Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its effect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which will use the GFS model fields as input.  The omega equation is solved using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform.  A test forcing was created such that the computed omega could be compared to the analytical omega.  The results show good agreement.  (J. Dostalek)

Omega computed from test forcing.  The x axis is latitude in degrees and the y axis is pressure in hPa.

Analytical omega corresponding to test forcing.  The x axis is latitude in degrees and the y axis is pressure in hPa.

A proposal entitled “Global Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product” was accepted for FY2010.  The research will expand the extent of the product from the Atlantic and North Pacific basins to also include the southern hemisphere and Indian Ocean basins.  (J. Dostalek, A. Schumacher)

The NPROVS (NOAA Product Validation System) graphical software was installed at the RAMM Branch.  The software will be used to assess the quality of tropical temperature and moisture retrievals from polar-orbiting satellites.  The assessment will be based not only on overall performance with respect to radiosondes and dropsondes, but also on the ability to capture atmospheric characteristics such as low-level moisture, trade-wind inversions, stability indices, and tropopause level.  The included figure shows the ProfileDisplay interface, part of the NPROVS graphical software.  In addition, a proposal (“Validation of Satellite-Based Thermodynamic Retrievals in the Tropics”) for the continuation of this work for an additional year was accepted. (J. Dostalek)

Interface for ProfileDisplay, part of the NPROVS graphical software.

The Dvorak Technique for estimating tropical cyclone intensity has been validated versus aircraft-influenced best track intensities.  This method continues to be an important operational tool for making such estimates.  Finding suggest that biases are a function of intensity, intensity trend, translation speed, latitude and size (pressure of outer closed isobar), as shown in the figure below, whereas errors are primarily a function of intensity.  The goal of such research is to help identify the causes of existing biases and possibly reducing the errors associated with operation tropical cyclone intensity estimates.  A journal article is being prepared.  (J. Knaff)

Figure 1.  Average biases associated with the Dvorak technique coming from two agencies SAB (left) and TAFB (right).  The comparisons are homogeneous.  The composites were constructed using intensity trend (first row), latitude (second row), translation speed (third row) and ROCI (fourth row).  Stratifications are provided below.

The Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) was successfully ported to computers systems at the National Satellite Operations Facility.   The data ingest and softwareis now running and producing all the products and graphics in real-time.  Software locations have been supplied for review, and paper work requesting archival of products being prepared. (J. Knaff)

An updated version of the Wind Radii CLIPER Model was developed for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).  The modification allows for the production of wind radii forecasts in the North Indian Ocean and the entire Southern Hemisphere. Climatological coefficients were adapted from other basins to accomplish this task.  The request was made by JTWC because this model is the only tropical cyclone wind radii guidance available at JTWC and such capabilities did not exist in these basins. (J. Knaff)

The track and intensity forecast error distributions utilized by NHC’s operational wind probability model were updated to include data from the 2008 season and remove data from the 2003 season. The model uses the previous 5 years of errors in a Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the probabilities of 34, 50 and 64 kt wind out to 5 days, and a number of operational products are derived from the output.  A version is also run by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). These new distributions were provided to NHC and JTWC for use during the 2009 hurricane and typhoon seasons. (J. Knaff)

A simple GOES water vapor advection scheme was developed for potential use in a project to extend the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product time range from 24 to 48 hours.  Verification shows that the advected water vapor brightness temperatures (BT) match the observed BT better than persistence (the method the current TCFP uses) out to 42 hour over a one month sample of GOES-E & simulated ABI data, however the R2 values drop off significantly after 6-12 hours (Figure 1).  This suggests that the extended TCFP will have to rely more heavily on GFS forecast-based parameters and have less reliance on satellite-based convective parameters than the current product.  Work continues on development of the longer-range TCFP product.  (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria)

Figure 1.  Verification of a simple GOES-E water vapor brightness temperature advection scheme and persistance with simulated ABI water vapor brightness temperatures at forecast times 0, 6, …, 48 h and from 8 S to 51 N at 37.5 W (longitude at midpoint between GOES-E and MSG).

