Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product has been running in pre-operational mode since July 2008.  Promotion to operational status has been delayed due to a freeze instated on all sateps machines in July.  The TCFP product has run smoothly in pre-operational mode since July and is currently being quality controlled and monitored by the ESPC help desk.  All documentation has been finalized and turned in.  Promotion to operational status should occur very shortly after the system freeze is lifted, which is estimated to occur at the end of September. (A. Schumacher, M. DeMaria, J. Knaff)

Figure 1:  The TCFP product for the Western N. Pacific domain prior to (left) and after (right) the formation of WP192008 Typhoon Jangmi. 

In an effort to improve the tropical cyclone formation probability guidance product, large-scale vertical motion will be added as an additional screening parameter, and its affect on the skill of the forecast measured.  The large scale vertical motion field will come from a Q-vector form of the omega equation valid over the entire sphere, which will use the GFS model fields as input.  The computation of the Q-vectors has been completed.  The next step will be to solve the omega equation over the entire sphere using a vertical normal mode and a spherical harmonic transform. (J. Dostalek)

Progress continues on the operational transition and continued development of the Mult-platfom Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA).  This quarter most of the progress has been in two key areas 1) preparation for transition to operations and 2) expansion of uses and customer base.  To prepare for the operational transition of the product to the National Satellite Operations Facility (NSOF) a Critical Design Review (CDR) was presented and a sizing requirement submitted.   These steps are designed to improve planning encouraging interactions between all parties involved.  Several potential logistic problems were solved by the CDR.

Another preparation for operational transition to NSOF was the local development of a dedicated MTC-SWA web page.  The currently experimental product creates satellite based surface wind analyses for global tropical cyclones, including areas under investigation according to the Tropical Prediction Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.  Archival of this product continues on the RAMMB TC web page/database.  The web page can be found at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/mtc_swa/.  

In the last quarter we have also been trying to build the potential customer base for this project.  In this endeavor we have made these resulting surface wind analyses available as a text file.   One private company, World Winds Inc. has been using our wind fields as a nudging influence to their nowcasting tools.  Those tools provide off-shore wind information to XM satellite subscribers.  Another potential use is to provide simple information as to how to rotate the microwave input to the Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP) product that is undergoing development.  Our solution was to calculate the vortex Rossby wave  propogation speeds (n=2,k=2) given the azimuthal mean wind field.  An example is shown below (Figure 2) for Hurricane Gustav 1 September at 06 UTC. (J. Knaff)

Figure 2:  Radial profile of azimuthally averaged radial (Ur) and tangential (Vt) winds from the MTC-SWA and the radial (U_band) and tangential (V_band) propogation speeds of vortex Rossby waves with radial and azimuthal wavenumbers equal to 2.

A new AMSU-based real-time experimental tropical cyclone product is being created.  The product makes use of the wind fields derived as part of the CIRA/RAMMB AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm run at NCEP (i.e., by solving the non-linear balance equation).  Using these wind fields that are created on standard pressure levels for every tropical cyclone viewing opportunity, two estimates of the vertical wind shear and two estimates of mass-weighted deep-layer mean steering flow are created.  Often the latest estimates of these quantities are available before the GFS analyses become available in operations, and therefore may be useful for nowcasting subtle changes in the TC environment.  An annotated example of the product is shown below (Figure 3) for Hurricane Bertha (2008).  In that figure notice: 1) that the maximum intensity corresponds to the storm dramatically slowing down in an already low vertical shear environment, 2) the deep and shallow layer mean steering captures the near stationary nature of the storm on the 12-13 July, 3) at the point of recurvature the steering directions are nearly exactly 180 degrees, and 4) other intensity maxima associated with this long-lived tropical cyclone occurred during periods when the vertical shear is decreasing.  Plots like the one below will be generated in a real-time manner and then displayed and archived on the RAMMB tropical cyclone web page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/index.asp).    For further information on these vertical shear estimates, see Zehr et al. (2008); http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/137917.pdf.  (J. Knaff, R. Zehr, K. Micke)

Figure 3: AMSU-based estimates of vertical wind shear and mean steering flow for Hurricane Bertha that has been annotated to show key events in Bertha’s history.  Shown are 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear speed and direction (top panel), 500-850 hPa vertical wind shear speed and direction (second panel), 200-850 hPa mass-weighted mean wind speed and direction (third panel),  500-850 hPa mass-weighted mean wind speed and direction (bottom panel),  All calculations are based on averages of AMSU-based wind fields within 600 km of the tropical cyclone center.

