Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Verification statistics were compiled for Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis for cases that occurred during the Atlantic 2008 Hurricanes season these were provided to J. Franklin (NHC) and J. Hanna (SAB).   The figure below shows the biases and mean absolute errors, in units of n.mi, associated with radii of 34, 50, 64 kt winds fixes and MSLP vs. final best track values.  (J. Knaff)

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 1:  Verification of significant wind radii and MSLP pressure estimates created by the Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis during the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Verification is based on values in the final best track from NHC.

To increase the utility of the tropical cyclone wind probability product that was developed as a Joint Hurricane Testbed project and implemented into operations at NCEP, NHC and JTWC, experimental wind probability thresholds for issuing Tropical Cyclone Conditions Of Readiness (TC-COR) were provided to NRLMRY so that the information can be disseminated as part of the operational text product produced on the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. TC-COR 4, 3, 2, and 1 correspond to the likelihood of 50-kt winds within 72, 48, 24 and 12 hours, respectively.    These experimental probability values were based on analysis of Atlantic hurricane warnings and simply extended to the TC-COR definitions for testing during the upcoming typhoon season.  Changes will be made in May 2009 as part of the ATCF annual upgrade. (A. Schumacher, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria)

A web page was created for displaying the results of an experimental version of NHC’s operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability product.  The experimental version takes into account the spread in the forecasts from NHC’s primary track models.  All Atlantic cases with 1000 km of the U.S. coast from the 2008 season were rerun for evaluation by NHC.  (See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/tc_wind_prob/gpce.asp.  (M. DeMaria, G. DeMaria)

Two JHT proposals with RAMMB and CIRA participation were approved for FY09 funding. RAMMB is the lead on a project to develop new applications of the operational National Hurricane Center wind speed probabilities. RAMMB and CIRA are collaborators on a project with the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) to improve tropical cyclone rapid intensity forecasts through the inclusion of satellite-derived total precipitable water input and principal component analysis of GOES imagery. (J. Dostalek, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

In a study investigating the influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere, data are being collected for the study period of January and February 2007.  In order to use the AMSU data aboard the NOAA-18 satellite, code was written to read the HDF-EOS format in which the data are stored. (J. Dostalek)

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its effect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which will use the GFS model fields as input.  The omega equation will be solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform.  The coding is essentially complete and testing is underway. (J. Dostalek)

In an effort to assess the quality of satellite-data-based profiles of the tropical atmosphere, special software has been requested from Tony Reale (NESDIS).  The software will facilitate the temporal and spatial matchups between the satellite retrievals, radiosondes, and available dropsondes. (J. Dostalek)

Storm-centered simulated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) imagery was created using Meteosat Second Generation imagery for seven Atlantic tropical cyclone cases that occurred in 2006-2008.  Cases include Gordon (2006), Helene (2006), Dean (2007), Karen (2007), Bertha (2008), Ike (2008) and Omar (2008).  Figure 1 shows an example of the 10 ABI channels created for Hurricane Ike (2008) on Sept 4 at 18 UTC.  (J. Knaff)         

Click on image to enlarge.

Figure 1. Simulated storm centered ABI imagery over Hurricane Ike (2008) on 4 September 2008 at 18 UTC.    The enhancement table is the same for all images and the color bar at the bottom of the images provides information about the corresponding temperatures in degrees Celsius.

Simulated ABI imagery were used to 1) create several RGB image products and 2) a cloud top effective ice radius product.  The capability to overlay WWLLN lightning data was also developed.  Figure 2 shows an example of the air mass RGB product with hourly lightning strikes from the WWLLN dataset over laid. (J. Knaff)

Figure 2.  An RGB Airmass product created from simulated ABI imagery and hourly lightning strike locations.