Data collection needed to extend the TCFP product to the Indian Ocean and S. Hemisphere, hence making it global tropics product, is complete.  Both northern and southern hemisphere geostationary satellite water vapor imagery from Meteosat-5&7 and Meteosat-9, southern hemisphere scans from GOES-W and MTSAT-1R, and Indian Ocean and S. Hemisphere best tracks have been obtained and algorithm development is currently underway. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Scripts to create simulated ABI imagery-based RedGreenBlue RGB dust and airmass products were written.  These products will be generated in real-time and displayed on a secure web site in the next quarter. (J. Knaff)

A new lightning dataset was obtained from Vaisala for the 2008 Atlantic tropical cyclone basin.  Their data will be compared to the WWLN lightning data to see which is better to use for GOES-R demonstrations. (M. DeMaria, R. DeMaria)

J. Knaff attended the International Best Track and Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS; http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ibtracs/) workshop held at NCDC in Asheville NC, where he gave an invited presentation on tropical cyclone pressure-wind relationships and presented a poster on Dvorak calibration.  The purpose of the meetings was to discuss ways to enhance the current IBTrACS dataset, which is a collection of global tropical cyclone best tracks from tropical cyclone warning centers, national agencies, and regional meteorological specialized centres (RMSCs).  Recommendations were also made to the NCDC IBTrACS team as to how IBTrACS  dataset can be improved through coordination with the RMSCs and the WMO tropical cyclone program.  These enhancements, it is thought, will better facilitate future efforts to create a global tropical cyclone reanalysis. Workshop presentations will be made available on the internet in the coming days. (J. Knaff)

M. DeMaria traveled to Miami, FL to attend the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Verification and Diagnostics Workshop held at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). He co-hosted the meeting with Naomi Surgi from NCEP/EMC and Richard Pasch from NHC. M. DeMaria gave a presentation on the RAMMB contributions to the HFIP diagnostics effort and led all of the discussion sections.  M. DeMaria attended the HFIP High Resolution Hurricane (HRH) modeling workshop on Thu-Fri. and gave a presentation at that meeting on a HFIP-funded study to use the NHC wind probability model to estimate the economic value of improved track and intensity forecasts. This presentation satisfied one of the HFIP Annual Management Contract (AMC) Milestones. The results from that study will also be presented by NHC at the upcoming Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference. (M. DeMaria)

Real-time diagnostics coming from the Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone-Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) were made available to C. Mattocks (UNC) for his real-time storm surge modeling efforts.  The files contain location, maximum winds, MSLP, SLP@600km, and 34, 50, and 64-kt wind radii and are available at ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/knaff/RMS/ where they are updated every six hours.   (J. Knaff)

COMET staff conducted a phone interview with Dan Bikos, John Knaff and Jeff Braun regarding the development of a training module entitled “Atmospheric Sounding with High Temporal & Spectral Resolution: Critical Observations for Climate, Water, and Weather.” (J. Knaff)

The STIPS developmental dataset was sent to H-C Kuo (Taiwan National Univ.) for his examination of SST and vertical wind shear associated with Typhoons that undergo secondary eyewall formation. (J. Knaff)

Six-hourly surface wind analyses associated with Tropical Cyclone Nargis (IO0108) were provided to  G. Foltz (U. Washington/PMEL) who is developing an oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis for that case.  The wind fields were created by the experimental Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Analysis developed and currently run at CIRA/RAMMB.  The cyclone occurred in late April/ early May in the Bay of Bengal and is notable its storm surge that over eighty thousand people in Myanmar. (J. Knaff)

Software in the form of FORTRAN 90 subroutines that calculate tropical cyclone Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) from Maximum Surface Winds (MSW) and MSW from MSLP estimates was provided to C. Landsea (NHC), J. Courtney (BOM) and B. Sampson (NRL).  (J. Knaff)

Verification of AMSU and Dvorak Tropical Cyclone intensity estimates were provided to K. Payne and E. Fukada (JTWC).  The verifications were homogeneous, occurring within 2 hours of each other and of aircraft center fixes, and were stratified by intensity and intensity trends.  Results will help forecasters better use the various intensity estimates in operations.   (J. Knaff)

J. Knaff provided editorial assistance and a review to K. Bessho (MRI, Japan), a recent CIRA visiting scientist, for his soon to be submitted paper discussing methods to better utilize AMSU-based temperature information in discriminating between developing and non-developing cloud clusters (i.e., tropical cyclone genesis/formation (J. Knaff)

Software that limb corrects raw AMSU antenna temperature data was provided to to S. Guimond (FSU) for his work with Hurricane Dennis (2005).  (J. Knaff)