New NOAA-16 AMSU temperature retrieval coefficients were provided by M. Goldberg, C. Barnet, and Z. Chen(SMCD) to account for the intermittent failure of channel 4, which began in March.  The coefficients allow for temperature retrievals over tropical cyclones and provide the basis for tropical cyclone intensity and structure estimates.   Currently the NOAA-16 –based tropical cyclone intensity and structure estimates have been adversely impacted by the channel 4 failure, resulting in a dramatic decrease in the number of TC fixes from NOAA-16 as well as a noticeable decrease in accuracy of the fixes that do occur.  The new coefficients have been tested both at CIRA and TPC.  The new coefficients also required small changes in the operational code run at NCEP.  The new coefficients and software were provided to NCEP Central Operations for implementation on the NCEP supercomputer and were implemented on 16 September following Hurricane Ike.   This has already resulted in a noticeable increase in the number of fixes. (J. Knaff)

There was a plenary meeting to discuss various options for setting up a polar data server at CIRA.    RAMMB has plans to begin pulling MIRS, IASI, SSMI and ATOVS data to support hurricane research, and to support a polar data server at CIRA.  A centralized, near-realtime polar data server, with http, ftp, McIDAS server and LDM (for AWIPS feeds) access, and automated data subset archive, will be highly beneficial to research at CIRA.  This data will also be a valuable resource for blended product development, Satellite Algorithm Testbed work, and for AWIPS Proving Ground product evaluation.  The eventual goal will be to provide a robust server, RAID storage (with fail-safe backup) and a set of access routines that would be available to all CIRA and NOAA researchers and clients.  Phase I will involve the set up of a RAMMB server and RAID array to create the DDS MIRS, IASI, SSMI and ATOVS data archive.   This will get us ready for NPP and NPOES. (J. Knaff)

Three consecutive daylight periods (10-12 September; 12 UTC- 00 UTC) of SRSO imagery were collected over Hurricane Ike using the operational GOES-W satellite.  The purpose was to attempt to capture either or both a period of rapid intensification or of secondary eyewall formation.  This unique dataset does show the slow demise of the small remnant eye over the three day period and the strengthening and reorganization of the storm near landfall. Loops of the visible albedo product are available from  ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/knaff/IKE/vis/avi.  (J. Knaff)

Work continues on calibrating the World Wide Lightning Locator Network (WWLLN) dataset for use in the GOES-R Risk Reduction tropical cyclone project.  We have successfully converted the WWLLN count data to flashes/km²/year for comparison to the TRMM dataset.   We discovered that over the entire WWLLN dataset period (August 2003 – December 2007) for latitudes between 50ºS and 50ºN, the average flash density is 57 times smaller than the TRMM dataset (April 1995 – December 2005) over the same area.  When this scaling is applied, the general patterns between the TRMM and WWLLN data are similar as shown in Figures 1 and 2 below, providing some confidence in the use of the WWLLN data. (R. DeMaria)

Figure 1: A plot of the TRMM flash density dataset for April 1995 – December 2005

Figure 2: A scaled plot of the WWLLN flash density dataset for August 2003 – December 2007 (Scale Factor: 57)

We have found that the quality of the WWLLN dataset is highly dependent upon the activation of WWLLN sensors.  More lightning strikes are recorded near active WWLLN sensors.  These sensors have been activated over the course of the WWLLN dataset’s lifetime.  For example, Figures. 3 and 4 compare the scaled lightning density over the Atlantic for Jan of 2004 and Feb 2007 that were generated as part of a study of the influence of the Gulfstream on the atmosphere. The large differences in the distributions are due to the limited sensors available in 2004.

Figure 3: WWLLN Jan 2004 flash density data subset scaled by 7340 to match average TRMM flash density

Figure 4: WWLLN Feb 2007 flash density data subset scaled by 57 to match average TRMM flash density

The fact that the WWLLN dataset improves over time leads us to conclude that it is necessary to compute monthly calibrations for the WWLLN dataset.  The generation of these monthly calibrations will be the next step on this project.  Calibrations associated with a monthly time period as well as a spatial subset of the WWLLN dataset may also be useful.  Future work will be devoted to generating calibrations that vary with time and space. (R. DeMaria)

J. Knaff made a formal request to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to provide a statistical evaluation of the wind radii and MSLP provided by the Multi-Platform  Tropical Cyclone – Surface Wind Project (MTC-SWP, a current PSDI project) for all storms advised upon during the 1 September – 31 December period. (J. Knaff)

CIRA and RAMMB co-hosted a tropical cyclone research interaction between CIRA, RAMMB, CSU and NCAR tropical cyclone researchers.   Topics discussed and participants are listed below.  Another workshop is tentatively planned for December 2008 at NCAR.  (J. Knaff)

High resolution (1km from AVHRR and MODIS) infrared imagery from Hurricane Katrina (2005), which  was collected as part of GOES-R Risk Reduction activities, was shared with M. Nguyen of Monash University to aid in her studies of the short-term variability of Katrina’s intensity as it relates to asymmetries.  Her modeling studies show that convective organization goes through distinct periods of axisymmeterization and intensification followed by periods of asymmetries and weakening or constant intensities.  She will examine this imagery for similar temporal evolution in IR asymmetries.  (J. Knaff)

Preliminary work has begun on the project entitled “Satellite Analysis of the Influence of the Gulf Stream on the Troposphere: Convective Response.”  This project is a pilot study in which Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) temperature and wind retrievals, World Wide Lightning Locator Network (WWLLN), and GOES imagery will be used to document the influence of the Gulf Stream on the troposphere.  A joint proposal was submitted by Dudley Chelton, CIOSS, Oregon State which has also been accepted.   (A. Schumacher)

Using the temperature profiles from the COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate) satellites, plots of quasigeostrophic potential vorticity (q) can be made.  Shown in Figure 1 is a plot of 300 hPa heights and q over the U.S. on 20 December 2006, as well as a cross section through the high q region over the four corners region.  Both plots show air of stratospheric origin (q > 1.5) protruding into the troposphere.  Such protrusions are often associated with midlatitude cyclones.  With this particular system, Fort Collins, CO received 21” of snow.  In order for the quasigeostropic potential vorticity to have the units of Ertel’s potential vorticity, the values were multiplied by a factor of –g(dθ/dp), where g is the acceleration of gravity, and θ is a reference-state potential temperature given by the U.S. Standard Atmosphere.  Potential vorticity derived from COSMIC soundings will be combined with geostationary data to monitor upper-tropospheric structure, such as the stratospheric intrusion depicted here. 