MSLP estimates of Tropical Cyclone Nargis, which made landfall in Myanmar 2 May 2008, were provided to ARA KOH of Pukyoung National University, Busan, Korea.  The estimates were calculated from the azimuthally averaged wind field generated by the experimental Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Analysis run at CIRA/RAMMB. (J. Knaff)

Diagnostic files that are created as part of the Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Analysis are being provided via ftp.  R. Mantovani of Risk Management Systems (RMS), Newark, CA requested the files be created for RMS’s real-time modeling and risk assessment activities.  The files contain estimated position, maximum wind and its location, radii of 34, 50, and 64 kt winds, and the MSLP.  Files are updated every 6 hours at approximately half-past the synoptic hour and are available at ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/knaff/RMS/ (J. Knaff)

The low-level wind field calculated as part of the MTC-SWA that were calculated over the past three tropical cyclone seasons in the Western North Pacific were provided to C. Ping a Scientific Office, the Aerodrome Forecast division of the Aviation Branch, at the Hong Kong Observatory.  One of his job duties is to enhance aviation forecasting techniques, especially on wind forecasts during tropical cyclone situations He will supervise a student project to verify the analyzed winds with surface observations obtained around the airports.  The ultimate goal is an estimate of the wind speeds at the airports that account for topography and surface effects. (J. Knaff)

Visible and Infrared imagery of Hurricane Georges (1998) on the 19th and 20th of September, the period of rapid intensification, was supplied to M. Montgomery, graduate student, N. Sanger, at the Naval Postgraduate School for use in his research.  (J. Knaff)

As part of a study to relate snowfall patterns to the cloud-top structure seen in GOES IR imagery of midlatitude cyclones, three different patterns have emerged.  The first, currently called the “classic” structure, is the typical comma cloud.  The second, called the “separated head” structure, has a comma head composed of both lower and middle/high clouds.  The third category, called the “warm separated” structure, has a comma head composed primarily of clouds with relatively warm temperatures compared to the frontal cloud band.  Examples of the three cases are given below. (J. Dostalek)

Example of a “classic” cloud-top structure, from 17 Feb 2008.  The black lines are locations of cross sections (not shown).

Example of a “separated” cloud-top structure, from 19 Feb 2000.  The black lines are locations of cross sections (not shown).

Example of a “warm separated” cloud-top structure, from 4 March 2008.  The black lines are locations of cross sections (not shown).

The dynamical differences among the three structures are currently being investigated.  This work constitutes CSU Atmospheric Science student Darren Van Cleave’s Master’s thesis.  An abstract was accepted for the AMS Weather and Forecasting/Numerical Weather Prediction conference taking place this summer. (J. Dostalek)

In order to best facilitate the work on combining COSMIC soundings with GOES total ozone retrievals, an ingest process was set up which collects the GOES total ozone AREA files.  Previously, only gif images of the total ozone were available, but in order to combine the values with the COSMIC soundings, it is necessary to have digital data which can be manipulated.  (J. Dostalek)

Work continues on the development of a statistical severe weather prediction algorithm.  The first version of the algorithm, which will focus on hail prediction, is nearly complete.  One of the predictors in the model is hail climatology.  The figure below shows a 10-year severe hail report climatology.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  Number of severe hail reports (>3/4″ diameter) from March through August of 1998-2007 from a severe storm report database.  The units are number of hail reports per 2×2 degree latitude/longitude box.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for July, August, September, October, November and December of 2008.  The new hire has been doing a great job, and between the two of us, the project is finally catching up. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for July, August, September, October, November and December of 2008 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for July, August, September, October, November and December 2008. (C. Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive have been completed for May-July 2001 and May-June 2002.  (C. Combs)

Work continued with Treena Hartley, Arlena Moses and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service(NWS) office, and Becca Mazur recently transferred to the Cheyenne, WY NWS office. We have had four telecons this quarter to discuss progress and project needs. We also discussed various ways to remove synopically driven days from climatology set. (C. Combs)

Various Eureka sector images for 11 and 12 UTC  in McIdas format were converted into GeoTiff for a test month (June 2004).  Arlena Moses has developed a GIS algorithm to determine marine stratus depth using cloud/no cloud GeoTiff images.  She is currently testing the algorithm with the test month data.  Once testing is complete, CIRA will produce cloud/nocloud images from the best hour (either 11 or 12 UTC) for the data set and send them to Eureka. (C. Combs)

MSG data for February and March was pulled and the European sector was sectored out.  Cloud products for February were produced. (C. Combs)