Tropical cyclone IR imagery of Hurricane Georges (1998) and Typhoon Jangmi (2008) were provided to Lt. Col. N. Sanger (NPS) for his dissertation work.  (J. Knaff)

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for January, February, March and April of 2009.  The processing should be caught up by beginning of next quarter. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for January, February, March and April of 2009 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for January, February, March and April of 2009. (C. Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive has been completed for July-August 2002 and May-July 2003.  That completes the task.  (C. Combs)

We continue to work with Treena Hartley, Joe Clark and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service(NWS) office, and Becca Mazur now with Cheyenne, WY NWS office. We have had three telecons this quarter to discuss progress and project needs. We also discussed various ways to remove synopically driven days from the climatology data set.  (C. Combs)

Eureka sector images for 12 UTC  in McIdas format were converted into GeoTiff for all days in the test period (May-Sep, 1999-2007).  Joe Clark is currently running the data through their system to determine marine stratus depth.  (C. Combs)

Pulled MSG data for December 2005 and sectored out European sector.  Produced cloud products for March.  Analyzed the snow/cloud data produced for February with new algorithm.  Additional checks to algorithm to correctly identify high ice clouds were added. February and March products were rerun, and products for December using updated algorithm were run. (C. Combs)

Figure: Cloud cover percent over Europe at 1115 UTC during March 2007 produced using MSG data. (C.Combs)

A first version of the statistical hail prediction algorithm is now running in real-time.  The figure below shows an example of the output; the colors represent the probability of severe hail (>0.75 inch diameter) within a 0.5×0.5 degree lat/lon box within the next 1 hour.  Inputs to the algorithm include GOES 10.7 µm data, surface analyses from the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) surface mesoanalysis, and climatology.  Current work includes extending the probability forecasts to times beyond 0-1 hours, and future work involves making a similar product for high wind and tornadoes.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  Probability of severe hail within each 0.5×0.5 degree lat/lon box between 2300 UTC on 15 May 2009 and 0000 UTC on 16 May 2009.

Imagery was post processed for the Redoubt Volcano eruption on 23 March 2009.  The 4-panel display in the attached Figure used Principal Component Imagery (PCI) to created image differences from all 5 bands of GOES data.  The lower-right panel shows the ash plume as dark, as opposed to the associated white cloud signature in the upper-left panel.  These images were about 4 hours after the initial eruption.  An image loop of this case is available, as well as a loop of color combinations of some of the PCIs.  This image product is being run in real-time mode on RAMSDIS stations at CIRA, and is available, along with other image products, on RAMSDIS online at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-west_goes-east.asp  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: Four-panel image of GOES band differences showing various renditions of the ash plume at 1015 UTC, about 4 hours after the first eruption.  The location of the Mt. Redoubt is given on each panel.  The plume is blowing to the northwest of the source, with the best indications of the ash (in black) in the lower-right panel, as opposed to the associated cloud (in white) in the upper-left panel.

D. Lindsey visited the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from May 26-29 as part of the GOES-R Proving Ground.  CIRA is providing an experimental statistical hail prediction algorithm to be tested, so the visit involved helping to display and evaluate both this product and others from CIMSS and SPoRT.  (D. Lindsey)

Work was completed on a GOES-R ABI algorithm which retrieves thick ice cloud effective radius.  Using 2.25 µm is an advantage over 3.9 µm because 1) the emitted component is negligible at 2.25 µm, and 2) the error in the retrieval is smaller for the larger ice sizes (see the figure below).  When we begin receiving GOES-R ABI data, we will be able to immediately turn on this algorithm to retrieve ice crystal effective radius.  (D. Lindsey, L. Grasso)

Figure: Results from a thick ice cloud effective radius retrieval using 3.9 µm (red) and the ABI’s 2.25 µm band (blue).  Note that the blue line is more sloped at effective radius values between 30 and 40 µm, meaning a reduced error compared to 3.9 µm.