Figure 1.

Analysis has begun on data collected up through early September.  RUC 00-hr analyses from summer 2008 are being compared with RAOBs at 26 locations across the central U.S., looking specifically at water vapor mixing ratios from the surface to 700 mb.  The Figure 2 below shows the RUC mean mixing ratio errors for 00Z for all analyzed raob locations.  A moist bias exists near 925 mb, while a dry bias can be seen at 700 mb.  Multiple regression analysis shows that using information from surface dew point observations can correct for these biases and improve the overall absolute error.  The next step is to determine how GOES data can further improve the boundary layer moisture analyses. (D. Lindsey)

Figure 2.  RUC 00-hr analysis mean water vapor mixing ratio error (g/kg) from 26 raob locations across the central U.S. from the summer of 2008.

Imagery for the Okmok (Alaska Aleutian) volcano eruption from 12/13 July 2008 has been analyzed thru Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis.  PCIs, which extract dominant image combinations from the available GOES bands, are enhanced with RGB (Red, Green, Blue: 3-color) analysis to better show the associated clouds and ash in the images.  See Figures 3 and 4 for an explanation.  Animated loops of these PCI and RGB products are also available.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 3: PCI analysis presented in a 4-panel display: The upper-left panel is dominated by the LWIR composite (high clouds are white); the upper-right panel is dominated by the visible band; the lower-left panel is dominated by the SWIR band, showing low (white) vs. high (darker) cloud; and the lower-right panel is dominated by the split-window difference, showing mainly thin cloud and ash (dark areas).  PCI-4, which is dominated by the WV band, is not shown.

Figure 4: PCIs from Figure 3 are combined in this image using RGB (3-color) analysis.  The colors were chosen to enhance the ash cloud, with PCI-3, 2, and 5 as Red, Green, and Blue, respectively.  Clear areas in the image are deep purple, high clouds are mainly green, lower clouds are yellow, and heavily-ash-dominated cloud is orange.  Note the higher concentration of ash in the plume south of the volcano vs. the plume east of the volcano.

In monitoring recent forest fires from GOES imagery, it was noticed that one of the overnight band-2 (3.9 μm) images showed a great increase in fire signature from the previous image a half-hour earlier, and that the signature for same fire decreased as rapidly as it increased in the image a half-hour later.  The fire flare-up occurred at 0800 UTC on 30 July 2008 for the “Rich Wildland Fire” in Northern California.  The flare-up (and flare-down) is emphasized in the attached figure of the shortwave-albedo product, which is useful for enhancing imagery for the detection of fire hot spots.  Note the large increase in the number of fire-affected pixels, covering an area about 15 pixels North-South, by about 31 pixels East-West.  (The larger East-West than North-South extent is due to the approximate 2-to-1 oversampling of GOES data in the along-scan direction.)  However, the otherwise large extent of the fire signature is unlikely to be due to a rapid increase (and decrease) in the fire size alone, but must be either caused by, or accompanied by, a large increase (and decrease) in the fire temperature as well, even though only a very few (2-4) center pixels reach saturation temperature (340 K) in the images.  For this fire, the temperature increased (and again decreased) by an average of about 1 K for all the pixels in the larger fire-affected area. (D. Hillger)

The especially large area affected by the fire is speculated to be due to the broad GOES point spread function, in which any detected signal may affect pixels several fields-of-view away from the actual signal.  This effect is undetectable when the entire field is homogenous, is minimal when the field is fairly flat, but will be more obvious when the field is highly variable.  And, the effect will be most pronounced when the signal is a fire hot spot and the band in question is in the shortwave spectrum, for the same reason that fires are more easily detected in the shortwave spectrum than in the longwave spectrum.  Further analysis of this case will be undertaken to try to resolve the cause of the rapid appearance and equally-rapid disappearance of the unusually large area that is affected by the fire.  Images at 15-minute intervals will be added to the analysis, and model simulations will be made of the effect of extreme fire temperatures on GOES imagery, utilizing the known GOES point spread function.  It’s possible that this far-field-of-view effect, although thought to be an undesired artifact, may lead to a way to estimate extreme fire temperatures that are otherwise undetectable, being far hotter than the saturation temperature of band-2 data. (D. Hillger, L. Grasso, M. Sengupta, R. Brummer)

Figure 5: An explosive fire flare-up as manifest in the shortwave-albedo product which enhances the band-2 (3.9 μm) vs. band-4 (10.7 μm) temperatures.  In these half-hourly images, note the large area of dark pixels surrounding the few saturated (white) fire pixels in the center image of the top row.  The pixels in the large fire-affected area average 1 K warmer in the band-2 images, an effect that disappeared as rapidly as it appeared.

