knaff, R. Zehr)

Figure 3:  Scatter diagram comparing the magnitude of the 200 to 850 hPa vertical wind shear calculated using the NCEP operational analyses and the 2-D non-linear balance winds produced by the NOAA operational AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm.  The comparison, which indicates that the AMSU-based vertical winds shear explains 70% of the NCEP VWS variance, includes data from all tropical cyclones that occurred in the North Atlantic during 2004-2007.

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature.  Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins.  This study revisits this topic in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins.   The timing of lifetime maximum intensity associated with recurving tropical cyclones is examined using best track datasets from the United States’ Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center, Miami during the period 1980-2006.   Results reveal that tropical cyclones are less likely to experience peak intensity within ± 12h and ±24h of recurvature than has been previously reported in the western North Pacific.  It is also shown that tropical cyclones that become most intense (i.e., intensities greater than 52 ms-1) have a greater tendency to reach peak intensity before recurvature than weaker storms save for in the South Pacific where the most intense storms have a greater probability of reaching their maximum intensity following recurvature.  While it appears that weak tropical cyclones (i.e., peak intensities less than 33 ms-1) often reach peak intensity prior to or close to recurvature in all tropical cyclone basins as others have reported, the cumulative distributions of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature can be quite different for other intensity ranges suggesting that a universal relationship between peak intensity and time of recurvature does not exist.   This study was submitted to the International Journal of Climatology. (J. Knaff)

The 2003-2006 lightning proxy database was extended by adding the data for 2007 from the World Wide Lightning Locator Network (WWLLN).  Figure 1 below shows the daily strike locations from 4 September 2007 when Hurricane Felix was in the western Caribbean.   These data are used as a proxy for the future GOES-R lightning mapper datastream. (M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria)

Figure 1. Lightning strikes from 4 September 2007 from the ground-based WWLLN. The center of hurricane Felix is indicated by the tropical cyclone symbol in the western Caribbean.

A real-time source of simulated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data for infrared channels has been developed using an algorithm obtained from the GOES-R Algorithm Working Group (AWG).  The ABI infrared channels are approximated using Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data obtained from the NESDIS server. The simulated ABI data, Channels 7 – 16, are then made available via a McIDAS server that facilitates the development of case studies; allowing the researcher to obtain the data in smaller areas over long  periods of time as interesting events occur.  These are now available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/simulated_abi/. (J. Knaff, D. Hillger)

Simulations of GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data and imagery for Hurricane Wilma from 2005 are being generated at ABI spatial (2 km) and temporal (5 min) resolution.  Examples of two ABI bands (longwave and shortwave window bands) for one specific time are provided in Figure 2.  (D. Hillger, M. Sengupta, L. Grasso, R. Brummer)

Figure 2: GOES-R ABI simulations for Hurricane Wilma from 2005 October 19: (Top) 10.35 μm (longwave window); (Bottom) 3.9 μm (shortwave window).  Both images use the same color table for easier comparison.

Infrared imagery (4km Mercator) from the RAMMB/CIRA tropical cyclone IR image archive of Hurricanes Charlie, Ivan,  Frances, Wilma, Katrina, and Dennis, and the FORTRAN90 data module were provided to Prof. K. Walsh (Univ. Melbourne, AU) for  his studies.  Prof. Walsh is working on the validation of IR-based methods used to estimate the radius of maximum winds (RMW) in tropical cyclones.  Recent publications by RAMM/CIRA and CIMSS discussing other methods of RMW estimation were also provided to aid his studies. (J. Knaff)

A one-day tropical cyclone workshop involving RAMMB and CIRA/CSU tropical cyclone researchers and NCAR scientists was held at the NCAR Foothills Lab in Boulder, CO.  The goal of this workshop was to foster better communication and joint collaborations on tropical cyclone research between RAMMB/CSU Atmospheric Science and NCAR.  Several researchers from CIRA and RAMMB gave informal presentations on tropical cyclone research and participated in collaborative discussions during the workshop. (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, A. Schumacher, R. Zehr)

AMSU-based tropical cyclone products were provided to P. Harr (NPS, Monterey) for Typhoon Man-Yi (wp042007).  Man-Yi experienced a transition from a tropical cyclone to an extra-tropical cyclone on 12-14 July 2007.  P. Harr is using these AMSU products to diagnose the structural changes occurring during extra-tropical transition.   This is one of the key components of the THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) field experiment, slated for this coming summer. (J. Knaff)