Work on the“Kyrill” case continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding location. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. Last quarter, a paper entitled “Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method” has been submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. (D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria)
This quarter we learned that the paper was accepted with minor revision. Data assimilation experiments have begun with observed MSG-1 data. (L. Grasso)

Synthetic imagery for the 27 June 2005 thunderstorm case was redone due to an error in the code for 2.25 µm. This data will serve as proxy data under the AWG project for convective initiation purposes. Last quarter a manuscript entitled, “An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation” was submitted to the International Journal of Remote Sensing. This paper is still in the review process. Results from this work were presented in an oral presentation given by L. Grasso at the 23rd conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 19th conference on Numerical Weather Prediction in Omaha, Nebraska during the first week of June 2009. (L. Grasso, D. Lindsey)

Last quarter, L. Grasso obtained MODIS 16-day white sky albedoes from Crystal Schaaf, MODIS project leader in this area. Our first GOES-R ABI true color image compares well to the MODIS images.  Some issues remain and they relate to using a lookup table to acquire the green GOES-R band and the Reyleigh correction to each synthetic image. This quarter, an idealized smoke plume was added into the clear sky image over southern California. This is our first step at adding an aerosol into a synthetic image (L. Grasso, D.  Hillger, and M. Sengupta)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. Isidora Jankov is leading this effort. Results from this work are discussed in a recently prepared manuscript entitled, “An Evaluation of Various WRF-ARW Microphysics Using Simulated GOES Imagery for an Atmospheric River Event Affecting the California Coast”. This manuscript will be submitted for peer-review. (I. Jankov, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, Paul J. Neiman, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, D. Lindsey, and R. Brummer)

Last quarter, Isidora Jankov continued to help L. Grasso to run wrf_3.0.1. With her help, a simulation with three two-way interactive nested grids was run. In this case, all three grids were initialized at time zero. The next step was to spawn grid 4 at a time that is different from the initial time. This simulation is of the 24 April 2004 Central American fire event. This case was run with RAMS and then this time with WRF-ARW version 3.0.1. Synthetic GOES-R imagery was made at 3.9, 10.35, and 11.2 µm. (L. Grasso and I. Jankov)

Collaboration continues with Martin Setvak of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. A paper is being written discussing “cold ring” thunderstorms.  RAMS was run with different temperature structures at the tropopause to offer a possible explanation of satellite observed cold ring thunderstorms. (L. Grasso and D. Lindsey)

D. Molenar traveled to the Cheyenne, WY Forecast Office to assist with the installation of the Satellite Proving Ground GeoColor product on main FO AWIPS workstations. (D. Molenar)

In collaboration with Mike Fromm (NRL) and others, a project continues in which historical fire-induced thunderstorm events (pyroCbs) are documented and studied.  Most recently, thanks to data from GOES-7, four events (1989 in Manitoba, 1990 in Alaska, 1991 in Quebec, and 1992 in Idaho) have been identified which sent large amounts of aerosols into the lower stratosphere.  Previous papers have attributed spikes in stratospheric aerosols (as detected by satellite) to volcanic eruptions, but we’ve shown quite convincingly that these spikes were actually due to these four pyroCb events.  A publication to BAMS documenting this finding is currently in the works.  The image below is a 3.9 micron image from GOES-7 showing one of the events from 21 August 1992.  (D. Lindsey)

Figure.  GOES-7 3.9 micron image from 21 August 1992 at 2331 UTC.  White dots represent hot spots/fires, and the location of the PyroCb is denoted.

During the VORTEX-II field experiment (10 May – 13 June), D. Lindsey called a number of Super Raid Scan Operations (SRSO) in order to assist the forecasters in quickly identifying storms, and so that the data may be used in post-experiment analysis.  All of the data has been archived at CIRA.  (D. Lindsey, D. Bikos)

A NASA “Earth System Science Advances” Live Streaming broadcast on 24 June included an animated loop of CIRA’s Blowing Dust product, which is also a contribution to the Proving Ground effort from CIRA.  Three Blowing-Dust Product loops were provided to Thomas Painter, Director, Snow Optics Laboratory and Assistant Professor, Department of Geography University of Utah, Salt Lake City UT.  Dr. Painter included one of the loops in his live online presentation.  The presentation titled “Where Deserts and Mountains Collide: Snowmelt and Disturbed Desert Dust” is available online at http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/ess20_research_painter.html  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: CIRA’s Blowing-Dust “Proving Ground” Product with a modified color table (based on user feedback) and thick clouds (masked in white).  Blowing-dust of increasing density/thickness is displayed in orange, red, and purple (very few pixels).  The dust originates in the lee of the Mogollon Rim and affects the four-corners area and thus parts of 4 southwestern states.

The Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis for satellite imagery developed at CIRA, has been submitted to D. Santek, a primary McIDAS programmer, to be tested as a candidate for McIDAS XRD (user-submitted experimental code that is available to other McIDAS users).  A request for the PCI code has been made by another University of Wisconsin researcher after being successfully used by M. Lazzara for his analysis of MODIS imagery over Antarctica.   (D. Hillger)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

22 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 32 teletraining signups, 104 students participated.

            New teletraining sessions that debuted this quarter:

• “An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Track Guidance Models used by NHC” by Chris Landsea and Jaime Rhome (NCEP / NHC), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) and Andrea Schumacher (CIRA).     
• “An Overview of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Models used by NHC” by Chris Landsea and Jaime Rhome (NCEP / NHC), and Mark DeMaria (NESDIS) and Andrea Schumacher (CIRA). 
• Learning Management System (LMS) audio / video playback modules:

Registrations:  111

            Completions:  64

LMS totals from January 2005 through June 18 2009:

Registrations:  2263

Completions: 1130

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a quiz for a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

            New audio / video playback modules that debuted this quarter:

• “AWIPS OB9 Blended TPW Products” by Ross Van Til (FDTB).     

Ongoing development of new VISIT training sessions:

• Water vapor imagery / jet streak analysis for severe thunderstorm forecasting (D. Bikos).
• Basic satellite interpretation in the tropics (D. Bikos). 
• The use of GOES satellite imagery with all other available datasets to analyze and forecast severe weather associated with the Dryline (J. Braun).

Research:

• D. Bikos is collaborating with Jonathan Finch (NWSFO Dodge City, KS) to publish a paper titled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  The topic is based on a conference presentation and seminar.
• Some of the social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case are also being explored.  J. Braun is helping with this cause and just finished organizing and attending a meeting with the local/regional Emergency Managers as well as the executive director of LETA (Larimer Emergency Telephone Authority) for some input concerning short fuse warnings and the use of the Emergency Notification System (ENS). (December 10, 2008)
• Helping with the operational as well as social aspects of the May 22, 2008 tornado case (Windsor Colorado).  The work is focused on the production of a conference paper titled, “The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado Tornado: Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and the Communication of Weather Information.”  Lead author, Russ S. Schumacher, will deliver a version of this study at several different conferences.  Others in group:  Steve Miller, Andrea Schumacher and Dan Lindsey.
• J. Dostalek is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in ongoing research regarding analysis of water vapor imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.  This will be submitted later to the NWA as this was where the original paper and concept was introduced some 30 years ago.
• Discussion continues on “Quantitative Northeast Pacific Cyclone Analysis…” as well as “COSMIC/Ozone Data Analysis.” Both topics are being developed for future paper/VISIT session consideration.
• D. Bikos assisted D. Lindsey in coordinating GOES-11 Super Rapid Scan Operations during the VORTEX-2 field project.

Media:

D. Bikos was asked to comment on an article in the Milwaukee-Sentinel, the story can be found here:  http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/48735002.html

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through June 25, 2009:
• 9601 total hits.
• Currently averaging about 29 hits per day.

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – June 24, 2009.  The participant count is collected after each teletraining session, the student is mailed a certificate of completion if they reply to an evaluation email with names.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

(D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Development of new SHyMet training sessions:

• Finished “Intro to Aviation Hazards/Weather.” (J. Braun) 
• Continuing development of the “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD). (J. Braun)
• Developing web pages and student guide for the upcoming SHyMet for Forecasters course. (D. Bikos and J. Braun)
• Satellite cloud climatology training session. (B. Connell and D. Bikos)
• “Intro to GOES-R.” (B. Connell)
• Dvorak technique training completed. (M. DeMaria, R. Zehr)

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through June 25, 2009: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

193 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (8 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Development Plan composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).