Processing of the large sector U.S. climatologies continues.  Products completed include monthly large sector composites for March. Processing has been slow due to illness. (C. Combs)

Processing of wind regime products continues.  Monthly wind regime composites from both channel 1 and channel 4 for February and March 2008 have been completed.  Combined monthly products have also been completed for February and March 2008. (C. Combs)

Preprocessing of GOES west data over the Eureka area continues.  Processing and quality control for hours not normally processed but in our DVD archive has been completed for May-Sep 1999.  Data is being pulled from the CIRA archive, which slows the processing down with additional steps.  (C. Combs)

Work continues with Becca Mazur, Treena Hartley and Mel Nordquist  from the Eureka, CA National Weather Service office.  With help from Don Hillger, we have converted sample GOES 11 images (channels 1,2 and 4) in the Eureka sector to GeoTIFFs.  We sent GeoTIFFs to Eureka to see if they can be read into their GIS system.  (C. Combs)

A new collaboration with Declan Cannon, a forecaster from the Duluth, MN National Weather Service (NWS) office has been started.  After email communications, three sample Wind Regime climatologies over Duluth for July 1998-2007 were sent.  Due to continued interest, the next step will be to set up a website to display loops of wind regime composites.  (C. Combs)

Powerpoint proposal presentations were updated, one each for GIMPAP and GOES-R, to review work during FY08.  These were presented for GIMPAP on August 5th, and for GOES-R on September 3rd. (C. Combs)

MSG data for January 2007 were obtained from an archive and sectored out Europe.  Developed and tested code that identifies snow pixels in an image, blending techniques from MODIS and SEVIRI papers using channels 0.64 μm, 0.8 μm, and 1.6 μm.  Using this information, wrote and tested code to created monthly visible backgrounds and cloud cover % composites.  Compared new code results with results from code currently used in the regional cloud climatologies over the US for the current GOES satellites.  Preliminary results look favorable. (C. Combs)

Two new hourly employees were hired.  The first one worked through the summer before heading for college, and the second one started end of August.  Both worked on the Eureka data sets

Figure 6: Cloud cover percent for Jan 2007 at 1115 UTC, using method currently used in regional cloud climatologies over continental US.  Note high cloud percent over Alps and northern Spain.

Figure 7: Cloud cover percent for Jan 2007 at 1115 UTC, using new method that identifies snow covered pixels using MSG channels 1.6 μm and 0.64 μm.  Note the cloud percent is reduced over the Alps and northern Spain.

Work on the“Kyrill” continues. This storm produced widespread wind damage over Germany and surrounding location. This storm occurred in mid January 2007. A simulation of the event was conducted with RAMS and WRF. Synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery was produced from both models. Last quarter, we obtained the community radiative transfer model, version 1.1. With the help of Paul van Delst, we can now obtain optical depths that are specific to a wide variety of satellites. In particular, we can produce synthetic Meteosat-8 imagery for this storm. (L. Grasso, D. Zupanski, M. Zupanski, I. Jankov, M. Sengputa, and R. Brummer)

The 3-4 april 2007 MCS case over the southeast United States was run again. This time the model was initialized at 00 Z 3 April 2007 as opposed to 12 Z 3 April 2007. This was done since the run initialized at 12 Z produced unfavorable results. The new run has produced better results. (L. Grasso)

As a first step at producing synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery at 0.47 µm, we approximated surface albedoes at this wavelength by reducing surface emmissivity values at 3.9 µm. The test was conducted at one time from the 23 October 2008 fire simulation. As a comparison, one synthetic image at 3.9 µm took about twenty minutes with fifteen processors; one synthetic image at 0.47 µm took 46 hours with fifteen processors. (L. Grasso and M. Sengupta)

Collaboration continues between CIRA in Fort Collins and Boulder. Efforts continue with the production of synthetic GOES-R ABI imagery from the WRF model. In addition, Isidora is helping me compile the wrf_v3.0. (L. Grasso and I. Jankov)

GOES-10 imagery over South America was analyzed for volcanic ash from the Chaitén volcano (42.5°S, 72.39°W, 962 m elevation) in Southern Chile.  The last major eruption occurred on 6 May 2008.  Figure 1 contains various image combinations over a small but still active ash plume on 30 June 2008 at 2028 UTC.  The image differences were generated by Principal Component Image (PCI) analysis, with the lower-right panel representing the longwave split-window (10.7 and 12.0 μm) difference, which is known to be one of the better image combinations to show ash plumes.  PCIs are being used to assess which band combinations/differences are the best at detecting the ash plume. These efforts at volcanic ash detection are a continuation of hazards-related GOES-R Risk Reduction activities at CIRA.  There is a potential GOES-R product in that the 12.0 μm band has been removed from the last three satellites in the current-GOES series and will not appear again until the first satellites in the GOES-R series.  GOES-10 (and GOES-11) still contain the split-window bands to generate this difference product.  Work will continue by applying RGB (3-color) analysis to the image differences to generate a product that highlights the ash plume.  The GOES-10 imagery for this product was supplied by Tim Schmit at NOAA/NESDIS/ASPB, because the low angle of GOES-10 as viewed at the CIRA ground station in Colorado causes some of the data to be noisier than data collected in Wisconsin.  (D. Hillger)

Figure 1: A four-panel display of Principal Component Images (PCIs) generated from all 5 bands of GOES-10 over the Chaitén volcano in southern Chile.  The image was taken at 2028 UTC on 30 June 2008.  The upper-left panel is a weighted-mean of all five GOES-10 bands, and the lower-right panel, which shows the ash plume best (spreading out to the northwest from the location of the volcano, marked by a red arrow and volcano name), is primarily a longwave split-window (10.7 and 12.0 μm) difference, constituting a very small portion of the signal in the 5 GOES bands.  The other panels show image features mainly associated with clouds.