The ingest and processing code used to estimated tropical cyclone intensity and structure from AMSU-A was provided to P. Harr (Naval Postgraduate School) for his work on studying the transformation of tropical cyclones to extratropical cyclones.  Past data exchanges have show that the AMSU retrievals and derived profiles of wind temperature and height are useful for the study of the structural evolution that occurs during this process.  Pat is one of the key organizers of the upcoming THORPEX Pacific-Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) field experiment. (J. Knaff)

The next generation Statistical Typhoon Prediction Scheme (STIPS) developmental dataset was provided to J. Kossin (CIMSS).   The new STIPS developmental dataset includes storm relative information from infrared imagery (much of which came from J. Kossin) and oceanic heat content provided by G. Goni AOML.  This new dataset is the basis for a new model that is being developed for testing at JTWC.  J. Kossin plans use the dataset to extend his secondary eyewall formation index work into the western North Pacific tropical cyclone basin. (J. Knaff)

Additional information about applying the Knaff & Zehr tropical cyclone wind-pressure relationship was provided to G. Cooke a savanna ecologist at CSIRO.

In a multi-agency effort investigating the use of satellites to provide wind information over the Polar regions, the RAMMB contribution is to use temperature profiles derived from AMSU-A radiances, along with the assumption of hydrostatic and dynamic balance (geostrophic, linear, and nonlinear), to estimate the wind field.  Figures 1 and 2 show the wind speed bias and vector root mean square error (with respect to collocated radiosondes) as a function of pressure for a winter and a summer dataset, respectively.  For the entire depth of the atmosphere the three balances had biases between -0.7 and -1.0 m s-1 and root mean square errors between 6 and 7 m s-1.  In an attempt to improve the accuracy of these wind retrievals, the addition of an estimate of the irrotational wind will be implemented.  Code is being developed which will solve the linear balance omega equation.  Once omega is calculated, the velocity potential χ can be computed from .  From there the irrotational component of the wind is found from .

Figure 1.  Wind speed bias and vector RMSE between the winds derived using the AMSU radiances and collocated radiosondes for the winter 2004 dataset.  Solid lines are the bias and dashed lines are the RMSE, with the exception of the solid blue line, which is the mean radisonde-derived wind speed.  The colors correspond to the different balance approximations.  The number of comparisons at each level is given on the right hand side of the figure.

Figure. 2.  Same as Figure 1, but for the summer 2007 dataset.

Henry’s Rule states that a stationary trough over the southwestern U.S. will begin to lift out when an upstream shortwave travels to 2200 km from the stationary trough.  Nine cases are currently being analyzed, not only to assess the usefulness of the water vapor imagery in tracking the position of the upstream shortwave relative to the stationary low, but also to see if the behavior of the stationary low itself, as seen in satellite imagery, gives any indication that it will begin to lift out.  Additional cases are being collected as well.  An example of Henry’s rule is shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3.  An example of Henry’s rule.  Water vapor image from 2200 UTC 19 January 2007 just before the stationary low began to lift out.  The locations of the stationary low, the “kicker” and the 2200 km radius from the stationary low are depicted.

As part of the project to develop a quantitative measure of the central surface pressure of midlatitude cyclones over the eastern Pacific Ocean from satellite imagery, the collection of GOES 10.7 μm infrared and 6.7 μm water vapor imagery has been completed for the winter season 2006-2007 and analysis begun.  Imagery from the winter season 2007-2008 is currently being collected. (J. Dostalek)

The relationship between cloud morphology as seen in GOES 10.7 μm imagery and snowfall patterns over the central United States is being investigated.  So far three cases have been selected, the data for them obtained, and analysis begun.  Additional cases will also be added to the study.  An issue arose concerning problems with reading the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) files in McIDAS.  The McIDAS Users’ Group was contacted and a solution was suggested and will be implemented next quarter.  The mean sea level pressure from the NARR data is used to track the surface low center of the systems.  (J. Dostalek)