Gary Hufford from Alaska alerted B. Connell and D. Hillger to the higher-than-normal potential for an eruption of Mt. Redoubt on west side the Cook Inlet.  In response, a GOES-West 1-km visible floater sector was centered on Redoubt, as well as a 4-km 4-panel display of Principal Component Imagery (PCI) products.  The PCI products were part of a Proving Ground presentation attended by Gary Hufford last summer, at which time the Okmok volcano was active.  The newly-centered floater sectors are available on RAMSDIS Online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp as the 2nd and 11th products down on the left (GOES-West) side of the page.  Loops of the available imagery are accessed through the links next to the thumbnail images of the latest images.  (D. Hillger, B. Connell)

Work on the“Kyrill” case continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding locations. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. Last quarter, a draft of a paper to be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal was prepared. This quarter a paper entitled “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” has been submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria)

Synthetic imagery for the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case has been completed. Similar to past simulations, synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from 3.9 to 13.3 µm was produced for this case. Unlike past simulations, synthetic imagery at 2.25 µm was also produced. (L. Grasso)

An interesting consequence of this particular case came about by comparing synthetic and observed GOES-12 imagery at 3.9 µm. As a result, a coding error was detected in RAMS. This highlights the potential use of synthetic imagery to evaluated model performance. A manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)
   
As a first step at producing synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery at 0.47 µm, we approximated surface albedoes at this wavelength by reducing surface emmissivity values at 3.9 µm. This produced unfavorable results. Our second attempt at obtaining a map of the surface abledo relied on MODIS imagery. The idea was to compute satellite measured reflectance from the radiance field; solar zenith angle, and the solar constant at visible wavelengths. Results improved, yet issues remain. In addition, the observational operator was improved with the help of Frank Evans (from the University of Colorado). This quarter, I obtained MODIS 16-day white sky albedoes from Cyrstal Schaaf who is the MODIS project leader in this area. Our first GOES-R ABI true color image compares well to the MODIS images.  Some issues remain and they relate to using a lookup table to acquire the green GOES-R band and the Rayleigh correction to each synthetic image. (L. Grasso, D. Hillger, and M. Sengupta)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript will be submitted for peer-review. (Isidora Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, P.J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

In addition, Isidora continues to help with wrf_3.0.1. With her help, we are in the process of running a simulation with three two-way interactive nested grids. In this case, all three grids were initialized at time zero. The next step is to spawn grid 4 at a time that is different from the initial time. (L. Grasso and I. Jankov)
Improved versions have been generated of simulated GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) visible/reflective band imagery.  The new simulations are based on 16-day albedos from MODIS for land surfaces.  These simulations are an improvement over the first ones which used MODIS reflectances as the surface albedos.  Figure 1 compares the ABI simulations to two MODIS RGB images, one created using the MODIS Green band and the other created using a simulated Green band from a process similar to that used for ABI, which lacks the Green band.  (The Green band needs to be simulated before the RGB product can be generated for ABI.)  Results of the ABI simulations are quite good, with the ABI RGB comparing more favorably to the MODIS RGB than even to the MODIS simulated RGB which is computationally more similar to the ABI product!  (D. Hillger, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, R. Brummer, S. Miller)

Figure 1: Simulated ABI true-color (RGB) image (upper-left) compared to MODIS true-color (upper-right) and to MODIS simulated true-color (lower-right).

A Rayleigh-correction has been applied to GOES-R simulated Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) visible/reflective band imagery.  The code from Steve Miller, originally developed for MODIS imagery, has been modified for McIDAS use and applied to ABI images from the Red, Near-IR, and Blue bands.  Those Rayleigh-corrected images were then used to generate the ABI “Green” band, again using code originally developed for MODIS imagery.  The ABI Green band was then combined with the Red and Blue bands of ABI to create true-color (RGB) images.  Images without and with the Rayleigh correction applied are shown in Figure 2, and are compared to a MODIS true-color image.  These are preliminary results, in that further refinement of the un-corrected simulated images is expected soon, since we are learning the nuances of generating simulated visible images.  Regardless, the Rayleigh correction appears to brighten the Blue band image the most (not shown), resulting in better generation of both the Green band image (not shown) and the true-color image (in Figure 2).  (D. Hillger, L. Grasso)

Figure 2:  Simulated ABI true-color (RGB) image without (upper-left) and with (upper-right) a Raleigh correction applied.  The two ABI images are compared to a MODIS true-color image (lower-right) at nearly the same time.