McIDAS code has been written to convert Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data collected at the CIRA ground station into McIDAS format.  The CIRA data is currently stored in XPIF 2-byte binary files, with the resulting format being McIDAS AREA files.  The translation code will be made available to anyone who has access to the CIRA MSG archive.  The code allows MSG data to be available to more users at CIRA.  MSG contains several spectral bands that are similar to those that will be available on GOES-R ABI.  (D. Hillger, S. Kidder)

D. Lindsey is working with a CREST student, Melvin Cardona, on his rainfall estimation project.  In particular, Melvin is interested in using the GOES ice effective radius retrieval in his algorithm, so code was provided and we’re currently working on making it work properly.  (D. Lindsey)

Assistance was provided to Irina Gladkova and Michael Grossberg at CREST/CUNY to obtain additional Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) data for their research and development work on data compression.  Sample MSG Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) data were provided along with means to read the data, since the data is in a different format than they used previously.  (D. Hillger, M. DeMaria)

A long-neglected update of the Hazard Detection research project section of the RAMM Branch Web pages has finally been accomplished.  The update includes a link to real-time hazard detection products that are available online.  See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu.  (D. Hillger)

Assistance has been provided to Rebecca Mazur at the Eureka CA NWS office.  A flat file of McIDAS data was generated so that they can try to place a satellite image into their GIS system in order to determine marine stratus depth. In addition, GeoTIFF files were created from McIDAS files, for use in their Geographic Information System (GIS) system, in order to determine marine stratus depth.  (D. Hillger, C. Combs)

A tour of the CIRA satellite laboratory was provided for five students from CREST who visited CIRA as part of the CoRP Student Exchange Program.  (D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

S. Miller and D. Hillger provided considerable feedback on a draft of the Algorithm Working Group (AWG) Imagery/Visualization Team (I/VT) Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) for the Cloud and Moisture Imagery Product (CMIP) initially prepared by W. Wang and T. Schmit.  This document explains all the science behind the digital images of clouds and moisture that constitute basic satellite imagery and are the mainstay of all other products derived from those images.  (D. Hillger, S. Miller)

Training metrics for the quarter:

•  Teletraining:

23 VISIT teletraining sessions have been delivered.  There were 57 teletraining signups, 51 students participated.

• Learning Management System (LMS) audio playback modules:
•  LMS totals from January 2005 through September 25 2008: 
  

Registrations for VISIT Courses:  1935

Completions: 933

Definitions used in LMS metrics:
Registrations:  The number of students who either clicked on the course, or actually took the course, but did not complete the quiz or achieve a passing grade upon taking the quiz.  A student may have registered for multiple courses.
Completions:  The number of students that achieved a passing grade on a course.  A student may have completed multiple courses this way.

New teletraining sessions that debuted this quarter:

• “Utility of GOES Satellite Imagery in Forecasting / Nowcasting Severe Weather” by Dan Bikos (CIRA).  The training is accompanied by a post-session WES simulation exercise.   
• “Interpreting Satellite Signatures” by Scott Lindstrom and Scott Bachmeier (CIMSS).

New Training Proposal.

July 17, 2008 Bernie Connell and Jeff Braun had a conference call with Carvin Scott, Chief of the Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) in Alaska and Jeff Osiensky, Director of the ESSD in Alaska.  The point of this meeting was to start the development of a new training concerning Volcanic Ash (forecasting, operations, warnings, etc.).  

Ongoing development of new VISIT/SHyMet teletraining sessions:

• Development of a new training session on AWIPS OB9 satellite content, including High Density winds from the Japanese satellite and the CIRA blended TPW product (Dan Bikos)
• Development of SHyMet training topics on cloud climatology and hazard detection (Dan Bikos).
• Continuing research and gathering/producing material concerned with “The Dryline” and associated training session for the VISIT program (Jeff Braun).
• Continuing development of “Intro to Aviation Hazards/Weather” training session for the SHyMet program (Jeff Braun). 
• New development of “Volcanic Ash” training session for VISIT/SHyMet including extensive coordination with Environmental Science and Services Division (ESSD) (Jeff Braun).

Learning Management System (LMS):

• VISIT now makes use of the LMS for teletraining registration and record keeping for students.  A student hourly enters all of the students into the LMS that have attended based on an email evaluation survey that is sent out after the teletraining.

Research:

• Severe Local Storms conference – May 22, 2008 tornado outbreak in Wyoming and Colorado.  D. Lindsey (NESDIS) is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in a study focused on a satellite perspective on the May 22, 2008 tornado that affected Windsor, CO.  Title of the abstract is “An Analysis of the 22 May 2008 Windsor, Colorado, Tornado from a Satellite Perspective”.
• J. Dostalek is collaborating with J. Braun and D. Bikos in ongoing research regarding analysis of water vapor imagery in relation to “Henry’s Rule” for winter storms.