23 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (0 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through June 25, 2009 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2623

Total Registered for All SHyMet Classes for 3rd Quarter 2009 – 178

Total Completed SHyMet Classes for 3rd Quarter 2009 – 127 (127/178 = 71%)

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 3rd Quarter 2009 –
4 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class (SHyMet Course) Metrics – Number Registered through LMS:

1. Orientation:  358 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 19 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  316 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 17 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  335 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
4. POES…:  295 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 18 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  239 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  235 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 21 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  244 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 21 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  278 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 22 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  321 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 20 this quarter.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.  (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Evelyn Quirós from the National Meteorological Service (IMN) in Costa Rica visited CIRA on May 15.  Evelyn has been involved in the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities and in other training activities in Central America.  We discussed coordinated training activities including installation of VISITview server and future training opportunities, as well as research directed at satellite climatologies.  (B. Connell)

Vilma Castro from the University of Costa Rica visited CIRA on June 18.  Vilma has been involved with WMO’s Regional Training Center in Costa Rica since 1994 and with the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities of the Americas and the Caribbean since its inception in 2004.  We discussed coordinated training activities to further involve students in the Virtual Laboratory. (B. Connell)

Visitor from Brazil: 
Luciane Veeck with INPE in Brazil visited CIRA on June 23 to participate in a virtual monthly meeting of the Focus Group of the Americas and the Caribbean and find out about other training activities at CIRA.  Luciane was recently selected as the Technical Support Officer to provide support for the WMO Virtual Laboratory for Satellites.  (Connell)

Monthly International Weather Briefings:
The WMO Virtual Laboratory Regional Focus Group of the Americas and Caribbean conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for April, May, and June 2009) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/focusgroup.asp ) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, NWS Training Division,  the NWS International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay,  Trinidad, Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 25 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison from the NWS International Desk at NCEP started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  The discussions focused on indicators of the transitioning seasons in the tropics and southern hemisphere.  In April, Gabriela Mora-Rojas, a student at CSU and a native of Costa Rica, gave a presentation on features of the Low Level Jets in the Tropical Americas.  In June, Daniel Vila, originally from Argentina and now at the Cooperative Institute of Climate Studies (CICS), gave a presentation on Rainfall Retrieval Techniques using Meteorological Satellites.  (Connell)

Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to introduce forecasters in training to the operational forecasters from the region and to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products:
GOES-12 imagery for March through May 2009 were processed for the Regional Training Centers (RTC) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for March through May 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in the following figure. Click on image to enlarge. 

Monthly cloud frequency composites for March, April, and May 1997-2009 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for March through May 1999-2009 for Barbados is shown in the following figure.  Click on image to enlarge.

Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for March, April, and May 1999-2009 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean have been consolidated and updated.  The RAMSDIS Online imagery can now be viewed at one location (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).  This step was a welcome upgrade to the International Weather Briefings page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visitview/focus/viewgroup.html), allowing for viewing of higher resolution imagery as well as increased speed for the download of imagery. 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/  (B. Connell, D. Coleman, D. Watson, K. Micke)

With the launch of GOES-O on 26 June, a new baseline plan for the launch and Post Launch Test (PLT) events has been posted on the GOES-O Science Test website http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/goes-o/.  See the material dated “2009 June 25”.  The new schedule calls for the following (among other things): First Public Imager Full Disk Images – 2009-07-27; First Public IR Image – 2009-08-16; First part of NOAA Science Test – 2009-11-30 to 2009-12-14.  (D. Hillger)

New NOAAPORT ingest system has been brought online.  All RAMMB AWIPS workstations have been configured to run AWIPS Build 9.  7 TB RAID array has been configured.  The system will serve McIDAS and polar data sets for in-house use. (D. Molenar)

H. Gosden and D. Molenar successfully installed Geo-color products at NWS Forecast Offices in Boulder and Cheyenne.  (H. Gosden) 

H. Gosden is developing a remote installation procedure that would allow remote sites to install CIRA developed products onto their AWIPS systems.  (H. Gosden) 

H. Gosden has implemented the modifications needed in the Geo-color product color table.  (H. Gosden) 

A host of systems were procured to replace outdated workstations, and a RAMMB travel NetBook was ordered to replace the outdated Dell laptop system. (H. Gosden)

Published:

• Refereed

Knaff, J.A., 2009: Revisiting the Maximum Intensity of Recurving Tropical Cyclones.  Published on-line http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/4735/home,  Int. J. Climatology, 29, 827-837.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2009: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part I:  Control Forecasts Based on Climatology and Persistence. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58, 1, 1-7.

Knaff, J.A., and C.R. Sampson, 2009: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part II:   Statistical – Dynamical Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58, 1, 9-18.