In a conference call between CIRA and members of the Aviation AWG, it was decided that synthetic ABI imagery from the 27 June 2005 severe weather simulation will be provided to CIMSS and the University of Huntsville to help test their Convective Initiation Algorithm.  This algorithm is currently being developed as part of the Aviation AWG.  The unique advantage of using model-derived proxy data to test a GOES-R algorithm is that model fields can be examined for a pseudo-ground truth. (D. Lindsey)

Preliminary image data has been supplied to Aude Valade, a Master’s Degree candidate (in Atmospheric Science) at the University of California, Davis. The topic of his thesis is to analyze the characteristics of Californian heat waves using both station data and thermal satellite imagery. From having seen CIRA image products online, Mr. Valade is interested in skin temperatures over California derived from the GOES-west split-window bands, using software developed at CIRA. (D. Hillger)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

28 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 42 teletraining signups, 134 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

           Registrations:  105           Completions:  75

LMS totals from January 2005 through April 1 2009:

           Registrations:  2152        Completions: 1066

Definitions used in LMS metrics:

Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.

Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

Ongoing development of new VISIT teletraining sessions:

• Assist B. Motta and R. Vantil (NOAA/FDTB) in the development of a new training session on AWIPS OB9 satellite content, including High Density winds from the Japanese satellite and the CIRA blended TPW product (D.Bikos)
• Jet streak analysis for severe thunderstorm forecasting (D.Bikos).
• Basic satellite interpretation in the tropics (D.Bikos). 
• The use of GOES satellite imagery with all other available datasets to analyze and forecast severe weather associated with the Dryline (J. Braun).

Research:

• D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  The topic is based on a conference presentation and seminar.
• Some of the social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case are also being explored.  J. Braun is helping with this cause and just finished organizing and attending a meeting with the local/regional Emergency Managers as well as the executive director of LETA (Larimer Emergency Telephone Authority) for some input concerning short fuse warnings and the use of the Emergency Notification System (ENS). (December 10, 2008)
• We are helping with the operational as well as social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case (Windsor Colorado).  The work is focused on the production of a conference paper titled, “The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado Tornado: Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and the Communication of Weather Information.”  Lead author, Russ S. Schumacher, will deliver a version of this study at several different conferences.  Others in group:  Steve Miller, A. Schumacher and D. Lindsey.
• J. Dostalek is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in ongoing research regarding analysis of water vapor imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  This will be submitted later to the NWA as this was where the original paper and concept was introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.

Invited-speaker presentation:

• D. Bikos was an invited speaker for the severe weather workshop at the NWS forecast office in Cheyenne, WY.  The presentation covered severe weather in southeast WY, in particular, the 22 May 2008 event was discussed in detail. 

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through March 31, 2008:
• 7821 total hits.
• Currently averaging about 28 hits per day.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – March 25, 2009.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

Development of new SHyMet training sessions:

• Finishing “Intro to Aviation Hazards/Weather.” (J. Braun) 
• Continuing development of the “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD).  (J. Braun)
• Developing web pages and student guide for each SHyMet session. (J. Braun)
• Satellite cloud climatology training session. (D. Bikos and B. Connell)
• “Intro to GOES-R” (B. Connell)
• Introduction to the Dvorak technique (R. Zehr and M. DeMaria)

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through March 31, 2009: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

185 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (15 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Development Plan composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).
 
23 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (1 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through March 31, 2008 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2445

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes for 1st Quarter 2009 – 139

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 2nd Quarter 2009 –
2 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class (SHyMet Course) Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

1. Orientation:  338 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 21 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  299 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  315 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 19 this quarter.
4. POES…:  277 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 15 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  219 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 14 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  214 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 10 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  223 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 11 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  256 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  301 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 9 this quarter.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert. (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Visitors from Argentina:  CIRA hosted two visitors from the Argentina Space Agency (CONAE – Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales  http://www.conae.gov.ar/eng/principal.html ) from March 9-12 to discuss education materials and strategies to teach science to children and youth ages 6 to 16.  Lucia Kocar is the Program Coordinator for their newly established education program called 2Mp in which they expect to reach out to 2 million people.   Patricia Alvarez is the Information Technology specialist for the program.  We visited with groups closely associated with CIRA and CSU in Fort Collins and in Boulder: the VISIT program http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/visithome.asp, Little Shop of Physics http://littleshop.physics.colostate.edu/, the GLOBE program http://www.globe.gov/r, COMET http://www.comet.ucar.edu/, Windows to the Universe http://www.windows.ucar.edu/, and Science on a Sphere http://sos.noaa.gov/.  The exchange of information was beneficial to all.