Conference presentation:

• D. Bikos attended the AMS / NWA High Plains conference in Hays, Kansas on September 4-5, 2008.  He was a co-presenter (along with Jonathan Finch – NWS Dodge City, KS) of a presentation entitled “The Colorado-Wyoming Long-Lived Tornadic Supercell of May 22, 2008”.  A publication is planned based on this presentation.

VISIT Meteorological Interpretation Blog – (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/blog/)

• Blog Statistics accumulated through September 26, 2008:
• 3716 total hits.
• There have been 28 posts within 47 categories. 
• Currently averaging about 25 hits per day.

VISIT and SHyMet Training:

The following table shows a breakdown of the metrics for each VISIT teletraining session valid April 1999 – September 25, 2008.  For a complete list and description of each VISIT session see this web-page:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visit/ts.html

 (D. Bikos, J. Braun)

SHyMet Metrics April 2006 through September 26, 2008: 

CIRA/VISIT Registered:

166 total NOAA/NWS employees/participants have registered here at CIRA (10 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course (Composed of 9 individual classes/sessions).
 
22 total Non-NOAA participants have registered here at CIRA (0 this quarter) for the SHyMet Intern Course.

SHyMet – NOAA-Learning Management System (LMS) Registered:

Overall NOAA LMS – SHyMet individual class/session breakdown through September 26, 2008 (for “online” training only). 

Total Registered All SHyMet Classes Inclusive (Since April 2006) – 2258

Total Registered All SHyMet Classes for 4th Quarter 2008 – 274

Total Completed the SHyMet Course (all 9 classes) for 4th Quarter 2008 –
12 NOAA and 0 Non-NOAA

Individual Class (SHyMet Course) Metrics – Numbers Registered:

1. Orientation:  309 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 34 this quarter.
2. GOES Intro…:  275 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 26 this quarter.
3. GOES Channel Selection…:  293 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 40 this quarter.
4. POES…:  258 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 26 this quarter.
5. GOES Sounder…:  201 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 28 this quarter.
6. High Density Winds…:  200 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 28 this quarter.
7. Cyclogenesis:  205 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 30 this quarter.
8. Severe Weather:  228 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 30 this quarter.
9. Tropical Cyclones:  289 have registered through the LMS for this session since April 1, 2006 – 32 this quarter.

A member of the VISIT/SHyMet team from CIRA is now participating in the NWS Satellite Requirements and Solution Steering Team (SST) monthly tele-conference meetings as a subject matter expert.  (B. Connell, D. Bikos, J. Braun)

Kathy-Ann Caesar, with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), visited CIRA on August 19.  CIMH is one of the WMO designated Regional Training Centers.    Kathy-Ann has been involved in the monthly Virtual Focus Group Activities and has held bi-weekly virtual briefings in the Caribbean during the Hurricane season as well.  We reviewed developments for the Virtual International Focus Group briefings as well as collaborations on regional satellite climatologies.

CIRA provided input to the development of the agenda for the WMO-sponsored Regional Training Course on the Use of Environmental Satellite Data in Meteorological Applications for RA III and RA IV.   The training took place in Argentina September 22- October 3, 2008.  CIRA prepared and delivered lectures focused on the status of GOES/POES, Introduction to Multispectral and Hyperspectral satellite data, VISITview training, and a demo on McIDAS software.  In addition, CIRA helped coordinate two sessions that linked up with the monthly international weather briefings during the first week and two sessions that linked up with the GEOSS in the Americas workshop being held in Panamá during the second week.  (B. Connell)

Participants and lecturers on the opening day of the course in Argentina. Click on photo to enlarge.

Monthly International Weather Briefings

The WMO Virtual Laboratory Task Team conducted 3 monthly English and Spanish weather briefings (for July, August, and September 2008) through VISITview using GOES and POES satellite Imagery from CIRA (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/vview/vmrmtcrso.html) and voice via Yahoo Messenger.  The September briefings were held in conjunction with the WMO Satellite Training in Argentina on September 23 and 25.  There were participants from the U.S.: CIRA, COMET, SAB at NESDIS, the International Desk at NCEP, as well as outside the U.S.: Argentina, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica, Panamá, Peru, Paraguay,  Uruguay, and Venezuela.  The participants include researchers and students as well as forecasters.  The discussions were well attended with a peak of 28 computer connections and multiple participants at many sites.  Mike Davison at NCEP International Desk started the sessions by providing an overall synoptic analysis.  Throughout the sessions, participating countries offer comments on the features of interest for their local weather.  Discussion topics included hurricane activity in the Caribbean and the threat of severe weather in South America.  

The discussions mentioned above have mainly been coordinated with the RMTC Center of Excellence in Costa Rica.  During the dry season months, Barbados has also been conducting monthly briefings for the Eastern Caribbean to stimulate discussion and collaboration for the Hurricane season.  CIRA has been assisting with the logistics of the sessions and providing imagery through the rammb server listed above.  (B. Connell)

Sharing of Imagery and Products

GOES-12 imageryfor June through August 2008 were processed for the Regional Meteorological Training Centers of Excellence (RMTCoEs) in Costa Rica and Barbados.  The archives are being used to look at cloud frequency during the rainy and dry seasons and detect local variations from year to year.  The archived imagery also provides access to examples for use in satellite focused training efforts.  The monthly cloud frequency composites for June through August 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica are presented in Figure 1. 