Sampson, C.R. and J.A. Knaff, 2009: Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Methods Used at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Part III:   Statistical – Consensus Forecasts.  Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 58, 1, 19-27.

• Nonrefereed

Schumacher, R.S., D.T. Lindsey, A. B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. D. Miller, and J. Demuth, 2009: The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado tornado: Analysis of meteorological conditions and the communication of weather information.  23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting /19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.  1-9 June 2009, Omaha, NE.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

*Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2009:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

DeMaria, M., J.A. Knaff, R. Knabb, C. Lauer, C.R. Sampson, R.T. DeMaria, 2009:  A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Weather and Forecasting.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2009:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing.  In press.

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2009: The GOES-13 Science Test. A Synopsis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 6-11.

Mazur, R.J., J.F.Weaver, T.H. Vonder Haar, 2009:  A preliminary statistical study of correlations between inflow feeder clouds, supercell or multicell thunderstorms, and severe weather.  Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2009:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

*The manuscript “Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain)” by Cesar Azorin-Molina, Bernadette Connell, and Rafael Baena-Calatrava has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.  Dr. Azorin-Molina visited CIRA during the summer of 2006 to collaborate with scientists on the use of NOAA-16 and 17 imagery in creating a stratified cloud climatology for regions in Spain.  (B. Connell)

• Nonrefereed

DeMaria, M., 2009: Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Lightning Observations.  Southern Thunder Workshop, 28-30 July, Cocoa Beach, FL.

Submitted:

• Refereed

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2009:  Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Pressure-Wind Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres.  Australian Meteorological Magazine.

Grasso, L.D., D.W. Hillger, M. Sengupta, 2009:  Demonstrating the Utility of the GOES-R 2.25 µm band for Fire Retrieval. Geophysical Research Letters.

Grasso, L.D., and D.T. Lindsey, 2009: An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation. International Journal of Remote Sensing.

Zupanski, D., 2009: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, M., 2009: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski, M., D. Zupanski, S. J. Fletcher, M. DeMaria, and R. Dumais, 2009: A method for error covariance localization in ensemble data assimilation. Tellus A, (Submitted, revised)

Zupanski, D., M. Zupanski, L. Grasso, R. Brummer, I. Jankov, D. Lindsey, M. Sengupta and M. DeMaria, 2009: Assimilating synthetic GOES-R radiances in cloudy conditions using an ensemble-based method.  International Journal of Remote Sensing.  (Submitted revised).

Nonrefereed 

Awards:

M. DeMaria received a NOPP Excellence in Partnership Award for his role in the Multi-sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature (MISST) for GODAE. This was part of a group award for a project lead by Chelle Gentemann from Remote Sensing Systems. M. DeMaria’s contribution was testing of a new ocean cooling parameterization and evaluation of the high resolution SST analyses in the SHIPS tropical cyclone intensity model.

Colorado State University Master’s student Darren Van Cleave tied for first place for the best MS/BS poster presentation at the AMS 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.  Darren’s work “Relating snowfall patterns over the central and eastern US to infrared imagery of extratropical cyclone comma heads” is part of the winter weather component of CIRA/RAMMB’s GIMPAP contribution. 

Presentations:

DeMaria, M., B. McNoldy, 2009: Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF Model. HFIP Diagnostics Workshop, 5 May, Miami. FL

DeMaria, M., A. Schumacher, D. Brown, E. Rappaport, 2009: Evaluating the Impact of Improved Track and Intensity Forecasts on Hurricane Watches and Warnings.High Resolution Hurricane Workshop, 7 May, Miami, FL.

Knaff, J.A. 2009:  Understanding and (possibly) rectifying historical and regional wind-pressure relationship differences.  International Best Track And Climate Stewardship Workshop (IBTrACS) Workshop, 5-7 May, Ashville, NC.

Knaff, J.A., D. Brown, J. Courtney, M. Gallina, 2009:  An Evaluation of Biases and Errors Associated with the Subjective Dvorak Technique 1989-2007. International Best Track and Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Workshop, 5-7 May, Ashville, NC.

Grasso, L.D., 2009: An example of the use of synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 imagery for two-moment microphysical evaluation.. 23rd conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and 19th conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 1-9 June, Omaha, NE.