A proposal entitled “Investigation of the Mechanisms for Heavy Precipitation/Flooding from Landfalling Extratropical Cyclones Using Satellite Observations and Atmospheric Models” was submitted to NASA.  The proposed research seeks to understand processes that control the intensification of Pacific extratropical cyclones and the generation of heavy precipitation when they move onto the west coast of the U.S.  The principal investigator is Dr. Chungu Lu of CIRA/Boulder, and the project will be a joint effort between CIRA/Boulder and CIRA/Ft. Collins, as well as NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory.  (J. Dostalek)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for November and December 2007.  (Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for November and December 2007 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for November and December 2007. (Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues. A new hourly has been  hired and is presently being trained to take over this task.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive have been completed for Jul-Sep 2005, May 2006, and May-Sept 2007. Next quarter we will start working on data pulled from the CIRA main archive.  (Combs)

A meeting was held with Becca Mazur, an intern from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service office, on February 5, 2008 at CIRA.  We made updates on the progress each group is making towards the marine stratus climatologies for the Eureka area.  We discussed ways of determining marine stratus depth, data formats, and other ideas.  (Combs)

Work to incorporate the wind regime cloud climatologies into the Cheyenne’s National Weather Service (NWS) office forecast is progressing.  The procedure to convert the cloud composites into netCDF has met with some success.  Currently, Deb Molenar is working to add navigation information into the netCDF format.  (Combs)

MSG data available from the CIRA archive and FORTRAN programs from Stan Kidder to be used to read the MSG data were obtained.  (Combs)

A study continues which involves using GOES-11 bands 4 and 5 to assist in retrieving boundary layer moisture depth.  In addition to GOES and raob data, model data from the RUC and NAM were collected to provide supplementary information.  Preliminary results show that the RUC consistently outperforms the NAM in short-term low-level moisture forecasts, and work is still ongoing to determine what value the GOES bands 4 and 5 data might provide.  Finally, an inquiry was made about CIMSS’ Li/Li moisture retrieval in hopes that the best possible moisture retrieval may be developed. (D. Lindsey)

The GOES Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index was successfully updated to work with grib2 data.  As of the beginning of February 2008, NCEP model data switched from grib1 to grib2 format, so all algorithms making use of the model output needed to be updated.  A new FY08 PSDI project involves transferring this product to NESDIS operations, so this update for grib2 data was timely and necessary. (D. Lindsey)

A poster was presented at the 3rd Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data at the 2008 AMS Annual Meeting entitled “Examining a Possible Relationship Between Positive Dominated Storms and Cloud-Top Ice Crystal Size.”  Valuable discussions with a number of lightning researchers were held.    (D. Lindsey)

In order to prepare for the launch of GOES-R, an upper-tropospheric analysis product is being created using current GOES ozone data and COSMIC soundings.  Most of the work done this quarter focused on background reading on uses of ozone observations from satellite.  Some work with the COSMIC data was done for 20-21 December 2006, the Colorado snowstorm case chosen for code development.  Figure 1 shows the time of the COSMIC soundings for 20 December over the United States and surrounding areas.  (J. Dostalek)

Figure 1.

Work continues on the development of GOES-R ABI severe weather products.  A poster was presented at the GOES User’s Conference at the 2008 AMS Annual meeting in New Orleans entitled “Development of Severe Weather Products for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager,” by Lindsey, Hillger and Grasso. (D. Lindsey)

A standard program that will generate simulated McIDAS AREA files from model-output data has been created.  There seems to be an increasing need for simulated imagery produced from RAMS model output at CIRA, so software was written to create IR imagery both for the current GOES Imager and for future GOES-R ABI.  The program has already been used for numerous simulations, both for Algorithm Working Group research and other studies involved with simulated imagery from model output.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey)

Work continues in collaboration with Mike Fromm (NRL) studying pyrocumulonimbus clouds, or convective storms which form over large fires.  A very interesting case was recently identified in which 3-4 pyroCBs went up in British Columbia and Yukon amid numerous other convective towers, but the pyroCBs had significantly different properties in the GOES 3.9 µm band, suggesting particle size differences.  The image below (Figure 1) shows the GOES effective radius retrieval.  The clouds with the dark blue colors are the pyroCBs – they had extremely small ice crystals compared to the surrounding convection.  In addition, the pyroCB anvils persisted about 6 hours longer than the anvils from the other convection, suggesting that aerosols from the fire increased the cloud lifetime.  A journal article on this case is being considered.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure 1.  Effective radius retrieval from GOES-9 on 5 July 1998 at 0200 UTC over British Columbia and the Yukon.  Locations of PyroCBs are circled.