Lucia Kocar and Patricia Alvarez from Argentina, and Bernie Connell (CIRA) view satellite imagery over South America.  March 12, 2009.

Monthly International Weather Briefings:

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for January, February, and March 2009) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division, SAB at NESDIS, the NWS International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay,  Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 25 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  The discussions focused on convective activity in South America and heavy rains in Central and South America, particularly in Brazil and Costa Rica.    (B. Connell)

Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above. (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products:

GOES-12 imageryfor December 2008 through February 2009 were processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2008, January and February 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1.  (B. Connell)

Figure 1.  Monthly cloud frequency composites for December 1996-2008, January and February 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2008, January and February 1999-2009 for Barbados is shown in Figure 2.  (B. Connell)                              

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2.  Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for December 1998-2008, January and February 1999-2009 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean have been consolidated and updated.  The RAMSDIS Online imagery can now be viewed at one location (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).  This step was a welcome upgrade to the International Weather Briefings page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visitview/focus/viewgroup.html), allowing for viewing of higher resolution imagery as well as increased speed for the download of imagery. 

Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/   (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

Along with T. Schmit, the GOES-O milestone was completed to: Develop and implement science plan for GOES-O checkout.  More information on the upcoming GOES-O Science Test is posted at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/  (D. Hillger)

The RAMMB experimental AWIPS system was successfully upgraded to OB9.0 to facilitate check-out of newly available Blended TPW Product by Stan Kidder. (D. Molenar)

The CIRA NexSat GeoColor product is successfully transmitting to the NWS Central Region HQ LDM server, and to the CYS Forecast Office.  AWIPS software developed at CIRA to view the product within AWIPS will be installed on CYS and BOU AWIPS workstations in mid-April. (D. Molenar)

The CIRA Orographic Rain Index product has been ported to the CIRA AWIPS system.  Efforts are underway to work with Western Region HQ to determine the best product dissemination method.  (D. Molenar)

Computer security software on all RAMMB/CIRA systems was tested in advance of the rumored April 1 activation of the Conficker virus.  Efforts are underway to implement the McAfee E-Policy Organizer to streamline implementation and update of security software.  (D. Molenar)

StAR IT Refresh procurement requests have been submitted. (D. Molenar)

Published:

• Refereed

DeMaria, M., 2009:  A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review. 137:1, 68–82.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria and J.A. Knaff, 2009: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation, Wea. Forecasting, 24, 456-471.

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., M. Sengupta, L. Grasso, D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, R. DeMaria, and M. DeMaria: 2009: Synthetic satellite datasets for GOES-R ABI Bands.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., M. Davison, A. Mostek, V. Castro, and T. Whittaker, 2009:  International satellite training activities. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., and L.G. Guirola, 2009:  Regional satellite climatologies for Central America from GOES. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., 2009:  Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS and GOES-R. 5th AMS Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – NPOESS and GOES-R, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., and R. DeMaria, 2009:  Applications of lightning observations to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., S. Kidder, C. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, C. Lauer, and C. Sisko, 2009:  An Improved Wind Probabability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A.B. Schumacher, J. Kaplan, D. Brown, G. Gallina, J. Kossin, 2009:  Improved GOES Utilization for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, R.L. Brummer, R. DeMaria, and D.W. Hillger, 2009: Synthetic GOES-R imagery of fires at 3.9 µm. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Guch, I., S.Q. Kidder, P. Menzel, R. Ferraro, S. Ackerman, D. Khanbilvardi, T. Strub, B. Vant Hull, R. Hudson, and M. DeMaria, 2009: Collaborative training efforts at the NESDIS Cooperative Institutes. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Gurka, J., A. Mostek, T.J. Schmit, S.D Miller, A. Bachmeier, M. DeMaria, 2009:  GOES-R Proving Ground Program.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and R.L. Brummer, 2009: GOES-R ABI product development.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., and G. Toth, 2008: Un-manned satellites on postage stamps 28: The A-1 satellite, Astrophile, 53(1), (January/February), 37-39.