On April 1, 2009, L. Grasso gave a presentation to 3rd graders at Bauder Elemetary School in Fort Collins.

D. Hillger was invited by Maury Pautz, former Meteorologist in Charge at the Denver NWS Office, to give a presentation at the Rocky Mountain Stamp show on 15 May.  The presentation included information on the history of weather satellites as well as other environmental and scientific satellites.  Imagery ranging from the first crude TIROS image to 30-second interval loops of GOES-13 rapid-scan imagery was shown. 

Schumacher, R.S., D.T. Lindsey, A.B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S.D. Miller, and J. Demuth, 2009: The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado tornado: Analysis of meteorological conditions and the communication of weather information.  23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting /19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.  1-9 June 2009, Omaha, NE.

Brennan, M.J., D.P. Brown, R. D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, A.B. Schumacher, and J.A. Knaff, 2009: Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities: Operational results and future applications.  23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction.  1-9 June 2009, Omaha, NE.

Mary Kicza, the NESDIS AA, visited CIRA on the morning of May 27th. Renate Brummer from CIRA escorted Mary to and from Boulder. Mary was given an overview briefing on CIRA and the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, and participated in a short question and answer session. She also participated in the CIRA advisory council meeting. The two primary issues discussed were the future plans for a NOAA operational ocean surface wind mission, and the methods by which new satellite products are developed and transitioned to operations. Mary asked specific questions about the procedures and problems encountered during the transition of recent hurricane forecast products through the Joint Hurricane Testbed, and through the PSDI process. The differences between the funding mechanisms for applied research for the polar and GOES programs were also contrasted. It was pointed out that the GOES program has funding opportunities through the GIMPAP and GOES-R Risk Reduction programs, but the POES and NPOESS programs do not.  (M. DeMaria)

Bob Rabin from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) visited CIRA on May 22 to discuss research interactions on severe weather. Bob is involved in the GIMPAP, GOES-R and Proving Ground projects, and plans for coordination during the upcoming year were discussed.

Evelyn Quirós from the National Meteorological Service (IMN) in Costa Rica visited CIRA on May 15.  Evelyn has been involved in the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities and in other training activities in Central America.  E. Quiros and B. Connell discussed coordinated training activities including installation of VISITview server and future training opportunities, as well as research directed at satellite climatologies. 

Mike Kalb, the new StAR Deputy Director, visited CIRA on Monday, April 27th. An overview of RAMMB and CIRA was provided and individual meetings with RAMMB staff were held. The meetings were very productive and helped RAMMB staff become acquainted with Mike’s background, and bring him up to speed on RAMMB research.

D. Hillger was invited by Maury Pautz, former Meteorologist in Charge at the Denver NWS Office, to give a presentation at the Rocky Mountain Stamp show on 15 May. The presentation included information on the history of weather satellites as well as other environmental and scientific satellites. Imagery ranging from the first crude TIROS image to 30-second interval loops of GOES-13 rapid-scan imagery was shown. (D. Hillger)

The NESDIS Cooperative Institute Directors’ and Administrators’ Meetings were held at CIRA on June 16-17th. The meeting included presentations, discussions and a summary of action items. An informal web page is being created to post the presentations and the meeting summary material. (M. DeMaria, K. Fryer)

D. Lindsey (co-chair) participated remotely in an ICAPOP meeting on 14 May.  (D. Lindsey)

D. Hillger was captain of the 4-man “Weathermen” Bocce Ball team that played on 21 June as a benefit for Fort Collins CO Meals on Wheels (MOW) held at City Park.  The best part was that the “Weatherman” WON the tournament championship after playing 7 games, in a field of 44 teams that started play.   Most of us are drivers as well for MOW, each taking an hour one day a week to deliver meals to those in need.  Another driver was unable to play, but contributed to the tournament as well.  (D. Hillger, D. Reinke, P. Partain, A. Carheden, and J. Forsythe)

All RAMMB employees completed their mid-year reviews with M. DeMaria. Also, all RAMMB employees, including M. DeMaria, got their new CAC government badges from Warren Air Force Base in Cheyenne, WY. (M. DeMaria)

M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, D. Lindsey and D. Hillger from RAMMB and A. Schumacher, C. Combs, S. Kidder and J. Forsythe from CIRA participated in the 2-hour SPSRB training via teleconference. (M. DeMaria)