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

41 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 96 teletraining signups, 261 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio playback modules:

           
Registrations for 2nd Quarter 2008:  157
           
Completions for 2nd Quarter 2008:  98

LMS totals from January 2005 through March 28 2008:

Registrations for VISIT Courses:  1623

Completions: 783

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New teletraining sessions that debuted this quarter:

• “Satellite Interpretation for various Coastal Effects” by D. Bikos, J. Braun and J. Knaff (CIRA). 
• “GOES Low Cloud Base Product” by Ken Pryor and Gary Ellrod (NESDIS).

Ongoing development of new VISIT teletraining sessions:

• A new VISIT teletraining session titled “Severe weather forecasting – utilizing observational data to assess model trends and monitoring the changing mesoscale environment” is in development and will be completed spring 2008.  The training will be accompanied by a post-session WES simulation exercise.  The Weather Event Simulation (WES) case is being developed by D. Bikos for the 28 March 2007 tornado outbreak that occurred in the Great Plains.  Collaboration with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO / Dodge City, KS) is ongoing to supply additional data and insight into the case.
• New – VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – Officially started February 1, 2008.  (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

Blog Statistics accumulated Feb. 19, 2008 through March 31, 2008:

821 total hits.

There have been 16 posts within 46 categories. 

Top Posts:

• INFOrmation – 153
• What’s Going On Here… – 71
• What Could Have Been – 60
• AMS –FYI: United Airlines… – 21
• Topics, Ideas, and Questions for Submission – 17

Top Referrer Sites:

• CIMSS blog page – 79
• Alienworldsmag, news – 29
• Search Netzero – 14
• Netvibes – 12
• CIRA/RAMMB – 1
• 17 other sites have contributed to 1 or 2 hits

Top Clicks to other websites from ours

• The Aviation Weather Center
• The CIMSS Blog Page
• AMS 88th Annual Conference
• National Weather Service Training Center
• CIRA – Colostate.edu

Best Day – February 28, 2008:  70 hits.
(* Please contribute to the blog.  Get your ideas and/or questions concerning the atmospheric sciences out there.)
 
In addition:

Learning Management System (LMS)

• Testing Instructor Led Training (ILT) to eventually implement VISIT teletraining registration.
• Ongoing research regarding Winter Weather (“Henry’s Rule”) for possible publication.
• Starting data and support information for “Dryline” session.
• Working with Al Pietrycha (SOO GLD) for probable development of a “Feeder-Seeder” session.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 25, 2008.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through March 31, 2007: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

144 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered at CIRA (11 this quarter).
 
22 total Non-NOAA participants have registered at CIRA (3 this quarter).

NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual session breakdown through March 31, 2008 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for SHyMet Courses – 1826

Total Registered 2st Quarter 2008 – 135

Total Completed this Quarter – 2 NOAA and 1 Non-NOAA

Individual SHyMet Course Metrics – Numbers Registered:

1. Orientation:  258 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 24 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  235 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 22 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  233 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 22 this quarter.
4. POES…:  217 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 12 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  157 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 16 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  157 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 13 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  155 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 11 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  173 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 12 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  241 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 3 this quarter.

SHyMet Teletraining Numbers:  (Since April 2006)
           
GOES Sounder…:  53 completions
GOES High Density Winds.:  48 completions
Cyclogenesis:  54 completions.
Severe Weather:  52 completions.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert. 

CIRA participated in the GEOSS in the Americas meeting at the AMS conference.  The WMO sponsored training event has been tentatively set for September 2008 in Argentina. (B. Connell)

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for January, February, and March 2008) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with an average of 19 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather.  Discussion topics included precursor signals for a transition to El Niño conditions, review of climatological placement of the ITCZ and Bolivian High, gravity waves in the Atlantic, eruption of Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador, outflow boundaries and undular bore signatures in Argentina and a subtropical cyclone in Argentina. (B. Connell)

The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica.  During the dry season months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the hadar server listed above.

*** A lot of new material has been added to the Regional Meteorological Training Center of Excellence (RMTCoE) web page.  Check it out at: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/  (B. Connell)

GOES-12 imageryfor December 2007 through February 2008 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers of Excellence (RMTCoEs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2007, January and February  1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. 

Figure 1.  Monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2007, January and February 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.          Click on images to enlarge.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2007, January and February 1999-2008 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.   

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2007, January and February 1999-2008 for Barbados.