Knaff, J.A., 2009:  Propagating patterns in 6.7 µm imagery in re-intensifying tropical-to-extratropical cyclone transitions.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Knaff, J.A., D.W. Hillger, M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2009:  Developing GOES-R Tropical Cyclone Products vis Proxies. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Miller, S.D., M. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, E. Szokes, R.L. Brummer, A. Kuciauskas, F. Turk, H. Gosden, 2009:  Contributions from CIRA to the GOES-R Satellite Proving Ground. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, T.J. Schmit, 2009:  NOAA Satellite Training.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Santos, P., D. Sharp, M. DeMaria, S. Kiser, 2009:  The Determination of Optimal Thresholds of Tropical Cyclone Incremental Wind Speed Probabilities to Support Expressions of Uncertainty in Text Forecasts. AMS Symposium on Urban High Impact Weather, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, D. Brown, and E. Rappaport, 2009:  Applications of the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product to Quantifying Potential Impacts of Hurricane Forecast Improvements. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, R.L. Brummer, and D.W. Hillger, 2009:  Improving fire detection: Current GOES to GOES-R.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2009:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2009: The GOES-13 Science Test. A Synopsis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 6-11.

Knaff, J.A.,  2009.   Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones.   Int. J. Climatology., published early on line, 11pp.  DOI: 10.1002/joc.1746  [ also available on-line at http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/4735/home ]

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008a: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part I:  Control Forecasts Based on Climatology and Persistence. Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008b: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II:   Statistical – Dynamical Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2008c: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part III:   Statistical – Consensus Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological Magazine, in press.

Mazur, R.J., J.F.Weaver, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2009:  A preliminary statistical study of correlations between inflow feeder clouds, supercell or multicell thunderstorms, and severe weather.  Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2009:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Submitted:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2009:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2009:  Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Pressure-Wind Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres.  Australian Meteorological Magazine.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, R. Knabb, C. Lauer, C.R. Sampson, R.T. DeMaria, 2009:  A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Weather and Forecasting.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2009:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2009: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Zupanski, D., 2009: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2009: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Zupanski, M., 2009: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Nonrefereed 

DeMaria, M., 2009: Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Lightning Observations.  Summer Thunder Workshop, 28-30 July, Cocoa Beach, FL.

Knaff, J.A., D. Brown, J. Courtney, M. Gallina, 2009:  An Evaluation of Biases and Errors Associated with the Subjective Dvorak Technique 1989-2007. IBTrACS Workshop, 5-7 May, Ashville, NC.

Award:

The paper “Stratospheric impact of the Chisholm pyrocumulonimbus eruption: Part 1. Earth-viewing satellite perspective,” by M. Fromm (NRL) et al., for which D. Lindsey is a co-author on, has been selected to receive an Alan Berman Research Publication Award at the Naval Research Laboratory. 

Presentations:

DeMaria, M., S. Kidder, C. Sampson, J.A. Knaff, C. Lauer, and C. Sisko, 2009:  An Improved Wind Probabability Program: A Year 2 Joint Hurricane Testbed Project Update. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, A.B. Schumacher, J. Kaplan, D. Brown, G. Gallina, J. Kossin, 2009:  Improved GOES Utilization for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Knaff, J.A., D.W. Hillger, M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, 2009:  Developing GOES-R Tropical Cyclone Products vis Proxies. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

Schumacher, A.B., M. DeMaria, D. Brown, and E. Rappaport, 2009:  Applications of the National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Product to Quantifying Potential Impacts of Hurricane Forecast Improvements. 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, 2-5 March, St. Petersburg, FL.