Figure 1.  Monthly cloud frequency composites for June, July, and August 1997-2008 by 10.7 µm temperature threshold technique for Costa Rica.

A comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June, July, August 1999-2008 for Barbados is shown in Fig. 2. 

Click on images to enlarge.

Figure 2. Comparison of cloud frequency derived by temperature threshold of 10.7 µm imagery for June, July, and August 1999-2008 for Barbados.

Imagery for Central and South America and the Caribbean have been consolidated and updated.  The RAMSDIS Online imagery can now be viewed at one location (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp).  This step was a welcome upgrade to the International Weather Briefings page (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/visitview/focus/viewgroup.html), allowing for viewing of higher resolution imagery as well as increased speed for the download of imagery. 
Look for information on our activities on the Regional Training Center web page. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/rmtc/ (B. Connell)

Outdated material in the Calibration and Validation section has been removed and new content has been added about the pending GOES-O Science Test.  See http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu.  (D. Hillger)

Hiro Gosden modified the GUI menu further on the AWIPS system and re-organized the customized CIRA menu.  Two more product buttons were added to the CIRA menu, and two previous products were combined into one product.  (H. Gosden)

Hiro Gosden successfully modified the color table for the “True Color” product that will be added to the AWIPS for the proving ground project. (H. Gosden)

Hiro Gosden is working to port the older Sounder RAMSDIS system onto a Linux box that will run its processes in the background.  The front end work to produce the product has been successfully ported over, and the work in displaying this dataset online is underway.  (H. Gosden)
 
All systems procured under IT Refresh have been configured. (D. Molenar)

A new RAMMB/CIRA AWIPS NOAAPORT server has been procured. (D. Molenar)

A group met to discuss various options for setting up a polar data server at CIRA.    RAMMB has plans to begin pulling MIRS, IASI, SSMI and ATOVS data to support hurricane research, and to support a polar data server at CIRA.  Data pulls from DDS (specifically Andy Jones and Stan Kidder’s AMSU ingest) will be coordinated to avoid duplicate ingest efforts.  Whenever possible, the existing functionality from the AMSU and DPEAS system will be utilized.  A centralized, near-realtime polar data server, with http, ftp, McIDAS server and LDM (for AWIPS feeds) access, and automated data subset archive, will be highly beneficial to research at CIRA.  This data will also be a valuable resource for blended product development, Satellite Algorithm Testbed work, and for AWIPS Proving Ground product evaluation.  The eventual goal will be to provide a robust server, RAID storage (with fail-safe backup) and a set of access routines that would be available to all CIRA and NOAA researchers and clients.  Phase I will involve the set up of a RAMMB server and RAID array to create the DDS MIRS, IASI, SSMI and ATOVS data archive.  Don’t forget NPP.  (D. Molenar, J. Knaff, D. Watson, J. Forsythe, A. Jones, S. Kidder)

To Accepted and Submitted Publications                 To Presentations

Published:

• Refereed

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, J.F., Dostalek, R. Brummer, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Synthetic Satellite Imagery for Current and Future Environmental Satellites. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 29:15, 4373.

Knaff, J.A. and R.M. Zehr, 2008:  Reply to Comments on “Reexamination of Tropical Cyclone Wind–Pressure Relationship.” Weather and Forecasting, 23:4, 762-770.

• Nonrefereed

Setvák, M., Lindsey, D.T., Novák, P., Rabin, R.M., Wang, P.K., Kerkmann, J., Radová, M., and Stástka, J., 2008: Cold-ring shaped storms in Central Europe. The 2008 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, 8-12 September, Darmstadt, Germany.

Accepted:

• Refereed 

DeMaria, M., 2008:  A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction. Monthly Weather Review.

Doesken, N.J., J.F. Weaver, and M. Osecky, 2007:  Microscale aspects of rainfall patterns as measured by a local volunteer network. National Weather Digest.

Knaff, J.A., 2008:  Revisiting the Maximum Intensity of Recurving Tropical Cyclones. International Journal of Climatology.

Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2008:  Tropical Cyclone Size Evolution. Monthly Weather Review.

Schumacher, A., M. DeMaria, J.A. Knaff, 2008: Objective Estimation of the 24-Hour Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation. Weather and Forecasting.

Setvak, M., D.T. Lindsey, R.M. Rabin, P.K. Wang, and A. Demeterova, 2008:  Possible moisture plume above a deep convective storm on 28 June 2005 in MSG-1 imagery. Weather Review .