The following web pages continue to provide on-line imagery in jpg format over Central and South America and the Caribbean.  
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/RMTC.html
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/rmsdsol/COS.html  (for imagery over Costa Rica and Barbados
The imagery from these sites is also available for the international weather briefings through VISITView RAMSDIS Online:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtc1.html
The following site continues to display satellite precipitation estimates and fire products: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/sica/main.html (B. Connell, D. Coleman)

RAMMB ORA IT hardware requests have been spec’d and submitted. Migration to next generation tropical and McIDAS data servers is underway. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

Knaff, J.A., T.A. Cram, A.B. Schumacher, J.P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes. Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 17-28.

Mainelli, M., M. DeMaria, L.K. Shay, and G. Goni, 2008:  Application of Oceanic Heat Content Estimation to Operational Forecasting of Recent Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes.  Weather and Forecasting, 23:1, 3-16.

Rosenfeld, D., W.L. Woodley, A. Lerner, G. Kelman, and D.T. Lindsey: 2008:, Satellite detection of severe convective storms by their retrieved vertical profiles of cloud particle effective radius and thermodynamic phase, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D04208, doi:10.1029/2007JD008600.

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, B.H. Connell, J.F. Dostalek, D. Zupanski, 2008: GOES-R mesoscale product development. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

DeMaria, M., R. DeMaria, D.W. Hillger, R.Mazur, 2008: Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS soundings. 4th AMS Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – (NPOESS), 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, D.T. Lindsey, 2008: Improved calculations of legendre coefficients for use in generating synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-R ABI imagery. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Hillger, D.W., and R.L. Brummer, 2008: Real-time display of experimental GOES-R products. 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Knabb, R., M. Mainelli, M. DeMaria, 2008:  Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center, Special Symposium on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Lindsey, D.T., 2008: Examining a possible relationship between positive dominated storms and cloud-top ice crystal size. 3rd AMS Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Lindsey, D.T., D.W. Hillger, L.D. Grasso, 2008:  Development of severe weather products for the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager.  5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2008:  Preparing for GOES-R+ user training and education, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, D.W. Hillger, R.L. Brummer, M. DeMaria, 2008:  Quantifying uncertainties in fire size and temperature measured by GOES-R ABI, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Zhu, T., M. Kim, F. Weng, M. Goldberg, A. Huang, M. Sengupta, D.K. Zhou, and B. Ruston, 2008:  GOES-R Proxy Data Management System, 5th AMS GOES Users’ Conference, 21-25 January, New Orleans, LA.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Hillger, D.W., 2008:  GOES-R advanced baseline imager color product development. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology-A.

Knaff, J.A., R.M. Zehr, 2008:  Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind-Pressure Relationships. Weather and Forecasting.

Lindsey, D.T., and L.D. Grasso, 2008:  An effective radius retrieval for thick ice clouds using GOES. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2008:  Tropical Cyclone Size Evolution. Monthly Weather Review.

Sampson, C.R., J.F. Franklin, J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2007:  Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Indication of water vapor transport into the lower stratosphere above midlatitude convective storms: Meteosat Second Generation satellite observations and radiative transfer model simulations. Atmospheric Research. 

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

DeMaria, M., 2008:  A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2008: The GOES-13 Science Test. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Knaff, J.A., 2008:  Revisiting the Maximum Intensity of Recurving Tropical Cyclones. International Journal of Climatology.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, J.A., Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting.

Zupanski, M., D. Zupanski, S. J. Fletcher, M. DeMaria, and R. Dumais, 2008: Ensemble data assimilation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: The Hurricane Katrina case. J. Geophys. Res.

• Nonrefereed    

DeMaria, M., 2008: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity evolution.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

DeMaria, M., J. Hawkins, J. Dunion, and D. Smith, 2008:  Tropical cyclone itensity forecasting using a satellite-based total precipitable water product.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2008:  A revised rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and E. Pacific basins. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Knaff, J.A., 2008:  Rapid tropical cyclone transitions to major hurricane intensity: Structural evolution of infrared imagery.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Maclay, K., 2008:  Case study of hurricane Wilma’s wind structure evolution using HWRF. 28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Mainelli, M., R.D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, and J.A. Knaff, 2008: Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities and their relationships with coastal watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Majumdar, S., J. J. Cione, E. Uhlhorn, G. Cascella, S. D. Aberson, R. Atlas, J. L. Beven, D. P. Brown, J. P. Dunion, C. Fogarty, R. Hart, D. C. Herndon, J.A. Knaff, C. W. Landsea, F. D. Marks, and C. Velden, 2008: Analysis of the inner-core characteristics of Noel (2007) during its extratropical transition.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, I. Ginis, and B. Thomas, 2008:  A simple parameterization of sea surface cooling beneath a hurricane inner core.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Zehr, R.M., J.A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Tropical cyclone environmental vertical wind shear analysis using a microwave sounder.  28th AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April-2 May, Orlando, FL.