D. Lindsey gave a talk entitled “Wildfire-Induced Thunderstorms: Observations and Possible Climate Impacts” at both a CIRA Special Seminar, and at the University of Georgia’s Geography Department the week of March 20

Special:  D. Hillger contributed greatly to a new hardcover book From Weather Gods to Modern Meteorology: A Philatelic Journey, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO-No. 1023, 2008, 112-pages, ISBN 978-92-63-11023-7).  He and fellow meteorologist Garry Toth of Environment Canada, at the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre in Edmonton Alberta, Canada, worked with Dr. Raino Heino of the Finnish Meteorological Institute, who expertly compiled the material from his 128-page exhibit, which has been rewarded by Gold medals in international philatelic exhibitions.  None of us are noted directly as authors of the book, but we are given credit for our materials and are heavily referenced for our published articles using the same materials.  See the WMO publications catalog or the WMO online store for ordering information. (D. Hillger)

M. DeMaria, J. Knaff and A. Schumacher from RAMMB and CIRA attended the 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference in Tampa, Florida. Three oral presentations and one poster presentation were given on new tropical cyclone applications of the current GOES and GOES-R, as well as on improvements to the National Hurricane Center’s operational tropical cyclone wind probability product and its application to the evaluation of societal impacts of improved tropical cyclone forecasting. The group attended several other meetings on RAMMB involvement in the GOES-R proving ground and Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP)

CIRA hosted two visitors from the Argentina Space Agency (CONAE – Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales  http://www.conae.gov.ar/eng/principal.html ) from March 9-12 to discuss education materials and strategies to teach science to children and youth ages 6 to 16.  Lucia Kocar is the Program Coordinator for their newly established education program called 2Mp in which they expect to reach out to 2 million people.   Patricia Alvarez is the Information Technology specialist for the program.  We visited with groups closely associated with CIRA and CSU in Fort Collins and in Boulder: the VISIT program http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/visithome.asp, Little Shop of Physics http://littleshop.physics.colostate.edu/, the GLOBE program http://www.globe.gov/r, COMET http://www.comet.ucar.edu/, Windows to the Universe http://www.windows.ucar.edu/, and Science on a Sphere http://sos.noaa.gov/.  The exchange of information was beneficial to all. See International.

M. DeMaria received the Richard H. Hagemeyer Award at the 63rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, which is given annually to honor people that have made sustained contributions to the U.S. Hurricane Program. The primary basis of the award was a long history of successful development and operational transition of tropical cyclone forecast products, including the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models, the rapid intensity index (co-developed with HRD), the NHC wind speed probability program and the NESDIS tropical cyclone formation probability product. Previous winners of the award include Joanne Simpson, Max Mayfield and Chris Velden.

D. Molenar and M. DeMaria provided input to CIRA staff annual reviews. (D. Molenar, M. DeMaria)

D. Lindsey (co-chair) participated remotely in an ICAPOP meeting on 19 February.  (D. Lindsey)

All NOAA RAMMB employees have completed the required computer security training course.

All RAMMB members participated by conference call in the Greenfair Moses III presentation.

On Wednesday, 25 February, J. Knaff, A. Schumacher and M. DeMaria attended a NCAR/CSU/CIRA/NOAA Tropical Cyclone Workshop at NCAR.  This is the third in a series of workshops designed to improve communication and collaboration on tropical cyclone research at NCAR, CSU, and NOAA.   This workshop was organized by J. Knaff, and hosted by G. Holland (NCAR). 

D. Hillger is attending lectures in two new offerings at the Department of Atmospheric Science this semester.  Two series of courses, with slightly different focus, are being offered covering various aspects of computers and programming, with particular emphasis on capabilities offered at the Department and CIRA.  Topics range from UNIX and Linux to FORTRAN, Matlab and IDL, covering many of the tools used in scientific programming.  (D. Hillger)

An annual event at Colorado State University (CSU) is the Professional Development Institute (PDI), offered early each January, as an opportunity for faculty and staff to share their expertise.  Over 90 sessions were offered in three days.  Courses ranged from CSU-specific content to a wide range of specialty topics such as “happiness” and “your true colors”.  D. Hillger and K. Fryer attended several of the courses, with Hillger also presenting one of the sessions, titled “The Metric System: Why the U.S. is Slow to Adopt?”  Presenters were evaluated on their material by those who attended their classes.  (D. Hillger, K. Fryer)