• Nonrefereed

Brummer, R.L., M. Sengupta, L. Grasso, D. Hillger, D. Lindsey, R. DeMaria, and M. DeMaria: 2009: Synthetic satellite datasets for GOES-R ABI Bands.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., M. Davison, A. Mostek, V. Castro, and T. Whittaker, 2009:  International satellite training activities. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Connell, B.H., and L.G. Guirola, 2009:  Regional satellite climatologies for Central America from GOES. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., 2009:  Tropical cyclone applications of NPOESS and GOES-R. 5th AMS Annual Symposium on Future Operational Environmental Satellite Systems – NPOESS and GOES-R, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

DeMaria, M., and R. DeMaria, 2009:  Applications of lightning observations to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, R.L. Brummer, R. DeMaria, and D.W. Hillger, 2009: Synthetic GOES-R imagery of fires at 3.9 µm. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Guch, I., S.Q. Kidder, P. Menzel, R. Ferraro, S. Ackerman, D. Khanbilvardi, T. Strub, B. Vant Hull, R. Hudson, and M. DeMaria, 2009: Collaborative training efforts at the NESDIS Cooperative Institutes. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Gurka, J., A. Mostek, T.J. Schmit, S.D Miller, A. Bachmeier, M. DeMaria, 2009:  GOES-R Proving Ground Program.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., M. DeMaria, and R.L. Brummer, 2009: GOES-R ABI product development.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Hillger, D.W., and G. Toth, 2008: Un-manned satellites on postage stamps 28: The A-1 satellite, Astrophile, 53(1), (January/February), 37-39.

Knaff, J.A., 2009:  Propagating patterns in 6.7 µm imagery in re-intensifying tropical-to-extratropical cyclone transitions.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Miller, S.D., M. DeMaria, D.A. Molenar, D.W. Hillger, E. Szokes, R.L. Brummer, A. Kuciauskas, F. Turk, H. Gosden, 2009:  Contributions from CIRA to the GOES-R Satellite Proving Ground. 16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Mostek, A., M. DeMaria, J. Gurka, T.J. Schmit, 2009:  NOAA Satellite Training.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Sengupta, M., L.D. Grasso, R.L. Brummer, and D.W. Hillger, 2009:  Improving fire detection: Current GOES to GOES-R.  16th AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography, 11-15 January, Phoenix, AZ.

Submitted:

• Refereed

Azorin-Molina, C., B.H. Connell, R. Baena-Calatrava, 2008:  Sea Breeze Convergence Zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean area and the isle of Mallorca (Spain). Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Courtney, J., and J.A. Knaff, 2008:  Adapting the Knaff and Zehr Pressure-Wind Relationship for operational use in Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres.  Australian Meteorological Magazine.

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, and M. DeMaria, 2008:  Comparison between Observed and Synthetic 6.5 and 10.7 µm GOES-12 Imagery of Thunderstorms. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 

Hillger, D.W., J.F. Schmit, 2008: The GOES-13 Science Test. A Synopsis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Lindsey, D.T., M. Fromm, 2008:  Evidence of the cloud lifetime effect from wildfire-induced thunderstorms.  Geophysical Research Letters.

Zupanski, M., D. Zupanski, S. J. Fletcher, M. DeMaria, and R. Dumais, 2008: Ensemble data assimilation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model: The Hurricane Katrina case. J. Geophys. Res.

Zupanski D., 2008: Information measures in ensemble data assimilation. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

Zupanski M., 2008: Theoretical and practical issues of ensemble data assimilation in weather and climate. Chapter in the book entitled “Data Assimilation for Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Hydrologic Applications,” S. K. Park, Editor.

• Nonrefereed    

Grasso, L.D., M. Sengupta, D.W. Hillger, and R.L. Brummer, 2008: GOES-R Synthetic Imagery and Fire Detection, CIRA Newsletter, Fall 2008.

Presentations:

Noh, Y.J., 2008:  Combing Satellite and Model Information for Snow Detection.  CoRP 5th Annual Science Symposium, 11-14 August, CIOSS, Corvallis, OR.

Lazzara, M.A., S.A. Ackerman, and D.W. Hillger, 2008: Antarctic fog depiction via satellite analysis. Antarctic Meteorological Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting Workshop, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 9-12 June, Madison WI.

Schumacher, A.S., 2008: Combining Model/Satellite Information for Cyclone Forecasts. CoRP 5th Annual Science Symposium, 11-14 August, CIOSS, Corvallis, OR.

Schumacher, A.S., 2008:  Hazard Response and Preparedness of Pet Care Professionals/Utilization of Resources by Pet Care Professionals during a Natural Disaster.  Natural Hazards Center Quick Response Grant.  10-13 September, New Orleans, LA.

Seaman, C., 2008:  Assimilation of GOES Imager and Sounder Data into the RAMS Model.  CoRP 5th Annual Science Symposium, 11-14 August, CIOSS, Corvallis, OR.

Kathy-Ann Caesar, with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), visited CIRA on August 19. 

Dudley Chelton, CIOSS, Oregon State University, visited CIRA on September 26 to meet with A. Schumacher, J. Dostalek, B. McNoldy (CSU) and R. DeMaria regarding planning for joint proposals involving using AMSU wind retrievals to determine the influence of the Gulf Stream on the Troposphere via convective response.

D. Lindsey received a PhD degree from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. (D. Lindsey)

A NOAA Disability Awareness Training video entitled “The 10 Commandments of Communicating with People with Disabilities” was viewed.  (D. Hillger, D. Molenar, D. Lindsey, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, H. Gosden, B. Connell, C. Combs, K. Fryer)

A NOAA Disability Awareness Training video entitled “Beyond Sexual Harassment” was viewed.  (M. DeMaria, J. Knaff, D. Hillger)