Zupanski D., M. Zupanski, R. Brummer and M. DeMaria, 2008: Data assimilation: Extracting maximum information from the GOES-R data. CIRA Spring 2008 Newsletter.

Presentations:

DeMaria, M. S.Q. Kidder, P. Harr, J.A. Knaff, C. Lauer, 2008:  An improved wind probability program: A joint testbed project update. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.

Gurka, J.J., T. Schmit, T. Renkevens, M. DeMaria, and C. Velden, 2008:  Baseline Instruments for the GOES-R Series: Providing Major Improvements to Hurricane Observations. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.

Knaff, J.A. 2008: Rapid Transitions to Major Hurricane in IR imagery. Presentation at NCAR’s Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, 16 January 2008.

Knaff, J.A., 2008: Desirable Attributes of a SATB, A Developers Point of View. Presented at the NOAA Satellite Operations Facility, Suitland, MD, 26 February 2008.

Knaff, J.A., A. Krautkramer, M. DeMaria, A.B. Schumacher, 2008:  New and updated operational tropical cyclone wind products.  62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC. [Available at http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc08/Presentations/Session10/s10-05Jknaff.ppt]

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, D.P. Brown, 2008:  The NESDIS tropical cyclone formation probability product: An overview of past performance and future plans. 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 3-7 March, Charleston, SC.

As part of the AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans, D. Hillger, along with M. DeMaria, presented lectures for the “Short Course on Methods and Software for Hurricane and Tropical Storm Predication.”  Hillger presented Principal Component Image analysis as a tool for analyzing multi-spectral satellite data, with hurricane examples.  The course was well received, and garnered good marks and several immediate questions and comments from participants.  Hillger was also part of four posters, three of which were in the Fifth GOES User’s Conference, and one in the NPOESS Conference. 

A one-day tropical cyclone workshop involving RAMMB and CIRA/CSU tropical cyclone researchers and NCAR scientists was held at the NCAR Foothills Lab in Boulder, CO on January 16.  The goal of this workshop was to foster better communication and joint collaborations on tropical cyclone research between RAMMB/CSU Atmospheric Science and NCAR.  Several researchers from CIRA and RAMMB gave informal presentations on tropical cyclone research and participated in collaborative discussions during the workshop.  (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, R. Zehr, A. Schumacher, K. Maclay)

Several RAMMB scientists participated in the StAR Science Forum on January 17 , which gave attendees, prior to the AMS Annual Meeting, an opportunity to give a short summary of their presentations. (M. DeMaria, D. Hillger, D. Lindsey,  L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, R. Brummer, B. Connell)

Dudley Chelton, CIOSS, Oregon State University, gave a special seminar entitled “Observations and Modeling of Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Surface Winds and the Troposphere” and visited RAMMB/CIRA research scientists on Thursday, March 27.

Jordan Gerth of SSEC spent two days at CIRA, providing training for D. Molenar and H. Gosden on implementation of local products into AWIPS.

D. Molenar continues participation as the RAMMB focal point in the STAR IT Advisory Committee, Data Management and Standards working groups, as well as the McIDAS-V Advisory Committee. (D. Molenar)

D. Molenar, D. Watson and H. Gosden are participating in a Java development class presented by NWS Western Region Headquarters.  The class is designed to prepare forecasters for AWIPS II, which has been redesigned to utilize Java for data display. (D. Molenar, D. Watson, H. Gosden)

An annual event at Colorado State University (CSU) is the Professional Development Institute (PDI), offered early each January.  As an extension to Computer Training and Support Services (CTSS) offered at CSU, the PDI is an opportunity for other faculty and staff at CSU to share their expertise.  This year about 90 sessions were offered over three days.  Courses range from CSU-specific content to specialty topics just for fun.  D. Hillger and K. Fryer attended several of the courses, with Hillger also presenting one of the sessions, titled “The Metric System in the U.S.: Where are we?”  (D. Hillger, K. Fryer)